Predictions For 2004

[Deleted]

With the new year on the horizon, what do you suspect will occur on your personal chart throughout the year?

Here's my predictions.

• There were seventeen #1's in 2003.  I'm expecting next year to break the all time record with more than twenty #1's.
  
• Last year I said that I would have more pop/rock #1's than ever and I certainly did.  Almost half of my #1's in 2003 were pop/rock.  I expect this trend to continue.
  
• There was not one rap #1 in 2003.  I'm expecting atleast one in 2004.
  
• There were no #1 debuts in 2003.  I'm expecting atleast one in 2004.
  
• Janet Jackson will score a #1 with atleast one of the singles from her new album.
  
• Janet Jackson will beat the record currently held by Amerie for most total weeks at #1.
  
• Usher will hit #1 with the big ballad from his album.
  
• Brandy will be the disappointment of 2004.  After scoring three Top 10 hits with "Full Moon," she will miss the Top 10 altogether with the singles from "B-Rocka".
  

[Joe1240]

My predictions for my top twenty in 2004-
-I think there could be more number ones than this year as there are only 10 number ones in 2003 on my chart

-Kylie could gain her 2nd number one on the chart with little to no challenge on the chart in that time period when the song comes out.

-Rock music will fare better on my chart than it did in 2003. I expect a Rock song to be number one for the first time since 2001.

-Janet Jackson could make a big challenge to any female artist on the chart gain number one on the charts.

-Rap Music will decline on my chart and more R&B music wil start to reappear and there be many more R&B top 5 hits on the chart.


These all I can think of for now.

[dragoneyez]

- It will be a bad year for music, overall. And through the rest of the year, several good songs will hold #1 longer than usual.

- A song featured on a soundtrack to a blockbuster movie will come out and probably become huge in late spring / early summer. There has been a big soundtrack song almost ever year (2002's Hero / 2003's BM2L).

- A music veteran will return in a big way. Possibly Dr. Dre?

- #1 song of the year will come in the first quarter (or may already be on the chart now), obviously. The #1 song of 2003 debuted in early February, and the #1 song of 2002 debuted in November of 2001.

Predicted 2003 #1s:

AC/DC - ?
... they're set to release their last cd sometime this year. One, or more, of the singles might make it to #1 if they're good.

Audioslave - I Am the Highway
... just heard it recently, so, it's very fresh and new. In the same vein as "Like a Stone" (which spent a good number of weeks at #1). I could see this going for adds on pop and fairing similarly as LAS.

Dr. Dre - ?
... I've been looking forward to what Dre comes out with. He's better than pretty much every rapper out there today. If he comes out with a hot song, it could make it to #1.

Evanescence - My Immortal
... a potential mega-hit here. It looks to become a hit on top 40 and is already being played on alt / rock. With all this exposure, on top of me liking the song and playing their cd, this could end up spending a good amount of weeks at #1.

Linkin Park - Numb
... all their recent singles have went #1, no reason to think this song will do anything different. If this does go #1, it might only spend one or two weeks there, though.

U2 - ?
... if they come back with a really good song off their new cd, it could make it to #1. but, it depends on what kind of song it is. if it's an electronic styled song (like Electrical Storm) it may not chart at all. But, if it's more like their Joshua Tree stuff, it might chart and get to #1.

[Devil Marlena Nylund]

Dispite 2003 being a not-too-great-but-not-too-bad year for the Pop chart in my opinion, in terms of songs, artists and CDs on my chart, it was probably the strongest year for big hits personally for me. I think 2004 will be a great year and it's already off to a great start with the amazing Beth Hart song! There's more to come!

[BlahBlahBlah]

I predict Alicia Keys and N.E.R.D. will both hit #1. I think more songs will chart in 2004 than 2003. There were actually more songs charting on 2002 than 2003. I won't even bother predicting who's going to have the #1 song of the year, since I didn't even know what it was going to be for my chart in 2003 until I typed in all the numbers into Excel this weekend.

[kingLUKE22]

-I predict that this will be the first year since 1998 that Madonna will not appear in the top 20 (unless "Nothing Fails" holds until the first week of the new year.)

-The year's #1's will be mostly by new artists as many veterans will be taking this year off. (Sheryl Crow, MB20.)

-Evanescence will score one or two more #1's off of <i>Fallen</i>

-There will be one huge song that I fall in love with over the Summer months, possibly beating the record of twelve weeks at the top.

[halo19]

- Nine Inch Nails and VAST have strong chart appearences on my chart, with possibilities of #1 hits.
-I will have yet another new #1 of the year, which would make 3 #1's in 3 weeks.
- The White Stripes' next single will be the first since WGTBF to not go #1
- It's not nearly as "indie" as 2003 (in the summer, I got all Spy-happy, hence that. Also, I put indie in quotes since alternative has seemingly become indie.)
- There will be hits from artists who are at this point unknown completely.

[allow that]

It's hard for me to predict because A) I'll be living in Europe for 4 months, so completely different music and B) I won't be able to download songs for those 4 months, so that limits what I hear by a lot.

Aside from that, I've had about 20 #1's in both 2001 and 2002. In 2003 I only have 13. That's actually a good thing because it means the songs that got to #1 stayed there longer, indicating I've liked a lot of songs this year a lot.

Part of that is because so many great late 90's artists put out great singles. In fact, 90% of my current Top 10 is from late 90's artists! LOL But as Luke said, many of these artists are taking the year off... so I don't know who'll be making it at the top.

This year, no new artists made #1. I expect at least 2 or 3, if not more, to make #1 in 2004.

[allow that]

Also, because I'm living in Italy from january til May, I expect:

• At least 1 or 2 euro-techno #1's LOL
  
• At least 2 Italian language #1's
  
• Something along the lines of Dido's "Life For Rent" or Britney's "Toxic" to hit #1, as they'll likely be much bigger in Europe than in the USA

[af18c]

I dont like predicting too much, mostly because im always wrong, but I have one thing to predict:

Alicia Keys


...and thats all I have to say

[Control]

I had 8 #1's in 2003, I predict there will be slightly more than that in 2004.

I predict Janet will dominate in 2004, similar to the way Christina Aguilera dominated in 2003, having multiple #1's, and possibly #1 of the year.

I predict Ricky Martin will continue to be successful in 2004, this time with his English material.

Janet and Ricky will be in heavy competition for the top spot several times.

[Bob]

It's going to be a tie between Alicia Keys and Faith Evans for artist of the year for me-- depending mainly on when Faith releases her materials.

[Chromeozone]

If "Party Up" by Hilary Duff is released as a single in enough time, there's a good chance it might be my #1 single of the year. "Come Clean" will do very well.

"Overdrive" by Katy Rose will probably stay in the Top 10 for at least several months- maybe enough to put her near the top of 2004's best.

The 3rd single from Hotel Paper may not hit #1, maybe not even crack the yearend Top 10.

The 2nd single from Coverage will probably be a strong #1 (if there is one :) )

[Devil Marlena Nylund]

Oh yes! A prediction I made a few weeks back. Beth Hart's 'Leave The Light On' may be the 'Clocks' of 2004. I'll probably get her CD thus her album may be my favourite of 2004.
If Martina Sorbara releases her new CD, she's definately up for all top honours.

[JCMF3]

The said:

There was not one rap #1 in 2003. I'm expecting atleast one in 2004.

I thought "Paradise" hit #1 on your chart? I would consider that a rap song, but maybe you don't...

Anyways, here is what I think:

1) I have a bad feeling 2004 will not feature a song from Celine Dion on the chart. However, I am starting to get into "Stand By Your Side" (late, I know), so who knows.
2) I think that Christian music will continue to make an impact on my chart, especially now that I co-host a Christian Rock show on my college's radio station and thus can score free singles!
3) I think a lot more of the "teen pop" acts will make some resurgence onto my chart. Right now, Jessica Simpson, Nick Lachey, Clay Aiken, and Britney Spears are all doing well on the chart, and future singles from these artists might have a good shot.
4) Janet Jackson might make her first chart appearance since November 2001 when Someone to Call My Love fell off the chart. It all depends on what direction this new single goes though.
5) I consider my chart to be well-rounded in music genres, and I think that will continue.

[Devil Marlena Nylund]

JCMF3 said:

5) I consider my chart to be well-rounded in music genres, and I think that will continue.

I thought your chart was a pop chart? Therefore it's only one genre.

[Deleted]

JCMF3 said:

I thought "Paradise" hit #1 on your chart? I would consider that a rap song, but maybe you don't...

That hit #1 on November 28, 2002. While it spent nine non-consecutive weeks at #1, running into 2003, I don't consider it to have hit #1 in 2003, because it didn't.

[Devil Marlena Nylund]

The said:

That hit #1 on November 28, 2002. While it spent nine non-consecutive weeks at #1, running into 2003, I don't consider it to have hit #1 in 2003, because it didn't.

Yes it did. 9 weeks after November 28, 2002 is sometime in February 2003 so even if it was consecutive, it still was #1 during a period in 2003.

[Deleted]

The said:

Yes it did. 9 weeks after November 28, 2002 is sometime in February 2003 so even if it was consecutive, it still was #1 during a period in 2003.

Okay, if it makes you guys happier, I meant "No rap songs HIT #1 in 2003".

[allow that]

Ha, bumping this back up... kinda funny to look at the predictions.... how accurate was everyone?



Here's mine:

Jersey said:

Also, because I'm living in Italy from january til May, I expect:

• At least 1 or 2 euro-techno #1's LOL

Ha, did NOT happen. And I can honestly say that I hear more techno in NYC than I did in Italy...

[/li][li]At least 2 Italian language #1's[/quote]
I was right here... I had 2 Italian #1's... Nek "Almeno stavolta" and Tiziano Ferro "Sere nere"

[/li][li]Something along the lines of Dido's "Life For Rent" or Britney's "Toxic" to hit #1, as they'll likely be much bigger in Europe than in the USA[/li][/ul][/quote]

I was right on the button with "Toxic"! It was huge in Italy, and that plus how much I loved the song got it to #1 on my chart (a first for Britney). It did end up being just as big in the States though. The Dido song I mentioned also made my Top 10, peaking at #7.

Overall, I guessed semi-decently!

[Deleted]

Had to go back and edit two things. There were seventeen #1's last year, not eighteen. Also, Mariah didn't hold the record I gave her credit for.

The said:

There were eighteen #1's in 2003.  I'm expecting next year to break the all time record with more than twenty #1's.

So far I've had eleven #1's.  I'd need nine more within the next twenty weeks to break twenty #1's.  It's unlikely, but not impossible.

The said:

Last year I said that I would have more pop/rock #1's than ever and I certainly did.  Almost half of my #1's in 2003 were pop/rock.  I expect this trend to continue.

So far this year, four out of the eleven #1's have been pop or rock.  My #1's still remain to be mainly urban adult based, but four is still more pop/rock #1's than in 2001 and 2002.

The said:

There was not one rap #1 in 2003.  I'm expecting atleast one in 2004.

G-Unit's "Wanna Get To Know You" hit #1 in late January.

The said:

There were no #1 debuts in 2003.  I'm expecting atleast one in 2004.

Fantasia's "I Believe" and Anita Baker's "You're My Everything" both debuted at #1 this year.

The said:

Janet Jackson will score a #1 with atleast one of the singles from her new album.

This is looking highly unlikely, unless she re-releases the album.  Her highest peak with "Damita Jo" is the #4 peak of "I Want You".

The said:

Janet Jackson will beat the record currently held by Mariah Carey and Amerie for most total weeks at #1.

Actually Mariah Carey doesn't hold the record.  She's one week behind Amerie.  Once again, Janet is not looking like she's going to pull this off.  She'd only need two weeks, but I don't think she's going to get a #1 with "Damita Jo" unless it's re-released.

The said:

Usher will hit #1 with the big ballad from his album.

Assuming the "big ballad" is "Burn," he didn't pull this off.  "Burn" peaked at #3.

The said:

Brandy will be the disappointment of 2004.  After scoring three Top 10 hits with "Full Moon," she will miss the Top 10 altogether with the singles from "B-Rocka".

Thankfully the album was renamed and thankfully, this didn't come true.  "Talk About Our Love" hit #7.  It's still to be seen if "Who Is She 2 U" can go Top 10.  It currently sits at #21.

[Joe1240]

Joe1240 said:

My predictions for my top twenty in 2004-
-I think there could be more number ones than this year as there are only 10 number ones in 2003 on my chart

-Kylie could gain her 2nd number one on the chart with little to no challenge on the chart in that time period when the song comes out.

-Rock music will fare better on my chart than it did in 2003. I expect a Rock song to be number one for the first time since 2001.

-Janet Jackson could make a big challenge to any female artist on the chart gain number one on the charts.

-Rap Music will decline on my chart and more R&B music wil start to reappear and there be many more R&B top 5 hits on the chart.


These all I can think of for now.

So far there has been 7 number ones in 2004 3 less than last year this still could happen....

No Rock song has hit number one yet on the chart. Blink 182's "Feeling This" was closest hitting #2 on the charts in febuary.

Janet Jackson has been no big challenge to any artist on the chart and never hit number one in 2004. "Just A Little While" peaked at #2 and "I Want You" peaked at #3 and fell fast. "All Nite[Don't Stop]" doesn't look like it will chart anytime soon.

Rap Music hasn't declined on the chart at all. Lloyd Banks "On Fire" and Kayne West's "All Falls Down" both hit number one on the chart. Usher and Beyonce are the only R&B artist hitting top 5 this year.

Kylie Minogue didn't even reach the top spot or even get near it as "Slow" peaked at #16 on the chart and the followups missed the chart.

[dragoneyez]

dragoneyez said:

- It will be a bad year for music, overall. And through the rest of the year, several good songs will hold #1 longer than usual.

Overall, 2004 has been a bad year for music, but at least its been better than last year. However, there have actually been more #1s in the same amount of time. (12 #1's through 8/18/03; 13 #1's through 8/18/04)

dragoneyez said:

- A song featured on a soundtrack to a blockbuster movie will come out and probably become huge in late spring / early summer. There has been a big soundtrack song almost ever year (2002's Hero / 2003's BM2L).

Two songs could satisfy this, both of which come from Amy Lee. The first, "My Immortal," was featured on the Daredevil soundtrack last year and spent one week at #1 (also spent 42 weeks on the chart). The second, "Broken," is featured on the Punisher soundtrack and spent four weeks at #1 (and is still charting).

dragoneyez said:

- A music veteran will return in a big way. Possibly Dr. Dre?

Hasn't quite happened [yet]... The Beastie Boys did return with "Ch-Check It Out," which peaked at #8 and is currently in its 16th week on and resting at #21. Green Day also returned recently with "American Idiot," which made a huge debut at #19 and rose twelve spots to #7 this week - its second week on. I think Dre really is dead. Detox has been in the works forever, and I've just about given up on him saving rap.

dragoneyez said:

- #1 song of the year will come in the first quarter (or may already be on the chart now), obviously. The #1 song of 2003 debuted in early February, and the #1 song of 2002 debuted in November of 2001.

Not much of a stretch. The three current contenders for top song of the year: Breaking the Habit, Megalomaniac, and My Immortal; all debuted in the first half of the year (in the case of Mega... and MI, both debuted in late 2003).

dragoneyez said:

Predicted 2003 #1s:

AC/DC - ?

God knows when we'll hear from AC/DC again, so this is doubtful.

dragoneyez said:

Audioslave - I Am the Highway

Nope. A modest #4.

dragoneyez said:

Dr. Dre - ?

One can only hope...

dragoneyez said:

Evanescence - My Immortal

Only spent one week at the summit, but it did manage to spend 42 weeks on.

dragoneyez said:

Linkin Park - Numb

Three weeks at the top, though it only deserved one or two.

dragoneyez said:

U2 - ?

Still waiting.

[Devil Marlena Nylund]

Boy, was I wrong. Although Beth did last onto my Top 100 for about half of the year (up until maybe June or July), I don't consider her track among the biggest of 2004 so far and I don't own her CD yet with that song on it. She also didn't follow it up.

[JCMF3]

Here's a look at my predictions:

JCMF3 said:

1) I have a bad feeling 2004 will not feature a song from Celine Dion on the chart.  However, I am starting to get into "Stand By Your Side" (late, I know), so who knows.

"Stand By Your Side" & "You & I" were both top 40 hits.

2) I think that Christian music will continue to make an impact on my chart, especially now that I co-host a Christian Rock show on my college's radio station and thus can score free singles!

This definitely happened, including more #1s from Christian artists including Switchfoot & Warren Barfield.

3) I think a lot more of the "teen pop" acts will make some resurgence onto my chart.  Right now, Jessica Simpson, Nick Lachey, Clay Aiken, and Britney Spears are all doing well on the chart, and future singles from these artists might have a good shot.

Jessica Simpson, Clay Aiken, & Britney Spears all had followups to hits that first charted in 2003 chart in 2004, including Britney's #1 smash "Toxic" which tied the most weeks @ #1 on my chart. Nick Lachey never scored another hit, however. Plus, newcomers Ashlee Simpson & Ryan Cabrera (who can be considered "teen acts") are making huge splashes on the chart.

4) Janet Jackson might make her first chart appearance since November 2001 when Someone to Call My Lover fell off the chart.  It all depends on what direction this new single goes though.

Janet peaked at #32 with "Just A Little While" but that is it.

5) I consider my chart to be well-rounded in music genres, and I think that will continue.

And it continues to be well-rounded!

[JCMF3]

The said:

I thought your chart was a pop chart? Therefore it's only one genre.

My chart is not just a "pop chart". I have music from Christian, AC, RHY, and alternative make impacts on my chart. I do not try to listen to just KISS-FM for my music.