How would the Hot 100 go in 1999...

[plankton5165]

Had airplay only songs still been banned? (I couldn't also fit this in the title.)

I'm aware of songs being seriously pushed down in December 1998 thanks to the removal of the rule. I'm also aware if not for the rule, there may be more songs from the '98 year-end that would get repeats in the '99 year-end.

1999 was actually the year I was born. XD

[phieaglesfan712]

One obvious change is that Deborah Cox’s “Nobody’s Supposed To Be Here” would have topped the 12/5/1998 chart.

[jenglisbe]

Apr 19, 2022 15:41:45 GMT -5 phieaglesfan712 said:

One obvious change is that Deborah Cox’s “Nobody’s Supposed To Be Here” would have topped the 12/5/1998 chart.

Why would that be the case? #1 that week was "I'm Your Angel" due to its sales from a commercial single.

Airplay only songs that made the top 10 during 1999 include "I Knew I Loved You," "Steal My Sunshine," "All Star," and "I Want it That Way." I don't know that any of them ultimately kept something else from hitting the top 10, maybe just from a higher peak. In every chart week, the majority of the top 10 on the Hot 100 had some form of a physical single. The reality is that in 1999 it was still tough for airplay-only songs to do really well, so by and large most top 10s (and all #1s) had some form of a physical single, even if it was a limited release. plankton5165

[WolfSpear]

Might have seen more #1 debuts as it was common to build on airplay before the commercial release:

[Gary]

For fun

The test charts for 11/21/98 and 11/28/1998 right before it became offical


11/21/1998 title artist

1 DOO WOP(THAT THING) LAURYN HILL
2 LATELY DIVINE
3 NOBODY'S SUPPOSED TO BE HERE DEBORAH COX
4 THE FIRST NIGHT MONICA
5 HOW DEEP IS YOUR LOVE DRU HILL FEATURING REDMAN
6 IRIS GOO GOO DOLLS
7 BECAUSE OF YOU 98 DEGREES
8 THIS KISS FAITH HILL
9 ONE WEEK BARENAKED LADIES
10 LOVE LIKE THIS FAITH EVANS
11 ARE YOU THAT SOMEBODY? AALIYAH
12 THANK U ALANIS MORISSETTE
13 CRUSH JENNIFER PAIGE
14 LULLABY SHAWN MULLINS
15 I'LL BE EDWIN MCCAIN
16 SAVE TONIGHT EAGLE-EYE CHERRY
17 WESTSIDE TQ
18 HAVE YOU EVER? BRANDY
18 TOUCH IT MONIFAH
19 MY FAVORITE MISTAKE SHERYL CROW
20 COME AND GET WITH ME KEITH SWEAT FEATURING SNOOP DOGG
21 I DON'T WANT TO MISS A THANG AEROSMITH
22 JUMPER THIRD EYE BLIND
23 LOVE ME 112 FEATURING MASE
24 I'LL NEVER BREAK YOUR HEART BACKSTREET BOYS
25 MY LITTLE SECRET XSCAPE
26 THE POWER OF GOOD-BYE MADONNA
27 HANDS JEWEL
28 WIDE OPEN SPACES DIXIE CHICKS
29 I STILL LOVE YOU NEXT
30 SLIDE GOO GOO DOLLS


11/28/1998 title artist
1 DOO WOP(THAT THING) LAURYN HILL
2 LATELY DIVINE
3 NOBODY'S SUPPOSED TO BE HERE DEBORAH COX
4 THE FIRST NIGHT MONICA
5 BECAUSE OF YOU 98 DEGREES
6 HOW DEEP IS YOUR LOVE DRU HILL FEATURING REDMAN
7 IRIS GOO GOO DOLLS
8 LOVE LIKE THIS FAITH EVANS
9 THIS KISS FAITH HILL
10 ONE WEEK BARENAKED LADIES
11 THANK U ALANIS MORISSETTE
12 LULLABY SHAWN MULLINS
13 ARE YOU THAT SOMEBODY? AALIYAH
14 SAVE TONIGHT EAGLE-EYE CHERRY
15 I'LL BE EDWIN MCCAIN
16 JUMPER THIRD EYE BLIND
17 CRUSH JENNIFER PAIGE
18 HAVE YOU EVER? BRANDY
19 MY FAVORITE MISTAKE SHERYL CROW
20 WESTSIDE TQ
21 LOVE ME 112 FEATURING MASE
22 TOUCH IT MONIFAH
23 TRIPPIN' TOTAL(FEATURING MISSY ELLIOT)
24 HANDS JEWEL
25 SLIDE GOO GOO DOLLS
26 THE POWER OF GOOD-BYE MADONNA
27 COME AND GET WITH ME KEITH SWEAT FEATURING SNOOP DOGG
28 …BABY ONE MORE TIME BRITNEY SPEARS
29 I DON'T WANT TO MISS A THANG AEROSMITH
30 I STILL LOVE YOU NEXT

[phieaglesfan712]

Where was I'm Your Angel in those test charts?

[Gary]

11/28 #46
11/21 #53

[WolfSpear]

Billboard still doesn’t recognize the #1 debut of “I’m Your Angel”… which is more like revisionist history to me, but I don’t write the rules. I can’t remember what the explanation was but I know Fred or Gary answered me on one of the Chart Beats circa 2009.

[Gary]

It wasn’t an true debut at number one.

The magazine where I got the test charts from show it came in from number 46 on 11/28

Granted it wasn’t published on 11/28 but it was in LW column on 12/5

[phieaglesfan712]

Nobody’s Supposed To Be Here has to be on the short list of honorary #1’s. This one was a multi-week #2 around a rule change. If not for the rule change, it would have certainly been a #1. The only other song that has as strong a case for honorary #1 is Gangnam Style.

[85la]

Apr 20, 2022 12:26:54 GMT -5 Gary said:

It wasn’t an true debut at number one.

The magazine where I got the test charts from show it came in from number 46 on 11/28

Granted it wasn’t published on 11/28 but it was in LW column on 12/5

Which was from a test chart, not a real chart, hence it did debut at #1, regardless of whether it was in the "Last Week" column. Billboard clearly put the test chart's statistics there for demonstrative and "what-if" purposes, I guess because it seemed more logical for them to provide the continuity of showing what the previous week's positions would have been if the current week's rules were in place. But the fact that they are using this demonstrative listing to trump the actual, real published charts and saying that I'm Your Angel didn't debut at #1 is very faulty logic, and I will never understand why they continue to do this.

[Gary]

'The Not a pure #1 debut' reason was the official explanation

On 'Nobody's Supposed to Be Here' honorary #1 if you'd like but rule change or not 'I'm Your Angel' would have been #1 regardless the 46 to 1 jump was due to the single release

[renfield75]

It is interesting that they don't consider "I'm Your Angel" a number one debut because it had been on the test chart but they don't consider the Dixie Chicks' "Wide Open Spaces" a Top 40 hit even though it had been in the top 40 on the test charts (but was #41 on the 12/5/98 chart).

The extra weird circumstance with "I'm Your Angel" is that the revamped Hot 100 happened the week IYA's commercial single impacted the chart. It would have been number one on 12/5/98 regardless, but if the change had happened a week earlier or the single released a week later the point would be moot.

[phieaglesfan712]

The biggest takeaway out of all of this is the fact that Iris was still #9 in December (and #6 on the test chart 2 weeks earlier) even though it was well past its peak. This shows that it would have probably given TBIM a run for its money for some of its weeks at #1 if AirPlay only songs were allowed to chart 6 months earlier. TBIM may have got all 13 weeks at #1 during the summer of 1998, but I can tell you that Iris almost was as big.

[SPRΞΞ]

I could've sworn The Power of Goodbye was #11 right before the test chart and then it fell to #26 after.

[simonf]

I know its been mentioned on here loads before but I still wonder what the chart would have looked like for between 1995-1998 if some of the biggest hits had been given a singles release. I am sure I'll Be There for You, Killing Me Softly, Men in Black, Don't Speak, Iris and Torn would have all been US #1s had they been given a release. I know labels wanted to promote the album but I am still surprised they didn't give them a limited release to enable them to chart on the Hot 100.

[Edith Puthie]

Apr 20, 2022 15:38:26 GMT -5 SPRΞΞ said:

I could've sworn The Power of Goodbye was #11 right before the test chart and then it fell to #26 after.

I think you're confused?  It was #11 on the last published Hot 100 of November, and then fell to #30 on the published December 5th chart using the new system.  Gary posted the 2 test charts for reference.

[SPRΞΞ]

Apr 20, 2022 16:34:15 GMT -5 simonf said:

I know its been mentioned on here loads before but I still wonder what the chart would have looked like for between 1995-1998 if some of the biggest hits had been given a singles release. I am sure I'll Be There for You, Killing Me Softly, Men in Black, Don't Speak, Iris and Torn would have all been US #1s had they been given a release. I know labels wanted to promote the album but I am still surprised they didn't give them a limited release to enable them to chart on the Hot 100.

did "I'll be There For You" really not chart on the Hot 100? To this date, it was the fastest climb to #1 on Chr/Top 40, with 4 weeks that I've ever seen. 27-12-5-1

[iHype.]

I'm Your Angel not being a #1 debut makes absolutely no sense, and if Billboard re-evaulated that today it certainly would be a #1 debut.

Those test charts do not get referenced in chart history in any form for chart runs/achievements, nor did they reference any other test charts with unveilings of other new formulas. Harlem Shake, for example, would also likely not be a #1 debut, if they were to reference a test chart from the week prior with YouTube. That song had 100 million streams when it officially debuted, it likely was very well getting notable streams the week prior that would've also had it high on a test chart including YouTube.

As for how the charts would've looked in 1999 with airplay-only tracks still excluded
- No #1 songs would've changed, as the first song airplay-only track to go #1 wasn't until Summer 2000
- No Scrubs would have been a #1 debut
- Save Tonight, Hands, Iris, Lullaby, Slide, All Star, and Steal My Sunshine would've not charted and thus not been top 10 hits.
- Taking Everything would've been the only song to be a top 10 hit that was not excluding airplay-only tracks every week.

The 1999 chart was still pretty heavily sales influenced in the upper reaches actually. The top 10 usually was songs with relatively high sales ratios. Below top 20 was then when you started seeing most tracks charting from airplay.

[Devil Marlena Nylund]

Was there a test chart made available the week Harlem Shake debuted at number one? Assuming that song has massive streaming the week before (when those streams weren’t eligible to contribute to the chart), then it’s basically the same situation of a rule change resulting in a new entry coming in at number one*.

(* dismissing the point made a few posts up about IYA likely being number one regardless of whether the rules were changed or not for that week. The point is is that the existence of the test chart deemed it ineligible for that ‘honour’ but in similar situations other times, it wasn’t the case.)

[HolidayGuy]

"I'll Be There For You" eventually charted at No. 17, as it was on the same single as The Rembrandt's then-latest single, "This House Is Not a Home."

[WolfSpear]

Imagine where Natalie Imbruglia’s “Torn” would have landed… somewhere in the top 10. Instead, it settled at a very misleading #42. This is why you have to look at all the charts to paint the complete picture…

[Gary]

Apr 21, 2022 8:06:08 GMT -5 WolfSpear said:

Imagine where Natalie Imbruglia’s “Torn” would have landed… somewhere in the top 10. Instead, it settled at a very misleading #42. This is why you have to look at all the charts to paint the complete picture…

It would have been #1

Before streaming 10+ week airplay #1's also were Hot 100 #1's --( even now most still do hit #1)

[phieaglesfan712]

Apr 21, 2022 8:06:08 GMT -5 WolfSpear said:

Imagine where Natalie Imbruglia’s “Torn” would have landed… somewhere in the top 10. Instead, it settled at a very misleading #42. This is why you have to look at all the charts to paint the complete picture…

The fact that airplay songs were ineligible to chart in 1997 and 1998 only makes IBMY and TBIM being ranked ahead of Despacito on the summer songs chart look even stupider. No question IBMY and TBIM don’t have as many weeks at #1 if AirPlay only songs counted. Despacito was the clear GOAT of summer songs, and Billboard still finds a way to screw that up, lol.

[jenglisbe]

Apr 20, 2022 15:08:02 GMT -5 phieaglesfan712 said:

The biggest takeaway out of all of this is the fact that Iris was still #9 in December (and #6 on the test chart 2 weeks earlier) even though it was well past its peak. This shows that it would have probably given TBIM a run for its money for some of its weeks at #1 if AirPlay only songs were allowed to chart 6 months earlier. TBIM may have got all 13 weeks at #1 during the summer of 1998, but I can tell you that Iris almost was as big.

We have a thread for this, and "Iris" would have peaked at #4:
pulsemusic.proboards.com/thread/186852/charts-airplay-tracks-charted-90s

Apr 21, 2022 8:52:04 GMT -5 phieaglesfan712 said:

Apr 21, 2022 8:06:08 GMT -5 WolfSpear said:

Imagine where Natalie Imbruglia’s “Torn” would have landed… somewhere in the top 10. Instead, it settled at a very misleading #42. This is why you have to look at all the charts to paint the complete picture…

The fact that airplay songs were ineligible to chart in 1997 and 1998 only makes IBMY and TBIM being ranked ahead of Despacito on the summer songs chart look even stupider. No question IBMY and TBIM don’t have as many weeks at #1 if AirPlay only songs counted. Despacito was the clear GOAT of summer songs, and Billboard still finds a way to screw that up, lol.

This isn't true at all. "TBIM" would have still had all of its weeks at #1 with airplay-only songs included.

[phieaglesfan712]

Apr 21, 2022 9:11:17 GMT -5 jenglisbe said:

Apr 20, 2022 15:08:02 GMT -5 phieaglesfan712 said:

The biggest takeaway out of all of this is the fact that Iris was still #9 in December (and #6 on the test chart 2 weeks earlier) even though it was well past its peak. This shows that it would have probably given TBIM a run for its money for some of its weeks at #1 if AirPlay only songs were allowed to chart 6 months earlier. TBIM may have got all 13 weeks at #1 during the summer of 1998, but I can tell you that Iris almost was as big.

We have a thread for this, and "Iris" would have peaked at #4:
pulsemusic.proboards.com/thread/186852/charts-airplay-tracks-charted-90s

Apr 21, 2022 8:52:04 GMT -5 phieaglesfan712 said:

The fact that airplay songs were ineligible to chart in 1997 and 1998 only makes IBMY and TBIM being ranked ahead of Despacito on the summer songs chart look even stupider. No question IBMY and TBIM don’t have as many weeks at #1 if AirPlay only songs counted. Despacito was the clear GOAT of summer songs, and Billboard still finds a way to screw that up, lol.

This isn't true at all. "TBIM" would have still had all of its weeks at #1 with airplay-only songs included.

Iris was #9 in on the 12/5 chart (and #6 two weeks earlier), and it was well past its prime. Iris would have seriously challenged TBIM for some of its weeks when it was at its prime during the summer. But regardless of whether Iris would have gotten there or not, it doesn’t change the fact that IBMY and TBIM didn’t have to face some of its toughest competition because of a rule barring these songs from charting.

[Gary]

Rather than repeat the posts over again about the Summer Songs chart

The original thread is here

pulsemusic.proboards.com/thread/205960/billboards-top-summer-hits-siriusxm

[jenglisbe]

Apr 21, 2022 9:38:43 GMT -5 phieaglesfan712 said:

Apr 21, 2022 9:11:17 GMT -5 jenglisbe said:

We have a thread for this, and "Iris" would have peaked at #4:
pulsemusic.proboards.com/thread/186852/charts-airplay-tracks-charted-90s

This isn't true at all. "TBIM" would have still had all of its weeks at #1 with airplay-only songs included.

Iris was #9 in on the 12/5 chart (and #6 two weeks earlier), and it was well past its prime. Iris would have seriously challenged TBIM for some of its weeks when it was at its prime during the summer. But regardless of whether Iris would have gotten there or not, it doesn’t change the fact that IBMY and TBIM didn’t have to face some of its toughest competition because of a rule barring these songs from charting.

That is simply not true. There can be a huge gap between #1 and #9, though, especially since "The Boy is Mine" and other songs had big sales totals. It's not as simple as you are making it out to be, and more so "Iris" would have been closer to #1 when Aerosmith and Monica were on top. For the record:
-In the August 29, 1998 issue of Billboard, it's mentioned that "I Don't Wanna Miss A Thing" would have been #7 on the Hot 100 based on airplay only. It was #2 in airplay behind "Iris" that week.
-In the October 3, 1998 issue "I Don't Want To Miss A Thing" actually took over Hot 100 Airplay and "Iris" was #2. "IDWTMAT" was #2 on the Hot 100 and that was despite it also being #14 in sales.
-Billboard revealed the test chart for October 31, 1998 and "Iris" would have been #4 if eligible for the Hot 100.

You are correct in saying "TBIM" and "IBMY" didn't have to face as tough of competition, but that's not at all because of the chart rule barring other songs from charting. It's because labels weren't releasing physical singles for a lot of popular songs. Airplay-only songs charting in 1997 and 1998 would not have prevented any of the songs that were #1 from being #1 or from having their songs stay as #1 as long as they did. The only way those runs might have changed is if labels had released physical singles for songs like "Iris" and "Men in Black." More labels definitely could have done the limited single release thing that helped "My Heart Will Go On," "One Week" and "I Don't Wanna Miss A Thing" get to #1.

[renfield75]

Apr 21, 2022 10:21:43 GMT -5 jenglisbe said:

Apr 21, 2022 9:38:43 GMT -5 phieaglesfan712 said:

Iris was #9 in on the 12/5 chart (and #6 two weeks earlier), and it was well past its prime. Iris would have seriously challenged TBIM for some of its weeks when it was at its prime during the summer. But regardless of whether Iris would have gotten there or not, it doesn’t change the fact that IBMY and TBIM didn’t have to face some of its toughest competition because of a rule barring these songs from charting.

That is simply not true. There can be a huge gap between #1 and #9, though, especially since "The Boy is Mine" and other songs had big sales totals. It's not as simple as you are making it out to be, and more so "Iris" would have been closer to #1 when Aerosmith and Monica were on top. For the record:
-In the August 29, 1998 issue of Billboard, it's mentioned that "I Don't Wanna Miss A Thing" would have been #7 on the Hot 100 based on airplay only. It was #2 in airplay behind "Iris" that week.
-In the October 3, 1998 issue "I Don't Want To Miss A Thing" actually took over Hot 100 Airplay and "Iris" was #2. "IDWTMAT" was #2 on the Hot 100 and that was despite it also being #14 in sales.
-Billboard revealed the test chart for October 31, 1998 and "Iris" would have been #4 if eligible for the Hot 100.

You are correct in saying "TBIM" and "IBMY" didn't have to face as tough of competition, but that's not at all because of the chart rule barring other songs from charting. It's because labels weren't releasing physical singles for a lot of popular songs. Airplay-only songs charting in 1997 and 1998 would not have prevented any of the songs that were #1 from being #1 or from having their songs stay as #1 as long as they did. The only way those runs might have changed is if labels had released physical singles for songs like "Iris" and "Men in Black." More labels definitely could have done the limited single release thing that helped "My Heart Will Go On," "One Week" and "I Don't Wanna Miss A Thing" get to #1.

Exactly...the only way to get a truly accurate picture of what was popular then would be if every song had a sales component. But they didn't, so it will only ever be guessing and speculation. "Killing Me Softly", "Don't Speak", etc would almost certainly have topped the Hot 100 with a commercial single release but there wasn't one so we can never really know.

[85la]

One small caveat is that I believe Billboard did confirm that My Heart Will Go On would have been #1 on airplay alone for at least one additional week before its physical release (it was #1 for 4 weeks already on the airplay chart before it debuted at #1 on the Hot 100), so this might have taken weeks away or possibly eliminated the #1 runs of Nice & Slow and/or Together Again (which were #1 for 2 each of those 4 weeks), but this is the only case I believe, and everything else previously said about #1's not changing still stands.