***The Month Of Smash Debuts***

[singingsparrow]

This past week we've been experiencing so many massive debuts.

Audioslave led the pack, now we're seeing Nine Inch Nails, System Of A Down, Weezer, and soon Coldplay all competing at once.

This brings one thought to mind: Which smash debuts will succeed over others and which ones will eventually collapse and be lost in the shuffle?

*

My Prediction:

*

1) Nine Inch Nails will NOT top the chart, and experience massive losses after peaking (-400 to -700)

2) Weezer will go Top 20 here, but won't go much further.

3) Audioslave will hang at #1 for Sunday's update, though a non-smash debut single ("Holiday") may still come up and topple the track from #1.

4) Between System Of A Down and Coldplay, Ststem Of A Down will have the stronger debut, though both singles will enjoy huge debuts, with Coldplay earning a new career single peak on th Alternative chart with "Speed of Sound" as it goes Top 5.

Sincerely,
Noah Eaton

[agon666]

Is this already Nine Inch Nail's highest peaking song on Alt?

[Walking Contradiction]

I'm starting to get overwhelmed by all these fast-rising "event records" on Alternative.  They all seem to come one right after the other.  QOTSA, Beck, Garbage, Audioslave, NIN, Weezer....am I missing anyone? None of them are even THAT good, IMO.

[SyrupBoy]

agon666 said:

Is this already Nine Inch Nail's highest peaking song on Alt?

Yes. Amazing what a 6 year layover can do for your popularity.

[oscillations.]

SyrupBoy said:

Yes. Amazing what a 6 year layover can do for your popularity.

We'll see how many go out and buy the album. I know I will, but will sell any more than The Fragile? (900k)

Who knows.

It seems all these 90s artists have comebacks now, and since Garbage, my favorite band, is among this pack, I wish them all the best, but it's almost TOO good to be true.

And yeah, it creeps me out how fast some of these songs are rising. It's almost like if you don't start out with 200 daily spins now, you are a failure or something. NIN and Audioslave makes Garbage and Beck's fast starts seem slow. :( I won't think Weezer will be as quick though.

[oscillations.]

Coldplay has never had a Top 10 hit at Alternative, even though they are huge. Why are we assuming now that they will? Just because of their name?

[DuckHead]

CherryCrush said:

Coldplay has never had a Top 10 hit at Alternative, even though they are huge. Why are we assuming now that they will? Just because of their name?

"Yellow" made the Top 10 on Alternative- it peaked at # 6.

[oscillations.]

DuckHead said:

"Yellow" made the Top 10 on Alternative- it peaked at # 6.

oh did it?

Okay, well let me rephrase that...when Coldplay really blew up (with A Rush of Blood to the Head), they didn't a huge amount of play on Alternative, even though I still hear Clocks occasionally. I guess they are more for the AAA format...although, since the alt. scene is changing now, they may be able to rack up some airplay.

[Adore]

Um... have you guys heard "Speed of Sound?" I really don't think it'll be a 'smash'. It isn't "Yellow" or "Clocks".. or even "In My Place" or "God Put a Smile on Your Face" caliber, and it isn't even that catchy.

[oscillations.]

Adore said:

Um... have you guys heard "Speed of Sound?" I really don't think it'll be  a 'smash'. It isn't "Yellow" or "Clocks".. or even "In My Place" or "God Put a Smile on Your Face" caliber, and it isn't even that catchy.

I haven't heard it yet.

[Nicholas2.0]

CherryCrush said:

It's almost TOO good to be true. And it creeps me out how fast some of these songs are rising. It's almost like if you don't start out with 200 daily spins now, you are a failure or something. 

Yeah, what's even more disturbing is that I don't even hear any of these songs that much yet.

[Mega248]

Adore said:

Um... have you guys heard "Speed of Sound?" I really don't think it'll be  a 'smash'. It isn't "Yellow" or "Clocks".. or even "In My Place" or "God Put a Smile on Your Face" caliber, and it isn't even that catchy.

Do you have a link?

[singingsparrow]

DuckHead said:

"Yellow" made the Top 10 on Alternative- it peaked at # 6.

"Clocks" also went Top 10.

"The Scientist" and "In My Place" both went Top 20, though in my memory I don't think they went Top 15.

Sincerely,
Noah Eaton

[friday]

SingingSparrow said:

"Clocks" also went Top 10.

No, it peaked at #11. I think it got to like #9 during one update, but got knocked back by the deadline.

[singingsparrow]

CherryCrush said:

Coldplay has never had a Top 10 hit at Alternative, even though they are huge. Why are we assuming now that they will? Just because of their name?

Yes, it's their name that's exactly why "Speed of Sound" will explode upon debut no matter what it sounds like.

You see, upon release of "A Rush of Blood To The Head", many probably thought of "Parachutes" as a fluke for the band, so "In My Place" was just released like a single from most artists traditionally is; modestly.

"In My Place" went #1 at AAA and Top 20 at Alternative, but, still, it didn't exactly leave a lasting impression. Then, with critical raves and more word-of-mouth, that helped mobilize the incredible success of "Clocks".

And then, after their triumph at the Grammys with Best Alternative Album and Best Record of the Year, not to mention MTV music video attention, that made "A Rush of Blood To The Head" about triple their audience.

So, unlike the early promotion of "AROBTTH", many are treating Coldplay as possibly the next U2 or legendary band, and are no longer seen as a fluke artist. They're going to milk this album to the limits, and THAT'S why "Speed of Sound" will hit, no matter how catchy or non-catchy it is.

I mean, look at Beck and now Weezer. Both these artists had abysmal preceding efforts. "Maladroit" faltered in comparison to their preceding release which spawned two huge hits ("Hash Pipe", "Island In The Sun") with that album's singles doing OK but not very lasting in impression with both singles fading fast("Dope Nose", "Keep Fishin'"). Despite their last release's struggle, confidence remains with the band with the way "Beverly Hills" now has a four-digit gain.

And Beck's last release faded pretty quickly too. "Lost Cause" got only a mere fraction of airplay "E-Pro" has gotten.

If both these lesser artists could have such massive debuts, there's no doubt in my mind Coldplay will explode here upon take-off.

Sincerely,
Noah Eaton

[singingsparrow]

*********UPDATE***********

Now we can also add The White Stripes to the Smash Debut crew.

My Gosh, I've never seen so many huge debuts in a short time in all the time I've looked at these charts.

I might as well go ahead and predict whenever Linkin Park release their third LP, the lead single will debut at #1.

Sincerely,
Noah Eaton

[agon666]

SingingSparrow said:

*********UPDATE***********

Now we can also add The White Stripes to the Smash Debut crew.

My Gosh, I've never seen so many huge debuts in a short time in all the time I've looked at these charts.

I might as well go ahead and predict whenever Linkin Park release their third LP, the lead single will debut at #1.

Sincerely,
Noah Eaton

New White Stripes?? Where? When? What's it called?

[oscillations.]

It's the month of breeding huge debuts and killing them a month later.

[friday]

agon666 said:

New White Stripes?? Where? When? What's it called?

I don't know, but the highest song I've found is by them is something called "Ball and Biscuit" at #350. It got a whopping 5 plays in the last seven days, up from 2. I don't know if this is a new song or what, but it doesn't look like something getting ready to explode. Although, I suppose it's due course for some new White Stripes stuff, since it's been two years since their last album.

[Matt4319]

AllAccess lists a new (as-of-yet untitled) White Stripes album being released on June 14th, so I guess it would follow that there'd be a single release sometime in April.

[halo19]

"Ball and Buscuit" is two years old already (or almost). It was one of the album cuts on Elephant.

They got done recording a new album which only took two weeks to be completed. I think the album date could possibly get pushed back.

[Miguelín]

SingingSparrow said:

I might as well go ahead and predict whenever Linkin Park release their third LP, the lead single will debut at #1.

for sure

[singingsparrow]

Looks like I've come out correct on Nine Inch Nails but wrong on Weezer.

I know on Friday when we witnessed "The Hand That Feeds" with a gain of over +1300, it looked like it could just hit #1 like a hurricane. I thought it would quickly tame down, and I still predict it's going to fade away quickly with losses similar to U2's "Vertigo" and Janes Addiction's "Just Because".

But, wow, look at Weezer on the other hand. How I was wrong about them! They're looking at their biggest hit since "Hash Pipe".

I'm still going to confidently predict Green Day will still go #1 with "Holiday" despite Audioslave rushing straight to #1. They still remain THE Alternative artist in the meantime and I believe Green Day will be least affected in comparison to Audioslave with all the debuts happening simultaneously. In fact, I think "Holiday" will take #1 before "Be Yourself" even loses its bullet, and will likely just sit in the Top 3 for at least a month or so, kind of like how Chevelle's "Vitamin R" sat in the Top 5 for quite a long time.

Speaking of which, I think that's how System Of A Down's latest will run. It'll have a strong debut as it is enjoying already, but once it goes to #7 or so, it will hitch-hike the rest of the way up into the Top 5 or so and may have Chevelle longevity too.

Though The White Stripes remain relatively young to the format, expect a huge debut from them as well, just because they're one of the hottest "cool factor" bands out there.

I've also heard Nickelback is releasing their next album soon. And though I'm going to predict the next lead single from Nickelback won't debut as strong as "Someday" did, it'll still debut strong enough and I will predict it'll go Top 10. I think Nickelback is beginning to get washed up from this format, but unlike 3 Doors Down, Nickelback really do make an effort to engage their Active Rock base sound in their music as of late, with "Figure You Out" and "Because Of You" two of their hardest singles released. And knowing that 3 Doors Down were able to go Top 20 here off a lead single that isn't Alternative-sounding at all, Nickelback (assuming they go with a HYRM III) should touch the Top 10 before falling.

Sincerely,
Noah Eaton

[oscillations.]

SingingSparrow said:

Looks like I've come out correct on Nine Inch Nails but wrong on Weezer.

I know on Friday when we witnessed "The Hand That Feeds" with a gain of over +1300, it looked like it could just hit #1 like a hurricane. I thought it would quickly tame down, and I still predict it's going to fade away quickly with losses similar to U2's "Vertigo" and Janes Addiction's "Just Because".

But, wow, look at Weezer on the other hand. How I was wrong about them! They're looking at their biggest hit since "Hash Pipe".

I'm still going to confidently predict Green Day will still go #1 with "Holiday" despite Audioslave rushing straight to #1. They still remain THE Alternative artist in the meantime and I believe Green Day will be least affected in comparison to Audioslave with all the debuts happening simultaneously. In fact, I think "Holiday" will take #1 before "Be Yourself" even loses its bullet, and will likely just sit in the Top 3 for at least a month or so, kind of like how Chevelle's "Vitamin R" sat in the Top 5 for quite a long time.

Speaking of which, I think that's how System Of A Down's latest will run. It'll have a strong debut as it is enjoying already, but once it goes to #7 or so, it will hitch-hike the rest of the way up into the Top 5 or so and may have Chevelle longevity too.

Though The White Stripes remain relatively young to the format, expect a huge debut from them as well, just because they're one of the hottest "cool factor" bands out there.

I've also heard Nickelback is releasing their next album soon. And though I'm going to predict the next lead single from Nickelback won't debut as strong as "Someday" did, it'll still debut strong enough and I will predict it'll go Top 10. I think Nickelback is beginning to get washed up from this format, but unlike 3 Doors Down, Nickelback really do make an effort to engage their Active Rock base sound in their music as of late, with "Figure You Out" and "Because Of You" two of their hardest singles released. And knowing that 3 Doors Down were able to go Top 20 here off a lead single that isn't Alternative-sounding at all, Nickelback (assuming they go with a HYRM III) should touch the Top 10 before falling.

Sincerely,
Noah Eaton

Any thoughts on why Garbage's single has been stopped dead in it's tracks after having a huge debut and looking like a definite Top 5?

[Miguelín]

CherryCrush said:

Any thoughts on why Garbage's single has been stopped dead in it's tracks after having a huge debut and looking like a definite Top 5?

Are all the pannel playing this song? maybe that's the problem

[oscillations.]

Miguel said:

Are all the pannel playing this song? maybe that's the problem

It's on 72 stations last time I checked...it had the most stations next to Beck (and now Audioslave, etc).

But whatever. It's peaked, but hopefully it will stay steady in the Top 15 for awhile.

[crash46]

OK, I've gotten a pretty good taste of all these "smash debuts" now, so here's how I'd rank 'em.

[edit: i'm inserting the four from Tayzlor's list that I initially left off.]

1. The Hand That Feeds (A[/color])
2. B.Y.O.B. (A[/color])
3. Why Do You Love Me (A-[/color])
4. Little Sister (B+)
5. Best Of You (B+)
6. E-Pro (B)
7. Be Yourself (B)
8. Beverly Hills (B-)
9. Speed Of Sound (C+)
10. Blue Orchid (C)

[Tayzlor]

Taking it back a little, here's my rankings.

01. Beck - E-Pro
02. Coldplay - Speed of Sound
03. Garbage - Why Do You Love Me
04. White Stripes - Blue Orchid
05. Weezer - Beverly Hills
06. System of a Down - B.Y.O.B.
07. Foo Fighters - Best of You
08. Queens of the Stone Age - Little Sister
09. Nine Inch Nails - The Hand That Feeds
10. Audioslave - Be Yourself

[Matt4319]

Why not, I'll rank 'em too.

1. Best Of You (A[/color])

2. Speed Of Sound (A-[/color])

3. Why Do You Love Me (B+)
4. Little Sister (B+)
5. Beverly Hills (B+)

6. Be Yourself (B)
7. E-Pro (B)

8. The Hand That Feeds (B-)

9. B.Y.O.B. (C+)
10. Blue Orchid (C+)

[alexcuse]

01. Audioslave - Be Yourself  A
02. Foo Fighters - Best of You B+
03. Beck - E-Pro B
04. Weezer - Beverly Hills B-
05. Garbage - Why Do You Love Me B-
06. Coldplay - Speed of Sound B-
07. Nine Inch Nails - The Hand That Feeds B-
08. System of a Down - B.Y.O.B. C
09. White Stripes - Blue Orchid C
10. Queens of the Stone Age - Little Sister D+

Audioslave was the only one to exceed my expectations.  Foo Fighters and White Stripes met what I anticipated, but everything else was below what I expected.