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Post by ted11804 on Dec 1, 2003 8:44:20 GMT -5
Time is flying by and we're already onto the next chart. Here are some comments/opinions on the first update:
Let's just get the worst part imo over:
Fefe Dobson lost her bullet! :'( :'( Some stations are never gonna learn to add newcomers.
Outkast keeps his strong bullet, up to 8874 already. He is definitely breaking 9000 spins. Is 9500 or 10000 out of the question?
No Doubt and Nickelback are getting very strong bullets (around 700.) "Someday" and "It's My Life" will be the Top 3 with "Hey Ya" in January.
Fountains of Wayne finally falls out of the Top 10....WHY DOES LIL JON HAVE A BULLET?!?!?! My station never even added him!
Liz Phair has lost her steam....maybe she won't go Top 10 after all. Matchbox Twenty looking shabby as well. Staind, Jessica Simpson, Enrique Iglesias, Dido, Eamon, and Linkin Park are all risiing slowly but surely. I thought Fuel was hand-in-hand with Dido but now they suddenly have a bulllet less than 100.
On a brighter note, Michelle Branch was recharged and is now up to +200. Outkast and Kelis have VERY, VERY strong bullets and should be Top 10 shortly. (#24 and #27)
I am so happy for Kiley Dean and Dashboard Confessional.....they made it and are coming in strong! (from what they've been through during the past few weeks.)
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Crushcrushchris
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Post by Crushcrushchris on Dec 1, 2003 9:09:16 GMT -5
I think 10,000 is out of the question. I wonder has 9000 ever been broken? Probably, but not many times. At the pace he's going Andre 3000'll hit 9500+. I have a feeling that Hey Ya will be number 1 for the next 2 months.
The way Milkshake's moving, I think it'll hit the top 10 in 2 weeks. Same with Big Boi.
And looking at the top 10 now, it looks like rap/hip hop r&b is falling out of it for a little while.
Get Low might hit the top 10, but it's slowing down. Unfortunate for Matchbox Twenty that the song's slowing down, I figured they'd hit the top 15 and maybe even top 10, but it doesn't look like it'll happen. Linkin Park is a surprise to me. I figured that song wasn't going to do well at all on pop radio.
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crash46
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Post by crash46 on Dec 1, 2003 9:50:26 GMT -5
Oh my god, Outkast is going to be #1 for the rest of time. It's too bad...the song rules and they don't deserve this. People are going to be scheduling doctors appointments every time this song comes on the radio before too long. I sure hope they can string a few more hits together. "The Way You Move"s gain is a sign of hope.
I'm growing weary of "Suga Suga" and I barely ever listen to pop anymore. It's everywhere else that I'm exposed to it. At least the song doesn't suck.
Is this Simple Pain's first top ten? I don't loathe this song the way I did for their first few singles, but I can't juxtapose that song with Pierre's vocals and take it seriously.
How did Stacie Orrico ever get so high up. I thought that was done 3 months ago. Same with Liz Phair. I think the same of "Why Can't I" as the majority of these pop fans thinks of "Get Low". Speaking of which, I'm pleased over its longevity. (and it did already make the top 10, Cfw828.)
I don't mind "Holidae In" but the novelty of the misspelled song title is dissolving very quickly.
Songs that really need to go away: "Invisible" and "So Far Away".
I don't like "Me Against The Music" but I'm happy that Madonna was able to prove everyone wrong with another big hit.
F*ck the newly weds show for jump starting Jessica's career. Stick a wooden stake through her already.
Whoa, I didn't even know Enrique even had a song out. A couple more weeks and I probably would have completely missed it.
I heard that "F**k it" song and I thought it was no good.
Any love for the Jay-Z song about to debut? Right here there is.
I heard Dashboard on a pop station the other day, sped up and pitch increased and it sounded like garbage. The "original" peaked at #3 on my chart. This is another one of those songs that really didn't need to cross over.
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Crushcrushchris
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Post by Crushcrushchris on Dec 1, 2003 10:04:49 GMT -5
I'm surprised that it did hit the top 10 because it's still got a bullet. I follow the charts, just not all the time :)
Madonna can still get a hit, but it won't be from American Life that's for sure.
And LOL at the Outkast comment.
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irice22
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Post by irice22 on Dec 1, 2003 12:41:47 GMT -5
Too bad Fefe lost her bullet, "Take Me Away" had potential to be huge!
Will she actually be given credit for "Me Against the Music"?
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mst3k
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Post by mst3k on Dec 1, 2003 13:25:16 GMT -5
I think 10,000 is out of the question. I wonder has 9000 ever been broken? **waits for radiorules to read this** ;) |
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Mega248
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Post by Mega248 on Dec 1, 2003 13:48:50 GMT -5
I'm surprised that it did hit the top 10 because it's still got a bullet. I follow the charts, just not all the time :) Well it's actually been bulletless for the past three or so weeks. It's just temporarily regained the bullet. |
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Mega248
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Post by Mega248 on Dec 1, 2003 14:13:24 GMT -5
Was "Dirrty" played on some syndicated show? It suddenly has a +117 gain and has even jumped back ahead of "Beautiful" in total spins.
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JCMF3
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Post by JCMF3 on Dec 1, 2003 15:12:47 GMT -5
Was "Dirrty" played on some syndicated show? It suddenly has a +117 gain and has even jumped back ahead of "Beautiful" in total spins. It could be a case of the "1 year ago" trend that sometimes happens. I noticed that about 1 year after a song is big, stations will begin playing it again in their recurrent rotation a decent number of times. This might be what is happening with Dirrty. |
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JCMF3
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Post by JCMF3 on Dec 1, 2003 15:16:03 GMT -5
I think 10,000 is out of the question. I wonder has 9000 ever been broken? Probably, but not many times. At the pace he's going Andre 3000'll hit 9500+. I have a feeling that Hey Ya will be number 1 for the next 2 months. Oh, in the past, 9000 has been exceeded MANY times, but of course, there has also been a varying number of pop stations on the panel, so that helped as well. The last song to break 9000 spins in a single week was Christina Aguilera's Beautiful in January 2003. Outkast looks WELL on its way to surpassing this 9000 mark too. As far as songs in the past, here are a few other recent songs that eclipsed the 9000 spin mark on pop: Eminem - Lose Yourself Nelly f/ Kelly Rowland - Dilemma Avril Lavigne - Complicated (broke the 10000 spin mark) Linkin Park - In The End Nickelback - How You Remind Me Pink - Get The Party Started |
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irice22
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Post by irice22 on Dec 1, 2003 16:05:14 GMT -5
Eminem - Lose Yourself Nelly f/ Kelly Rowland - Dilemma Avril Lavigne - Complicated (broke the 10000 spin mark) Linkin Park - In The End Nickelback - How You Remind Me Pink - Get The Party Started What kept "Get This Party Started" from #1, "How You Remind Me"? |
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Hervard
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Post by Hervard on Dec 1, 2003 16:20:22 GMT -5
You got it!
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George Tropicana
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Post by George Tropicana on Dec 1, 2003 17:08:13 GMT -5
I am so happy for Kiley Dean and Dashboard Confessional.....they made it and are coming in strong! (from what they've been through during the past few weeks.) Me too! Let's hold a Kiley Dean party when she goes Top 40! My sympathies go with Willa Ford's "A Toast To Men"! A perfectly great tune for the holidays losing steam so fast. :( It's not going to go Top 40 from the looks of it now. |
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Post by laguy03 on Dec 1, 2003 23:29:32 GMT -5
Christina's "The Voice Within" only gained 5 spins from yesterday. what happened to it? It was gaining more than 50 spins a day until the last few days.
And I hope Kelis makes top 10 soon. It is already a hug hit. And I think Andre can hit 9400 but not much higher
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BillboardBoy
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Post by BillboardBoy on Dec 1, 2003 23:43:42 GMT -5
Oh my god, Outkast is going to be #1 for the rest of time. It's too bad...the song rules and they don't deserve this. People are going to be scheduling doctors appointments every time this song comes on the radio before too long. I sure hope they can string a few more hits together. "The Way You Move"s gain is a sign of hope.
I can't tell. Is this a compliment to Outkast or not?
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Mega248
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Post by Mega248 on Dec 2, 2003 0:22:59 GMT -5
Oh my god, Outkast is going to be #1 for the rest of time. It's too bad...the song rules and they don't deserve this. People are going to be scheduling doctors appointments every time this song comes on the radio before too long. I sure hope they can string a few more hits together. "The Way You Move"s gain is a sign of hope.I can't tell. Is this a compliment to Outkast or not? Yes, it's a compliment to Outkast. He's just against having their songs played 110X a week on pop stations. |
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ct2874
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Post by ct2874 on Dec 2, 2003 13:56:51 GMT -5
I'm growing weary of "Suga Suga" and I barely ever listen to pop anymore. It's everywhere else that I'm exposed to it. At least the song doesn't suck. I don't mind "Holidae In" but the novelty of the misspelled song title is dissolving very quickly. Whoa, I didn't even know Enrique even had a song out. A couple more weeks and I probably would have completely missed it. I heard that "F**k it" song and I thought it was no good. To respond to a few of those statements, I wouldn't mind "Suga Suga" too much if it wasn't for the subject matter of the song in my opinion. I want to say that the intentional misspelling by Chingy is so that he can avoid any legal ramifications by the actual hotel chain, but I'm not certain. I've heard the new Enrique song, and to me it's rather unlistenable. As far as Eamon, crash, consider yourself unlucky that he decided to place a subtitle with the song, otherwise I don't think it would even be in the top fifty. |
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Post by Ragin on Dec 2, 2003 14:51:46 GMT -5
To respond to a few of those statements, I wouldn't mind "Suga Suga" too much if it wasn't for the subject matter of the song in my opinion. I want to say that the intentional misspelling by Chingy is so that he can avoid any legal ramifications by the actual hotel chain, but I'm not certain. I've heard the new Enrique song, and to me it's rather unlistenable. As far as Eamon, crash, consider yourself unlucky that he decided to place a subtitle with the song, otherwise I don't think it would even be in the top fifty. Enrique's lead off single doesn't even come close to ANY of his releases off the last album. That's not a good sign for him. I actually enjoyed his last three releases, well except for the girly screaming at the end of Don't Turn Out The Lights |
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JCMF3
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Post by JCMF3 on Dec 2, 2003 16:47:56 GMT -5
Yikes! Looking at the current chart today, if Fountains of Wayne lose about 1000 spins from last week (I think they ended last week with ~4700 spins), then the song could fall 10-20! :o Wow, when was the last time a song had that big of a drop out of the top 10 on the R&R CHR/POP chart?
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irice22
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Post by irice22 on Dec 2, 2003 16:51:33 GMT -5
There are a lot of things that have been surprising me on the charts. Such Sheryl Crow, P!nk, and in particukar Dido doing so well. I think Dido's song is pretty boring and I can't seem to understand why it is doing so well on pop. But I think it's more of a good thing than a bad thing.
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EvanJ
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Post by EvanJ on Dec 2, 2003 17:28:43 GMT -5
Yikes! Looking at the current chart today, if Fountains of Wayne lose about 1000 spins from last week (I think they ended last week with ~4700 spins), then the song could fall 10-20! :o Wow, when was the last time a song had that big of a drop out of the top 10 on the R&R CHR/POP chart? Britney featuring Madonna (12 this week) was 18 the last time I checked, so it could fall 10 or more spots. 11-20 is close enough that it's possible to fall that far. If a song fell 10 spots from 1 to 11, then it would be a big deal. |
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Post by ted11804 on Dec 2, 2003 17:57:13 GMT -5
What's the biggest fall from #1? 1-5? 1-4? When was the last time a song fell 1-4 or more?
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Post by Eyeball on Dec 2, 2003 18:18:17 GMT -5
"Lady Marmalade" fell 1-8 on AT40.
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Post by ted11804 on Dec 2, 2003 18:23:27 GMT -5
I thought it fell 1-2-8! And why do I faintly remember there being an argument about this back at the old R&R board?
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Hervard
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Post by Hervard on Dec 2, 2003 18:42:45 GMT -5
The song that took the biggest fall from #1 in the history of the R&R CHR chart was "Walk Like An Egyptian" by the Bangles, which fell 1-11 in early 1987 and this was the second chart of the year, so it couldn't have been the holiday break that caused it. There were also several songs that fell from 1-9: "Rock Me Amadeus" by Falco in 1986 and "Get Outta My Dreams, Get Into My Car" by Billy Ocean and "Dirty Diana" by Michael Jackson in 1988. Songs that fell from 1-8 include "Everybody Wants To Rule The World" by Tears For Fears and "The Power Of Love" by Huey Lewis & The News, both in 1985, "Bad" by Michael Jackson in 1987 and "I'll Be There" by Mariah Carey in 1992. I'm sure there are more, but that's all I can remember.
BTW, "Lady Marmalade" fell from 1-8 on AT40 but not R&R because the AT40 was using a different chart during the first half of 2001. It spent one more week atop the AT40 chart than it did on R&R. When it dropped from #1, AT40 was just weeks away from reverting back to the R&R chart.
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Post by Devil Marlena Nylund on Dec 2, 2003 19:52:02 GMT -5
It's weird that Fountains of Wayne might never spend a single week in the 19-11 area of the chart.
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Post by ted11804 on Dec 2, 2003 21:00:40 GMT -5
Yeah, if their losses speed up.
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JCMF3
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Post by JCMF3 on Dec 2, 2003 21:19:18 GMT -5
Britney featuring Madonna (12 this week) was 18 the last time I checked, so it could fall 10 or more spots. 11-20 is close enough that it's possible to fall that far. If a song fell 10 spots from 1 to 11, then it would be a big deal. On this week's (12/5/03) chart, Britney and Madonna fall 12-21. |
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Post by Matt4319 on Dec 3, 2003 0:41:31 GMT -5
Yikes! Looking at the current chart today, if Fountains of Wayne lose about 1000 spins from last week (I think they ended last week with ~4700 spins), then the song could fall 10-20! :o Wow, when was the last time a song had that big of a drop out of the top 10 on the R&R CHR/POP chart? It will be tough for Fountains of Wayne to fall to #20, because they'll have to get by Michelle Branch. Using FOW's current trend of -900 and extrapolating from last Sunday's final update, "Breathe" will have to increase its trend from +218 to +341 to get ahead of FOW. If FOW falls to -950, "Breathe" will still have to get to +291. My predictions for 11-20: 13 11 Lil' Jon/East Side Boys 14 12 Liz Phair 12 13 Maroon 5 20 14 Ludacris 18 15 Clay Aiken 16 16 Christina Aguilera 19 17 Chingy f/Snoop Dogg & Ludacris 17 18 Matchbox Twenty 10 19 Fountains of Wayne 21 20 Michelle Branch |
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EvanJ
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Post by EvanJ on Dec 3, 2003 8:20:47 GMT -5
Mediabase reset all last week spins to zero. If somebody saves the upcoming final update we can get trends for many songs by comparing to the R and R chart (or comparing to last week's final update if somebody has that). This is assuming that that the last week spins go up one day at a time for seven days, going past the final update. If somebody saves every days' last week total starting tomorrow, we'll have day-by-day spins for songs for seven consecutive days.
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