HITS 4/26: #1 Taylor Swift 2.6M/1.92M pure, #5 Pearl Jam 60k

[WolfSpear]

Just the fact it's aiming at the 700k range with SEA is beyond crazy, but how much in physical sales will she carry forward? Taylor's typically more front loaded in sales than streams so it boggles my mind.

I'll say she goes 1.5m in sales and barely clears the marker with 2.1-2 million in SPS. 2.5 seems out of reach... for now.

[nickd]

So considering this album has 31 track, it's gonna have Morgan Wallen level longevity on the charts, right? If not more... especially since her albun tracks tend to perform really well

[Caviar]

1.4M pure
1.6 SPS first day sales

[HEADOFTHEPACK]

She eclipsed her previous biggest sales week in a single day? Holy shit lol

[pnobelysk]

Does anyone know 25s first day sales ?

[Push The Button]

Britney held the female record of 1.3 million albums in a week for 15 years. Taylor just did more than that in a day.

I don't even know what to say.

[Push The Button]

Apr 20, 2024 22:10:25 GMT -5 pnobelysk said:

Does anyone know 25s first day sales ?

It did 900k first day on iTunes alone.

www.billboard.com/pro/adele-25-nsync-no-strings-attached-nielsen-soundscan-billboard-charts/

[Angel]

Apr 20, 2024 22:12:24 GMT -5 Push The Button said:

Britney held the female record of 1.3 million albums in a week for 15 years. Taylor just did more than that in a day.

I don't even know what to say.

What's even wilder was seeing her come close three times at what we used to think was her peak and watching Britney fans use it against her 😭 I can't believe it

[suburbandreams]

Apr 20, 2024 22:10:25 GMT -5 pnobelysk said:

Does anyone know 25s first day sales ?

First 3 days were 2.3 million. 
 
Very unlikely for Taylor to break Adele's record since most of  her sales are presales that likely shipped and were counted. 

But Taylor's number are equally if not more impressive due to the change in sales environment. No one other than Taylor is breaching a million were they were a few million album sellers during the digital/cd age.

[Spidey]

Incredible first day sales.

[wavey.]

Amazing really. The consistency is #real.

[pnobelysk]

Apr 20, 2024 22:18:54 GMT -5 suburbandreams said:

Apr 20, 2024 22:10:25 GMT -5 pnobelysk said:

Does anyone know 25s first day sales ?

First 3 days were 2.3 million. 
 
Very unlikely for Taylor to break Adele's record since most of  her sales are presales that likely shipped and were counted. 

But Taylor's number are equally if not more impressive due to the change in sales environment. No one other than Taylor is breaching a million were they were a few million album sellers during the digital/cd age.

I agree with everything you said. I do feel 30 could have gotten it there if they released it one holiday season earlier and did slightly more promo but oh well

[WolfSpear]

I think Adele had already ran out steam by the time 30 came out. The long delays and trying to repeat the same formula didn’t help, but hey, they’re two different artists… two different audiences.

[suburbandreams]

Apr 20, 2024 23:02:49 GMT -5 pnobelysk said:

Apr 20, 2024 22:18:54 GMT -5 suburbandreams said:

First 3 days were 2.3 million. 
 
Very unlikely for Taylor to break Adele's record since most of  her sales are presales that likely shipped and were counted. 

But Taylor's number are equally if not more impressive due to the change in sales environment. No one other than Taylor is breaching a million were they were a few million album sellers during the digital/cd age.

I agree with everything you said. I do feel 30 could have gotten it there if they released it one holiday season earlier and did slightly more promo but oh well

No way that 30 could have hit 3 million. But if she skipped the prerelease , good chance she could have hit 1 million first week.

Adele was really hurt for taking such a long break especially when it was the transition between digital sales and streaming . For all the big digital sellers (Taylor and Beyonce) it took at least one straight to streaming album for them to adjust.

[pnobelysk]

Apr 21, 2024 1:38:37 GMT -5 suburbandreams said:

Apr 20, 2024 23:02:49 GMT -5 pnobelysk said:

I agree with everything you said. I do feel 30 could have gotten it there if they released it one holiday season earlier and did slightly more promo but oh well

No way that 30 could have hit 3 million. But if she skipped the prerelease , good chance she could have hit 1 million first week.

Adele was really hurt for taking such a long break especially when it was the transition between digital sales and streaming . For all the big digital sellers (Taylor and Beyonce) it took at least one straight to streaming album for them to adjust.

Deff my bad I meant reach 1 million

[slw84]

The legend jumped out...whew. Look at the material!

[Deleted]

30 should have been released when it was ready, e.g. spring 2020. The pandemic was largely irrelevant to music consumption. I know the excuse was “but touring!!!” but lolol we know how that worked out for her. 4.5 years of a Spring 2020 gap would have been an acceptable time for her to still release and not have lost too much momentum. It was right at the very end of the window where she could avoid a lot of that. I think maybe 2m opening with that release date, given EOM was such a Hello sized smash. Of course she wouldn’t have touched 25, that’s unrealistic. 700k was just a horrific drop though.

[Enigma.]

Apr 20, 2024 22:18:54 GMT -5 suburbandreams said:

Apr 20, 2024 22:10:25 GMT -5 pnobelysk said:

Does anyone know 25s first day sales ?

First 3 days were 2.3 million. 
 
Very unlikely for Taylor to break Adele's record since most of  her sales are presales that likely shipped and were counted. 

But Taylor's number are equally if not more impressive due to the change in sales environment. No one other than Taylor is breaching a million were they were a few million album sellers during the digital/cd age.

Then again it's is easier to stay on high levels because of the same people streaming the same songs over and over again. So the debuts might not be as high as before the longevity is definitely on another level (like Morgan has demonstrated with his two snoozefests I mean albums).

[pnobelysk]

Apr 21, 2024 12:49:29 GMT -5 @pikandru said:

30 should have been released when it was ready, e.g. spring 2020. The pandemic was largely irrelevant to music consumption. I know the excuse was “but touring!!!” but lolol we know how that worked out for her. 4.5 years of a Spring 2020 gap would have been an acceptable time for her to still release and not have lost too much momentum. It was right at the very end of the window where she could avoid a lot of that. I think maybe 2m opening with that release date, given EOM was such a Hello sized smash. Of course she wouldn’t have touched 25, that’s unrealistic. 700k was just a horrific drop though.

Adele has a fan base with a wide age range. I don’t think many older people would’ve gone to the store to buy 30 in spring 2020. That + the holidays are very kind to her

[suburbandreams]

Apr 21, 2024 14:22:36 GMT -5 pnobelysk said:

Apr 21, 2024 12:49:29 GMT -5 @pikandru said:

30 should have been released when it was ready, e.g. spring 2020. The pandemic was largely irrelevant to music consumption. I know the excuse was “but touring!!!” but lolol we know how that worked out for her. 4.5 years of a Spring 2020 gap would have been an acceptable time for her to still release and not have lost too much momentum. It was right at the very end of the window where she could avoid a lot of that. I think maybe 2m opening with that release date, given EOM was such a Hello sized smash. Of course she wouldn’t have touched 25, that’s unrealistic. 700k was just a horrific drop though.

Adele has a fan base with a wide age range. I don’t think many older people would’ve gone to the store to buy 30 in spring 2020. That + the holidays are very kind to her

Adele was a big itunes seller and itunes died between 25 and 30 . She has a fanbase but they largely aren't the collector type but those who actually listened to their music on cds or on itunes. Her team incorrectly thought that 30 CDs/ Vinyl would be hot Christmas presents but nowadays that's a thing for artists with bigger cults of personality than Adele.

Her pure sales were still great , it was the streaming performance of 30 that was a little lackluster. EOM was a massive hit but it could have took away from the urgency to listen to the whole album especially with the album not being that different from 21 and 25 (it was still lovely). The lack of longetivity in 30 streams showed that there was in alot of interest in Adele but the music didn't click enough to compete with her back catalgoue.

[Positive Tension]

Adele simply waited too long to release 30. Although 25 was undeniably massive, its singles (except "Hello") didn't have the impact/longevity of most of 21's. The era also felt pretty short compared to 21. Though it would've been hard to avoid how front-loaded it was, I think she could've kept the momentum going a bit longer. She probably should've released in 2019.

[pokepikalem]

Apr 21, 2024 17:31:09 GMT -5 Positive Tension said:

Adele simply waited too long to release 30. Although 25 was undeniably massive, its singles (except "Hello") didn't have the impact/longevity of most of 21's. The era also felt pretty short compared to 21. Though it would've been hard to avoid how front-loaded it was, I think she could've kept the momentum going a bit longer. She probably should've released in 2019.

I totally agree as a fan.

From the artist’s pov, prob she’s at a different life stage and wanted to focus on her son instead of having a mega successful career (it doesn’t feel she’s ambitious to begin with).

[Choco]

She kept delaying due to the pandemic and sure in hindsight it might have hurt but the lead up to her album was still huge. Her number only seems weak because Taylor has eclipsed it easily since but save for her 30 is still the biggest debut we've had in years. I still think she just stopped promoting too soon. And her refusal to promote the more upbeat stuff to radio hurt even more. You don't do a catchy earworm like Can I Get It and then pay it complete and total dust.

[Envoirment]

Apr 21, 2024 17:31:09 GMT -5 Positive Tension said:

Adele simply waited too long to release 30. Although 25 was undeniably massive, its singles (except "Hello") didn't have the impact/longevity of most of 21's. The era also felt pretty short compared to 21. Though it would've been hard to avoid how front-loaded it was, I think she could've kept the momentum going a bit longer. She probably should've released in 2019.

The reason for that was that they weren't available on streaming services until they were given an offical impact date. "When We Were Young" wasn't released to streaming services until it was announced as the second single in January 2016. By which time the album had already sold huges amounts of copies. The album itself wasn't released to streaming until June 2016. I would argue "When We Were Young" definitely had an impact as big as the singles from 21 and has become a classic in its own right. It's a shame we don't have updated US certifications for Adele's songs/albums. 25 has proven itself to stream really great - on par or even better than 21 in some aspects.

In terms of 30 I agree they waited too long, but they couldn't have forseen the pandemic happening. It was meant to release in Q4 of 2020. By the time they did release 30 Adele was already kind of over the album. I believe they would've pushed 1-2 more singles (the label likely pushed Adele to record/include "Can I get It" to be a single for summer 2022). But the whole mess with her Vegas residency happened which is what I think was the ultimate nail in the coffin. Had the vegas residency gone as expected, they would've likely pushed 2 more singles ("I Drink Wine" in the spring - she performed it at the BRITS and the video had been recorded months ago & "Can I Get It" in the summer).

Instead Adele seeemed to want to have as low as a profile as possible after that happened. Likely to try and ride out some of the backlash, but also she was likely completely done with the album by that point unfortunately... It was quite heartbreaking after waiting so long for her to have another era for it to be completely done after ~3 months.

Since then her Vegas residency has gone really well and her dates in August in Munich will likely go just as well. I think one of the things that hurts Adele's numbers is her lack of touring as well. She's only done 1 world tour vs Taylor's 6. Touring is a great way to build a really loyal fanbase which help with the first week numbers and long-term streaming of the album.

I'm hopeful that Adele's next era will be able to do well (likely won't be until 2025-2026 at the earliest if she doesn't have another baby by then) with a large opening.

But back to Taylor, 1.6 million SPS is amazing first day! Guarenteed to do 2 million now with just the streaming for the rest of the week. I expect she'll do between 2.3-2.5 million overall? Unless her and her team decide to try to do things midweek like drop a deluxe version with more tracks or drop the actual double album physical in store? Perhaps dropping some prices etc. I wouldn't be surprised if Taylor somehow does 3 million at this point.

[Choco]

^Good post. And it did remind of how sad it was to get such a boring era after Adele took her huge break. I get that for some people the music is more than enough but honestly it was boring to follow after her album release week. She just kept performing the same single or even worse, random album tracks that never got much individual traction... and then she vanished for months and when the residency gave her some hype again she... dropped an already months old video for a song that wasn't going to radio. She was very much over it and had no intention of pushing the era outside of the concerts.

[Deleted]

All I will say on 25’s opening sales week is that it is by far and without question the single most impressive achievement of all time in the U.S. music industry, and nothing before or after comes close. I think some forget we were already in the beginning of the streaming era and album sales declared “dead” in 2015. Yet at the same time, we weren’t anywhere near in the thick of what streaming looks like today where it was possible for streaming to contribute to album sales much. 25 did it basically on pure sales.

Shattering the opening week sales record and going well over 3m should have been impossible. And not in a “well ok, but anything is kind of possible…” way. No, I mean it should have actually been impossible at that point in time. As an avid follower of box office as well, it was also more impressive than any box office achievement I’ve seen. And there are some crazy ones. It was absurd honestly.

[theycallmedualian]

ok, even as a diehard Swiftard, i MUST vent a bit on how STUPID she is for serving this slow ballad crap when the WHOLE WORLD is looking forward for her next project. TTPD is the stuff you'd surprise drop during a hiatus or something. totally not what you'd serve at the HEIGHT of your commercial peak. the opportunity she has right now is literally once in a generation, and shes squandering it by doing this homemade project with jack antonoff in his basement. what a waste.

Will the TTPD projct be hugely successful still? yes. but not nearly as successful as it wouldve been had she served something faster and more basic. just the average poppy soulless bop. not sharing her own personal nightmares written into word salads. I'm willing to bet she's not getting these accolades now because of this terrible move:


• 10 week+ #1 on the hot100. dont see how its possible with how slow fortnight is. it's not very radio friendly either so good luck charting high for long. what a shame, it was projected to debut at 75M freakin streams initially.

• IFPI #1 single. fortnight was the most streamed song EVER worldwide in a single day, as reported by chartmaster. well i doubt it'll go the distance and finish at #1 by the end of the year given how slow it is.

• 30+ country #1 single. same thing as above. though she could get into the 20s range given the strong first day numbers.

• 30+ countries #1 album. this could still happen i guess given even midnights finished at 28 or 29 and it is already the record. but TTPD did start out #1 on 45 countries on spotify and dropped to 41 already, so it'll definitely miss the 40-countries mark.

• 10-15 weeks+ #1 on the BB200. with how much the stream is dropping in the states, i bet it'll fail to beat her personal best of 11 weeks at the top of the albums chart.

she'll still have the BB200 YE #1, IFPI #1 album, album with the biggest global debut week numbers beating 25 (most likely), Hot 100 #1 artist, IFPI #1 artist, Billboard #1 artist, climbs up to ATOD #1 artist and such, but the other big ones ive mentioned above? those are basically free for the taking at her current popularity, and she's wasting it all.

[BlueSwan]

Adele will probably be fine. Her level of success in the 10's were probably unsustainable anyway. She basically has her own market cornered with little competition and the advantage to only dropping every 4-5 years is that you never have problems with oversaturation. Of course she runs a small risk of just being forgotten, but I doubt that. She fairly beloved and I strongly feel that people will still check for Adele in 2026 or whenever she releases her next album. Million selling debut weeks are probably a thing of the past for her though, but less will do.

As for Taylor, I maintain that this is the breaking point. I have never seen so much negativity around her as I do right now - not even when Reputation dropped or when "Me!" dropped. Yes, the opening will be ridiculous, nobody is arguing that it won't, but longevity could be very problematic.

[musiclife]

Apr 22, 2024 3:38:59 GMT -5 theycallmedualian said:

ok, even as a diehard Swiftard, i MUST vent a bit on how STUPID she is for serving this slow ballad crap when the WHOLE WORLD is looking forward for her next project. TTPD is the stuff you'd surprise drop during a hiatus or something. totally not what you'd serve at the HEIGHT of your commercial peak. the opportunity she has right now is literally once in a generation, and shes squandering it by doing this homemade project with jack antonoff in his basement. what a waste.

Will the TTPD projct be hugely successful still? yes. but not nearly as successful as it wouldve been had she served something faster and more basic. just the average poppy soulless bop. not sharing her own personal nightmares written into word salads. I'm willing to bet she's not getting these accolades now because of this terrible move:


• 10 week+ #1 on the hot100. dont see how its possible with how slow fortnight is. it's not very radio friendly either so good luck charting high for long. what a shame, it was projected to debut at 75M freakin streams initially.

• IFPI #1 single. fortnight was the most streamed song EVER worldwide in a single day, as reported by chartmaster. well i doubt it'll go the distance and finish at #1 by the end of the year given how slow it is.

• 30+ country #1 single. same thing as above. though she could get into the 20s range given the strong first day numbers.

• 30+ countries #1 album. this could still happen i guess given even midnights finished at 28 or 29 and it is already the record. but TTPD did start out #1 on 45 countries on spotify and dropped to 41 already, so it'll definitely miss the 40-countries mark.

• 10-15 weeks+ #1 on the BB200. with how much the stream is dropping in the states, i bet it'll fail to beat her personal best of 11 weeks at the top of the albums chart.

she'll still have the BB200 YE #1, IFPI #1 album, album with the biggest global debut week numbers beating 25 (most likely), Hot 100 #1 artist, IFPI #1 artist, Billboard #1 artist, climbs up to ATOD #1 artist and such, but the other big ones ive mentioned above? those are basically free for the taking at her current popularity, and she's wasting it all.

Squandering it? Lol hardly not. Maybe she doesn't care about having a bunch of Cruel Summer's and Styles on her record and wants to make the music she likes? And just a note I love the album and love this sound for her. TTPD is an amazing album and touches everything she needed to do. She's dropping reputation this year you'll all get your pop songs from the vault then.

[livelikedying111]

Apr 22, 2024 3:38:59 GMT -5 theycallmedualian said:

ok, even as a diehard Swiftard, i MUST vent a bit on how STUPID she is for serving this slow ballad crap when the WHOLE WORLD is looking forward for her next project. TTPD is the stuff you'd surprise drop during a hiatus or something. totally not what you'd serve at the HEIGHT of your commercial peak. the opportunity she has right now is literally once in a generation, and shes squandering it by doing this homemade project with jack antonoff in his basement. what a waste.

Will the TTPD projct be hugely successful still? yes. but not nearly as successful as it wouldve been had she served something faster and more basic. just the average poppy soulless bop. not sharing her own personal nightmares written into word salads. I'm willing to bet she's not getting these accolades now because of this terrible move:

That's what I said! This is self sabotage.
It's okay to write whichever song you want and express yourself however you want.
BUT if it all sounds like one long monotonous song, no one's gonna be able to go through it other than the Swifties.
She could've done this and still throw in 1-2 upbeat songs to give others something to hold on to.
On one hand, she releases many variants to secure sales, on the other hand, she releases music one can't get through, so she actually alienates potential buyers.
Maybe she thinks she can get away with anything. I thought she'd learned her lesson with ME! and Lover... I'm truly baffled with this.