Taylor Swift - Midnights: First Week US Units?

[kimberly]

I'm back with another prediction & poll!

We're tackling Midnights this time. Yes, we haven't heard anything yet — that's the point! It's a guessing game.

I think best point of reference we have might be folklore's numbers, since that's the last brand new album she released while playing the chart game completely. (evermore was only available as a digital download first week.) I think the pre-orders will help her sell comparable, if not more, pure copies, but the shorter tracklist might take away from the streaming total for the album. both with Red and folklore, it looks like her ceiling might be around 230k for sea/tea units. 

My personal prediction for this album currently stands at 675k-725k pure sales and 225k-275k sea/tea units, meaning 900k-1m SPS. What do you think?

For those that need a refresher, her album releases this decade went like this:

Red (Taylor's Version)
605,000 SPS units [369,000 pure sales + 236,000 sea/tea]

Fearless (Taylor's Version)
291,000 SPS units [179,000 pure sales + 112,000 sea/tea]

evermore
329,000 SPS units [154,000 pure sales + 175,000 sea/tea]

folklore
846,000 SPS units [615,000 pure sales + 231,000 sea/tea]

[twigs]

Hoping it may be able to reach 1 million units but not sure

At least 800k I think

[Ｓｏｕｎｄｃｌ🕤ｃｋ]

700-800k

[Envoirment]

Didn't Folklore get a sales boost from bundles or something which billboard now no longer count? The merchandising & ticket bundle stuff?

I'm thinking it will do ~500k pure and ~200k sea/tea for a total of ~700k. Although could see it doing a bit higher. Would be great if it could do 1 million+. Taylor is the only person who could possibly do it once more I feel.

[Taylor.]

She's definitely gunning for a 1 million opening between the variants and putting out signed CDs/vinyls now and not later.

Will she get there? Not sure, it's possible but I'd be thrilled with 800k-900k.

[kimberly]

Oct 6, 2022 15:26:12 GMT -5 Envoirment said:

Didn't Folklore get a sales boost from bundles or something which billboard now no longer count? The merchandising & ticket bundle stuff?

folklore benefited mainly from the fact that its vinyl/CD orders counted for the first week instead of the week they shipped, like they do now (which hurt evermore and Fearless TV's first week numbers). since Midnights will be available on all formats first week, that shouldn't make much of a difference. 

[M5AGTS]

I said between 900k and 1m

[ificanthaveyou]

I’m going for 1 million. Folklore didn’t have the benefit of pre-orders and fans weren’t able to get hyped up for it. The combo of signed copied, vinyls, and album pre-saves I think she’ll do it just barely. If it’s within sight I imagine the label will push that much harder on release week.

Oh and Folklore didn’t get a bonus track version until a few weeks later. This time it’s being released at the same time so fans who pre-ordered may opt to buy both.

[Ling-Ling]

I think between 600,000-700,000 is the high end. Maybe less?

[dremolus - solarpunk]

gonna be safe and say 600-700K

[kimberly]

locked this poll! see you in a week

[dremolus - solarpunk]

It seems like it blew everyone's expectations out of the water

[kimberly]

with Billboard confirming 1.2 million SPS, we can safely say the respondents of this poll have been BAMBOOZLED except for the single person who voted for "over 1.2 million."

DAMN TAYLOR. this is so impressive.

[Choco]

Congrats to the single person that voted 1.2milli+

[M5AGTS]

Who voted 1.2m+? Also congrats to whoever that person is.