enwhy
Gold Member
Joined: January 2021
Posts: 641
Pronouns: he/him
|
Post by enwhy on Jul 30, 2022 11:25:21 GMT -5
This week's questions (Deadline Thursday, August 4)
Q1: Funk Wav Bounces Vol. 2 Calvin Harris has seen diminishing success in the US the past few years. Since his 2016 smash "This Is What You Came For" (#3) with Rihanna, he hasn't touched the top 10. Still, he's put out some memorable songs, including Slide (#25), Feels (#20), and One Kiss (#26). More recently, he's struck out with the singles from his new project, with only Potion (#71) scratching the Hot 100. His full album, Funk Wav Bounces Vol. 2, is out next week - will he see any major hits come out of it? Will Calvin Harris chart any songs in the Top 40 next week? (8/20 chart)
Q2: Funk Wav Bonus With the full tracklist & featured artists released, let's take a guess: which song will ultimately peak the highest? 1. "Intro" Adam Wiles
2. "New Money" (with 21 Savage) 3. "Potion" (with Dua Lipa and Young Thug) - #71 Peak so far 4. "Woman of the Year" (featuring Stefflon Don, Chlöe and Coi Leray) 5. "Obsessed" (featuring Charlie Puth and Shenseea) 6. "New to You" (with Normani, Tinashe and Offset) 7. "Ready or Not" (featuring Busta Rhymes) 8. "Stay with Me" (with Justin Timberlake, Halsey and Pharrell Williams) 9. "Stay with Me (Part 2)" (with Justin Timberlake, Halsey and Pharrell Williams) 10. "Somebody Else" (featuring Jorja Smith and Lil Durk) 11. "Nothing More to Say" (featuring 6lack and Donae'o) 12. "Live My Best Life" (featuring Snoop Dogg and Latto) 13. "Lean on Me" (featuring Swae Lee) 14. "Day One" (featuring Pharrell Williams and Pusha T) Which song off Funk Wav Vol 2 will ultimately peak the highest this year? (By 12/31 chart)*
Q3: Bad Habit Steve Lacy's "Bad Habit" has taken off recently, leading Spotify US for a couple of weeks! It's a really interesting and unique song that I highly recommend listening to if you haven't yet. Anyway, pop radio has been traditionally reluctant to add songs that sound so different. But lately, as seen by songs like We Don't Talk About Bruno and Running Up That Hill, there's been a shift to letting streaming lead the way. Will that hold true here? Can the streaming hold on long enough to reach the top of the chart? Will Steve Lacy's Bad Habit reach the top 3 on the Hot 100 by the end of this year? (By 12/31 chart)
|
|
jasper0102
2x Platinum Member
I CAN GET BY THE DAYS JUST FINE BUT THE NIGHTS
Joined: May 2022
Posts: 2,706
Pronouns: he/him
|
Post by jasper0102 on Jul 30, 2022 11:51:41 GMT -5
1 No 2 Potion 3 Yes
|
|
khan
Platinum Member
Joined: July 2020
Posts: 1,025
|
Post by khan on Jul 30, 2022 11:51:41 GMT -5
1. No - Potion really shoulda charted higher considering who's involved in it, but I guess people aren't thinking about a new Calvin Harris project right now. Potion didn't even make top half, which is just insane to me. Even globally, it's flopping. Knowing how US radio is, I wouldn't be surprised if the album eventually gets a top forty hit somewhere down the line, but next week? No way.
2. "New Money" - Well, 21 Savage already got a #1 hit this year, a song that he almost certainly boosted to the top spot. Clearly he's got hype, so why not?
3. Yes - Oh hell yeah, this song is primed to be big. That Spotify stability has proven itself this time, and it's already being picked up on a bunch of radio formats. Honestly, I disagree with the idea that it sounds so different from the songs usually played on radio. This style of bedroom pop is very accessible, and it's been getting more popular in general recently.
|
|
|
Post by phieaglesfan712 on Jul 30, 2022 12:37:25 GMT -5
1. No, even his last real hit, One Kiss, was 4 years ago.
2. Potion. I would have said Stay With Me, but without knowing if the two parts are combined (after what we saw with Donda), I can’t take that risk.
3. Yes, Bad Habit has looks like it’s going to take off on radio and be #1 on the Hot 100 by the end of September.
|
|
|
Post by big2000 on Jul 30, 2022 13:06:12 GMT -5
1. No, Calvin Harris just isn’t as big as he used to be, and even then he could only pull off a huge smash single if he collaborated with a big artist like Rihanna (examples being We Found Love and This is What You Came For). 2. Potion. Even though it isn’t shaping up to be a big hit, none of the other songs on the album seem worthy of a big finish. 3. Yes, the song is skyrocketing on streaming, and with radio on board, there will be a lot more traction towards this song.
|
|
M5AGTS
2x Platinum Member
Joined: July 2022
Posts: 2,868
|
Post by M5AGTS on Jul 30, 2022 15:36:30 GMT -5
1. No 2. Potion 3. Yes
|
|
renfield75
Platinum Member
Joined: February 2009
Posts: 1,626
|
Post by renfield75 on Jul 31, 2022 20:33:02 GMT -5
1. No 2. Potion 3. Yes, this looks like it's going to be around for awhile
|
|
85la
3x Platinum Member
Joined: July 2007
Posts: 3,695
|
Post by 85la on Aug 1, 2022 19:02:35 GMT -5
1. No 2. Potion 3. Yes
|
|
jayhawk1117
2x Platinum Member
Joined: July 2013
Posts: 2,747
|
Post by jayhawk1117 on Aug 1, 2022 19:44:16 GMT -5
1. Not a chance
2. Potion (the rest won’t debut higher than it’s peak)
3. Yeah. I’d be shocked if it didn’t crack the top 3 by September tbh
|
|
|
Post by Fears in the Fire on Aug 1, 2022 20:30:31 GMT -5
1. No 2. Potion 3. Yes
|
|
joshtheking
Platinum Member
Joined: April 2020
Posts: 1,391
|
Post by joshtheking on Aug 3, 2022 5:21:40 GMT -5
1. No- I'll be surprised if he charts at all lol 2. Potion 3. Yes- Seems like it's built to be a lasting hit
|
|
Deleted
Joined: January 1970
Posts: 0
|
Post by Deleted on Aug 3, 2022 8:07:52 GMT -5
1. No 2. New to You 3. Yes
|
|
enwhy
Gold Member
Joined: January 2021
Posts: 641
Pronouns: he/him
|
Post by enwhy on Aug 3, 2022 22:07:19 GMT -5
1. No - He put out snippets from every song, and nothing stands out much. Very much feels like he killed the momentum he had.
2. Potion
3. Yes - Earlier this week I was skeptical that streaming and radio would be remotely aligned (thought maybe a Glimpse Of Us like run), but now it's clear this thing is probably headed for #1. Streaming is still up 5-10% over last week, and it's got one of the best bullets on pop radio right now.
|
|
|
Post by Baby Yoda Hot100Fan on Aug 3, 2022 22:40:16 GMT -5
1. No 2. Potion 3. Yes
|
|
|
Post by Limited Edition on Aug 4, 2022 12:44:20 GMT -5
Q1: No Q2: Potion Q3: Yes
|
|
enwhy
Gold Member
Joined: January 2021
Posts: 641
Pronouns: he/him
|
Post by enwhy on Aug 7, 2022 9:45:13 GMT -5
This week's questions (Deadline Thursday, August 11)
Q1: Nicki's New Single Nicki Minaj has a new single dropping next week, called "Super Freaky Girl." She's had some success recently with collabs: "Bussin" with Lil Baby (#20) - "Do We Have a Problem?" with Lil Baby (#2) - "Trollz" with 6ix9ine (#1) But, it's been a few years since her last solo single (Megatron, #20). Since then, Sales rules have gotten much stricter, with Billboard tightening up the rules on Sales per person, as well as reducing the impact of each individual sale. On the other hand, this is still a historically weak top 10 - can she still pull off a high debut with this single? Will Nicki Minaj debut in the Top 10 next week? (8/27 chart)
Q2: Rod Wave Album Rapper Rod Wave has a new album set to be released next week as well. Titled "Beautiful Mind," it was originally set to be released in June before an arrest and other production delays caused it to be pushed back at the last minute. He's built up some momentum though, with a string of well-performing singles over the past year: Cold December (#38) - "By Your Side" (#58) - "Richer (ft. Polo G) (#22) - "Tombstone" (#11) Will Rod Wave debut a song in the Top 40 next week? (8/27 chart)
Q3: Beyonce Second Single "Break My Soul" is likely to hit #1 this week, and should hang around in the top 10 for awhile longer. While Beyonce in the past has shown she's not too concerned about chart success, her team has been pulling out all the stops recently - remixes, Cliquebait videos, and sales campaigns. But does her album have any other hits on it? Will any other songs (not Break My Soul) from Beyonce's "Renaissance" spend 10+ weeks on the chart this year? (By 12/31 chart)
|
|
joshtheking
Platinum Member
Joined: April 2020
Posts: 1,391
|
Post by joshtheking on Aug 7, 2022 11:02:52 GMT -5
1. No- I think it will be an underperformance 2. No- I think his hype has kind of died down since 2020 sadly :/ 3. No- I'm being very negative with these answers lol... I think the streaming peaks/next single push will not align
|
|
jasper0102
2x Platinum Member
I CAN GET BY THE DAYS JUST FINE BUT THE NIGHTS
Joined: May 2022
Posts: 2,706
Pronouns: he/him
|
Post by jasper0102 on Aug 7, 2022 11:25:10 GMT -5
1. No - Progress might be enough of an indication that Billboard is trying to weaken sales whatever ways they could, and given how most Nicki singles the past year or so have performed, that speaks for itself. 2. No - Even if he has hype, i don't think it'll be enough for him to get a song in the top 40 next week, even if i wouldn't be shocked if subsequent singles break the top 40. 3. Idk - I don't think I know enough about how Beyonce album cycles go for me to have a definitive answer on this.
|
|
mms82
Platinum Member
...
Joined: January 2019
Posts: 1,238
|
Post by mms82 on Aug 7, 2022 12:20:08 GMT -5
1- No - honestly, doubt she gets a solo top 10 debut again. Not doubting her ability to make a hit song catch on again, but I doubt it’ll debut with weak sales. 2- yes - I bet one will sneak in. 3- yes (albeit possibly non-consecutively). I think cuff it / alien superstar will get 3-4 weeks just from streams, they fall off, and she services it to radio where it gets another 7-10 weeks from top 20 rhythmic/pop plays
|
|
|
Post by phieaglesfan712 on Aug 7, 2022 13:29:19 GMT -5
1. No 2. No 3. Yes
|
|
khan
Platinum Member
Joined: July 2020
Posts: 1,025
|
Post by khan on Aug 7, 2022 15:39:56 GMT -5
1. No - Sales seem to have been utterly gutted by Billboard recently. Makes sense after all the criticisms leveled at them over the years, but it's bad news for artists like Nicki. I think she's still got a hit or two in her yet, but it won't come in the first week.
2. No - Unfortunately, I doubt Rod Wave has that kind of hype anymore. That said, he does have some legitimate pull, so I do expect multiple debuts from him. Just not in the top forty.
3. Yes - I have no idea which song it'll be, but I'm sure a second single will get the radio support to chart for at least ten weeks. That isn't so hard for an artist like Beyoncé. If this question was about a year-end hit, I'd be a lot more pessimistic.
|
|
85la
3x Platinum Member
Joined: July 2007
Posts: 3,695
|
Post by 85la on Aug 9, 2022 18:49:49 GMT -5
1. No 2. Yes 3. Yes
|
|
M5AGTS
2x Platinum Member
Joined: July 2022
Posts: 2,868
|
Post by M5AGTS on Aug 9, 2022 21:07:21 GMT -5
1. No 2. Yes 3. Yes
|
|
enwhy
Gold Member
Joined: January 2021
Posts: 641
Pronouns: he/him
|
Post by enwhy on Aug 11, 2022 7:59:32 GMT -5
1. No - She would need another big Collab for this imo. 2. Yes - Don't know a ton about Rod Wave but idk, charts are pretty weak still, and he has a solid fanbase to stream him 3. No - I don't think she does any big singles this era outside of Break My Soul.
|
|
Deleted
Joined: January 1970
Posts: 0
|
Post by Deleted on Aug 11, 2022 8:02:09 GMT -5
1. No 2. Yes 3. Yes
|
|
|
Post by Baby Yoda Hot100Fan on Aug 11, 2022 15:24:46 GMT -5
1. No 2. Yes 3. No
|
|
kcdawg13
7x Platinum Member
You Are Now Listening to 103.5 Dawn FM
|
Post by kcdawg13 on Aug 11, 2022 17:15:31 GMT -5
1. Yes- I think the Barbs are dedicated enough to get her a Top 10 debut, but a low T10 debut (like 8-10). 2. Yes 3. Yes
|
|
enwhy
Gold Member
Joined: January 2021
Posts: 641
Pronouns: he/him
|
Post by enwhy on Aug 14, 2022 14:46:51 GMT -5
Here's this week's score update! One of the biggest chart stories in recent weeks was Beyonce's return to #1. This resolved a couple of questions: Question 10C: What will Break My Soul's peak be by the end of summer? (By 9/17 chart) After 15 weeks of predicting, we have our first ever solo winner!! Last month, only 1 predictor guessed BMS would eventually go #1...Congrats to jasper0102 (11%, 1 of 9) for correctly predicting this, and earning the jackpot total of 90 points! Question 12A: Will Beyonce get a #1 hit this year? (By 12/31 chart) Another underdog win! atg enwhy jasper0102 Groovy (24%, 4 of 17) each went against the majority on this one, and will earn 43 points apiece! Question 13A: Will Beyonce have 3+ top 20 songs during her album week? (8/13 chart) This one was closer than I think many were expecting! Cuff It (#13) and Alien Superstar (#19) joined Break My Soul (#1) on Renaissance's debut week. baby big2000 jasper0102 @imhappy259 Limited Edition M5 phi (70%, 7 of 10) guessed correctly, and each earn 14 points. And one other question: Question 11C: Will Metallica's "Master of Puppets" spend 5+ weeks on the chart this year? (By 12/31 chart) With the caveat that this could change by the end of the year, Master of Puppets is off the charts after 3 weeks, and will almost definitely not return. I will keep an eye on it, in case it makes another comeback. Baby Yoda Hot100Fan enwhy jasper0102 joshtheking Limited Edition renfield75 85la otaviohmg (50%, 8 of 16) correctly forecasted that MoP would not chart for 5+ weeks, each earning 20 points. Looking ahead:- "As It Was" continues to dominate the charts this summer. (80% said it would NOT be song of the summer; 25% said there would be 5+ weeks of rap #1's this summer)
- "Break My Soul" is the 4th song to go #1 this summer. Could we see more turnover this month? (25% said there would be 5+ #1 songs this summer)
- Post and Doja's "I Like You" is still gaining in the top 10. (31% predicted ILY would reach the Top 5)
- "Bad Habit" has continued climbing the top 10 (100% predicted it would go Top 3)
Click here to see full selections & scoresCongrats to jasper0102 for moving up 15 spots this week!! A few big bets on Beyonce paid off nicely. Congrats also to Baby Yoda Hot100Fan for moving into the top 5. Scoreboard1 (=) joshtheking 418 2 (=) Limited Edition 356 3 (▲1) enwhy 331 4 (▼1) phieaglesfan712 326 5 (▲2) Baby Yoda Hot100Fan 245 6 (▲15) hellojasper0102 242 7 (▼1) 85la 234 8 (▼1) imhappy259 225 9 (▼4) kindofbiased 197 10 (▼1) act ii: OTAVIO 183 11 (▼1) livelightning 155 12 (▼1) khan 142 13 (▼1) annoymous1 118 14 (▲3) renfield75 112 15 (▼2) Gen V.B. 96
|
|
enwhy
Gold Member
Joined: January 2021
Posts: 641
Pronouns: he/him
|
Post by enwhy on Aug 14, 2022 14:48:02 GMT -5
This week's questions (Deadline Thursday, August 18)
Q1: Demi Lovato Demi Lovato's new album "Holy Fvck" drops this Friday. They have not had much luck with their singles lately. Last year's "Dancing with the Devil" (#56) and "Met Him Last Night" (#61) charted in the lower rungs of the Hot 100, but this year's "Skin of my Teeth" and "Substance" both failed to chart. Will they see any chart success with the new album? Will Demi Lovato debut any songs on the Hot 100 next week? (9/3 chart)
Q2: Panic! At The Disco PatD also has an album dropping Friday, called "Viva Las Vengeance". Brandon Urie hasn't released a whole lot since his mini-resurgence in 2018-19 ("Say Amen" - #60, "High Hopes" - #4, "Hey Look Ma" - #16). Will he be able to continue his hot streak in 2022? Is pop radio still willing to give him some airplay? Will Panic At The Disco be credited on a Top 40 song on the Hot 100 this year? (By 12/31 chart)
Q3: Nicki Second Week Nicki's "Super Freaky Girl" is having a hell of a first week so far - on track for a top 5 (or even #1) debut. But the question that will be sure to spark many stupid comments on stan twitter: how big will her second week drop be? If she debuts #1 and then drops out of the top 20, she would be adding another song to a pretty exclusive list. Biggest Drops from #1: 1–38 "Willow" - Taylor Swift 1–34 "Trollz" - 6ix9ine and Nicki Minaj 1–28 "Life Goes On" - BTS 1–25 "Franchise" - Travis Scott ft. Young Thug and M.I.A 1–17 "Butter" - BTS 1–17 "Heartless" - The Weeknd Will "Super Freaky Girl" chart at #20 or better in its second week? (9/3 chart)
|
|
M5AGTS
2x Platinum Member
Joined: July 2022
Posts: 2,868
|
Post by M5AGTS on Aug 14, 2022 14:59:40 GMT -5
1. No. (Which is unfortunate, cuz I love Skin Of My Teeth, it's predicted to hit my personal chart soon, and they might have an album bomb there.) 2. No. I think Patd is over. 3. Yes. I think it will be at around 17, then in the 30s, and spend around 12 weeks on the hot 100 total.
|
|