WORLDWIDE estimations

[zago]

Best sellers of 2006 releases TO DATE
Red Hot Chili Peppers Stadium Arcadium 6.941.000 7.461.575
Soundtrack High School Musical 6.707.000 7.210.025
Justin Timberlake FutureSex / LoveSounds 6.652.000 7.150.900
Nelly Furtado Loose 6.259.000 6.728.425
Beyoncé B'Day 5.157.000 5.543.775
Pink I'm Not Dead 5.127.000 5.511.525
The Beatles Love 4.596.000 4.940.700
Rascal Flatts Me And My Gang 4.435.000 4.767.625
Snow Patrol Eyes Open 4.336.000 4.661.200
Evanescence The Open Door 4.177.000 4.490.275



!!UPDATED!! Full List at www.worldwidealbums.tk/


TOP of 2007 RELEASE to date
Linkin Park Minutes To Midnight 3.824.000 4.110.800
Avril Lavigne The Best Damn Thing 3.681.000 3.957.075
Norah Jones Not Too Late 3.466.000 3.725.950
Mika Life In Cartoon Motion 2.973.000 3.195.975
Michael Bublé Call Me Irresponsible 2.465.000 2.649.875
Maroon 5 It Won't Be Soon Before Long 2.286.000 2.457.450
Fall Out Boy Infinity On High 2.005.000 2.155.375
Bon Jovi Lost Highway 1.911.000 2.054.325
Rihanna Good Girl Gone Bad 1.606.000 1.726.450
Timbaland Timbaland Presents Shock Value 1.461.000 1.570.575




!!UPDATED!! Full List at www.worldwidealbums.tk/


- more lists with personal Best Album list year by year and '80 -'90 Songs list with Youtube links and the first part of Music Genres Guide.

[YoYoCanUSeeMe?!]

zago said:

!!! Official comunication (:lol: :lol: )

sometimes labels release some sales data, when i see it i compare that data with my estimations, usually the two data is really similar, but sometimes the difference is too big.

is the case of Nelly Furtado and Justin Timberlake:

Labels release an article where they said:
Justin Timberlake FutureSex / LoveSounds 6,6M
Nelly Furtado Loose 6,1M

in this case I should modify my estimations, sorry for NF and JT timberlake fans but i want to make my site more reliable possible.

so please don't ask something like "why Nelly Furtado was at almost 8m and now only 6" or something like that.Thanks!

In this case i will delete 700k at JT and 1m at NF.


for the future if you find an article from labels with big difference from my estimations (like more than 500k) please say it to me :wink:
thanks!

are u sure that the label estimations are actual ?!

[zago]

yoyonelly said:

zago said:

!!! Official comunication (:lol: :lol: )

sometimes labels release some sales data, when i see it i compare that data with my estimations, usually the two data is really similar, but sometimes the difference is too big.

is the case of Nelly Furtado and Justin Timberlake:

Labels release an article where they said:
Justin Timberlake FutureSex / LoveSounds 6,6M
Nelly Furtado Loose 6,1M

in this case I should modify my estimations, sorry for NF and JT timberlake fans but i want to make my site more reliable possible.

so please don't ask something like "why Nelly Furtado was at almost 8m and now only 6" or something like that.Thanks!

In this case i will delete 700k at JT and 1m at NF.


for the future if you find an article from labels with big difference from my estimations (like more than 500k) please say it to me :wink:
thanks!

are u sure that the label estimations are actual ?!

yes.
the previous data seems to me always a bit "big".

[Acid Eyes]

You have been getting your data from Media Traffic, right?

While I would not deny that some of the numbers on the United World Chart are a bit inflated, I can only assume that all the numbers are inflated, not just Nelly's or Justin's. This may be partly due to all the numbers being rounded to the nearest thousand.

So, if you are going to decrease the sales for those albums, you would need to decrease the numbers for all albums (keeping the ratio the same).

UWC is not a shipment chart, it is a sales chart. Labels are not inflating those numbers. Mistakes occur due to rounding, but that happens across the board, not just to a few select albums.

[slirk]

I reckon the labels estimates are full of crap - 'loose' has been certified triple platinum by mediatraffic for the past 10 weeks and has sold much more then 259,000 in those 10 weeks. It's been near 100k for most of those weeks.

[itsbeenaweek]

slirk said:

I reckon the labels estimates are full of crap - 'loose' has been certified triple platinum by mediatraffic for the past 10 weeks and has sold much more then 259,000 in those 10 weeks. It's been near 100k for most of those weeks.

You realize Mediatraffic isn't an official chart, right?

[WotUNeed]

aceticacid said:

You have been getting your data from Media Traffic, right?

While I would not deny that some of the numbers on the United World Chart are a bit inflated, I can only assume that all the numbers are inflated, not just Nelly's or Justin's. This may be partly due to all the numbers being rounded to the nearest thousand.

So, if you are going to decrease the sales for those albums, you would need to decrease the numbers for all albums (keeping the ratio the same).

UWC is not a shipment chart, it is a sales chart. Labels are not inflating those numbers. Mistakes occur due to rounding, but that happens across the board, not just to a few select albums.

But then there's absolutely no way of verifying the credibility of any of the numbers, because who knows what the real ratio would be for each? It's very unlikely they've all been inflated or deflated by the same amount. It makes much more sense to do as zago is doing and make sure that all numbers are sourceable.

[zago]

aceticacid said:

You have been getting your data from Media Traffic, right?

While I would not deny that some of the numbers on the United World Chart are a bit inflated, I can only assume that all the numbers are inflated, not just Nelly's or Justin's. This may be partly due to all the numbers being rounded to the nearest thousand.

So, if you are going to decrease the sales for those albums, you would need to decrease the numbers for all albums (keeping the ratio the same).

UWC is not a shipment chart, it is a sales chart. Labels are not inflating those numbers. Mistakes occur due to rounding, but that happens across the board, not just to a few select albums.

not all sales are inflated..maybe they tend to overstimate also only one of country (example germany) and then the albums huge here tend to be a bit inflated:
it happened already sometimes that the estimations are almost the same of some labels release or some call "official".
someone say that mediatraffic overstimate the first weeks, i think no.

this is the first case that i've see where someone (not only geffen but Sonhy one month a go talk about 5,5m., not almost 8m) released an article with such different salesdata..
in more almost all the other albums if we try to add country by country the sales that we have the result is always really near to the data.
in Nelly Furtado case i've always seen something strange..2m in USA, almost but still not over 3m in Europe, around 500k in canada..nice sales in south america and oceania, not so good in Asia..but it can't put it to 7,7m...honestly.

however i've just delete a -1m..for next week i continue to add her sales (taken from Mediatraffic if it is in top 40, if no estimate it).

and there is also the fact of adding 7,5%..i've always say that the real sales is impossible to have but could stay in the interval between minimun and maximun :
last week was
7.180.000-real data-7.718.500
this week
6.259.000-real data-6.728.425
as u see before the data in teory could be also 7.1m (the minimun), now also 6,7m (the maximum)..there still isn't so difference..only 400k.

[455555]

Mediatraffic is FAR from official. It's just some random guy doing estimates.

[Acid Eyes]

Realistically though, there is no such thing as an official chart.

[Player211]

455555 said:

Mediatraffic is FAR from official. It's just some random guy doing estimates.

ReallY? I always thought it was 100% accurate.

[zago]

player211 said:

455555 said:

Mediatraffic is FAR from official. It's just some random guy doing estimates.

ReallY? I always thought it was 100% accurate.

everybody knows that isn't official, but is the best way (at least considering only weeks in top40..) to have an idea of albums sales worldwide.

[bogglethemind]

You shouldn't change estimates for JUST Justin and Nelly but keep everyone else the same. That makes no sense because then there's no consistency. If it's off for them, it's off for all. I think you should just keep doing what you were doing.

By the way, which article are you referencing? Because I just saw an article that said FS/LS was almost at 8 million worldwide.

[Acid Eyes]

^Agreed.

While UWC might not be an official chart, I doubt the people behind the chart specifically inflated the sales for Nelly and Justin.

[slirk]

itsbeenaweek said:

slirk said:

I reckon the labels estimates are full of crap - 'loose' has been certified triple platinum by mediatraffic for the past 10 weeks and has sold much more then 259,000 in those 10 weeks. It's been near 100k for most of those weeks.

You realize Mediatraffic isn't an official chart, right?

I always thought it was 100% accurate...There goes my theory..

[slirk]

Is worldwidealbums.tk more accurate then mediatraffic?

[itsbeenaweek]

slirk said:

Is worldwidealbums.tk more accurate then mediatraffic?

Nope.

[zago]

aceticacid said:

^Agreed.

While UWC might not be an official chart, I doubt the people behind the chart specifically inflated the sales for Nelly and Justin.

no, is possible that their estimations have some errors that could advantaje some albums instead of others.
for example if their over estimated the position #10 on german chart (but estimate good postion #9 an #11), an album that spent a lot of week at position #10 will be overstimate, an album that spent a lot of week at positions #9 and #11 will be well estimated.
or is also possible that they tend to overstimate some top 10 charts, so albums like nelly furtado or JT that spent a lot of week in high positions will result overstimated.
i've doubt too, but i look the results..for example the Rhcp or HSM data is near to the real data for sure, NF and JF always sound strange, as I say before for example NF is :
2mUSA,not yet 3m in Europe,500-600k canada,quite good in South america and australia, but for example in Japan have really ugly sales..so the total is more possible around 6,2-6,7.
the same for JT, yes is 3,5m only in USA, but is only aorund 2m in Europe, 300k in Canada, good in oceania,but under 100k in Japan..
how could that 2 albums be over 7m..almost 8?

[zago]

itsbeenaweek said:

slirk said:

Is worldwidealbums.tk more accurate then mediatraffic?

Nope.

I use the same data for weeks in top 40..but then continue it.
for example for mediatraffic Paramore album have a total of 37.000 (1 week in chart), from my site is 217.000...
take your conclusions

[bogglethemind]

I'm still wondering what your source for Justin and Nelly is. Do you have a link to an article?

[zago]

bogglethemind said:

I'm still wondering what your source for Justin and Nelly is. Do you have a link to an article?

www.ukmix.org/forums/viewtopic.php?t=35574&postdays=0&postorder=asc&start=2100
geffen article, post by a Nelly Fan
as u see other chart and sales experts agree with it, and some nelly fans too.

[bogglethemind]

So you have no source for Justin but some random poster on UKMIX? His figures weren't even close for Nelly. How does that make him reliable?

[455555]

I don't see how it's possible for Nelly to have sold anything more than 6M. It's just foolish for anyone to think she's higher than that.

[Acid Eyes]

She sold 4.1 million in her four biggest markets (2 million US, 800k UK, 800k Germany, and 500k Canada). I know the album charted in at least 30 countries. Even if the album only sold an average of 100k in each of the remaining 26 countries, that's 6.7 million right there.

Again, I totally understand that the UWC is not 100% accurate, but all the albums on that chart would face the same margin of error.

[455555]

It sold 2M in the US and 3M in Europe [I'm trusting you Nelly fans, even though it's only certified 2xp], and 500k in Canada.

That's 5.5M. Just because it charted in 30 countries, you can't just assume it sold 100k in each country. Sales in South America are virtually non-existant these days. And I know that Nelly tanked in Asia, where sales aren't even that big to begin with besides Japan where she is a total bomb.

So what's left? Australia? I'm not sure how much she's sold there but at most it could push her to 6M.

And I agree that all albums on that chart are inflated but Nelly's numbers are just outrageous.

[Acid Eyes]

Is Russia included as part of Europe? If not, that's another 150k. 140k in Australia. 50k South Africa. 50k Mexico. 30k New Zealand. And it sold something in Japan and Taiwan. That's 6 million, without any South American countries considered.

[455555]

But even if it does add to 6M, it'll be maybe 6.2M with South American countries and that too is being generous.

6.2M is farrr off from the 7.7M that Mediatraffic suggests.

[455555]

Oh and the 6.2M that we've come up with is basically shipments, while the 7.7M mediatraffic says is supposedly actual sales.

[Acid Eyes]

I never go by the 7.5% inclusion that a lot of sites add to Media Traffic's sales. Just because MT only covers 92.5% of the world's sales does not mean albums are selling at the same rate in the excluded countries. MT has its sales around 7.1 million. MT also covers 65 different countries. Sure, we have the sales from major countries, but what about Sri Lanka? Philippines? Venezuela?

[455555]

Sri Lanka? Are you shittin me?

Fine. Let's add another 679 copies.

Like I said before, sales are DEAD in those places. I know that Platinum in the Philipines is like 5000. And Nelly never shows up on those charts anyway. She is NOT a superstar outside NA and Europe. Period.

I'd say her shipments are at 6.5M MAX. You're kidding yourself if you think it's more than that.