Billboard Hot 100: 10/28/2023

[Baby Yoda Hot100Fan]

Will Fall Be the Season for Taylor Swift’s ‘Cruel Summer’ at No. 1?

10/18/2023

By Brian Unterberger

In this week's The Contenders, the world's biggest pop star looks to cap her dominant 2023 with a new-old Hot 100-topper. 

The Contenders is a midweek column that looks at artists aiming for the top of the Billboard charts, and the strategies behind their efforts. This week (for the upcoming charts dated Oct. 28), Taylor Swift could finally be in line to top the Billboard Hot 100 with her revived “Summer” hit, but may end up neck-and-neck with hits from several other big-name artists, including an old labelmate and chart competitor. 

Taylor Swift, “Cruel Summer” (Republic): Have you gotten your ticket for the Eras Tour movie? Plenty of Swifties already have, since the film debuted last weekend (Oct. 13-15) to a $92.8 million opening – already making it fairly easily the biggest concert doc ever after just a few days of release. And although Taylor Swift‘s fans hardly need another reason to consume her catalog in greater numbers, wouldn’t you know it: She has seen a bump in streams and sales since the film’s release, including for her current top song, the resuscitated Lover highlight “Cruel Summer.”

It’s not an enormous streaming bump for “Cruel Summer” (likely not even a double-digit percentage gain week over week), but the song has spiked in sales. “Summer” even returns to the top of the real-time iTunes sales chart this week, as fans are newly inspired by the song’s prominent placement in Taylor Swift: The Eras Tour — or perhaps just sense an opening on the Hot 100 for the longtime fan favorite, originally released in 2019, while it’s a relatively slow week and Swift has an additional boost in momentum. (Also helping: Swift discounting the single to $0.69 on iTunes for the last couple days of the tracking week.)

Will it all be enough to raise the song — which has thus far peaked at No. 3 amid proper single promotion that began in June, and falls to No. 9 this week (on the chart dated Oct. 21) under an avalanche of Drake For All the Dogs debuts – all the way to No. 1? It’s certainly possible, with Drake’s songs naturally receding in their second week, and nothing else in the top 10 poised to make obvious gains. Radio could be key: “Cruel Summer” fell out of the No. 1 spot on Billboard’s Radio Songs listing two weeks ago but has been holding strong at No. 2 since; if it can keep from further slippage there, it may have just enough in an all three Hot 100 components for a real run at the chart’s apex.

Drake feat. J. Cole, “First Person Shooter” / Drake feat. Yeat, “IDGAF” (OVO/Republic): Taylor Swift clearly got under labelmate Drake’s skin last November when her newly remix-boosted Hot 100 conquerer “Anti-Hero” blocked his and 21 Savage’s new “Rich Flex” from debuting at No. 1 on the chart: Might it be time for him to return the favor? Drake will have the advantage of incumbency on the chart, as his J. Cole-featuring “First Person Shooter” bows atop the listing this week, making for his 13th Hot 100 No. 1 (and Cole’s long-awaited first). The song is expected to drop significantly in streams this week, however, so it might need a boost from a new video (or fan meme) to have much shot at holding the top spot.

That said, it’s not Drake’s only contender in the chart’s top tier: The Yeat-featuring “IDGAF” has passed it on the daily charts on Spotify and Apple Music for about a week now – currently ranking No. 1 on both listings — and seems likely to take over as his top-charter on the Hot 100, as well. The song’s presence in digital sales and on radio is still fairly minimal however, so it will really have to score big in streaming to have much chance at holding off Swift’s surge for a belated No. 1.

Doja Cat, “Paint the Town Red” (Kemosabe/RCA): Remember this one? “Paint the Town Red” has already spent three weeks at No. 1 on the Hot 100, and even amid the Drake surge this week it’s still holding strong at No. 4. Doja‘s smash ranks No. 3 both on Billboard’s Radio Songs and Digital Song Sales charts this week, and though it falls to No. 20 on Streaming Songs, it’s still the second-highest non-Drake entry (behind Zach Bryan’s Kacey Musgraves-featuring “I Remember Everything”). There’s not much about the song that’s still new or growing at this point, but with that kind of consistency across chart components, “Paint” might be every bit as much the single to beat this week as “Summer.”

IN THE MIX

Bad Bunny, Nadie Sabe Lo Que Va a Pasar Mañana (Rimas): Let’s not forget that one of the biggest pop artists in the world also released a 22-track new album on Friday (Oct. 13). Nadie Sabe Lo Que Va a Pasar Mañana is almost certainly aiming for a No. 1 debut on the Billboard 200, but a bow for one of its tracks atop the Hot 100 may be tougher, as Bad Bunny’s radio support and song sales have never been particularly robust, and he’s already ceded his spot atop the daily DSP charts back to Drake. That said, “Monaco” is the best-performing of its new songs so far, and may not debut too far away from the top spot – which the global superstar has still yet to capture on an unaccompanied solo single.

SZA, “Snooze” (Top Dawg Entertainment/RCA): Another one for the “so close, yet so far” file: Like “Cruel Summer,” SZA’s sublime ballad “Snooze” has taken a winding path to the Hot 100’s top five, and reached a No. 2 high the two weeks prior to Drake’s current onslaught. The song sits at No. 7 this week – blocked by her own Hot 100-topping Drake collab “Slime You Out,” among others – but holds for a second week atop Radio Songs, and may well at least return to the top five next week after some of the Drake entries fall out. But with the song’s video and Justin Bieber-featuring remix already out, there might not be another card left to play for SZA’s slow-burning hit to get over the top. Maybe she should release her own SOS Tour documentary.

[chartfreak]

Oct 18, 2023 16:57:10 GMT -5 cooper said:

Really unfortunate that cruel summer is looking like it’ll be #1. Guess that’s what we get when we have weaker charts, songs that don’t feel like true #1’s reaching #1.

What insanity is this?

[Ｓｏｕｎｄｃｌ🕤ｃｋ]

I mean, 'Cruel Summer' will be a very weak #1, but it's still a #1, it's not Taylor's fault we don't have big hits right now.

For me, charts are interesting and probably always will be, but I don't care that much about chart peaks anymore. J.Cole's 'No Role Modelz' peaked at #36, but it has more streams in the US than 99% of #1s...so yeah, if you ask me, I'd rather have a #36 song like 'No Role Modelz' over a #1 like 'First Person Shooter'.

[Taylor.]

she saw the billboard article

[ccchui]

The new live audio of Cruel Summer from the Eras Tour and LP Giobbi Remix is now in Youtube. So definitely Taylor's team is pushing it now.

[jayhawk1117]

I’m SICK she’s doing this all when the coast is clear lmao.

[Deleted]

Lmao, this week was already locked!

[cooper]

Oct 18, 2023 19:26:04 GMT -5 chartfreak said:

Oct 18, 2023 16:57:10 GMT -5 cooper said:

Really unfortunate that cruel summer is looking like it’ll be #1. Guess that’s what we get when we have weaker charts, songs that don’t feel like true #1’s reaching #1.

What insanity is this?

Insanity? Lmao the fact that she’s pulling out all the tricks to get this song to #1 despite points being historically low literally proves my point.

[85la]

^ Even before the discounts, alternate versions, etc., is was predicted to still possibly be #1.

[cooper]

Oct 18, 2023 19:59:16 GMT -5 85la said:

^ Even before the discounts, alternate versions, etc., is was predicted to still possibly be #1.

It was predicted to be a 2 way race with a 1 point difference, which is well within a margin of error. It certainly wasn’t locked like it is now lol.

[ificanthaveyou]

Anyone think Taylor will release Eras: The Live Album sometime in December once the movie has run its course. I’m sure people would kill for it on vinyl and streaming and could easily see it doing 200k if not more. Especially if she were to include the songs that got cut out of the movie.

[Rose "Payola" Nylund]

Oct 18, 2023 16:57:10 GMT -5 cooper said:

Really unfortunate that cruel summer is looking like it’ll be #1. Guess that’s what we get when we have weaker charts, songs that don’t feel like true #1’s reaching #1.

Lol

[korbel16]

a #1 for 7 consecutive albums, no ? … technically? 😅

[clsvltn]

Oct 18, 2023 20:27:53 GMT -5 ificanthaveyou said:

Anyone think Taylor will release Eras: The Live Album sometime in December once the movie has run its course. I’m sure people would kill for it on vinyl and streaming and could easily see it doing 200k if not more. Especially if she were to include the songs that got cut out of the movie.

I'm sure it has to be coming.  She would be crazy to let all that money sit on the shelves.  It would be a huge holiday seller as well.  But as long as it comes eventually lol

she can really milk this release though because then she can put it out on dvd and also just do a standalone release of the "Surprise" nightly songs. or even put that into theaters first.  The possibilities are endless for this really.

[clsvltn]

10/28 - Cruel Summer
11/4 - Drake IDGAF?
11/11 - 1989 track ?

I'm wondering if IDGAF could be #1. Maybe if they release a video or really keep pushing for it?

[ificanthaveyou]

Oct 18, 2023 20:39:10 GMT -5 clsvltn said:

10/28 - Cruel Summer
11/4 - Drake IDGAF?
11/11 - 1989 track ?

I'm wondering if IDGAF could be #1. Maybe if they release a video or really keep pushing for it?

Taylor has a plan I think for either a second week at #1 for CS or will release the 1989 (TV) single this Friday… she hasn’t moved this much in months so somethings brewing.

[mikeymonster]

I mean "Cruel Summer" was probably going #1 this week anyway, so Taylor & her team pushing it further just solidifies it.

I'm SOO happy!!! One of the best pop songs ever and I've never grown sick of it in 4 years, my love for it just continues to grow <3

[Az Paynter]

Oct 18, 2023 16:57:10 GMT -5 cooper said:

Really unfortunate that cruel summer is looking like it’ll be #1. Guess that’s what we get when we have weaker charts, songs that don’t feel like true #1’s reaching #1.

Yeah, real unfortunate that someone would see an opportunity and seize it. Because that's never happened before in the history of the charts, ever. If anything it's a wonder it took Taylor THIS long to finally lock it down when 'Cruel Summer' could have been #1 months ago.

[chartfreak]

Oct 18, 2023 19:53:00 GMT -5 cooper said:

Oct 18, 2023 19:26:04 GMT -5 chartfreak said:

What insanity is this?

Insanity? Lmao the fact that she’s pulling out all the tricks to get this song to #1 despite points being historically low literally proves my point.

We've been through this a hundred times, your late to the party.

[Baby Yoda Hot100Fan]

I'm pretty sure Taylor was just bidding the right time to make the final push for #1 in the Hot 100 for Cruel Summer. She had things ready to launch if the conditions where right. Which just happens to be now.

[cooper]

Oct 18, 2023 21:03:59 GMT -5 Az Paynter said:

Oct 18, 2023 16:57:10 GMT -5 cooper said:

Really unfortunate that cruel summer is looking like it’ll be #1. Guess that’s what we get when we have weaker charts, songs that don’t feel like true #1’s reaching #1.

Yeah, real unfortunate that someone would see an opportunity and seize it. Because that's never happened before in the history of the charts, ever. If anything it's a wonder it took Taylor THIS long to finally lock it down when 'Cruel Summer' could have been #1 months ago.

I mean, personally i’ve always condemned any type of chart trickery but I guess it’s so normalized now that people don’t bat an eye to it anymore (especially when their favs are involved like swift is). Lord knows the type of reactions we’d see in here if it were certain other artists

[cooper]

Oct 18, 2023 21:15:43 GMT -5 chartfreak said:

Oct 18, 2023 19:53:00 GMT -5 cooper said:

Insanity? Lmao the fact that she’s pulling out all the tricks to get this song to #1 despite points being historically low literally proves my point.

We've been through this a hundred times, your late to the party.

I’m not a chronically online pulse user, my apologies. 💀

[mikeymonster]

Oct 18, 2023 16:57:10 GMT -5 cooper said:

Really unfortunate that cruel summer is looking like it’ll be #1. Guess that’s what we get when we have weaker charts, songs that don’t feel like true #1’s reaching #1.    

Not really sure what you're getting at by saying CS wouldn't be a "true #1" if it goes #1 this week....

It's not like certain songs of the past few years (honestly no shade) like Jimin's "Like Crazy" (off sales alone) and BTS' "Butter" being #1 for 10 weeks while only peaking at #20 on radio and #4 on streaming songs....

Cruel Summer will be #1 in it's 16th week in the top 10. It will be #2 on radio (after peaking at #1 a few weeks ago), it just spent it's 10th week at #1 on pop airplay, it's still smashing on US Spotify, it'd be top 10 on Apple Music if it weren't for album bombs .... and thanks to the push, it's now occupying the top 4 on iTunes. 

If the song was out of radio top 5, no where to be seen on streaming or iTunes/other sales websites then I can understand your statement, but the song is still very well balanced and totally deserving of a week at #1. 

Denying the song's power is a little bit delusional, if you ask me 

To further my point, just take a look at some facts --

Billboard Hot 100 (23+ weeks)

29 - 71 - off - 49 - 45 - 47 - 39 - 18 - 13 - 7 - 9 - 8 - 6 - 4 - 3 - 4 - 4 - 5 - 4 - 5 - 6 - 4 - 3 - 9 -

------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Radio Songs (17+ weeks)

48 - 24 - 20 - 12 - 9 - 7 - 5 - 3 - 3 - 3 - 3 - 2 - 2 - 2 - 1 - 2 - 2 -


Streaming Songs (25+ weeks)

14 - 46 - off - 39 - 35 - 31 - 30 - 31 - 28 - 15 - 12 - 9 - 10 - 6 - 9 - 19 - 5 - 5 - 6 - 12 - 7 - 17 - 12 - 12 - 7 - 32 -


Digital Song Sales (19+ weeks)

27 - off - 32 - 10 - 13 - 19 - 12 - 10 - 14 - 15 - 3 - 8 - 8 - 14 - 17 - 21 - 11 - 9 - 13 - 13 -

------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Pop Airplay (18+ weeks)

33 - 24 - 19 - 14 - 8 - 4 - 1 - 1 - 1 - 1 - 1 - 1 - 3 - 2 - 1 - 1 - 1 - 1 -


Adult Pop Airplay (17+ weeks)

33 - 25 - 24 - 17 - 11 - 8 - 6 - 4 - 1 - 1 - 1 - 2 - 2 - 1 - 1 - 1 - 1 -


Adult Contemporary (13+ weeks)

27 - 19 - 14 - 10 - 9 - 8 - 8 - 8 - 8 - 7 - 7 - 7 - 5 -

and when the song does go #1 this week it will be #1 in digital sales, #2 in overall radio and top 10 on streaming. Are you going to argue that Doja's "Paint The Town Red" wasn't deserving of its first week at #1 when it was #2 on streaming, #13 on radio and #5 in sales? 

[cooper]

Oct 18, 2023 21:33:23 GMT -5 mikeymonster said:

Oct 18, 2023 16:57:10 GMT -5 cooper said:

Really unfortunate that cruel summer is looking like it’ll be #1. Guess that’s what we get when we have weaker charts, songs that don’t feel like true #1’s reaching #1.    

Not really sure what you're getting at by saying CS wouldn't be a "true #1" if it goes #1 this week....

It's not like certain songs of the past few years (honestly no shade) like Jimin's "Like Crazy" (off sales alone) and BTS' "Butter" being #1 for 10 weeks while only peaking at #20 on radio and #4 on streaming songs....

Cruel Summer will be #1 in it's 16th week in the top 10. It will be #2 on radio (after peaking at #1 a few weeks ago), it just spent it's 10th week at #1 on pop airplay, it's still smashing on US Spotify, it'd be top 10 on Apple Music if it weren't for album bombs .... and thanks to the push, it's now occupying the top 4 on iTunes. 

If the song was out of radio top 5, no where to be seen on streaming or iTunes/other sales websites then I can understand your statement, but the song is still very well balanced and totally deserving of a week at #1. 

Denying the song's power is a little bit delusional, if you ask me 

To further my point, just take a look at some facts --

Billboard Hot 100 (23+ weeks)

29 - 71 - off - 49 - 45 - 47 - 39 - 18 - 13 - 7 - 9 - 8 - 6 - 4 - 3 - 4 - 4 - 5 - 4 - 5 - 6 - 4 - 3 - 9 -

------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Radio Songs (17+ weeks)

48 - 24 - 20 - 12 - 9 - 7 - 5 - 3 - 3 - 3 - 3 - 2 - 2 - 2 - 1 - 2 - 2 -


Streaming Songs (25+ weeks)

14 - 46 - off - 39 - 35 - 31 - 30 - 31 - 28 - 15 - 12 - 9 - 10 - 6 - 9 - 19 - 5 - 5 - 6 - 12 - 7 - 17 - 12 - 12 - 7 - 32 -


Digital Song Sales (19+ weeks)

27 - off - 32 - 10 - 13 - 19 - 12 - 10 - 14 - 15 - 3 - 8 - 8 - 14 - 17 - 21 - 11 - 9 - 13 - 13 -

------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Pop Airplay (18+ weeks)

33 - 24 - 19 - 14 - 8 - 4 - 1 - 1 - 1 - 1 - 1 - 1 - 3 - 2 - 1 - 1 - 1 - 1 -


Adult Pop Airplay (17+ weeks)

33 - 25 - 24 - 17 - 11 - 8 - 6 - 4 - 1 - 1 - 1 - 2 - 2 - 1 - 1 - 1 - 1 -


Adult Contemporary (13+ weeks)

27 - 19 - 14 - 10 - 9 - 8 - 8 - 8 - 8 - 7 - 7 - 7 - 5 -

and when the song does go #1 this week it will be #1 in digital sales, #2 in overall radio and top 10 on streaming. Are you going to argue that Doja's "Paint The Town Red" wasn't deserving of its first week at #1 when it was #2 on streaming, #13 on radio and #5 in sales? 

I’m not denying that it’s a hit, it’s definitely a hit. Maybe the term I used “true #1” was a bit harsh, it’s just that I find it astonishing how an artist of Taylor’s magnitude had to pull out all the chart tricks to really secure this #1 for cruel summer when the points were already at an historically low point. If the points are already this low and the song can’t reach #1 organically does it actually deserve to be #1?

[imbondz]

Oct 18, 2023 19:26:04 GMT -5 chartfreak said:

Oct 18, 2023 16:57:10 GMT -5 cooper said:

Really unfortunate that cruel summer is looking like it’ll be #1. Guess that’s what we get when we have weaker charts, songs that don’t feel like true #1’s reaching #1.

What insanity is this?

lol

[Rose "Payola" Nylund]

Doing the bare minimum is now “all the chart tricks”. I wonder what the effort behind Anti-Hero would be considered as.

[theycallmedualian]

CS wont even be a weak #1 around this period since it spent like ~10 weeks now around 3-5th place and outlasted a bunch of 1-weeker #1s. also both winston and lip prediction already said it would go #1 even before the new remixes so you can seeth harder.

anyhow, swifty's biggest task ahead is to ensure 1989 TV has a song debut at #1 and then mass buy the second closest song the week after to give it a shot a 2 #s.

[theycallmedualian]

Oct 18, 2023 21:44:26 GMT -5 cooper said:

Oct 18, 2023 21:33:23 GMT -5 mikeymonster said:

Not really sure what you're getting at by saying CS wouldn't be a "true #1" if it goes #1 this week....

It's not like certain songs of the past few years (honestly no shade) like Jimin's "Like Crazy" (off sales alone) and BTS' "Butter" being #1 for 10 weeks while only peaking at #20 on radio and #4 on streaming songs....

Cruel Summer will be #1 in it's 16th week in the top 10. It will be #2 on radio (after peaking at #1 a few weeks ago), it just spent it's 10th week at #1 on pop airplay, it's still smashing on US Spotify, it'd be top 10 on Apple Music if it weren't for album bombs .... and thanks to the push, it's now occupying the top 4 on iTunes. 

If the song was out of radio top 5, no where to be seen on streaming or iTunes/other sales websites then I can understand your statement, but the song is still very well balanced and totally deserving of a week at #1. 

Denying the song's power is a little bit delusional, if you ask me 

To further my point, just take a look at some facts --

Billboard Hot 100 (23+ weeks)

29 - 71 - off - 49 - 45 - 47 - 39 - 18 - 13 - 7 - 9 - 8 - 6 - 4 - 3 - 4 - 4 - 5 - 4 - 5 - 6 - 4 - 3 - 9 -

------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Radio Songs (17+ weeks)

48 - 24 - 20 - 12 - 9 - 7 - 5 - 3 - 3 - 3 - 3 - 2 - 2 - 2 - 1 - 2 - 2 -


Streaming Songs (25+ weeks)

14 - 46 - off - 39 - 35 - 31 - 30 - 31 - 28 - 15 - 12 - 9 - 10 - 6 - 9 - 19 - 5 - 5 - 6 - 12 - 7 - 17 - 12 - 12 - 7 - 32 -


Digital Song Sales (19+ weeks)

27 - off - 32 - 10 - 13 - 19 - 12 - 10 - 14 - 15 - 3 - 8 - 8 - 14 - 17 - 21 - 11 - 9 - 13 - 13 -

------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Pop Airplay (18+ weeks)

33 - 24 - 19 - 14 - 8 - 4 - 1 - 1 - 1 - 1 - 1 - 1 - 3 - 2 - 1 - 1 - 1 - 1 -


Adult Pop Airplay (17+ weeks)

33 - 25 - 24 - 17 - 11 - 8 - 6 - 4 - 1 - 1 - 1 - 2 - 2 - 1 - 1 - 1 - 1 -


Adult Contemporary (13+ weeks)

27 - 19 - 14 - 10 - 9 - 8 - 8 - 8 - 8 - 7 - 7 - 7 - 5 -

and when the song does go #1 this week it will be #1 in digital sales, #2 in overall radio and top 10 on streaming. Are you going to argue that Doja's "Paint The Town Red" wasn't deserving of its first week at #1 when it was #2 on streaming, #13 on radio and #5 in sales? 

I’m not denying that it’s a hit, it’s definitely a hit. Maybe the term I used “true #1” was a bit harsh, it’s just that I find it astonishing how an artist of Taylor’s magnitude had to pull out all the chart tricks to really secure this #1 for cruel summer when the points were already at an historically low point. If the points are already this low and the song can’t reach #1 organically does it actually deserve to be #1?

you realize Cruel Summer is a 4 year old song that resurged due to her tour, not a brand new single, correct?
and that it has already gottten like 800million streams on Spotify before the surge, so a huge chunk of her stan wouldve been tired of the song, corret?
and reached radio #1 & pop radio #1 for 10 weeks correct?
and that most of her stans couldnt even buy the song from itunes since most of them had already purchased in 2019 & onwards, correct?
and that whatever TS is doing right now is not NEARLY effort as much as getting another A-list star like ariana grande to join in for a new remix, correct?
the fact that you have so much antipathy towards this is kind of amusing. 



besides, the two biggest chart predictors, Winston and Lip Prediction both have CS at #1 before the remixes dropped. you can go seethe elsewhere. 

[cooper]

Oct 18, 2023 22:05:01 GMT -5 Rose "Payola" Nylund said:

Doing the bare minimum is now “all the chart tricks”. I wonder what the effort behind Anti-Hero would be considered as.

Lmao only swifties and chart obsessed individuals would consider this the “bare minimum”. But if that’s how ya cope then whatever

[badrobot]

Oct 18, 2023 21:44:26 GMT -5 cooper said:

I’m not denying that it’s a hit, it’s definitely a hit. Maybe the term I used “true #1” was a bit harsh, it’s just that I find it astonishing how an artist of Taylor’s magnitude had to pull out all the chart tricks to really secure this #1 for cruel summer when the points were already at an historically low point. If the points are already this low and the song can’t reach #1 organically does it actually deserve to be #1?

So which song with fewer points should be #1 instead? Make sure to let Billboard know so they can fix this before it’s too late.