DuckHead
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Post by DuckHead on Sept 5, 2004 20:52:45 GMT -5
What will be the next # 1 song?
I think, and hope, that it will be Avril.
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Deleted
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Post by Deleted on Sept 5, 2004 20:54:06 GMT -5
I think, and hope, that it will be Avril.
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allow that
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Post by allow that on Sept 5, 2004 20:57:23 GMT -5
I think there's still a possibilty for Maroon 5 to pick up again and take it for a week or two.... but at this point it's more likely that Avril has it. And that's who I voted for.
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Evergreen
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Post by Evergreen on Sept 5, 2004 21:08:40 GMT -5
I give you a hint. She's "So damn hot but so young"!!!!!
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Post by krazymack on Sept 5, 2004 21:11:42 GMT -5
I really hope Avril gets it. "My Happy Ending," is a great song.
I really, really, really love the video too. She looks absolutely beautiful in it. Avril has lovely eyes. :)
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allow that
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Post by allow that on Sept 5, 2004 21:11:56 GMT -5
I give you a hint. She's "So damn hot but so young"!!!!! Ciara? I don't want to rule her out yet as a potential future #1, but even if she gets there, I think there will be at least one song in between.
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JayBoozer
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Post by JayBoozer on Sept 5, 2004 21:23:09 GMT -5
Yeah, Ciara may get to #1, but someone has to sneak in one or two weeks first after Ashlee gives up. It's so hard to tell who that will be right now, though. MHE could get there now that Maroon 5 has dwindled so much, but BEP could also come from behind. I don't think there's a chance that Ryan Cabrera will get #1. Right now I see this as the probabliity:
Avril: 40 % Maroon 5: 30 % BEP: 20 % Ryan Cabrera: 10 %
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allow that
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Post by allow that on Sept 5, 2004 21:26:26 GMT -5
Right now I see this as the probabliity: Avril: 40 % Maroon 5: 30 % BEP: 20 % Ryan Cabrera: 10 % That seems about right.
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laguy03
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Post by laguy03 on Sept 5, 2004 22:26:34 GMT -5
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Post by bluenote on Sept 6, 2004 0:25:11 GMT -5
BEP!
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Gold Soundz
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Post by Gold Soundz on Sept 6, 2004 0:32:23 GMT -5
Avril. At least I hope so. This would be her most deserving number one by far. This is just as much of a classic as Complicated to me.
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irice22
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Post by irice22 on Sept 6, 2004 1:12:54 GMT -5
Avril, she really deserves it!
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Matt4319
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Post by Matt4319 on Sept 6, 2004 13:19:03 GMT -5
Ciara? I don't want to rule her out yet as a potential future #1, but even if she gets there, I think there will be at least one song in between. He's just voting for who he likes. If "Car Wash" had been an option, he would have voted for that.
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Evergreen
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Post by Evergreen on Sept 6, 2004 14:12:10 GMT -5
He's just voting for who he likes. If "Car Wash" had been an option, he would have voted for that. I'm glad you think you know me so well. And I obsolutely would not have voted for "Car Wash". When people assume they know what someone else is thinking or what their logic is they ALWAYS coming off looking stupid, as you cam off looking in the faulty assumption you made about my prediction. And I'm no the only person who voted for Ciara, so that gives your already weak argue even less validity. I picked Ciara because Avril has slowed down significantly over the last few weeks. It may look like Avril would be next, but that is that same thing everyone was saying about Maroon Five until they started to slow. Avril is slowing down at about the same pace. I highly doubt Avril will peak any higher than number 2. The next obvious choice is Ciara. She is the greatest gainer, and there are still stations that might pick her up that aren't playing it yet. The trend as of late is to pick up where Urban and Rhythmic left off, and Ciara is at the top of both of those formats, which bodes well for her at pop radio. Another reason I picked Ciara is because Ashlee is showing amazing staying power, and she isn't losing too much faster than Avirl and Maroon 5 are bulleting. All those factors added together is why I picked Ciara, not because "I like her". I may be wrong, but what if I am? It's all about what I was thinking at the time. It's a prediction, and even more importantly, it was MY prediction. You aren't in my head, and you don't know what I was thinking when I made it. So next time you'd be better off writing down your own thoughts instead of following me around like a lost puppy and giving commentary about mine. Thanks!
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Post by singingsparrow on Sept 6, 2004 14:27:27 GMT -5
I'm going to assume Maroon 5 will pick back up a little bit while Ashlee Simpson levels off on account of "Shadow" and takes #1 shortly before Avril does.
Maroon 5 I predict will sneak #1 for one week then Avril will commandeer the top spot for at least a month. Probably five weeks or so.
I doubt Ciara will be next. "Goodies" is still almost 4000 spins from "She Will be Loved" and about 3000 from "My Happy Ending".
Sincerely, Noah Eaton
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JayBoozer
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Post by JayBoozer on Sept 6, 2004 14:53:01 GMT -5
I'm glad you think you know me so well. And I obsolutely would not have voted for "Car Wash". When people assume they know what someone else is thinking or what their logic is they ALWAYS coming off looking stupid, as you cam off looking in the faulty assumption you made about my prediction. And I'm no the only person who voted for Ciara, so that gives your already weak argue even less validity. I picked Ciara because Avril has slowed down significantly over the last few weeks. It may look like Avril would be next, but that is that same thing everyone was saying about Maroon Five until they started to slow. Avril is slowing down at about the same pace. I highly doubt Avril will peak any higher than number 2. The next obvious choice is Ciara. She is the greatest gainer, and there are still stations that might pick her up that aren't playing it yet. The trend as of late is to pick up where Urban and Rhythmic left off, and Ciara is at the top of both of those formats, which bodes well for her at pop radio. Another reason I picked Ciara is because Ashlee is showing amazing staying power, and she isn't losing too much faster than Avirl and Maroon 5 are bulleting. All those factors added together is why I picked Ciara, not because "I like her". I may be wrong, but what if I am? It's all about what I was thinking at the time. It's a prediction, and even more importantly, it was MY prediction. You aren't in my head, and you don't know what I was thinking when I made it. So next time you'd be better off writing down your own thoughts instead of following me around like a lost puppy and giving commentary about mine. Thanks! Actually Ashlee's negative bullet is picking up, it's now in the -200's. Avril hasn't decreased quite as quickly as Maroon 5 has. She's gone gradually down from +700 to +400, while Maroon 5 went from close to +900 all the way down to +100. So I don't think Maroon 5 could go much farther then where it's at right now. Avril could steady out around +400, or +500 and therefore get #1 in maybe 2-3 weeks. While Ciara has a significant chance, just because she's the greatest gainer doesn't give her the next biggest chance. Kevin Lyttle was the greatest gainer at her spot at one time, and he only peaked inside the top 5.
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Matt4319
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Post by Matt4319 on Sept 6, 2004 15:14:06 GMT -5
I'm glad you think you know me so well. And I obsolutely would not have voted for "Car Wash". When people assume they know what someone else is thinking or what their logic is they ALWAYS coming off looking stupid, as you cam off looking in the faulty assumption you made about my prediction. And I'm no the only person who voted for Ciara, so that gives your already weak argue even less validity. I picked Ciara because Avril has slowed down significantly over the last few weeks. It may look like Avril would be next, but that is that same thing everyone was saying about Maroon Five until they started to slow. Avril is slowing down at about the same pace. I highly doubt Avril will peak any higher than number 2. The next obvious choice is Ciara. She is the greatest gainer, and there are still stations that might pick her up that aren't playing it yet. The trend as of late is to pick up where Urban and Rhythmic left off, and Ciara is at the top of both of those formats, which bodes well for her at pop radio. Another reason I picked Ciara is because Ashlee is showing amazing staying power, and she isn't losing too much faster than Avirl and Maroon 5 are bulleting. All those factors added together is why I picked Ciara, not because "I like her". I may be wrong, but what if I am? It's all about what I was thinking at the time. It's a prediction, and even more importantly, it was MY prediction. You aren't in my head, and you don't know what I was thinking when I made it. So next time you'd be better off writing down your own thoughts instead of following me around like a lost puppy and giving commentary about mine. Thanks! ROFL. I can't believe you took that so seriously.
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rowellfarm490
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Post by rowellfarm490 on Sept 6, 2004 20:38:13 GMT -5
Even though Maroon 5 has slowed down I think they will pick back up and sneak into the #1 position for a week or two. After that, Avril will take the top and be there for a while.
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Post by thedualityofman on Sept 6, 2004 20:54:47 GMT -5
You're surprised? People love to take shots at other people's opinions, and god forbid anyone say anything back. I can't say that I haven't been guilty of this at one time or another, but people loathe the thought of someone telling them that they're wrong. ROFL. I can't believe you took that so seriously.
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Matt4319
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Post by Matt4319 on Sept 6, 2004 21:28:52 GMT -5
You're surprised? People love to take shots at other people's opinions, and god forbid anyone say anything back. I can't say that I haven't been guilty of this at one time or another, but people loathe the thought of someone telling them that they're wrong. I expected him to reply, but not to write a freakin' essay. Anyway, I'm done with this. Let's get back on topic.
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Post by thedualityofman on Sept 6, 2004 21:32:22 GMT -5
Ok, on topic. Franz Ferdinand will own CHR with an iron fist and will be #1 for the rest of the year. That would be sweet if it actually happened. Better yet, if they released Michael and it was #1 on CHR for the rest of the year.
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crash46
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Post by crash46 on Sept 7, 2004 2:15:54 GMT -5
God, the number one song they have now is so horrible. Whatever it's gonna be better hurry the fuck up.
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Post by saddleup on Sept 7, 2004 2:26:11 GMT -5
I voted for Avril, because I can relate to that song and I think she did a good job writing it.
Goodies is a good song too. It's one of those songs you can't get out of your head, but I hope Avril claims the top spot.
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JayBoozer
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Post by JayBoozer on Sept 7, 2004 13:57:29 GMT -5
It's looking more and more likely that Avril will be #1. Her bullet increased a lot since yesterday and she's in the top 6 gainers.
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j
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Post by j on Sept 8, 2004 0:27:56 GMT -5
I'm glad you think you know me so well. And I obsolutely would not have voted for "Car Wash". When people assume they know what someone else is thinking or what their logic is they ALWAYS coming off looking stupid, as you cam off looking in the faulty assumption you made about my prediction. And I'm no the only person who voted for Ciara, so that gives your already weak argue even less validity. I picked Ciara because Avril has slowed down significantly over the last few weeks. It may look like Avril would be next, but that is that same thing everyone was saying about Maroon Five until they started to slow. Avril is slowing down at about the same pace. I highly doubt Avril will peak any higher than number 2. The next obvious choice is Ciara. She is the greatest gainer, and there are still stations that might pick her up that aren't playing it yet. The trend as of late is to pick up where Urban and Rhythmic left off, and Ciara is at the top of both of those formats, which bodes well for her at pop radio. Another reason I picked Ciara is because Ashlee is showing amazing staying power, and she isn't losing too much faster than Avirl and Maroon 5 are bulleting. All those factors added together is why I picked Ciara, not because "I like her". I may be wrong, but what if I am? It's all about what I was thinking at the time. It's a prediction, and even more importantly, it was MY prediction. You aren't in my head, and you don't know what I was thinking when I made it. So next time you'd be better off writing down your own thoughts instead of following me around like a lost puppy and giving commentary about mine. Thanks! Well, if you want to argue the facts... 1. No, Avril isn't slowing down. +488. 2. No, Ashlee isn't "showing amazing staying power". -284. 3. No, The trend as of late isn't "to pick up where Urban and Rhythmic left off". The trend this year on CHR/Pop is to let Pop songs reach #1 - Jessica Simpson, Britney Spears, JoJo, Ashlee Simpson have proven it and Avril Lavigne will continue this trend. 4. Ciara is over 4000 spins away. She would have to gain 1000 spins a week to reach #1 in 4 weeks. That would give Ashlee 6 weeks at #1 and that's highly improbable considering she can't even get any higher than 8500 spins.
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JayBoozer
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Post by JayBoozer on Sept 8, 2004 5:43:07 GMT -5
^ If anything Avril is picking up speed. Up to +536 now. She could pass Maroon 5 within a week or week and a half, and Ashlee within 2.
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j
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Post by j on Sept 8, 2004 6:46:31 GMT -5
I'm glad. Looks like my theory of "Once it's obvious what the next #1 will be, that song will pick up speed" is further proven.
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allow that
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Post by allow that on Sept 8, 2004 10:26:49 GMT -5
I'm glad. Looks like my theory of "Once it's obvious what the next #1 will be, that song will pick up speed" is further proven. Yeah it is getting more obvious that Avril is the next #1. I want MHE to hit #1 but it's looking less and less likely that Maron 5 can sneak a week in there too. :(
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Mega248
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Post by Mega248 on Sept 8, 2004 14:23:50 GMT -5
Better yet, if they released Michael and it was #1 on CHR for the rest of the year. But then everyone would be sick to death of it. You wouldn't want that, would you?
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allow that
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Post by allow that on Sept 13, 2004 10:39:15 GMT -5
And now it's looking more and more like Maroon 5 will get #1 next afterall!
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