𝓲𝓽'𝓼.𝓰𝓿
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Post by 𝓲𝓽'𝓼.𝓰𝓿 on May 3, 2022 7:09:03 GMT -5
At this point, "We Don't Talk About Bruno" would definitely wait on a miracle (pun intended) if it wants to barely clinch a YE Top 20 spot because it is likely it would be in the #21-#25 range (though I won't be surprised if it ends up at #21, as that number tend to place movie soundtracks like Cups, Let It Go, and Heathens)
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Post by nathanalbright on May 3, 2022 9:37:27 GMT -5
It seems like it will get its 20 weeks and then be gone.
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Groovy
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Post by Groovy on May 3, 2022 11:57:10 GMT -5
I guess I'll join in on this too. Locks
Easy on Me - Adele Cold Heart - Elton John & Dua Lipa Shivers - Ed Sheeran One Right Now - Post Malone & The Weeknd Bad Habits - Ed Sheeran Stay - The Kid Laroi & Justin Bieber Industry Baby - Lil Nas X feat. Jack Harlow Heat Waves - Glass Animals Smokin' Out the Window - Silk Sonic All I Want for Christmas Is You - Mariah Carey Has a good shotMeet Me at Our Spot - The Anxiety, Willow & Tyler Cole Need to Know - Doja Cat Better Days - Neiked, Mae Muller & Polo G Ghost - Justin Bieber Happier Than Ever - Billie Eilish
Essence - Wizkid feat. Tems & Justin Bieber Could make itOverpass Graffiti - Ed SheeranFancy Like - Walker Hayes Thats What I Want - Lil Nas X Good 4 U - Olivia Rodrigo Kiss Me More - Doja Cat feat. SZA Darkhorse candidatesDoin' This - Luke Combs Big Energy - Latto Bite Me - Avril LavigneAll Too Well/ Enchanted - Taylor Swift You Should Probably Leave/ Cold - Chris Stapleton My Universe - Coldplay & BTS Some song off of Still Over ItSongs that have an outside chanceWay 2 Sexy - Drake feat. Future & Young ThugLove Nwantiti - CKay I did a good job on these, I want to do a halfway prediction now. LocksAs It Was - Harry Styles First Class - Jack Harlow Fingers Crossed - Lauren Spencer-Smith Broadway Girls - Lil Durk feat. Morgan Wallen Has a good shotMamiiii - Becky G & Karol G Some song(s) off of Mr. Morale & the Big Steppers Some song(s) off of Twelve Carat Toothache Could make it
About Damn Time - Lizzo Bam Bam - Camila Cabello feat. Ed Sheeran Wait For U - Future feat. Tems & Drake Darkhorse candidatesWasted on You - Morgan Wallen The Motto - Tiesto & Ava Max When You're Gone - Shawn Mendes Never Say Never - Cole Swindell & Lainey Wilson Numb Little Bug - Emi Beihold Boyfriend - Dove Cameron She's All I Wanna Be - Tate McRae Thousand Miles - The Kid Laroi Don't Think Jesus - Morgan Wallen
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Post by PositivityMaster48 on May 3, 2022 13:21:15 GMT -5
Week 25 has arrived! I also have a little surprise which I’ll post in a bit..
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Post by PositivityMaster48 on May 3, 2022 13:23:24 GMT -5
Week 25 has arrived! I also have a little surprise which I’ll post in a bit.. Quick note.. Forgot to add Broadway Girls which will lock next week too.
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Post by reputainbow on May 3, 2022 13:45:32 GMT -5
{Week 25}1 Heat Waves (Glass Animals) 7459 2 Easy on Me (Adele) 7341 3 Stay (Kid Laroi/Justin Bieber) 7253 4 Super Gremlin (Kodak Black) 5325.4 5 Shivers (Ed Sheeran) 5281 6 We Don't Talk About Bruno (Carolina Gaitan/Mauro Castillo/Adassa/Rhenzy Feliz/Diane Guerrero/Stephanie Beatriz/Encanto Cast) 4958 7 abcdefu (GAYLE) 4898.2 8 Bad Habits (Ed Sheeran) 4600 9 Industry Baby (Lil Nas X/Jack Harlow) 4583 10 Ghost (Justin Bieber) 4464 11 Need to Know (Doja Cat) 4335 12 Cold Heart (Elton John/Dua Lipa) 4268 13 That's What I Want (Lil Nas X) 3815 14 Big Energy (Latto) 3637.8 15 Enemy (Imagine Dragons/JID) 3467.8 16 One Right Now (Post Malone/The Weeknd) 3437 17 Good 4 U (Olivia Rodrigo) 3294 18 Fancy Like (Walker Hayes) 3134 19 Woman (Doja Cat) 3131.2 20 Save Your Tears (The Weeknd) 3117 21 Levitating (Dua Lipa) 3068 22 Smokin Out the Window (Silk Sonic/Bruno Mars/Anderson .Paak) 2824.4 23 You Right (Doja Cat/The Weeknd) 2820 24 I Hate U (SZA) 2696 25 Buy Dirt (Jordan Davis/Luke Bryan) 2628.4 26 Pushin P (Gunna/Future/Young Thug) 2620.6 27 Til You Can't (Cody Johnson) 2531.2 28 Surface Pressure (Jessica Darrow) 2516.8 29 Love Nwantiti (Ah Ah Ah) (Ckay/Joeboy/Kuami Eugene) 2393.4 30 Hrs and Hrs (Muni Long) 2383.6 31 Sand In My Boots (Morgan Wallen) 2375.8 32 Knife Talk (Drake/21 Savage/Project Pat) 2198 33 All I Want for Christmas Is You (Mariah Carey) 2124 34 Essence (Wizkid/Tems/Justin Bieber) 2030 35 Oh My God (Adele) 1947.8 36 Fingers Crossed (Lauren Spencer-Smith) 1907.8 37 Doin' This (Luke Combs) 1857.2 38 Better Days (Neiked/Mae Muller/Polo G) 1845.4 39 Meet Me At Our Spot (The Anxiety/Willow/Tyler Cole) 1799.4 40 You Should Probably Leave (Chris Stapleton) 1795.8 41 Broadway Girls (Lil Durk/Morgan Wallen) 1782.2 42 Rockin' Around the Christmas Tree (Brenda Lee) 1739 43 All Too Well (Taylor's Version) (Taylor Swift) 1695 44 The Family Madrigal (Stephanie Beatriz/Olga Merediz/Encanto Cast) 1631.4 45 Heart on Fire (Eric Church) 1612 46 One Mississippi (Kane Brown) 1574.4 47 Jingle Bell Rock (Bobby Helms) 1571 48 Kiss Me More (Doja Cat/SZA) 1548 49 Beers on Me (Dierks Bentley/Breland/HARDY) 1546.8 50 As It Was (Harry Styles) 1529 51 Light Switch (Charlie Puth) 1506.2 52 AA (Walker Hayes) 1496.8 53 Mamiii (Becky G/Karol G) 1494 54 A Holly Jolly Christmas (Burl Ives) 1485 55 To Be Loved by You (Parker McCollum) 1482.2 56 23 (Sam Hunt) 1410 57 Never Say Never (Cole Swindell/Lainey Wilson) 1396 58 Thinking 'Bout You (Dustin Lynch/Lauren Alaina/Mackenzie Porter) 1385.2 59 Who Want Smoke?? (Nardo Wick/G Herbo/Lil Durk/21 Savage) 1355.8 60 Dos Oruguitas (Sebastian Yatra) 1312.6 61 No Love (Summer Walker/SZA) 1300.8 62 What Else Can I Do? (Diane Guerrero/Stephanie Beatriz) 1296.2 63 Half of My Hometown (Kelsea Ballerini/Kenny Chesney) 1291.2 64 Way 2 Sexy (Drake/Future/Young Thug) 1284.8 65 By Your Side (Rod Wave) 1277.2 66 Happier Than Ever (Billie Eilish) 1241.2 67 Do We Have a Problem? (Nicki Minaj/Lil Baby) 1239.8 68 It's the Most Wonderful Time of the Year (Andy Williams) 1202 69 Chosen (Blxst/Tyga/Ty Dolla $ign) 1194.8 70 Freedom Was a Highway (Jimmie Allen/Brad Paisley) 1183.2 71 Whiskey and Rain (Michael Ray) 1183.2 72 Me or Sum (Nardo Wick/Lil Baby/Future) 1174.4 73 Circles Around This Town (Maren Morris) 1171.2 74 Pressure (Ari Lennox) 1119.6 75 Numb Little Bug (Em Beihold) 1110.6 76 If I Didn't Love You (Jason Aldean/Carrie Underwood) 1094.4 77 She's All I Wanna Be (Tate Mcrae) 1075.4 78 P Power (Gunna/Drake) 1065.6 79 First Class (Jack Harlow) 1058 80 Last Christmas (Wham!) 1054 81 Boyfriend (Dove Cameron) 1051.6 82 Sacrifice (The Weeknd) 1046.6 83 Never Wanted to Be That Girl (Carly Pearce/Ashley McBryde) 1044 84 Peru (Fireboy DML/Ed Sheeran) 1042.8 85 Ahhh Ha (Lil Durk) 1034.8 86 Girls Want Girls (Drake/Lil Baby) 1023 87 The Motto (Tiesto/Ava Max) 1017.6 88 For Tonight (Giveon) 1009.2 89 Bam Bam (Camila Cabello/Ed Sheeran) 998 90 Flower Shops (ERNEST/Morgan Wallen) 945.6 91 I Love You So (The Walters) 945.2 92 If I Was a Cowboy (Miranda Lambert) 938.8 93 Rumors (Gucci Mane/Lil Durk) 935.6 94 Message In a Bottle (Taylor Swift) 932.2 95 Have Mercy (Chloe) 917.6 96 Scorpio (Moneybagg Yo) 913.6 97 Feliz Navidad (Jose Feliciano) 908 98 Nail Tech (Jack Harlow) 907.8 99 My Universe (Coldplay/BTS) 903.8 100 Sweetest Pie (Megan Thee Stallion/Dua Lipa) 882 new #1
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Post by PositivityMaster48 on May 3, 2022 14:07:36 GMT -5
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joshtheking
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Post by joshtheking on May 3, 2022 14:24:27 GMT -5
Okay here's my Year End contender predictions in no order Easy On Me Stay Industry Baby Bad Habits Fancy Like Shivers Way 2 SexyNeed To Know Good 4 U Heat Waves Essence Cold Heart Meet Me At Our Spot Happier Than EverBetter Days That's What I Want Love Nwantiti Ghost One Right Now No Love(?) Smokin Out The Window Not so bad
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inverse
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Post by inverse on May 3, 2022 15:35:18 GMT -5
Feels like new songs are running out of time to get into the year end top 10 with how low the points are. Last year we had Good 4 U debut fairly late & get in and Butter and Stay were both pretty close but this year with how unreceptive the charts are to new songs I'm not sure those can be replicated.
Year end top 10 looks like it'll be something like
1. Heat Waves 2. Stay (why are the top 2 both from last year's top 20???) 3. Easy On Me 4. Shivers 5. Super Gremlin 6. As It Was 7. Enemy 8. Ghost 9. Bad Habits 10. First Class
Not even sure First Class will get that high but I'm just wishfully thinking that it will and that the damn abcdefu song keeps freefalling
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joshtheking
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Post by joshtheking on May 3, 2022 15:53:11 GMT -5
Feels like new songs are running out of time to get into the year end top 10 with how low the points are. Last year we had Good 4 U debut fairly late & get in and Butter and Stay were both pretty close but this year with how unreceptive the charts are to new songs I'm not sure those can be replicated. Year end top 10 looks like it'll be something like 1. Heat Waves 2. Stay (why are the top 2 both from last year's top 20???) 3. Easy On Me 4. Shivers 5. Super Gremlin 6. As It Was 7. Enemy 8. Ghost 9. Bad Habits 10. First Class Not even sure First Class will get that high but I'm just wishfully thinking that it will and that the damn abcdefu song keeps freefalling Wow... that would be a boring top 10 lol. especially compared to the legendary top 10 we had last year
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inverse
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Post by inverse on May 3, 2022 15:57:34 GMT -5
Feels like new songs are running out of time to get into the year end top 10 with how low the points are. Last year we had Good 4 U debut fairly late & get in and Butter and Stay were both pretty close but this year with how unreceptive the charts are to new songs I'm not sure those can be replicated. Year end top 10 looks like it'll be something like 1. Heat Waves 2. Stay (why are the top 2 both from last year's top 20???) 3. Easy On Me 4. Shivers 5. Super Gremlin 6. As It Was 7. Enemy 8. Ghost 9. Bad Habits 10. First Class Not even sure First Class will get that high but I'm just wishfully thinking that it will and that the damn abcdefu song keeps freefalling Wow... that would be a boring top 10 lol. especially compared to the legendary top 10 we had last year tbh the worst part isn't even the songs themselves but that 7 of them were already on the hot 100 from week one & Enemy debuted week three! Of course this list isn't locked by any means, we could also have Big Energy, Woman, Industry Baby, abcdefu, Cold Heart oh wait those were also all here from December 2021 yeah this year is cursed
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Post by PositivityMaster48 on May 3, 2022 16:13:27 GMT -5
You know something.. I can't believe songs like One Mississippi, Thinking Bout You, and even The Family Madrigal and Heart On Fire have small chances to make the YE. I doubt most of them will make it by the end of the year but it's still crazy how the cutoff got this low so far.
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𝓲𝓽'𝓼.𝓰𝓿
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Post by 𝓲𝓽'𝓼.𝓰𝓿 on May 3, 2022 16:41:12 GMT -5
You know something.. I can't believe songs like One Mississippi, Thinking Bout You, and even The Family Madrigal and Heart On Fire have small chances to make the YE. I doubt most of them will make it by the end of the year but it's still crazy how the cutoff got this low so far. I would happily allow the possibility of "The Family Madrigal" and/or "Thinking 'Bout You" scraping by the Year-End Hot 100 list
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Groovy
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Post by Groovy on May 4, 2022 10:03:31 GMT -5
I don't know what's weirder about this, the fact that Becky G is likely getting another YE appearance almost 10 years after her last appearance or how far away her latest hit is so far away from her first.
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Groovy
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Post by Groovy on May 5, 2022 9:01:07 GMT -5
Fun fact about the current top 4, it does not have a single American act, the last time that happened was 2016.
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puwrpler04
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Post by puwrpler04 on May 5, 2022 11:58:58 GMT -5
You know something.. I can't believe songs like One Mississippi, Thinking Bout You, and even The Family Madrigal and Heart On Fire have small chances to make the YE. I doubt most of them will make it by the end of the year but it's still crazy how the cutoff got this low so far. I think it’s should be said that 4 Christmas songs could potentially make this year end list That’s way too many
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rockgolf
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Post by rockgolf on May 5, 2022 15:48:41 GMT -5
Halfway thru the Billboard calendar year and here's how I think the top 100 of 2022 currently shape up, including the May 7, 2022 chart: I've got 47 songs to date that have passed the magic 1600 point mark I think is necessary to reach the actual year-end. Or about half the top 100 at the halfway thru the year mark. The predictive chart is now estimating to the last chart of September, or about 6 weeks from the actual Billboard calendar year-end. Est. Year end | Song | Artist | YE Est Pts | 1 | Heat Waves | Glass Animals | 11389 | 2 | Stay | The Kid LAROI & Justin Bieber | 9219 | 3 | Easy On Me | Adele | 8483 | 4 | Super Gremlin | Kodak Black | 7174 | 5 | Ghost | Justin Bieber | 6677 | 6 | As It Was | Harry Styles | 6613 | 7 | Big Energy | Latto | 6594 | 8 | Shivers | Ed Sheeran | 6495 | 9 | Thats What I Want | Lil Nas X | 6306 | 10 | abcdefu | GAYLE | 6145 | 11 | Bad Habits | Ed Sheeran | 6079 | 12 | Enemy | Imagine Dragons X JID | 5971 | 13 | Cold Heart (PNAU Remix) | Elton John & Dua Lipa | 5914 | 14 | Need To Know | Doja Cat | 5851 | 15 | Industry Baby | Lil Nas X & Jack Harlow | 5442 | 16 | Woman | Doja Cat | 5389 | 17 | We Don't Talk About Bruno | Carolina Gaitan, Mauro Castillo, Adassa, Rhenzy Feliz, Diane Guerrero, Stephanie Beatriz & Encanto Cast | 5338 | 18 | First Class | Jack Harlow | 5105 | 19 | One Right Now | Post Malone & The Weeknd | 5043 | 20 | Save Your Tears | The Weeknd & Ariana Grande | 4832 | 21 | Levitating | Dua Lipa | 4595 | 22 | Good 4 U | Olivia Rodrigo | 3956 | 23 | Fancy Like | Walker Hayes | 3338 | 24 | 'Til You Can't | Cody Johnson | 3311 | 25 | Hrs And Hrs | Muni Long | 3242 | 26 | I Hate U | SZA | 3169 | 27 | You Right | Doja Cat & The Weeknd | 3145 | 28 | Smokin Out The Window | Silk Sonic (Bruno Mars & Anderson .Paak) | 2901 | 29 | MAMIII | Becky G X Karol G | 2890 | 30 | Buy Dirt | Jordan Davis ft. Luke Bryan | 2830 | 31 | Pushin P | Gunna & Future ft. Young Thug | 2711 | 32 | Surface Pressure | Jessica Darrow | 2679 | 33 | Doin' This | Luke Combs | 2646 | 34 | Love Nwantiti (Ah Ah Ah) | CKay | 2559 | 35 | Sand In My Boots | Morgan Wallen | 2529 | 36 | Knife Talk | Drake ft. 21 Savage & Project Pat | 2333 | 37 | AA | Walker Hayes | 2329 | 38 | Essence | Wizkid ft. Justin Bieber & Tems | 2182 | 39 | Fingers Crossed | Lauren Spencer-Smith | 2163 | 40 | All I Want For Christmas Is You | Mariah Carey | 2104 | 41 | Oh My God | Adele | 2006 | 42 | Bam Bam | Camila Cabello ft. Ed Sheeran | 1996 | 43 | Better Days | NEIKED X Mae Muller X Polo G | 1964 | 44 | Meet Me At Our Spot | THE ANXIETY: WILLOW & Tyler Cole | 1952 | 45 | You Should Probably Leave | Chris Stapleton | 1902 | 46 | Broadway Girls | Lil Durk ft. Morgan Wallen | 1880 | 47 | The Family Madrigal | Stephanie Beatriz, Olga Merediz & Encanto Cast | 1730 | 48 | Kiss Me More | Doja Cat ft. SZA | 1685 | 49 | Rockin' Around The Christmas Tree | Brenda Lee | 1656 | 50 | Boyfriend | Dove Cameron | 1628 | 51 | One Mississippi | Kane Brown | 1614 | 52 | Light Switch | Charlie Puth | 1610 | 53 | Thousand Miles | The Kid LAROI | 1572 | 54 | Beers On Me | Dierks Bentley, Breland & HARDY | 1552 | 55 | Numb Little Bug | Em Beihold | 1522 | 56 | Never Say Never | Cole Swindell / Lainey Wilson | 1520 | 57 | All Too Well (Taylor's Version) | Taylor Swift | 1516 | 58 | Heart On Fire | Eric Church | 1492 | 59 | Thinking 'Bout You | Dustin Lynch ft. Lauren Alaina Or MacKenzie Porter | 1476 | 60 | Jingle Bell Rock | Bobby Helms | 1435 | 61 | To Be Loved By You | Parker McCollum | 1419 | 62 | Wasted On You | Morgan Wallen | 1383 | 63 | Sweetest Pie | Megan Thee Stallion & Dua Lipa | 1378 | 64 | Who Want Smoke?? | Nardo Wick ft. G Herbo, Lil Durk & 21 Savage | 1378 | 65 | 23 | Sam Hunt | 1363 | 66 | Way 2 Sexy | Drake ft. Future & Young Thug | 1347 | 67 | A Holly Jolly Christmas | Burl Ives | 1343 | 68 | Happier Than Ever | Billie Eilish | 1322 | 69 | In A Minute | Lil Baby | 1287 | 70 | What Else Can I Do? | Diane Guerrero & Stephanie Beatriz | 1276 | 71 | Do We Have A Problem? | Nicki Minaj X Lil Baby | 1224 | 72 | Dos Oruguitas | Sebastian Yatra | 1223 | 73 | Chosen | Blxst & Tyga ft. Ty Dolla $ign | 1186 | 74 | It's The Most Wonderful Time Of The Year | Andy Williams | 1184 | 75 | If I Didn't Love You | Jason Aldean & Carrie Underwood | 1154 | 76 | Whiskey And Rain | Michael Ray | 1152 | 77 | No Love | Summer Walker & SZA | 1141 | 78 | To The Moon! | JNR CHOI & Sam Tompkins | 1141 | 79 | Half Of My Hometown | Kelsea Ballerini ft. Kenny Chesney | 1137 | 80 | She's All I Wanna Be | Tate McRae | 1124 | 80 | Me Or Sum | Nardo Wick, Lil Baby & Future | 1124 | 82 | Ahhh Ha | Lil Durk | 1095 | 83 | Sacrifice | The Weeknd | 1078 | 84 | Girls Want Girls | Drake ft. Lil Baby | 1075 | 85 | Last Christmas | Wham! | 1071 | 86 | Peru | Fireboy DML & Ed Sheeran | 1029 | 87 | Freedom Was A Highway | Jimmie Allen & Brad Paisley | 1024 | 88 | By Your Side | Rod Wave | 1023 | 89 | Circles Around This Town | Maren Morris | 1020 | 90 | Feliz Navidad | Jose Feliciano | 951 | 91 | Nail Tech | Jack Harlow | 947 | 92 | The Motto | Tiesto & Ava Max | 921 | 93 | P Power | Gunna ft. Drake | 912 | 94 | Sleigh Ride | The Ronettes | 896 | 95 | Pressure | Ari Lennox | 879 | 96 | Have Mercy | Chloe | 869 | 97 | Right On | Lil Baby | 863 | 98 | What Happened To Virgil | Lil Durk ft. Gunna | 849 | 99 | The Christmas Song (Merry Christmas To You) | Nat King Cole | 848 | 100 | My Universe | Coldplay x BTS | 843 |
I just can't see the top 3 being anything other than the 3 songs listed on the predictive chart. There's just not enough weeks left in the year for any new (or newish) song to get the required points. As It Was continues to look like it will end up in the year-end top ten. First Class less so.
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Post by Baby Yoda Hot100Fan on May 5, 2022 22:03:46 GMT -5
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Groovy
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Post by Groovy on May 6, 2022 9:33:35 GMT -5
Can we just have As It Was and First Class as our top 2 this year, easily the biggest and best songs of the year so far.
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rockgolf
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Post by rockgolf on May 6, 2022 10:58:47 GMT -5
Can we just have As It Was and First Class as our top 2 this year, easily the biggest and best songs of the year so far. No, but they have a shot at topping the "complete" 2022 chart, based on complete chart run of songs that peaked in the calendar year.
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inverse
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Post by inverse on May 8, 2022 20:08:36 GMT -5
Can we just have As It Was and First Class as our top 2 this year, easily the biggest and best songs of the year so far. No, but they have a shot at topping the "complete" 2022 chart, based on complete chart run of songs that peaked in the calendar year. tbh I think Heat Waves will be unbeatable in that regard it's probably gonna go on like a 90 week run
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Groovy
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Post by Groovy on May 9, 2022 11:44:50 GMT -5
Let's say hypothetically Stay does wind up being the number 2 song of the year, that would mean Bieber had the number 2 for 2016, 2017 and 2022, is there anyone who has more? The only other acts I see with multiple number 2 songs are Post Malone, Ed Sheeran, TLC and Lionel Richie,
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Post by phieaglesfan712 on May 9, 2022 12:11:35 GMT -5
I just realized that since 2015, every YE #2 hit features either Ed Sheeran, Justin Bieber, or Post Malone except for Save Your Tears.
That also means that every YE Top 2 since 2015 has a hit either by Ed, Justin, Post, or The Weeknd. The two previous years, 2013 and 2014, each had a Top 2 hit by Pharrell (Blurred Lines and Happy). The 2012 YE Top 2 is filled with artists who were never relevant outside of that year (Gotye feat Kimbra and Carly Rae Jepsen). fun, who had the #3 song that year, also fits that bill.
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Post by PositivityMaster48 on May 10, 2022 8:00:26 GMT -5
Week 26 is now here!! Halfway done.
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Abbaschand
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Post by Abbaschand on May 10, 2022 8:06:14 GMT -5
We're halfway through the chart year, so you know what that means! Yup, it's time for my YE predictions!
As always, my lovely (yet shabby) point system No. Points 1 10 2-3 9 4-5 8 6-10 7 11-15 6 16-20 5.5 21-25 5 26-30 4.5 31-40 4 41-50 3.5 51-60 3 61-70 2.5 71-80 2 81-90 1.5 91-100 1
YE cutoff = 55.5 Pred. cutoff = 28
Week 26/52 1 Heat Waves 220 2 Stay 209 3 Easy On Me 209 4 Shivers 172 5 Super Gremlin 165 6 Bad Habits 160 7 ABCDEFU 157.5 8 Cold Heart 157 9 Need to Know 157 10 Industry Baby 157
11 Ghost 152 12 That's What I Want 142.5 13 We Don't Talk About Bruno 141.5 14 One Right Now 128 15 Good 4 U 122 16 Big Energy 121.5 17 Enemy 117 18 Save Your Tears 113.5 19 Fancy Like 110.5 20 Levitating 110
21 Woman 109 22 You Right 101 23 Smokin' Out the Window 98.5 24 I Hate U 96 25 Buy Dirt 95 26 Pushin' P 92.5 27 Surface Pressure 90.5 28 Til You Can't 90 29 Hrs and Hrs 89.5 30 Love Nwantiti 85.5
31 Sand In My Boots 84 32 Knife Talk 77.5 33 Essence 73 34 Fingers Crossed 71 35 Oh My God 67.5 36 Meet Me At Our Spot 66.5 37 Better Days 66 38 Doin' This 65 39 Broadway Girls 64.5 40 You Should Probably Leave 63
41 Mamiii 58.5 42 All I Want for Christmas Is You 58 43 The Family Madrigal 57.5 44 Kiss Me More 56 45 AA 55.5 46 Light Switch 55 47 One Mississippi 55 48 Beers on Me 54 49 Never Say Never 51.5 50 Thinking 'Bout You 50.5
51 Rockin' Around the Christmas Tree 50 52 To Be Loved by You 48.5 53 Heart On Fire 48.5 54 As It Was 48 55 23 48 56 All Too Well 48 57 Who Want Smoke?? 46 58 Jingle Bell Rock 45.5 59 Way 2 Sexy 45.5 60 Happier Than Ever 44.5
61 A Holly Jolly Christmas 43.5 62 What Else Can I Do? 43 63 Dos Oruguitas 42 64 Numb Little Bug 41.5 65 She's All I Wanna Be 41.5 66 Bam Bam 41 67 Boyfriend 41 68 If I Didn't Love You 40.5 69 Do We Have a Problem? 40 70 Chosen 39.5
71 It's the Most Wonderful Time of the Year 38.5 72 Me or Sum 38.5 73 Half of My Hometown 38 74 Whiskey and Rain 38 75 Sacrifice 37.5 76 First Class 37 77 Ahhh Ha 37 78 Peru 37 79 Circles Around This Town 36.5 80 Last Christmas 36
81 Girls Want Girls 36 82 Freedom Was a Highway 35.5 83 Sweetest Pie 35 84 By Your Side 35 85 The Motto 34 86 Nail Tech 33 87 What Happened to Virgil 32 88 P Power 32 89 Feliz Navidad 31.5 90 No Love 31.5
91 If I Was a Cowboy 31.5 92 Never Wanted to Be That Girl 30.5 93 Pressure 30.5 94 Sleigh Ride 30 95 Have Mercy 29 96 The Christmas Song 28.5 97 Rumors 28.5 98 My Universe 28.5 99 To the Moon! 28 100 Flower Shops 28
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gikem
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Post by gikem on May 10, 2022 8:19:00 GMT -5
We're halfway through the chart year, so you know what that means! Yup, it's time for my YE predictions! Maybe it's just the fact that I've been following the building Year-End predictions from people using real points a lot less closely this year, but the system you use makes infinitely more sense to me since real points have been so weak for most of 2022. At the very least, I'm glad that your top 50 contains only one Christmas song instead of four.
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𝓲𝓽'𝓼.𝓰𝓿
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Post by 𝓲𝓽'𝓼.𝓰𝓿 on May 10, 2022 8:20:37 GMT -5
Week 26 is now here!! Halfway done. Seeing "INDUSTRY BABY"'s total points at 399,999 and 1 point away from 400,000 is getting me anxious I may actually want it to survive next week's double album bomb for this very reason Also, "Save Your Tears" is even now with "Levitating", as the former is expected to be barely higher than the latter in the Billboard Hot 100 Year-End chart
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Abbaschand
Platinum Member
Joined: July 2016
Posts: 1,617
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Post by Abbaschand on May 10, 2022 9:09:07 GMT -5
We're halfway through the chart year, so you know what that means! Yup, it's time for my YE predictions! Maybe it's just the fact that I've been following the building Year-End predictions from people using real points a lot less closely this year, but the system you use makes infinitely more sense to me since real points have been so weak for most of 2022. At the very least, I'm glad that your top 50 contains only one Christmas song instead of four. Well, thank you! First time I got a compliment for my point system. I'm too busy (and too dumb) to use inverse points, so I stayed with my point system for the last 6 years.
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Post by reputainbow on May 10, 2022 13:45:54 GMT -5
{Week 26}1 Heat Waves (Glass Animals) 7734 2 Stay (Kid Laroi/Justin Bieber) 7456 3 Easy on Me (Adele) 7451 4 Super Gremlin (Kodak Black) 5483.4 5 Shivers (Ed Sheeran) 5421 6 We Don't Talk About Bruno (Carolina Gaitan/Mauro Castillo/Adassa/Rhenzy Feliz/Diane Guerrero/Stephanie Beatriz/Encanto Cast) 5047.2 7 abcdefu (GAYLE) 5034.2 8 Bad Habits (Ed Sheeran) 4750 9 Industry Baby (Lil Nas X/Jack Harlow) 4703 10 Ghost (Justin Bieber) 4630 11 Need to Know (Doja Cat) 4451 12 Cold Heart (Elton John/Dua Lipa) 4406 13 That's What I Want (Lil Nas X) 3969 14 Big Energy (Latto) 3894.8 15 Enemy (Imagine Dragons/JID) 3706.8 16 One Right Now (Post Malone/The Weeknd) 3545 17 Good 4 U (Olivia Rodrigo) 3387 18 Woman (Doja Cat) 3301.2 19 Fancy Like (Walker Hayes) 3134 20 Save Your Tears (The Weeknd) 3117 21 Levitating (Dua Lipa) 3068 22 Smokin Out the Window (Silk Sonic/Bruno Mars/Anderson .Paak) 2824.4 23 You Right (Doja Cat/The Weeknd) 2820 24 Pushin P (Gunna/Future/Young Thug) 2696.2 25 I Hate U (SZA) 2696 26 Til You Can't (Cody Johnson) 2649.2 27 Buy Dirt (Jordan Davis/Luke Bryan) 2628.4 28 Surface Pressure (Jessica Darrow) 2577.2 29 Hrs and Hrs (Muni Long) 2478.6 30 Love Nwantiti (Ah Ah Ah) (Ckay/Joeboy/Kuami Eugene) 2393.4 31 Sand In My Boots (Morgan Wallen) 2375.8 32 Knife Talk (Drake/21 Savage/Project Pat) 2198 33 All I Want for Christmas Is You (Mariah Carey) 2124 34 Essence (Wizkid/Tems/Justin Bieber) 2030 35 Fingers Crossed (Lauren Spencer-Smith) 1982.6 36 Doin' This (Luke Combs) 1951.2 37 Oh My God (Adele) 1947.8 38 As It Was (Harry Styles) 1858 39 Broadway Girls (Lil Durk/Morgan Wallen) 1847.4 40 Better Days (Neiked/Mae Muller/Polo G) 1845.4 41 Meet Me At Our Spot (The Anxiety/Willow/Tyler Cole) 1799.4 42 You Should Probably Leave (Chris Stapleton) 1795.8 43 Rockin' Around the Christmas Tree (Brenda Lee) 1739 44 All Too Well (Taylor's Version) (Taylor Swift) 1695 45 The Family Madrigal (Stephanie Beatriz/Olga Merediz/Encanto Cast) 1631.4 46 Mamiii (Becky G/Karol G) 1622 47 Beers on Me (Dierks Bentley/Breland/HARDY) 1620 48 Heart on Fire (Eric Church) 1612 49 AA (Walker Hayes) 1608.8 50 One Mississippi (Kane Brown) 1574.4 51 Jingle Bell Rock (Bobby Helms) 1571 52 Light Switch (Charlie Puth) 1565.8 53 Kiss Me More (Doja Cat/SZA) 1548 54 A Holly Jolly Christmas (Burl Ives) 1485 55 Never Say Never (Cole Swindell/Lainey Wilson) 1483.6 56 To Be Loved by You (Parker McCollum) 1482.2 57 23 (Sam Hunt) 1480 58 Thinking 'Bout You (Dustin Lynch/Lauren Alaina/Mackenzie Porter) 1385.2 59 First Class (Jack Harlow) 1369 60 No Love (Summer Walker/SZA) 1363.6 61 Who Want Smoke?? (Nardo Wick/G Herbo/Lil Durk/21 Savage) 1355.8 62 Dos Oruguitas (Sebastian Yatra) 1312.6 63 What Else Can I Do? (Diane Guerrero/Stephanie Beatriz) 1296.2 64 Do We Have a Problem? (Nicki Minaj/Lil Baby) 1295.4 65 Half of My Hometown (Kelsea Ballerini/Kenny Chesney) 1291.2 66 Way 2 Sexy (Drake/Future/Young Thug) 1284.8 67 By Your Side (Rod Wave) 1277.2 68 Me or Sum (Nardo Wick/Lil Baby/Future) 1243.6 69 Happier Than Ever (Billie Eilish) 1241.2 70 Circles Around This Town (Maren Morris) 1230 71 Numb Little Bug (Em Beihold) 1212.6 72 It's the Most Wonderful Time of the Year (Andy Williams) 1202 73 Chosen (Blxst/Tyga/Ty Dolla $ign) 1194.8 74 Freedom Was a Highway (Jimmie Allen/Brad Paisley) 1183.2 75 Whiskey and Rain (Michael Ray) 1183.2 76 Boyfriend (Dove Cameron) 1165.6 77 She's All I Wanna Be (Tate Mcrae) 1160.6 78 Bam Bam (Camila Cabello/Ed Sheeran) 1124 79 Peru (Fireboy DML/Ed Sheeran) 1122.4 80 Never Wanted to Be That Girl (Carly Pearce/Ashley McBryde) 1120.4 81 Pressure (Ari Lennox) 1119.6 82 The Motto (Tiesto/Ava Max) 1096.4 83 If I Didn't Love You (Jason Aldean/Carrie Underwood) 1094.4 84 Ahhh Ha (Lil Durk) 1088 85 P Power (Gunna/Drake) 1065.6 86 Last Christmas (Wham!) 1054 87 Sacrifice (The Weeknd) 1046.6 88 If I Was a Cowboy (Miranda Lambert) 1024.8 89 Girls Want Girls (Drake/Lil Baby) 1023 90 Flower Shops (ERNEST/Morgan Wallen) 1009.2 91 For Tonight (Giveon) 1009.2 92 I Love You So (The Walters) 1003.2 93 Rumors (Gucci Mane/Lil Durk) 988 94 Sweetest Pie (Megan Thee Stallion/Dua Lipa) 983 95 Nail Tech (Jack Harlow) 969.8 96 Message In a Bottle (Taylor Swift) 932.2 97 Have Mercy (Chloe) 917.6 98 Scorpio (Moneybagg Yo) 913.6 99 Feliz Navidad (Jose Feliciano) 908 100 My Universe (Coldplay/BTS) 903.8
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rockgolf
2x Platinum Member
Pop music fanatic since the days of 7" 45 RPM records.
Joined: August 2018
Posts: 2,029
Pronouns: he/him/his
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Post by rockgolf on May 11, 2022 14:33:37 GMT -5
For the week of May 14, 2022 - the actual halfway point of Billboard 2022 - here's where I think the top 100 of 2022 currently sits: This is the first week that Heat Waves actual has more points in my system than Easy On Me and ascends to the #1 spot for the year. My predictive chart has been expecting that for a couple of months already. And, yes, at this point I've comfortable predicting Heat Waves will actually be the #1 song of 2022 when the real year-end is published. Speaking of the predictive chart, let's see how the Future chart bomb has affected it. Yada, yada, yada, assumes all songs lose only 5% of their points on each of the next 20 weeks until they fall out of the top 50. Est. Year end | Song | Artist | YE Est Pts | 1 | Heat Waves | Glass Animals | 10467 | 2 | Stay | The Kid LAROI & Justin Bieber | 9309 | 3 | Easy On Me | Adele | 8212 | 4 | Super Gremlin | Kodak Black | 6524 | 5 | Shivers | Ed Sheeran | 6141 | 6 | As It Was | Harry Styles | 6134 | 7 | Bad Habits | Ed Sheeran | 6094 | 8 | Big Energy | Latto | 6054 | 9 | Ghost | Justin Bieber | 6035 | 10 | Enemy | Imagine Dragons X JID | 5856 | 11 | abcdefu | GAYLE | 5691 | 12 | Thats What I Want | Lil Nas X | 5657 | 13 | Cold Heart (PNAU Remix) | Elton John & Dua Lipa | 5474 | 14 | Industry Baby | Lil Nas X & Jack Harlow | 5279 | 15 | Need To Know | Doja Cat | 5134 | 16 | We Don't Talk About Bruno | Carolina Gaitan, Mauro Castillo, Adassa, Rhenzy Feliz, Diane Guerrero, Stephanie Beatriz & Encanto Cast | 5119 | 17 | Wait For U | Future ft. Drake & Tems | 4933 | 18 | First Class | Jack Harlow | 4859 | 19 | Woman | Doja Cat | 4649 | 20 | One Right Now | Post Malone & The Weeknd | 4196 | 21 | Good 4 U | Olivia Rodrigo | 3627 | 22 | Save Your Tears | The Weeknd & Ariana Grande | 3439 | 23 | Puffin On Zootiez | Future | 3362 | 24 | Fancy Like | Walker Hayes | 3338 | 25 | Levitating | Dua Lipa | 3314 | 26 | 'Til You Can't | Cody Johnson | 3052 | 27 | You Right | Doja Cat & The Weeknd | 3047 | 28 | Smokin Out The Window | Silk Sonic (Bruno Mars & Anderson .Paak) | 2901 | 29 | I Hate U | SZA | 2852 | 30 | Buy Dirt | Jordan Davis ft. Luke Bryan | 2830 | 31 | Pushin P | Gunna & Future ft. Young Thug | 2789 | 32 | Surface Pressure | Jessica Darrow | 2718 | 33 | Hrs And Hrs | Muni Long | 2656 | 34 | MAMIII | Becky G X Karol G | 2560 | 35 | Love Nwantiti (Ah Ah Ah) | CKay | 2559 | 36 | Sand In My Boots | Morgan Wallen | 2529 | 37 | 712PM | Future | 2441 | 38 | I'm Dat N***a | Future | 2419 | 39 | Knife Talk | Drake ft. 21 Savage & Project Pat | 2333 | 40 | Essence | Wizkid ft. Justin Bieber & Tems | 2182 | 41 | Fingers Crossed | Lauren Spencer-Smith | 2143 | 42 | All I Want For Christmas Is You | Mariah Carey | 2104 | 43 | AA | Walker Hayes | 2085 | 44 | Oh My God | Adele | 2006 | 45 | Bam Bam | Camila Cabello ft. Ed Sheeran | 1998 | 46 | Better Days | NEIKED X Mae Muller X Polo G | 1964 | 47 | Meet Me At Our Spot | THE ANXIETY: WILLOW & Tyler Cole | 1952 | 48 | Doin' This | Luke Combs | 1942 | 49 | Broadway Girls | Lil Durk ft. Morgan Wallen | 1925 | 50 | You Should Probably Leave | Chris Stapleton | 1902 | 51 | The Family Madrigal | Stephanie Beatriz, Olga Merediz & Encanto Cast | 1730 | 52 | Kiss Me More | Doja Cat ft. SZA | 1685 | 53 | Rockin' Around The Christmas Tree | Brenda Lee | 1656 | 54 | Light Switch | Charlie Puth | 1648 | 55 | Boyfriend | Dove Cameron | 1643 | 56 | About Damn Time | Lizzo | 1622 | 57 | One Mississippi | Kane Brown | 1614 | 58 | I'm On One | Future ft. Drake | 1609 | 59 | Beers On Me | Dierks Bentley, Breland & HARDY | 1607 | 60 | Love You Better | Future | 1600 | 61 | Keep It Burnin | Future ft. Kanye West | 1572 | 62 | Numb Little Bug | Em Beihold | 1533 | 63 | All Too Well (Taylor's Version) | Taylor Swift | 1516 | 64 | Never Say Never | Cole Swindell / Lainey Wilson | 1513 | 65 | Heart On Fire | Eric Church | 1492 | 66 | Thinking 'Bout You | Dustin Lynch ft. Lauren Alaina Or MacKenzie Porter | 1476 | 67 | Jingle Bell Rock | Bobby Helms | 1435 | 68 | Massaging Me | Future | 1432 | 69 | To Be Loved By You | Parker McCollum | 1419 | 70 | 23 | Sam Hunt | 1414 | 71 | Wasted On You | Morgan Wallen | 1407 | 72 | Who Want Smoke?? | Nardo Wick ft. G Herbo, Lil Durk & 21 Savage | 1378 | 73 | Way 2 Sexy | Drake ft. Future & Young Thug | 1347 | 74 | A Holly Jolly Christmas | Burl Ives | 1343 | 75 | Happier Than Ever | Billie Eilish | 1322 | 76 | What Else Can I Do? | Diane Guerrero & Stephanie Beatriz | 1276 | 77 | Do We Have A Problem? | Nicki Minaj X Lil Baby | 1257 | 78 | Dos Oruguitas | Sebastian Yatra | 1223 | 79 | She's All I Wanna Be | Tate McRae | 1214 | 80 | Chosen | Blxst & Tyga ft. Ty Dolla $ign | 1186 | 81 | It's The Most Wonderful Time Of The Year | Andy Williams | 1184 | 82 | No Love | Summer Walker & SZA | 1183 | 83 | Me Or Sum | Nardo Wick, Lil Baby & Future | 1174 | 84 | If I Didn't Love You | Jason Aldean & Carrie Underwood | 1154 | 85 | Whiskey And Rain | Michael Ray | 1152 | 86 | Sweetest Pie | Megan Thee Stallion & Dua Lipa | 1146 | 87 | Half Of My Hometown | Kelsea Ballerini ft. Kenny Chesney | 1137 | 88 | Ahhh Ha | Lil Durk | 1125 | 89 | Peru | Fireboy DML & Ed Sheeran | 1112 | 90 | Sacrifice | The Weeknd | 1078 | 91 | Girls Want Girls | Drake ft. Lil Baby | 1075 | 92 | Last Christmas | Wham! | 1071 | 93 | Provenza | Karol G | 1069 | 94 | Circles Around This Town | Maren Morris | 1057 | 95 | Freedom Was A Highway | Jimmie Allen & Brad Paisley | 1024 | 96 | By Your Side | Rod Wave | 1023 | 97 | In A Minute | Lil Baby | 1013 | 98 | The Motto | Tiesto & Ava Max | 1003 | 99 | Nail Tech | Jack Harlow | 988 | 100 | For A Nut | Future ft. Gunna & Young Thug | 956 |
I don't really expect all those Future tracks to stay in. Most will have mammoth 2nd week drops if history is any indicator. But As It Was is holding on to a top 10 year-end trajectory! I wouldn't be totally shocked to see it go back to #1 on the Hot 100.
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