2022 Observations/2023 Predictions

[onebuffalo]

It's that time of the year again. Time to look back and forward simultaneously (no less). The questions I'm asking you are:

1. What have you noticed over the past twelve months?

2. What do you see happening over the next twelve months?

[🌺CountryLineDancer]

I'm gonna focus on Canadian country music scene, as I would assume other posters have more interesting predictions for the US artists. 

2023 Prediction

- Aaron Goodvin: After a slow climb, You Ain't become top 15 hit. He will release a lead single from the next era in the summer, and peaks around the end of the year. You Ain't is also sent to the US small market, and scrape the Music Row chart.
- Aaron Pritchett: Another release of a standalone single and barely get any adds.
- Alee: 24 fails to chart.
- Andrew Hyatt: Four Good Years become top 30 hit, and the new follow-up would be a duet with Danielle Ryan. 
- Brett Kissel: Watch It becomes a top 5 hit, but the follow up would struggle, being polarizing like Ain't The Same. New EP would be dropped in the summer.
- Dallas Smith: A follow-up to One Too will become a #1 hit, continuing his #1 streak for a solo single, and the new album will drop in the fall. 
- David James: Let Her Go scratches the bottom of the chart in the spring, but no other single release.
- Dayna Reid: A debut single Back to The Trailer becomes a top 30 hit, and the follow-up would also have a similar chart run. One of the new figures in 2023.
- Dean Brody: Wrong Guy becomes top 5 hit, and new album also drops in the fall. Have another tour with Dallas Smith.
- Don Amero: Release another rock-oriented single, but fail to out peak Let You.
- Dustin Bird: Send a first radio single in Canada, and scrape the 30s. 
- Eric Ethridge: Drop a new single and come back to the chart, despite being a top 40 hit.
- Five Roses: Will be dropped from MDM after the current single fails to chart.
- Gord Bamford: An uptempo lead single from the new era would drop in the spring and become top 20 hit. No new album.
- High Valley: Release Way Back and Prayin Woman as their third and fourth single, and both would miss #1.
- Hunter Brothers: What Color You Drive flops, and another follow-up would be coming with a new EP, but also flops, stalling in the 40s.
- Jade Eagleson: The ballad follow-up to "Boots" will become a #1 hit. New album will drop in the fall. 
- James Barker Band: A new single drop in the early spring and score another #1. New album drops in the summer.
- Jess Moskaluke: The uptempo follow-up to Knock Off would be a top 10 hit in the summer.
- Jojo Mason: The third single Hung Over Alone would be released, but stall in the 20s. Lead single to the next era announced in the fall.
- Josh Ross: On A Different Night become a #1 hit, and the follow-up would also be a top 10 hit. A debut new album would be released, and he joins A-tier on the chart.
- Kalsey Kulyk: Big Deal fails to chart, and the follow-up would also not collect enough adds.
- Lindsay Ell: Drop a ballad single in the summer and score top 10, but no move in the US. No new album.
- Nate Haller: Budweiser stalls in the 20s, and the follow-up would further flop in the 40s.
- MacKenzie Porter: An uptempo follow-up to Pick Up scores another top 10 hit. Full album drops in the fall.
- Madeline Merlo: Slide is sent to the radio in the first quarter and become top 20 hit. The follow up would be I Need A Drink, released in the fall. Slide is also sent to the US radio in the summer, but fail to chart.
- Matt Lang: A solo single will be released, and because of its catchy melody, it becomes as big of a hit as Getcha. 
- Meghan Patrick: A new love song drops in the first quarter, but remain quiet for the rest, focusing on her new married life. 
- SACHA: Call It Country scratches the bottom of the chart, but no movement after.
- Steven Lee Olsen: Drop another 5 song EP, one of which is a radio single to become a top 20 hit in fall.
- Shantaia: Drop some singles and receive around 3 adds, failing to chart.
- Tebey: After a slow climb, Sink With The Sun manage to become a top 20 hit. A follow-up would be R&B like, released with a new EP in the summer, becoming another slow hit, peaking in 2024.
- Tenille Arts: Girl To Girl and Jealous of Myself become top 10 hit in Canada, but the latter would struggle in the US, stalling in the late 40s around fall. 
- Tenille Townes: Continues to be one of the most successful women in Canadian country radio with top 5 of Last Time, and the follow-up is a catchy lead single from Silver Lining, dropping in May.
- Tim Hicks: Talk To Time is the follow-up, and become a top 20 hit. The follow-up would be released in the fall, another uptempo rock track.
- Tim & The Glory Boys: The follow-up to Float is a ballad, but it flops in the spring, barely making it to the top 30. 
- The Reklaws: Drop another summary poppy single in the spring and score a top 5 hit. No new album.
- Tyler Joe Miller: Never Met A Beer becomes the top 10 hit, and a follow-up would sound like something Riley Green would record, bringing him back to #1. New ep would drop in the fall.

No move for Dax, George Canyon, Emerson Drive, Kristin Carter, Maddision Kozack, Shawn Austin.

[mnvikings]

Dec 6, 2022 19:15:58 GMT -5 🌺CountryLineDancer said:

I'm gonna focus on Canadian country music scene, as I would assume other posters have more interesting predictions for the US artists. 

2023 Prediction

- Aaron Goodvin: After a slow climb, You Ain't become top 15 hit. He will release a lead single from the next era in the summer, and peaks around the end of the year. You Ain't is also sent to the US small market, and scrape the Music Row chart.
- Aaron Pritchett: Another release of a standalone single and barely get any adds.
- Alee: 24 fails to chart.
- Andrew Hyatt: Four Good Years become top 30 hit, and the new follow-up would be a duet with Danielle Ryan. 
- Brett Kissel: Watch It becomes a top 5 hit, but the follow up would struggle, being polarizing like Ain't The Same. New EP would be dropped in the summer.
- Dallas Smith: A follow-up to One Too will become a #1 hit, continuing his #1 streak for a solo single, and the new album will drop in the fall. 
- David James: Let Her Go scratches the bottom of the chart in the spring, but no other single release.
- Dayna Reid: A debut single Back to The Trailer becomes a top 30 hit, and the follow-up would also have a similar chart run. One of the new figures in 2023.
- Dean Brody: Wrong Guy becomes top 5 hit, and new album also drops in the fall. Have another tour with Dallas Smith.
- Don Amero: Release another rock-oriented single, but fail to out peak Let You.
- Dustin Bird: Send a first radio single in Canada, and scrape the 30s. 
- Eric Ethridge: Drop a new single and come back to the chart, despite being a top 40 hit.
- Five Roses: Will be dropped from MDM after the current single fails to chart.
- Gord Bamford: An uptempo lead single from the new era would drop in the spring and become top 20 hit. No new album.
- High Valley: Release Way Back and Prayin Woman as their third and fourth single, and both would miss #1.
- Hunter Brothers: What Color You Drive flops, and another follow-up would be coming with a new EP, but also flops, stalling in the 40s.
- Jade Eagleson: The ballad follow-up to "Boots" will become a #1 hit. New album will drop in the fall. 
- James Barker Band: A new single drop in the early spring and score another #1. New album drops in the summer.
- Jess Moskaluke: The uptempo follow-up to Knock Off would be a top 10 hit in the summer.
- Jojo Mason: The third single Hung Over Alone would be released, but stall in the 20s. Lead single to the next era announced in the fall.
- Josh Ross: On A Different Night become a #1 hit, and the follow-up would also be a top 10 hit. A debut new album would be released, and he joins A-tier on the chart.
- Kalsey Kulyk: Big Deal fails to chart, and the follow-up would also not collect enough adds.
- Lindsay Ell: Drop a ballad single in the summer and score top 10, but no move in the US. No new album.
- Nate Haller: Budweiser stalls in the 20s, and the follow-up would further flop in the 40s.
- MacKenzie Porter: An uptempo follow-up to Pick Up scores another top 10 hit. Full album drops in the fall.
- Madeline Merlo: Slide is sent to the radio in the first quarter and become top 20 hit. The follow up would be I Need A Drink, released in the fall. Slide is also sent to the US radio in the summer, but fail to chart.
- Matt Lang: A solo single will be released, and because of its catchy melody, it becomes as big of a hit as Getcha. 
- Meghan Patrick: A new love song drops in the first quarter, but remain quiet for the rest, focusing on her new married life. 
- SACHA: Call It Country scratches the bottom of the chart, but no movement after.
- Steven Lee Olsen: Drop another 5 song EP, one of which is a radio single to become a top 20 hit in fall.
- Shantaia: Drop some singles and receive around 3 adds, failing to chart.
- Tebey: After a slow climb, Sink With The Sun manage to become a top 20 hit. A follow-up would be R&B like, released with a new EP in the summer, becoming another slow hit, peaking in 2024.
- Tenille Arts: Girl To Girl and Jealous of Myself become top 10 hit in Canada, but the latter would struggle in the US, stalling in the late 40s around fall. 
- Tenille Townes: Continues to be one of the most successful women in Canadian country radio with top 5 of Last Time, and the follow-up is a catchy lead single from Silver Lining, dropping in May.
- Tim Hicks: Talk To Time is the follow-up, and become a top 20 hit. The follow-up would be released in the fall, another uptempo rock track.
- Tim & The Glory Boys: The follow-up to Float is a ballad, but it flops in the spring, barely making it to the top 30. 
- The Reklaws: Drop another summary poppy single in the spring and score a top 5 hit. No new album.
- Tyler Joe Miller: Never Met A Beer becomes the top 10 hit, and a follow-up would sound like something Riley Green would record, bringing him back to #1. New ep would drop in the fall.

No move for Dax, George Canyon, Emerson Drive, Kristin Carter, Maddision Kozack, Shawn Austin.

I listen to a lot of Canadian country so I enjoyed reading this. Whatever happened to Chad Brownlee though?

[🌺CountryLineDancer]

Dec 7, 2022 19:58:54 GMT -5 mnvikings said:

I listen to a lot of Canadian country so I enjoyed reading this. Whatever happened to Chad Brownlee though?

I don't clearly remember, but he made some comment on Twitter that caused him to be dropped from the label back in the summer of 2020. Since then, he has been independent, and he has not released any song. I still hear him on the radio frequently, and he is playing shows here and there. 

He is honestly one of my favs (living in BC, so I have a bias), so I really hope that he is coming back with new music. I recall him posting a photo of him in a studio, but that was like early this year, so I wonder what he is up to...

[christianlarson9]

The 90's-early 2000's country revival has been a really fun trend this past year. I really hope next year is more laid-back country in terms of what's popular. Looking at what's bubbling under Top 10 at radio we have a handful of songs that fit that sound. "Heart Like A Truck", "Going, Going, Gone", "Thought You Should Know" and "What He Didn't Do" are just a few examples.
 

[mnvikings]

Dec 7, 2022 20:13:25 GMT -5 🌺CountryLineDancer said:

Dec 7, 2022 19:58:54 GMT -5 mnvikings said:

I listen to a lot of Canadian country so I enjoyed reading this. Whatever happened to Chad Brownlee though?

I don't clearly remember, but he made some comment on Twitter that caused him to be dropped from the label back in the summer of 2020. Since then, he has been independent, and he has not released any song. I still hear him on the radio frequently, and he is playing shows here and there. 

He is honestly one of my favs (living in BC, so I have a bias), so I really hope that he is coming back with new music. I recall him posting a photo of him in a studio, but that was like early this year, so I wonder what he is up to...

He got dropped from his label for that?? Wow. I guess there’s certain billionaires you can’t make comments about. I enjoyed him quite a bit too.

[stanches2318]

Dec 7, 2022 19:58:54 GMT -5 mnvikings said:

Dec 6, 2022 19:15:58 GMT -5 🌺CountryLineDancer said:

I'm gonna focus on Canadian country music scene, as I would assume other posters have more interesting predictions for the US artists. 

2023 Prediction

- Aaron Goodvin: After a slow climb, You Ain't become top 15 hit. He will release a lead single from the next era in the summer, and peaks around the end of the year. You Ain't is also sent to the US small market, and scrape the Music Row chart.
- Aaron Pritchett: Another release of a standalone single and barely get any adds.
- Alee: 24 fails to chart.
- Andrew Hyatt: Four Good Years become top 30 hit, and the new follow-up would be a duet with Danielle Ryan. 
- Brett Kissel: Watch It becomes a top 5 hit, but the follow up would struggle, being polarizing like Ain't The Same. New EP would be dropped in the summer.
- Dallas Smith: A follow-up to One Too will become a #1 hit, continuing his #1 streak for a solo single, and the new album will drop in the fall. 
- David James: Let Her Go scratches the bottom of the chart in the spring, but no other single release.
- Dayna Reid: A debut single Back to The Trailer becomes a top 30 hit, and the follow-up would also have a similar chart run. One of the new figures in 2023.
- Dean Brody: Wrong Guy becomes top 5 hit, and new album also drops in the fall. Have another tour with Dallas Smith.
- Don Amero: Release another rock-oriented single, but fail to out peak Let You.
- Dustin Bird: Send a first radio single in Canada, and scrape the 30s. 
- Eric Ethridge: Drop a new single and come back to the chart, despite being a top 40 hit.
- Five Roses: Will be dropped from MDM after the current single fails to chart.
- Gord Bamford: An uptempo lead single from the new era would drop in the spring and become top 20 hit. No new album.
- High Valley: Release Way Back and Prayin Woman as their third and fourth single, and both would miss #1.
- Hunter Brothers: What Color You Drive flops, and another follow-up would be coming with a new EP, but also flops, stalling in the 40s.
- Jade Eagleson: The ballad follow-up to "Boots" will become a #1 hit. New album will drop in the fall. 
- James Barker Band: A new single drop in the early spring and score another #1. New album drops in the summer.
- Jess Moskaluke: The uptempo follow-up to Knock Off would be a top 10 hit in the summer.
- Jojo Mason: The third single Hung Over Alone would be released, but stall in the 20s. Lead single to the next era announced in the fall.
- Josh Ross: On A Different Night become a #1 hit, and the follow-up would also be a top 10 hit. A debut new album would be released, and he joins A-tier on the chart.
- Kalsey Kulyk: Big Deal fails to chart, and the follow-up would also not collect enough adds.
- Lindsay Ell: Drop a ballad single in the summer and score top 10, but no move in the US. No new album.
- Nate Haller: Budweiser stalls in the 20s, and the follow-up would further flop in the 40s.
- MacKenzie Porter: An uptempo follow-up to Pick Up scores another top 10 hit. Full album drops in the fall.
- Madeline Merlo: Slide is sent to the radio in the first quarter and become top 20 hit. The follow up would be I Need A Drink, released in the fall. Slide is also sent to the US radio in the summer, but fail to chart.
- Matt Lang: A solo single will be released, and because of its catchy melody, it becomes as big of a hit as Getcha. 
- Meghan Patrick: A new love song drops in the first quarter, but remain quiet for the rest, focusing on her new married life. 
- SACHA: Call It Country scratches the bottom of the chart, but no movement after.
- Steven Lee Olsen: Drop another 5 song EP, one of which is a radio single to become a top 20 hit in fall.
- Shantaia: Drop some singles and receive around 3 adds, failing to chart.
- Tebey: After a slow climb, Sink With The Sun manage to become a top 20 hit. A follow-up would be R&B like, released with a new EP in the summer, becoming another slow hit, peaking in 2024.
- Tenille Arts: Girl To Girl and Jealous of Myself become top 10 hit in Canada, but the latter would struggle in the US, stalling in the late 40s around fall. 
- Tenille Townes: Continues to be one of the most successful women in Canadian country radio with top 5 of Last Time, and the follow-up is a catchy lead single from Silver Lining, dropping in May.
- Tim Hicks: Talk To Time is the follow-up, and become a top 20 hit. The follow-up would be released in the fall, another uptempo rock track.
- Tim & The Glory Boys: The follow-up to Float is a ballad, but it flops in the spring, barely making it to the top 30. 
- The Reklaws: Drop another summary poppy single in the spring and score a top 5 hit. No new album.
- Tyler Joe Miller: Never Met A Beer becomes the top 10 hit, and a follow-up would sound like something Riley Green would record, bringing him back to #1. New ep would drop in the fall.

No move for Dax, George Canyon, Emerson Drive, Kristin Carter, Maddision Kozack, Shawn Austin.

I listen to a lot of Canadian country so I enjoyed reading this. Whatever happened to Chad Brownlee though?

[stanches2318]

Dec 7, 2022 19:58:54 GMT -5 mnvikings said:

Dec 6, 2022 19:15:58 GMT -5 🌺CountryLineDancer said:

I'm gonna focus on Canadian country music scene, as I would assume other posters have more interesting predictions for the US artists. 

2023 Prediction

- Aaron Goodvin: After a slow climb, You Ain't become top 15 hit. He will release a lead single from the next era in the summer, and peaks around the end of the year. You Ain't is also sent to the US small market, and scrape the Music Row chart.
- Aaron Pritchett: Another release of a standalone single and barely get any adds.
- Alee: 24 fails to chart.
- Andrew Hyatt: Four Good Years become top 30 hit, and the new follow-up would be a duet with Danielle Ryan. 
- Brett Kissel: Watch It becomes a top 5 hit, but the follow up would struggle, being polarizing like Ain't The Same. New EP would be dropped in the summer.
- Dallas Smith: A follow-up to One Too will become a #1 hit, continuing his #1 streak for a solo single, and the new album will drop in the fall. 
- David James: Let Her Go scratches the bottom of the chart in the spring, but no other single release.
- Dayna Reid: A debut single Back to The Trailer becomes a top 30 hit, and the follow-up would also have a similar chart run. One of the new figures in 2023.
- Dean Brody: Wrong Guy becomes top 5 hit, and new album also drops in the fall. Have another tour with Dallas Smith.
- Don Amero: Release another rock-oriented single, but fail to out peak Let You.
- Dustin Bird: Send a first radio single in Canada, and scrape the 30s. 
- Eric Ethridge: Drop a new single and come back to the chart, despite being a top 40 hit.
- Five Roses: Will be dropped from MDM after the current single fails to chart.
- Gord Bamford: An uptempo lead single from the new era would drop in the spring and become top 20 hit. No new album.
- High Valley: Release Way Back and Prayin Woman as their third and fourth single, and both would miss #1.
- Hunter Brothers: What Color You Drive flops, and another follow-up would be coming with a new EP, but also flops, stalling in the 40s.
- Jade Eagleson: The ballad follow-up to "Boots" will become a #1 hit. New album will drop in the fall. 
- James Barker Band: A new single drop in the early spring and score another #1. New album drops in the summer.
- Jess Moskaluke: The uptempo follow-up to Knock Off would be a top 10 hit in the summer.
- Jojo Mason: The third single Hung Over Alone would be released, but stall in the 20s. Lead single to the next era announced in the fall.
- Josh Ross: On A Different Night become a #1 hit, and the follow-up would also be a top 10 hit. A debut new album would be released, and he joins A-tier on the chart.
- Kalsey Kulyk: Big Deal fails to chart, and the follow-up would also not collect enough adds.
- Lindsay Ell: Drop a ballad single in the summer and score top 10, but no move in the US. No new album.
- Nate Haller: Budweiser stalls in the 20s, and the follow-up would further flop in the 40s.
- MacKenzie Porter: An uptempo follow-up to Pick Up scores another top 10 hit. Full album drops in the fall.
- Madeline Merlo: Slide is sent to the radio in the first quarter and become top 20 hit. The follow up would be I Need A Drink, released in the fall. Slide is also sent to the US radio in the summer, but fail to chart.
- Matt Lang: A solo single will be released, and because of its catchy melody, it becomes as big of a hit as Getcha. 
- Meghan Patrick: A new love song drops in the first quarter, but remain quiet for the rest, focusing on her new married life. 
- SACHA: Call It Country scratches the bottom of the chart, but no movement after.
- Steven Lee Olsen: Drop another 5 song EP, one of which is a radio single to become a top 20 hit in fall.
- Shantaia: Drop some singles and receive around 3 adds, failing to chart.
- Tebey: After a slow climb, Sink With The Sun manage to become a top 20 hit. A follow-up would be R&B like, released with a new EP in the summer, becoming another slow hit, peaking in 2024.
- Tenille Arts: Girl To Girl and Jealous of Myself become top 10 hit in Canada, but the latter would struggle in the US, stalling in the late 40s around fall. 
- Tenille Townes: Continues to be one of the most successful women in Canadian country radio with top 5 of Last Time, and the follow-up is a catchy lead single from Silver Lining, dropping in May.
- Tim Hicks: Talk To Time is the follow-up, and become a top 20 hit. The follow-up would be released in the fall, another uptempo rock track.
- Tim & The Glory Boys: The follow-up to Float is a ballad, but it flops in the spring, barely making it to the top 30. 
- The Reklaws: Drop another summary poppy single in the spring and score a top 5 hit. No new album.
- Tyler Joe Miller: Never Met A Beer becomes the top 10 hit, and a follow-up would sound like something Riley Green would record, bringing him back to #1. New ep would drop in the fall.

No move for Dax, George Canyon, Emerson Drive, Kristin Carter, Maddision Kozack, Shawn Austin.

I listen to a lot of Canadian country so I enjoyed reading this. Whatever happened to Chad Brownlee though?

Myself also. I like MacKenIe Porter, Madison Kozak, Tenille Arts. MacKenzie told the dude who works with the Tennessean on the CMA red carpet that she’s expects to have her album out by Summer 2023,

[zdm1998]

Love these. So I'll bring back mine from last year and see how it fared.

Last Year's:

Carrie Underwood: Releases the lead single off of her seventh studio album in Q2 and is well received, the album is released in late Q3 or early Q4 and is more of a return to form for her after a very experiential Cry Pretty era. I assume this era will play more in radio’s wheelhouse than the last one (hopefully.)
Maren Morris: Lead comes early January (confirmed) and album is dropped around March. Feel like the theme will be more laid back and relaxed, she’s had seashells in her twitter bio for sometime now, so beach theme? Only time will tell. The music will be well received nonetheless.
Kelsea Ballerini: Half of my Hometown hits #1 on both charts sometime in February/March. From the year end edition it looks like her team is opting for a quick turnaround so I assume a lead to be released in April/ May. I assume the album will be dropped in Q4 maybe in November like Unapologetically. Interested to see where she goes sonically with this one; I feel like she is going to try to push barriers even more than with her self-titled.
Miranda Lambert: Drunk peaks somewhere inside the top 10 as does If I Was A Cowboy, neither go #1 though. Miranda’s next album is much less radio friendly than Wildcard leading her to not have quite the radio exposure like she did during Wildcard. The album comes in Q3 and is well received however, maybe a mixture of The Weight of These Wings & Wildcard sonically.
Carly Pearce: Never Wanted to be that Girl goes #1 sometime in March/ April and What He Didn’t Do is released as the followup. What He Didn’t Do becomes her biggest solo hit, surpassing Every Little Thing; this year only continues to build her rise as one of the main females in country music at the moment.
Gabby Barrett: Pick Me Up is released in January/ February and is a long chart run. The song ultimately peaks within the top 5 near the end of the year.
Ingrid Andress: Wishful Drinking turns into a sleeper hit and has a long climb, but is nearing the top of the charts somewhere around this time next year.
Priscilla Block: My Bar is released in Q1 and like Gabby and Ingrid has a slow climb up the chart. This one mirrors the chart run of Just About Over You, but manages to peak inside the top 10.
Mickey Guyton: I feel like she could go either way. I’ll give a pessimistic opinion and an optimistic opinion. Her label continues to keep her visible and book her on major television outlets, but still doesn’t click with the general public (Pessimistic side). She wins her first Grammy and her label sends the title track to radio immediately following them and becomes a top 40 hit (optimistic side).
Lauren Alaina: Lauren’s opry membership/ induction gives Getting Over Him enough momentum to score a top 20 peak. Good Ole Boy is released as the next single and becomes a sleeper hit.
Tenille Arts: Back then right now takes the majority of 2022 to climb, but ultimately climbs to the top spot somewhere in Q3. She follows it up with One Bedroom Apartment which connects much better than her first two singles, and becomes her biggest hit to date.


Commentary:

Carrie Underwood: Carrie released Ghost Story at the tail end of Q1 and Denim & Rhinestones in Q2. I consider it more of a return to form for her compared to her last era, and think it does play more into radio's wheelhouse. Hasn't been received like her past albums, but the change in consumption of music from sales to streaming has hit a lot of major stars as well, making me think it's more everyone underperforming and trying to adapt to the shift, than just specifically her. 
Maren Morris: Circles Around This Town and Humble Quest did come out January and March respectively, and the album does have a very laid back vibe. Like Carrie, wasn't received the best, but for the same reason, some of that might be due to the album, but I think a lot of that could be the shift in consumption.
Kelsea Ballerini: Half of my hometown did end up snagging #1 on both charts in March, and had her lead single (Heartfirst) release a month later. Subject to Change dropped tail end of Q3, and by pleasant surprise, instead of boundary pushing she opted to release her countriest record to date. 
Miranda Lambert: If I was a cowboy did stall upon entering the top 10 on mediabase, but Drunk was able to go the distance. I do consider Palomino to be less radio friendly than Wildcard, and am curious how the rest of the era will pan out for her given radio's slow response to Strange (the most radio friendly song on the record.)
Carly Pearce: Never Wanted To Be That Girl in fact did make it's way to #1 in May, and the fan favorite What He Didn't Do was released as the follow up as the final single from the 29 era and is still climbing the charts. 
Gabby Barrett: Pick Me Up came out in February and currently is still climbing the chart (even though on fumes). Think she can still get to the top 5 on mediabase, not very sure about #1.
Ingrid Andress: Wishful Drinking thankfully turned into a hit going #1 a few weeks ago, but radio took entirely too long to send up the chart.
Pricilla Block: My Bar had a slow steady climb to the top 25, and I still believe it would have at least matched Just About Over You's peak if her label didn't decide to focus on the Justin Moore duet.
Mickey Guyton: Unfortunately, the pessimistic opinion is the opinion that took place. Mickey has had a relatively quiet year and unfortunately didn't win the Grammy's she was nominated for. 
Lauren Alaina: Unfortunately Getting Over Him performed like her singles usually did, limping into the top 30, before being dropped. Lauren decided to leave UMG in favor of Big Loud Records, leaving Good Ole Boy as the song that got away.
Tenille Arts: Unfortunately I was a little too optimistic with this prediction, Back Then Right Now peaked right outside the top 30, and like Lauren, left her label, leaving One Bedroom Apartment as an album cut.

I look forward to making another one of these for the upcoming year as well.

[recordyear]

Random 2023 predictions:

- There will be a black female country artist featured in one of the bigger country hits (Hot 100 year-end level). It won't be Mickey Guyton.
- Turnpike Troubadour's comeback will have similar trajectory to Kendrick Lamar's comeback as in the massive hype is there but it died down quickly
- Morgan Wallen will be engaged at least or even married
- Chris Stapleton sweeps awards with his new music

[zdm1998]

Taking a break from opening presants so I thought I'd knock this out. The women are who I watch the most so that's who I did. And only the one's I know enough to have an opinion on. 

Carrie Underwood: "Hate My Heart" peaks sometime in May/June (hopefully at #1) and "Burn" is released as the third official single off Denim and Rhinestones and is nearing the top 10 by the end of the year.
Maren Morris: "I Can't Love You Anymore" is promoted through February/March, but doesn't get the traction it needs from radio. No more singles are released from Humble Quest. Rumblings of new music by the end of the year (either solo or a new duet.)
Kelsea Ballerini: "If You Go Down (I'm Going Down Too)" has a relatively long climb up the chart, but goes #1 late summer early fall. "Muscle Memory" is released as the third single. 
Miranda Lambert: Kind of leaning towards no more Palomino singles, given how "Strange" outright flopped, but if we do get another one my money is either on "Waxahachie" or "Carousel." I do think "Carousel" will be played on a big stage (Grammy's, CMTs, ACMs, or CMAs) whether it becomes a single or not. I suspect the Luke duet will also go to radio sometime, and might be what they opt for as a single over another Palomino single. 
Carly Pearce: "What He Didn't Do" goes #1 sometime around March, and I think if it runs into the right timing it could be her first single to get multiple week's at #1 due to the great connection and the good callouts. I suspect the lead single to the next album come out sometime in the summer. Not sure when the album comes out. If next year probably won't be till the end, most likely wont be till beginning of 2024 if I were to guess. Do think we will get some promotional singles in 2023 though after the lead. 
Gabby Barrett: "Pick Me Up" peaks somewhere in the top 3 in late January. I do think it could possibly go #1 if Warner times it correctly.
Ingrid Andress: I really don't know how radio is going to take to "Feel Like This," but I'm going to be optimistic and say it at least goes top 20 by the end of the year. "Yearbook" will be the next single if "Feel Like This" doesn't outright flop.
Priscilla Block: I suspect the Justin Moore duet will become Pricilla's first #1 hit, peaking sometime in the late summer early fall. A lead single to her next album be released shortly after. 
Lauren Alaina: Lauren releases her debut single on Big Loud Records sometime in Q2 and it is top 20 by the end of the year. I'm betting her new material is going to have some Morgan Wallen/HARDY type country flare. 
Tenille Arts: I really hope I'm wrong about this one, but I'm just not sure that I see radio taking to her new song that's impacting in January. If her previous label could only get Back Then Right Now to right around the 30s range, despite being radio friendly, I can't imagine a completely unknown label getting a less radio friendly song to that. 
Lainey Wilson: "Heart Like a Truck" goes #1 in late February, early March. Going to have to relisten to the record to decide what I think they'll go with next. I suspect she will continue to grow in popularity as more people discover her next year. 
Megan Maroney: Tennessee Orange goes #1 in the fall with her debut album coming out around the same time. I really think she is going to be one of the next big women in the genre. 

[cousingerard]

Dec 25, 2022 17:32:08 GMT -5 zdm1998 said:

Taking a break from opening presants so I thought I'd knock this out. The women are who I watch the most so that's who I did. And only the one's I know enough to have an opinion on. 

Carrie Underwood: "Hate My Heart" peaks sometime in May/June (hopefully at #1) and "Burn" is released as the third official single off Denim and Rhinestones and is nearing the top 10 by the end of the year.
Maren Morris: "I Can't Love You Anymore" is promoted through February/March, but doesn't get the traction it needs from radio. No more singles are released from Humble Quest. Rumblings of new music by the end of the year (either solo or a new duet.)
Kelsea Ballerini: "If You Go Down (I'm Going Down Too)" has a relatively long climb up the chart, but goes #1 late summer early fall. "Muscle Memory" is released as the third single. 
Miranda Lambert: Kind of leaning towards no more Palomino singles, given how "Strange" outright flopped, but if we do get another one my money is either on "Waxahachie" or "Carousel." I do think "Carousel" will be played on a big stage (Grammy's, CMTs, ACMs, or CMAs) whether it becomes a single or not. I suspect the Luke duet will also go to radio sometime, and might be what they opt for as a single over another Palomino single. 
Carly Pearce: "What He Didn't Do" goes #1 sometime around March, and I think if it runs into the right timing it could be her first single to get multiple week's at #1 due to the great connection and the good callouts. I suspect the lead single to the next album come out sometime in the summer. Not sure when the album comes out. If next year probably won't be till the end, most likely wont be till beginning of 2024 if I were to guess. Do think we will get some promotional singles in 2023 though after the lead. 
Gabby Barrett: "Pick Me Up" peaks somewhere in the top 3 in late January. I do think it could possibly go #1 if Warner times it correctly.
Ingrid Andress: I really don't know how radio is going to take to "Feel Like This," but I'm going to be optimistic and say it at least goes top 20 by the end of the year. "Yearbook" will be the next single if "Feel Like This" doesn't outright flop.
Priscilla Block: I suspect the Justin Moore duet will become Pricilla's first #1 hit, peaking sometime in the late summer early fall. A lead single to her next album be released shortly after. 
Lauren Alaina: Lauren releases her debut single on Big Loud Records sometime in Q2 and it is top 20 by the end of the year. I'm betting her new material is going to have some Morgan Wallen/HARDY type country flare. 
Tenille Arts: I really hope I'm wrong about this one, but I'm just not sure that I see radio taking to her new song that's impacting in January. If her previous label could only get Back Then Right Now to right around the 30s range, despite being radio friendly, I can't imagine a completely unknown label getting a less radio friendly song to that. 
Lainey Wilson: "Heart Like a Truck" goes #1 in late February, early March. Going to have to relisten to the record to decide what I think they'll go with next. I suspect she will continue to grow in popularity as more people discover her next year. 
Megan Maroney: Tennessee Orange goes #1 in the fall with her debut album coming out around the same time. I really think she is going to be one of the next big women in the genre. 

5, possibly 6 solo female #1s? That'd make 2023 a pretty awesome year for women in Country.

[mnvikings]

Dec 25, 2022 17:32:08 GMT -5 zdm1998 said:

Taking a break from opening presants so I thought I'd knock this out. The women are who I watch the most so that's who I did. And only the one's I know enough to have an opinion on. 

Carrie Underwood: "Hate My Heart" peaks sometime in May/June (hopefully at #1) and "Burn" is released as the third official single off Denim and Rhinestones and is nearing the top 10 by the end of the year.
Maren Morris: "I Can't Love You Anymore" is promoted through February/March, but doesn't get the traction it needs from radio. No more singles are released from Humble Quest. Rumblings of new music by the end of the year (either solo or a new duet.)
Kelsea Ballerini: "If You Go Down (I'm Going Down Too)" has a relatively long climb up the chart, but goes #1 late summer early fall. "Muscle Memory" is released as the third single. 
Miranda Lambert: Kind of leaning towards no more Palomino singles, given how "Strange" outright flopped, but if we do get another one my money is either on "Waxahachie" or "Carousel." I do think "Carousel" will be played on a big stage (Grammy's, CMTs, ACMs, or CMAs) whether it becomes a single or not. I suspect the Luke duet will also go to radio sometime, and might be what they opt for as a single over another Palomino single. 
Carly Pearce: "What He Didn't Do" goes #1 sometime around March, and I think if it runs into the right timing it could be her first single to get multiple week's at #1 due to the great connection and the good callouts. I suspect the lead single to the next album come out sometime in the summer. Not sure when the album comes out. If next year probably won't be till the end, most likely wont be till beginning of 2024 if I were to guess. Do think we will get some promotional singles in 2023 though after the lead. 
Gabby Barrett: "Pick Me Up" peaks somewhere in the top 3 in late January. I do think it could possibly go #1 if Warner times it correctly.
Ingrid Andress: I really don't know how radio is going to take to "Feel Like This," but I'm going to be optimistic and say it at least goes top 20 by the end of the year. "Yearbook" will be the next single if "Feel Like This" doesn't outright flop.
Priscilla Block: I suspect the Justin Moore duet will become Pricilla's first #1 hit, peaking sometime in the late summer early fall. A lead single to her next album be released shortly after. 
Lauren Alaina: Lauren releases her debut single on Big Loud Records sometime in Q2 and it is top 20 by the end of the year. I'm betting her new material is going to have some Morgan Wallen/HARDY type country flare. 
Tenille Arts: I really hope I'm wrong about this one, but I'm just not sure that I see radio taking to her new song that's impacting in January. If her previous label could only get Back Then Right Now to right around the 30s range, despite being radio friendly, I can't imagine a completely unknown label getting a less radio friendly song to that. 
Lainey Wilson: "Heart Like a Truck" goes #1 in late February, early March. Going to have to relisten to the record to decide what I think they'll go with next. I suspect she will continue to grow in popularity as more people discover her next year. 
Megan Maroney: Tennessee Orange goes #1 in the fall with her debut album coming out around the same time. I really think she is going to be one of the next big women in the genre. 

I’m not sure why Tenille Arts didn’t release Girl To Girl in the US.

[HeyHeyHey]

I am going to focus on several of my favorite artists for this post:

Luke Combs - "Going, Going, Gone" reaches #1 in February! His next single will be "Tattoo On A Sunburn" (a song he has teased on social media recently). He will release it in early April and it will be one of the biggest songs of the spring/summer. In June he will release the the other half of the 'Growin' Up' album titled 'Gettin' Old' and it will feature the song "Growin' Up and Gettin' Old" that he posted a video of a while back. The 'Growin' Up and Gettin' Old' album will include a track that features a non-mainstream country artist/Americana artist.

Jordan Davis - "What My World Spins Around" becomes a #1 hit on Billboard Country Airplay (already a #1 on Mediabase). His follow-up "Part Of It" is one of the big hits of 2023 and moves up the chart much quicker than his previous singles. 'Bluebird Days' will be really well-received and will showcase Jordan's growth as a songwriter and artist. Jordan will be a musical guest on SNL in 2023.

Eric Church - Eric's current single "Doin' Life With Me" reaches the top 20 on country radio but doesn't get much further than that. I think it will be a mostly quiet year for Eric but in the fall he will announce that there is new music on the way in 2024.

Jon Pardi - "Your Heart Or Mine" will be a top 5 hit for Jon Pardi but it won't reach #1 and certainly won't be seen as one of his biggest hits. "Workin' On A New One" will be the following single and will connect really well.

Blake Shelton - In 2023, Blake will be a coach on The Voice for the final time. He will win his final season with a country singer (which is hardly a prediction at this point because it feels like he wins with a country singer every other season). He will release a single with Gwen Stefani during the airing of the season (maybe March) and it will be one of the big hits of the spring/summer. He won't release an album in 2023.

As for "No Body" - I think it stops being promoted in February with a peak just inside the top 20.

Lainey Wilson - I think 2023 is going to be a HUGE year for Lainey! "Heart Like a Truck" and "wait in the truck" both reach #1 on country radio by the middle of April. The collaboration with HARDY reaches #1 on the Hot Country Songs chart and spends at least one week in the Hot 100 top 20.

She will continue to appear on Yellowstone (which I am currently behind on...) and will help keep her in the spotlight throughout the year. She will win some ACMs and CMAs in 2023.

Old Dominion - In February, Old Dominion will release the lead single to their next album which will come out in the late spring/early summer. The single will be super fun and less polarizing than "I Was On a Boat That Day". It will be their first #1 hit on country radio since "One Man Band".

Miranda Lambert - I think Miranda will have a quiet first half of 2023 but in the summer or fall she will announce a duets album. The first single will be released in August and will feature one of the newer women in country music!

Lee Brice - In January we will get the lead single from his next project. It will be similar topically to "A Woman Like You" and will be a big hit throughout the year.

Chris Stapleton - Chris will release the lead single from his next album in the summer! I think it'll be something a little less universal than "Starting Over" and won't be nearly as big of a hit - but he won't care and the album that comes in the fall will be incredible. I'm predicting two collaborations on the next album (one with a woman who isn't considered country and one with a man who is country).

Carly Pearce - "What He Didn't Do" will be a #1 hit in the early part of the year and the following single will be an uptempo that moves up the chart a little quicker.

Some general predictions:

- After the success of "She Had Me At Heads Carolina", it becomes a trend to create country songs about other country songs. None of them will have nearly the same success as Cole's hit did this year.

- A song from before 2010 goes viral on TikTok or because of a movie/tv show and we end up seeing it become a big hit in 2023.

- Someone is going to record and post a video of Jason Aldean being rude to a waiter/waitress at a restaurant and post it on social media. His wife is going to threaten to sue the person who took the video.

- Either Tom Brady or Pete Davidson will start dating a country artist in 2023.

- Chase Rice goes on Survivor again.

- More women hit #1 on country radio in 2023 than 2022 (twice as many actually!)

- New George Strait album!

- Zach Bryan releases more music and increases his following! He will be the musical guest on SNL in 2023 despite not performing at any country award shows or making the top 20 on radio.

[phil1996]

Turnpike Troubadours return with another incredible album and really start to blow up with popularity

Eric Church doesn’t see much success Doing Life With Me but comes back strong with a big lead single, debuted at the ACM’s, and return to form album come fall

Kip Moore goes independent and releases a ton of music

Tyler Childers releases an EP that ends up being one of his greatest pieces of work

Brantley Gilbert gets dropped by his label

Chris Stapleton sweeps the awards with upcoming new music

[🌺CountryLineDancer]

Dec 25, 2022 19:45:24 GMT -5 mnvikings said:

I’m not sure why Tenille Arts didn’t release Girl To Girl in the US.

Well, as much as I like that song, not sure how much it did to her in the US, considering that it is a similar uptempo pop country tune to Back Then, and Back Then barely made it to the 30s after a lengthy chart run. I do wonder, however, what took them so long to release that song even in Canada, probably something to do with label change.

[jessica03181990]

Hate My Heart misses the top 5, Burn becomes single 3

What He Didn’t Do goes number 1

Pick Me Up squeaks in a number 1 on mediabase, lead single for second album later in year

Lauren Alaina scores a top 10

[HeyHeyHey]

Back for some more predictions!

Cody Johnson - His current single "Human" will reach the top 15 on country radio but misses the top 10. In an interesting turn of events, he will release either "Diamond In My Pocket" from his 'A Different Day' album or "Me and My Kind" from his 'Cowboy Like Me' album as his next single and it'll do really well, climbing the chart throughout the summer and fall.

Keith Urban - "Brown Eyes Baby" will reach the top 10 on country radio but doesn't make it much further than that. He's going to release an album in 2023 but it will NOT be titled 'THE SPEED OF NOW, Pt. 2'. It will make me wonder why he included 'Pt. 1' at the end of his 'THE SPEED OF NOW' album from 2020 if he had no intention of putting out a Pt. 2.

Thomas Rhett - 'Country Again (Side B)' will be released in the summer or fall.

Kelsea Ballerini - Her tour with Kenny in the spring will be super successful. She will be featured on a track off Kenny's next album.

Jimmie Allen - Jimmie will be a coach on season 24 of The Voice!

Little Big Town - 2023 will be a quieter year for LBT since they released an album in September and likely won't score a hit on country radio. I predict they'll play a show near me in the next year (if I wish for it to happen it has to come true right?!?).

Scotty McCreery - "It Matters To Her" will reach #1 and his follow-up will still be slowly climbing the chart at the end of 2023.

Nate Smith - He will be one of the breakout artists of 2023. "Whiskey On You" will hit #1 on country radio in the early part of the year and his next single will be even bigger!

[jab820]

Random artist predictions, maybe will add more later...

Carrie Underwood - "Hate My Heart" will be her first #1 since "Southbound" but will once again be a MB only #1, continuing her streak of singles missing BB #1 since "Church Bells" (unless the MB / BB chart merger happens next year... not sure when that is).

Maren Morris - "I Can't Love You Anymore" flops and her team doesn't send another single from "Humble Quest". She is pregnant with kid #2 and releases nothing new in 2023, only further derailing career momentum. (This is my worst nightmare, btw)

Gabby Barrett - Goes on a small headlining tour in 2023 that does quite well. Someone in the country scene calls out Cade for being controlling and stifling her career.

Bailey Zimmerman - "Rock & A Hard Place" hits #1 before March and he rounds out the radio bro threesome of him, Luke Combs, and Morgan Wallen.

Lauren Alaina - Her radio debut is cowritten with HARDY and/or Morgan Wallen and she is asked to do direct support on one of their tours. She begins attaching herself to this crowd and it does well for her new music. The single is received well at radio and becomes her second highest peaking song in Q1 2024.

HARDY - His radio single after "wait in the truck" comes from "The Crow" side of his album and is too rock leaning for radio. It peaks in the 30s.

Jimmie Allen - His star continues to shine bright and his radio single to come climbs much faster than his previous. He becomes a regular contender for Male Artist.

Ingrid Andress - "Feel Like This" peaks in the 20s but is received similarly to "Lady Like". No other singles from Good Person are released, but her headlining tour and Hot AC single attracts attention from a pop artist and she opens for a big name in the fall. 

Kelsea Ballerini - Does an arena tour similar to the "Miss Me More" tour and brings a popular male artist as direct support. 

Kane Brown - Is finally nominated for Entertainer of the Year at the CMAs after a summer of massive shows at major festivals.

[gardyfan]

Dec 29, 2022 17:56:41 GMT -5 jab820 said:

Carrie Underwood - "Hate My Heart" will be her first #1 since "Southbound" but will once again be a MB only #1, continuing her streak of singles missing BB #1 since "Church Bells" (unless the MB / BB chart merger happens next year... not sure when that is).

There is no merge happening. What did happen was Billboard now uses Mediabase data to rank audience. Started late November or early December.

[.indulgecountry]

Kelsea Ballerini "If You Go Down (I'm Goin' Down Too)" will be a big hit for her and take her back to #1 after the misstep of the lead single. She'll release either "Muscle Memory," "The Little Things," or "I Can't Help Myself" in the fall and by the end of 2023 will be off to a good start with another future smash.

Miranda Lambert She'll release "Carousel" and it'll be another "Tin Man" moment for her where it gets all the critical acclaim and industry attention, even if it isn't a major hit on radio. I could see it performing similarly to that one or maybe inching just higher into the top 20.

Carrie Underwood "Hate My Heart" will bring her back to #1 on BB and be her biggest solo hit since pre-Cry Pretty era. "Burn" will be third and be off to a stellar start by the end of the year.

Maren Morris The label sticks with "I Can't Love You Anymore" because Maren takes her time between eras so I know they don't have a 'plan B' to immediately revive her momentum. The best they can do is maybe pull some strings to get her another duet hit with somebody to release later in 2023. Otherwise, I see her having a quiet year and ICLYA maybe limps into the 30s on the chart at best, similar to "To Hell & Back." Bold prediction, but I think Maren's country radio career may never recover and I could see her going the way of Kacey Musgraves, which I'm not sure she minds at this point given her outspoken nature by taking on the Aldeans publicly.

Ingrid Andress Rooting for "Feel Like This" to surprise and be a smash but I'll predict a modest top 20 or 30 peak is more likely, sadly.

Gabby Barrett Gets the #1 on MB and BB in February for "Pick Me Up" and then comes back with a splash lead single a few month later that has a much faster start at radio than any of her singles thus far due to the hype of new music and is at least another top 10 hit for her by Q3.

Lauren Alaina Kicks off her comeback on the new label with a bang and gets her first solo top 20 hit by the end of the year since "Road Less Traveled" (and only 2nd overall -- what a depressing statistic, lol).

Megan Moroney Scores a #1 smash with "Tennessee Orange" is set up nicely for a good start for a follow-up single to be at least top 30 by the end of 2023. Shows signs of being one of the next 'it girls' at the format.

Tenille Arts "Jealous of Myself" doesn't make the top 40 on country radio and is her swan song for the United States. I think she'll continue to have middling chart success in Canada for awhile though.

Priscilla Block The Justin Moore duet probably limps to a weak #1 due to the fact that everything he releases somehow always gets to #1 despite it taking 67 weeks (or what feels like it). She releases a new solo single to radio late in the year, but the reception is lukewarm.

Lainey Wilson Lands #1 hits with "Heart Like a Truck" and "Wait in the Truck," then follows up with the 2nd single from Bell Bottom Country (money on "Hold My Halo" or "Smell Like Smoke") and it gives Lainey a third #1 hit in 2023, making it the best chart year for a woman in... idek how long it's been since a woman got credit on 3 #1s in a year, lol.

Carly Pearce "What He Didn't Do" secures the #1 and is easily her biggest solo hit to date, setting her up nicely for the launch of CP4. The lead single is at least top 20 by the end of 2023 and the album drops in Q3.

---

Blake Shelton "No Body" limps into the top 20, but doesn't last much longer. His radio career continues to decline. No new album, but he gets another minor top 20 hit in 2023.

Kane Brown "Thank God" is another big #1 hit for him and then he releases "Whiskey Sour" to make my heart happy and it slays its way to the top of the charts next. #pipedream

Jimmie Allen Releases another single from Tulip Drive in February and it's just fluffy and safe enough that it's top 20 by the end of 2023, despite it being another low-impact hit.

Morgan Wallen "Thought You Should Know" is another #1 smash (shocker). He puts out "One Day at a Time" next and it hits #1 (more shock). He drops MW3 this summer and it takes over the charts the way his 2nd album did. He has at least 1 more country airplay #1 hit in 2023, if not 2 (for a total of 3 or 4).

Joe Nichols "Good Day for Living" doesn't quite make top 20, but it comes close. His next single doesn't do anything and he goes back to being a flop, lol.

Randy Houser "Note to Self" doesn't quite make top 20, but it comes close. His next single doesn't do anything and he goes back to being a flop, lol. [2]

Lee Brice New lead single in Q2 and it does well and hits #1 by the end of 2023.

Old Dominion Has a big comeback era this year and lands two #1 hits at country radio.

[zdm1998]

The more I think about it the more I am wondering if Maren's radio career will ever be the same. I felt her momentum building so much through the GIRL era all the way through "The Bones," but everything after that just feels like a complete 180. I think Carly/Lainey/Megan being right there for radio to play rather than her also hurt her as well. I am really curious to see how her next era pans out. I feel like that's what it's all going to come down to.

[.indulgecountry]

Dec 30, 2022 12:26:33 GMT -5 zdm1998 said:

The more I think about it the more I am wondering if Maren's radio career will ever be the same. I felt her momentum building so much through the GIRL era all the way through "The Bones," but everything after that just feels like a complete 180. I think Carly/Lainey/Megan being right there for radio to play rather than her also hurt her as well. I am really curious to see how her next era pans out. I feel like that's what it's all going to come down to.

If they don't go all out with the perfect lead single and have it attached to an album that's a total return to form (instead of whatever artistical naptime HQ was), she's finished. There's a chance they'll lay all their cards out there to make it happen, but it likely won't be until 2024, and I feel like I could just as easily see Maren not caring if she even bounces back like that and instead slides into a Kacey Musgraves sort of niche lane.

[jab820]

Dec 30, 2022 12:26:33 GMT -5 zdm1998 said:

The more I think about it the more I am wondering if Maren's radio career will ever be the same. I felt her momentum building so much through the GIRL era all the way through "The Bones," but everything after that just feels like a complete 180. I think Carly/Lainey/Megan being right there for radio to play rather than her also hurt her as well. I am really curious to see how her next era pans out. I feel like that's what it's all going to come down to.

There is an element where I wonder what kind of success she is exactly hoping for. During the Humble Quest tour I felt she was very content playing the large-ish outdoor amphitheaters and whatnot, making me think that was the kind of success she was looking at. But her Bridgestone Arena show seemed to really be a major moment for her that she was extremely happy about, which makes me wonder if she has her sights set on being a regular arena artist with a catalog of hits. (I would say most artists originally want this, but I know that after beginning a family many artists [women, usually, sigh] feel the need to cut back a bit).  

The Humble Quest era was not tailored to radio and she's all but said that. I think it was the right move for her artistically. The fued with the Aldeans seemed to be a much bigger deal when it happened than it is now; I'm not sure how much impact that has had on the charts. "Circles" barely squeaked a top 10 as a lead single before any of that happened. I do not believe she actively wants to go the Kacey route, but I think she will lean into it if she's forced that direction.

MM4 will all but tell what happens with her. 

Edit: this was supposed to be a response to .indulgecountry . Whoops!

[schnetzka]

Regardless of success for future eras, I hope Maren does not go the Kellie Pickler no more music route she seems to be on. I know releasing music without the public's support is difficult but I just want Maren to keep singing.

[jessica03181990]

Dec 30, 2022 1:38:50 GMT -5 .indulgecountry said:

Kelsea Ballerini "If You Go Down (I'm Goin' Down Too)" will be a big hit for her and take her back to #1 after the misstep of the lead single. She'll release either "Muscle Memory," "The Little Things," or "I Can't Help Myself" in the fall and by the end of 2023 will be off to a good start with another future smash.

Miranda Lambert She'll release "Carousel" and it'll be another "Tin Man" moment for her where it gets all the critical acclaim and industry attention, even if it isn't a major hit on radio. I could see it performing similarly to that one or maybe inching just higher into the top 20.

Carrie Underwood "Hate My Heart" will bring her back to #1 on BB and be her biggest solo hit since pre-Cry Pretty era. "Burn" will be third and be off to a stellar start by the end of the year.

Maren Morris The label sticks with "I Can't Love You Anymore" because Maren takes her time between eras so I know they don't have a 'plan B' to immediately revive her momentum. The best they can do is maybe pull some strings to get her another duet hit with somebody to release later in 2023. Otherwise, I see her having a quiet year and ICLYA maybe limps into the 30s on the chart at best, similar to "To Hell & Back." Bold prediction, but I think Maren's country radio career may never recover and I could see her going the way of Kacey Musgraves, which I'm not sure she minds at this point given her outspoken nature by taking on the Aldeans publicly.

Ingrid Andress Rooting for "Feel Like This" to surprise and be a smash but I'll predict a modest top 20 or 30 peak is more likely, sadly.

Gabby Barrett Gets the #1 on MB and BB in February for "Pick Me Up" and then comes back with a splash lead single a few month later that has a much faster start at radio than any of her singles thus far due to the hype of new music and is at least another top 10 hit for her by Q3.

Lauren Alaina Kicks off her comeback on the new label with a bang and gets her first solo top 20 hit by the end of the year since "Road Less Traveled" (and only 2nd overall -- what a depressing statistic, lol).

Megan Moroney Scores a #1 smash with "Tennessee Orange" is set up nicely for a good start for a follow-up single to be at least top 30 by the end of 2023. Shows signs of being one of the next 'it girls' at the format.

Tenille Arts "Jealous of Myself" doesn't make the top 40 on country radio and is her swan song for the United States. I think she'll continue to have middling chart success in Canada for awhile though.

Priscilla Block The Justin Moore duet probably limps to a weak #1 due to the fact that everything he releases somehow always gets to #1 despite it taking 67 weeks (or what feels like it). She releases a new solo single to radio late in the year, but the reception is lukewarm.

Lainey Wilson Lands #1 hits with "Heart Like a Truck" and "Wait in the Truck," then follows up with the 2nd single from Bell Bottom Country (money on "Hold My Halo" or "Smell Like Smoke") and it gives Lainey a third #1 hit in 2023, making it the best chart year for a woman in... idek how long it's been since a woman got credit on 3 #1s in a year, lol.

Carly Pearce "What He Didn't Do" secures the #1 and is easily her biggest solo hit to date, setting her up nicely for the launch of CP4. The lead single is at least top 20 by the end of 2023 and the album drops in Q3.

---

Blake Shelton "No Body" limps into the top 20, but doesn't last much longer. His radio career continues to decline. No new album, but he gets another minor top 20 hit in 2023.

Kane Brown "Thank God" is another big #1 hit for him and then he releases "Whiskey Sour" to make my heart happy and it slays its way to the top of the charts next. #pipedream

Jimmie Allen Releases another single from Tulip Drive in February and it's just fluffy and safe enough that it's top 20 by the end of 2023, despite it being another low-impact hit.

Morgan Wallen "Thought You Should Know" is another #1 smash (shocker). He puts out "One Day at a Time" next and it hits #1 (more shock). He drops MW3 this summer and it takes over the charts the way his 2nd album did. He has at least 1 more country airplay #1 hit in 2023, if not 2 (for a total of 3 or 4).

Joe Nichols "Good Day for Living" doesn't quite make top 20, but it comes close. His next single doesn't do anything and he goes back to being a flop, lol.

Randy Houser "Note to Self" doesn't quite make top 20, but it comes close. His next single doesn't do anything and he goes back to being a flop, lol. [2]

Lee Brice New lead single in Q2 and it does well and hits #1 by the end of 2023.

Old Dominion Has a big comeback era this year and lands two #1 hits at country radio.

I really don’t see how Gabby goes number 1 unless her label pushes for her to pass Kane’s single somehow. I don’t think her single will last until February

I do agree that Lauren will get a moderate hit

And yes, I also agree that Burn will be third but I don’t think HMH will go past top 5

[Juan Carlos]

Dec 31, 2022 12:56:42 GMT -5 jessica03181990 said:

I really don’t see how Gabby goes number 1 unless her label pushes for her to pass Kane’s single somehow. I don’t think her single will last until February.

And I still can't believe it's you again. :facepalm: