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Post by whaleblubber on Mar 3, 2024 16:01:06 GMT -5
Felt like trying my hand at projecting what the YE would end up looking like, so I took a page from rockgolf and assumed that all songs drop 5% each week until they fall out of the chart (with ~40 points). I was thinking of accounting for recurrency but it turned out that really messed up with the point totals, so just ignore Flowers being obviously way too high. [Edit: updated with projected YE placement] [Edit 2: forgot to check for debuts oops] {Week 20 projections}5 Lovin On Me 7304
6 Cruel Summer 5760
7 Lose Control 5469
8 Snooze 5191
9 I Remember Everything 5191
10 Greedy 5086
=== PROJECTED TOP 10 CUTOFF ===
15 Agora Hills 4447
16 Texas Hold 'Em 4431
17 Paint The Town Red 4343
18 Fast Car 4326
19 Carnival 4320
20 Last Night 4279
21 Beautiful Things 4277
22 Water 4151
23 Thinkin' Bout Me 4126
24 Stick Season 4091
25 Is It Over Now? (Taylor's Version) 3870
=== PROJECTED TOP 25 CUTOFF ===
33 Saturn 3057
38 Pretty Little Poison 2831
39 What Was I Made For? 2769
40 Rich Baby Daddy 2766
41 Redrum 2737
42 Flowers 2737
43 Houdini 2685
46 Vampire 2435
48 The Painter 2341
49 Truck Bed 2258
50 Need A Favor 2257
=== PROJECTED TOP 50 CUTOFF ===
52 Save Me 2205
54 Wild Ones 2159
58 La Diabla 2089
59 On My Mama 2056
60 Never Lose Me 2055
61 Yes, And? 2050
62 Where The Wild Things Are 2013
64 Dance The Night 1968
66 All I Want For Christmas Is You 1931
67 Feather 1904
69 Made For Me 1871
71 Rockin' Around The Christmas Tree 1827
72 World On Fire 1808
73 Everybody 1800
74 First Person Shooter 1796
77 Exes 1704
79 Jingle Bell Rock 1674
82 Surround Sound 1617
83 Last Christmas 1617
84 Lil Boo Thang 1586
85 White Horse 1582
86 Burn It Down 1574
87 Good Good 1558
88 Monaco 1525
89 IDGAF 1520
90 Fukumean 1500
91 A Holly Jolly Christmas 1470
92 Whatever She Wants 1408
93 Selfish 1390
94 You Broke My Heart 1387
96 My Love Mine All Mine 1338
99 Used To Be Young 1269
100 FTCU 1264
=== PROJECTED TOP 100 CUTOFF ===
XX Praise Jah In The Moonlight 1158
XX Man Made A Bar 1133
XX Harley Quinn 1113
RC Strangers 1104
RC It's The Most Wonderful Time... 1096
XX La Victima 1086
RC Let It Snow!... 1002
RC Feliz Navidad 988
RC Sleigh Ride 981
XX Standing Next To You 980
XX End Of Beginning 977
RC 500lbs 975
RC Underneath The Tree 960
XX One Of The Girls 946
RC Santa Tell Me 933
RC The Christmas Song 931
RC Santa Tell Me 933
RC The Christmas Song 931
XX Perro Negro 924
RC Get Him Back! 907
XX I Can Feel It 852
XX Soak City (Do It) 818
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Post by PositivityMaster48 on Mar 4, 2024 8:00:07 GMT -5
Week 15:
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Post by reputainbow on Mar 5, 2024 13:54:44 GMT -5
{Week 20}1 Cruel Summer (Taylor Swift) 5713
2 Lovin on Me (Jack Harlow) 5330
3 Paint the Town Red (Doja Cat) 4500
4 Snooze (SZA) 4489
5 I Remember Everything (Zach Bryan/Kacey Musgraves) 4480
6 Greedy (Tate McRae) 4300
7 Fast Car (Luke Combs) 3417
8 Lose Control (Teddy Swims) 3404
9 Last Night (Morgan Wallen) 3374
10 Water (Tyla) 3213
11 Thinkin' Bout Me (Morgan Wallen) 3190
12 Agora Hills (Doja Cat) 3154
13 Is It Over Now? (Taylor Swift) 3144
14 Rich Baby Daddy (Drake/Sexyy Red/SZA) 2571.4
15 Stick Season (Noah Kahan) 2566
16 What Was I Made For? (Billie Eilish) 2274.6
17 First Person Shooter (Drake/J. Cole) 2242.4
18 All I Want for Christmas Is You (Mariah Carey) 2234
19 Need a Favor (Jelly Roll) 2180
20 Vampire (Olivia Rodrigo) 2150
21 Rockin' Around the Christmas Tree (Brenda Lee) 2079
22 Flowers (Miley Cyrus) 2076
23 IDGAF (Drake/Yeat) 2050.8
24 Monaco (Bad Bunny) 2049.2
25 Pretty Little Poison (Warren Zeiders) 2016.8
26 White Horse (Chris Stapleton) 2007
27 Fukumean (Gunna) 1958
28 Lil Boo Thang (Paul Russell) 1957
29 Good Good (Usher/Summer Walker/21 Savage) 1954.2
30 Save Me (Jelly Roll/Lainey Wilson) 1908
31 Houdini (Dua Lipa) 1895.6
32 Dance the Night (Dua Lipa) 1857
33 Wild Ones (Jessie Murph/Jelly Roll) 1834
34 Jingle Bell Rock (Bobby Helms) 1817
35 On My Mama (Victoria Monet) 1784
36 Last Christmas (Wham!) 1735
37 World on Fire (Nate Smith) 1706.2
38 My Love Mine All Mine (Mitski) 1678
39 Truck Bed (HARDY) 1673.8
40 The Painter (Cody Johnson) 1629.6
41 A Holly Jolly Christmas (Burl Ives) 1595
42 Used to Be Young (Miley Cyrus) 1574.8
43 Beautiful Things (Benson Boone) 1555
44 Strangers (Kenya Grace) 1419.6
45 Everybody (Nicki Minaj/Lil Uzi Vert) 1414
46 Exes (Tate McRae) 1409.2
47 Burn It Down (Parker McCollum) 1406
48 Where the Wild Things Are (Luke Combs) 1396.2
49 Yes, And? (Ariana Grande) 1375
50 Harley Quinn (Fuerza Regida/Marshmello) 1351.6
51 La Diabla (Xavi) 1345.6
52 Standing Next to You (Jung Kook) 1339.4
53 Redrum (21 Savage) 1319
54 500lbs (Lil Tecca) 1298
55 You Broke My Heart (Drake) 1296.2
56 Surround Sound (JID/21 Savage/Baby Tate) 1296
57 FTCU (Nicki Minaj) 1276
58 Never Lose Me (Flo Milli) 1273.8
59 It's the Most Wonderful Time of the Year (Andy Williams) 1267
60 Perro Negro (Bad Bunny/Feid) 1236.8
61 Get Him Back! (Olivia Rodrigo) 1194.4
62 Feather (Sabrina Carpenter) 1162.4
63 Texas Hold 'Em (Beyonce) 1129
64 Let It Snow, Let It Snow, Let It Snow (Dean Martin) 1101
65 Virginia Beach (Drake) 1072.8
66 Feliz Navidad (Jose Feliciano) 1038
67 Sleigh Ride (The Ronettes) 1019
68 I Know ? (Travis Scott) 1018.8
69 Que Onda (Calle 24/Chino Pacas/Fuerza Regida) 1004
70 Now That We Don't Talk (Taylor Swift) 958.6
71 Underneath the Tree (Kelly Clarkson) 942
72 Carnival (Kanye West/Ty Dolla $ign/Rich the Kid/Playboi Carti) 933
73 Segun Quien (Maluma/Carin Leon) 921.6
74 The Christmas Song (Merry Christmas to You) (Nat King Cole) 921
75 Santa Tell Me (Ariana Grande) 916
76 La Victima (Xavi) 914
77 Great Gatsby (Rod Wave) 889.2
78 Qlona (Karol G/Peso Pluma) 887.4
79 Kill Bill (SZA) 876
80 Hey Driver (Zach Bryan/The War and Treaty) 864.4
81 Can't Catch Me Now (Olivia Rodrigo) 844.8
82 Bellakeo (Peso Pluma/Anitta) 832.4
83 Save Me the Trouble (Dan + Shay) 807
84 Made for Me (Muni Long) 801.6
85 Hiss (Megan Thee Stallion) 800.8
86 Bad Idea Right? (Olivia Rodrigo) 799.4
87 Man Made a Bar (Morgan Wallen/Eric Church) 774
88 Soak City (Do It) (310babii) 767.6
89 Slime You Out (Drake/SZA) 767.2
90 One of the Girls (The Weeknd/JENNIE/Lily Rose Depp) 767.2
91 Northern Attitude (Noah Kahan/Hozier) 762
92 El Amor De Su Vida (Grupo Frontera/Grupo Firme) 752
93 White Christmas (Bing Crosby) 750
94 Dial Drunk (Noah Kahan/Post Malone) 747
95 Christmas (Baby Please Come Home) (Darlene Love) 734
96 Different 'Round Here (Riley Green/Luke Combs) 734
97 Rich Men North of Richmond (Oliver Anthony Music) 724.4
98 Jingle Bells (Frank Sinatra) 706
99 Murder on the Dancefloor (Sophie Ellis-Bextor) 705.2
100 Can't Have Mine (Dylan Scott) 695.2 |
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Groovy
6x Platinum Member
Joined: October 2017
Posts: 6,719 
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Post by Groovy on Mar 5, 2024 15:12:56 GMT -5
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Post by whaleblubber on Mar 5, 2024 17:21:30 GMT -5
I tried another approach to projections to account for recurrency-- I think this makes more sense. {Week 20 projections}
6 Lovin On Me 7304
9 Cruel Summer 5299
10 Lose Control 5001
=== PROJECTED TOP 10 CUTOFF ===
12 I Remember Everything 4681
13 Greedy 4619
15 Texas Hold 'Em 4431
16 Carnival 4320
17 Beautiful Things 4277
19 Snooze 4036
20 Agora Hills 3935
21 Paint The Town Red 3883
22 Is It Over Now? (Taylor's Version) 3870
23 Fast Car 3810
24 Water 3693
25 Stick Season 3572
=== PROJECTED TOP 25 CUTOFF ===
32 Last Night 3076
33 Saturn 3057
35 Thinkin' Bout Me 2960
40 Redrum 2737
41 Houdini 2685
48 Pretty Little Poison 2312
49 Rich Baby Daddy 2302
50 What Was I Made For? 2248
=== PROJECTED TOP 50 CUTOFF ===
58 La Diabla 2089
59 Never Lose Me 2055
60 Yes, And? 2050
62 Where The Wild Things Are 2013
66 All I Want For Christmas Is You 1931
67 Vampire 1920
68 Feather 1904
69 The Painter 1875
70 Made For Me 1871
71 Rockin' Around The Christmas Tree 1827
72 Everybody 1800
73 First Person Shooter 1796
75 Truck Bed 1748
76 Need A Favor 1742
77 Exes 1704
78 Wild Ones 1690
79 Save Me 1689
80 Jingle Bell Rock 1674
81 Surround Sound 1617
82 Last Christmas 1617
83 Lil Boo Thang 1586
84 White Horse 1582
85 Burn It Down 1574
86 Good Good 1558
87 On My Mama 1540
88 Flowers 1534
89 Monaco 1525
90 IDGAF 1520
91 Fukumean 1500
92 A Holly Jolly Christmas 1470
93 Dance The Night 1453
94 Whatever She Wants 1408
95 Selfish 1390
96 You Broke My Heart 1387
97 World On Fire 1351
98 My Love Mine All Mine 1338
99 Used To Be Young 1269
100 FTCU 1264
=== PROJECTED TOP 100 CUTOFF ===
XX Praise Jah In The Moonlight 1158
XX Man Made A Bar 1133
XX Harley Quinn 1113
XX La Victima 1086
XX Standing Next To You 980
XX End Of Beginning 977
XX One Of The Girls 946
XX Perro Negro 924
XX I Can Feel It 852
XX Soak City (Do It) 818
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rockgolf
2x Platinum Member
Pop music fanatic since the days of 7" 45 RPM records.
Joined: August 2018
Posts: 2,126
Pronouns: he/him/his
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Post by rockgolf on Mar 7, 2024 13:22:35 GMT -5
whaleblubber I think your projections are far too conservative. I cannot mathematically come up with any scenario wherein either Cruel Summer or Loving On Me could be displaced by 10 other existing or upcoming songs in the number of remaining weeks for the Billboard year. They have a top ten lock, minimally, and probably easily in the top 5.
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eagle27
Charting
Joined: July 2023
Posts: 190
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Post by eagle27 on Mar 7, 2024 14:17:26 GMT -5
Lovin On Me and Cruel Summer will be Top 2. I just can’t picture any current songs outlasting them long enough to take over.
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Post by Baby Yoda Hot100Fan on Mar 7, 2024 15:39:32 GMT -5
^Cruel Summer has 9 more weeks before it reaches 52 weeks in the Hot 100. Whether any song can eventually catch it after that will depend on when it goes recurrent. After that, there are several competing songs that still have quite a few number of weeks remaining before they get to 52 weeks that could close the gap pretty quickly. Keep in mind Flowers was #2 in last Year-End Hot 100 with just over 9k points with 3 weeks that weren't counted due to the 49 week year. By my estimation, Cruel Summer will have just under 5k points towards this year's year end. So it is nowhere near a guarantee.
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Post by whaleblubber on Mar 7, 2024 21:30:06 GMT -5
whaleblubber I think your projections are far too conservative. I cannot mathematically come up with any scenario wherein either Cruel Summer or Loving On Me could be displaced by 10 other existing or upcoming songs in the number of remaining weeks for the Billboard year. They have a top ten lock, minimally, and probably easily in the top 5. I think so too-- I might shift the cutoffs a bit |
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Groovy
6x Platinum Member
Joined: October 2017
Posts: 6,719
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Post by Groovy on Mar 8, 2024 9:09:13 GMT -5
If Cruel Summer does end at 2, it will continue the streak of YE number 2s being either a repeat or repeating in the following YE that has been going on since 2020.
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Groovy
6x Platinum Member
Joined: October 2017
Posts: 6,719
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Post by Groovy on Mar 8, 2024 14:07:02 GMT -5
If Cruel Summer does end at 2, it will continue the streak of YE number 2s being either a repeat or repeating in the following YE that has been going on since 2020. Adding on this, this has also been the case for number 1s. |
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Post by whaleblubber on Mar 9, 2024 19:01:34 GMT -5
Week 21 - March 16, 2024
LOCKED FOR TOP 25 (2 songs)
*Taylor Swift - Cruel Summer
Jack Harlow - Lovin On Me
LOCKED FOR TOP 50 (11 songs)
*Doja Cat - Paint The Town Red
*SZA - Snooze
*Zach Bryan feat. Kacey Musgraves - I Remember Everything
Tate McRae - Greedy
*Morgan Wallen - Last Night
*Luke Combs - Fast Car
*Morgan Wallen - Thinkin' Bout Me
Tyla - Water
Doja Cat - Agora Hills
Taylor Swift - Is It Over Now? (Taylor's Version) [From The Vault]
Teddy Swims - Lose Control
LOCKED FOR TOP 100 (29 songs)
*Mariah Carey - All I Want For Christmas Is You
*Brenda Lee - Rockin' Around The Christmas Tree
*Bobby Helms - Jingle Bell Rock
*Wham! - Last Christmas
*Burl Ives - A Holly Jolly Christmas
Drake feat. Sexyy Red & SZA - Rich Baby Daddy
Drake feat. J. Cole - First Person Shooter
Paul Russell - Lil Boo Thang
Drake feat. Yeat - IDGAF
Chris Stapleton - White Horse
Miley Cyrus - Used To Be Young
*Gunna - Fukumean
Bad Bunny - Monaco
Noah Kahan - Stick Season
*Jelly Roll - Need A Favor
*Billie Eilish - What Was I Made For?
Usher, Summer Walker & 21 Savage - Good Good
*Olivia Rodrigo - Vampire
Mitski - My Love Mine All Mine
Jelly Roll feat. Lainey Wilson - Save Me
Warren Zeiders - Pretty Little Poison
*Miley Cyrus - Flowers
Dua Lipa - Houdini
Victoria Monét - On My Mama
Jessie Murph feat. Jelly Roll - Wild Ones
*Dua Lipa - Dance The Night
Nate Smith - World On Fire
HARDY - Truck Bed
Cody Johnson - The Painter
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Post by puwrpler04 on Mar 10, 2024 16:38:04 GMT -5
Billboard Year End Artists 2024
Week 21
125,000 Is Cutoff
Drake 3 (Rich Baby Daddy,First Person Shooter,IDGAF)
Jelly Roll 3 (Need A Favor,Save Me,Wild Ones)
Doja Cat 2 (Paint The Town Red,Agora Hills)
Dua Lipa 2 (Houdini,Dance The Night)
Morgan Wallen 2 (Last Night,Thinkin Bout Me)
SZA 2 (Snooze,Rich Baby Daddy)
Taylor Swift 2 (Cruel Summer,Is It Over Now?)
21 Savage 1 (Good Good)
Bad Bunny 1 (Monaco)
Billie Eilish 1 (What Was I Made For?)
Bobby Helms 1 (Jingle Bell Rock)
Brenda Lee 1 (Rockin Around The Christmas Tree)
Burl Ives 1 (A Holly Jolly Christmas)
Chris Stapleton 1 (White Horse)
+1 Cody Johnson 1 (The Painter)
Gunna 1 (Fukumean)
Hardy 1 (Truck Bed)
Jack Harlow 1 (Lovin On Me)
Jesse Murph 1 (Wild Ones)
J Cole 1 (First Person Shooter)
Kacey Musgraves 1 (I Remember Everything)
Lainey Wilson 1 (Save Me)
Luke Combs 1 (Fast Car)
Mariah Carey 1 (All I Want For Christmas Is You)
Miley Cyrus 1 (Used To Be Young)
Mitski 1 (My Love Mine All Mine)
Nate Smith 1 (World On Fire)
Noah Kahan 1 (Stick Season)
Olivia Rodrigo 1 (Vampire)
Paul Russell 1 (Lil Bo Thang)
Sexxy Red 1 (Rich Baby Daddy)
Summer Walker 1 (Good Good)
Tate McRae 1 (Greedy)
Teddy Swims 1 (Lose Control)
Tyla 1 (Water)
Usher 1 (Good Good)
Victoria Monet 1 (On My Mama)
Warren Zeiders 1 (Pretty Little Poison)
WHAM! 1 (Last Christmas)
Yeat 1 (IDGAF)
Zach Bryan 1 (I Remember Everything)
Locked Next Week
Benson Boone
Nicki Minaj
Lil Uzi Vert
Tate McRae x2
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neel
Gold Member
Joined: February 2023
Posts: 570
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Post by neel on Mar 11, 2024 17:45:19 GMT -5
So what songs do you guys think have a great chance of making the YE Top 10 so far? It's pretty likely Lovin on Me and Cruel Summer finish in the Top 3, what else?
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eagle27
Charting
Joined: July 2023
Posts: 190
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Post by eagle27 on Mar 11, 2024 19:10:56 GMT -5
Lose Control, Beautiful Things, and I Remmeber Everything seem very likely to make it. I would predict Greedy, Texas Holdem, Carnival, Snooze, and one more to round out the top 10.
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𝓲𝓽'𝓼.𝓰𝓿
Diamond Member
Unsteady Weirdo
𝓪 𝓽𝓸𝓻𝓽𝓾𝓻𝓮𝓭 𝓹𝓸𝓮𝓽
Joined: December 2016
Posts: 10,809
My Charts
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Post by 𝓲𝓽'𝓼.𝓰𝓿 on Mar 11, 2024 19:41:04 GMT -5
Lose Control, Beautiful Things, and I Remmeber Everything seem very likely to make it. I would predict Greedy, Texas Holdem, Carnival, Snooze, and one more to round out the top 10. While it won't be surprising on the possibility of "Snooze" doubling up on the Year-End Top 10, what's going to be more impressive that it might have a good chance of being the first re-entry in the Billboard Hot 100 Year-End to repeat at the same spot (#9) |
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jasper0102
2x Platinum Member
I CAN GET BY THE DAYS JUST FINE BUT THE NIGHTS
Joined: May 2022
Posts: 2,845
Pronouns: he/him
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Post by jasper0102 on Mar 12, 2024 4:58:51 GMT -5
Lose Control, Beautiful Things, and I Remmeber Everything seem very likely to make it. I would predict Greedy, Texas Holdem, Carnival, Snooze, and one more to round out the top 10. Ngl i won’t be surprised if the one song to round it out is Stick Season. I can see that one lasting all year tbh. |
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Post by whaleblubber on Mar 12, 2024 6:57:33 GMT -5
New formula! {Week 21 projections}1 Lovin On Me 8289
3 Lose Control 7252
4 Cruel Summer 6285
5 Greedy 6063
6 I Remember Everything 5914
7 Carnival 5627
8 Beautiful Things 5316
9 Agora Hills 5184
10 Is It Over Now? (Taylor's Version) 5011
11 Texas Hold 'Em 4794
12 Fast Car 4755
13 Water 4685
14 Snooze 4655
15 Stick Season 4543
16 Paint The Town Red 4298
21 Redrum 3791
23 Houdini 3632
24 Last Night 3536
26 Thinkin' Bout Me 3300
33 Saturn 3015
35 Where The Wild Things Are 2903
36 Made For Me 2847
37 Never Lose Me 2830
38 Pretty Little Poison 2775
40 Feather 2672
41 Yes, And? 2652
42 Whatever She Wants 2602
43 La Diabla 2520
45 What Was I Made For? 2451
46 Rich Baby Daddy 2440
47 World On Fire 2240
48 Truck Bed 2239
49 End Of Beginning 2227
50 Exes 2201
51 The Painter 2164
53 Vampire 2139
53 Save Me 2138
54 Everybody 2116
56 Wild Ones 2064
57 Surround Sound 2059
60 Selfish 2003
63 All I Want For Christmas Is You 1931
66 Need A Favor 1882
69 Rockin' Around The Christmas Tree 1827
70 You Broke My Heart 1814
71 First Person Shooter 1796
72 On My Mama 1754
76 Jingle Bell Rock 1674
77 Man Made A Bar 1661
78 Flowers 1637
79 Last Christmas 1617
80 Praise Jah In The Moonlight 1601
81 Lil Boo Thang 1586
82 White Horse 1582
83 Good Good 1558
84 FTCU 1554
85 Monaco 1525
86 IDGAF 1520
87 Fukumean 1500
88 A Holly Jolly Christmas 1470
89 Fe!n 1458
91 Dance The Night 1386
92 I Can Feel It 1365
93 My Love Mine All Mine 1338
94 One Of The Girls 1320
95 Burn It Down 1315
96 Soak City (Do It) 1294
97 Harley Quinn 1290
98 Used To Be Young 1269
XX La Victima 1163
XX 23 1147
XX Yeah Glo! 1106
RC Strangers 1104
RC It's The Most Wonderful Time... 1096
XX Get In With Me 1075
XX Breathe 1037
XX Standing Next To You 1022
XX Perro Negro 1007
RC Let It Snow! Let It Snow! Let It Snow! 1002 |
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Post by Baby Yoda Hot100Fan on Mar 12, 2024 12:17:19 GMT -5
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Post by reputainbow on Mar 12, 2024 14:05:25 GMT -5
{Week 21}1 Cruel Summer (Taylor Swift) 5898
2 Lovin on Me (Jack Harlow) 5641
3 I Remember Everything (Zach Bryan/Kacey Musgraves) 4719
4 Snooze (SZA) 4710
5 Paint the Town Red (Doja Cat) 4632
6 Greedy (Tate McRae) 4557
7 Lose Control (Teddy Swims) 3733
8 Fast Car (Luke Combs) 3583
9 Last Night (Morgan Wallen) 3536
10 Water (Tyla) 3367
11 Agora Hills (Doja Cat) 3357
12 Thinkin' Bout Me (Morgan Wallen) 3340
13 Is It Over Now? (Taylor Swift) 3302
14 Stick Season (Noah Kahan) 2744
15 Rich Baby Daddy (Drake/Sexyy Red/SZA) 2673.4
16 What Was I Made For? (Billie Eilish) 2388.6
17 Need a Favor (Jelly Roll) 2277
18 Vampire (Olivia Rodrigo) 2258
19 First Person Shooter (Drake/J. Cole) 2242.4
20 All I Want for Christmas Is You (Mariah Carey) 2234
21 Flowers (Miley Cyrus) 2216
22 Pretty Little Poison (Warren Zeiders) 2150.8
23 Rockin' Around the Christmas Tree (Brenda Lee) 2079
24 IDGAF (Drake/Yeat) 2050.8
25 Monaco (Bad Bunny) 2049.2
26 Houdini (Dua Lipa) 2033.6
27 Save Me (Jelly Roll/Lainey Wilson) 2018
28 White Horse (Chris Stapleton) 2007
29 Fukumean (Gunna) 1958
30 Lil Boo Thang (Paul Russell) 1957
31 Good Good (Usher/Summer Walker/21 Savage) 1954.2
32 Wild Ones (Jessie Murph/Jelly Roll) 1946
33 On My Mama (Victoria Monet) 1885
34 Dance the Night (Dua Lipa) 1857
35 Beautiful Things (Benson Boone) 1848
36 Jingle Bell Rock (Bobby Helms) 1817
37 Truck Bed (HARDY) 1797.8
38 World on Fire (Nate Smith) 1795.4
39 The Painter (Cody Johnson) 1751.6
40 Last Christmas (Wham!) 1735
41 My Love Mine All Mine (Mitski) 1678
42 A Holly Jolly Christmas (Burl Ives) 1595
43 Used to Be Young (Miley Cyrus) 1574.8
44 Where the Wild Things Are (Luke Combs) 1526.2
45 Exes (Tate McRae) 1509.2
46 Everybody (Nicki Minaj/Lil Uzi Vert) 1509
47 Burn It Down (Parker McCollum) 1505
48 Yes, And? (Ariana Grande) 1495
49 Redrum (21 Savage) 1493
50 La Diabla (Xavi) 1461.6
51 Harley Quinn (Fuerza Regida/Marshmello) 1424
52 Strangers (Kenya Grace) 1419.6
53 Texas Hold 'Em (Beyonce) 1404
54 Never Lose Me (Flo Milli) 1401.8
55 Standing Next to You (Jung Kook) 1401.4
56 Surround Sound (JID/21 Savage/Baby Tate) 1392
57 You Broke My Heart (Drake) 1383
58 FTCU (Nicki Minaj) 1355.6
59 Carnival (Kanye West/Ty Dolla $ign/Rich the Kid/Playboi Carti) 1333
60 Perro Negro (Bad Bunny/Feid) 1300.4
61 500lbs (Lil Tecca) 1298
62 Feather (Sabrina Carpenter) 1288.4
63 It's the Most Wonderful Time of the Year (Andy Williams) 1267
64 Get Him Back! (Olivia Rodrigo) 1194.4
65 Let It Snow, Let It Snow, Let It Snow (Dean Martin) 1101
66 Virginia Beach (Drake) 1072.8
67 Feliz Navidad (Jose Feliciano) 1038
68 Sleigh Ride (The Ronettes) 1019
69 I Know ? (Travis Scott) 1018.8
70 Que Onda (Calle 24/Chino Pacas/Fuerza Regida) 1004
71 La Victima (Xavi) 994.4
72 Now That We Don't Talk (Taylor Swift) 958.6
73 Made for Me (Muni Long) 943.6
74 Underneath the Tree (Kelly Clarkson) 942
75 Segun Quien (Maluma/Carin Leon) 921.6
76 The Christmas Song (Merry Christmas to You) (Nat King Cole) 921
77 Santa Tell Me (Ariana Grande) 916
78 Bellakeo (Peso Pluma/Anitta) 898.4
79 Great Gatsby (Rod Wave) 889.2
80 Qlona (Karol G/Peso Pluma) 887.4
81 Kill Bill (SZA) 876
82 Man Made a Bar (Morgan Wallen/Eric Church) 872
83 Hey Driver (Zach Bryan/The War and Treaty) 864.4
84 Hiss (Megan Thee Stallion) 855.6
85 One of the Girls (The Weeknd/JENNIE/Lily Rose Depp) 853.2
86 Soak City (Do It) (310babii) 852.8
87 Can't Catch Me Now (Olivia Rodrigo) 844.8
88 Save Me the Trouble (Dan + Shay) 807
89 Bad Idea Right? (Olivia Rodrigo) 799.4
90 Murder on the Dancefloor (Sophie Ellis-Bextor) 781.6
91 Slime You Out (Drake/SZA) 767.2
92 I Can Feel It (Kane Brown) 766.8
93 Northern Attitude (Noah Kahan/Hozier) 762
94 El Amor De Su Vida (Grupo Frontera/Grupo Firme) 752
95 Née-Nah (21 Savage/Travis Scott/Metro Boomin) 751.8
96 White Christmas (Bing Crosby) 750
97 23 (Chayce Beckham) 748.8
98 Igual Que Un Ángel (Kali Uchis/Peso Pluma) 747.6
99 Dial Drunk (Noah Kahan/Post Malone) 747
100 Selfish (Justin Timberlake) 738 |
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rockgolf
2x Platinum Member
Pop music fanatic since the days of 7" 45 RPM records.
Joined: August 2018
Posts: 2,126
Pronouns: he/him/his
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Post by rockgolf on Mar 12, 2024 15:13:40 GMT -5
I missed the Mar 9 update, so the new points are the average of both weeks on the March 16 update: And the projected year-end order placing, which may actually improve accuracy with the 2 week average: Proj.
Year
end | Song | Artist | YE
Est
Pts | | 1 | Lovin On Me | Jack Harlow | 8921 | | 2 | Cruel Summer | Taylor Swift | 7923 | | 3 | Lose Control | Teddy Swims | 7025 | | 4 | Greedy | Tate McRae | 6747 | | 5 | Snooze | SZA | 6745 | | 6 | I Remember Everything | Zach Bryan ft. Kacey Musgraves | 6672 | | 7 | Carnival | ¥$: Kanye West & Ty Dolla $ign
ft. Rich The Kid & Playboi Carti | 5489 | | 8 | Paint The Town Red | Doja Cat | 5374 | | 9 | Agora Hills | Doja Cat | 5348 | | 10 | Texas Hold 'Em | Beyonce | 5127 | | 11 | Last Night | Morgan Wallen | 5113 | | 12 | Fast Car | Luke Combs | 5037 | | 13 | Water | Tyla | 4876 | | 14 | Thinkin' Bout Me | Morgan Wallen | 4832 | | 15 | Beautiful Things | Benson Boone | 4800 | | 16 | Is It Over Now?
(Taylor's Version) [From The Vault] | Taylor Swift | 4786 | | 17 | Stick Season | Noah Kahan | 4284 | | 18 | Pretty Little Poison | Warren Zeiders | 3371 | | 19 | Flowers | Miley Cyrus | 3346 | | 20 | Rich Baby Daddy | Drake ft. Sexyy Red & SZA | 3191 | | 21 | What Was I Made For? | Billie Eilish | 3162 | | 22 | Houdini | Dua Lipa | 2976 | | 23 | Redrum | 21 Savage | 2955 | | 24 | Vampire | Olivia Rodrigo | 2820 | | 25 | Save Me | Jelly Roll With Lainey Wilson | 2602 | | 26 | The Painter | Cody Johnson | 2486 | | 27 | Wild Ones | Jessie Murph & Jelly Roll | 2414 | | 28 | Need A Favor | Jelly Roll | 2412 | | 29 | First Person Shooter | Drake ft. J. Cole | 2369 | | 30 | Truck Bed | HARDY | 2281 | | 31 | Made For Me | Muni Long | 2276 | | 32 | Never Lose Me | Flo Milli | 2273 | | 33 | Saturn | SZA | 2210 | | 34 | La Diabla | Xavi | 2199 | | 35 | All I Want For Christmas Is You | Mariah Carey | 2162 | | 36 | White Horse | Chris Stapleton | 2145 | | 37 | Where The Wild Things Are | Luke Combs | 2143 | | 38 | Yes, And? | Ariana Grande | 2133 | | 39 | Lil Boo Thang | Paul Russell | 2102 | | 40 | Fukumean | Gunna | 2099 | | 41 | Good Good | Usher, Summer Walker & 21 Savage | 2079 | | 42 | Feather | Sabrina Carpenter | 2072 | | 43 | On My Mama | Victoria Monet | 2044 | | 44 | Monaco | Bad Bunny | 2023 | | 45 | Rockin' Around The Christmas Tree | Brenda Lee | 2012 | | 46 | IDGAF | Drake ft. Yeat | 2009 | | 47 | Dance The Night | Dua Lipa | 1975 | | 48 | World On Fire | Nate Smith | 1874 | | 49 | Everybody | Nicki Minaj ft. Lil Uzi Vert | 1838 | | 50 | My Love Mine All Mine | Mitski | 1796 | | 51 | Jingle Bell Rock | Bobby Helms | 1694 | | 52 | Used To Be Young | Miley Cyrus | 1689 | | 53 | Exes | Tate McRae | 1673 | | 54 | Last Christmas | Wham! | 1586 | | 55 | Whatever She Wants | Bryson Tiller | 1527 | | 56 | Fast Car | Tracy Chapman | 1513 | | 57 | Surround Sound | JID ft. 21 Savage & Baby Tate | 1488 | | 58 | Strangers | Kenya Grace | 1439 | | 59 | A Holly Jolly Christmas | Burl Ives | 1435 | | 60 | FTCU | Nicki Minaj | 1425 | | 61 | You Broke My Heart | Drake | 1388 | | 62 | Harley Quinn | Fuerza Regida & Marshmello | 1364 | | 63 | Burn It Down | Parker McCollum | 1341 | | 64 | Selfish | Justin Timberlake | 1233 | | 65 | It's The Most Wonderful Time Of The Year | Andy Williams | 1230 | | 66 | 500lbs | Lil Tecca | 1222 | | 67 | Get Him Back! | Olivia Rodrigo | 1157 | | 68 | Let It Snow, Let It Snow, Let It Snow! | Dean Martin | 1121 | | 69 | I Know ? | Travis Scott | 1103 | | 70 | Sleigh Ride | The Ronettes | 1094 | | 71 | Standing Next To You | Jung Kook | 1086 | | 72 | Perro Negro | Bad Bunny & Feid | 1074 | | 73 | Feliz Navidad | Jose Feliciano | 1071 | | 74 | End Of Beginning | Djo | 1023 | | 75 | La Victima | Xavi | 999 | | 76 | Praise Jah In The Moonlight | YG Marley | 998 | | 77 | Underneath The Tree | Kelly Clarkson | 967 | | 78 | The Christmas Song
(Merry Christmas To You) | Nat "King" Cole | 961 | | 79 | Virginia Beach | Drake | 957 | | 80 | Santa Tell Me | Ariana Grande | 956 | | 81 | Kill Bill | SZA | 940 | | 82 | Now That We Don't Talk
(Taylor's Version) [From The Vault] | Taylor Swift | 877 | | 83 | Man Made A Bar | Morgan Wallen ft. Eric Church | 861 | | 84 | One Of The Girls | The Weeknd, JENNIE & Lily Rose Depp | 825 | | 85 | Bellakeo | Peso Pluma & Anitta | 805 | | 86 | Dial Drunk | Noah Kahan With Post Malone | 797 | | 87 | White Christmas | Bing Crosby With Ken Darby Singers
& John Scott Trotter & His Orchestra | 797 | | 88 | Hiss | Megan Thee Stallion | 795 | | 89 | Christmas (Baby Please Come Home) | Darlene Love | 792 | | 90 | Jingle Bells | Frank Sinatra With The Orchestra
& Chorus Of Gordon Jenkins | 780 | | 91 | Murder On The Dancefloor | Sophie Ellis-Bextor | 772 | | 92 | Qlona | Karol G & Peso Pluma | 768 | | 93 | Can't Catch Me Now | Olivia Rodrigo | 738 | | 94 | Deck The Halls | Nat King Cole | 731 | | 95 | Nee-nah | 21 Savage, Travis Scott & Metro Boomin | 729 | | 96 | Bad Idea Right? | Olivia Rodrigo | 721 | | 97 | It's Beginning To Look A Lot Like Christmas | Michael Buble | 718 | | 98 | Great Gatsby | Rod Wave | 717 | | 99 | Igual Que Un Angel | Kali Uchis & Peso Pluma | 716 | | 100 | Blue Christmas | Elvis Presley | 714 |
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Post by PositivityMaster48 on Mar 13, 2024 11:53:48 GMT -5
Week 16:
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Post by PositivityMaster48 on Mar 14, 2024 17:53:48 GMT -5
Week 17:
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avamaxstan
Platinum Member
Joined: January 2019
Posts: 1,362
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Post by avamaxstan on Mar 15, 2024 10:37:41 GMT -5
The 2024 year-end #2 being a song released in 2019 and made a single in 2023 - would be gag worthy. And would be year-end #1 if its peak run wasn't split by the tracking period.
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rockgolf
2x Platinum Member
Pop music fanatic since the days of 7" 45 RPM records.
Joined: August 2018
Posts: 2,126
Pronouns: he/him/his
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Post by rockgolf on Mar 15, 2024 14:51:23 GMT -5
The 2024 year-end #2 being a song released in 2019 and made a single in 2023 - would be gag worthy. And would be year-end #1 if its peak run wasn't split by the tracking period. I can't see how but only because of Last Night. |
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avamaxstan
Platinum Member
Joined: January 2019
Posts: 1,362
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Post by avamaxstan on Mar 15, 2024 18:00:30 GMT -5
The 2024 year-end #2 being a song released in 2019 and made a single in 2023 - would be gag worthy. And would be year-end #1 if its peak run wasn't split by the tracking period. I can't see how but only because of Last Night. Not 2023 but for this year. |
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Post by whaleblubber on Mar 16, 2024 17:50:14 GMT -5
Week 22 - March 23, 2024
LOCKED FOR TOP 25 (2 songs)
*Taylor Swift - Cruel Summer
Jack Harlow - Lovin On Me
LOCKED FOR TOP 50 (12 songs)
*Doja Cat - Paint The Town Red
*SZA - Snooze
*Zach Bryan feat. Kacey Musgraves - I Remember Everything
Tate McRae - Greedy
*Morgan Wallen - Last Night
*Luke Combs - Fast Car
*Morgan Wallen - Thinkin' Bout Me
Tyla - Water
Doja Cat - Agora Hills
Taylor Swift - Is It Over Now? (Taylor's Version) [From The Vault]
Teddy Swims - Lose Control
Noah Kahan - Stick Season
LOCKED FOR TOP 100 (31 songs)
*Mariah Carey - All I Want For Christmas Is You
*Brenda Lee - Rockin' Around The Christmas Tree
*Bobby Helms - Jingle Bell Rock
*Wham! - Last Christmas
*Burl Ives - A Holly Jolly Christmas
Drake feat. Sexyy Red & SZA - Rich Baby Daddy
Drake feat. J. Cole - First Person Shooter
Paul Russell - Lil Boo Thang
Drake feat. Yeat - IDGAF
Chris Stapleton - White Horse
Miley Cyrus - Used To Be Young
*Gunna - Fukumean
Bad Bunny - Monaco
*Jelly Roll - Need A Favor
*Billie Eilish - What Was I Made For?
Usher, Summer Walker & 21 Savage - Good Good
*Olivia Rodrigo - Vampire
Mitski - My Love Mine All Mine
Jelly Roll feat. Lainey Wilson - Save Me
Warren Zeiders - Pretty Little Poison
*Miley Cyrus - Flowers
Dua Lipa - Houdini
Victoria Monét - On My Mama
Jessie Murph feat. Jelly Roll - Wild Ones
*Dua Lipa - Dance The Night
Nate Smith - World On Fire
HARDY - Truck Bed
Cody Johnson - The Painter
Benson Boone - Beautiful Things
Nicki Minaj feat. Lil Uzi Vert - Everybody
Tate McRae - Exes
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Post by puwrpler04 on Mar 17, 2024 14:38:31 GMT -5
Billboard Year End Artists 2024
Week 22
125,000 Is Cutoff
Drake 3 (Rich Baby Daddy,First Person Shooter,IDGAF)
Jelly Roll 3 (Need A Favor,Save Me,Wild Ones)
Doja Cat 2 (Paint The Town Red,Agora Hills)
Dua Lipa 2 (Houdini,Dance The Night)
Morgan Wallen 2 (Last Night,Thinkin Bout Me)
SZA 2 (Snooze,Rich Baby Daddy)
+1 Tate McRae 2 (Greedy,Exes)
Taylor Swift 2 (Cruel Summer,Is It Over Now?)
21 Savage 1 (Good Good)
Bad Bunny 1 (Monaco)
+1 Benson Boone 1 (Beautiful Things)
Billie Eilish 1 (What Was I Made For?)
Bobby Helms 1 (Jingle Bell Rock)
Brenda Lee 1 (Rockin Around The Christmas Tree)
Burl Ives 1 (A Holly Jolly Christmas)
Chris Stapleton 1 (White Horse)
Cody Johnson 1 (The Painter)
Gunna 1 (Fukumean)
Hardy 1 (Truck Bed)
Jack Harlow 1 (Lovin On Me)
Jesse Murph 1 (Wild Ones)
J Cole 1 (First Person Shooter)
Kacey Musgraves 1 (I Remember Everything)
Lainey Wilson 1 (Save Me)
+1 Lil Uzi Vert 1 (Everybody)
Luke Combs 1 (Fast Car)
Mariah Carey 1 (All I Want For Christmas Is You)
Miley Cyrus 1 (Used To Be Young)
Mitski 1 (My Love Mine All Mine)
Nate Smith 1 (World On Fire)
+1 Nicki Minaj 1 (Everybody)
Noah Kahan 1 (Stick Season)
Olivia Rodrigo 1 (Vampire)
Paul Russell 1 (Lil Bo Thang)
Sexxy Red 1 (Rich Baby Daddy)
Summer Walker 1 (Good Good)
Teddy Swims 1 (Lose Control)
Tyla 1 (Water)
Usher 1 (Good Good)
Victoria Monet 1 (On My Mama)
Warren Zeiders 1 (Pretty Little Poison)
WHAM! 1 (Last Christmas)
Yeat 1 (IDGAF)
Zach Bryan 1 (I Remember Everything)
Locked Next Week
Ariana Grande (Yes And?)
Luke Combs x2 (Where The Wild Things Are)
21 Savage x2 (Redrum)
Xavi (La Diabla)
Parker McCollum (Burn It Down)
Flo Milli (Never Lose Me)
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jasper0102
2x Platinum Member
I CAN GET BY THE DAYS JUST FINE BUT THE NIGHTS
Joined: May 2022
Posts: 2,845
Pronouns: he/him
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Post by jasper0102 on Mar 18, 2024 6:09:12 GMT -5
So lemme do a little thing, here are the songs that i think have chances for YE top 10.
Will make it
Lovin On Me - Has either 4 to 5 weeks to clinch. Even if radio freefalls it will lock before it even falls out of the top 10.
Cruel Summer - Just needs to get 52 weeks atleast.
I Remember Everything - Needs 10-11 weeks, which will be easy with the streaming stability it still has.
Greedy - Also needs 10-11 weeks. I’m not as confident in it’s chances but i think it will get there if the radio doesn’t drop it.
Lose Control - Needs about 10 weeks, radio is still gaining and it’s still strong on the other 2 channels. As long as it doesn’t freefall it will comfortably get there by summer.
Will maybe make it
Snooze - It needs as many weeks as IRE, Greedy, and Lose Control do but it isn’t as strong and also has to worry about super-recurrency. I can see it getting knocked out by an album bomb just short enough to miss.
Beautiful Things - This one is performing similarly to Lose Control but doesn’t have the advantage of debuting on the charts earlier, and has less radio at the moment. I think it depends on streaming stability and how much more radio will boost it. If it gets both it will make it but as of now i’m not sure.
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Post by PositivityMaster48 on Mar 18, 2024 19:06:23 GMT -5
Week 18!
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