10/16/23024
By Gary Trust
Just seven songs have hit new highs in the top 10 over the last three-plus months, the longest dry spell in the chart's history.
A summer slowdown in new Billboard Hot 100 top 10s has been followed by a near fall freeze.
Over the past three-plus months, between Hot 100 charts dated from the beginning of July through Oct. 19, only seven songs have notched new peaks in the top 10, led by Shaboozey’s “A Bar Song (Tipsy),” which has run up an active 14-week reign — the third-longest this decade — beginning July 13.
The other six such Hot 100 top 10s in that span (pending any further climbs): Morgan Wallen’s “Lies Lies Lies” (No. 7 peak, July 20); Lady Gaga and Bruno Mars’ “Die With a Smile” (No. 3, Aug. 31); Sabrina Carpenter’s “Taste” (No. 2, Sept. 7); Chappell Roan’s “Good Luck, Babe!” (No. 4, Sept. 28); Billie Eilish’s “Birds of a Feather” (No. 2, Oct. 12); and The Weeknd and Playboi Carti’s “Timeless” (No. 3, Oct. 12).
The tracks have gained entrance to an especially exclusive club of long-running hits in the Hot 100’s top 10 in that stretch, also among them Teddy Swims’ “Lose Control,” which has lodged in the tier for 39 weeks and counting, tying for the fifth-longest top 10 stay in the chart’s archives. Plus, Carpenter’s “Espresso” and Benson Boone’s “Beautiful Things,” at Nos. 4 and 10, respectively, on the latest list have each spent 25 weeks in the top 10, while “A Bar Song (Tipsy)” has pulled up a stool in the region for 24 weeks.
The extent of two songs hitting new highs in the Hot 100’s top 10 so far in October, following two each in September and July and one in August, represents the most fallow three-month-plus period for turnover in the top bracket over the chart’s entire 66-year history.
Put in further perspective, “Die With a Smile” in August ended a nearly five-year run of multiple Hot 100 top 10s posting new peaks every month since; in November 2018, Ariana Grande’s “Thank U, Next” was the only track to do so, when it began a seven-week rule. Overall, such inertia in the top 10 is rare. March 2009 sported one hit reaching a new high (The All-American Rejects’ “Gives You Hell”), while January 2002 marks the only monthly shutout ever. (Eilish wasn’t ready yet to keep the streak going, as she was born the month before.)
The current trend of hits repeating in the Hot 100’s top 10 isn’t necessarily a bad thing — every week in the chart’s history has featured exactly 10 in-demand top 10s, regardless of their age. A chicken-and-egg element is also involved: Are big hits so strong that newer songs can’t overcome them, or are challengers not on the same level? In any case, a select group of established hits — many multiformat smashes strong in streaming, airplay and sales — is preventing new songs from cycling through the chart’s upper reaches at a rate in line with the past.
What’s behind the relative lack of movement in the Hot 100’s top 10 since early summer? Below are five seemingly key factors.
Country Strong
Shaboozey’s “A Bar Song (Tipsy)” has bolstered its Hot 100 domination thanks in part to historic crossover success, as it became the first song ever to go top 10 on the Country Airplay, Pop Airplay, Adult Pop Airplay and Rhythmic Airplay charts.
The track became only the third song ever to top both Country Airplay and Pop Airplay — and supplanted the second to achieve the feat, Post Malone’s “I Had Some Help,” featuring Morgan Wallen.
Country has forged prominent recent chart commands, thanks in part to Wallen. “I Had Some Help” and “A Bar Song (Tipsy)” finished at Nos. 1 and 2, respectively, on the 2024 Songs of the Summer chart (based on Hot 100 performance between Memorial Day and Labor Day), marking the second year in a row — and ever — that the genre claimed the season’s top two songs.
Meanwhile, of the three longest Hot 100 No. 1 runs this decade, two are country hits that found favor with pop audiences: Wallen’s “Last Night” (16 weeks, 2023) and Shaboozey’s breakthrough hit.
“Passion for this song is almost unheard of,” Travis Daily, Cumulus Media vp of country, recently told Billboard of “A Bar Song (Tipsy).” “Some country programmers don’t like when pop stations play our country hits. I would argue that songs like this give me a chance to convert some audience into becoming fans of the greatest format in the world, which is obviously country.”
Carpenter Built a Wall
Short n’ Sweet has led to a long, n’ sweetly successful, run in the Hot 100’s top 10 for Sabrina Carpenter.
Thanks to her first Billboard 200 No. 1 album, Carpenter has held a 30% share of the Hot 100’s top 10 in each of the past seven weeks — the lengthiest run of tripling up by a woman in the chart’s history and the longest for any act since Drake in 2018. In addition to “Espresso,” the set’s “Please Please Please,” her initial Hot 100 leader, has spent its first 18 weeks on the chart in the top 10; the past seven weeks, they have been joined by newest single “Taste.”
Teddy Swims Still in ‘Control’
As noted above, Teddy Swims’ “Lose Control” is tied as the fifth-longest-running top 10 in the Hot 100’s history. It’s also one of only 28 hits ever to log 60 or more weeks overall on the chart.
Like Shaboozey’s and Post Malone’s Hot 100 No. 1s, “Lose Control,” which led for a week in March, has drawn uncommon multiformat radio reach. It has ruled five airplay charts — Radio Songs, Pop Airplay, Adult Pop Airplay, Adult R&B Airplay and Adult Contemporary — becoming the first title to have topped all five surveys in nearly a decade.
“Teddy Swims is unique in today’s music landscape,” Warner Records evp of promotion and commerce Mike Chester mused. “When we began promoting ‘Lose Control,’ our journey was carefully planned. From the start, we noticed that the song was resonating in various pockets of culture, creating a strong and diverse fanbase.”
Billboard 200 No. 1s Not Translating to the Hot 100
The availability of recent new music hasn’t been an issue, as 24 albums hit new peaks in the Billboard 200’s top 10 since the start of July. They simply haven’t spun off as many top 10s on the Hot 100 as might be expected.
Still, two sets that debuted on the Billboard 200 in July generated preview Hot 100 top 10s in June: Zach Bryan’s The Great American Bar Scene (“Pink Skies,” No. 6) and Eminem’s The Death of Slim Shady (Coup de Grâce) (“Houdini,” No. 2).
Otherwise among albums to arrive on the Billboard 200 in the past three-plus months, only Post Malone’s F-1 Trillion and Carpenter’s Short n’ Sweet have produced Hot 100 top 10s.
Superstar Albums Sprung Earlier
To wrap on a positive note for fans who like to regularly replenish playlists, 2024 has brought much new hit music. Turnover in the Hot 100’s top 10 has just been more clustered in the first half of the year.
Six songs scored new peaks in the Hot 100’s top 10 in January, followed by two in February, eight in March, 10 in April, 13 in May and five in June.
The number 13 should be a clue, as Taylor Swift stormed the entire top 10, tying her own record, on the May 4-dated Hot 100 with songs from her latest album, The Tortured Poets Department. Before that, Future and Metro Boomin teamed up for five new top 10s on the April 6 chart, from their We Don’t Trust You set, while Beyoncé banked two top 10s a week later from her album Cowboy Carter.
Big hits in all three of the Hot 100’s metrics, and those that find support from fans of multiple genres, can become mainstays in the top 10 for months. Still, given the list’s history, the recent slowing of new top 10s could be a reversible outlier, with the chart perhaps only a superstar album or two away from returning to a more typical flow of hits steadily coming for the top competition.
