Billboard Hot 100: 11/16/2024

[Baby Yoda Hot100Fan]

kworb's Billboard Radio Songs Estimates « 2024 » / « 11 » / « 04 »

1(=) Shaboozey - A Bar Song (Tipsy) 85.19(-0.77)
2(=) Sabrina Carpenter - Espresso 73.31(+0.42)
3(+1) Hozier - Too Sweet 66.99(+0.62)
4(-1) Jelly Roll - I Am Not Okay 66.73(-0.04)
5(=) Post Malone - I Had Some Help (feat. Morgan Wallen) 61.19(-0.00)
6(=) Teddy Swims - Lose Control 60.79(-0.13)

7(=) Billie Eilish - BIRDS OF A FEATHER 60.35(+0.17)
8(=) Benson Boone - Beautiful Things 53.07(+0.21)
9(=) Lady Gaga & Bruno Mars - Die With A Smile 51.85(+0.59)
10(=) Kendrick Lamar - Not Like Us 46.17(-0.70) -

17(+1) Sabrina Carpenter - Taste 39.56(+1.34)

36(+1) The Weeknd & Playboi Carti - Timeless 23.83(+0.98)

61(+1) Morgan Wallen - Love Somebody 15.77(+0.86)

72(+6) Sabrina Carpenter - Bed Chem 13.02(+0.95)

86(+9) Lady Gaga - Disease 11.61(+0.94)

-(-) GloRilla & Sexyy Red - WHATCHU KNO ABOUT ME 9.91(+0.83)

-(-) ROSÉ & Bruno Mars - APT. 7.92(+1.05)

-(-) Jhayco & Kapo - Passoa 2.37(+0.87) +

-(-) Tee Grizzley - Blow For Blow f/J. Cole 2.19(+0.77) +

[shakemaki]

Nov 3, 2024 22:32:40 GMT -5 fridayteenage said:

I do wonder if they'll ever take back allowing recurrent Xmas music.
That song could have every hot 100 record (#1, top 10, total weeks), and the list of the songs with most charting weeks could end up being: 1 Xmas song, 2 Xmas song, 3 Xmas song, 4 Xmas song...

Yeah, that would probably be inevitable if it stays forever this way. But also, it would be decades before the records would likely look that way, so I’m not really thinking about it much tbh

[Music Fan]

Nov 4, 2024 16:01:32 GMT -5 shakemaki said:

Nov 3, 2024 22:32:40 GMT -5 fridayteenage said:

I do wonder if they'll ever take back allowing recurrent Xmas music.
That song could have every hot 100 record (#1, top 10, total weeks), and the list of the songs with most charting weeks could end up being: 1 Xmas song, 2 Xmas song, 3 Xmas song, 4 Xmas song...

Yeah, that would probably be inevitable if it stays forever this way. But also, it would be decades before the records would likely look that way, so I’m not really thinking about it much tbh

I think people would understand Christmas songs come with an asterisk. I don't so much mind allowing xmas songs on the chart -- as much as I hate they're part of the year end. I don't think seasonal music is reflective of the "popular songs that year." I wish christmas songs would be booted off the year end after like the 3rd year of it appearing.

[shakemaki]

Do we think it will be the last week of this month or the first week of next month when Mariah or Brenda first goes #1? Because if it’s the latter, ABS is gonna tie OTR if nothing else replaces it before then. At that point I’d honestly rather it just have the record tbh. Joint longest #1 is lame.

[Ryan]

[sedrickwilhelm]

Nov 4, 2024 18:47:36 GMT -5 Ryan said:

Wait, what? Does this mean “Sticky” might go number 1 this week or nah?

[tfa20]

Without radio, "Sticky" isn't even going to reach the top 5. sedrickwilhelm

[Baby Yoda Hot100Fan]

^Nah. The only thing for sure is that Sticky would be #1 in Streaming Songs. But it won't be getting much help from radio airplay nor song sales. BTW, it looks likely that no song in the top 15 of the Hot 100 would actually manage to get a weekly gain in points, based on HITS early prediction.

[NeRD]

Unless something crazy happens, it's looking like #27 will be Disease's peak.

[Enigma.]

The Spotify gap between DWAS and A Bar Song is 750k today. Come on DWAS you can do it, get that #1!!!!!

[flextamcsignals]

This week, on “What The Hell Is Recurrency?”

The Door, I Can Do It With A Broken Heart, Wind Up Missin’ You and High Road all fall below the top 50 having charted for 20+ weeks, but remain on the chart.

Beautiful As You and Think I’m In Love With You are also still on the chart despite suffering big drops and being 20+ weeks in.

Is Billboard just keeping these songs around because there’s a possibility they gained like .1% in one metric? Because this is getting ridiculous, remember how long Gata Only was able to spend below the top 50 even though it should have gone recurrent? Same with FE!N and Wild Ones, this year has been crazy for keeping songs around much longer than they should be.

[fridayteenage]

per TOTC predictions
broken heart +2%
wind up missing you +15%
high road ~0%

[flextamcsignals]

I just realized I posted this in the wrong thread, this is for next weeks chart not this week 😅

TOTC also had Saturn staying on but that went recurrent so ¯\_(ツ)_/¯

[GW]

Nov 5, 2024 8:35:02 GMT -5 flextamcsignals said:

This week, on “What The Hell Is Recurrency?”

The Door, I Can Do It With A Broken Heart, Wind Up Missin’ You and High Road all fall below the top 50 having charted for 20+ weeks, but remain on the chart.

Beautiful As You and Think I’m In Love With You are also still on the chart despite suffering big drops and being 20+ weeks in.

Is Billboard just keeping these songs around because there’s a possibility they gained like .1% in one metric? Because this is getting ridiculous, remember how long Gata Only was able to spend below the top 50 even though it should have gone recurrent? Same with FE!N and Wild Ones, this year has been crazy for keeping songs around much longer than they should be.

Recurrent rules are intended for songs that have already peaked and are just lingering by maintaining enough points - they're not actively being promoted or gaining in metrics.  I find you can almost always see why a song is allowed to avoid recurrency by looking at the Radio Songs chart and/or the song's genre airplay chart.  Songs that show an increase at radio for the week avoid recurrency. 

All of the songs you mentioned are bulleted on Radio Songs, minus Think I'm In Love With You, which moved up on Country Airplay (although, without a bullet, so that one is questionable.) Once it goes recurrent on Country Airplay it will be gone on the Hot 100, whichever comes first.

Saturn is no longer active (or even charting) on Radio Songs, so it went recurrent on the Hot 100 by dropping below the top 50.  It peaked in all metrics, and on the Hot 100, months ago.  Some of the songs you mentioned may have technically done the same, but their radio spins/audience is still increasing, so they are still considered "current" entries.

EDIT: I would also add that charts are a tool for the industry, so the rules skew toward what the labels want based on what's useful to them. Radio has long been the standard in terms of a record's promotional life, and whether a song is even considered a "single" or not.

[SPRΞΞ]

Nov 5, 2024 8:00:23 GMT -5 NeRD said:

Unless something crazy happens, it's looking like #27 will be Disease's peak.

seems #1 on TTH had no effect whatsoever, even negative effect. Like Small Talk. Or maybe TTH, in general, isn't a big deal anymore.

[Az Paynter]

Or, y'know, Tyler the Creator happened... oh, and the beginning of Christmas creep.

[GW]

Streaming has put a bit of a monkey wrench on Hot 100 recurrent rules, generally speaking. It's like a new form and alternative to radio, and the labels can actively promote on streaming in various ways, but streaming success can be made instant by the consumer long before a song is chosen to become a radio single (or if). So some of these songs have a ton of chart life prior to their official promotion as singles, so we are seeing songs stay on the Hot 100 longer, avoiding recurrency by becoming radio hits months after their streaming debuts.

Streaming has allowed the consumer to enter the chat in determining what a "hit" is right out of the gate, without being told what to focus on, and I think the industry (including Billboard) is still trying to figure out how to handle that.

[spiritboy]

Her fans are finding lots of excuses but Disease performance is not it, especially in US.

[ObhiDonna]

Nov 5, 2024 12:31:25 GMT -5 spiritboy said:

Her fans are finding lots of excuses but Disease performance is not it, especially in US.

Just iterate here, what excuses are Gaga fans finding exactly? Farting is all fine and good but lets not make a statement without backing it up mate.

[fridayteenage]

apple
6 +4
Gracie Abrams - That’s So True

[spiritboy]

Nov 5, 2024 12:34:54 GMT -5 ObhiDonna said:

Nov 5, 2024 12:31:25 GMT -5 spiritboy said:

Her fans are finding lots of excuses but Disease performance is not it, especially in US.

Just iterate here, what excuses are Gaga fans finding exactly? Farting is all fine and good but lets not make a statement without backing it up mate.

Just check Disease thread on atrl. 😂

[Baby Yoda Hot100Fan]

kworb's Billboard Radio Songs Estimates « 2024 » / « 11 » / « 06 »

1(=) Shaboozey - A Bar Song (Tipsy) 84.00(-0.86)
2(=) Sabrina Carpenter - Espresso 73.13(-0.02)
3(=) Hozier - Too Sweet 67.05(+0.01)
4(=) Jelly Roll - I Am Not Okay 66.23(-0.43)
5(=) Teddy Swims - Lose Control 60.91(+0.01)
6(+1) Billie Eilish - BIRDS OF A FEATHER 60.53(+0.22)
7(-1) Post Malone - I Had Some Help (feat. Morgan Wallen) 59.93(-0.88)
8(+1) Lady Gaga & Bruno Mars - Die With A Smile 52.81(+0.42)
9(-1) Benson Boone - Beautiful Things 52.61(-0.41)
10(=) Myles Smith - Stargazing 46.17(+0.26)

11(+1) Morgan Wallen - Lies Lies Lies 45.50(+0.90)

15(+1) Sabrina Carpenter - Taste 41.08(+0.64)

37(+1) Koe Wetzel & Jessie Murph - High Road 24.10(+0.94)

43(+3) Morgan Wallen - Cowgirls (feat. ERNEST) 21.43(+0.60)

-(-) Snoop Dogg, Dr. Dre & Jhené Aiko - Gorgeous 4.96(+0.63)

-(-) Omy De Oro, Nio Garcia - Celosa 1.62(+0.89) +

[Baby Yoda Hot100Fan]

[fridayteenage]

Gracie the only one on an upward trajectory

[shakemaki]

Ugh, not DWAS turning into Bad Romance 2.0 where it’s gonna come close to but not #1 for several weeks… I still have hope it at least happens after the holiday if it doesn’t before.

[avamaxstan]

13 points seems very surmountable? What other levers can they pull to push it over?

[avamaxstan]

Nov 4, 2024 16:30:02 GMT -5 Music Fan said:

Nov 4, 2024 16:01:32 GMT -5 shakemaki said:

Yeah, that would probably be inevitable if it stays forever this way. But also, it would be decades before the records would likely look that way, so I’m not really thinking about it much tbh

I think people would understand Christmas songs come with an asterisk. I don't so much mind allowing xmas songs on the chart -- as much as I hate they're part of the year end. I don't think seasonal music is reflective of the "popular songs that year." I wish christmas songs would be booted off the year end after like the 3rd year of it appearing.

Billboard should just publish two chart versions during the holidays - Hot 100 & Hot 100 Excl. Holiday Music

[Enigma.]

Nov 7, 2024 0:54:42 GMT -5 avamaxstan said:

Nov 4, 2024 16:30:02 GMT -5 Music Fan said:

I think people would understand Christmas songs come with an asterisk. I don't so much mind allowing xmas songs on the chart -- as much as I hate they're part of the year end. I don't think seasonal music is reflective of the "popular songs that year." I wish christmas songs would be booted off the year end after like the 3rd year of it appearing.

Billboard should just publish two chart versions during the holidays - Hot 100 & Hot 100 Excl. Holiday Music

Lol no

If I am very optimistic, and I tend to be, DWAS could overtake A Bar Song just before the Christmas songs take over, but it requires constant gains in airplay for the former and losses for the latter.

[fridayteenage]

Bruno's never had a #2 peaking song, it'll give him a new experience

[Darkest Hour]

Nov 7, 2024 0:43:35 GMT -5 shakemaki said:

Ugh, not DWAS turning into Bad Romance 2.0 where it’s gonna come close to but not #1 for several weeks… I still have hope it at least happens after the holiday if it doesn’t before.

Vinyl and CD shipping date for DWAS is now November 12th. The team is probably waiting for the gap to be close enough and seize the #1.