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Post by thegreatdivine on Mar 3, 2023 17:24:55 GMT -5
andrebra earlier in the thread, someone mentioned they can see Olivia debuting with 500k+ units with her sophomore album. I replied and said she'd have to not only duplicate the success of her debut album era but almost perform twice as well and I don't see that happening. The post you quoted was me continuing on the premise that it'll be impossible for her to surpass the success of her debut album era.
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85la
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Post by 85la on Mar 3, 2023 18:00:59 GMT -5
I'm thinking maybe Olivia. Sour opened with 295K! She'd not only have to replicate the success of her debut album era to get that but she'd need to do almost twice the numbers her debut album did. I don't think she's gained that much of a fanbase in the time since she released her debut album till whenever her next album will drop. I could be wrong but I don't see it happening.
Well, we're just talking opening-week numbers, not the success of the whole era (which is also possible and not unheard of to replicate as well), but the very fact that she had such immediate hype for her very first album (with two of her first 3 singles also debuting at #1 no less), imo she probably has gained on her already strong fanbase to easily debut with 500K+ on follow-up hype alone.
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kimberly
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Post by kimberly on Mar 3, 2023 18:01:50 GMT -5
Billie is 21 and Olivia is 20. I would never count anyone of that age out I'm sure many thought Taylor had peaked commercially with Fearless too when Speak Now was going on Well, that is the exception, not the rule and Fearless/Speak Now were Taylor's second and third albums, not her debut album like Olivia, Billie (and even Lorde). All three of them peaked commercially with their debut albums because that's when the GP's interest for their music was at its fever pitch. Artists like Taylor, Drake, Adele and Harry were able to grow commercially album after album because there was always room to grow. It never felt like they were at their biggest commercially on their debut albums. That's the difference between them and the Olivias and the Billies of the world. I get what you're saying but I think lumping Olivia Rodrigo in with Billie Eilish and Lorde as if she has released anything at all since her debut album and as if she didn't outperform both of them combined is a bit disingenuous. SOUR produced 4 Top 10 hits and appeared at No. 2 (2021) and No. 8 (2022) on Billboard's Year-End albums chart. There's clearly still a lot of interest in her musical output. Last week, SOUR was the #11 album in the US on Spotify and it's #74 on Apple Music US (Top 15 among women). This wasn't really the case with Lorde (Pure Heroine was No. 6 in 2014, No. 130 in 2015) and Billie Eilish never managed to score a No. 1 hit after "bad guy" β heck, I think she hasn't had a song stick around in the Top 10 for more than 1 week aside from "everything I wanted." Now, you are right that it will be hard to top SOUR β it was a massive era. But numbers-wise, all she needs to improve them is to make equally interesting music and put out the vinyl alongside the album. Maybe take notes from her mother Taylor Swift and release a few alternate covers that turn into... a calendar when you buy 4 and hang on your wall. And maybe have a couple more songs than SOUR, 12-15. |
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Post by thegreatdivine on Mar 3, 2023 18:39:42 GMT -5
85la I think you might be underestimating how hard it is to debut with 500K+ units in today's music market. Maybe Olivia does it with her next album, maybe she doesn't. I personally don't see her ever topping the overall success of SOUR. She'll most likely score a bigger debut week than SOUR with her next album but she'll find it very difficult to replicate the success of SOUR's singles imo. kimberly I'm moreso talking about the general idea of outperforming a massive debut era. I know SOUR was bigger than Pure Heroine & WWAFA, WDWG. My point is the entire SOUR era was a perfect storm of events. It's very rare to have any album score 3 massive hits. To surpass that, she'd have to score either 3 bigger hits or more than 3 hits from her next album. That's virtually impossible. It's not me wishing she doesn't do it β as a chart watcher, it'd be amazing to see her do that and I'd love to be proven wrong but I'm really just being realistic. The chances of her doing that are slim to none. If SOUR was less successful, I'd place my bets on her next era surpassing it but the success of SOUR is a very high bar to clear. It's similar to how Taylor might score a bigger first week than 1989 with future albums but she'll never have that many hit singles off one album ever again. Same goes for Adele with 21, Drake with Scorpion, Ed Sheeran with Divide, etc.
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Music Fan
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Post by Music Fan on Mar 3, 2023 18:50:26 GMT -5
18 hours after release, all 36 songs from Morgan Wallen's "One Thing at a Time" are in the Top 47 of AM. He occupies the Top 9.
The few songs that have been able to slightly hold him from a complete top 36 are:
10. PinkPantheress & Ice Spice - Boy's a liar Pt. 2
12. SZA - Kill Bill
16. SZA - Snooze
21. KAROL G & Shakira - TQG
25. Superstar Pride - Painting Pictures
28. Miley Cyrus - Flowers
33. Toosii - Favorite Song
37. Lil Baby - Freestyle
40. Drake & 21 Savage - Rich Flex
42. Metro Boomin, The Weeknd & 21 Savage - Creepin'
44. Future - WAIT FOR U (feat. Drake & Tems)
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Post by kcdawg13 on Mar 3, 2023 19:00:21 GMT -5
I wouldn't underestimate Olivia, she is gonna pull huge numbers with that second album. I also expect Lil Nas X and Dua Lipa to have huge debuts with their lead-singles.
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jenglisbe
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Post by jenglisbe on Mar 3, 2023 19:06:20 GMT -5
So we really rooting for that racist manβ¦. Kkk Let me also point out he recently performed at the inauguration dinner for Bill Lee in TN, the same Lee who loves to sign anti-LGBTQ legislation into law. |
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Post by Deleted on Mar 3, 2023 19:23:16 GMT -5
Billie is 21 and Olivia is 20. I would never count anyone of that age out I'm sure many thought Taylor had peaked commercially with Fearless too when Speak Now was going on Well, that is the exception, not the rule and Fearless/Speak Now were Taylor's second and third albums, not her debut album like Olivia, Billie (and even Lorde). All three of them peaked commercially with their debut albums because that's when the GP's interest for their music was at its fever pitch. Artists like Taylor, Drake, Adele and Harry were able to grow commercially album after album because there was always room to grow. It never felt like they were at their biggest commercially on their debut albums. That's the difference between them and the Olivias and the Billies of the world. Calling WWAFA,WDWG? Billie's debut for the sake of comparison is kinda useless since her EP smashed similarly to and behaved like a full fledged album on the charts. You can't just take Don't Smile At Me out of the equation when making such an observation. Throwing Lorde in the mix is also weird since Billie and Olivia's debut were not only bigger but they were also bigger celebrities and clearly want to play the pop star game. Like I said, I personally wouldn't count them out. Olivia hasn't even released a followup. Debuting with over 500k units is also very different from matching or surpassing the success of some of the biggest albums by a woman ever. |
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mms82
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Post by mms82 on Mar 3, 2023 21:28:16 GMT -5
18 hours after release, all 36 songs from Morgan Wallen's "One Thing at a Time" are in the Top 47 of AM. He occupies the Top 9. The few songs that have been able to slightly hold him from a complete top 36 are: 10. PinkPantheress & Ice Spice - Boy's a liar Pt. 2 12. SZA - Kill Bill 16. SZA - Snooze 21. KAROL G & Shakira - TQG 25. Superstar Pride - Painting Pictures 28. Miley Cyrus - Flowers 33. Toosii - Favorite Song 37. Lil Baby - Freestyle 40. Drake & 21 Savage - Rich Flex 42. Metro Boomin, The Weeknd & 21 Savage - Creepin' 44. Future - WAIT FOR U (feat. Drake & Tems) Crazy how well Freestyle & Wait For U are still doing |
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Darkest Hour
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Post by Darkest Hour on Mar 3, 2023 21:36:00 GMT -5
it doesnβt seem his team is invested in a Hot 100 number 1 either because I donβt know of any lyric videos or anything like that to push Last Night It's because a lyric video was already uploaded for Last Night back when the song was released. A live performance video was also uploaded last week. I still don't think he will have the #1 because Miley Cyrus has started webstore sales of Flowers again. Luke Combs' team was definitely unprepared during the week of Positions vs Forever After All fight, and I don't think Morgan Wallen's team is either. |
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Darkest Hour
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Post by Darkest Hour on Mar 3, 2023 21:40:51 GMT -5
Btw, Morgan Wallen now has entire top 15 on US Apple Music and all 36 songs of the album are in top 43.
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Post by HamedM1 π on Mar 3, 2023 22:03:30 GMT -5
Btw, Morgan Wallen now has entire top 15 on US Apple Music and all 36 songs of the album are in top 43.  |
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Future Captain
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Post by Future Captain on Mar 3, 2023 22:37:16 GMT -5
it doesnβt seem his team is invested in a Hot 100 number 1 either because I donβt know of any lyric videos or anything like that to push Last Night It's because a lyric video was already uploaded for Last Night back when the song was released. A live performance video was also uploaded last week. I still don't think he will have the #1 because Miley Cyrus has started webstore sales of Flowers again. Luke Combs' team was definitely unprepared during the week of Positions vs Forever After All fight, and I don't think Morgan Wallen's team is either. To be fair, in the Positions vs Forever After All thing, only one side actually see it as a fight they should care about and it's not Luke Combs or his fans lol. |
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Darkest Hour
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Post by Darkest Hour on Mar 3, 2023 22:50:32 GMT -5
To be fair, in the Positions vs Forever After All thing, only one side actually see it as a fight they should care about and it's not Luke Combs or his fans lol.Β He did make a video mid-week telling his fans to buy the song, and the sales did trend a little bit higher afterwards. Still not enough to beat Positions though. |
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Music Fan
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Post by Music Fan on Mar 3, 2023 22:51:17 GMT -5
Btw, Morgan Wallen now has entire top 15 on US Apple Music and all 36 songs of the album are in top 43. When will our fave pop girls not named Taylor with last name Swift. |
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Future Captain
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Post by Future Captain on Mar 3, 2023 22:55:12 GMT -5
To be fair, in the Positions vs Forever After All thing, only one side actually see it as a fight they should care about and it's not Luke Combs or his fans lol. He did make a video mid-week telling his fans to buy the song, and the sales did trend a little bit higher afterwards. Still not enough to beat Positions though. the parasocial behavior in his fans are just not strong enough i guess  |
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85la
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Post by 85la on Mar 3, 2023 23:07:34 GMT -5
Btw, Morgan Wallen now has entire top 15 on US Apple Music and all 36 songs of the album are in top 43. When will our fave pop girls not named Taylor with last name Swift. See Olivia discussion above. |
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jasper0102
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Post by jasper0102 on Mar 3, 2023 23:53:17 GMT -5
Morgan currently with 28 songs on AM Top 100 (including some from prior albums) and 30 songs on iTunes Top 100 (including somes from prior albums). Could we also maybe see one or two songs return, or too much of a longshot? Probably a longshot, i'm fairly certain Morgan's gonna debut enough songs that any old songs of him re-entering is a longshot. I'm more interested in seeing Morgan break the record for most simultaneous Hot 100 entries (27) than seeing him get a #1 hit tbh. It's surprising Drake has held that record for as long as he has, considering how lengthy most mainstream albums are these days and the rise of the release-a-full-length-album-as-a-deluxe-version thing that's been happening since the start of this decade. I hope Morgan somehow manages to debut with 500k+ units. It'd be nice to see someone other than Taylor, Adele or Drake hit that mark. I know i've said this before, but it'd be surprising if he DOESN'T break that record. Kind of surprised Speak Now TV didnβt come out today being 03/03 and a Friday lol. maybe Morgan bumped her Imagine if Morgan and Taylor dropped on the same day though, the CHAOS. Btw, Morgan Wallen now has entire top 15 on US Apple Music and all 36 songs of the album are in top 43. He should probably have entire top 20 soon enough (maybe top 25 too but that's probably a stretch). Btw, Morgan Wallen now has entire top 15 on US Apple Music and all 36 songs of the album are in top 43. Tbh i'd argue it already was over when he announced the album was 36 songs long. |
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rainygirl
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Post by rainygirl on Mar 4, 2023 0:02:40 GMT -5
Jasper0102 you killed it πππ
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jasper0102
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Post by jasper0102 on Mar 4, 2023 0:32:07 GMT -5
Jasper0102 you killed it πππ How, i'm not even that big of a Morgan Wallen stan. Anyways the entire album are in the top 42 of Apple and Morgan now has 23 of the top 25 (only 2 non-Morgan songs are Kill Bill and Boy's A Liar). |
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Post by dremolus - solarpunk on Mar 4, 2023 0:34:46 GMT -5
Morgan Wallen - One Thing At A Time on AM after 12 Hours 1(=) Last Night 9(+14) One Thing At A Time 10(+7) You Proof 11(+28) Everything I Love 16(+22) I Wrote the Book 17(+9) Thought You Should Know 33(+62) Tennessee Fan 38(DEBUT) Born With A Beer In My Hand 56(DEBUT) Man Made A Bar 58(+135) Days That End In Why 85(re-entry) Don't Think Jesus 87(DEBUT) Devil Donβt Know 91(DEBUT) Ainβt That Some 105(DEBUT) β98 Braves 150(DEBUT) Tennessee Numbers 159(DEBUT) Hope Thatβs True 165(DEBUT) Whiskey Friends 175(DEBUT) Thinkinβ Bout Me 191(DEBUT) Sunrise Morgan Wallen - One Thing At A Time on AM after 24 Hours 1(=) Last Night 2(+89) Ainβt That Some 3(+53) Man Made A Bar 4(+7) Everything I Love 5(+33) Born With A Beer In My Hand 6(+3) One Thing At A Time 7(+80) Devil Donβt Know 8(+8) I Wrote the Book 9(+96) β98 Braves 10(+165) Thinkinβ Bout Me 11(-1) You Proof 12(+138) Tennessee Numbers 13(+152) Whiskey Friends 14(+177) Sunrise 15(+144) Hope Thatβs True 17(DEBUT) In the Bible 18(DEBUT) Keith Whitley 19(-2) Thought You Should Know 21(DEBUT) F150-50 22(DEBUT) Me + All Your Reasons 23(DEBUT) Neon Stars 24(DEBUT) Cowgirl 25(DEBUT) I Deserve A Drink 27(DEBUT) Single Than She Was 28(DEBUT) Wine Into Water 29(+4) Tennessee Fan 31(DEBUT) Dying Man 32(DEBUT) Money On Me 33(DEBUT) Good Girl Gone Missin' 34(DEBUT) Last Drive Done Main 35(+23) Days That End In Why 36(DEBUT) Me to Me 38(DEBUT) 180 (Lifestyle) 40(DEBUT) Had It 41(DEBUT) Outlook 42(+43) Don't Think Jesus |
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musiclife
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Post by musiclife on Mar 4, 2023 0:36:14 GMT -5
Can Last Night really go #1??
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rainygirl
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Post by rainygirl on Mar 4, 2023 0:40:57 GMT -5
Jasper0102 you killed it πππ How, i'm not even that big of a Morgan Wallen stan. Anyways the entire album are in the top 42 of Apple and Morgan now has 23 of the top 25 (only 2 non-Morgan songs are Kill Bill and Boy's A Liar). Iβm not a Morgan stan either |
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jasper0102
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Post by jasper0102 on Mar 4, 2023 0:44:19 GMT -5
Can Last Night really go #1?? I'm willing to bet it will get there. The gap between it and Flowers isn't large enough for a good streaming boost to overcome, and i doubt Die For You is staying at number-one. I think it's gonna tumble to #4 and then stay there for a few weeks. |
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Music Fan
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Post by Music Fan on Mar 4, 2023 0:44:43 GMT -5
Has Spotify generally been better than AM for the likes of Morgan Wallen and Luke Combs?
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rainygirl
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Post by rainygirl on Mar 4, 2023 0:47:09 GMT -5
Can Last Night really go #1?? no , I just donβt see it . But letβs see what the Spotify numbers are tomorrow I guess ? |
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jasper0102
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Post by jasper0102 on Mar 4, 2023 0:48:56 GMT -5
Has Spotify generally been better than AM for the likes of Morgan Wallen and Luke Combs? No i'm guessing. Can Last Night really go #1?? no , I just donβt see it . But letβs see what the Spotify numbers are tomorrow I guess ? Wish i could time-travel a few hours and see how Morgan's doing on Spotify, my impatience is showing. |
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rainygirl
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Post by rainygirl on Mar 4, 2023 0:53:24 GMT -5
Jasper0102 and wouldnβt you know tomorrowβs Spotify numbers will probably be delayed for a few hours lol .. kidding
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musiclife
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Post by musiclife on Mar 4, 2023 0:59:44 GMT -5
Can Last Night really go #1?? no , I just donβt see it . But letβs see what the Spotify numbers are tomorrow I guess ? He was only like 70 points behind for the projections for the hot 100 currently right? If he is really streaming as much as he is I think it's possible.. |
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rainygirl
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Post by rainygirl on Mar 4, 2023 1:01:59 GMT -5
no , I just donβt see it . But letβs see what the Spotify numbers are tomorrow I guess ? He was only like 70 points behind for the projections for the hot 100 currently right? If he is really streaming as much as he is I think it's possible.. yes anything is definitely possible |
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