M5AGTS
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Post by M5AGTS on Sept 4, 2022 21:19:58 GMT -5
Honestly the decider for question 2 is Taylor Swift. Maybe Bad Habit but I don't see it happening. Honestly, at this point, I actually don't see Bad Habit going #1. I see it being blocked by aiw and Taylor.
Also I would love to see Taylor dethrone Harry, cause that would be a huge coincidence since Harry dethroned Taylor back in 2020.
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enwhy
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Post by enwhy on Sept 4, 2022 23:48:42 GMT -5
1. No - All of Me was a fluke and I donโt expect him to have much chart success in the future. 2. 13 or less weeks - This is a tough one. It really depends on when/if Taylor will release a lead single before the album drops. 3. No - Samples are huge right now, but I doubt theyโll stay in the top 3 consistently. To clarify, #3 is asking whether a song including a hit sample will spend at least 1 week in the Top 3. I just edited the wording for clarity!
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Post by big2000 on Sept 5, 2022 0:04:57 GMT -5
Understood. I changed my post accordingly.
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Post by Limited Edition on Sept 8, 2022 16:11:46 GMT -5
Q1: No Q2: C Q3: No
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enwhy
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Post by enwhy on Sept 8, 2022 16:31:31 GMT -5
1. No - he done 2. C - Radio seems to have no new songs right now and so As It Was is falling super slowly. Yes, Taylor will probably have a week at #1, but I doubt she'll have multiple. 3. Yes - Between Super Freaky Girl, I'm Good (Blue), Vegas, etc...I would be surprised if no samples managed to land a week in the top 3.
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Post by Baby Yoda Hot100Fan on Sept 8, 2022 16:50:07 GMT -5
1. No 2. B 3. Yes
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85la
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Post by 85la on Sept 8, 2022 17:35:27 GMT -5
Interestingly, for what it's worth, John Legend did debut a song this week (9/10 chart) as one of the featured artists on DJ Khaled's God Did, but obviously doesn't count because the question if for the 9/24 chart when his album debuts.
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enwhy
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Post by enwhy on Sept 10, 2022 9:57:54 GMT -5
Here's this week's score update! Question 17A: Where will "Hold Me Closer" debut on the Hot 100?Of 11 predictors, only 2 predicted that HMC would land in the top 10. Congrats to @imhappy259 and mms82 (18%) for winning a nice total of 55 points! Question 17B: Will any song's off JID's "The Forever Story" land on the Hot 100?A total whiff for all of us - JID failed to debut anything ("Dance Now" was the closest, at #13 on the Bubbling Under). All 11 predictors guessed JID would chart, so no one earns any points. The last time this happened was a similar situation with Tate McRae's album in June, which similarly failed to chart any songs. Question 10D: What will Get Into It's peak be by the end of summer?With GIIY going recurrent a couple of weeks ago, this one looks to be done. The official peak was #20. Congrats to 85la and korbel16 (2/9, 22%) who both got this one exactly right! They will each get 45 points. Overall, 5 guessed it would peak higher, and 2 guessed lower. Question 7A: Which already-released song will place the highest on Billboard's Songs Of The Summer chart?"As It Was" dominated the season and earned the title of Song Of The Summer. Here's what we all guessed back in June: 7 (58%) - As It Was - Placed #1 2 (17%) - About Damn Time - Placed #2 2 (17%) - First Class - Placed #3 1 (8%) - Glimpse Of Us - Placed #20 Not bad aside from my wild GOU prediction! Congrats to annoymous1 atg Baby Yoda Hot100Fan khan Limited Edition livelightning mms82 (7/12, 58%) for guessing correctly. Each of you earns 17 points. Question 4C: Will Harry Styles' "As It Was" be Billboard's 2022 "Song of the Summer"?This one was from all the way back in May - AIW had just been replaced at #1 by First Class after a solid 7-week run, and most of us thought it would start to drop. We were in fact, very wrong. Congrats to Limited Edition and livelightning (2/10, 20%) for predicting this. Each earn 50 points! In honor of Harry Styles just owning the charts this spring, summer, and probably fall...let's have some fun and take a look at why we thought AIW wouldn't be SOTS
"No - It will either be About Damn Time or a yet-to-be-released song, I think. Maybe even something from Postโs or Calvin Harrisโ upcoming albums if they get good reception." -gikem
"No, I still think About Damn Time is going to be the song of the summer, but keep an eye on Wait For U. That has been holding on very well, and I wouldn't be surprised if this returns to #1 and keeps ADT from running away with the song of the summer title. Harry is about to move on from As It Was, as evidenced by the promotion of Late Night Talking to radio." -phieagles (rip)
"No! In fact, super hot take: I don't think the song of the summer is out yet!" -me
"No, it's gonna be huge throughout the summer but I think it's much more appropriate to call it Song Of The Spring since likely most of its time at #1 will have been in April and May" -kindofbiasedLooking ahead:- AIW looks likely to secure a 14th week at #1 on the 9/24 chart, with no new releases blowing up (43% predicted it wouldn't get more than 13 weeks)
- Beyonce's "Alien Superstar" is at risk of falling off after 5 weeks on the chart (70% predicted a 2nd Bey single would get 10 weeks)
- The 9/17 chart marks the end of the 1st Predict the Peaks round. A few songs are still up in the air:
- Glimpse of Us: #8 Peak, now at #26 (67% guessed #8, 33% guessed higher)
- Vegas: #25 Peak, now at #25 (This one will depend on the 9/17 result...it is likely between phieaglesfan712 who had it at #28 and jasper0102 who had it at #20)
Click here to see full selections & scoresLimited Edition climbs up to #2, and the #1 spot might soon be contested! Also livelightning climbs 3 spots into the top 10. Both of you put your faith in Harry Styles and it paid off! Scoreboard1 (=) joshtheking 541 2 (โฒ2) Limited Edition 496 3 (=) 85la 475 4 (โผ2) enwhy 457 5 (=) phieaglesfan712 389 6 (โฒ1) imhappy259 369 7 (โผ1) Baby Yoda Hot100Fan 361 8 (=) hellojasper0102 312 9 (โฒ3) livelightning 235 10 (โผ1) khan 232 11 (โผ1) kindofbiased 217 12 (โผ1) act ii: OTAVIO 183 13 (=) renfield75 172 14 (=) M5AGTS 165 15 (=) Fears in the Fire 152
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enwhy
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Post by enwhy on Sept 10, 2022 9:58:37 GMT -5
This week's questions (Deadline Thursday, September 15)
Q1: Taylor's Back Taylor Swift recently announced "Midnights", her 10th album which will be released in October. Just since 2020, she's had three #1's, with "cardigan", "willow", and "All Too Well (10 min version)". Her fanbase has shown they're able to boost a song to #1 though sales & streaming. But to find her last multi-week #1, we have to go back half a decade, to 2017's "Look What You Made Me Do" (3 wks at #1). Can she do it again? Will Taylor Swift spend multiple weeks at #1 by the end of the year? (By 12/31 chart)* *Multiple songs each spending a week at #1 would count
Q2: Blackpink Props to BLACKPINK, who just secured their highest solo debut yet with "Pink Venom" (#22). Their new album Born Pink drops on Friday, and it will include the second single "Shut Down", which is said to have one of their highest-budget music videos yet. Will Blackpink debut another single in the Top 40 next week? (10/1 chart)
Q3: Rina Rina Sawayama has never charted on the Hot 100. While in recent years she's built up increasing momentum in the pop sphere, she hasn't quite made it to that level yet in the US. Her debut EP Rina, along with her debut album Sawayama, each saw widespread critical acclaim. Now, she's gearing up to release her second album Hold the Girl. Can she capitalize on the momentum and finally chart a song in the US? Will Rina Sawayama chart on the Hot 100 this year? (By 12/31 chart)
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jasper0102
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I CAN GET BY THE DAYS JUST FINE BUT THE NIGHTS
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Post by jasper0102 on Sept 10, 2022 10:24:47 GMT -5
1. Yes-it depends on whether Taylor releases the lead single before the album, but if she does, and I'm betting on it, she's locked for at least 2 weeks. 2. Yes-Pink Venom did well enough that another single debuting in the Top 40 isn't far-fetched. 3. No-don't think we're gonna see her chart unless her fanbase becomes streaming monsters.
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joshtheking
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Post by joshtheking on Sept 10, 2022 10:50:41 GMT -5
This week's questions (Deadline Thursday, July 7)Since next week looks like another slow chart week, we're going to play a game of Predict the Peaks! Below are 5 songs, and your job is to guess where each one will peak by the end of the summer. If you think a song has already peaked, you can guess its existing peak and get credit. The closest predictor(s) for each song will earn the points. Good luck! 1: About Damn Time (#4 Peak so far - 10 Weeks)Lizzo's new single looked doomed at the start - until a TikTok trend revived it and sent it way up the charts. Now, it looks primed for a big week. Huge radio, steady streaming, and an album on the way - how high can it go? What will About Damn Time's peak be by the end of summer? (By 9/17 chart)2: Glimpse of Us (#8 Peak so far - 2 Weeks)Joji's breakout ballad flew up the streaming charts a couple of weeks ago, and now sits in the Top 10. The question is, does it have any more room to grow? Will it have the longevity to hold on while radio picks it up? What will Glimpse of Us's peak be by the end of summer? (By 9/17 chart)3: Break My Soul (#15 Peak so far - 1 Week)Beyonce's comeback single will likely break into the Top 10 in its first full week. It's an open question what happens next though - the streaming numbers are still dropping, signaling it may be passed its peak. Still, with airplay rising, and the video & album on the way, it may have higher to climb. (Remember, you can edit your guess through Thu 7/7, in case you want to see how it performs on this week's chart). What will Break My Soul's peak be by the end of summer? (By 9/17 chart)4: Get Into It (Yuh) (#31 Peak so far - 29 Weeks)Doja is yet again seeing huge radio success with a Planet Her single. Still, the streaming on the song peaked months ago. How much higher will this one go? What will Get Into It's peak be by the end of summer? (By 9/17 chart)5: Vegas (#56 Peak so far - 3 Weeks)Another Doja song, this one from the Elvis soundtrack. It's been blowing up on streaming these past couple weeks, and is now sitting comfortably in the Spotify top 10. Will this song have any legs? Will radio pick this one up, or is the Doja-mania dying down? What will Vegas's peak be by the end of summer? (By 9/17 chart) Not me just realizing this question was for the 9/17 chart and not overall ๐คก I would not have predicted Vegas so high lmao
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M5AGTS
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Post by M5AGTS on Sept 10, 2022 11:04:34 GMT -5
This week's questions (Deadline Thursday, July 7)Since next week looks like another slow chart week, we're going to play a game of Predict the Peaks! Below are 5 songs, and your job is to guess where each one will peak by the end of the summer. If you think a song has already peaked, you can guess its existing peak and get credit. The closest predictor(s) for each song will earn the points. Good luck! 1: About Damn Time (#4 Peak so far - 10 Weeks)Lizzo's new single looked doomed at the start - until a TikTok trend revived it and sent it way up the charts. Now, it looks primed for a big week. Huge radio, steady streaming, and an album on the way - how high can it go? What will About Damn Time's peak be by the end of summer? (By 9/17 chart)2: Glimpse of Us (#8 Peak so far - 2 Weeks)Joji's breakout ballad flew up the streaming charts a couple of weeks ago, and now sits in the Top 10. The question is, does it have any more room to grow? Will it have the longevity to hold on while radio picks it up? What will Glimpse of Us's peak be by the end of summer? (By 9/17 chart)3: Break My Soul (#15 Peak so far - 1 Week)Beyonce's comeback single will likely break into the Top 10 in its first full week. It's an open question what happens next though - the streaming numbers are still dropping, signaling it may be passed its peak. Still, with airplay rising, and the video & album on the way, it may have higher to climb. (Remember, you can edit your guess through Thu 7/7, in case you want to see how it performs on this week's chart). What will Break My Soul's peak be by the end of summer? (By 9/17 chart)4: Get Into It (Yuh) (#31 Peak so far - 29 Weeks)Doja is yet again seeing huge radio success with a Planet Her single. Still, the streaming on the song peaked months ago. How much higher will this one go? What will Get Into It's peak be by the end of summer? (By 9/17 chart)5: Vegas (#56 Peak so far - 3 Weeks)Another Doja song, this one from the Elvis soundtrack. It's been blowing up on streaming these past couple weeks, and is now sitting comfortably in the Spotify top 10. Will this song have any legs? Will radio pick this one up, or is the Doja-mania dying down? What will Vegas's peak be by the end of summer? (By 9/17 chart) Not me just realizing this question was for the 9/17 chart and not overallย ๐คก I would not have predicted Vegas so high lmao Bro, I totally thight it was for the end of the year too. If I'm remembering right, I underestimated Vegas. Oops.
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joshtheking
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Post by joshtheking on Sept 10, 2022 11:08:56 GMT -5
1. Yes- If my theory of this album being more mainstream than the folk sisters, then Iโd expect radio to be behind her this time 2. Yes- This is the title track so I feel like itโll definitely be hyped by the fanbase 3. No- I would LOVE to see her chart but I highly doubt it lmfao
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Post by Fears in the Fire on Sept 10, 2022 11:13:59 GMT -5
1. No. Iโm really hedging my bets here cause Iโd be very happy if she did, but Iโll say no. 2. Yesโalbum release plus video should drag it over the line at least 3. No
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M5AGTS
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Post by M5AGTS on Sept 10, 2022 11:19:44 GMT -5
1. Yes. This era is giving me 1989 vibes, so yes definitely. Probably at least 5 honestly. Wouldn't be surprised to see 10 with 2 songs combined.
2. Yes. Ofc the Blinks will be all over it.
3. No. This is as likely as Ariana Grande's next lead single not hitting #1.
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renfield75
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Post by renfield75 on Sept 10, 2022 12:21:38 GMT -5
1. No...this one is really up in the air. BMS got two weeks at number one so it's possible, but it's hard to gauge not really knowing anything about the direction she's going this time. Or if there will be another album before the end of the year. 2. Yes 3. No
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kindofbiased
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Post by kindofbiased on Sept 10, 2022 13:45:09 GMT -5
1. Yes - Taylor isn't somebody who has very long runs at #1 usually, but I could see the lead single getting at least 2 weeks at #1 2. Yes - I'm rooting for them to go top 10 tbh, it's been long overdue 3. No - As great as she is, I just don't see it :/ maybe she'll chart with a song from John Wick 4 eventually
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Deleted
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Post by Deleted on Sept 10, 2022 14:55:21 GMT -5
1. Yes 2. Yes 3. Yes
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85la
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Post by 85la on Sept 10, 2022 15:01:00 GMT -5
1. No. This one is tough to say and it's kind of up in the air, and though she's had a commercial/critical 2nd wind with Folklore/Evermore and the re-releases, her singles performance is overall still not what it used to be, so I'm going with no for now. 2. Yes 3. No. It would be cool to see, but unfortunately I'm not seeing it happening yet.
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Post by ๐ฒ๐ฝ'๐ผ.๐ฐ๐ฟ on Sept 11, 2022 3:28:12 GMT -5
1. Yes 2. Yes 3. No
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enwhy
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Post by enwhy on Sept 12, 2022 14:20:05 GMT -5
This week's questions (Deadline Thursday, June 2)Question 1b: Post Malone BonusIt's time for the best kind of predictions...totally baseless guesses! So far, "One Right Now" is Post's top-performing song off the new album, with a #6 peak. Will any album song manage to out-peak this? FULL TRACKLIST: Reputation - Cooped Up (ft. Roddy Rich) - Lemon Tree - Wrapped Around Your Finger - I Like You (ft. Doja Cat) - I Cannot Be (ft. Gunna) - Insane - Love/Hate Letter to Alcohol (ft. Fleet Foxes) - Wasting Angels (ft. The Kid LAROI) - Euthanasia - When I'm Alone - Waiting For A Miracle - One Right Now Which song off the new Post Malone album will have the highest peak by the end of the summer (9/17 chart)?**To clarify, if no song out-performs One Right Now, then ORN would count as the winner, even though it's already peaked. Pretty crazy...I Like You officially rose to #6 on the last chart of the summer, tying ORN's peak. All the way back in spring, 9 of us selected ORN and 4 selected ILY. I'll probably give everyone 10 points because I can't think of a better way to score it.
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Post by Baby Yoda Hot100Fan on Sept 12, 2022 15:33:35 GMT -5
1. Yes 2. Yes 3. No
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Post by Limited Edition on Sept 13, 2022 10:52:34 GMT -5
Q1: Yes
Q2: Yes
Q3: No
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enwhy
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Post by enwhy on Sept 15, 2022 8:47:11 GMT -5
1. No - At most she'll get a week at #1 with the lead single. The only way 2+ weeks could happen imo is if she promotes a single now and another in a month when the album drops.
2. No - I'm surprised people are so confident on this one. I think Pink Venom had more hype behind it. They'll chart but I don't know about Top 40.
3. No - I really want to say yes, but the hype isn't really there right now. She's going for a more commercial sound but fans aren't really vibing with it as much as past stuff. Also her label is a small indie label so they can't push her on radio really. I will say, if a song of hers charts, I feel like it would start with TikTok.
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enwhy
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Post by enwhy on Sept 18, 2022 9:56:20 GMT -5
This week's questions (Deadline Thursday, September 22)
Q1: 5SOS Australian group 5 Seconds of Summer is releasing their fifth studio album, 5SOS5, next week. The group has hit a bit of a slump since hitting the Top 10 for the first time in 2018 with "Yungblood." The lead single "Complete Mess" charted earlier this year at #85, but none of the four singles released since have made it to the Hot 100. And for the first time in the band's career, they're struggling on the charts even in their home country of Australia. Will they be able to chart again, or are their 5 seconds of fame running out? Will 5SOS chart any song on the Hot 100 by the end of the year? (By 12/31 chart)
Q2: Taylor 1st Week Sales It's been interesting watching fanbases reckon with Billboard's new Sales rules this year. For those unfamiliar, the new rule is 1 purchase per person (validated via credit card), per version, per website, per week. Nicki Minaj has had the most success to date, selling 89k first week with "Super Freaky Girl" last month. Taylor's fanbase however, has a history of racking up impressive sales figures on her singles. Most recently: All Too Well (58k), Willow (59k), Cardigan (71k), YNTCD (79k), ME (193k). How will share with the lead song off her new project? Will Taylor's lead single sell more than Super Freaky Girl (89k) in its first week?* *If no lead single, we'll go off of the top-charting song from her album release week
Q3: Teenage Popstars The last few years have felt like a resurgence in young talent on the charts. But 2022 has been much slower - and lack of younger singers on the charts may be one reason. The only teenagers to chart in the top 10 this year have been Gayle with "abcdefu" and The Kid LAROI with "STAY". In the age of TikTok-fueled hits, it's certainly surprising that older, more-established artists are seeing the most success. Will the trend continue? Or will a young star have a breakout song in Q4? Will a teenager (19 or younger) chart in the Top 10 on the Hot 100 by the end of the year? (By 12/31 chart)
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jasper0102
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I CAN GET BY THE DAYS JUST FINE BUT THE NIGHTS
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Post by jasper0102 on Sept 18, 2022 10:03:01 GMT -5
1. No 2. No-this is gonna be a close one though 3. No
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joshtheking
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Post by joshtheking on Sept 18, 2022 10:44:27 GMT -5
1. No- Not gonna make the same mistake I did with Tate McRae & JID lol 2. No- I see her selling over 50K but not over 80K 3. Yes- yeah sure lol
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Deleted
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Post by Deleted on Sept 18, 2022 12:27:09 GMT -5
1. No 2. Yes 3. Yes
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M5AGTS
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Post by M5AGTS on Sept 18, 2022 12:29:52 GMT -5
1. No 2. No (This one will be close tho.) 3. Yes. Olivia will probably release her lead before the end of the year and it'll take over everything cause she's literally the biggest name in music rn.
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mms82
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...
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Post by mms82 on Sept 18, 2022 16:09:38 GMT -5
1 yes 2 no (I donโt think sheโll release a stand-alone single before the album, if she does though I wouldnโt be surprised if it cracks 100k) 3 yes
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