Billboard Hot 100: 07/15/2023

[Darkest Hour]

[kindofbiased]

I think Vampire's gonna be fine but man removing website sales this week made this race so much closer than I wanted it to be

[85la]

Yeah Vampire gonna be #1 by not a very strong margin. Which leads to the all more sickening scenario that Last Night could return to #1 for several more weeks

[scrohr424]

Jul 3, 2023 19:29:19 GMT -5 85la said:

Yeah Vampire gonna be #1 by not a very strong margin. Which leads to the all more sickening scenario that Last Night could return to #1 for several more weeks

*insert disappointed black guy meme here*

[shadowthehedgehogfan]

it's over if she loses to Morgan Wallen.

[Au$tin]

Jul 3, 2023 20:44:42 GMT -5 shadowthehedgehogfan said:

it's over if she loses to Morgan Wallen.

What's over?

[neel]

If "Vampire" falls next week and Morgan returns, then Lil Nas X is in trouble. Especially with the song's gains of pop airplay and what I fear will give a strong run on there. It's not question that Morgan will likely end 2023 with the #1 song of the year and the #1 album of the year, if that happens would this be the third time an artist did? or...

[jasper0102]

Jul 3, 2023 21:32:29 GMT -5 neel said:

Especially with the song's gains of pop airplay and what I fear will give a strong run on there.

Are you talking about Thinkin Bout Me here...

[Groovy]

I would also add Cardi B’s Up and Harry’s Watermelon Sugar to the iconic videos of the 2020s

[HolidayGuy]

Has Billboard officially announced somewhere that digital sales from acts' websites will no longer count? And what about physical singles, in the small cases that may exist?

[lazer]

Jul 3, 2023 21:32:29 GMT -5 neel said:

If "Vampire" falls next week and Morgan returns, then Lil Nas X is in trouble. Especially with the song's gains of pop airplay and what I fear will give a strong run on there. It's not question that Morgan will likely end 2023 with the #1 song of the year and the #1 album of the year, if that happens would this be the third time an artist did? or...

Even if Vampire falls, Drake and Travis Scott hasn’t released their albums yet. There is still hope for Lil Nas X.

[HamedM1 💔]

Jul 3, 2023 22:02:29 GMT -5 Groovy said:

I would also add Cardi B’s Up and Harry’s Watermelon Sugar to the iconic videos of the 2020s

I can see a case for Up cause its another visually memorable video but Watermelon Sugar is another generic summer themed music video imo.

[musiclife]

Last Night is very strong. I think Olivia will hold on though.. hopefully Taylor has something up her sleeve this weekend.

[shadowthehedgehogfan]

is vampire underperforming? or does it just feel that way?

[suburbandreams]

Jul 3, 2023 23:14:58 GMT -5 shadowthehedgehogfan said:

is vampire underperforming? or does it just feel that way?

vampire is doing fine. It looks like its going #1 unless it suddenly falls off . It then should stay in the top 10 for a long time and might even return to #1 eventually if radio goes crazy for it.

However, there are extremely high expectations for Olivia that vampire underperforming.  People were expecting a strong multi week #1 like drivers license or good 4 u.  However, those songs had much bigger hooks than vampire. But basically we shouldn't expect any artist to consistently deliver multi week #1s.  

sour suceeded as an album not just based on its lead singles.  Olivia doesn't necessarily need to replicate sour's single performance to have a blockbuster.  We really need to  wait until sour's release week to see if she has built a strong fanbase that carry her no matter how strong her lead single is.

[bonicap]

Jul 3, 2023 23:14:58 GMT -5 shadowthehedgehogfan said:

is vampire underperforming? or does it just feel that way?

I don't think going #1 on the Hot 100 is underperforming. The song is not increasing day by day and going viral like Driver's License or Good 4 U did, but Olivia is not an unknown up and coming artist anymore. It had a big debut and it's quite stable.

[jasper0102]

[dremolus - solarpunk]

US Spotify - 07/02/23

1(=) Olivia Rodrigo - vampire 2,460,119 (-643,468) (-20%)
2(=) Morgan Wallen - Last Night 1,411,459 (-224,670)
3(+1) Eslabon Armado, Peso Pluma - Ella Baila Sola 1,163,117 (-161,546)
4(-1) Lil Uzi Vert - Flooded the Face 1,109,799 (-430,990) (-28%)
5(=) Taylor Swift - Cruel Summer 1,076,025 (-172,659)
6(=) Gunna - fukumean 1,020,051 (-111,801)
7(+1) Luke Combs - Fast Car 905,608 (-128,975)
8(+3) SZA - Kill Bill 781,680 (-97,933)
9(=) Lil Uzi Vert, Nicki Minaj - Endless Fashion 772,842 (-253,966) (-25%)
10(+3) Grupo Frontera, Bad Bunny - un x100to 734,162 (-101,428)

Lil Uzi Vert - Pink Tape [22/26]
11(-4) Suicide Doors 725,217 (-362,405) (-33%)
18(-8) Aye 646,114 (-343,432) (-35%)
22(-6) Just Wanna Rock 612,038 (-216,159)
25(-10) I Gotta 594,010 (-234,925)
35(-10) Pluto to Mars 532,642 (-195,636)
43(-22) x2 495,704 (-249,877)
47(-24) Crush Em 484,610 (-252,966)
49(-18) Werewolf 474,730 (-194,594)
52(-14) Spin Again 462,236 (-182,805)
60(-25) Nakamura 435,527 (-215,123)
61(-9) The End 432,352 (-144,622)
66(-16) Patience 430,018 (-144,622)
70(-33) Amped 420,244 (-225,173)
72(-31) Mama, I'm Sorry 418,442 (-189,864)
98(-42) All Alone 370,020 (-187,974)
100(-40) Zoom 368,401 (-159,908)
111(-56) Died and Came Back 357,342 (-203,338)
115(-50) Fire Alarm 349,351 (-159,078)
155(-78) That Fiya 313,767 (-173,860)
178(-97) CS 297,546 (-179,194)
Total Third Day Streams: 11,102,952 (-35%)

Other:
12(+2) Morgan Wallen - You Proof 723,670 (-106,682)
13(+6) Tyler the Creator, Kali Uchis - See You Again 700,161 (-65,441)
14(-2) Peso Pluma, Gabito Ballesteros, Junior H - LADY GAGA 698,605 (-161,971) (-18%)
15(+2) Yng Lvcas, Peso Pluma - La Bebe Remix 679,564 (-102,201)
16(+2) Nicki Minaj, Ice Spice - Barbie World 656,334 (-118,919) (-15%)
17(+3) Lil Durk, J. Cole - All My Life 652,716 (-105,281)
19(+3) Bad Bunny - WHERE SHE GOES 637,132 (-101,413)
21(+3) Fuerza Regida - SABOR FRESA 616,181 (-117,480)
23(+4) Tainy, Bad Bunny - MOJABI GHOST 605,308 (-106,995) (-15%)
24(+4) Junior H, Peso Pluma - El Azul 601,602 (-87,959)
26(+6) Zach Bryan - Something in the Orange 593,278 (-74,571)
27(+3) Fuerza Regida - TQM 588,912 (-93,589)
28(+1) Miley Cyrus - Flowers 583,073 (-106,411)
31(+16) Peso Pluma, Grupo Frontera - TULUM 549,424 (-45,415)
32(+7) Morgan Wallen - Thinkin' Bout Me 543,256 (-83,230)
34(+6) FIFTY FIFTY - Cupid (Twin Version) 539,560 (-70,949)
36(-3) Peso Pluma, Junior H - LUNA 532,535 (-133,899)
37(+6) Bizarrap, Peso Pluma - Bzrp Music Sessions, Vol. 55 524,140 (-80,521)
38(+4) Kali - Area Codes 523,889 (-83,443)
39(+5) Taylor Swift - Karma 516,788 (-84,841)
40(+8) Drake - Search & Rescue 509,399 (-80,250)
41(+13) Post Malone, Swae Lee - Sunflower 502,900 (-57,926)
42(+7) Peso Pluma - BYE 499,328 (-87,095)
44(+7) Taylor Swift - Anti-Hero 494,923 (-85,466)
45(+8) Metro Boomin, Swae Lee, NAV, A Boogie Wit da Hoodie - Calling 494,118 (-77,757)
46(+11) Rema, Selena Gomez - Calm Down 487,399 (-60,127)
48(+11) Metro Boomin, The Weeknd, 21 Savage - Creepin' 476,303 (-60,321)
50(+13) Peso Pluma - Por las Noches 465,807 (-51,043)
54(+14) Kali Uchis - Moonlight 458,775 (-48,039)
55(+18) David Kushner - Daylight 449,921 (-43,404)
56(+14) SZA - Snooze 448,187 (-58,113)
57(+14) Kendrick Lamar, Jay Rock - Money Trees 443,841 (-53,237)
59(+7) Noah Kahan - Dial Drunk 437,031 (-71,004)
62(+13) Metro Boomin, A$AP Rocky, Roisee - Am I Dreaming 432,295 (-57,798)
65(+4) Lil Durk, Morgan Wallen - Stand By Me 430,088 (-76,396)
71(-4) Young Thug, Drake - Oh U Went 419,687 (-87,200)
74(+12) Miguel - Sure Thing 413,974 (-46,622)
76(+6) Taylor Swift - Blank Space 410,184 (-59,958)
79(+4) Taylor Swift - Style 408,361 (-58,513)
81(+3) Doja Cat - Attention 400,000 (-60,596)
86(+10) Metro Boomin, Swae Lee, Lil Wayne, Offset - Annihilate 390,097 (-46,780)
89(+17) Kanye West - I Wonder 382,419 (-35,556)
90(+1) The Weeknd, Playboi Carti, Madonna - Popular 381,573 (-59,040)
92(-2) Lyrical Lemonade, Juice WRLD, Cordae - Doomsday 378,529 (-62,985)
95(+16) Taylor Swift - cardigan 373,386 (-40,453)
96(-4) Yahritza Y Su Esencia, Grupo Frontera - Frágil 371,248 (-68,066)
97(+12) Metro Boomin, Coi Leray - Self Love 370,361 (-45,017)
99(-10) Peso Pluma, Edgardo Nuñez, Los Dareyes De La Sierra - VVS 368,534 (-80,889)

101(+1) Metro Boomin, Future, Don Toliver - Too Many Nights 366,994 (-53,885)
104(=) Taylor Swift - Don't Blame Me 363,151 (-55,474)
106(+6) Taylor Swift - Enchanted 360,409 (-48,112)
107(-49) Natanael Cano, Peso Pluma, Gabito Ballesteros - AMG 360,166 (-179,341)
116(+5) Jordan Davis - Next Thing You Know 343,590 (-51,145)
117(+31) Brent Faiyaz - Clouded 342,848 (-21,464)
119(+25) Bailey Zimmerman - Religiously 342,597 (-25,708)
123(+2) Feid, Young Miko - Classy 101 339,951 (-49,726)
125(+34) Jimin - Like Crazy 338,159 (-17,120)
126(-16) Fall Out Boy - We Didn't Start the Fire [2023] 338,057 (-76,261)
127(-12) Dua Lipa - Dance the Night 337,938 (-64,978)
129(-7) Morgan Wallen - Ain't That Some 336,273 (-58,043)
131(+52) TV Girl - Lovers Rock 335,591 (+78)
132(+7) Morgan Wallen, ERNEST - Cowgirls 333,270 (-38,946)
135(+12) Metro Boomin, 21 Savage - Glock in My Lap 328,189-364,546 (-36357)
136(+2) Young Nudy, 21 Savage - Peaches & Eggplants 327,810 (-45,713)
137(-9) Peso Pluma - RUBICON 327,534 (-57,617)
139(+2) Taylor Swift - august 325,926 (-44,156)
140(-7) Post Malone - Chemical 325,883 (-53,949)
141(-9) Taylor Swift - Lavender Haze 325,728 (-55,564)
142(-8) Ice Spice, Nicki Minaj - Princess Diana 325,072 (-54,307)
143(+23) Bakar - Hell N Back 319,927 (-30,156)
145(+9) Dominic Fike - Mona Lisa 319,519 (-40,646)
149(-4) Tyler Hubbard - Dancin' in the Country 316,445 (-51,220)
150(-7) Peso Pluma, Jasiel Nuñez - LAGUNAS 314,900 (-53,551)
151(+33) Arctic Monkeys - 505 314,771 (-20,484)
153(+11) Zach Bryan - Sun to Me 314,039 (-38,597)
157(+8) Toosii - Favorite Song 312,486 (-37,746)
158(-7) Taylor Swift - Lover 312,300 (-50,080)
159(-6) Becky G, Peso Pluma - Chanel 311,911 (-49,382)
162(+1) Megan Moroney - Tennessee Orange 311,525 (-42,292)
170(-14) Oscar Maydon, Junior H - Fin de Semana 304,670 (-52,044)
176(+5) Noah Kahan - Stick Season 299,470 (-38,046)
177(-1) Jelly Roll - Need A Favor 299,258 (-42,673)
191(+4) Lil Mabu - MATHEMATICAL DISRESPECT 289,170 (-32,011)
192(-4) Fuerza Regida, Peso Pluma - Igualito a Mi Apá 288,763 (-41,869)
193(re-entry) Lana Del Rey - Say Yes to Heaven 288,213
196(-10) Fuerza Regida, Natanael Cano - Ch y la Pizza 285,208 (-46,839)
198(-5) Taylor Swift - Getaway Car 283,239 (-4,0285)

[Darkest Hour]

Olivia Rodrigo - vampire (Monday stats):
US Spotify #1 (2,504,497 streams)
US Apple Music #2
US Amazon Music #21 + #24

[neel]

Jul 4, 2023 6:01:52 GMT -5 Darkest Hour said:

Olivia Rodrigo - vampire (Monday stats):
US Spotify #1 (2,504,497 streams)
US Apple Music #2
US Amazon Music #21 + #24

Yeah, Olivia’s not having a strong run after one week.

[gs]

Assuming Drake doesn't have a God's Plan level smash on the new album, and Taylor doesn't manage to hit #1 (nothing from the album seems hyped), Last Night is definitely threatening OTR's record at this point.

And even if not, it already has 22 weeks in the top 10 and tons of weeks at #1 - it's on pace to enter the top 10 all-time right now, and could even threaten BL at this point. Beating both OTR and Blinding Lights' records will cause extreme meltdowns I fear.

[iHype.]

Jul 4, 2023 6:54:55 GMT -5 gs said:

Assuming Drake doesn't have a God's Plan level smash on the new album, and Taylor doesn't manage to hit #1 (nothing from the album seems hyped), Last Night is definitely threatening OTR's record at this point.

And even if not, it already has 22 weeks in the top 10 and tons of weeks at #1 - it's on pace to enter the top 10 all-time right now, and could even threaten BL at this point. Beating both OTR and Blinding Lights' records will cause extreme meltdowns I fear.

Let’s calm down lol. Beating Blinding Lights requires predicting well over 6 months of future charting that’s beyond reasonably predicting at this moment.

[jayhawk1117]

Well considering Drake is teasing the album now, it’s likely coming soon, I don’t see him missing number one. Taylor’s team can smell
Blood in the water with Cruel Summer, she hasn’t has a non lead single blow up like this in YEARS, they’ll have a plan to push it lol. And if Enchanted TV does actually have that MV, I’d say that could maybe do it too.

Last night is “Only” at 13. If all 3 of those songs can snatch number one for Even a week, that’s 7 more weeks to tie and 8 to beat it. I’d be more than shocked if it can hold on to that upper 200s till late September but crazier things have happened. With how SLOW radio is to turn over, there’s a path to Blinding Lights but that’s again nearly 8 months away lol

[Au$tin]

Jul 4, 2023 4:05:09 GMT -5 jasper0102 said:

Did they have to use a picture that looks like she's farting into a microphone?

[lazer]

Jul 4, 2023 6:01:52 GMT -5 Darkest Hour said:

Olivia Rodrigo - vampire (Monday stats):
US Spotify #1 (2,504,497 streams)
US Apple Music #2
US Amazon Music #21 + #24

And I thought Monday would increase the streams.

[dremolus - solarpunk]

Jul 4, 2023 9:27:09 GMT -5 lazer said:

Jul 4, 2023 6:01:52 GMT -5 Darkest Hour said:

Olivia Rodrigo - vampire (Monday stats):
US Spotify #1 (2,504,497 streams)
US Apple Music #2
US Amazon Music #21 + #24

And I thought Monday would increase the streams.

Independence Day holiday, gains are usually stunted when people don't have work.

[atg]

Jul 4, 2023 7:42:39 GMT -5 jayhawk1117 said:

Last night is “Only” at 13. If all 3 of those songs can snatch number one for Even a week, that’s 7 more weeks to tie and 8 to beat it. I’d be more than shocked if it can hold on to that upper 200s till late September but crazier things have happened. With how SLOW radio is to turn over, there’s a path to Blinding Lights but that’s again nearly 8 months away lol

Last Night is basically Blinding Lights if it had absolutely no competition and the songs below it were even weaker than they were back then in 2020.

[lazer]

Jul 4, 2023 10:03:53 GMT -5 atg said:

Jul 4, 2023 7:42:39 GMT -5 jayhawk1117 said:

Last night is “Only” at 13. If all 3 of those songs can snatch number one for Even a week, that’s 7 more weeks to tie and 8 to beat it. I’d be more than shocked if it can hold on to that upper 200s till late September but crazier things have happened. With how SLOW radio is to turn over, there’s a path to Blinding Lights but that’s again nearly 8 months away lol

Last Night is basically Blinding Lights if it had absolutely no competition and the songs below it were even weaker than they were back then in 2020.

Last Night is also Blinding Lights but no redeeming quality or interesting production.

[Baby Yoda Hot100Fan]

kworb's Billboard Radio Songs Estimates « 2023 » / « 07 » / « 04 »

1(=) Rema & Selena Gomez - Calm Down 104.58(+0.30)
2(=) Morgan Wallen - Last Night 91.95(-0.20)
3(=) Miley Cyrus - Flowers 88.79(-0.14) -
4(=) Luke Combs - Fast Car 74.19(+0.67)
5(=) Metro Boomin, The Weeknd & 21 Savage - Creepin' 72.05(-1.18)

6(=) Taylor Swift - Karma 69.43(+0.37)
7(=) SZA - Snooze 61.09(-0.51)
8(=) Miguel - Sure Thing 57.63(-0.24)
9(=) Ed Sheeran - Eyes Closed 55.45(-0.17)
10(=) Jordan Davis - Next Thing You Know 48.47(-0.22)

26(+1) Taylor Swift - Cruel Summer 29.69(+1.28)

58(+16) Olivia Rodrigo - vampire 17.23(+3.22)

-(-) Morgan Wallen - Everything I Love 6.14(+0.91)

-(-) Byron Messia - Talibans 3.65(+1.25) +

-(-) Shakira & Manuel Turizo - Copa Vacía 2.33(+0.70) +

[gs]

Jul 4, 2023 7:22:26 GMT -5 iHype. said:

Jul 4, 2023 6:54:55 GMT -5 gs said:

Assuming Drake doesn't have a God's Plan level smash on the new album, and Taylor doesn't manage to hit #1 (nothing from the album seems hyped), Last Night is definitely threatening OTR's record at this point.

And even if not, it already has 22 weeks in the top 10 and tons of weeks at #1 - it's on pace to enter the top 10 all-time right now, and could even threaten BL at this point. Beating both OTR and Blinding Lights' records will cause extreme meltdowns I fear.

Let’s calm down lol. Beating Blinding Lights requires predicting well over 6 months of future charting that’s beyond reasonably predicting at this moment.

While it's really early still, the signs are all there:

- Pop radio appears to be pushing it to #1 after it was chilling for a while, as it's suddenly getting big spin updates. It must have good callouts, and therefore likely still has a lot of radio airplay left in it
- Its streaming longevity is out of this world - Sunday & Monday this July on Spotify were bigger than all of them in June... no song has had such longevity of ~30M+ streams weeks this decade

To put it simply, it's showing signs of a legendary run at least better than Stay & As It Was.

Yes, Blinding Lights had a The Twist-tier second wind, which I doubt it will have and is kinda necessary to hit that top 2 bar; but top 10 all-time feels very likely at this point, which makes it a possible threat for #1 - however unlikely at this point in time.