Billboard Hot 100: 05/04/2024

[fridayteenage]

Apr 25, 2024 9:30:42 GMT -5 jayhawk1117 said:

Apr 25, 2024 7:15:58 GMT -5 sedrickwilhelm said:

Not suspicious or anything.

Doesn’t hurt its case that Taylor’s album is pretty bop-less lmao. The entire top 10 is fr fr and we’re pretty close to summer so a summer-y song was bound to pop off.

Is it?

[badrobot]

Side note, I just found out Espresso is NOT produced by Dr Luke, despite sounding exactly like his style -- it's a guy named Julian Bunetta (who is possibly a Dr Luke protege maybe?).

[haven]

espresso will 100% be the next #1 after fortnight. At the rate things are going, it might start outstreaming fortnight too.

[Choco]

Espresso is also super viral on TikTok. Sabrina is naturally rising, which is great for her. Crazy to think she's got a handful of albums that got zero attention and then she managed to turn things around.

Apr 25, 2024 9:57:53 GMT -5 badrobot said:

Side note, I just found out Espresso is NOT produced by Dr Luke, despite sounding exactly like his style -- it's a guy named Julian Bunetta (who is possibly a Dr Luke protege maybe?).

Bunetta has over 300 credited songs to his name on Spotify and has worked as far back as One Direction. He's low-profile but not really a nobody.

Sabrina's current sound reminds me a lot of thank u, next Ariana. That was more Ilya/Max Martin and had zero Dr. Luke credits. Bunetta also produced "Nonsense" which I always felt like it did well initially because it sounded like Ariana during an Ariana drought lol.

[Az Paynter]

Also, Coachella. Surely that's got to be playing a part in Sabrina hype being at an all-time high.

[Choco]

Apr 25, 2024 10:13:07 GMT -5 Az Paynter said:

Also, Coachella. Surely that's got to be playing a part in Sabrina hype being at an all-time high.

Yes - the video of the Lovefool/Feather mashup keeps popping up on Twitter and TikTok.

[Baby Yoda Hot100Fan]

kworb's Billboard Radio Songs Estimates « 2024 » / « 04 » / « 25 »

1(=) Teddy Swims - Lose Control 78.58(+0.23)
2(=) Benson Boone - Beautiful Things 70.01(-0.12)
3(=) Doja Cat - Agora Hills 66.08(-1.01)
4(=) Jack Harlow - Lovin On Me 63.64(-0.78)
5(=) Sabrina Carpenter - Feather 51.32(+0.08)
6(=) Tate McRae - greedy 49.89(-0.07)
7(=) Sam Hunt - Outskirts 47.64(-0.62)
8(=) Luke Combs - Fast Car 46.55(-0.18)
9(+1) Taylor Swift - Cruel Summer 46.25(-0.44)
10(-1) Beyoncé - TEXAS HOLD 'EM 45.46(-1.26)

11(+2) SZA - Saturn 41.54(+1.14)

14(+4) Scotty McCreery - Cab In A Solo 39.96(+1.32)

31(+5) Taylor Swift - Fortnight (feat. Post Malone) 28.56(+4.26)

36(+3) Future, Metro Boomin & Kendrick Lamar - Like That 24.72(+0.92)

51(+4) Hozier - Too Sweet 19.30(+0.73)

-(-) Drake - Push Ups(Drop & Give Me Fifty) 5.04(+0.90)

[Baby Yoda Hot100Fan]

Apr 25, 2024 10:12:09 GMT -5 Choco said:

Espresso is also super viral on TikTok. Sabrina is naturally rising, which is great for her. Crazy to think she's got a handful of albums that got zero attention and then she managed to turn things around.

Apr 25, 2024 9:57:53 GMT -5 badrobot said:

Side note, I just found out Espresso is NOT produced by Dr Luke, despite sounding exactly like his style -- it's a guy named Julian Bunetta (who is possibly a Dr Luke protege maybe?).

Bunetta has over 300 credited songs to his name on Spotify and has worked as far back as One Direction. He's low-profile but not really a nobody.

Sabrina's current sound reminds me a lot of thank u, next Ariana. That was more Ilya/Max Martin and had zero Dr. Luke credits. Bunetta also produced "Nonsense" which I always felt like it did well initially because it sounded like Ariana during an Ariana drought lol.

One pretty interesting thing I found is that he is both a producer and songwriter for Lose Control.

[GW]

Apr 22, 2024 15:06:19 GMT -5 jenglisbe said:

The funny thing is "TGIFY" was a limited single, which is why it had a shorter chart run that prevented it from a higher year-end position. If it hadn't been limited, it would have had a longer run (that's true for a lot of her singles, including Can't Let Go, I'll Be There, Fantasy, and Heartbreaker). Having said that "TGIFY" was released in a time when not a lot of songs had a commercial release, so that obviously helped it get to #1 at all.

You made a bold, matter-of-fact assertion (see bolded above), and I replied with some actual data and chart stats that proved it to be false. If TGIFY's limited availability was the reason it didn't chart longer, as you said, it would not have still been available for purchase for months after it fell off the Hot 100.  I suggested that, based on the chart data and timeline, its lack of airplay longevity was what killed it, as it quickly plummeted down Hot 100 Airplay after its #15 Airplay peak in week 11, and everything went downhill from there. 

It fell out of the Hot 100's top 50 the week it fell off the Airplay chart (week 18), while it was still #13 in its 9th of 26 weeks on the Sales chart (meaning it was available to buy for at least 17 more weeks). Had there been the kind of demand required to keep it inside of the top 50 of the Hot 100 after week 20 based on Sales alone, even for one or two more weeks, it would have sold out of its limited availability in short order, rather than remaining on shelves for months. Not sure how one could argue otherwise, especially seasoned chart followers who know how this works.

It had a great sales start (100k+ for three straight weeks) thanks in part to one of Sony's aggressive pricing strategies. But after that ended, sales declined as airplay disappeared, leaving approximately 250k+ to sell through after falling out of the sales top ten after five weeks. This kind of performance didn't warrant an additional pressing. 

This is just the reality of this particular case. As I said in my first reply to you, there are some good examples of limited pressings harming Hot 100 runs, of course, but this is absolutely not one of them. It's not an example at all, to be fair.  Not every "limited single" is limited in the sense that it did damage to the song's Hot 100 performance, or that it wasn't enough to satisfy demand. In the big picture, MOST singles simply don't need more than a Gold pressing, which is nothing to sneeze at.  

[Deleted]

Espresso would be a hit by just about any young female pop artist out there, it’s far from suspicious why it’s doing well. Just one of those songs you hear once and go, “yep, smash.”

[jayhawk1117]

Apr 25, 2024 9:57:43 GMT -5 fridayteenage said:

Apr 25, 2024 9:30:42 GMT -5 jayhawk1117 said:

Doesn’t hurt its case that Taylor’s album is pretty bop-less lmao. The entire top 10 is fr fr and we’re pretty close to summer so a summer-y song was bound to pop off.

Is it?

The album? Pretty much. Theres no song SCREAMING single outside I Can Do It With a Broken Heart fr. None of that album is breathing on the pool party playlists lmao.

The top 10? Mmm nothing new at least when it comes to bops. There’s Lovin on me which is old, Like That maybe so, Texas Hold ‘Em def a bop and Ari is pretty mid tempo but bop adjacent. So like nothing NEW going into Summer

[👑 Eloquent ™]

I'd argue "Down Bad" has just as much hit potential as "ICDIWABH". I mean it is leading the latter on Spotify.

[sedrickwilhelm]

Apr 25, 2024 12:03:02 GMT -5 @pikandru said:

Espresso would be a hit by just about any young female pop artist out there, it’s far from suspicious why it’s doing well. Just one of those songs you hear once and go, “yep, smash.”

Nope. Taylor Swift just is not satisfied with only beating Olivia Rodrigo by being the biggest artist on earth and shattering records, she also needs to pick a different young up and coming pop star to push to beat her as well. Olivia’s known enemy.

[Deleted]

Apr 25, 2024 12:19:09 GMT -5 👑 Eloquent ™ said:

I'd argue "Down Bad" has just as much hit potential as "ICDIWABH". I mean it is leading the latter on Spotify.

I'd argue it has far more single potential actually. Down Bad sounds, imho, like a smash

 

[👑 Eloquent ™]

Apr 25, 2024 12:23:02 GMT -5 @stateofgrace said:

Apr 25, 2024 12:19:09 GMT -5 👑 Eloquent ™ said:

I'd argue "Down Bad" has just as much hit potential as "ICDIWABH". I mean it is leading the latter on Spotify.

I'd argue it has far more single potential actually. Down Bad sounds, imho, like a smash

I would echo this, but it seems like everyone else's favorite is "ICDIWABH". lol

[Deleted]

Apr 25, 2024 12:19:09 GMT -5 👑 Eloquent ™ said:

I'd argue "Down Bad" has just as much hit potential as "ICDIWABH". I mean it is leading the latter on Spotify.

That’s not a fair comp at all given their track listing. It’s downright phenomenal for ICDIWABH it can keep up at all that far back in the album with zero promotional push. I can’t imagine DB as a radio hit tbh, idk about how it holds on streaming in the long run. I think it’s getting a massive boost from being the first non-Fortnight song on the album that actually sounds memorable initially.

[👑 Eloquent ™]

Apr 25, 2024 12:27:45 GMT -5 @pikandru said:

Apr 25, 2024 12:19:09 GMT -5 👑 Eloquent ™ said:

I'd argue "Down Bad" has just as much hit potential as "ICDIWABH". I mean it is leading the latter on Spotify.

That’s not a fair comp at all given their track listing. It’s downright phenomenal for ICDIWABH it can keep up at all that far back in the album with zero promotional push. I can’t imagine DB as a radio hit tbh, idk about how it holds on streaming in the long run.

Yeah, I'm not just going on Spotify placement. From every review I've seen, reaction I've seen (over 80 or more now) "Down Bad" consistently seems to be a favorite. We'll just agree to completely disagree about the radio. "Down Bad" is her 2024 "Delicate" IMO.

[Deleted]

Not to fall right back in my endless loop with this argument, but yet another reason no one has convinced me my “qualifying week” idea is a bad one for the hot 100. Half of these “one week wonder” peaks only get there due to their track listing on an album bomb. It’s all so calculated annd inorganic.

[mms82]

Apr 25, 2024 12:30:22 GMT -5 👑 Eloquent ™ said:

Apr 25, 2024 12:27:45 GMT -5 @pikandru said:

That’s not a fair comp at all given their track listing. It’s downright phenomenal for ICDIWABH it can keep up at all that far back in the album with zero promotional push. I can’t imagine DB as a radio hit tbh, idk about how it holds on streaming in the long run.

Yeah, I'm not just going on Spotify placement. From every review I've seen, reaction I've seen (over 80 or more now) "Down Bad" consistently seems to be a favorite. We'll just agree to completely disagree about the radio. "Down Bad" is her 2024 "Delicate" IMO.

Doesn’t she have like five songs from TTPD with radio right now? I don’t really see any of her songs out peaking their chart this week, although I would be pleasantly surprised if Down Bad or ICDWABH gets a long Top 10 stay from radio interest / continued streaming

[mms82]

Apr 25, 2024 12:31:58 GMT -5 @pikandru said:

Not to fall right back in my endless loop with this argument, but yet another reason no one has convinced me my “qualifying week” idea is a bad one for the hot 100. Half of these “one week wonder” peaks only get there due to their track listing on an album bomb. It’s all so calculated annd inorganic.

How would you even propose implementating this in a non arbitrary way? You would need hard and fast rules, not just vibes of this song doesn’t feel like a hit and feels like a “one-hit wonder”

[👑 Eloquent ™]

Apr 25, 2024 12:31:58 GMT -5 @pikandru said:

Not to fall right back in my endless loop with this argument, but yet another reason no one has convinced me my “qualifying week” idea is a bad one for the hot 100. Half of these “one week wonder” peaks only get there due to their track listing on an album bomb. It’s all so calculated annd inorganic.

Since you say album placement is so important how would you explain track 2 sitting at #11 and track 3 sitting at #10 well behind track 4 at #2?

[Deleted]

Apr 25, 2024 12:30:22 GMT -5 👑 Eloquent ™ said:

Apr 25, 2024 12:27:45 GMT -5 @pikandru said:

That’s not a fair comp at all given their track listing. It’s downright phenomenal for ICDIWABH it can keep up at all that far back in the album with zero promotional push. I can’t imagine DB as a radio hit tbh, idk about how it holds on streaming in the long run.

Yeah, I'm not just going on Spotify placement. From every review I've seen, reaction I've seen (over 80 or more now) "Down Bad" consistently seems to be a favorite. We'll just agree to completely disagree about the radio. "Down Bad" is her 2024 "Delicate" IMO.

I agree it's just so infectious 

Her delivery... for a moment I knew cosmic love

[Deleted]

Apr 25, 2024 12:33:59 GMT -5 mms82 said:

Apr 25, 2024 12:31:58 GMT -5 @pikandru said:

Not to fall right back in my endless loop with this argument, but yet another reason no one has convinced me my “qualifying week” idea is a bad one for the hot 100. Half of these “one week wonder” peaks only get there due to their track listing on an album bomb. It’s all so calculated annd inorganic.

How would you even propose implementating this in a non arbitrary way? You would need hard and fast rules, not just vibes of this song doesn’t feel like a hit and feels like a “one-hit wonder”

I suggested it way back in this thread when the whole argument started about how songs would be “disqualified” from the chart in their first week of streaming release. No limitations after that. If a song holds well enough to “debut” at #1 thanks to streaming in its 2nd week, then there’s a very high chance that song isn’t just a flash and is on its way to big hit status. Of course you could also still have old songs that go viral get a one week only huge boost under that rule, but as I mentioned I’ve never tried to say billboard could or should stop flash in the pan successes happening entirely. Just stop what’s happened this decade and how it’s becoming the new norm.

[dremolus - solarpunk]

Apr 25, 2024 12:37:49 GMT -5 @pikandru said:

Apr 25, 2024 12:33:59 GMT -5 mms82 said:

How would you even propose implementating this in a non arbitrary way? You would need hard and fast rules, not just vibes of this song doesn’t feel like a hit and feels like a “one-hit wonder”

I suggested it way back in this thread when the whole argument started about how songs would be “disqualified” from the chart in their first week of streaming release. No limitations after that. If a song holds well enough to “debut” at #1 thanks to streaming in its 2nd week, then there’s a very high chance that song isn’t just a flash and is on its way to big hit status. Of course you could also still have old songs that go viral get a one week only huge boost under that rule, but as I mentioned I’ve never tried to say billboard could or should stop flash in the pan successes happening entirely. Just stop what’s happened this decade and how it’s becoming the new norm.

no

[Future Captain]

I think the next few weeks after this are gonna be Taylor vs Sabrina for the #1 spot which is wild

[Mayman]

Apr 25, 2024 12:20:40 GMT -5 sedrickwilhelm said:

Apr 25, 2024 12:03:02 GMT -5 @pikandru said:

Espresso would be a hit by just about any young female pop artist out there, it’s far from suspicious why it’s doing well. Just one of those songs you hear once and go, “yep, smash.”

Nope. Taylor Swift just is not satisfied with only beating Olivia Rodrigo by being the biggest artist on earth and shattering records, she also needs to pick a different young up and coming pop star to push to beat her as well. Olivia’s known enemy.

I just hate people who say shit like this, like grow the fuck up.

[theycallmedualian]

Apr 25, 2024 12:31:58 GMT -5 @pikandru said:

Not to fall right back in my endless loop with this argument, but yet another reason no one has convinced me my “qualifying week” idea is a bad one for the hot 100. Half of these “one week wonder” peaks only get there due to their track listing on an album bomb. It’s all so calculated annd inorganic.

What is inorganic? That the top 10 biggest songs of the week is going to be top 10 on the charts? Especially when all the charting singles are at 50M+ radio while the album tracks have none? There is literally nothing more organic than this, given the point of the chart is to measure what songs earned the most activities in a single week.

Just because you have a particular obsession over needing songs to chart above x amounts of weeks to be considered a “true hit” doesn’t mean other people do. Not even billboard does, so sit your ass down.

[dremolus - solarpunk]

Apr 25, 2024 12:20:40 GMT -5 sedrickwilhelm said:

Apr 25, 2024 12:03:02 GMT -5 @pikandru said:

Espresso would be a hit by just about any young female pop artist out there, it’s far from suspicious why it’s doing well. Just one of those songs you hear once and go, “yep, smash.”

Nope. Taylor Swift just is not satisfied with only beating Olivia Rodrigo by being the biggest artist on earth and shattering records, she also needs to pick a different young up and coming pop star to push to beat her as well. Olivia’s known enemy.

Ah yes, Taylor Swift wants push down Sabrina Carpenter from ever succeeding. That's why Taylor chose Sabrina to be one of her opening acts for the Eras Tour




and even had her come on stage to sing with her

[mms82]

Apr 25, 2024 12:37:49 GMT -5 @pikandru said:

Apr 25, 2024 12:33:59 GMT -5 mms82 said:

How would you even propose implementating this in a non arbitrary way? You would need hard and fast rules, not just vibes of this song doesn’t feel like a hit and feels like a “one-hit wonder”

I suggested it way back in this thread when the whole argument started about how songs would be “disqualified” from the chart in their first week of streaming release. No limitations after that. If a song holds well enough to “debut” at #1 thanks to streaming in its 2nd week, then there’s a very high chance that song isn’t just a flash and is on its way to big hit status. Of course you could also still have old songs that go viral get a one week only huge boost under that rule, but as I mentioned I’ve never tried to say billboard could or should stop flash in the pan successes happening entirely. Just stop what’s happened this decade and how it’s becoming the new norm.

So Hiss wouldn’t be a top 10 hit under this? I’m not a Megan fan but cmon, that was unquestionably the biggest song its week. This week, featuring the 2nd biggest album release of all time and the biggest streaming week ever, would have Cruel Summer as the only Taylor song charting? That makes no sense

[mms82]

Apr 25, 2024 13:07:55 GMT -5 mms82 said:

Apr 25, 2024 12:37:49 GMT -5 @pikandru said:

I suggested it way back in this thread when the whole argument started about how songs would be “disqualified” from the chart in their first week of streaming release. No limitations after that. If a song holds well enough to “debut” at #1 thanks to streaming in its 2nd week, then there’s a very high chance that song isn’t just a flash and is on its way to big hit status. Of course you could also still have old songs that go viral get a one week only huge boost under that rule, but as I mentioned I’ve never tried to say billboard could or should stop flash in the pan successes happening entirely. Just stop what’s happened this decade and how it’s becoming the new norm.

So Hiss wouldn’t be a top 10 hit under this? I’m not a Megan fan but cmon, that was unquestionably the biggest song its week. This week, featuring the 2nd biggest album release of all time and the biggest streaming week ever, would have Cruel Summer as the only Taylor song charting? That makes no sense

Also you would still have album bombs, they’d just be inaccurate because I bet 15+ Taylor tracks chart next week - I’m no fan of the British rules of three songs per artist but they make more sense then this weird delayed album bomb rule