Will Rihanna’s comeback underperform?

[degen]

I’m not gonna lie I think I think there’s a possibility Rihanna can under perform. We have the music video in the bag so it’s looking like just weeks away from a single drop. My thing is, Rihanna has never debut at #1, so are we setting the bar for her to do so now?

I think there’s a good chance she can debut at #1 if the song is good. However, if it’s underwhelming I can see it having a debut like Ed Sheeran. Somewhere in the top ten and lingering around for a few weeks. But the problem is the media would highlight that as an underperformance after 5 years of waiting. Her last several lead singles took over a month to hit #1 because of strong radio support. So there’s also that possibility. Or the possibiiity that it lingers around for a few weeks and falls off. But is radio here for Rihanna now, especially if she’s releasing an urban leaning single which is looking likely.

Thoughts? What’s the bar you are setting for her?

[elementd5]

Unless it’s horrible, this is about to smash. Everyone wants this song/album.

[leonagwen]

She will do fine on streaming and sales but who knows about radio?

[Au$tin]

Unless it's literally just audio of her shitting on the toilet, it's going to be huge out of the gate. I can't fathom that not happening.

But the quality of the song will determine whether or not it will have any longevity and impact. And that simply is not something we can predict.

[Normi]

^ Lmao that would probably still go Top 10 tbh
Yeah, this can't really be predicted because as others have already mentioned the quality has to be there
But I think Rih will definitely deliver, she is aware that this comeback is the most important in her (musical) career and will pull all the strings to release quality music

[wjr15]

Her lead single will most likely be huge and have a really high debut (maybe #1), the real question will be longevity. The massive hype will give her a good first/second week but she’ll need a good quality song to stay charting for many weeks.

[Choco]

It will get interest but... I do feel like the huge ass break means it's not guaranteed to be a big deal outside of curiosity unless it's really a killer track. I think she can deliver, but she has missed the mark (commercially) before with her leads ("Russian Roulette").

I'm excited to hear what Rihanna wants her music to be nowadays regardless of commercial performance. But I also selfishly want her to get her ass back on track to beat Mariah in terms of #1 hits like she was fated to be had she kept up some sort of consistent music release schedule.

[trustypepper]

She is one of the few artists who can pull off this long of a break, imo. I just hope this single is worth the wait. She’s almost never disappointed me throughout her legendary career so I’m not worried.

[Mazo]

She will debut at #1 without a doubt. Its too easy to do so and she's too big an act not to.

[Deleted]

I think she will flop massively, because she has been away too long. She will do great in Europe though, but in US she has to start almost from zero. There is a generation who might not even recognize the name. Another problem is the style, there is no favorite musical style in the top of the charts right now. So Urban leaning tracks might not work, also pure europop is out. So it has to be in the middle of genres with strong hook, just prefect pop song, so she cannot do both Pop and Urban or there has to be a dual release. Anyway, I am not sure, she has the desire to push really strong the marketing, I am not sure that getting number ones is her priority in this stage of her life. She'll probably going to plan family after this album.

[Enigma.]

Jul 18, 2021 2:34:02 GMT -5 Mazo said:

She will debut at #1 without a doubt. Its too easy to do so and she's too big an act not to.

Well, Post Malone is currently missing top ten with his new single... But for Rihanna the hype will be too huge so I'd say she'll be #1 if the competition is not too hard *cough* fake purchases by BTS stans *cough*

[Dreams]

Frankly, I wouldn't be surprised if, beyond reaching #1 with the lead single (which I would think is almost a given), she relatively flopped overall. She debuted in 2005, and even though she's young IRL, she's pretty much a dinosaur for kids these days.

[trustypepper]

Jul 18, 2021 2:34:51 GMT -5 @sigur said:

I think she will flop massively, because she has been away too long. She will do great in Europe though, but in US she has to start almost from zero. There is a generation who might not even recognize the name. Another problem is the style, there is no favorite musical style in the top of the charts right now. So Urban leaning tracks might not work, also pure europop is out. So it has to be in the middle of genres with strong hook, just prefect pop song, so she cannot do both Pop and Urban or there has to be a dual release. Anyway, I am not sure, she has the desire to push really strong the marketing, I am not sure that getting number ones is her priority in this stage of her life. She'll probably going to plan family after this album.

Definitely don’t agree that she’s starting from almost zero. She’s still a massive name even among the younger crowd and her legacy streaming remains strong. I do agree that the material has to be strong though.

[dremolus - solarpunk]

Jul 18, 2021 2:34:51 GMT -5 @sigur said:

I think she will flop massively, because she has been away too long. She will do great in Europe though, but in US she has to start almost from zero. There is a generation who might not even recognize the name. Another problem is the style, there is no favorite musical style in the top of the charts right now. So Urban leaning tracks might not work, also pure europop is out. So it has to be in the middle of genres with strong hook, just prefect pop song, so she cannot do both Pop and Urban or there has to be a dual release. Anyway, I am not sure, she has the desire to push really strong the marketing, I am not sure that getting number ones is her priority in this stage of her life. She'll probably going to plan family after this album.

dafuq is this bs?

[Au$tin]

Jul 18, 2021 2:34:51 GMT -5 @sigur said:

in US she has to start almost from zero. There is a generation who might not even recognize the name.

I think you're confusing Rihanna with... Literally anyone else.

[dremolus - solarpunk]

Jul 19, 2021 2:39:55 GMT -5 Au$tin said:

Jul 18, 2021 2:34:51 GMT -5 @sigur said:

in US she has to start almost from zero. There is a generation who might not even recognize the name.

I think you're confusing Rihanna with... Literally anyone else.

I mean he's not wrong though. Newborns to 3 year-olds don't know who Rihanna is. That is indeed a generation

[Devil Marlena Nylund]

I think we’ll be surprised. It’s been long enough since her last album that she could be hit or miss with streaming, particularly from younger audiences who have established their own favs from the crop of new artists to emerge in the last 2-3 years. Obviously fans of 2000s-wary 2010s music will check and stream her but I don’t think Rihanna will dominate streams just because there’s hype. She also won’t dominate radio just because she used to either. I could see her having an explosive debut but followed by a quick and consistent drop.

The exception of course being if Rihanna can appeal to younger music fans by putting out something super in-the-moment and trendy - and that’s something I think she can do. Right now, Rihanna is the epitome of “cool” but she also has the track record to back her up. As long as whatever she does doesn’t come off too try-hard, she should succeed. But doing so might also work against winning radio over. With Anti, we saw that she isn’t the radio staple she always was and that was 5-6 years ago.

[die Lotterie]

I honestly think the biggest threat to the success of Rihanna's next era is Rihanna herself. I completely see her only promoting/pushing the lead (which already has a good chance of hitting #1) and then becoming completely disinterested afterwards and going back to whatever it is that she does. I don't think something with similar legs to Chromatica is that far fetched.

[groovy]

She's definitely gonna do more than fine. Although at the end of the day, it really depends on how the lead single would sound like.

If it's catchy then it's going #1 for sure. But if it's more of a chill Urban track in the vein of her last PARTYNEXTDOOR collaboration or any of ANTI album tracks then it might be off to a slow start but having a good longevity.

[Deleted]

I can see the lead being a big hit but lacking longevity and the follow-up singles underperforming compared to even how she performed with the last album.. but that's not necessarily bad 16+ years into her career. The focus at this stage of her career should really be on cementing her status as a "legacy" act so that at least some of her hits endure and she can continue to do decent touring numbers. She's entitled to take several years off and disappear from the public eye given how hard she worked for a decade, but I can also see it doing to her career what disappearing for several years did to Janet's career (where an entire generation basically doesn't even know who she is despite her being massive for an extended period of time in the not too distant past).

[leoapp]

To be honest, it'd be interesting to see how both Rihanna and Adele's comebacks fare...

[chanman]

Jul 13, 2021 22:51:18 GMT -5 degen said:

I’m not gonna lie I think I think there’s a possibility Rihanna can under perform. We have the music video in the bag so it’s looking like just weeks away from a single drop. My thing is, Rihanna has never debut at #1, so are we setting the bar for her to do so now?

I think there’s a good chance she can debut at #1 if the song is good. However, if it’s underwhelming I can see it having a debut like Ed Sheeran. Somewhere in the top ten and lingering around for a few weeks. But the problem is the media would highlight that as an underperformance after 5 years of waiting. Her last several lead singles took over a month to hit #1 because of strong radio support. So there’s also that possibility. Or the possibility that it lingers around for a few weeks and falls off. But is radio here for Rihanna now, especially if she’s releasing an urban leaning single which is looking likely.

Thoughts? What’s the bar you are setting for her?

Underwhelming like Ed Sheeran? He seems to be doing well in the top 10 with his comeback at the moment. That category fits better for artists with lead singles falling outside their usual top 10 presence. Eventually all artists underwhelm at some point in their career.

It's tricky to assess where Rihanna could fit in on the Hot 100, as younger kids who weren't aware of her style some years aback, have grown up. I'm also guessing that if her music has not evolved at all or if production is poor.. the comeback could be weak as in how Lorde did on the charts.

It might be a case like in Jonas Brothers where it debuts at #1 (a surprise return) or does not debut #1 but gets there in the weeks after (as Radio gets use to Rihanna once more on the airwaves). I am curious to see how it will do and I hope for the best......

[degen]

Jul 25, 2021 15:31:14 GMT -5 chanman said:

Jul 13, 2021 22:51:18 GMT -5 degen said:

I’m not gonna lie I think I think there’s a possibility Rihanna can under perform. We have the music video in the bag so it’s looking like just weeks away from a single drop. My thing is, Rihanna has never debut at #1, so are we setting the bar for her to do so now?

I think there’s a good chance she can debut at #1 if the song is good. However, if it’s underwhelming I can see it having a debut like Ed Sheeran. Somewhere in the top ten and lingering around for a few weeks. But the problem is the media would highlight that as an underperformance after 5 years of waiting. Her last several lead singles took over a month to hit #1 because of strong radio support. So there’s also that possibility. Or the possibility that it lingers around for a few weeks and falls off. But is radio here for Rihanna now, especially if she’s releasing an urban leaning single which is looking likely.

Thoughts? What’s the bar you are setting for her?

Underwhelming like Ed Sheeran? He seems to be doing well in the top 10 with his comeback at the moment. That category fits better for artists with lead singles falling outside their usual top 10 presence. Eventually all artists underwhelm at some point in their career.

It's tricky to assess where Rihanna could fit in on the Hot 100, as younger kids who weren't aware of her style some years aback, have grown up. I'm also guessing that if her music has not evolved at all or if production is poor.. the comeback could be weak as in how Lorde did on the charts.

It might be a case like in Jonas Brothers where it debuts at #1 (a surprise return) or does not debut #1 but gets there in the weeks after (as Radio gets use to Rihanna once more on the airwaves). I am curious to see how it will do and I hope for the best......

Of course Ed is not flopping and is doing “just fine.” But the single does sort of feel like it’s non-eventful, especially in the US. That may be a different case in Europe or wherever else. Now compare that to the hype of “Shape of You” and “Perfect,” it might seem underwhelming. But I agree, artists don’t always stay on top. I feel like Bieber suffered the same fate with his “Changes” era, dropping a bunch of singles that were hits on paper, but failed to generate the type of hype he had during his “Purpose” era. I think with “Peaches” he changed the course a little, but certainly he’s no longer at his commercial peak.

For Rihanna it’s going to be interesting because she’s only technically had 1 studio album during the streaming era, and it did very well. But her commercial peak was in the early 2010s during the peak of digital sales, so we aren’t really sure how to measure her next project.

[mkarns]

Hopefully it will do well, but if it underperforms at least we needn't feel sorry for her financially, as her recent second career as a businesswoman has elevated her net worth to $1.7 billion as per Forbes, which would make her the world's second richest female entertainer, behind Oprah--and mostly from makeup rather than music.

[HamedM1 💔]

She has left us all starving, she will succeed otherwise we might just be giving her reasons to continue being a businesswoman forever.

[Dylan :)]

It's so hard to predict and depends I think on the type of music she releases. Part of me wouldn't be surprised if it didn't do too well, especially longevity wise. On the Hot 100 that is!

She hasn't had a hit song since 2017. Streaming has grown a lot since then but how did she perform on streaming in 2016/2017?

[fearlessarrow]

Rihanna be like "I can't underperform if I don't release anything" lol

[Hefty Hanna]

I don't see it underperforming.

[dbhmr]

Cop-out answer but I don't think there's a performance that would surprise me. If she releases great music, watching it connect with a few big, hit singles wouldn't surprise me because she's Rihanna and maybe the only act of this generation that has been effortlessly, perennially cool.

But it's been a long break, pop music is in a strange place rn, and she's "older" by pop star standards. So a big first few weeks followed by any level of flopping wouldn't surprise me either, and probably not bother her in the slightest.

[The Black Bird]

I'd be VERY surprised if her next lead single doesn't debut at #1 tbh. For a star of her caliber it's not even that hard right now.

But, yes, I can't imagine her being bothered enough to promote anything beyond the first single. Maybe she's releasing a surprise album? A visual project a la Beyonce?