Billboard Hot 100: 03/18/2023

[thegreatdivine]

Mar 3, 2023 7:23:01 GMT -5 rideordie said:

So we really rooting for that racist man…. Kkk

He has the most dominant album of the decade so far (on pace to be one of the most dominant albums of all time). It doesn't really matter if any of us here root for him or not. His music will do whatever damage it'll do regardless. We should all know that much by now.

[rainygirl]

While yes Morgan’s album will crush I still don’t think he’s got enough juice to get a Hot 100 number 1 with Last Night unless he’s got a trick up his sleeve (which I doubt ). He will get close though

[Future Captain]

I'm thinking 3-4 million streams first day in Spotify for the top track. Maybe 5 million? Lower than Drake/Taylor but higher than pretty much everyone else. My prediction for now is 5-6 in the top 10.

[rainygirl]

Mar 3, 2023 13:13:13 GMT -5 Future Captain said:

I'm thinking 3-4 million streams first day in Spotify for the top track. Maybe 5 million? Lower than Drake/Taylor but higher than pretty much everyone else

tomorrow should be fun one way or another

[After Minutes]

I just noticed that Logic is about to have a comeback thanks to Seth MacFarlane doing a Frank Sinatra impression

[thegreatdivine]

I'm more interested in seeing Morgan break the record for most simultaneous Hot 100 entries (27) than seeing him get a #1 hit tbh. It's surprising Drake has held that record for as long as he has, considering how lengthy most mainstream albums are these days and the rise of the release-a-full-length-album-as-a-deluxe-version thing that's been happening since the start of this decade.

I hope Morgan somehow manages to debut with 500k+ units. It'd be nice to see someone other than Taylor, Adele or Drake hit that mark.

[rainygirl]

Mar 3, 2023 13:18:22 GMT -5 thegreatdivine said:

I'm more interested in seeing Morgan break the record for most simultaneous Hot 100 entries (27) than seeing him get a #1 hit tbh. It's surprising Drake has held that record for as long as he has, considering how lengthy most mainstream albums are these days and the rise of the release-a-full-length-album-as-a-deluxe-version thing that's been happening since the start of this decade.

I hope Morgan somehow manages to debut with 500k+ units. It'd be nice to see someone other than Taylor, Adele or Drake hit that mark.

it doesn’t seem his team is invested in a Hot 100 number 1 either because I don’t know of any lyric videos or anything like that to push Last Night

[mms82]

Mar 3, 2023 12:45:16 GMT -5 Music Fan said:

Morgan currently with 28 songs on AM Top 100 (including some from prior albums) and 30 songs on iTunes Top 100 (including somes from prior albums). Could we also maybe see one or two songs return, or too much of a longshot?

Whiskey Glasses going top 50 and breaking off the recurrent charts again 5 years later would be amazing lol

[85la]

Mar 3, 2023 13:18:22 GMT -5 thegreatdivine said:

I'm more interested in seeing Morgan break the record for most simultaneous Hot 100 entries (27) than seeing him get a #1 hit tbh. It's surprising Drake has held that record for as long as he has, considering how lengthy most mainstream albums are these days and the rise of the release-a-full-length-album-as-a-deluxe-version thing that's been happening since the start of this decade.

I hope Morgan somehow manages to debut with 500k+ units. It'd be nice to see someone other than Taylor, Adele or Drake hit that mark.

Yes but it would be nice to see someone other than him do it.

[Future Captain]

Mar 3, 2023 13:18:22 GMT -5 thegreatdivine said:

I'm more interested in seeing Morgan break the record for most simultaneous Hot 100 entries (27) than seeing him get a #1 hit tbh. It's surprising Drake has held that record for as long as he has, considering how lengthy most mainstream albums are these days and the rise of the release-a-full-length-album-as-a-deluxe-version thing that's been happening since the start of this decade.

I hope Morgan somehow manages to debut with 500k+ units. It'd be nice to see someone other than Taylor, Adele or Drake hit that mark.

For the simultaneous entry record, Taylor is the only one that could have broken it until maybe Morgan this week, but the only release that she had that have more than 27 tracks is Red (TV) with 30 tracks, 2 of which are alternate versions of another track in the album, and 2 barely missed the Hot 100 during the album bomb week leaving her one entry short of tying the record.

I think 500k+ is pretty much guaranteed. The streaming units are gonna be massive, and unlike with Her Loss and SOS that doesn't have physicals, One Thing At A Time is (probably) gonna have huge (Maybe close to Harry's House?) physical sales.

[thegreatdivine]

rainygirl is that really surprising? By my count, he already has 3 top 10 hit singles off the album and might earn anywhere from 3-5 more following the album's release. He has a successful arena tour he's about to embark on and he has enough songs off the album to keep pushing singles for the next 2 years (before he returns with yet another 30-40 track album).

He seems to have found his audience so now it's just about seeing how long he can milk their support and goodwill. I wouldn't care too much for a #1 hit either if I were in his shoes.

[mms82]

Kind of surprised Speak Now TV didn’t come out today being 03/03 and a Friday lol. maybe Morgan bumped her

[rainygirl]

Well said thegreatdivine.. I don’t think he cares and there’s something refreshing about not seeing the desperate tactics to secure a number 1 single

[thegreatdivine]

Mar 3, 2023 13:33:18 GMT -5 85la said:

Mar 3, 2023 13:18:22 GMT -5 thegreatdivine said:

I'm more interested in seeing Morgan break the record for most simultaneous Hot 100 entries (27) than seeing him get a #1 hit tbh. It's surprising Drake has held that record for as long as he has, considering how lengthy most mainstream albums are these days and the rise of the release-a-full-length-album-as-a-deluxe-version thing that's been happening since the start of this decade.

I hope Morgan somehow manages to debut with 500k+ units. It'd be nice to see someone other than Taylor, Adele or Drake hit that mark.

Yes but it would be nice to see someone other than him do it.

Kendrick Lamar, Beyoncè and SZA all returned from their hiatuses and didn't do it. There's a high chance Rihanna doesn't pull it off (whenever she does decide to drop). Frank Ocean has never been a streaming force so I don't see him doing it either (whenever he decides to drop his next album). Travis Scott will very likely have a difficult time doing it. Apart from Drake, Adele, Harry & Taylor, no one else has hit that mark this decade and right now, realistically, with the exception of Morgan, I don't see who else can.

[Gary]

Morgan Wallen's last opening week was 265K

Huge opening weeks like Adele or Drake mayor may not happen


Consistent numbers over a longer period of time like ' Dangerous' may be more likely

[85la]

Mar 3, 2023 13:38:19 GMT -5 mms82 said:

Kind of surprised Speak Now TV didn’t come out today being 03/03 and a Friday lol. maybe Morgan bumped her

What's the significance of this that would have caused her to release today?

[85la]

Mar 3, 2023 13:45:36 GMT -5 thegreatdivine said:

Mar 3, 2023 13:33:18 GMT -5 85la said:

Yes but it would be nice to see someone other than him do it.

Kendrick Lamar, Beyoncè and SZA all returned from their hiatuses and didn't do it. There's a high chance Rihanna doesn't pull it off (whenever she does decide to drop). Frank Ocean has never been a streaming force so I don't see him doing it either (whenever he decides to drop his next album). Travis Scott will very likely have a difficult time doing it. Apart from Drake, Adele, Harry & Taylor, no one else has hit that mark this decade and right now, realistically, with the exception of Morgan, I don't see who else can.

I'm thinking maybe Olivia. Sour opened with 295K!

[mms82]

Mar 3, 2023 14:08:02 GMT -5 85la said:

Mar 3, 2023 13:45:36 GMT -5 thegreatdivine said:

Kendrick Lamar, Beyoncè and SZA all returned from their hiatuses and didn't do it. There's a high chance Rihanna doesn't pull it off (whenever she does decide to drop). Frank Ocean has never been a streaming force so I don't see him doing it either (whenever he decides to drop his next album). Travis Scott will very likely have a difficult time doing it. Apart from Drake, Adele, Harry & Taylor, no one else has hit that mark this decade and right now, realistically, with the exception of Morgan, I don't see who else can.

I'm thinking maybe Olivia. Sour opened with 295K!

A good 4 u / drivers license sized lead single and first week vinyls and I think she’d easily clear it

[mms82]

Mar 3, 2023 13:57:29 GMT -5 85la said:

Mar 3, 2023 13:38:19 GMT -5 mms82 said:

Kind of surprised Speak Now TV didn’t come out today being 03/03 and a Friday lol. maybe Morgan bumped her

What's the significance of this that would have caused her to release today?

It’s her third album haha

[awkwardowl]

Mar 3, 2023 13:57:29 GMT -5 85la said:

Mar 3, 2023 13:38:19 GMT -5 mms82 said:

Kind of surprised Speak Now TV didn’t come out today being 03/03 and a Friday lol. maybe Morgan bumped her

What's the significance of this that would have caused her to release today?

Speak Now is her third album, and today is Friday and the third day of third month in the year she is 33. And since Taylor loves numbers, it seems like a fun assumption.

[👑 Eloquent ™]

Mar 3, 2023 13:57:29 GMT -5 85la said:

Mar 3, 2023 13:38:19 GMT -5 mms82 said:

Kind of surprised Speak Now TV didn’t come out today being 03/03 and a Friday lol. maybe Morgan bumped her

What's the significance of this that would have caused her to release today?

What is said above, plus 3/03/2023 all add up to her lucky number 13.

[Deleted]

Mar 3, 2023 13:45:36 GMT -5 thegreatdivine said:

Mar 3, 2023 13:33:18 GMT -5 85la said:

Yes but it would be nice to see someone other than him do it.

Kendrick Lamar, Beyoncè and SZA all returned from their hiatuses and didn't do it. There's a high chance Rihanna doesn't pull it off (whenever she does decide to drop). Frank Ocean has never been a streaming force so I don't see him doing it either (whenever he decides to drop his next album). Travis Scott will very likely have a difficult time doing it. Apart from Drake, Adele, Harry & Taylor, no one else has hit that mark this decade and right now, realistically, with the exception of Morgan, I don't see who else can.

Why would you expect Rihanna to pull a +500k units opening? Isn't her biggest sales week 240k units?

I think Olivia also has a shot at joining the +500k openings with a well executed rollout. I would have previously said Billie too

[Deleted]

Morgan will probably break that record. Drake could increase it, but otherwise I only see maybe 1989 (Taylor's Version) also doing it.

[Gary]

For this interest in streaming a free concert

[thegreatdivine]

Mar 3, 2023 14:08:02 GMT -5 85la said:

Mar 3, 2023 13:45:36 GMT -5 thegreatdivine said:

Kendrick Lamar, Beyoncè and SZA all returned from their hiatuses and didn't do it. There's a high chance Rihanna doesn't pull it off (whenever she does decide to drop). Frank Ocean has never been a streaming force so I don't see him doing it either (whenever he decides to drop his next album). Travis Scott will very likely have a difficult time doing it. Apart from Drake, Adele, Harry & Taylor, no one else has hit that mark this decade and right now, realistically, with the exception of Morgan, I don't see who else can.

I'm thinking maybe Olivia. Sour opened with 295K!

She'd not only have to replicate the success of her debut album era to get that but she'd need to do almost twice the numbers her debut album did. I don't think she's gained that much of a fanbase in the time since she released her debut album till whenever her next album will drop. I could be wrong but I don't see it happening.

Mar 3, 2023 14:57:48 GMT -5 @stateofgrace said:

Mar 3, 2023 13:45:36 GMT -5 thegreatdivine said:

Kendrick Lamar, Beyoncè and SZA all returned from their hiatuses and didn't do it. There's a high chance Rihanna doesn't pull it off (whenever she does decide to drop). Frank Ocean has never been a streaming force so I don't see him doing it either (whenever he decides to drop his next album). Travis Scott will very likely have a difficult time doing it. Apart from Drake, Adele, Harry & Taylor, no one else has hit that mark this decade and right now, realistically, with the exception of Morgan, I don't see who else can.

Why would you expect Rihanna to pull a +500k units opening? Isn't her biggest sales week 240k units?

I think Olivia also has a shot at joining the +500k openings with a well executed rollout. I would have previously said Billie too

Yeah, I'm just saying. I was just kinda listing off the names of massive mainstream acts who could potentially pull it off. Billie peaked commercially with her debut album era so that won't be happening with her as well.

[rnb]

I feel after sos sza could probably open with 500k on her next album

[mms82]

Mar 3, 2023 16:31:03 GMT -5 rnb said:

I feel after sos sza could probably open with 500k on her next album

Unfortunately, we have no way to predict what the album landscape will be in 2030 when that finally happens :cries:

[Deleted]

Mar 3, 2023 16:26:44 GMT -5 thegreatdivine said:

Mar 3, 2023 14:08:02 GMT -5 85la said:

I'm thinking maybe Olivia. Sour opened with 295K!

She'd not only have to replicate the success of her debut album era to get that but she'd need to do almost twice the numbers her debut album did. I don't think she's gained that much of a fanbase in the time since she released her debut album till whenever her next album will drop. I could be wrong but I don't see it happening.

Mar 3, 2023 14:57:48 GMT -5 @stateofgrace said:

Why would you expect Rihanna to pull a +500k units opening? Isn't her biggest sales week 240k units?

I think Olivia also has a shot at joining the +500k openings with a well executed rollout. I would have previously said Billie too

Yeah, I'm just saying. I was just kinda listing off the names of massive mainstream acts who could potentially pull it off. Billie peaked commercially with her debut album era so that won't be happening with her as well.

Billie is 21 and Olivia is 20. I would never count anyone of that age out 

I'm sure many thought Taylor had peaked commercially with Fearless too when Speak Now was going on 

[thegreatdivine]

Mar 3, 2023 16:47:55 GMT -5 @stateofgrace said:

Mar 3, 2023 16:26:44 GMT -5 thegreatdivine said:

She'd not only have to replicate the success of her debut album era to get that but she'd need to do almost twice the numbers her debut album did. I don't think she's gained that much of a fanbase in the time since she released her debut album till whenever her next album will drop. I could be wrong but I don't see it happening.

Yeah, I'm just saying. I was just kinda listing off the names of massive mainstream acts who could potentially pull it off. Billie peaked commercially with her debut album era so that won't be happening with her as well.

Billie is 21 and Olivia is 20. I would never count anyone of that age out 

I'm sure many thought Taylor had peaked commercially with Fearless too when Speak Now was going on 

Well, that is the exception, not the rule and Fearless/Speak Now were Taylor's second and third albums, not her debut album like Olivia, Billie (and even Lorde). All three of them peaked commercially with their debut albums because that's when the GP's interest for their music was at its fever pitch.

Artists like Taylor, Drake, Adele and Harry were able to grow commercially album after album because there was always room to grow. It never felt like they were at their biggest commercially on their debut albums. That's the difference between them and the Olivias and the Billies of the world.

[andrebra]

Mar 3, 2023 17:00:35 GMT -5 thegreatdivine said:

Mar 3, 2023 16:47:55 GMT -5 @stateofgrace said:

Billie is 21 and Olivia is 20. I would never count anyone of that age out 

I'm sure many thought Taylor had peaked commercially with Fearless too when Speak Now was going on 

Well, that is the exception, not the rule and Fearless/Speak Now were Taylor's second and third albums, not her debut album like Olivia, Billie (and even Lorde). All three of them peaked commercially with their debut albums because that's when the GP's interest for their music was at its fever pitch.

Artists like Taylor, Drake, Adele and Harry were able to grow commercially album after album because there was always room to grow. It never felt like they were at their biggest commercially on their debut albums. That's the difference between them and the Olivias and the Billies of the world.

I’m confused, how has Olivia peaked with her debut album when she hasn’t released anything since?