Billboard Hot 100: 06/26/2021

[ontopofthis]

Lol, I was half joking when I stated that Billboard was going to file injunctions against that Twitter account

[thegreatdivine]

Jun 16, 2021 8:15:22 GMT -5 Enigma. said:

Jun 16, 2021 7:59:10 GMT -5 thegreatdivine said:

What's Next sounds like 10,000 nails scratching across a concrete pavement. The beat is too jarring and the hook isn't nearly as catchy as the Wants and Needs hook.

This is reminding me of when Drake tried to push Free Smoke as a single off More Life and people rejected it so swiftly. Luckily, back then, he knew to focus on Passionfruit instead, which was the song people were supporting organically lol.

Does the way he doesn't care about W&N indicate a new single very soon?

I'd say yes. Possibly by the end of this month or sometime next month.

[Enigma.]

Jun 16, 2021 8:24:46 GMT -5 ontopofthis said:

Lol, I was half joking when I stated that Billboard was going to file injunctions against that Twitter account

It's not the Twitter I think? It's their website.

[phieaglesfan712]

My guess is that Drake will probably wait until the BTS hoopla dies down before releasing another single. I would be surprised if we get anything from Drake before the fall.

[gikem]

Jun 16, 2021 8:38:24 GMT -5 Enigma. said:

Jun 16, 2021 8:24:46 GMT -5 ontopofthis said:

Lol, I was half joking when I stated that Billboard was going to file injunctions against that Twitter account

It's not the Twitter I think? It's their website.

It was a combination of the two. The website was the main reason the takedown ultimately happened, but as part of the cease and desist order, TOTC was also asked to significantly limit what they could say on their Twitter account. The account is voluntarily deactivated for the time being; Billboard did not necessarily ask them to take that down.

[rimetm]

Jun 15, 2021 10:44:01 GMT -5 Gary said:

Is there a way to verify the claims on this site that sales of 138,000 is purchased by substantially less than 138K people?

Naturally some of that is each fan buys one copy of each remix but what about multiple versions of the same song? On average how many does each person in the fanbase buy?

A bit late on the followup, but thanks to an account that keeps track of D2C order numbers (Army_Connect on Twitter), we do have a solid basis for estimating the quantity of people buying the total sales. In this case, in the third tracking week, Butter received 13.9k orders, which, presuming the vast majority of orders were valid, indicates said number of people ordering. Based off estimates of main digital outlet sales, those 13.9k orders accounted for ~110.9k of the sales (ordinarily this part would be more precise since it would be solved from "[Hot 100 sales figure] - ([Global 200 sales figure] - [Global Ex. US sales figure])" but Butter lost the Global 200 crown). Of the approximately 27.5k sales from main digital outlets, based on proportional data, approximately 9.1k sales were for the main (and top selling) version. It's no secret that most of the sales for the remixes/instrumental are carry-ons from people buying the main version, but let's be generous and say 40% of these other sales were from people not buying the main version since 2 of the 4 were new. That brings in 7.4k.

So, in total, with 13.9k webstore order people, 9.1k general store people, and 7.4k general store addon people, optimistically (especially because I suspect I'm overestimating the latter category), there were 30.4k people accounting for 138.4k sales, or an overall average of 4.6 sales per person.

[Rose "Payola" Nylund]

Hmmmm - so if we cut down the sales totals to a quarter of the posted number, where does that place the single?

And in fairness, is this data available for other singles in the top 10 of this week’s hot 100? Or are the sales totals of those singles not enough to make a difference?

[dremolus - solarpunk]

So 30.4K overtake the general public and decide what the number one song is. In comparison, if we divide the last week streams for good 4 u by 4.6 (assuming each person streamed g4u the same number of times one person could've bought Butter), we have 4,497,432.6 people. 30.4K beat the voices of about 4.5M people.

ARMY stans, tell me how this is fair

[Gary]

Sounds like you guys should just read the streaming chart to get your number one and ignore the Hot 100, the chart exists and is widely available and published by Billboard

Good 4 U is #1 on that chart and Butter is #19

[Enigma.]

Or, perhaps Billboard should put less weight on sales, how about that as an idea.

[rimetm]

Jun 16, 2021 9:01:37 GMT -5 Rose "Payola" Nylund said:

Hmmmm - so if we cut down the sales totals to a quarter of the posted number, where does that place the single?

And in fairness, is this data available for other singles in the top 10 of this week’s hot 100? Or are the sales totals of those singles not enough to make a difference?

The thing is that most acts don't even have a webstore listing for their single. Going through them one-by-one:

Good 4 U: Had a webstore listing I believe during its first 3 weeks, but based on Global 200 statistics sold a negligible quantity through it.
Levitating: Had a webstore listing for the DaBaby remix during its campaign, but appears to have been taken down the week after. In weeks outside of the campaign or a discount emphasis, versions aside from the DaBaby remix sell a negligible quantity of copies on main digital outlets, as doing proportion extrapolation on the DaBaby remix (which is the only one in the top 100 currently) gets one close to the estimated totals.
Peaches: Has a webstore listing for the remix. The remix sold somewhere between 50-60% of Peaches' total this past tracking week, but the webstore listing appears to have had a negligible influence (this has been a pattern for Republic's D2C offerings). That said, with how the remix dipped off the sales charts rather rapidly after the tracking week ended, I would attribute a high quantity of its sales to people buying for chart purposes. Of its approximately 8k sales, losing 4-4.5k of them would likely flip its race with the below but that would be the extent of things.
Leave the Door Open: Has a webstore listing for the main and live versions along with an (out-of-stock) CD offering. Like Levitating, however, proportion extrapolation indicates that the main version on main digital outlets renders other sales negligible.
Save Your Tears: Had a webstore listing for, like, a day on the week of the remix's release (again, fitting pattern for Weeknd's campaigns) but it's long-gone now. Sales seem to be split 70-30 in favor of the remix, though the pace for the original has remained gradual over the weeks after the remix's launch which indicates to me that it's likely mostly individual buyers as opposed to people buying both. Of the 7k or so total sales for the week, at most 1k could go as from the same buyer, likely under 500. This would flip its race with the below potentially, but no further.
Kiss Me More: Has a webstore listing, but is currently buried by Planet Her preorders. As expected, proportion extrapolation indicates the main digital outlet listing renders it negligible.
Astronaut in the Ocean: Lacks a webstore listing. The remix and clean listing have significant sales on main digital outlets, but...Masked Wolf lacks stans. If anything, seeing how he's been getting ratio'd on Twitter when it comes to announcing his followup single, he basically only has antis. As such, I doubt there's a significant contingent buying multiple versions in order to game the charts.
Deja Vu: Lacks a webstore listing, clean version isn't selling significantly, nothing much to say here.
Yonaguni: Lacks a webstore listing, doesn't even have a clean version, definitely nothing to say here.

So back to the core question of "where would Butter go in this scenario", it would be sparring somewhere inbetween Astronaut in the Ocean and Yonaguni with the 30,000 (4.6 divisor) - 35,000 (4.0 divisor) sales it would be cut down to.

[shayonce]

this is not even just about sales, but artist store sales. huge difference.
those artists didn't sold digital single on website before, but started to doing it after 1 artist did it successfully.
website single download sales only exist to manipulate Billboard Hot 100 chart.

[Baby Yoda Hot100Fan]

kworb's Billboard Radio Songs Estimates 2021/06/16

1(=) Bruno Mars, Anderson .Paak & Silk Sonic - Leave The Door Open 106.75(-1.17)

2(=) Justin Bieber - Peaches (feat. Daniel Caesar & GIVĒON) 102.04(-2.50) -
3(=) Dua Lipa - Levitating (feat. DaBaby) 98.19(+0.43)
4(=) The Weeknd & Ariana Grande - Save Your Tears (Remix) 72.56(-0.44)
5(+1) Doja Cat - Kiss Me More (feat. SZA) 67.34(+1.45)
6(-1) The Kid LAROI - WITHOUT YOU 67.03(-0.33)
7(=) Lil Nas X - MONTERO (Call Me By Your Name) 63.49(+1.20)
8(=) Ariana Grande - pov 56.96(+0.10)
9(=) Maroon 5 & Megan Thee Stallion - Beautiful Mistakes 54.40(+0.18)
10(=) Luke Combs - Forever After All 52.82(-0.28)

16(+1) Olivia Rodrigo - deja vu 41.84(+1.31)

21(+2) Olivia Rodrigo - good 4 u 37.33(+1.75)

25(+2) GIVĒON - Heartbreak Anniversary 35.35(+0.88)

41(+1) Moneybagg Yo - Time Today 26.35(+0.62)

42(+4) Chase Rice - Drinkin' Beer. Talkin' God. Amen. (feat. Florida Georgia Line) 25.93(+0.80)

57(+6) Polo G - RAPSTAR 23.02(+0.74)

-(-) Roddy Ricch - Late At Night 11.51(+1.12)

-(-) Bad Bunny - Yonaguni 3.90(+1.19) +

[jenglisbe]

Jun 16, 2021 9:08:09 GMT -5 dremolus - solarpunk said:

So 30.4K overtake the general public and decide what the number one song is. In comparison, if we divide the last week streams for good 4 u by 4.6 (assuming each person streamed g4u the same number of times one person could've bought Butter), we have 4,497,432.6 people. 30.4K beat the voices of about 4.5M people.

ARMY stans, tell me how this is fair

I agree with this general point, but I also think a lot of people streamed "g4u" more than 4.6 times.

[Lost In Musical Reverie]

Jun 16, 2021 9:52:56 GMT -5 jenglisbe said:

Jun 16, 2021 9:08:09 GMT -5 dremolus - solarpunk said:

So 30.4K overtake the general public and decide what the number one song is. In comparison, if we divide the last week streams for good 4 u by 4.6 (assuming each person streamed g4u the same number of times one person could've bought Butter), we have 4,497,432.6 people. 30.4K beat the voices of about 4.5M people.

ARMY stans, tell me how this is fair

I agree with this general point, but I also think a lot of people streamed "g4u" more than 4.6 times.

There is a difference between streaming a song several times and buying it several times, though. While mass streaming campaigns exist, the person still has to actively listen to the product, and even casual listeners might stream a song 4+ times per week depending on their enjoyment of the tune. Meanwhile, mass buying is exclusively for hardcore stans, and it baffles me some people are willing to spend so much on physical copies of the same single.

[Gary]

The 4.6 might not be 4.6 copies of the same version. People may have bought 1 copy of each remix as well


lots of remixes out there, all remixes together get added to the sales total

[Rose "Payola" Nylund]

Jun 16, 2021 9:52:56 GMT -5 jenglisbe said:

Jun 16, 2021 9:08:09 GMT -5 dremolus - solarpunk said:

So 30.4K overtake the general public and decide what the number one song is. In comparison, if we divide the last week streams for good 4 u by 4.6 (assuming each person streamed g4u the same number of times one person could've bought Butter), we have 4,497,432.6 people. 30.4K beat the voices of about 4.5M people.

ARMY stans, tell me how this is fair

I agree with this general point, but I also think a lot of people streamed "g4u" more than 4.6 times.

I think streams should be counted per person (or per account might be more realistic) within a tracking week (or once per day) rather than per play. I’m not sure how much of an impact repeated plays have but I don’t think it’s really realistic to someone playing a song 100x a week has more influence on popularity than a song played 2x by someone. In this case, both people played the song. Different people have different listening habits and routines.

[phieaglesfan712]

Jun 16, 2021 9:37:33 GMT -5 Gary said:

Sounds like you guys should just read the streaming chart to get your number one and ignore the Hot 100, the chart exists and is widely available and published by Billboard

Good 4 U is #1 on that chart and Butter is #19

Can you post the radio, streaming, and sales charts? That would be very helpful for me.

[Deleted]

Jun 16, 2021 9:37:33 GMT -5 Gary said:

Sounds like you guys should just read the streaming chart to get your number one and ignore the Hot 100, the chart exists and is widely available and published by Billboard

Good 4 U is #1 on that chart and Butter is #19

Streaming Songs is paywalled outside of the top 3. I know you know this, Gary.

[thabb]

Streaming services have methods in place to prevent mass streaming anyway. Did you guys forget about the amount of filtered play talk from Rain on Me, Butter, Dynamite, etc? Those situations pertained to Spotify but I'm sure Apple Music, Amazon Music, YouTube, etc all do similar things to prevent people who stream songs 50 times a day from having outsized impact on their data.

[rimetm]

Jun 16, 2021 10:03:48 GMT -5 Gary said:

The 4.6 might not be 4.6 copies of the same version. People may have bought 1 copy of each remix as well


lots of remixes out there, all remixes together get added to the sales total

My followup post addresses that: yes, people buying multiple versions in one week should only be able to contribute one sale’s worth of points and that’s why Peaches and Save Your Tears last tracking week would suffer noticeable losses in that standard. Barring concerted fan campaigns like we’re seeing with Butter or in the recent past with Levitating and Leave the Door Open, the data supports the notion that your average consumer is only going to buy one version of the song, usually the one already high on the live sales chart, so a song merely having remixes available doesn’t automatically mean its unique buyer count in the week would be significantly smaller.

[thegreatdivine]

Jun 16, 2021 8:41:43 GMT -5 phieaglesfan712 said:

My guess is that Drake will probably wait until the BTS hoopla dies down before releasing another single. I would be surprised if we get anything from Drake before the fall.

I doubt he cares about how competitive the charts will or won't be before he drops lol. He'll probably announce his next single a day or a few hours before it's released and it'll do whatever it'll do and that'll be that, exactly the same way he's treated all his singles up until now.

[thegreatdivine]

Jun 16, 2021 10:28:02 GMT -5 @antigonerising said:

Jun 16, 2021 9:37:33 GMT -5 Gary said:

Sounds like you guys should just read the streaming chart to get your number one and ignore the Hot 100, the chart exists and is widely available and published by Billboard

Good 4 U is #1 on that chart and Butter is #19

Streaming Songs is paywalled outside of the top 3. I know you know this, Gary.

Doesn't Gary have a subscription with Billboard? It probably skipped his mind that not everyone does.

[Deleted]

Jun 16, 2021 10:41:20 GMT -5 thegreatdivine said:

Jun 16, 2021 10:28:02 GMT -5 @antigonerising said:

Streaming Songs is paywalled outside of the top 3. I know you know this, Gary.

Doesn't Gary have a subscription with Billboard? It probably skipped his mind that not everyone does.

Oh, true. He has mentioned having one before I think. The f5 trick still works too, but just the fact one has to use a trick to see the chart lets you know that info is not intended to be widely used or disseminated.

I stand by my original assertion that TOTC should launch their own chart. BB basically deaded all the things that made TOTC stand out from other predictors.

[dremolus - solarpunk]

Jun 16, 2021 9:37:33 GMT -5 Gary said:

Sounds like you guys should just read the streaming chart to get your number one and ignore the Hot 100, the chart exists and is widely available and published by Billboard

Good 4 U is #1 on that chart and Butter is #19

Shut the fuck up, shut the fuck up (you, uh-huh)
Shut the fuck up, shut the fuck up
Shut the fuck up, shut the fuck up (you, I see you)
Shut the fuck up
Have you ever thought about taping your big mouth shut?
'Cause I have, many times, many times

[Ｓｏｕｎｄｃｌ🕤ｃｋ]

Jun 16, 2021 9:47:47 GMT -5 Baby Yoda Hot100Fan said:

kworb's Billboard Radio Songs Estimates 2021/06/16

16(+1) Olivia Rodrigo - deja vu 41.84(+1.31)

21(+2) Olivia Rodrigo - good 4 u 37.33(+1.75)

you love to see it

[dremolus - solarpunk]

In other, more positive news, new Tyler the Creator is out

[Gary]

- If streams should determine the #1 song - the streaming chart exists - it has the #1 that everyone here wants
- Yes I do have a subscription and am not fully aware of what is 'paywalled' and what is not - my bad -sorry

Historically - if the magazine has felt the current chart setup is not accurately representative of the market they will adapt - albeit not as fast as most here would want of course.

Just a theory that if they exclude artist "stores" and not other "stores" they would have to decide what is an accurate representation of what is left of the sales market. If you exclude one store and not another - they would need agreement with their clients (labels & industry execs - not fans) on what the best way to "improve" the formula is to get an better representation of popularity.

Although anything is possible: Catering to fans is not something I have ever seen them do - so I would not get your hopes up

[dremolus - solarpunk]

If they exclude all artist stores for singles not just BTS, that would be fair for everyone

[code]

With help from artists like Cardi B, a new chart would take off faster than people think