ephelia
Charting
Joined: February 2022
Posts: 313
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Post by ephelia on Mar 1, 2023 16:40:21 GMT -5
Q1: Yee Haw #1
Yes
Q2: 36 songs
Yes
Q3: Superstar Pride
a) Yes
b) No
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enwhy
Gold Member
Joined: January 2021
Posts: 642 
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Post by enwhy on Mar 1, 2023 22:51:48 GMT -5
1. No - Don't think he'll have the streaming on any one track to pull this off. Would be interesting to be proved wrong, since it's been forever since a non-crossover country act hit #1. Granted, wish it didn't have to be Wallen.
2. Yes - He might just chart 36 songs. Then again, with so many songs he's definitely going to start losing some listeners toward the back half.
3a. No - It might just peak top 20 this week. But it seems to have hit a ceiling on streaming, and it's not going to do anything on radio anytime soon. Plus it kinda sucks?
3b. No - This might just wind up being a one "hit" wonder situation. New rappers haven't had much success of late.
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enwhy
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Posts: 642
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Post by enwhy on Mar 1, 2023 22:59:15 GMT -5
Tagging anyone who hasn't submitted yet...25 hours to go! |
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𝓲𝓽'𝓼.𝓰𝓿
Diamond Member
Unsteady Weirdo
𝓪 𝓽𝓸𝓻𝓽𝓾𝓻𝓮𝓭 𝓹𝓸𝓮𝓽
Joined: December 2016
Posts: 10,808
My Charts
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Post by 𝓲𝓽'𝓼.𝓰𝓿 on Mar 2, 2023 4:02:56 GMT -5
1. I'll say Yes, but only for a week
2. Insanity for all 36 songs to chart at the same time, but there's a possibility, so Yes
3a. No
3b. Yes
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Deleted
Joined: January 1970
Posts: 0
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Post by Deleted on Mar 2, 2023 7:49:28 GMT -5
1. Yes
2. Yes
3. No, Yes
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enwhy
Gold Member
Joined: January 2021
Posts: 642
Pronouns: he/him
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Post by enwhy on Mar 5, 2023 12:25:55 GMT -5
This week's questions (Deadline Thurs, March 9)The big story of next week will be Miley’s new album “Endless Summer Vacation.” Coming off her most critically-acclaimed album in 2020, and more recently, her biggest-ever Hot 100 hit, there are a lot of questions about how this album will perform. Q1: Miley vs WallenUsually these questions focus on the Hot 100, but with an interesting battle coming up on the Billboard 200, I thought it would be worth a question. Miley is by no means guaranteed a #1 next week, as Morgan Wallen’s 36-song behemoth of an album will still be racking up numbers in its 2nd week. “One Thing At A Time” is projected to open its 1st week with 400k+ units. For context, his last album did 265k in its 1st week, and 159k in its 2nd week (a 40% decrease). For Miley’s part, “Plastic Hearts” debuted with 60k units in its 1st week - although due to production issues, physical copies were not available on release day. Who will be #1 on the Billboard 200 next week? (3/25 chart)Q2: Miley vs Wallen pt 2Now we’ll focus on a different metric - streams! According to predictors, “Flowers” and “Last Night” had relatively similar streaming last week: Miley with about 25M, and Wallen with 29M. Wallen will see a significant boost this week - probably peaking somewhere over 40M. How will each of their big singles be impacted by the album drops, and which will perform better? Which song will total more streams: “Last Night” [3/18 chart] or “Flowers” [3/25 chart]?Q3: Top 20 ImpactWe are now in the album bomb era - even B-list artists seem to be able to consistently debut a few songs on the lower rungs of the chart. But making an impact on the Top 20 is much harder. Just look at last year - Jack Harlow (1), Lizzo (1), DJ Khaled (1), Post Malone (2) - all big names in music, failed to land more than 1-2 songs in the Top 20. Miley Cyrus is in an interesting position, as she hasn’t had a ton of chart success until “Flowers” became a multi-week #1 smash hit. Can she follow it up with a commercially-strong album? How many songs off of Miley’s “Endless Summer Vacation” will be in the Top 20 next week? (3/25 chart)Q4: TWICEKpop girl group TWICE is releasing their new EP “Ready To Be” next week. It will feature 2 English songs: “Moonlight Sunrise” (Released in Jan, Peaked #84), and “Set Me Free.” The latter is a new single, and it sounds like they’re going all-in on promo for it - they’re doing a Late Night performance and are lighting up the Empire State Building in the group’s colors. TWICE has historically not been a presence on the US Hot 100, but in recent years, they’ve charted twice with English-language tracks. Will TWICE chart at least 1 song from “Ready To Be” on the Hot 100 next week? (3/25 chart)
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rnb
2x Platinum Member
Joined: December 2022
Posts: 2,674
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Post by rnb on Mar 5, 2023 12:34:40 GMT -5
1. miley
2. flowers
3. 3
4. yes
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1^∞
Charting
Joined: April 2018
Posts: 297
Pronouns: it/she
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Post by 1^∞ on Mar 5, 2023 16:12:36 GMT -5
1. Morgan Miley
The US hates good music hhh idk I think Miley might pull through actually she's massive
2. Flowers
3. 2
I hope Flowers isn't just a fluke for her I think it can go any way, she could have just flowers or it could be an instant classic with 5+ songs in the top 20 but given her past albums I'll lean towards there being 2 songs in the t20
4. Yes
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Music Fan
5x Platinum Member
Imma Be Boom Boom Pow because I Gotta Feelin' I'm Alive
Joined: April 2008
Posts: 5,424
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Post by Music Fan on Mar 5, 2023 17:23:06 GMT -5
1. Morgan
2. Flowers
3. 3
4. Yes
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mms82
Platinum Member
...
Joined: January 2019
Posts: 1,282
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Post by mms82 on Mar 5, 2023 17:25:04 GMT -5
1: Morgan
2: Morgan
3: 2 songs
4: no
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khan
Platinum Member
Joined: July 2020
Posts: 1,103
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Post by khan on Mar 5, 2023 17:26:57 GMT -5
1. Morgan Wallen - After the last two years, I am not going to doubt Wallen's performance on the albums chart.
2. Flowers - That said, Wallen's singles run is much more competitive with other normal pop stars. Flowers has been destroying streaming basically all year, and I see no reason it wouldn't stop with the album.
3. 6 - This feels like such a crapshoot because I have no idea how much Wallen will still be blocking the top 20 at the time lol.
4. Yes - It's pretty easy for K-pop stars with a fanbase to at least chart. I mean every single BTS member has done it solo at this point.
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kindofbiased
Platinum Member
Rough surf on the coast
Joined: May 2017
Posts: 1,759 
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Post by kindofbiased on Mar 5, 2023 17:31:36 GMT -5
1. It's gonna be super close but Miley
2. Flowers, this one I'm more confident on
3. 2, I feel like the bulk of the album will debut a lot lower but whatever song she pushes after Flowers will get a nice top 20 debut
4. Yes
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renfield75
Platinum Member
Joined: February 2009
Posts: 1,643
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Post by renfield75 on Mar 5, 2023 18:56:36 GMT -5
1. Morgan...if he falls by 50% he'll still triple what her last album opened with. This album should be bigger for Miley but I don't see her dethroning Morgan
2. Flowers
3. 2, Flowers obviously and maybe one other song
4. Yes
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jasper0102
2x Platinum Member
I CAN GET BY THE DAYS JUST FINE BUT THE NIGHTS
Joined: May 2022
Posts: 2,845
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Post by jasper0102 on Mar 5, 2023 20:25:31 GMT -5
1. Morgan
2. Last Night
3. 2
4. Yes
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rainie
8x Platinum Member
the future disappears into memory
Joined: February 2016
Posts: 8,783
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Post by rainie on Mar 6, 2023 16:40:05 GMT -5
1. my gut says morgan but it'll be close
2. last night
3. 2 (with flowers obv being one)
4. yeah
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annoymous1
7x Platinum Member
Joined: December 2017
Posts: 7,184
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Post by annoymous1 on Mar 6, 2023 18:20:18 GMT -5
1. Morgan Wallen
2. Last Night
3. 2
4. Yes
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Post by Baby Yoda Hot100Fan on Mar 6, 2023 23:00:48 GMT -5
1. Morgan Wallen
2. Last Night
3. 2
4. Yes
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fengyu
Charting
Joined: August 2020
Posts: 290
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Post by fengyu on Mar 7, 2023 2:41:39 GMT -5
Q1: Miley
Q2: Last Night
Q3: 3
Q4: Yes
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85la
3x Platinum Member
Joined: July 2007
Posts: 3,916
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Post by 85la on Mar 7, 2023 16:57:41 GMT -5
1. Morgan
2. Last Night
3. 2
4. Yes
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enwhy
Gold Member
Joined: January 2021
Posts: 642
Pronouns: he/him
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Post by enwhy on Mar 8, 2023 10:11:22 GMT -5
1. Morgan Wallen - He's projected to do 500k now. Even if he drops down into the 200-300 range, I just don't see how Miley can come close with a 12 song album.
2. Last Night - I think Flowers has burned on the public too much by now. It'll see a big day 1 boost (maybe even bigger than Last Night!), but drop off much more quickly,
3. 2 - Flowers and her follow-up single.
4. Yes - I'm on the fence, because I've noticed that the 2nd singles off of k-pop EPs tend to be not as impactful. But with the heavy promo, as well as Wallen's album potentially knocking 10 songs into recurrency and likely dropping mostly off on week 2, I think it'll open up some space toward the bottom.
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joshtheking
Platinum Member
Joined: April 2020
Posts: 1,553
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Post by joshtheking on Mar 8, 2023 14:58:37 GMT -5
1. Morgan
2. Last Night
3. 2
4. Yes (hopefully!)
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atg
3x Platinum Member
Joined: April 2016
Posts: 3,004
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Post by atg on Mar 8, 2023 17:42:05 GMT -5
1. Morgan
2. Last Night
3. 2, I think she can pull off more if one of the bigger streaming platforms is on her side and just rides off that
4. Yes
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Deleted
Joined: January 1970
Posts: 0
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Post by Deleted on Mar 8, 2023 17:55:40 GMT -5
1. Morgan
2. Last Night
3. 3
4. Yes
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Au$tin
Diamond Member
Pop Culture Guru
Grrrrrrrrrr. Fuckity fuck why don't you watch my film before you judge it? FURY.
Joined: August 2008
Posts: 54,623
My Charts
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Post by Au$tin on Mar 8, 2023 18:55:51 GMT -5
1. Morgan
2. Last Night
3. 2 (Flowers & River)
4. Yes
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Post by Rose "Payola" Nylund on Mar 8, 2023 23:31:04 GMT -5
Q1: Miley vs Wallen
Who will be #1 on the Billboard 200 next week? (3/25 chart)
Morgan
Q2: Miley vs Wallen pt 2 Which song will total more streams: “Last Night” [3/18 chart] or “Flowers” [3/25 chart]?
"Flowers"
Q3: Top 20 Impact How many songs off of Miley’s “Endless Summer Vacation” will be in the Top 20 next week? (3/25 chart)
2 (including "Flowers")
Q4: TWICE Will TWICE chart at least 1 song from “Ready To Be” on the Hot 100 next week? (3/25 chart)
Yes
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ephelia
Charting
Joined: February 2022
Posts: 313
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Post by ephelia on Mar 9, 2023 23:33:31 GMT -5
Q1: Miley vs Wallen
Morgan
Q2: Miley vs Wallen pt 2
Last Night
Q3: Top 20 Impact
3
Q4: TWICE
No
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kindofbiased
Platinum Member
Rough surf on the coast
Joined: May 2017
Posts: 1,759
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Post by kindofbiased on Mar 11, 2023 14:11:58 GMT -5
1. It's gonna be super close but Miley so this was a bad call lmfao |
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1^∞
Charting
Joined: April 2018
Posts: 297
Pronouns: it/she
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Post by 1^∞ on Mar 11, 2023 23:17:44 GMT -5
1. It's gonna be super close but Miley so this was a bad call lmfao I thought it was gonna be Morgan cause of his lead but I put Miley cause if she went #1 and I rooted for Morgan I would die |
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enwhy
Gold Member
Joined: January 2021
Posts: 642
Pronouns: he/him
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Post by enwhy on Mar 12, 2023 7:46:25 GMT -5
This week's questions (Deadline Thursday, March 16)Let's play some Predict The Peaks! For each song, guess what its peak position will be by Dec 30th. 25 points go to the closest predictors(s) - or 50 if you guess it exactly! 1: "Kill Bill" - SZA (#2 Peak so far)Peaks from each of the last 4 weeks on the chart (goes older -> newer): - 2 - 2 - 2 - 3 What position will "Kill Bill" peak at? (By 12/30 chart)2: "Boy's a Liar" - PinkPantheress & Ice Spice (#3 Peak so far)Last 4 weeks: - 14 - 4 - 3 - 4 What position will "Boy's a Liar" peak at? (By 12/30 chart)3: "Calm Down" - Rema & Selena Gomez (#15 Peak so far)Last 4 weeks: - 27 - 25 - 19 - 15What position will "Calm Down" peak at? (By 12/30 chart)4: "Players" - Coi Leray (#16 Peak so far)Last 4 weeks: - 28 - 22 - 17 - 16 What position will "Players" peak at? (By 12/30 chart)5: "Escapism" - RAYE & 070 Shake (#22 Peak so far)Last 4 weeks: - 24 - 26 - 23 - 22What position will "Escapism" peak at? (By 12/30 chart)6: "Sure Thing" - Miguel (#28 Peak so far)Last 4 weeks: - 30 - 31 - 28 - 28What position will "Sure Thing" peak at? (By 12/30 chart)
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rnb
2x Platinum Member
Joined: December 2022
Posts: 2,674
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Post by rnb on Mar 12, 2023 8:23:10 GMT -5
1. #1 (please)
2. #2
3. #9
4. #6
5. #15
6. #10
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