Billboard Hot 100: 04/09/2022

[Groovy]

Mar 28, 2022 15:07:50 GMT -5 nathanalbright said:

But how much is that worth?

Not much but that doesn't matter to me, it's just the fact that it's there that matters. 

[nathanalbright]

Fair enough. I mean, it's gotta be good for a few hundred sales at least, right?

[notgoodenglish]

Hope Will Smith charts

[nathanalbright]

He's got more slaps than a lot of people, that's for sure.

[chartfreak]

Most Top Five Hot 100 Hits
29, The Beatles
28, Madonna
27, Mariah Carey
27, Drake
24, Janet Jackson
23, Rihanna
21, Elvis Presley (with the start of his career having predated the chart’s inception)
20, Justin Bieber
20, Michael Jackson
20, Stevie Wonder
19, Whitney Houston
19, Elton John
19, Taylor Swift

So Mariah can tie Madonna if she debuts high enough?

[nathanalbright]

Assuming the track goes to the top 5 and the remix is credited, yes.

[atg]

Big Energy and Harry’s lead single WILL NOT go to #1…


Hopefully that’s enough to power a uno reverse card.

[garrettlen]

Mar 28, 2022 12:11:07 GMT -5 edward said:

Mar 28, 2022 11:03:52 GMT -5 dremolus - solarpunk said:

Seems like we're finally having a new song at no.1 based on the hype and how his last album did!

Why are some people on this thread so sure that Harry’s next single is a sure fire #1 debut? Do people really think he’s reached the level of a Bieber or a Taylor where a #1 right out of the gate is all but guaranteed? Because I don’t really think so. Not yet anyway.

[rimetm]

An artist whose previous era was known for the incredible longevity of some of its singles (while others that were critically well-received dropped like a stone in the US after a pre-album run or got a lengthy but ultimately fruitless run buoyed by a pop radio push) and whose prior vying for the #1 spot was only possible (late in the song's run) thanks to chart strategies that have patched out since, that's who we're assuming can just debut at #1 out of the gate?

Why does that sound familiar?

That's because it applies just as well to Dua Lipa as it does to Harry Styles. Remember how just a while back, some on this forum were all in on "Sweetest Pie" debuting at the pole position prerelease? Take heed to notice when hype seeps into predictions, y'all.

SPOILER: Click to show

{In order of description}Don't Start Now, Physical, Love Again, Levitating
Adore You, Lights Up, Golden, Watermelon Sugar

[nathanalbright]

This is very sound.

[Ｓｏｕｎｄｃｌ🕤ｃｋ]

I'm ready to be surprised, but I think he'll debut at #1.

His previous lead single debuted with ~175 points, and I think he'll easily surpass that...but again, let's hear the song first.

[phieaglesfan712]

A huge reason why Sweetest Pie and Take My Breath flopped is because both artists had multiple songs still charting when those songs were released. Harry, on the other hand, hasn’t chatted in the Hot 100 in nearly a year since Golden fell off.

[Gary]

Sweetest Pie was widely predicted here to be the first smash hit of the Spring of 2022


Fact check:

A huge reason why Sweetest Pie and Take My Breath flopped is because both artists had multiple songs still charting when those songs were released.

Megan Thee Stallion -- only other chart single for 2022 prior to Sweetest Pie -- Megan's Piano (#97) in February -- last significant hit was 'Thot Shit' back in July

I know this board is aching for the next big #1 debut, but is that really Harry Styles?

A new pop release that is all hyped up to be the #1 debut again -- anything can happen of course but doesn't mean it will be.

[phieaglesfan712]

I was referring to Dua and Abel.

[Gary]

Sweetest Pie was a recent release so I commented on that


Take My Breath was released 7-8 months ago - but except Christmas -- each week since then has had 4 songs charting

The Weeknd has two of the longest running sings in history - nowhere to go from there but down - they all can't be mega hits - but it does look like he is still getting hits

[kindofbiased]

all the discussion about whether or not it'll go #1 is making me so paranoid lmao

anyways that Big Energy remix! Love that DJ Khaled was on it for all of 10 seconds! Like everyone predicted!

[atg]

Mar 28, 2022 20:57:07 GMT -5 Gary said:

Sweetest Pie was a recent release so I commented on that


Take My Breath was released 7-8 months ago - but except Christmas -- each week since then has had 4 songs charting

The Weeknd has two of the longest running sings in history - nowhere to go from there but down - they all can't be mega hits - but it does look like he is still getting hits

He’s got his all time hits so he’s all good. One literally the biggest song, and the other approaching the top 100 (which some are forgetting is still a big deal, this is the biggest hits of *all time*).

It’s ok if things go downhill from here, some people on here forget that he was getting these big smash hits since 2015. And even then, it felt like Abel was underperforming after BBTM going into Starboy and then MDM.

After Hours broke out of that curse and massively surpassed the BBTM singles, but now a new curse has been set, affecting Dawn FM and possibly the next album After Life (is the placeholder name for now). If he gets no more top 10’s, let alone #1’s, then that’s fine. I feel like people are expecting another BL sized hit from him which is ridiculous.

[loveless]

Mar 28, 2022 19:46:12 GMT -5 rimetm said:

An artist whose previous era was known for the incredible longevity of some of its singles (while others that were critically well-received dropped like a stone in the US after a pre-album run or got a lengthy but ultimately fruitless run buoyed by a pop radio push) and whose prior vying for the #1 spot was only possible (late in the song's run) thanks to chart strategies that have patched out since, that's who we're assuming can just debut at #1 out of the gate?

Why does that sound familiar?

That's because it applies just as well to Dua Lipa as it does to Harry Styles. Remember how just a while back, some on this forum were all in on "Sweetest Pie" debuting at the pole position prerelease? Take heed to notice when hype seeps into predictions, y'all.

SPOILER: Click to show

{In order of description}Don't Start Now, Physical, Love Again, Levitating
Adore You, Lights Up, Golden, Watermelon Sugar

I would be really surprised at this point if Harry didn't debut at number one, and if so I feel like it would have to be like a Sign of the Times where he releases something super unfriendly to the current charts, or Lights Up where his team doesn't push it on radio at all.

The Dua comparison makes sense in theory, but Harry's pretty consistently had a lot more first week hype than her. Even without radio support, Lights Up debuted at 17 compared to Don't Start Now's 35, and about half of Fine Line charted in it's debut week as opposed to none of Future Nostalgia. I wouldn't really use her as a basis for guessing his debut numbers.

[Rose "Payola" Nylund]

I mean, we have examples of artists with massive eras following it up with an instant #1, and other examples of artists with massive eras following it up with a flop. Harry could pull a Weeknd or he could pull an Bieber. I think a case can be made for and against either scenario from happening and rather than trying to convince everyone that it will 100% be one or the other, why don't we all just place our bets and then wait and see what actually does happen once the song drops and the numbers start rolling in.

[singingrulebritannia]

Hands up if, at the end of last year, you predicted the 3rd top 10 debut of 2022 might only occur in the last week of March, and could involve a brother-sister group from Central Washington playing corridos and being featured on a YouTube talent show

[Choco]

Harry's lead likely has more budget and went through more quality control than Dua's collab that isn't apparently meant for any album so I expect it to be a significantly better track at least (I think SP is doing poorly because it's a bad song and her label allowed it because she has nothing to lose until her next album is done)

[Abbaschand]

Remember Sangria Wine? People predicted it to be the Song of the Summer. Look what happened after.

[nathanalbright]

I try not get hyped up and instead look at the data.

[After Minutes]

Mar 28, 2022 21:33:32 GMT -5 Rose "Payola" Nylund said:

I mean, we have examples of artists with massive eras following it up with an instant #1, and other examples of artists with massive eras following it up with a flop. Harry could pull a Weeknd or he could pull an Bieber. I think a case can be made for and against either scenario from happening and rather than trying to convince everyone that it will 100% be one or the other, why don't we all just place our bets and then wait and see what actually does happen once the song drops and the numbers start rolling in.

But why are we assuming that Justin himself could pull a Bieber? Remember, that, aside from Peaches, most of the Justice singles performed pretty poorly and Stay didn't debut at #1. What I think truly matters is less the name recognition of the artist's and more how well the songs actually stick with people. Sweetest Pie won't be the YE #1 not because Dua isn't relevant, but because the song was bad. That is also why Sacrifice was an underperformance - it didn't connect with people the way at least three other songs did during the album drop week. People need to genuinely like a song for it to be a smash with big longevity

[ontopofthis]

Megan's team needed to put someone big on streaming like SZA on Sweetest Pie similar to Doja Cat and Kiss Me More

Even if it manages to reach the top ten because of airplay and a very weak Hot 100, she will not be able to launch an album with that song

[thegreatdivine]

Mar 29, 2022 1:31:20 GMT -5 After Minutes said:

Mar 28, 2022 21:33:32 GMT -5 Rose "Payola" Nylund said:

I mean, we have examples of artists with massive eras following it up with an instant #1, and other examples of artists with massive eras following it up with a flop. Harry could pull a Weeknd or he could pull an Bieber. I think a case can be made for and against either scenario from happening and rather than trying to convince everyone that it will 100% be one or the other, why don't we all just place our bets and then wait and see what actually does happen once the song drops and the numbers start rolling in.

But why are we assuming that Justin himself could pull a Bieber? Remember, that, aside from Peaches, most of the Justice singles performed pretty poorly and Stay didn't debut at #1. What I think truly matters is less the name recognition of the artist's and more how well the songs actually stick with people. Sweetest Pie won't be the YE #1 not because Dua isn't relevant, but because the song was bad. That is also why Sacrifice was an underperformance - it didn't connect with people the way at least three other songs did during the album drop week. People need to genuinely like a song for it to be a smash with big longevity

This is absolutely true. I feel like as chart watchers, because sometimes we hear songs that sound like hits on the first listen based on how catchy they are or how decent they are in terms of quality, we immediately assume that because of those factors they'll perform well and sometimes, that happens but not entirely because of those two factors. The biggest factor in any song becoming a massive hit — especially one which endures — is wholly based on how much people connect with it. If enough people connect with a song, it doesn't even matter if the song is objectively "good" or catchy, it will do well regardless because people will keep going back to it and sometimes, even if there's an initial reluctance from radio to support said song, it will eventually get radio support when radio programmers see how much support it's getting via streams/sales.

Of course, there are certain big-name acts who can will a song to a massive debut on the charts just off the strength of their names and nothing else but any song people don't truly connect with won't last more than a few weeks before falling off. That's true for every song that's ever gone on to become a smash hit.

[phieaglesfan712]

Mar 29, 2022 1:31:20 GMT -5 After Minutes said:

Mar 28, 2022 21:33:32 GMT -5 Rose "Payola" Nylund said:

I mean, we have examples of artists with massive eras following it up with an instant #1, and other examples of artists with massive eras following it up with a flop. Harry could pull a Weeknd or he could pull an Bieber. I think a case can be made for and against either scenario from happening and rather than trying to convince everyone that it will 100% be one or the other, why don't we all just place our bets and then wait and see what actually does happen once the song drops and the numbers start rolling in.

But why are we assuming that Justin himself could pull a Bieber? Remember, that, aside from Peaches, most of the Justice singles performed pretty poorly and Stay didn't debut at #1. What I think truly matters is less the name recognition of the artist's and more how well the songs actually stick with people. Sweetest Pie won't be the YE #1 not because Dua isn't relevant, but because the song was bad. That is also why Sacrifice was an underperformance - it didn't connect with people the way at least three other songs did during the album drop week. People need to genuinely like a song for it to be a smash with big longevity

For me, Stay is a de facto #1 debut. Stay didn’t debut at #1 mostly in part of BTS mass buying. It had 302 points in its debut week, a point total no song had achieved through a quarter of 2022 and one that would have led the most recent Hot 100 by over 30%. In fact, Stay didn’t drop below the point total of the most recent Hot 100 #1 until its 30th week. (I was looking back at some of the weeks Stay wasn't #1, and found one where Stay had like 29.6M streams, 12.7k sales, and 73.6M radio. Not only did Stay not win the #1 race, it didn't even lead a metric that week! Those point totals would have easily swept the metrics on the most recent Hot 100.)

[Rose "Payola" Nylund]

Mar 29, 2022 1:31:20 GMT -5 After Minutes said:

Mar 28, 2022 21:33:32 GMT -5 Rose "Payola" Nylund said:

I mean, we have examples of artists with massive eras following it up with an instant #1, and other examples of artists with massive eras following it up with a flop. Harry could pull a Weeknd or he could pull an Bieber. I think a case can be made for and against either scenario from happening and rather than trying to convince everyone that it will 100% be one or the other, why don't we all just place our bets and then wait and see what actually does happen once the song drops and the numbers start rolling in.

But why are we assuming that Justin himself could pull a Bieber? Remember, that, aside from Peaches, most of the Justice singles performed pretty poorly and Stay didn't debut at #1. What I think truly matters is less the name recognition of the artist's and more how well the songs actually stick with people. Sweetest Pie won't be the YE #1 not because Dua isn't relevant, but because the song was bad. That is also why Sacrifice was an underperformance - it didn't connect with people the way at least three other songs did during the album drop week. People need to genuinely like a song for it to be a smash with big longevity

None of that was really my point anyway.

And there’s no reason why how a song starts out or how it performs can’t be a combination of a bunch of different things. People want it to be one factor that causes it to debut at number one or flop and it will never be. There’s going to be multiple factors that include the song itself, the artists, the promo, the time of year, how the artists last project did, the hype, whether it’s a standalone, the day of the week, the label, the alignment of the stars, the temperature in California, what Meg Ryan had for dinner, etc, etc, etc.

[KeepDeanWeird]

Mar 29, 2022 6:38:55 GMT -5 Rose "Payola" Nylund said:

Mar 29, 2022 1:31:20 GMT -5 After Minutes said:

But why are we assuming that Justin himself could pull a Bieber? Remember, that, aside from Peaches, most of the Justice singles performed pretty poorly and Stay didn't debut at #1. What I think truly matters is less the name recognition of the artist's and more how well the songs actually stick with people. Sweetest Pie won't be the YE #1 not because Dua isn't relevant, but because the song was bad. That is also why Sacrifice was an underperformance - it didn't connect with people the way at least three other songs did during the album drop week. People need to genuinely like a song for it to be a smash with big longevity

None of that was really my point anyway.

And there’s no reason why how a song starts out or how it performs can’t be a combination of a bunch of different things. People want it to be one factor that causes it to debut at number one or flop and it will never be. There’s going to be multiple factors that include the song itself, the artists, the promo, the time of year, how the artists last project did, the hype, whether it’s a standalone, the day of the week, the label, the alignment of the stars, the temperature in California, what Meg Ryan had for dinner, etc, etc, etc.

Bad Habits 'weak' debut certainly didn't reflect its strength. In many respects, it defied the conventional chart run expected from a highly anticipated lead single from a major artist.

[jaffery]

Holy would have debut at #1 very very easily as well if it came out as a lead today, anyone might have debut at #1 too. Stay definitely and peaches did