Billboard Hot 100: 05/21/2022

[dremolus - solarpunk]

Bad Bunny and Jack Harlow on AM after 12 hours

Un Verano Tin Si
6(DEBUT) Moscow Mule
10(DEBUT) Después de la Playa
12(DEBUT) Me Porto Bonito
14(DEBUT) Un Ratito
15(DEBUT) Tití Me Preguntó
18(DEBUT) Tarot
24(DEBUT) Yo No Soy Celoso
25(DEBUT) Party
27(DEBUT) La Corriente
28(DEBUT) Neverita
34(DEBUT) Efecto
38(DEBUT) Aguacero
40(DEBUT) Un Verano Sin Ti
41(DEBUT) Dos Mil 16
42(DEBUT) Ojitos Lindos
44(DEBUT) Enséñame a Bailar
48(DEBUT) Me Fui de Vacaciones
49(DEBUT) Otro Atardecer
51(DEBUT) Un Coco
52(DEBUT) El Apagón
57(DEBUT) Andrea
58(DEBUT) Agosto
70(DEBUT) Callaita

Come Home, the Kids Miss You
3(+3) First Class
35(DEBUT) Churchill Downs
39(DEBUT) Dua Lipa
43(DEBUT) Talk of the Down
47(DEBUT) Young Harleezy
50(DEBUT) I'd Do Anything To Make You Smile
64(+23) Nail Tech
68(DEBUT) Side Piece
72(DEBUT) Movie Star
79(DEBUT) Poison
87(DEBUT) Parent Trap
92(DEBUT) I Got a Shot
94(DEBUT) Lil Secret
96(DEBUT) Like a Blade of Grass

To those who said Jack would be bigger this week, on YouTube Jack's biggest deepcut - Churchill Downs with Drake - has 270K. Bad Bunny's biggest deepcut - Me Porto Benito - has 3M. We tried to warn y'all.

[gikem]

Here we go…

[Enigma.]

A serve

[phieaglesfan712]

May 6, 2022 11:06:01 GMT -5 gikem said:

Here we go…

That’s going to be one exciting race for the #1 between Yet to Come and About Damn Time on the 6/25 chart.

[goldrush]

May 6, 2022 11:05:33 GMT -5 dremolus - solarpunk said:

Bad Bunny and Jack Harlow on AM after 12 hours

Un Verano Tin Si
6(DEBUT) Moscow Mule
10(DEBUT) Después de la Playa
12(DEBUT) Me Porto Bonito
14(DEBUT) Un Ratito
15(DEBUT) Tití Me Preguntó
18(DEBUT) Tarot
24(DEBUT) Yo No Soy Celoso
25(DEBUT) Party
27(DEBUT) La Corriente
28(DEBUT) Neverita
34(DEBUT) Efecto
38(DEBUT) Aguacero
40(DEBUT) Un Verano Sin Ti
41(DEBUT) Dos Mil 16
42(DEBUT) Ojitos Lindos
44(DEBUT) Enséñame a Bailar
48(DEBUT) Me Fui de Vacaciones
49(DEBUT) Otro Atardecer
51(DEBUT) Un Coco
52(DEBUT) El Apagón
57(DEBUT) Andrea
58(DEBUT) Agosto
70(DEBUT) Callaita
103(DEBUT) <3

Come Home, the Kids Miss You
3(+3) First Class
35(DEBUT) Churchill Downs
39(DEBUT) Dua Lipa
43(DEBUT) Talk of the Down
47(DEBUT) Young Harleezy
50(DEBUT) I'd Do Anything To Make You Smile
64(+23) Nail Tech
68(DEBUT) Side Piece
72(DEBUT) Movie Star
79(DEBUT) Poison
87(DEBUT) Parent Trap
92(DEBUT) I Got a Shot
94(DEBUT) Lil Secret
96(DEBUT) Like a Blade of Grass

To those who said Jack would be bigger this week, on YouTube Jack's biggest deepcut - Churchill Downs with Drake - has 270K. Bad Bunny's biggest deepcut - Me Porto Benito - has 3M. We tried to warn y'all.

That's a random 2020 album track from YHLQMDLG not a debut. But also interesting that he decided to include Callaita (2019) on this album and not on either of his 2020 releases. 

[shaz196]

If Bad Bunny is doing this to Harlow on AM imagine the Spotify showing

[thegreatdivine]

Bad Bunny's album is getting the CLB treatment from Spotify. RIP to Jack Harlow's album on Spotify.

[kindofbiased]

I didn't think Jack Harlow was gonna beat Bad Bunny this week but at the moment it doesn't even look close oh wow

[Ling-Ling]

I know Jack has a big song right now, but why do people think he's going to pull superstar numbers? What about his career gave that impression? Not saying he won't at some point, but he's still very much a star on the rise.

[thegreatdivine]

May 6, 2022 12:38:02 GMT -5 kindofbiased said:

I didn't think Jack Harlow was gonna beat Bad Bunny this week but at the moment it doesn't even look close oh wow

If you think it's bad now, wait till Spotify numbers come out tomorrow.

[Ｓｏｕｎｄｃｌ🕤ｃｋ]

I mean, we don't know yet, Jack is really unpredictable. First Class literally debuted with almost 6M streams (24,5M first week), and I'm not sure Bad Bunny had 2M song on Spotify? Maybe I'm wrong, but even with that AD-FREE thing, I think Jack will have better Spotify numbers.

[dremolus - solarpunk]

May 6, 2022 13:16:33 GMT -5 Ｓｏｕｎｄｃｌ🕤ｃｋ said:

I mean, we don't know yet, Jack is really unpredictable. First Class literally debuted with almost 6M streams (24,5M first week), and I'm not sure Bad Bunny had 2M song on Spotify? Maybe I'm wrong, but even with that AD-FREE thing, I think Jack will have better Spotify numbers.

Let's put aside any discussions of who's more popular and say they're about equal in terms of stars, one album has 23 songs and the other has 15 songs. Which do you think will have more streams on average?

Also Yonaguni debuted with 1.7M and DAKITI was NUMBER ONE ON SPOTIFY IN THE US for a couple of days in 2020. I still don't understand why people underestimate Bad Bunny's popularity in America.

[Music Fan]

By # of songs alone, I think Bad Bunny will clearly be #1. But I do think Bad Bunny may be a bit more front-loaded than Jack. In the sense that I think his songs will start falling quicker and Jack will have a slightly slower drop. Still, do not think that makes a difference in Bad Bunny going #1.

[iHype.]

Kendrick vs. Post on the next Hot 100. Start to an insane month hopefully.

[degen]

The Doja Cat song sounds like a smash! But the problem is radio is backed up right now with her singles. You have “Woman” just now peaking and “Get Into It” in mid-range and far from peaking yet. Then you also have “Freaky Deaky” near its peak too. So I’m not sure sending this to radio right away is the right choice. They should probably wait til June or after the movie is released.

[Ｓｏｕｎｄｃｌ🕤ｃｋ]

May 6, 2022 13:26:36 GMT -5 dremolus - solarpunk said:

May 6, 2022 13:16:33 GMT -5 Ｓｏｕｎｄｃｌ🕤ｃｋ said:

I mean, we don't know yet, Jack is really unpredictable. First Class literally debuted with almost 6M streams (24,5M first week), and I'm not sure Bad Bunny had 2M song on Spotify? Maybe I'm wrong, but even with that AD-FREE thing, I think Jack will have better Spotify numbers.

Let's put aside any discussions of who's more popular and say they're about equal in terms of stars, one album has 23 songs and the other has 15 songs. Which do you think will have more streams on average?

Also Yonaguni debuted with 1.7M and DAKITI was NUMBER ONE ON SPOTIFY IN THE US for a couple of days in 2020. I still don't understand why people underestimate Bad Bunny's popularity in America.

I definitely think Bad Bunny is huge, my point is that Jack will probably have more spots in the top 10/20 on Spotify. Overall numbers? Most likely Bad Bunny, but only because he has more songs. A month ago, I'd easily say Bad Bunny will have a much bigger album bomb on Spotify, but after First Class, not sure anymore.

Can't wait to see the numbers tomorrow.

[phieaglesfan712]

My guess is that Jack Harlow will have the 2 biggest songs (First Class and Churchill Downs), but Bad Bunny will dominate the rest and have the bigger album.

[thegreatdivine]

May 6, 2022 13:37:17 GMT -5 iHype. said:

Kendrick vs. Post on the next Hot 100. Start to an insane month hopefully.

I don't think this is a competition. Kendrick is debuting at #1, no doubt about that.

[ephelia]

As It Was and Boyfriend debut high on Pop callouts, Sweetest Pie and Complete Mess debut low.

[atg]

[ontopofthis]

Y'all really set that man up. It has never been a competition between the two because it was always going to be a runaway victory. One Tik Tok song does not make you an albums artist. He is still a rising artist, so those 200,000 projections always have been unreasonable. He is probably going to open to 120,000, but now people are going to post about it flopping because of egregious expectations. Those Hits projections vastly underestimate Kendrick Lamar + Bad Bunny, and they vastly overestimate Jack Harlow and especially Post Malone. Harry Styles' seems about right, though 

[thegreatdivine]

[fridayteenage]

looks like a more solid week for sales than usual for 2022, fwiw.

[dremolus - solarpunk]

May 6, 2022 13:37:17 GMT -5 iHype. said:

Kendrick vs. Post on the next Hot 100. Start to an insane month hopefully.

Even if Post was still as popular as he was 2 years ago, nothing is stopping Kendrick

[goldrush]

May 6, 2022 14:00:40 GMT -5 Ｓｏｕｎｄｃｌ🕤ｃｋ said:

May 6, 2022 13:26:36 GMT -5 dremolus - solarpunk said:

Let's put aside any discussions of who's more popular and say they're about equal in terms of stars, one album has 23 songs and the other has 15 songs. Which do you think will have more streams on average?

Also Yonaguni debuted with 1.7M and DAKITI was NUMBER ONE ON SPOTIFY IN THE US for a couple of days in 2020. I still don't understand why people underestimate Bad Bunny's popularity in America.

I definitely think Bad Bunny is huge, my point is that Jack will probably have more spots in the top 10/20 on Spotify. Overall numbers? Most likely Bad Bunny, but only because he has more songs. A month ago, I'd easily say Bad Bunny will have a much bigger album bomb on Spotify, but after First Class, not sure anymore.

Can't wait to see the numbers tomorrow.

Bad Bunny has historically performed better (or at least equivalent) on Spotify than AM with his album releases. Whereas, Jack Harlow performed better first week with First Class on AM. Bad Bunny is absolutely obliterating Jack on AM, so I think it's very safe to say that he will outperform Jack on Spotify too... but we shall see.

I don't why so many are rushing to defend Jack. Bad Bunny is a very strong albums artist, so it never seemed like a competition to me.

[lazer]

Honestly, idc if we get a Bad Bunny or Jack Harlow album bomb, all I want is for the charts to escape the emptiness that is January-March.

[fridayteenage]

hmm, ww youtube has an album bomb by bad bunny, almost the whole top 12.

not too shocking given his audience, but you don't see that a lot.

[jamatthews83]

Bad Bunny takes #1 on Spotify (and #3, #4, #5, #9, #10).

[gs]

welp Bad Bunny is gonna do over 275-300m+ audio / 200-225k+ sea, depending on AM ratio and how it holds up.

Jack ~120m / <100k sea?

[After Minutes]

I definitely overestimated Jack's debut and I'll gladly take the L. I'm very positively surprised by Bad Bunny's numbers and I hope they'll be stable throughout the week. I'll be keeping my fingers crossed for Moscow Mule to be the first Spanish song to debut at #1