inverse
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Your mind is in disturbia...
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Post by inverse on Sept 19, 2022 18:21:23 GMT -5
Son Of A Sinner - needs 9k/week. Probable Numb - also needs 9k/week but it's close to peaking on radio so that's iffy. 30% chance? Unstoppable - 0% Bones - just needs to avoid going recurrent. I'd say like 80% chance Hot S-word - needs at least 7k/week and it's already below 7k right now. not happening F.N.F (Let's Go) - see Bones but more likely to go recurrent. 50/50 Sticky - 5 weeks away. Doubt it gets there with radio freefalling She Likes It - if this makes it we're ceding this wasteland back to the British and making this a thread about the Canadian charts from now on Unstoppable could likely make it if it keeps gaining in radio the way it is. Especially if it reaches the Top 20 It needs 10k per week for the last 8 weeks. Which means if it inexplicably jumped from 45 to 25 & stayed there for the next 8 weeks it would probably still miss but just barely. If it climbs slowly from 45 to 25 over the last 8 weeks it's not even gonna be close. Either way even getting it to 25 on the hot 100 at all is an absolute pipe dream because radio won't get much bigger and that's also all it has.
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Abbaschand
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Post by Abbaschand on Sept 20, 2022 9:32:55 GMT -5
Well, it's time for a (bit late) projection!
1 Heat Waves 2 Stay 3 As It Was 4 Big Energy 5 Ghost 6 Shivers 7 Super Gremlin (+1) 8 Cold Heart (+1) 9 First Class (+1) 10 About Damn Time (-3)
11 Bad Habits 12 Easy On Me 13 Wait For U 14 That's What I Want 15 Enemy 16 Me Porto Bonito (+2) 17 Wasted on You (+2) 18 Running Up That Hill (-1) 19 Woman (+1) 20 ABCDEFU (+1)
21 Industry Baby (+1) 22 Need to Know (+1) 23 Late Night Talking (-7) 24 Titi Me Pregunto 25 I Like You (+3) 26 Sunroof (-1) 27 We Don't Talk About Bruno (-1) 28 You Proof (+1) 29 Bad Habit (+1) 30 One Right Now (+1)
31 Break My Soul (-4) 32 Moscow Mule 33 Numb Little Bug 34 Good 4 U 35 Jimmy Cooks (+1) 36 The Kind of Love We Make (-1) 37 In a Minute 38 I Ain't Worried 39 Save Your Tears 40 Til You Can't
41 Fancy Like 42 Levitating 43 Something In the Orange (+3) 44 Glimpse of Us (-1) 45 She Had Me at Heads Carolina (-1) 46 Vegas (+1) 47 Super Freaky Girl (+9) 48 You Right (-3) 49 Boyfriend (-1) 50 Smokin' Out the Window (-1)
51 Pushin' P 52 I Hate U 53 Buy Dirt 54 Hrs and Hrs 55 Fall in Love (+30) 56 Surface Pressure (-1) 57 Mamiii (-1) 58 Love Nwantiti (-1) 59 5 Foot 9 60 Sweetest Pie
61 Sand In My Boots 62 Provenza (+4) 63 AA (-1) 64 Bam Bam (-1) 65 Rock and a Hard Place (-1) 66 Knife Talk (+1) 67 Last Night Lonely (-2) 68 Essence 69 Get Into It 70 Efecto (-20)
71 Fingers Crossed (-1) 72 Like I Love Country Music 73 Doin' This 74 Party (+1) 75 Oh My God (+1) 76 Left and Right (-5) 77 Meet Me At Our Spot 78 Better Days 79 Despues de La Playa 80 Betty (+8)
81 Take My Name (-1) 82 Broadway Girls (-1) 83 What Happened to Virgil (-1) 84 You Should Probably Leave 85 Son of a Sinner (+1) 86 Sticky (-12) 87 Ojitos Lindos 88 Never Say Never (+1) 89 Sleazy Flow (+3) 90 Staying Alive (-7)
91 Damn Strait (+3) 92 Trouble with a Heartbreak (+3) 93 She's All I Wanna Be (+3) 94 All I Want for Christmas Is You (+3) 95 Puffin' on Zootiez (-2) 96 The Family Madrigal (+2) 97 Numb (-7) 98 Hot (-7) 99 Kiss Me More 100 Unstoppable (NE)
So, according to my prediction, Unstoppable will barely make it. And I think Bones, So Good, and F.N.F also have a slight chance to make it, but only if they keep rising or being consistent.
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Post by thatpolishboy on Sept 20, 2022 9:58:27 GMT -5
What are the chances of So Good making it? Its been steadily increasing on radio every week and will likely spend the 20 weeks on the chart.
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rockgolf
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Post by rockgolf on Sept 20, 2022 10:38:19 GMT -5
The insane duration of As It Was in the top two is playing havoc with my prediction algorithm. I think it will finish the year at #2 but it will be hard for Billboard to deny the #1 position to a song that by year-end will have spent over 6 months at either #1 or #2. So here's a grain of salt for you and my estimation of the current state of the top 100 of 2022 through the Sept. 24, 2022 chart. And the increasingly more ludicrous predictive list of where the Top 100 will finally end up. EST Year end | Song | Artist | YE Est Pts | 1 | As It Was | Harry Styles | 15271 | 2 | Heat Waves | Glass Animals | 12562 | 3 | Stay | The Kid LAROI & Justin Bieber | 11063 | 4 | Easy On Me | Adele | 7889 | 5 | Ghost | Justin Bieber | 7852 | 6 | Big Energy | Latto | 7835 | 7 | First Class | Jack Harlow | 7733 | 8 | Shivers | Ed Sheeran | 7534 | 9 | About Damn Time | Lizzo | 7091 | 10 | Super Gremlin | Kodak Black | 7044 | 11 | Cold Heart (PNAU Remix) | Elton John & Dua Lipa | 6833 | 12 | Bad Habits | Ed Sheeran | 6433 | 13 | Wait For U | Future ft. Drake & Tems | 6315 | 14 | Thats What I Want | Lil Nas X | 5719 | 15 | Enemy | Imagine Dragons X JID | 5326 | 16 | We Don't Talk About Bruno | Carolina Gaitan, Mauro Castillo, Adassa, Rhenzy Feliz, Diane Guerrero, Stephanie Beatriz & Encanto Cast | 5195 | 17 | abcdefu | GAYLE | 4976 | 18 | Running Up That Hill (A Deal With God) | Kate Bush | 4929 | 19 | Woman | Doja Cat | 4903 | 20 | Me Porto Bonito | Bad Bunny & Chencho Corleone | 4883 | 21 | Industry Baby | Lil Nas X & Jack Harlow | 4846 | 22 | Wasted On You | Morgan Wallen | 4834 | 23 | Need To Know | Doja Cat | 4800 | 24 | Late Night Talking | Harry Styles | 4572 | 25 | Titi Me Pregunto | Bad Bunny | 4410 | 26 | Bad Habit | Steve Lacy | 4322 | 27 | I Like You (A Happier Song) | Post Malone ft. Doja Cat | 4275 | 28 | Sunroof | Nicky Youre & dazy | 4272 | 29 | You Proof | Morgan Wallen | 4071 | 30 | One Right Now | Post Malone & The Weeknd | 3899 | 31 | Break My Soul | Beyonce | 3896 | 32 | Numb Little Bug | Em Beihold | 3707 | 33 | Moscow Mule | Bad Bunny | 3660 | 34 | Good 4 U | Olivia Rodrigo | 3627 | 35 | Jimmy Cooks | Drake ft. 21 Savage | 3464 | 36 | Save Your Tears | The Weeknd & Ariana Grande | 3439 | 37 | Fancy Like | Walker Hayes | 3338 | 38 | Levitating | Dua Lipa | 3314 | 39 | 'Til You Can't | Cody Johnson | 3259 | 40 | I Ain't Worried | OneRepublic | 3200 | 41 | The Kind Of Love We Make | Luke Combs | 3200 | 42 | Glimpse Of Us | Joji | 3079 | 43 | In A Minute | Lil Baby | 3075 | 44 | You Right | Doja Cat & The Weeknd | 3047 | 45 | Something In The Orange | Zach Bryan | 2970 | 46 | Super Freaky Girl | Nicki Minaj | 2956 | 47 | Boyfriend | Dove Cameron | 2951 | 48 | She Had Me At Heads Carolina | Cole Swindell | 2938 | 49 | Pushin P | Gunna & Future ft. Young Thug | 2903 | 50 | Smokin Out The Window | Silk Sonic (Bruno Mars & Anderson .Paak) | 2901 | 51 | I Hate U | SZA | 2852 | 52 | Vegas | Doja Cat | 2842 | 53 | Buy Dirt | Jordan Davis ft. Luke Bryan | 2830 | 54 | Hrs And Hrs | Muni Long | 2740 | 55 | Surface Pressure | Jessica Darrow | 2718 | 56 | MAMIII | Becky G X Karol G | 2582 | 57 | Love Nwantiti (Ah Ah Ah) | CKay | 2559 | 58 | Sand In My Boots | Morgan Wallen | 2529 | 59 | Sweetest Pie | Megan Thee Stallion & Dua Lipa | 2472 | 60 | AA | Walker Hayes | 2438 | 61 | Provenza | Karol G | 2424 | 62 | Bam Bam | Camila Cabello ft. Ed Sheeran | 2365 | 63 | Knife Talk | Drake ft. 21 Savage & Project Pat | 2333 | 64 | 5 Foot 9 | Tyler Hubbard | 2283 | 65 | Fall In Love | Bailey Zimmerman | 2215 | 66 | Essence | Wizkid ft. Justin Bieber & Tems | 2182 | 67 | Fingers Crossed | Lauren Spencer-Smith | 2175 | 68 | Get Into It (Yuh) | Doja Cat | 2131 | 69 | Doin' This | Luke Combs | 2128 | 70 | Efecto | Bad Bunny | 2126 | 71 | All I Want For Christmas Is You | Mariah Carey | 2104 | 72 | Oh My God | Adele | 2006 | 73 | Party | Bad Bunny & Rauw Alejandro | 1993 | 74 | Better Days | NEIKED X Mae Muller X Polo G | 1964 | 75 | Rock And A Hard Place | Bailey Zimmerman | 1960 | 76 | Meet Me At Our Spot | THE ANXIETY: WILLOW & Tyler Cole | 1952 | 77 | Broadway Girls | Lil Durk ft. Morgan Wallen | 1925 | 78 | Despues de La Playa | Bad Bunny | 1906 | 79 | What Happened To Virgil | Lil Durk ft. Gunna | 1905 | 80 | You Should Probably Leave | Chris Stapleton | 1902 | 81 | Take My Name | Parmalee | 1890 | 82 | Like I Love Country Music | Kane Brown | 1859 | 83 | Last Night Lonely | Jon Pardi | 1858 | 84 | Never Say Never | Cole Swindell / Lainey Wilson | 1803 | 85 | Ojitos Lindos | Bad Bunny & Bomba Estereo | 1793 | 86 | Puffin On Zootiez | Future | 1764 | 87 | She's All I Wanna Be | Tate McRae | 1752 | 88 | Damn Strait | Scotty McCreery | 1748 | 89 | The Family Madrigal | Stephanie Beatriz, Olga Merediz & Encanto Cast | 1730 | 90 | Trouble With A Heartbreak | Jason Aldean | 1728 | 91 | Betty (Get Money) | Yung Gravy | 1717 | 92 | Kiss Me More | Doja Cat ft. SZA | 1685 | 93 | Rockin' Around The Christmas Tree | Brenda Lee | 1656 | 94 | Light Switch | Charlie Puth | 1648 | 95 | Beers On Me | Dierks Bentley, Breland & HARDY | 1641 | 96 | One Mississippi | Kane Brown | 1614 | 97 | To The Moon! | JNR CHOI & Sam Tompkins | 1584 | 98 | Sticky | Drake | 1564 | 99 | All Too Well (Taylor's Version) | Taylor Swift | 1516 | 100 | Heart On Fire | Eric Church | 1492 |
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Dylan :)
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Post by Dylan :) on Sept 20, 2022 16:15:42 GMT -5
It's not possible for Ghost to end up that high, right? It only has a week left on the Hot 100, and it's not gaining enough points to get to 7852
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Zoibator
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Post by Zoibator on Sept 20, 2022 16:15:45 GMT -5
So just like concluding, can we all agree that the top 12 is gonna be the following songs and might not be in that order:
1. Heat Waves 2. Stay 3. As it was 4. Easy on me 5. Shivers 6. Big energy 7. Ghost 8. First class 9. Super gremlin 10. Cold heart 11. About damn time 12. Wait for you
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rockgolf
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Post by rockgolf on Sept 20, 2022 16:17:21 GMT -5
It's not possible for Ghost to end up that high, right? It only has a week left on the Hot 100, and it's not gaining enough points to get to 7852 True. I don't account in the predictive for songs under #25 falling off after 52 weeks. It's only meant as a rough approximation.
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Dylan :)
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smth 'bout youu
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Post by Dylan :) on Sept 20, 2022 16:20:57 GMT -5
It's not possible for Ghost to end up that high, right? It only has a week left on the Hot 100, and it's not gaining enough points to get to 7852 True. I don't account in the predictive for songs under #25 falling off after 52 weeks. It's only meant as a rough approximation. And thank you for it! I look forward to it every week. Given how many repeats there are this year, I think DJ Earworm is going to struggle to get a list of 25 big hits, without using a lot of minor hits too
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Post by PositivityMaster48 on Sept 20, 2022 17:48:31 GMT -5
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Post by PositivityMaster48 on Sept 20, 2022 17:48:48 GMT -5
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𝓲𝓽'𝓼.𝓰𝓿
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Post by 𝓲𝓽'𝓼.𝓰𝓿 on Sept 20, 2022 18:56:31 GMT -5
- "We Don't Talk About Bruno" clinching Top 25 - "Glimpse of Us" getting a YE Top 50 placement - "Thinking 'Bout You" sneaking in hopefully - "Betty (Get Money)" getting enough points to clinch The #67 is in a toss coin situation, either it will place the first song in 17 years that is not solo credit ("Essence" which is currently at #66 based on PositivityMaster48's predictions) or "All I Want for Christmas is You" revisits it's 2020 YE position
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Post by reputainbow on Sept 21, 2022 0:11:36 GMT -5
{Week 45}1 Heat Waves (Glass Animals) 11561 2 Stay (Kid Laroi/Justin Bieber) 10391 3 As It Was (Harry Styles) 8872 4 Shivers (Ed Sheeran) 7561 5 Easy on Me (Adele) 7547 6 Super Gremlin (Kodak Black) 7265.4 7 Big Energy (Latto) 7260.8 8 Ghost (Justin Bieber) 7220 9 First Class (Jack Harlow) 6579 10 Cold Heart (Elton John/Dua Lipa) 6405 11 Bad Habits (Ed Sheeran) 6226 12 About Damn Time (Lizzo) 6011 13 Wait For U (Future/Drake/Tems) 5438 14 Enemy (Imagine Dragons/JID) 5400.8 15 That's What I Want (Lil Nas X) 5314 16 abcdefu (GAYLE) 5135.2 17 We Don't Talk About Bruno (Carolina Gaitan/Mauro Castillo/Adassa/Rhenzy Feliz/Diane Guerrero/Stephanie Beatriz/Encanto Cast) 5121.2 18 Woman (Doja Cat) 4814.2 19 Industry Baby (Lil Nas X/Jack Harlow) 4803 20 Need to Know (Doja Cat) 4546 21 Running Up That Hill (A Deal With God) (Kate Bush) 4281 22 Me Porto Bonito (Bad Bunny/Chencho Corleone) 3925 23 One Right Now (Post Malone/The Weeknd) 3659 24 Wasted on You (Morgan Wallen) 3636 25 Numb Little Bug (Em Beihold) 3485.6 26 Good 4 U (Olivia Rodrigo) 3387 27 Late Night Talking (Harry Styles) 3289 28 Titi Me Pregunto (Bad Bunny) 3287 29 Til You Can't (Cody Johnson) 3254.2 30 Break My Soul (Beyonce) 3176 31 Fancy Like (Walker Hayes) 3134 32 Save Your Tears (The Weeknd) 3117 33 Levitating (Dua Lipa) 3068 34 Sunroof (Nicky Youre/Dazy) 2880.2 35 Pushin P (Gunna/Future/Young Thug) 2875 36 I Like You (A Happier Song) (Post Malone/Doja Cat) 2833 37 Smokin Out the Window (Silk Sonic/Bruno Mars/Anderson .Paak) 2824.4 38 You Right (Doja Cat/The Weeknd) 2820 39 Boyfriend (Dove Cameron) 2763.6 40 You Proof (Morgan Wallen) 2740 41 Moscow Mule (Bad Bunny) 2719 42 I Hate U (SZA) 2696 43 Buy Dirt (Jordan Davis/Luke Bryan) 2628.4 44 Surface Pressure (Jessica Darrow) 2577.2 45 Hrs and Hrs (Muni Long) 2559 46 Bad Habit (Steve Lacy) 2537 47 Jimmy Cooks (Drake/21 Savage) 2476 48 In a Minute (Lil Baby) 2467.8 49 Mamiii (Becky G/Karol G) 2395.2 50 Love Nwantiti (Ah Ah Ah) (Ckay/Joeboy/Kuami Eugene) 2393.4 51 Sand In My Boots (Morgan Wallen) 2375.8 52 AA (Walker Hayes) 2340 53 Sweetest Pie (Megan Thee Stallion/Dua Lipa) 2320.8 54 Provenza (Karol G) 2271 55 Bam Bam (Camila Cabello/Ed Sheeran) 2250.2 56 Get Into It (Yuh) (Doja Cat) 2245.8 57 Knife Talk (Drake/21 Savage/Project Pat) 2198 58 Doin' This (Luke Combs) 2126.4 59 All I Want for Christmas Is You (Mariah Carey) 2124 60 Glimpse of Us (Joji) 2107 61 Something In the Orange (Zach Bryan) 2093.8 62 The Kind of Love We Make (Luke Combs) 2070 63 Fingers Crossed (Lauren Spencer-Smith) 2037.4 64 Essence (Wizkid/Tems/Justin Bieber) 2030 65 Oh My God (Adele) 1947.8 66 I Ain't Worried (OneRepublic) 1915.2 67 Despues De La Playa (Bad Bunny) 1909 68 She Had Me At Heads Carolina (Cole Swindell) 1890.4 69 Efecto (Bad Bunny) 1880.6 70 Party (Bad Bunny/Rauw Alejandro) 1877.4 71 Take My Name (Parmalee) 1875.2 72 Fall In Love (Bailey Zimmerman) 1851.8 73 What Happened to Virgil (Lil Durk/Gunna) 1851.8 74 Broadway Girls (Lil Durk/Morgan Wallen) 1847.4 75 Better Days (Neiked/Mae Muller/Polo G) 1845.4 76 Puffin on Zooties (Future) 1839.2 77 Meet Me At Our Spot (The Anxiety/Willow/Tyler Cole) 1799.4 78 You Should Probably Leave (Chris Stapleton) 1795.8 79 Never Say Never (Cole Swindell/Lainey Wilson) 1784.4 80 Flower Shops (ERNEST/Morgan Wallen) 1767.2 81 Vegas (Doja Cat) 1765.6 82 Like I Love Country Music (Kane Brown) 1753.8 83 Trouble With a Heartbreak (Jason Aldean) 1751.8 84 Damn Strait (Scotty McCreery) 1748.2 85 Rockin' Around the Christmas Tree (Brenda Lee) 1739 86 Circles Around This Town (Maren Morris) 1724.4 87 She's All I Wanna Be (Tate Mcrae) 1702.6 88 Ojitos Lindos (Bad Bunny/Bomba Estereo) 1700.4 89 All Too Well (Taylor's Version) (Taylor Swift) 1695 90 Beers on Me (Dierks Bentley/Breland/HARDY) 1676.4 91 To the Moon (Jnr Choi) 1633.2 92 The Family Madrigal (Stephanie Beatriz/Olga Merediz/Encanto Cast) 1631.4 93 Heart on Fire (Eric Church) 1612 94 One Mississippi (Kane Brown) 1574.4 95 Jingle Bell Rock (Bobby Helms) 1571 96 Light Switch (Charlie Puth) 1565.8 97 Kiss Me More (Doja Cat/SZA) 1548 98 Sticky (Drake) 1532.8 99 23 (Sam Hunt) 1531.6 100 She Likes It (Russell Dickerson/Jake Scott) 1488
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dremolus - solarpunk
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Post by dremolus - solarpunk on Sept 21, 2022 0:25:26 GMT -5
Just to show again that basing artist rankings solely off of the number of hits and YE placements is a dumb idea, if the projections are right: GAYLE, Em Beihold, and Cody Johnson will be above Beyonce which would mean they were bigger acts than her this year.
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Post by thatpolishboy on Sept 21, 2022 5:45:34 GMT -5
Just to show again that basing artist rankings solely off of the number of hits and YE placements is a dumb idea, if the projections are right: GAYLE, Em Beihold, and Cody Johnson will be above Beyonce which would mean they were bigger acts than her this year. I don't think anyone bases artist rankings of off YE placements.
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dremolus - solarpunk
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Post by dremolus - solarpunk on Sept 21, 2022 5:58:18 GMT -5
Just to show again that basing artist rankings solely off of the number of hits and YE placements is a dumb idea, if the projections are right: GAYLE, Em Beihold, and Cody Johnson will be above Beyonce which would mean they were bigger acts than her this year. I don't think anyone bases artist rankings of off YE placements. You should've read pg 32-33 of this thread then
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puwrpler04
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Post by puwrpler04 on Sept 21, 2022 13:40:36 GMT -5
Artists on YE week 45/52 140,000 is cutoff Using Positivity Master Predictions + (means a song has clinched since last month)
Bad Bunny 7 +4 (Me Porto Bonito,Titi Me Pregunto,Moscow Mule,+(Despuses De La Playa),+(Party),+(Efecto),+(Ojitos Lindos) _______________________________________________
Doja Cat 6 (Need To Know,Woman,You Right,I Like You,Get Into It (Yuh),Kiss Me More) _______________________________________________
Morgan Wallen 5 (Wasted On You,You Proof,Sand In My Boots,Broadway Girls,Flower Shops) _______________________________________________
Drake 3 (Wait For You,Knife Talk,Jimmy Cooks) Dua Lipa 3 (Cold Heart,Levitating,Sweetest Pie) Ed Sheeran 3 (Shivers,Bad Habits,Bam Bam) Future 3 +1 (Wait For You,Pushin P,+(Puffin On Zootiez) Justin Bieber 3 (Stay,Ghost,Essence The Weeknd 3 (One Right Now,Save Your Tears,You Right) _______________________________________________
21 Savage 2 (Knife Talk,Jimmy Cooks) Adele 2 (Easy On Me,Oh My God) Cole Swindell 2 +1 (+ She Had Me At Heads Carolina),Never Say Never) Gunna 2 (Pushin P,What Happened To Virgil?) Harry Styles 2 (As It Was,Late Night Talking) Jack Harlow 2 (First Class,Industry Baby) Karol G 2 (Provenza,MAMI) Lil Durk 2 (Broadway Girls,What Happened To Virgil?) Lil Nas X 2 (That’s What I Want,Industry Baby) Luke Combs 2 +1 (Doin This, + (The Kind Of Love We Make) Post Malone 2 (One Right Now,I Like You) SZA 2 (I Hate You,Kiss Me More) Tems 2 (Wait For You,Essence) Walker Hayes 2 (Fancy Like,AA) _______________________________________________
Bailey Zimmerman +1 (Fall In Love) Bobby Helms 1 (Holly Jolly Christmas) Becky G 1 (MAMI) Beyoncé 1 (Break My Soul) Bomba Estereo +1 (Ojitos Lindos) Brenda Lee 1 (Rocking Around The Christmas Tree) Burl Ives 1 (Holly Jolly Christmas) Camilla Cabello 1 (Bam Bam) Chencho Corleone 1 (Me Porto Bonito) Chris Stapleton 1 (You Should Probably Leave) Ckay 1 (Love Nwatiti) Cody Johnson 1 (Till You Can’t) Dazy 1 (Sunroof) Dove Cameron 1 (Boyfriend) Elton John 1 (Cold Heart) Em Beihold 1 (Numb Little Bug) Encanto Cast 1 (We Don’t Talk About Bruno) ERNEST 1 (Flower Shops) GAYLE 1 (abcdefu) Glass Animals 1 (Heat Waves) Imagine Dragons 1 (Enemy) Jason Aldean 1 (Trouble With A Heartbreak) Jessica Darrow 1 (Surface Pressure) JID 1 (Enemy) Joji +1 (Glimpse Of Us) Jordan Davis 1 (Buy Dirt) Kate Bush 1 (Running Up That Hill) Kid Laroi 1 (Stay) Kodak Black 1 (Super Gremlin) Lainey Wilson 1 (Never Say Never) Latto 1 (Big Energy) Lauren Spencer Smith 1 (Fingers Crossed) Lil Baby 1 (In A Minute) Lizzo 1 (About Damn Time) Luke Bryan 1 (Buy Dirt) Mae Muller 1 (Better Days) Mariah Carey 1 (All I Want For Christmas Is You) Megan Thee Stallion 1 (Sweetest Pie) Muni Long 1 (Hrs and Hrs) NEIKED 1 (Better Days) Nicky You’re 1 (Sunroof) Olivia Rodrigo 1 (Good 4 You) One Republic +1 (I Ain’t Worried) Parmalee 1 (Take My Name) PNAU 1 (Cold Heart) Polo G (Better Days) Project Pat 1 (Knife Talk) Rauw Alejandro +1 (Party) Scotty McCreery 1 (Damn Strait) SilkSonic 1 (Smokin Out The Window) Steve Lacy +1 (Bad Habit) Tate McRae 1 (She’s All I Wanna Be) Taylor Swift 1 (All Too Well) The Anxeity 1 (Meet Me At Our Spot) Wizkid 1 (Essence) Young Thug 1 (Pushin P) Zach Bryan +1 (Something In The Orange) _______________________________________________
*Ariana Grande 1 (if they count the SYT remix)
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kcdawg13
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Post by kcdawg13 on Sept 21, 2022 16:03:09 GMT -5
Looks like the official Top 20 is gonna be (in no particular order): 1. Heat Waves 2. As It Was 3. Stay 4. First Class 5. Easy On Me 6. Big Energy 7. Shivers 8. Ghost 9. About Damn Time 10. Wait For U 11. Super Gremlin 12. Cold Heart 13. Bad Habits 14. Thats What I Want 15. Enemy 16. Running Up That Hill 17. Me Porto Bonito 18. abcdefu 19. Woman 20. Industry Baby
Give or take a couple switch ups in the 18-20 range (Wasted On You could easily sneak in, and WDTAB could maybe clinch a spot). But the Top 17 seems firmly in place.
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85la
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Post by 85la on Sept 21, 2022 17:50:02 GMT -5
Just to show again that basing artist rankings solely off of the number of hits and YE placements is a dumb idea, if the projections are right: GAYLE, Em Beihold, and Cody Johnson will be above Beyonce which would mean they were bigger acts than her this year. What projections are showing, considering OVERALL Hot 100 points (not just singular rankings on the year-end Hot 100), that GAYLE, Em, and Cody will be above Beyonce? It's possible Beyonce could rank above all the others on the overall Hot 100 Artists list when considering all her entries in addition to BMS, especially since all the others you mention only have one entry this year. And then especially if you consider album consumption (which contributes to the overall Top Artists ranking, a better benchmark to use than just the Hot 100), Beyonce would surely beat them hands down. Even if all the other acts did beat her, it would be fair and square because they would simply have accumulated enough points from a chart perspective, which is what we are discussing and measuring here (separate from other rankings and measures of gauging "big acts," such as social or other media coverage, awards, critical acclaim, etc.), so how would that be in dispute?
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puwrpler04
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Post by puwrpler04 on Sept 21, 2022 22:22:46 GMT -5
Idk if this is too early but Here’s some early ideas of what could make next year YE list for 2023
As It Was Bad Habit You Proof I Ain’t Worried Hold Me Closer I’m Good (Blue) Under The Influence Die For You Music For A Sushi Restaurant Thought You Should Know (Assuming This Is The Next Single) Static
Wild Card Is the Bad Bunny Songs.Coukd Easily See Neverita get a singles push (because it got a video) or Me Porto Bonito Or Titi Me Pregunto hold up on streaming
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Post by nathanalbright on Sept 21, 2022 23:03:25 GMT -5
Don't forget the Christmas songs either.
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M5AGTS
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Post by M5AGTS on Sept 21, 2022 23:36:30 GMT -5
Idk if this is too early but Here’s some early ideas of what could make next year YE list for 2023 As It Was Bad Habit You Proof I Ain’t Worried Hold Me Closer I’m Good (Blue) Under The Influence Die For You Music For A Sushi Restaurant Thought You Should Know (Assuming This Is The Next Single) Static Wild Card Is the Bad Bunny Songs.Coukd Easily See Neverita get a singles push (because it got a video) or Me Porto Bonito Or Titi Me Pregunto hold up on streaming Honestly, I wouldn't be surprised if Efecto repeats as well.
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dremolus - solarpunk
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Post by dremolus - solarpunk on Sept 22, 2022 0:02:51 GMT -5
Just to show again that basing artist rankings solely off of the number of hits and YE placements is a dumb idea, if the projections are right: GAYLE, Em Beihold, and Cody Johnson will be above Beyonce which would mean they were bigger acts than her this year. What projections are showing, considering OVERALL Hot 100 points (not just singular rankings on the year-end Hot 100), that GAYLE, Em, and Cody will be above Beyonce? It's possible Beyonce could rank above all the others on the overall Hot 100 Artists list when considering all her entries in addition to BMS, especially since all the others you mention only have one entry this year. And then especially if you consider album consumption (which contributes to the overall Top Artists ranking, a better benchmark to use than just the Hot 100), Beyonce would surely beat them hands down. Even if all the other acts did beat her, it would be fair and square because they would simply have accumulated enough points from a chart perspective, which is what we are discussing and measuring here (separate from other rankings and measures of gauging "big acts," such as social or other media coverage, awards, critical acclaim, etc.), so how would that be in dispute? You misinterpreted what I meant: i meant that if u just went by hits, they'll be above I'm well aware actual artists rankings go by discography and album sales. I was just pointing out how going by singles is a fruitless idea
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inverse
2x Platinum Member
Your mind is in disturbia...
Joined: December 2015
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Post by inverse on Sept 22, 2022 16:24:28 GMT -5
Songs I think could repeat
-As It Was -Bad Habit -You Proof -I Ain't Worried -Wait For U -Me Porto Bonito -Vegas -Something In The Orange -Rock And A Hard Place -all 4 christmas songs
ADT & Sunroof both feel like very summery songs that will fall quickly in the coming months and I think SFG will be a 20 weeker like Way 2 Sexy was or at most a WAP type run where it gets 23-24 weeks and still falls short. Although I have been dead wrong about this song before.
Heat Waves 3Peat isn't out of the question either given that SYT lasted for 3 months at #17-20 it could easily do the same
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jasper0102
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I CAN GET BY THE DAYS JUST FINE BUT THE NIGHTS
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Post by jasper0102 on Sept 22, 2022 19:14:52 GMT -5
Heat Waves 3Peat isn't out of the question either given that SYT lasted for 3 months at #17-20 it could easily do the same Heat Waves making the 2023 year-end almost entirely depends on whether Taylor makes it go recurrent or not. If it survives, comes back after Christmas, and there’s no album bombs during the Spring, it’s gonna make it.
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Post by Baby Yoda Hot100Fan on Sept 22, 2022 20:59:37 GMT -5
^Agreed. To keep things in context, assuming it manages to chart during the first week of the Hot 100 that would count toward the 2023 Year-End, Heat Waves would be at 95 weeks then and need probably need to chart about 14 weeks total to make it. If we assume it would become recurrent for three weeks as Save Yours Tears did due to holiday songs last season, it would need to continue to chart in the April 8, 2023 dated Hot 100 in its 105th week.
Assuming an album bomb from Midnights makes it go recurrent that week, it would have charted for 92 weeks by then.
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Post by Baby Yoda Hot100Fan on Sept 22, 2022 21:52:42 GMT -5
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jasper0102
2x Platinum Member
I CAN GET BY THE DAYS JUST FINE BUT THE NIGHTS
Joined: May 2022
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Post by jasper0102 on Sept 22, 2022 23:05:17 GMT -5
A pretty interesting take on what the year-end charts could look like and some, interesting guesses on what songs will make it (Also someone in the comment section said that Cold Heart could be the Higher Of 2022. Take that as you will) So uh, the guy who made this made a second version a few days ago (Also inverse, if you watch this I recommend you to skip #96).
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inverse
2x Platinum Member
Your mind is in disturbia...
Joined: December 2015
Posts: 2,085
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Post by inverse on Sept 23, 2022 3:22:11 GMT -5
(Also inverse , if you watch this I recommend you to skip #96). Wow thanks now my ears have cancer
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Groovy
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Post by Groovy on Sept 23, 2022 10:48:07 GMT -5
I don't think AIW is going to 1 though on the YE which it a shame because it does feel like the biggest hit of 2022 by a lot now.
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mikerivera
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Post by mikerivera on Sept 23, 2022 11:58:26 GMT -5
I don't think AIW is going to 1 though on the YE which it a shame because it does feel like the biggest hit of 2022 by a lot now. Fwiw, on my list, it’s less than 60k away from catching Heat Waves for the spot. It should be able to surpass it in November. That feels much more accurate to the year.
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