2023 Predictors Cup - This week: 4X POINTS FINAL WEEK

[rainie]

1. im almost tempted to say yes because of the massive points surge i'd get if i'm the only person to get it right but i frankly just don't see that happening at all so i'll say no
2. yes but it won't be eyes closed, i feel like there's a good chance he has another perfect or thinking out loud on reserve
3. 10

[neel]

1. Yes (I’m betting his album that drops tomorrow will place at least one Top 10 debut the week of 5/20).
2. Yes
3. 10+ weeks, “Last Night” seems to be another digital-digit leader that keeps going back up to #1, due to getting constantly pushed down. (hope one does it consecutively since we haven’t had one since “The Box”). I’ll bet this’ll also be 2023’s “Blinding Lights/“As it Was”.

[Deleted]

1. No
2. Yes
3. 9

[Baby Yoda Hot100Fan]

1. No
2. Yes
3. 9

[enwhy]

This week's question (Deadline Thu, May 11)

Q1: 2023 Year End Predictions
Each year, Billboard compiles a Top 100 Year-End chart based on how songs perform on the Hot 100 throughout the year. This year’s battle is particularly close, as there are 3 or 4 active songs which could plausibly end up at #1.
For those who are less familiar, the methodology has a few quirks. The annual chart period starts and ends around mid-November, which often leads to many songs from the prior year doing well. Likewise, songs which debut in spring and summer are at a significant disadvantage, since they have less time to compile points. There are some other oddities, like how songs that chart in the Hot 100 Top 10 earn significantly more weekly points. Overall though, it’s a pretty good measure of Hot 100 success.

For your reference, I’ve included an averaged Year-To-Date point total from a couple of top predictors (lip & CE). I’ve included any song in the top 10, or with a solid chance of ending up there:
#. Total Pts (Last Week Pts) - Song Name
1. 5407 (+259) - Kill Bill
2. 5374 (+152) - Anti-Hero
3. 4985 (+236) - Flowers
4. 4542 (+167) - Die For You
5. 4382 (+85) - Unholy
6. 4269 (+193) - Creepin'
7. 3937 (+74) - Rich Flex
8. 3689 (+99) - I'm Good
9. 3411 (+112) - As It Was
10. 3347 (+291) - Last Night
11. 3065 (+124) - You Proof
12. 2976 (+92) - Under The Influence
15. 2774 (+127) - Rock & A Hard Place
17. 2706 (+195) - Calm Down
21. 2311 (+160) - Boy's A Liar
26. 2053 (+103) - Thought You Should Know
35. 1794 (+85) - Snooze
39. 1662 (+131) - Sure Thing
56. 1069 (+143) - Favorite Song
73. 886 (+217) - Ella Baila Sola

Predict the TOP 5 songs on Billboard’s 2023 Year-End Chart, in order*
*10 points per correct song, 50 points per correct placement

SPOILER: Click to show

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[Groovy]

1. Kill Bill
2. Flowers
3. Anti-Hero
4. Last Night
5. Die For You

[rnb]

1. kill bill
2. flowers
3. anti-hero
4. last night
5. creepin

[jasper0102]

1. Last Night, boy this is hard to choose...
2. Kill Bill
3. Flowers
4. Anti-Hero
5. Creepin, either this or Ella Baila Sola are gonna be the biggest non #1s this year

[neel]

1. Kill Bill
2. Last Night
3. Flowers
4. Song of the Summer probably
5. Anti-Hero

[Deleted]

This’ll be hard. Last year As It Was was released almost a year ago and it ended up being the #2 on the year end, so anything could happen

[RoseColoredGirl]

1. Kill Bill
2. Flowers
3. Anti-Hero
4. Last Night
5. Creepin'

[1^∞]

1)
1. Kill Bill
2. Flowers
3. Anti-Hero
4. Last Night
5. Die for You

[joshtheking]

1. Kill Bill
2. Flowers
3. Last Night
4. Anti-Hero
5. Die For You

[jasper0102]

May 6, 2023 10:41:24 GMT -5 neel said:

4. Song of the Summer probably

That's either gonna be Last Night or Ella Baila Sola (or maybe it's gonna be something random like Cupid lmao)

[renfield75]

1. Kill Bill
2. Flowers
3. Last Night
4. Anti-Hero
5. Die For You

[atg]

1. Kill Bill
2. Last Night
3. Flowers
4. Anti Hero
5. Die For You

[shadowthehedgehogfan]

1. Kill Bill
2. Flowers
3. Anti Hero
4. Last Night
5. Die For You (Music video may push this over Lat Night

[khan]

1. Kill Bill
2. Flowers
3. Last Night
4. Anti-Hero
5. Die for You

I kinda hope I'm wrong though, I'd love for a surprise summer smash.

[kindofbiased]

1. Kill Bill
2. Last Night
3. Flowers
4. Anti-Hero
5. Creepin'

[tekkenguy]

I'm going to be bold and say Kill Bill won't get year end #1 or even #2. Flowers will have way more longevity at radio and Last Night will be a multi-format beast sooner than later.

1. Last Night
2. Flowers
3. Kill Bill
4. (song we don't know about yet)
5. Anti-Hero

[𝓲𝓽'𝓼.𝓰𝓿]

1. Kill Bill - SZA
2. Last Night - Morgan Wallen
3. Flowers - Miley Cyrus
4. Anti-Hero - Taylor Swift
5. it's a stretch but...Creepin' - Metro Boomin, The Weeknd, 21 Savage

[kcdawg13]

1. Kill Bill
2. Flowers
3. Last Night
4. Anti-Hero
5. Creepin'

[neogale]

01. Flowers
02. Last Night
03. Kill Bill
04. (Song of the Summer)
05. Anti-Hero

Sadly, I see Last Night surpassing Kill Bill but losing to Flowers as it started charting a few weeks later than Miley's song

[fengyu]

1. Kill Bill
2. Last Night
3. Flowers
4. Anti-Hero
5. Ella Baila Sola

[mms82]

1. Last Night
2. Kill Bill
3. Flowers
4. Anti-Hero
5. Die For You

[85la]

1. Kill Bill
2. Flowers
3. Last Night
4. Anti-Hero
5. Die For You

[rainie]

1. last night (i rly hope i'm not right tho)
2. kill bill
3. flowers
4. anti hero
5. ella baila sola

[enwhy]

FYI for anyone who's guessing a "new song"...you'll get half points for it if correct (so 5pts if there's a new song, 25pts for correct placement), since obviously it's a less specific prediction.

My predictions:
1. Kill Bill - Taking forever to fall on streaming and still has a ton of radio play. I think SZA will barely squeak this one out.
2. Last Night - This song is somehow positing consistent streaming gains 3 months in? TBH this has a decent shot at winning out, but as a certified Wallen hater I'm hoping non country radio formats start dropping this soon.
3. Flowers - Radio is obsessed with this. It's still the #1 and probably will be for another couple months. Should give it the edge over Anti-Hero
4. Anti-Hero - Hanging around the top 10 for way longer than I thought. The chorus burned on me after like 10 streams but I guess other people don't mind it!
5. New Song - Kind of a cop out but there's nothing charting right now that has a huge run in it. Calm Down, Sure Thing, Die For You, and Creepin are all nearing the end of their radio run, and none are pulling especially impressive streams. Ella Baila Sola has peaked on streaming and has absolutely no radio to soften its fall. So I figure something new has to come along...we're nearing 12 months since As It Was, so it's not that far-fetched.

[ephelia]

Q1: 2023 Year End Predictions

1. Kill Bill
2. Flowers
3. Last Night
4. Anti-Hero
5. Creepin'

[Deleted]

1. Kill Bill
2. Flowers
3. Last Night
4. Anti-Hero
5. Creepin’