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Post by Rose "Payola" Nylund on Jul 4, 2023 11:28:25 GMT -5
it's over if she loses to Morgan Wallen. What's over? It |
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Ｓｏｕｎｄｃｌ🕤ｃｋ
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Post by Ｓｏｕｎｄｃｌ🕤ｃｋ on Jul 4, 2023 11:46:14 GMT -5
🙌
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Choco
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Post by Choco on Jul 4, 2023 11:49:37 GMT -5
This might be a hot take but I can see "Enchanted TV" beating the estimated point total that "vampire" is posting.
Well, maybe; they would probably need some physicals sales and I don't think Taylor is doing a full push.
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neel
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Post by neel on Jul 4, 2023 12:19:28 GMT -5
I don’t think “Last Night” is coming for BL record. It would still have to be in the Top 10 by March 2024 to even get into the Top 3 of GOAT list (much easier path is to break OTR record and spent between 20-25 weeks at #1).
But I just find it really “interesting….. that ever since “Circles” passed the 33 week mark in the summer of 2020 songs that aren’t great in quality and are incredibly weak on the Hot 100 now get to spent between 30-40 weeks in the Top 10, then end up lining next to each other in the GOAT top 10. By 2029 the entire Top 10 of the GOAT list will have “AIWFCIY” and 9 2020s songs.
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atg
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Post by atg on Jul 4, 2023 12:32:04 GMT -5
I don’t think Last Night will last until 2024 for it to threaten the top 10 GOAT list. The thing about Blinding Lights was that it literally had 2 separate runs, the huge typical smash hit that it was in 2020 and its second wind in 2021 after dropping off that Christmas. Last Night will probably just have a AIW type of run imo.
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85la
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Post by 85la on Jul 4, 2023 12:38:41 GMT -5
I don’t think “Last Night” is coming for BL record. It would still have to be in the Top 10 by March 2024 to even get into the Top 3 of GOAT list (much easier path is to break OTR record and spent between 20-25 weeks at #1). But I just find it really “interesting….. that ever since “Circles” passed the 33 week mark in the summer of 2020 songs that aren’t great in quality and are incredibly weak on the Hot 100 now get to spent between 30-40 weeks in the Top 10, then end up lining next to each other in the GOAT top 10. By 2029 the entire Top 10 of the GOAT list will have “AIWFCIY” and 9 2020s songs. It makes sense that some songs which go on to be overall big hits, but with weaker week-to-week points, would spend more time in the top 10, because the consumption would be more spread out, but yes, this does give them a slightly unfair advantage on the GOAT list. Longevity continues to increase ever more so, but they will continue to weigh the eras accordingly, so I doubt the top 10 of the GOAT list will eventually consist of all 2020s songs.
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neel
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Post by neel on Jul 4, 2023 12:43:03 GMT -5
Either way, if it does indeed break the OTR record. It's going to be pretty notable seeing us go from a gay young black man, whose song wasn't "country" enough having that record. Then down to a white man whose quality in the genre was already going down the toilet, drunkly yell "ni—er," which then bolstered his career because of "mah cancel culture."
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Post by shadowthehedgehogfan on Jul 4, 2023 13:12:23 GMT -5
is vampire underperforming? or does it just feel that way? I don't think going #1 on the Hot 100 is underperforming. The song is not increasing day by day and going viral like Driver's License or Good 4 U did, but Olivia is not an unknown up and coming artist anymore. It had a big debut and it's quite stable. A #1 song can absolutely be considered underperforming. it was certainly expected to do much better than this |
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Post by shadowthehedgehogfan on Jul 4, 2023 13:14:30 GMT -5
Either way, if it does indeed break the OTR record. It's going to be pretty notable seeing us go from a gay young black man, whose song wasn't "country" enough having that record. Then down to a white man whose quality in the genre was already going down the toilet, drunkly yell "ni—er," which then bolstered his career because of "mah cancel culture." not to mention that Last Night is easily the worst song he's ever released. At least Broadway Girls is funny |
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Envoirment
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Post by Envoirment on Jul 4, 2023 13:31:39 GMT -5
Olivia up to 2,504,497 yesterday vs Morgan's 1,480,027 - over 1 million more again.
Looks like Olivia is stabilising somewhat (granted most songs increase on Monday vs Sunday).
I honestly think "Vampire" will hold up really well, particularly as its airplay catches up. I can see it getting multiple weeks at #1 even if it drops in the second week. Although "Cruel Summer" will be big competition soon.
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Post by kcdawg13 on Jul 4, 2023 13:45:41 GMT -5
Last Night is gonna continue to have insane longevity, mostly in part due to pop radio. It should be peaking everywhere by this time in it's run but pop radio has been letting it sit in the 6-10 zone for the last 2 months and now they are deciding to push it towards #1.
I can't believe Olivia is only like 20 points off of Morgan, he's for sure taking #1 back next week and then it's anyone's guess who's gonna stop him. Drake's #1 hits are usually one week and done, so it seems Taylor with Cruel Summer is the only one who can really take him down for good.
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Au$tin
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Post by Au$tin on Jul 4, 2023 14:33:37 GMT -5
I don't think going #1 on the Hot 100 is underperforming. The song is not increasing day by day and going viral like Driver's License or Good 4 U did, but Olivia is not an unknown up and coming artist anymore. It had a big debut and it's quite stable. A #1 song can absolutely be considered underperforming. it was certainly expected to do much better than this Only by people who always assume big name released = massive debut numbers without every hearing an inkling of the track and not using any context whatsoever. These are also the same people who make entire opinions of a song's hit status and success based off one week of data. So, naturally, I fully expect to be claiming it's over for Taylor next week too when nothing fights for #1. And Drake as well. |
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jl
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Post by jl on Jul 4, 2023 14:41:16 GMT -5
If "Vampire" falls next week and Morgan returns, then Lil Nas X is in trouble. Especially with the song's gains of pop airplay and what I fear will give a strong run on there. It's not question that Morgan will likely end 2023 with the #1 song of the year and the #1 album of the year, if that happens would this be the third time an artist did? or... Did LNX announce something recently?! |
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Italian Barb
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Post by Italian Barb on Jul 4, 2023 14:43:16 GMT -5
let's be realistic.
we all expected much bigger numbers for Vampire. I'm not saying it's a flop of course. but it's a sign that Olivia's career is already in decline after just one album.
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atg
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Post by atg on Jul 4, 2023 14:45:59 GMT -5
let's be realistic. we all expected much bigger numbers for Vampire. I'm not saying it's a flop of course. but it's a sign that Olivia's career is already in decline after just one album. This makes no sense at all. |
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Italian Barb
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Post by Italian Barb on Jul 4, 2023 14:51:29 GMT -5
let's be realistic. we all expected much bigger numbers for Vampire. I'm not saying it's a flop of course. but it's a sign that Olivia's career is already in decline after just one album. This makes no sense at all. Explain why then. Can you argoment? |
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kindofbiased
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Post by kindofbiased on Jul 4, 2023 15:33:07 GMT -5
I am so tired of people on these forums being so desperate to write off any new single when it isn't debuting with 1000 points. It's been 4 days since Vampire came out it is WAY too early to say Olivia's career is "already in decline." Calm down
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Italian Barb
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Post by Italian Barb on Jul 4, 2023 15:42:26 GMT -5
You'll see
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gs
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Post by gs on Jul 4, 2023 15:43:54 GMT -5
Claiming she's in decline after debuting at #1 and not even a week into the single's performance is kind of comical honestly. The song just isn't viral like drivers license and g4u were; it's performing like if deja vu was a comeback lead single, with more fanbase this time around. It's early but it looks like it'll be a big hit but not a huge 8-10 week #1 mega smash.
You gotta wait for the album and its reception before determining where her career might go regardless.
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buzzcharts
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Post by buzzcharts on Jul 4, 2023 15:48:57 GMT -5
This might be a hot take but I can see "Enchanted TV" beating the estimated point total that "vampire" is posting. Well, maybe; they would probably need some physicals sales and I don't think Taylor is doing a full push. Enchanted will have no radio, it wont |
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Post by shadowthehedgehogfan on Jul 4, 2023 16:03:46 GMT -5
let's be realistic. we all expected much bigger numbers for Vampire. I'm not saying it's a flop of course. but it's a sign that Olivia's career is already in decline after just one album. its a sophomore slump for sure. |
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Post by shadowthehedgehogfan on Jul 4, 2023 16:05:39 GMT -5
This might be a hot take but I can see "Enchanted TV" beating the estimated point total that "vampire" is posting. Well, maybe; they would probably need some physicals sales and I don't think Taylor is doing a full push. Enchanted will have no radio, it wont source? |
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atg
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Post by atg on Jul 4, 2023 16:51:32 GMT -5
This makes no sense at all. Explain why then. Can you argoment? It’s just ONE single that doesn’t mean that her career is over or on a decline. When the album drops and if it flops then we can have a discussion about how it might be on a downfall, but for now she is still doing well. Why would you expect this era to automatically be bigger than her last thats not how it works. Vampire is still going to the top i have never seen people call a #1 song a flop or underperforming. |
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Ｓｏｕｎｄｃｌ🕤ｃｋ
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Post by Ｓｏｕｎｄｃｌ🕤ｃｋ on Jul 4, 2023 17:31:04 GMT -5
yeah, we all saw the end of her career when deja vu "only debuted at #8" after DL. |
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jeiboy
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Post by jeiboy on Jul 4, 2023 17:39:17 GMT -5
you heard the album yet Italian Barb? |
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PREDS PRIDE
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Post by PREDS PRIDE on Jul 4, 2023 17:44:02 GMT -5
let's be realistic. we all expected much bigger numbers for Vampire. I'm not saying it's a flop of course. but it's a sign that Olivia's career is already in decline after just one album.  |
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wavey.
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Post by wavey. on Jul 4, 2023 17:51:19 GMT -5
I wouldn't even put her in the decline especially since we haven't seen any performance chart wise yet, but I think I'm pretty sure debuting at #1 is pretty sure a successful start 😃.
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neogale
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Post by neogale on Jul 4, 2023 18:00:47 GMT -5
Do you'll ŕemember when Taylor flopped and the lead single from her third album was out of the top 10 just three weeks after its debut? Sad that her career went nowehere after that, especially because her previous era was so massive :/
No, but for real. Calling out that Olivia's career is already on its way out is just crazy at this point xd. The album is still months away, let's calm down, wait and see.
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Au$tin
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Post by Au$tin on Jul 4, 2023 18:04:47 GMT -5
Enchanted will have no radio, it wont source? This you? let's be realistic. we all expected much bigger numbers for Vampire. I'm not saying it's a flop of course. but it's a sign that Olivia's career is already in decline after just one album. its a sophomore slump for sure. |
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Choco
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Post by Choco on Jul 4, 2023 18:25:26 GMT -5
Her label needs to keep Karma at #1 on CHR and then focus on Cruel Summer. There's no need for a source, it's common sense lmao that they will not go after radio with Enchantef.
But cardigan/willow/all too well didn't go for adds either and can anyone remind me where those peaked?
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