Choco
Diamond Member
james dean daydream
Joined: February 2009
Posts: 27,977 
My Charts
Pronouns: he/him
|
Post by Choco on Jan 14, 2024 16:57:55 GMT -5
I'd say two days is enough data to guesstimate where the rest of the week is gonna go. Unless they somehow beat historic data and trends Ariana will barely miss #1 and the Lil Nas X song won't even crack top 50.
|
|
|
|
Post by omieethehomieee on Jan 14, 2024 17:49:04 GMT -5
Now I’m genuinely trying to think of album where the lead single didn’t well but the second or third single smashed?
Edit : Actually Britney with In the Zone , MATM flopped and Toxic smashed
|
|
bonicap
Charting
Joined: October 2022
Posts: 112
|
Post by bonicap on Jan 14, 2024 17:53:22 GMT -5
Ariana has physical sales on her website, right? She could get 30k-50k sales and easily beat Jack for #1. I think the #2 prediction is far too early. It's not like she needs something crazy like 100k. Surely Ariana stans can pull off 30-50k sales, you'd think?! Vinyls don't ship this week. I don't know about the CDs but 30-50k sales is too much I think. |
|
bonicap
Charting
Joined: October 2022
Posts: 112
|
Post by bonicap on Jan 14, 2024 17:54:41 GMT -5
Now I’m genuinely trying to think of album where the lead single didn’t well but the second or third single smashed? Edit : Actually Britney with In the Zone , MATM flopped and Toxic smashed Doja's last album. Nowadays with TikTok anything can go viral even if you have previously flopped. |
|
chartfreak
Diamond Member
Enter your message here...
Joined: December 2005
Posts: 10,443
|
Post by chartfreak on Jan 14, 2024 18:04:24 GMT -5
Now I’m genuinely trying to think of album where the lead single didn’t well but the second or third single smashed? Edit : Actually Britney with In the Zone , MATM flopped and Toxic smashed There are many examples. Especially if you are posting in regards to AG. |
|
|
|
Post by omieethehomieee on Jan 14, 2024 18:04:47 GMT -5
Oh yeah i definitely forgot about that . Attention deserved more tbh Now I’m genuinely trying to think of album where the lead single didn’t well but the second or third single smashed? Edit : Actually Britney with In the Zone , MATM flopped and Toxic smashed Doja's last album. Nowadays with TikTok anything can go viral even if you have previously flopped. |
|
hughster1
Charting
Joined: September 2010
Posts: 237
|
Post by hughster1 on Jan 14, 2024 18:07:07 GMT -5
Now I’m genuinely trying to think of album where the lead single didn’t well but the second or third single smashed? Edit : Actually Britney with In the Zone , MATM flopped and Toxic smashed Arguably "The Emancipation of Mimi" - "It's Like That only got to #16, and then "We Belong Together" spent 14 weeks at the top. Of course this was almost 20 years ago now, so I'm sure there's other examples. |
|
|
|
Post by omieethehomieee on Jan 14, 2024 18:07:09 GMT -5
Ariana ? I don’t think she has had a flop song since Focus and that was almost 9 years ago Now I’m genuinely trying to think of album where the lead single didn’t well but the second or third single smashed? Edit : Actually Britney with In the Zone , MATM flopped and Toxic smashed There are many examples. Especially if you are posting in regards to AG. |
|
chartfreak
Diamond Member
Enter your message here...
Joined: December 2005
Posts: 10,443
|
Post by chartfreak on Jan 14, 2024 18:09:36 GMT -5
Ariana ? I don’t think she has had a flop song since Focus and that was almost 9 years ago There are many examples. Especially if you are posting in regards to AG. OK, so you're speaking of Lil Nas X. |
|
hughster1
Charting
Joined: September 2010
Posts: 237
|
Post by hughster1 on Jan 14, 2024 18:14:58 GMT -5
There's also the thing where what is intended to be the first single from a new album flops, or at least underperforms, so they leave it off the album and then a new song that is received better becomes the official "first" single. That's what happened with "Focus," although that at least made the top ten.
|
|
clsvltn
Platinum Member
Joined: October 2019
Posts: 1,481
|
Post by clsvltn on Jan 14, 2024 18:24:54 GMT -5
I just went back to re-vist "Focus" and I like it... I think maybe more than Yes and lol
also, I never knew that was Jamie Foxx on the chorus
|
|
hughster1
Charting
Joined: September 2010
Posts: 237
|
Post by hughster1 on Jan 14, 2024 19:16:37 GMT -5
Does Yes and? interpolate Vogue or Express Yourself? Sound verrrry similar, especially Vogue. Had that been mentioned at all? Just listened for the first time, and it does sound a lot like "Vogue," especially the intro, the chorus, and the spoken bridge, although I don't think it's enough to be deemed an interpolation. The video is a little like parts of "Express Yourself." The verses remind me of Natalie Cole's cover of Bruce Springsteen's "Pink Cadillac." It also has very much a Stock-Aiken-Waterman early Kylie feel. All in all, definitely influenced by late 80's dance pop. |
|
|
|
Post by Baby Yoda Hot100Fan on Jan 14, 2024 20:31:11 GMT -5
Ariana has physical sales on her website, right? She could get 30k-50k sales and easily beat Jack for #1. I think the #2 prediction is far too early. It's not like she needs something crazy like 100k. Surely Ariana stans can pull off 30-50k sales, you'd think?! Vinyls don't ship this week. I don't know about the CDs but 30-50k sales is too much I think. Neither do CDs. No shipping date is given and is only currently a pre-order. Unless iTunes sales are that much during the week. |
|
eagle27
Charting
Joined: July 2023
Posts: 190
|
Post by eagle27 on Jan 14, 2024 20:43:04 GMT -5
Heartless was the lead and did alright but obviously Blinding Lights made the era huge.
If her team is reading this make an R&B pop banger with The Weeknd and Doja and release it ASAP. Maybe promote Yes, And? in Europe still but focus on the second single. And then solo 3rd single.
|
|
elementd5
4x Platinum Member
Joined: June 2006
Posts: 4,099
|
Post by elementd5 on Jan 14, 2024 21:13:19 GMT -5
The industry is in an awkward place if we’re screaming flop / underperformance just because a song by a previous hit maker doesn’t debut at #1 or break streaming records. With Ariana, specifically, Top 10 hits with longevity should definitely still be considered successful and not necessarily cause for alarm.
|
|
Future Captain
4x Platinum Member
hi, i'm the visual representation of untreated mental illnesses
Joined: September 2014
Posts: 4,022
My Charts
|
Post by Future Captain on Jan 14, 2024 21:20:04 GMT -5
while not hitting #1 would be disappointing, i would only really begin to raise the alarm if yes, and? fell off the top 10 in like two or three weeks.
|
|
|
|
Post by Fears in the Fire on Jan 14, 2024 22:12:49 GMT -5
while not hitting #1 would be disappointing, i would only really begin to raise the alarm if yes, and? fell off the top 10 in like two or three weeks. I definitely expect it to |
|
Ｓｏｕｎｄｃｌ🕤ｃｋ
Diamond Member
Joined: August 2017
Posts: 11,063
|
Post by Ｓｏｕｎｄｃｌ🕤ｃｋ on Jan 14, 2024 23:04:02 GMT -5
while not hitting #1 would be disappointing, i would only really begin to raise the alarm if yes, and? fell off the top 10 in like two or three weeks. I definitely expect it to people thought the same about vampire too. |
|
fridayteenage
5x Platinum Member
Shake it Off
Joined: April 2008
Posts: 5,493
|
Post by fridayteenage on Jan 14, 2024 23:19:17 GMT -5
jack back ahead of ariana on apple
|
|
|
|
Post by Push The Button on Jan 15, 2024 0:56:08 GMT -5
Now I’m genuinely trying to think of album where the lead single didn’t well but the second or third single smashed? Edit : Actually Britney with In the Zone , MATM flopped and Toxic smashed That happened a lot to Pop stars in the early 2000s. Dirrty -> Beautiful MATM -> Toxic Sweetest Sin -> With You It’s Like That -> We Belong Together Like I Love You -> Cry Me a River What You Waiting For? -> Rich Girl Don’t Tell Me -> My Happy Ending Breakaway -> Since U Been Gone Stupid Girls -> U+Ur Hand |
|
|
|
Post by parrotparent on Jan 15, 2024 2:20:01 GMT -5
Now I’m genuinely trying to think of album where the lead single didn’t well but the second or third single smashed? Edit : Actually Britney with In the Zone , MATM flopped and Toxic smashed Arguably "The Emancipation of Mimi" - "It's Like That only got to #16, and then "We Belong Together" spent 14 weeks at the top. Of course this was almost 20 years ago now, so I'm sure there's other examples. I was thinking about one of"the greatest comebacks of all time," Lil Nas X definitely isn't. But Mariah's Mimi was one of them. |
|
|
|
Post by theycallmedualian on Jan 15, 2024 5:23:49 GMT -5
So ‘yes and’ is now behind ‘lovin’ on AM and is only doing 250k more streams on us Spotify. #1 debut is joever for Ariana I suppose?
|
|
Choco
Diamond Member
james dean daydream
Joined: February 2009
Posts: 27,977
My Charts
Pronouns: he/him
|
Post by Choco on Jan 15, 2024 6:35:21 GMT -5
So ‘yes and’ is now behind ‘lovin’ on AM and is only doing 250k more streams on us Spotify. #1 debut is joever for Ariana I suppose? Will probably come down to sales. |
|
musiclife
Platinum Member
Joined: November 2022
Posts: 1,809
|
Post by musiclife on Jan 15, 2024 6:50:01 GMT -5
Ariana has physical sales on her website, right? She could get 30k-50k sales and easily beat Jack for #1. I think the #2 prediction is far too early. It's not like she needs something crazy like 100k. Surely Ariana stans can pull off 30-50k sales, you'd think?! But those don't ship until the 9th? Wouldn't those only count once they're shipped. No? Or is that the ship date for the vinyl only? |
|
velaxti
2x Platinum Member
Joined: March 2013
Posts: 2,014
|
Post by velaxti on Jan 15, 2024 7:03:12 GMT -5
The industry is in an awkward place if we’re screaming flop / underperformance just because a song by a previous hit maker doesn’t debut at #1 or break streaming records. With Ariana, specifically, Top 10 hits with longevity should definitely still be considered successful and not necessarily cause for alarm. It's true. Having hit songs like The Way, Break Free, Love Me Harder, Side To Side, Into You, Dangerous Woman, etc. makes for a fun, lengthy, promising pop star career (or at least that's how it was seen in the past). I don't know what happened recently, but I've seen people calling Break My Soul and Vampire "disasters" as well. And saying that Super Freaky Girl was not a hit as well. I don't get this way of thinking at all. And plus it always causes drama as well because I'm like "I'm glad to see X song doing well" and then people inevitably come along saying "What? It's a flop". I think the disagreement is because some people measure a hit song against the artist's biggest hits (and also fame, hype, career trajectory) whilst I measure them in a vacuum, so I think that's where the disagreements can come from. But I think the latter way is flawed for numerous reasons. |
|
elementd5
4x Platinum Member
Joined: June 2006
Posts: 4,099
|
Post by elementd5 on Jan 15, 2024 8:37:03 GMT -5
Does anyone have the data on let’s say the last five new songs / in their original run that took at least 10 weeks to hit #1 on the Hot 100?
|
|
Ｓｏｕｎｄｃｌ🕤ｃｋ
Diamond Member
Joined: August 2017
Posts: 11,063
|
Post by Ｓｏｕｎｄｃｌ🕤ｃｋ on Jan 15, 2024 10:05:46 GMT -5
Does anyone have the data on let’s say the last five new songs / in their original run that took at least 10 weeks to hit #1 on the Hot 100? SZA - Kill Bill 19th week (2023) Lizzo - About Damn Time 14th week (2022) *Glass Animals - Heat Waves 59th week (2022) Lil Nas X & Jack Harlow - Industry Baby 12th week (2021) 24k Golden & Iann Dior - Mood 10th week (2020) Jawsh 685 & Jason Derulo - Savage Love 17th week (2020) * Idk if this counts, because it charted 6 months after the release. |
|
|
|
Post by Baby Yoda Hot100Fan on Jan 15, 2024 10:30:41 GMT -5
Ariana has physical sales on her website, right? She could get 30k-50k sales and easily beat Jack for #1. I think the #2 prediction is far too early. It's not like she needs something crazy like 100k. Surely Ariana stans can pull off 30-50k sales, you'd think?! But those don't ship until the 9th? Wouldn't those only count once they're shipped. No? Or is that the ship date for the vinyl only? The vinyls are slated to be shipped by Feb 8th. In the case of CDs, no date is given. |
|
jenglisbe
Diamond Member
Joined: January 2005
Posts: 35,611
|
Post by jenglisbe on Jan 15, 2024 10:38:32 GMT -5
Now I’m genuinely trying to think of album where the lead single didn’t well but the second or third single smashed? Edit : Actually Britney with In the Zone , MATM flopped and Toxic smashed That happened a lot to Pop stars in the early 2000s. Dirrty -> Beautiful MATM -> Toxic Sweetest Sin -> With You It’s Like That -> We Belong Together Like I Love You -> Cry Me a River What You Waiting For? -> Rich Girl Don’t Tell Me -> My Happy Ending Breakaway -> Since U Been Gone Stupid Girls -> U+Ur Hand Not sure how some of these are examples. "It's Like That" did really well considering where Mariah was at in her career; it went top 10 in downloads and top 10 in some airplay formats, and it peaked at #16 only because its peaks didn't align. It gave Mariah momentum and helped set up "We Belong Together," and I don't see how it was a flop considering Glitter. In terms of actual impact, it was actually her biggest single with her as a lead artist since "Heartbreaker" over 5 years prior. "Breakaway" definitely wasn't a flop. It made #6 on the Hot 100, which was higher than "Miss Independent" and certainly a good peak coming off the last two singles from her debut. It really helped set that era up as a multi-format success. An interesting era that could apply is Usher's Raymond v Raymond era. "Papers" flopped, and then some other singles underperformed before "OMG" then went to #1 on the Hot 100. |
|
gs
Charting
Joined: October 2019
Posts: 452
|
Post by gs on Jan 15, 2024 10:44:31 GMT -5
Here it comes
|
|
