M5AGTS
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Post by M5AGTS on Sept 23, 2022 22:19:15 GMT -5
2022 Billboard Year End List Final Predictions
Made 7/8 of the way through the billboard year.
1. Heat Waves 2. As It Was 3. Stay 4. Easy On Me 5. First Class 6. Big Energy 7. Ghost 8. About Damn Time 9. Shivers 10. Super Gremlin 11. Wait For U 12. Cold Heart 13. Bad Habits 14. That's What I Want 15. Enemy 16. Running Up That Hill 17. Me Porto Bonito 18. Industry Baby 19. Abcdefu 20. Need To Know 21. Woman 22. Late Night Talking 23. Wasted On You 24. I Like You 25. We Don't Talk About Bruno 26. You Proof 27. Titi Me Pregunto 28. Numb Little Bug 29. I Ain't Worried 30. Break My Soul 31. One Right Now 32. Bad Habit 33. Sunroof 34. The Kind Of Love We Make 35. Good 4 U 36. Till You Cant 37. Moscow Mule 38. Fancy Like 39. Save Your Tears 40. Levitating 41. Smoking Out The Window 42. Jimmy Cooks 43. You Right 44. Glimpse Of Us 45. Pushin P 46. She Had Me At Heads Carolina 47. Buy Dirt 48. I Hate U 49. Boyfriend 50. Vegas 51. Surface Pressure 52. Love Nwantiti Ah Ah Ah 53. Hrs And Hrs 54. Something In The Orange 55. In A Minute 56. Super Freaky Girl 57. Sand In My Boots 58. Mamiii 59. Efecto 60. AA 61. Knife Talk 62. Sweetest Pie 63. Provenza 64. Bam Bam 65. Essence 66. Get Into It Yuh 67. Fall In Love 68. Doin This 69. Oh My God 70. All I Want For Christmas Is You 71. Better Days 72. 5 Foot 9 73. Meet Me At Our Spot 74. Fingers Crossed 75. You Should Probably Leave 76. All Too Well 77. Rock And A Hard Place 78. Like I Love Country Music 79. Despues De La Playa 80. Party 81. Broadway Girls 82. Rockin Around The Christmas Tree 83. Take My Name 84. Unholy 85. Puffin On Zooties 86. What Happened To Virgil 87. Trouble With A Heartbreak 88. Ojitos Lindos 89. Jingle Bell Rock 90. Never Say Never 91. Damn Strait 92. Flower Shops 93. Kiss Me More 94. She's All I Wanna Be 95. To The Moon 96. Bones 97. Staying Alive 98. Holly Jolly Christmas 99. Betty 100. Circles Around This Town
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312999
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Post by 312999 on Sept 23, 2022 23:42:47 GMT -5
Wait a minute, could Doja Cat have 7 songs on the year end list this year as a lead???
You Right, Kiss Me More, Need To Know, Woman, Freaky Deaky, Get Into It, Vegas???
Not even counting features yet like I Like You.
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CF15
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Post by CF15 on Sept 24, 2022 0:28:11 GMT -5
I don't think AIW is going to 1 though on the YE which it a shame because it does feel like the biggest hit of 2022 by a lot now. Where are the album bombs when you actually need them? :/
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Post by plankton5165 on Sept 24, 2022 1:44:11 GMT -5
Here are the songs with good chances of appearing in the year-end twice: As It Was Bad Habit Super Freaky Girl Sunroof I Like You (A Happier Song) You Proof I Ainโt Worried Vegas Something In The Orange Iโm Good (blue) Under The Influence Unstoppable F.n.f (Letโs Go) Romantic Homicide 2 Be Loved (Am I Ready)
Expected to have Christmas songs to deal with: About Damn Time Late Night Talking Wait For U Me Porto Bonito Titi Me Pregunto The Kind Of Love We Make
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jasper0102
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Post by jasper0102 on Sept 24, 2022 1:54:53 GMT -5
I don't think AIW is going to 1 though on the YE which it a shame because it does feel like the biggest hit of 2022 by a lot now. Where are the album bombs when you actually need them? :/ Taylor and Lil Baby are coming in about a month. Sure, they're probably going to come too late to stop Heat Waves from getting the Year-End #1, but they could stop it from making the 2023 year-end.
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312999
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Post by 312999 on Sept 24, 2022 2:15:15 GMT -5
Where are the album bombs when you actually need them? :/ Taylor and Lil Baby are coming in about a month. Sure, they're probably going to come too late to stop Heat Waves from getting the Year-End #1, but they could stop it from making the 2023 year-end. Heat Waves really has a shot to make 3 year ends in a row? Wow.
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Post by nathanalbright on Sept 24, 2022 2:47:56 GMT -5
There is at least a plausible scenario for it, yes. Of course, it doing so may prompt the sort of "Ultra recurrency" that would take place after 104 weeks or so on the chart which might prompt the debut of the 104/10 rule, which would have some effects on charts going forward for songs like AIWFCIY and prospect of further songs being able to hit three or more year end hits aside from Christmas songs (and even them eventually).
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Post by ๐ฒ๐ฝ'๐ผ.๐ฐ๐ฟ on Sept 24, 2022 6:05:26 GMT -5
My Billboard Hot 100 Year-End predictions:
1. Glass Animals โ โHeat Wavesโ 2. Harry Styles โ โAs It Wasโ 3. The Kid LAROI, Justin Bieber โ โSTAYโ 4. Adele โ โEasy on Meโ 5. Jack Harlow โ โFirst Classโ 6. Latto โ โBig Energyโ 7. Ed Sheeran โ โShiversโ 8. Justin Bieber โ โGhostโ 9. Kodak Black โ โSuper Gremlinโ 10. Lizzo โ โAbout Damn Timeโ 11. Elton John, Dua Lipa, PNAU โ โCold Heartโ 12. Future f/ Drake, Tems โ โWAIT FOR Uโ 13. Ed Sheeran โ โBad Habitsโ 14. Lil Nas X โ โTHATโS WHAT I WANTโ 15. Imagine Dragons, JID โ โEnemyโ 16. Kate Bush โ โRunning Up That Hill (A Deal With God)โ 17. GAYLE โ โabcdefuโ 18. Bad Bunny f/ Chencho Corleone โ โMe Porto Bonitoโ 19. Lil Nas X f/ Jack Harlow โ โINDUSTRY BABYโ 20. Doja Cat โ โWomanโ 21. Morgan Wallen โ โWasted on Youโ 22. Harry Styles โ โLate Night Talkingโ 23. Doja Cat โ โNeed to Knowโ 24. Bad Bunny โ โTiti Me Preguntoโ 25. Encanto Cast โ โWe Donโt Talk About Brunoโ 26. Post Malone f/ Doja Cat โ โI Like You (A Happier Song) 27. Morgan Wallen โ โYou Proofโ 28. Nicky Youre, Dazy โ โSunroofโ 29. Steve Lacy โ โBad Habitโ 30. Post Malone, The Weeknd โ โOne Right Nowโ 31. Olivia Rodrigo โ โgood 4 uโ 32. Beyonce โ โBREAK MY SOULโ 33. Em Beihold โ โNumb Little Bugโ 34. OneRepublic โ โI Ainโt Worriedโ 35. Bad Bunny โ โMoscow Muleโ 36. Cody Johnson โ โTil You Canโtโ 37. Luke Combs โ โThe Kind of Love We Makeโ 38. Walker Hayes โ โFancy Likeโ 39. Drake f/ 21 Savage โ โJimmy Cooksโ 40. The Weeknd, Ariana Grande โ โSave Your Tearsโ 41. Doja Cat โ โVegasโ 42. Dua Lipa โ โLevitatingโ 43. Bruno Mars, Anderson .Paak, Silk Sonic โ โSmokinโ Out the Windowโ 44. Zach Bryan โ โSomething in the Orangeโ 45. Doja Cat, The Weeknd โ โYou Rightโ 46. Joji โ โGlimpse of Usโ 47. Gunna, Future, Young Thug โ โPushin Pโ 48. Jordan Davis f/ Luke Bryan โ โBuy Dirtโ 49. SZA โ โI Hate Uโ 50. Cole Swindell โ โShe Had Me at Heads Carolinaโ 51. Nicki Minaj โ โSuper Freaky Girlโ 52. Bailey Zimmerman โ โFall in Loveโ 53. Dove Cameron โ โBoyfriendโ 54. Jessica Darrow โ โSurface Pressureโ 55. CKay โ โLove Nwantiti (Ah Ah Ah)โ 56. Lil Baby โ โIn a Minuteโ 57. Muni Long โ โHrs and Hrsโ 58. Morgan Wallen โ โSand in My Bootsโ 59. Becky G, Karol G โ โMAMIIIโ 60. Drake f/ 21 Savage, Project Pat โ โKnife Talkโ 61. Walker Hayes โ โAAโ 62. Megan Thee Stallion, Dua Lipa โ โSweetest Pieโ 63. Bad Bunny โ โEfectoโ 64. Tyler Hubbard โ โ5 Foot 9โ 65. Karol G โ โProvenzaโ 66. Camila Cabello f/ Ed Sheeran โ โBam Bamโ 67. Mariah Carey โ โAll I Want for Christmas is Youโ 68. WizKid f/ Tems, Justin Bieber โ โEssenceโ 69. Doja Cat โ โGet Into It (Yuh)โ 70. Luke Combs โ โDoinโ Thisโ 71. NEIKED, Mae Muller, Polo G โ โBetter Daysโ 72. Adele โ โOh My Godโ 73. Lauren Spencer-Smith โ โFingers Crossedโ 74. The ANXIETY, Willow Smith, Tyler Cole โ โMeet Me at Our Spotโ 75. Taylor Swift โ โAll Too Well (Taylorโs Version)โ 76. Chris Stapleton โ โYou Should Probably Leaveโ 77. Bailey Zimmerman โ โRock and a Hard Placeโ 78. Bad Bunny โ โDespues de la Playaโ 79. Kane Brown โ โLike I Love Country Musicโ 80. Lil Durk, Morgan Wallen โ โBroadway Girlsโ 81. Bad Bunny, Rauw Alejandro โ โPartyโ 82. Brenda Lee โ โRockinโ Around the Christmas Treeโ 83. Future โ โPUFFIN ON ZOOTIEZโ 84. Lil Durk f/ Gunna โ โWhat Happened to Virgilโ 85. Jason Aldean โ โTrouble With a Heartbreakโ 86. Parmalee โ โTake My Nameโ 87. Yung Gravy โ โBetty (Get Money)โ 88. Bad Bunny, Bomba Estereo โ โOjitos Lindosโ 89. Doja Cat f/ SZA โ โKiss Me Moreโ 90. Imagine Dragons โ โBonesโ 91. Bobby Helms โ โJingle Bell Rockโ 92. Jelly Roll โ โSon of a Sinnerโ 93. Scotty McCreery โ โDamn Straitโ 94. Cole Swindell, Lainey Wilson โ โNever Say Neverโ 95. ERNEST f/ Morgan Wallen โ โFlower Shopsโ 96. Tate McRae โ โSheโs All I Wanna Beโ 97. Burl Ives โ โA Holly Jolly Christmasโ 98. DJ Khaled f/ Drake, Lil Baby โ โSTAYING ALIVEโ 99. Jnr Choi, Sam Thompkins โ โTo the Moon!โ 100. Dustin Lynch f/ MacKenzie Porter โ โThinking โBout Youโ
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joshtheking
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Post by joshtheking on Sept 24, 2022 8:46:30 GMT -5
Wait a minute, could Doja Cat have 7 songs on the year end list this year as a lead??? You Right, Kiss Me More, Need To Know, Woman, Freaky Deaky, Get Into It, Vegas??? Not even counting features yet like I Like You. Freaky Deaky will not make it, but otherwise she will have 7 total songs with 6 being as a lead
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M5AGTS
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Post by M5AGTS on Sept 24, 2022 10:28:24 GMT -5
100. Dustin Lynch f/ MacKenzie Porter โ โThinking โBout Youโ Please be true. I really hope you're right. Also, we have the exact same top 16 except for 7-10. That area is messy as hell rn for predictions. Hoping I'm right, cause that means Ghost comes out on top.
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joshtheking
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Post by joshtheking on Sept 25, 2022 8:35:41 GMT -5
Any chances for So Good to make it seem to be lost, it's freefalling on radio. A shame
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Post by ๐ฒ๐ฝ'๐ผ.๐ฐ๐ฟ on Sept 25, 2022 16:51:22 GMT -5
When seeing M5AGTS' YE predictions, I was thinking "what was the Unholy song he's referring to?" Then after hearing the song, I may think his prediction may be right, there's a good chance it can clinch in a YE spot if the points within the next few weeks are enough to do so
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M5AGTS
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Post by M5AGTS on Sept 25, 2022 16:56:44 GMT -5
When seeing M5AGTS' YE predictions, I was thinking "what was the Unholy song he's referring to?" Then after hearing the song, I may think his prediction may be right, there's a good chance it can clinch in a YE spot if the points within the next few weeks are enough to do so If I am right this time around that will be quite a bit of points I'll have to subtract from my 3/4 predictions lol. But how I kind of figured that out is I remembered how on mikeramps halfway standings prediction video on YouTube aiw had easily had its spot clinched and it only had 5 weeks. Unholy on the other hand has 6 weeks. And by the way the general public is just eating it up, 6 weeks should definitely be enough time.
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Post by ๐ฒ๐ฝ'๐ผ.๐ฐ๐ฟ on Sept 25, 2022 17:02:32 GMT -5
When seeing M5AGTS' YE predictions, I was thinking "what was the Unholy song he's referring to?" Then after hearing the song, I may think his prediction may be right, there's a good chance it can clinch in a YE spot if the points within the next few weeks are enough to do so If I am right this time around that will be quite a bit of points I'll have to subtract from my 3/4 predictions lol. But how I kind of figured that out is I remembered how on mikeramps halfway standings prediction video on YouTube aiw had easily had its spot clinched and it only had 5 weeks. Unholy on the other hand has 6 weeks. And by the way the general public is just eating it up, 6 weeks should definitely be enough time. Also, Sam Smith managed to get a YE spot before with a song that was released around this time as well (referring to "Too Good at Goodbyes" back in 2017) Assuming "Unholy" does get that Top 2 debut, it's possible to do so within the next 6 weeks (and definitely an easy candidate for a 2023 YE re-entry spot)
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M5AGTS
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Post by M5AGTS on Sept 25, 2022 17:18:11 GMT -5
If I am right this time around that will be quite a bit of points I'll have to subtract from my 3/4 predictions lol. But how I kind of figured that out is I remembered how on mikeramps halfway standings prediction video on YouTube aiw had easily had its spot clinched and it only had 5 weeks. Unholy on the other hand has 6 weeks. And by the way the general public is just eating it up, 6 weeks should definitely be enough time. Also, Sam Smith managed to get a YE spot before with a song that was released around this time as well (referring to "Too Good at Goodbyes" back in 2017) Assuming "Unholy" does get that Top 2 debut, it's possible to do so within the next 6 weeks (and definitely an easy candidate for a 2023 YE re-entry spot) It should get that #1 debut pretty handily. Bad Habit is just not getting there, and As It Was is losing everywhere at this point. It should be able to get a #1 debut and stay until Taylor Swift comes. That's four weeks at #1. And even then while Taylor will be #1 the last two weeks of the year it should still be at #2 both of those weeks. Therefore its 2022 run should look like this 1-1-1-1-2-2. That's definitely a run that makes the year end list. Also it becoming a hit next year is an absolute no brainer.
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jasper0102
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Post by jasper0102 on Sept 25, 2022 17:32:22 GMT -5
Uh, given how Unholy has fallen past Bad Habit on Apple Music (#6 is nothing to scoff at, though), and i doubt Itโs going to stay above Bad Habit on Spotify for a 3rd day, I doubt any of that will be happening. Anyway, given these 2 songs will likely go recurrent on Lil Baby album bomb week (more because of recurrent rules then Lil Baby), what are the chances they make it? Last Night Lonely Sleazy Flow
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scrohr424
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Post by scrohr424 on Sept 26, 2022 8:06:26 GMT -5
In other news, I'm Good (Blue) is gaining fast, but it probably joined too little too late to make it. What do you think the odds are for that one?
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Post by waluigionascooter on Sept 26, 2022 12:01:25 GMT -5
In other news, I'm Good (Blue) is gaining fast, but it probably joined too little too late to make it. What do you think the odds are for that one? As of right how its unlikely, it has to surge into the Top 10, likely the Top 5 to make it. But its not impossible, it could pull a Havana.
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jebsib
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Post by jebsib on Sept 26, 2022 14:06:07 GMT -5
Is there no path where AIW gets #1?
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jasper0102
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Post by jasper0102 on Sept 26, 2022 21:43:18 GMT -5
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Post by nathanalbright on Sept 27, 2022 1:42:37 GMT -5
Is there no path where AIW gets #1? Blame it on longevity, there is just not enough time in the year, no, for As It Was to get the chart points to overcome Heat Waves for the year.
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Abbaschand
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Post by Abbaschand on Sept 27, 2022 7:56:56 GMT -5
Time for another projection from yours truly!
1 Heat Waves 2 Stay 3 As It Was 4 Big Energy 5 Ghost 6 Shivers 7 Super Gremlin 8 Cold Heart 9 First Class 10 About Damn Time
11 Bad Habits 12 Easy On Me 13 Wait For U 14 That's What I Want 15 Enemy 16 Wasted on You (+1) 17 Me Porto Bonito (-1) 18 Woman (+1) 19 Running Up That Hill (+1) 20 ABCDEFU
21 Industry Baby 22 Need to Know 23 I Like You (+2) 24 Titi Me Pregunto 25 Late Night Talking (-2) 26 Sunroof 27 We Don't Talk About Bruno 28 You Proof 29 Bad Habit 30 One Right Now
31 Break My Soul 32 The Kind of Love We Make (+4) 33 Numb Little Bug 34 Moscow Mule (-2) 35 Good 4 U (-1) 36 Jimmy Cooks (-1) 37 In a Minute 38 I Ain't Worried 39 Save Your Tears 40 Til You Can't
41 Fancy Like 42 Levitating 43 Something In the Orange 44 Glimpse of Us 45 She Had Me at Heads Carolina 46 Vegas 47 You Right (+1) 48 Boyfriend (+1) 49 Smokin' Out the Window (+1) 50 Pushin' P (+1)
51 Super Freaky Girl (-4) 52 I Hate U 53 Buy Dirt 54 Hrs and Hrs 55 Fall in Love 56 Surface Pressure 57 Mamiii 58 Love Nwantiti 59 5 Foot 9 60 Sweetest Pie
61 Sand In My Boots 62 Provenza 63 AA 64 Bam Bam 65 Rock and a Hard Place 66 Knife Talk 67 Essence (+1) 68 Get Into It (+1) 69 Efecto (+1) 70 Fingers Crossed (+1)
71 Doin' This (+2) 72 Party (+2) 73 Oh My God (+2) 74 Left and Right (+2) 75 Like I Love Country Music (-3) 76 Meet Me At Our Spot (+1) 77 Better Days (+1) 78 Despues de La Playa (+1) 79 Take My Name (+2) 80 Broadway Girls (+2)
81 What Happened to Virgil (+2) 82 You Should Probably Leave (+2) 83 Son of a Sinner (+2) 84 Ojitos Lindos (+3) 85 Last Night Lonely (-18) 86 Betty (-6) 87 Never Say Never (+1) 88 Sleazy Flow (+1) 89 Damn Strait (+2) 90 Trouble with a Heartbreak (+2)
91 She's All I Wanna Be (+2) 92 All I Want for Christmas Is You (+2) 93 Puffin' on Zootiez (+2) 94 The Family Madrigal (+2) 95 Numb (+2) 96 Kiss Me More (+3) 97 Staying Alive (-7) 98 Unstoppable (+2) 99 Light Switch (RE) 100 One Mississippi (NE)
With the demise of Sticky and the HUGE drop for Hot S**t, Light Switch returns to my projections, and One Mississippi got the #100 spot. I personally would love to see 2 Kane Brown songs on the Year-End list.
Side note: Here are the songs that won't make the cut.
101 Beers on Me 102 To the Moon! 103 So Good 104 Sticky 105 Thousand Miles 106 Thinking 'bout You 107 Flower Shops 108 Rockin' Around the Christmas Tree 109 23 110 Whiskey On You
111 All Too Well 112 To Be Loved by You 113 F.N.F. 114 Circles Around This Town 115 Heart On Fire 116 Hold Me Closer 117 Wishful Drinking 118 Cooped Up 119 Tarot 120 Who Want Smoke??
121 Jingle Bell Rock 122 Hot 123 Way 2 Sexy 124 If I Was a Cowboy 125 Happier Than Ever 126 I'm Good 127 Last Last 128 A Holly Jolly Christmas 129 Victoria's Secret 130 What Else Can I Do?
131 When You're Gone 132 Bones 133 Free Mind 134 Dos Oruguitas 135 Me or Sum 136 2step 137 Do We Have a Problem? 138 She Likes It
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Post by PositivityMaster48 on Sept 27, 2022 16:48:36 GMT -5
Double whammy for yโall this week.
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Post by PositivityMaster48 on Sept 27, 2022 16:50:22 GMT -5
And hereโs an analysis of the last six weeks of the YE.
Certain: 92) 5 Foot 9 Will lock in 2 weeks. Song #92 to pass the locked cutoff (140,000 points). 93) Super Freaky Girl Will lock in 2 weeks. Song #93 to pass the locked cutoff (140,000 points). 94) Rock And A Hard Place Will lock in 3 weeks. Song #94 to pass the locked cutoff (140,000 points). Very Likely: 95) Last Night Lonely Despite peaking on country radio a while back, it is still relatively stable in this format. Streaming is still relatively good as well. As long as it doesn't take a sharp fall on both radio and streaming it will make the list. Likely: 96) She Likes It Country radio is still playing this song slowly but surely and its streaming is still okay although it has dipped since it first debut. It should make the YE unless it loses all its streaming numbers and drops below #100. Toss Up: 97) Son Of A Sinner The streaming for this song seems to have peaked but country radio is starting to play this song more. As long as its streaming doesn't take that much of a dive in the next month or two its rises on country radio should allow this song to barely scrape by at the bottom of the YE on the final week. Unlikely: N/A: Betty (Get Money) This song is starting to bleed on streaming and its gains on pop and rhythmic radio have slowed down. Unless it gets its streaming back this song will probably end up being caught between years. N/A: Left And Right All this song really has is radio, and it appears pop and hot ac radio for this song will peak at any time. I expect this to fall off the charts within the next few weeks and miss the YE. Very Unlikely: N/A: F.N.F (Let's Go) It did get a gain from the remix but it's still losing on the radio and streaming is still slowly fading. I doubt this will survive recurrency with Lil Baby and Taylor Swift's album bombs coming up. N/A: Numb See everything about Left And Right except this song is even lower in terms of total YE points gained so far. N/A: Staying Alive This song is bleeding on streaming and its gains on rhythmic and urban radio are too slow to makeup for it. This will be caught between years at best. N/A: Bones This song is starting to bleed on pop and hot ac radio. It won't avoid recurrency and will be far from making the YE. N/A: Unstoppable Although pop radio is rising fast (which is all it has apart from hot ac radio), it is just too little too late. Will be most likely caught between years. N/A: Sleazy Flow This song peaked on urban radio last week, and its streaming numbers have long faded out. Except this to start dropping like a rock soon. No Chance: N/A: Unholy This song needs an average of 23,000 points per week to make the YE (a total of around 138,000 points). It would literally need to debut at #1 by a big margin and stay there for 6 weeks to even have a shot. I think a lot of people may be overestimating its YE chances, because it might not even debut at #1 on its first week, so I'm highly skeptical of its YE chances. Below Locked Cutoff: Assuming all the certain, very likely, likely, and tossup songs make it, here is what the bottom of the YE will look like. Note that the order of these songs can be anything due to the margin of error between them, meaning all of them still have a chance at making the proper YE, even if they're projected to miss. If in the case that the 4 Christmas songs get removed, The Family Madrigal and Heart On Fire also have a chance at making the YE.
98) Beers On Me 99) One Mississippi 100) To The Moon 101) Circles Around This Town 102) Thinking 'Bout You
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312999
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Post by 312999 on Sept 27, 2022 17:05:31 GMT -5
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Post by PositivityMaster48 on Sept 27, 2022 17:08:19 GMT -5
Well.. that debuted too late to make this yearโs YE but will likely make 2023โs YE.
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Post by ๐ฒ๐ฝ'๐ผ.๐ฐ๐ฟ on Sept 27, 2022 18:08:01 GMT -5
"Thinking 'Bout You" becoming the 2022 YE equivalent of "Beautiful" from the 2019 YE of me wanting it to sneak in the bottom of the YE list so bad, hoping that the margin of error favours it
EDIT: It would suck if "Betty (Get Money)" gets caught between years
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M5AGTS
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Post by M5AGTS on Sept 27, 2022 18:24:11 GMT -5
"Thinking 'Bout You" becoming the 2022 YE equivalent of "Beautiful" from the 2019 YE of me wanting it to sneak in the bottom of the YE list so bad, hoping that the margin of error favours it EDIT: It would suck if "Betty (Get Money)" gets caught between years First of all, Betty is definitely not getting caught in between years. It should easily be a hit next year, if not both. But I definitely agree with you on Thinking Bout You. I really hope it makes it. It's a fantastic song.
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M5AGTS
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Post by M5AGTS on Sept 28, 2022 1:08:19 GMT -5
Does anyone know what Boyfriend's top 50 chances are?
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rockgolf
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Post by rockgolf on Sept 28, 2022 12:41:58 GMT -5
As I said in the all-time thread, for personal reasons, I'm not going to be able to do this much longer. I hope to be able to complete the 2022 Billboard calendar year but I don't plan to start on 2023. For the week of Oct 1, 2022, my predictions: Do I really think As It Was is #1? No. My prediction algorithm rewards longer stays at the top of the chart, but I never expected a song to spend six months in the top two. As we're getting close to the official year-end, I've added some close calls. And the predictive chart is as follows. Only 6 charts left in the Billboard calendar year. EST Year end | Song | Artist | YE Est Pts | 1 | As It Was | Harry Styles | 15585 | 2 | Heat Waves | Glass Animals | 12613 | 3 | Stay | The Kid LAROI & Justin Bieber | 11106 | 4 | Ghost | Justin Bieber | 7962 | 5 | Easy On Me | Adele | 7889 | 6 | First Class | Jack Harlow | 7778 | 7 | Big Energy | Latto | 7575 | 8 | Shivers | Ed Sheeran | 7534 | 9 | About Damn Time | Lizzo | 7145 | 10 | Super Gremlin | Kodak Black | 7044 | 11 | Cold Heart (PNAU Remix) | Elton John & Dua Lipa | 6833 | 12 | Bad Habits | Ed Sheeran | 6433 | 13 | Wait For U | Future ft. Drake & Tems | 6380 | 14 | Thats What I Want | Lil Nas X | 5719 | 15 | Enemy | Imagine Dragons X JID | 5326 | 16 | We Don't Talk About Bruno | Carolina Gaitan, Mauro Castillo, Adassa, Rhenzy Feliz, Diane Guerrero, Stephanie Beatriz & Encanto Cast | 5195 | 17 | abcdefu | GAYLE | 4976 | 18 | Running Up That Hill (A Deal With God) | Kate Bush | 4940 | 19 | Me Porto Bonito | Bad Bunny & Chencho Corleone | 4930 | 20 | Woman | Doja Cat | 4903 | 21 | Wasted On You | Morgan Wallen | 4892 | 22 | Industry Baby | Lil Nas X & Jack Harlow | 4846 | 23 | Need To Know | Doja Cat | 4800 | 24 | I Like You (A Happier Song) | Post Malone ft. Doja Cat | 4607 | 25 | Bad Habit | Steve Lacy | 4471 | 26 | Titi Me Pregunto | Bad Bunny | 4462 | 27 | Late Night Talking | Harry Styles | 4384 | 28 | Sunroof | Nicky Youre & dazy | 4351 | 29 | You Proof | Morgan Wallen | 4137 | 30 | Break My Soul | Beyonce | 3910 | 31 | One Right Now | Post Malone & The Weeknd | 3899 | 32 | Numb Little Bug | Em Beihold | 3707 | 33 | Good 4 U | Olivia Rodrigo | 3627 | 34 | Moscow Mule | Bad Bunny | 3531 | 35 | The Kind Of Love We Make | Luke Combs | 3529 | 36 | Jimmy Cooks | Drake ft. 21 Savage | 3527 | 37 | Save Your Tears | The Weeknd & Ariana Grande | 3439 | 38 | Fancy Like | Walker Hayes | 3338 | 39 | Levitating | Dua Lipa | 3314 | 40 | I Ain't Worried | OneRepublic | 3272 | 41 | 'Til You Can't | Cody Johnson | 3259 | 42 | In A Minute | Lil Baby | 3185 | 43 | Glimpse Of Us | Joji | 3121 | 44 | You Right | Doja Cat & The Weeknd | 3047 | 45 | Something In The Orange | Zach Bryan | 3037 | 46 | She Had Me At Heads Carolina | Cole Swindell | 3001 | 47 | Boyfriend | Dove Cameron | 2951 | 48 | Pushin P | Gunna & Future ft. Young Thug | 2903 | 49 | Smokin Out The Window | Silk Sonic (Bruno Mars & Anderson .Paak) | 2901 | 50 | Vegas | Doja Cat | 2900 | 51 | I Hate U | SZA | 2852 | 52 | Buy Dirt | Jordan Davis ft. Luke Bryan | 2830 | 53 | Super Freaky Girl | Nicki Minaj | 2771 | 54 | Hrs And Hrs | Muni Long | 2740 | 55 | Surface Pressure | Jessica Darrow | 2718 | 56 | MAMIII | Becky G X Karol G | 2582 | 57 | Love Nwantiti (Ah Ah Ah) | CKay | 2559 | 58 | Sand In My Boots | Morgan Wallen | 2529 | 59 | Sweetest Pie | Megan Thee Stallion & Dua Lipa | 2472 | 60 | Fall In Love | Bailey Zimmerman | 2459 | 61 | AA | Walker Hayes | 2438 | 62 | Provenza | Karol G | 2424 | 63 | Bam Bam | Camila Cabello ft. Ed Sheeran | 2365 | 64 | 5 Foot 9 | Tyler Hubbard | 2338 | 65 | Knife Talk | Drake ft. 21 Savage & Project Pat | 2333 | 66 | Essence | Wizkid ft. Justin Bieber & Tems | 2182 | 67 | Fingers Crossed | Lauren Spencer-Smith | 2175 | 68 | Get Into It (Yuh) | Doja Cat | 2131 | 69 | Efecto | Bad Bunny | 2128 | 70 | Doin' This | Luke Combs | 2128 | 71 | All I Want For Christmas Is You | Mariah Carey | 2104 | 72 | Rock And A Hard Place | Bailey Zimmerman | 2082 | 73 | Party | Bad Bunny & Rauw Alejandro | 2072 | 74 | Oh My God | Adele | 2006 | 75 | Better Days | NEIKED X Mae Muller X Polo G | 1964 | 76 | Meet Me At Our Spot | THE ANXIETY: WILLOW & Tyler Cole | 1952 | 77 | Despues de La Playa | Bad Bunny | 1951 | 78 | Broadway Girls | Lil Durk ft. Morgan Wallen | 1925 | 79 | What Happened To Virgil | Lil Durk ft. Gunna | 1905 | 80 | Like I Love Country Music | Kane Brown | 1902 | 81 | You Should Probably Leave | Chris Stapleton | 1902 | 82 | Take My Name | Parmalee | 1890 | 83 | Ojitos Lindos | Bad Bunny & Bomba Estereo | 1869 | 84 | Never Say Never | Cole Swindell / Lainey Wilson | 1803 | 85 | Puffin On Zootiez | Future | 1764 | 86 | She's All I Wanna Be | Tate McRae | 1752 | 87 | Damn Strait | Scotty McCreery | 1748 | 88 | The Family Madrigal | Stephanie Beatriz, Olga Merediz & Encanto Cast | 1730 | 89 | Trouble With A Heartbreak | Jason Aldean | 1728 | 90 | Kiss Me More | Doja Cat ft. SZA | 1685 | 91 | Rockin' Around The Christmas Tree | Brenda Lee | 1656 | 92 | Light Switch | Charlie Puth | 1648 | 93 | Beers On Me | Dierks Bentley, Breland & HARDY | 1641 | 94 | Last Night Lonely | Jon Pardi | 1637 | 95 | One Mississippi | Kane Brown | 1614 | 96 | Betty (Get Money) | Yung Gravy | 1588 | 97 | To The Moon! | JNR CHOI & Sam Tompkins | 1584 | 98 | Sticky | Drake | 1564 | 99 | Sleazy Flow | SleazyWorld Go ft. Lil Baby | 1530 | 100 | All Too Well (Taylor's Version) | Taylor Swift | 1516 |
The predictive points for both Stay and Ghost are overstated. The latter is certainly on its last week on the chart (52 week rule), and the former might also be (if it fails to stay top 25).
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