CHR Pop-Chart 02-11-2005

[95-7 Ben FM]

Sticky please...


Almost time for recurrent for My Boo, Welcome To My Life, Lose My Breath, and Baby It's You.

Next week's Top 40 hopefuls:
It's Like That
When It Comes
Signs
Mr. Brightside

[jmason]

lw TW Artist Title TW lw Move
1 1 MARIO Let Me Love You 8572 8410 162 65.914
2 2 CIARA 1,2 Step (f/Missy E... 8346 7798 548 61.072
7 3 KELLY CLARKSON Since U Been Gone 6826 5931 895 54.729


"1,2 Step" may make #1 next week, can SUBG reach #1 I hope so!

9 6 GREEN DAY Boulevard of Broken ... 6572 5688 884 52.789

"1,2 Step" will get it for 2 weeks, then Clarkson will get it 3 weeks and then Green Days takes over until someone knocks them out.

Maybe "Lady" and kept climbing, I've started to hear it alot on Open House Party.

Is it just me or did Open House Party play "Beautiful Soul" like every half hour Sunday? That song needs to go away FAST!

Could Tim McGraw make #50 next week? He's at #51 with 562 +76, and the #52 song has 539 +287.
Maybe he can slide in depending on who goes recurrent and who falls out of the top 50.

[mst3k]

Going recurrent THIS week:
Usher & Alicia Keys

Going recurrent 2/18:
Destiny's Child
Jojo

Going recurrent 2/25:
Simple Plan
Trick Daddy f/ Lil' Jon

Going recurrent whenever she drops below #20:
Kelly Clarkson

[singingsparrow]

Wow, I came out correct on my Top 5 prediction. No doubt it's been a competitive week for the artists in the Top Six.

I predicted Green Day would leapfrog Destiny's Child by the Sunday update. That did happen. I also predicted Kelly Clarkson would leapfrog Jesse, but Jesse wouldn't be leapfroged yet by Green Day and DC. That also happened.

Here's some other thoughts I have:

* Eminem's "Mockingbird" I believe will end up being the strongest single released from "Encore". I predict it'll best the #5 peak of "Just Lose It". The real question here is, will it top the chart, especially when "Like Toy Soldiers" is also rising, plus when you have two other singles on the chart?

* Usher will undoubtedly go 5 for 5 at CHR/Pop in single releases from "Confessions" going Top 10. "Caught Up" will be the next to go.

* The Game's "How We Do" looks destined to be a hit. With first-week sales almost 600,000, that's incredibly promising for this new headliner. With 50 Cent's new release around the corner too, he'll give this single an extra push.

* I'm suprised about the mild success Ashanti is having off "Only U". "Concrete Rose" got generally bad reviews and the record, despite platinum status, isn't receiving very well commerically.

* Speaking of suprises, can anyone explain why Lenny Kravitz's "Lady" is thriving?

Sincerely,
Noah Eaton

[GiggaWho]

SingingSparrow said:

* Speaking of suprises, can anyone explain why Lenny Kravitz's "Lady" is thriving?

Two words: CD and Preview.

[PerPlexied]

I love '1, 2 Step' but it just seems so old now. Same with 'Let Me Love You'. It's time to let that go and fall to its death.

Kelly Clarkson looks like she will have back-to-back Pop #1's.

[Ragin]

SUBG certainly is taking off. Looks like there's a good chance it is bound for #1, a big change from what it was looking like a week ago. Stations dropping Breakaway must be having an impact by playing SUBG in it's place.

Green Day is getting a huge hit on an okay song. I hate it when this happens, but you know, that they get any radio love at all is good.

Ciara is kind of reminding me of Kylie Minogue, I'm not sure why, but it looks like she'll have the next #1.

[mst3k]

SingingSparrow said:

Wow, I came out correct on my Top 5 prediction.

I predicted Green Day would leapfrog Destiny's Child by the Sunday update. That did happen. I also predicted Kelly Clarkson would leapfrog Jesse, but Jesse wouldn't be leapfroged yet by Green Day and DC. That also happened.

Actually, no... not on the CHR/Pop chart, at least. Maybe you're looking at the Mainstream Hit chart...

The CHR/Pop chart ended up like this:

1) Mario
2) Ciara
3) Jesse McCartney
4) Kelly Clarkson
5) Destiny's Child
6) Green Day

[eric]

GiggaWho said:

Two words: CD and Preview.

Yep. But my local station has started to pick up on it.

[JCMF3]

Kelly's only chance for #1 is if Green Day's gains can slow down and Ciara's spin total doesn't shoot up close to 9000. Either way, Green Day will likely have way more staying power if its performance on other charts is an indication of its upcoming pop success.

Wow, I surprisingly like a number of hip-hop songs on the chart right now. The Game's new one is really catchy as is 50 Cent's.

[BRhap786]

I'm really rooting for "Mr. Brightside"...I hope 2005 can be their big breakthrough year!

I'm also really surprised "Since U Been Gone" has been picking up again...I didn't really see this hitting Top 3, but congrats to her! :)

[britrocks16]

Now that SUBG is the greatest gainer, I'm thinking that it might go #1 after Ciara.

[kellydicted]

I can't believe Kelly's chances of having back to back #1s. What a change this song took from last week! Does anyone know what's wrong with the SUBG thread..did it get locked or something ???

[THE LEGEND]

Mariah Carey-It's like that is doing Awesome on pop, it's gained alot of spins and audience impressions since it's add date.........It looks healthy to even make top 10 i predict.........

[sandrose]

JCMF3 said:

Kelly's only chance for #1 is if Green Day's gains can slow down and Ciara's spin total doesn't shoot up close to 9000.  Either way, Green Day will likely have way more staying power if its performance on other charts is an indication of its upcoming pop success.

Wrong.  SUBG hit the accelerator and took the lead from GD and way back in the pack Mariahs found the key to arm a nuclear explosian that might vault her to the top 10 within a few weeks.

Heres the Jump Chart from Chr/Pop for this morning:

Artist Title Move Stations
Playing Format Reports
KELLY CLARKSON Since U Been Gone +904 119 Leaders Starters
GREEN DAY Boulevard of Broken Dreams +835 119 Leaders Starters
MARIAH CAREY It's Like That (f/FatManScoop) +826 91 Leaders Starters
EMINEM Mockingbird +778 117 Leaders Starters
FRANKIE J Obsession (No Es..) f/BabyBash +727 98 Leaders Starters
USHER Caught Up +679 116 Leaders Starters
GAME How We Do (f/50 Cent) +629 85 Leaders Starters

The picture gets clearer as the players flex their muscles for the finish.  BOBD is still 2000 spins out of first and losing some steam (I don't think this one will make it to #1 - its not sexy and kids aren't crazy about it).  Eminems Pop Chart Magic might be gone as hes stumbling at #10 almost 4000 spins from #1.  He can't hold momentum and without a miracle he'll fall short of the top 4.  Mario and Ciara are both stretching their legs for 9000 spins and Kelly Clarksons picking UP the pace to catch them.  Mariah is making a broad based powerful move and looks like a monster with NO signs of weakness.

I think this is going to be one of the best dogfights at the top by multiple artists in a quite a while.  Underestimating Kelly or Mariah would probably be a big mistake.  If Mariahs bullet keeps growing at its current pace it could be top 10 in less than 2 weeks and if that happens NOTHING will stop her from getting to the top.  I think Mario and Ciaras run at the top will be short and the explosians beneath them will knock them both out quicker than they expected.

[JCMF3]

SingingSparrow said:

* Eminem's "Mockingbird" I believe will end up being the strongest single released from "Encore". I predict it'll best the #5 peak of "Just Lose It". The real question here is, will it top the chart, especially when "Like Toy Soldiers" is also rising, plus when you have two other singles on the chart?

I doubt that this will be the case. Each day the gains for this song are going down, and right now the top 6 on pop radio have very strong gains and are all above 6500 spins, while Mockingbird is not even at 5000 spins yet (as of this morning). I think this song is a novelty song in a way and will have a similar run to Just Lose It -it'll probably gain for the next 3-4 weeks but then fall down the chart and might not even get into the top 5 on pop radio. Once it hits #7, it is going to have a tough time to move on up until Jesse or Mario fall down. By that time, wild card gains by Gwen and then Usher may ruin Eminem's chances at the top 5.

[jmason]

may ruin Eminem's chances at the top 5.

That will be great.

I heard the Mariah song, I don't like it, but it will probally grow on me, and even if I neve like it, I still hope it goes top 10.

If Mariah does go top 10 will her song hang on in the top 10 or will it fall like most Madonna songs?

[PerPlexied]

Who ever would have thought Mariah Carey would have a bullet of +829 and be Top 40 basically after one full week of adds? :o

I am still saying Kelly grabs #1, but don't forget the Grammy's are only a couple of weeks away. If Greenday performs and wins I see an increase in radio play. So it could be a heated battle.

Good for Alicia for making Top 30 and here's to a slow and steady climb to Top 20 (wishful thinking, I know).

I'm thinking Gwen can actually peak around #8.

[The Rebirth Of ffej]

whats recurrent mean

[KikiMets]

adatu7 said:

whats recurrent mean 

Songs that have been in the top 50 for 20 weeks and are below #20 are removed from the chart and considered "recurrents" (songs on the chart are "currents").

[britrocks16]

I'm starting to think that Ciara might not grab #1 this week Mario is still 245 spins ahead of Ciara and still has a bullet of +269. Mockingbirds' bullet keeps decreasing everyday, I think it will peak around 6 or 7. And looks at Lala drop It falling faster than Shadow!

[automyskin89]

Britrocks16 said:

And looks at Lala drop It falling faster than Shadow!

:);Dyay

[sandrose]

By Sundays last update things will shake out and I think Mario will hold on to #1, but barely. Mario and Ciara will be neck and neck (could easily go either way) but both will slow down and SUBG will maintain momentum getting within 700 spins or so of #2. Next week is when SUBG will have to prove it is worthy of #1 by maintaining its strength - if it does it'll break the momentum of both Mario and Ciara - neither of which, IMO, is worthy of #1. BOBD is hard to figure. It's been very consistant and has Grammy buzz - but its not a particularly good, fun, or sexy song. Green Days anti-establishment, antiwar vibe is about the extent of its appeal. If there weren't a war going on I don't think this would have even charted. BOBDs future is linked to its Grammy production. I heard a DJ say it was his social responsibility to play GD - kidding but serious, ya know? GD is the wildcard. Mariah looks like she will make it to the top 10 within the next 2-3 weeks and from there its straight to the top baby.

So, the contenders for #1 for the next month are Ciara, Kelly, GD, and then its M-A-R-I-A-H time!!!!!

[agon666]

sandrose said:

  Green Days anti-establishment, antiwar vibe is about the extent of its appeal.  If there weren't a war going on I don't think this would have even charted.

Hey, thank you Captain Obvious. I think that if there wasn't a war going on, Green Day's album never would have been created. (Duh!) The whole basis of the album is to attack Bush. If Bush doesn't go to war, Green Day doesn't attack him through their music.

OK, a few more things to complain about:
The Killers are down to +192!!! Z100 needs to drop Somebody Told Me and add Mr. Brightside in a hurry, or Mr. B is going nowhere fast.

3DD is down to +93... I know their historiclly slow gainers, but I smell a real flop on our hands. I love the song, but it's just not going good.

And one somewhat exciting fact:
And Papa Roach picks up 10 adds with "Scars"!!! Wow, I still don't think this is going anywhere, but, hey, it could go top 40!

[GiggaWho]

The race to #1 should be interesting. Mario's bullet seems to be maintaining. And last night, what do I hear pop up during my favorite media buy, CD Preview? That's right 1,2 Step. Looks like Jive really wants that #1 slot. We'll see if they can pour enough cash into it in the next few days to overcome Mario. Because it doesn't look like he wants to give up #1 quite yet.

[jmason]

I think "1, 2 Step" will reach #1 for at least one week. Hopefully Kelly will then get at least 3 weeks and then Green Day can take over.

I can't see Mariah going #1, I think she will have a fast rise to #3 then fall very fast.

[Deleted]

Congratulations to Miss Carey on snagging the greatest gainer status!

[eric]

sandrose said:

If there weren't a war going on I don't think this would have even charted.

Well, of course the album in general (along with the song American Idiot) would be different, but if they did still have this same song, I think it'd still do well. Alot of people I know who arn't even into rock or anything similar love the song...

[singingsparrow]

sandrose said:

The picture gets clearer as the players flex their muscles for the finish.  BOBD is still 2000 spins out of first and losing some steam (I don't think this one will make it to #1 - its not sexy and kids aren't crazy about it).

So "Boulevard of Broken Dreams" go #1 at ALL FOUR Rock formats, and kids don't like it? This track is one of the biggest hyped tracks among young listeners in all recent memory.

Definitely will top the Pop chart! Add Hot AC and it'll top a total of six formats!

I think it's definitely possible Kelly Clarkson could fend off Green Day and top the chart first, but "BOBD" is all but certain to be going #1.

sandrose said:

  Mariah is making a broad based powerful move and looks like a monster with NO signs of weakness.

"NO signs of weakness" would be an overstatement right now.

It still hasn't reached the Top 30 yet. And this single will, but this is still just coming out of the box and I wouldn't be suprised to see this track slow down once it crawls into the Top 20.

sandrose said:

I think this is going to be one of the best dogfights at the top by multiple artists in a quite a while.  Underestimating Kelly or Mariah would probably be a big mistake.

Or Green Day.

In fact, there are so many artists that shouldn't be underestimated of possible success here. Papa Roach is one example.

Sincerely,
Noah Eaton

[JayBoozer]

Since when has Green Day been underestimated? Everyone seems to think that they're going #1. Personally, I wouldn't be surprised it it peaks at #2 and Kelly C. fends them off the entire time. Sort of like how everyone expected My Immortal to go #1, when it eventually stalled at #2.

It's too early to tell if Mariah will go #1 or not. I think top 20 is guaranteed and top 10 is likely, but it's way too early to say that it's going #1.