HITS DD: 4/13/10: Justin Bieber - 106K

[HolidayGuy]

JUSTIN AND MENTOR BATTLE IT OUT
AS SLASH GETS READY TO BURN
Bieber-Usher Should Go 1-2, While Rock Guitar Icon Debuts with 50-60k

April 7, 2010

Justin Bieber and Usher are once more joined…this time at the top of the HITS album sales chart.

Usher originally discovered the then-13-year-old after manager Scooter Braun introduced him to the Atlanta community back in 2007. Braun then formed the RBMG joint-venture label with Usher, signing the youngster to L.A. Reid’s Island Def Jam Music Group. The rest is history.

Yesterday, Usher’s Raymond v Raymond dislodged his protégé’s My World 2.0 from the top spot, though Bieber’s album actually increased sales in its second week from 282k to 292k.

Next week, based on one-day sales reports from those retailers with working leases on their stores, Bieber should return to the top, boasting a total that will top 100k.

This weekend, the multi-talented teenpop whiz will be the musical guest on Saturday Night Live, hosted by Tina Fey, while his first headlining tour for AEG Live was announced this week, starting June 23 at XL Center in Hartford, CT.

The week’s top debut will be Slash’s self-titled Dik Hayd/EMI Label Services solo bow, featuring vocal cameos from the likes of Fergie, Ozzy Osbourne, Kid Rock, Iggy Pop, Chris Cornell, Motorhead’s Lemmy and Maroon 5’s Adam Levine, along with fellow GNR alum Duff McKagan and Dave Grohl, among others. The album is showing some surprising strength with a first-week total in the 50-60k range.

Other debuts include Madonna’s CD/DVD of her Sticky and Sweet tour on Warner Bros., now looking at between 25-30k, while Jakob Dylan’s second solo effort for Columbia, Women + Country, an Americana roots album produced by T Bone Burnett with back-up vocals from Neko Case, is on target for 15-20k in sales.

Next Tuesday’s releases include Columbia PoMo art-rock weirdos MGMT, their equally conceptual prog labelmates Coheed & Cambria and Mercury Nashville’s Laura Bell Bundy, the first release under UMD boss Jim Urie’s much-discussed “Velocity” pricing initiative.

The market was up 13% vs. last week, down 4% vs. same week last year and still down 8% year to date. Are you all packed for Coachella yet?

[PDC1987]

Madonna's projected range is the same as the White Stripes live album from 3 weeks ago. Okay I guess.

[galvanize]

Billboard said the only new debut in the top 10 was Slash, so Madge must be just around the top 15/outside of top 15.

[HolidayGuy]

^If that number holds up, a little better than I expected. As noted, The Confessions Tour did 40K back in early 2007, and came in at #15. Unlike Confessions Tour, S&S has a Blu-Ray that some may opt for over the CD/DVD combo (the Blu-Ray will count toward the Music Videos chart, but, obviously, not the Billboard 200).

[PDC1987]

If the chart looks like it did the week before Easter she'll be around #11 to #15 with that sales range.

[Choco]

Pretty good for Madonna and Slash.

[jink]

S&S is being released on Warner Bros.?

[PDC1987]

Apr 8, 2010 11:34:39 GMT -5 jink said:

S&S is being released on Warner Bros.?

They bought the rights to distribute it.

[Caviar]

So Usher won't even cross the 100k mark? Wow...That's close to a 70% drop.

[Tanisha Thomas.]

Apr 8, 2010 14:49:42 GMT -5 Caviar said:

So Usher won't even cross the 100k mark? Wow...That's close to a 70% drop.

Where did you get that from?

[HolidayGuy]

Yeah, it doesn't say that Usher will drop below 100K- but it wouldn't be surprising if he did. Some albums are seeing 70%+ erosions in the second week ,and since this week falls after a holiday week, it's possible he will, too.

[groovy]

Apr 8, 2010 16:27:02 GMT -5 HolidayGuy said:

Yeah, it doesn't say that Usher will drop below 100K- but it wouldn't be surprising if he did. Some albums are seeing 70%+ erosions in the second week ,and since this week falls after a holiday week, it's possible he will, too.

Next week, based on one-day sales reports from those retailers with working leases on their stores, Bieber should return to the top, boasting a total that will top 100k.

Bieber will be at the top with 100k, means Usher will be below him (100k)

[HolidayGuy]

^It says the total "will top 100K." While I think Usher will drop below 100K, the article does not state that he will, just that Bieber should be #1 with a total that will "top 100K"- meaning, anything in excess of 100K. :) The Weakend Forecast will be up in the a.m., anyhow to give a clearer idea.

[Tanisha Thomas.]

I actually took that line both ways. I could definitely see Usher doing around 90-110k. As I said before, Idol and Easter seemed to help Usher a lot moreso than the 20 million singles he has at radio right now. The test will be for him to sustain sales.

[musicjunky318]

^Told ya so.

[bibliotheque]

YOUR WEAKEND TOP 15 CHART PREVIEW

After an impressive debut, Usher will fall to his protégé as Justin Bieber reclaims the #1 spot on next week's album chart. It also appears that EMI—the Butler of mid-major music groups—will have three titles in the Top 5. Here's a look at the first-day leader board heading into Masters weekend:

Justin Bieber, My World 2.0 (Island/IDJ) 105-115k
Usher (LaFace/JLG) 85-90k
* Slash (Dik Hayd/EMI) 55-60k
Now 33 (Capitol/EMI) 50-55k
Lady Antebellum (Capitol Nashville/EMI) 50-55k
Monica (J/RMG) 35-40k
* Madonna (Warner Bros.) 28-32k
Lady Gaga (Interscope) 28-32k
Justin Bieber, My World (Island/IDJ) 28-32k
Erykah Badu (Universal Motown) 25-28k
Alan Jackson (Arista Nashville) 25-28k
Ke$ha (RCA/RMG) 22-25k
Black Eyed Peas (Interscope) 22-25k
Ludacris (DTP/Def Jam/IDJ) 19-22k
* Jakob Dylan (Columbia) 19-22k

* Denotes debut

You may now return to ESPN’s wall-to-wall coverage of Tiger on the second round at Augusta National. (4/9a)

[Tanisha Thomas.]

Whoa, those are HUGE decreases. And looks like a few people in this thread were right about Usher's 2nd week sales. All that talk about him having all these singles at radio will sustain his sales is weak. It seems like he benefited greatly from Idol and the Easter weekend. Otherwise, he would have done around Mariah's #s. His test will be to sustain sales, and I'm not sure if he can do it like that. This may not even sell as good as Here I Stand, which maxed out at 1.2 million with a #1 smash and a debut of 450k.

[HolidayGuy]

Looks like it will be some "battle" for positions 7-10. Not expecting Madonna to finish in the top 10, but if she does, cool.

I don't know if Usher would have sold a whole 161K less without Easter- maybe he would have done 240K-260K or so; dropping down to the projected range then would given him a 65% or so drop. Remember, he also appeared on Idol.

[Tanisha Thomas.]

Either way, that drop is pretty critical. It's early in the game. That is true. However, it's always best to have a great start, especially for R&B artists. If his album saw that big of a drop with all the single he has at radio, which should help sustain sales, then it's kinda hard to tell if this album will do better than the last. Mary debuted with 340k and she has only sold 720k to date. I could see Usher doing more or less of that.

[HolidayGuy]

Mary J. Blige's total also was "inflated," as it was released in December, the highest sales month of the year.

Usher had a big R&B hit with "Papers," but none of the singles have taken off at Mainstream Top 40 radio, which may hurt the album's long-run potential.

I doubt his album will fare as well as Here I Stand. The Mimi comparison is a good one, though- they both had very successful albums (Confessions and The Emancipation of Mimi)- and then they both took big hits (as expected) with the followups, and now the albums to follow continue the declining sales trend, with both (likely) selling notably less than those efforts.

[Tanisha Thomas.]

I agree. Mary J. Blige's albums are always "inflated," as they are always released during the holiday season. But The Breakthrough ending up selling over 3 million units and Growing Pains 1.7 million. This one will probably max out at around 800k or so. The Christmas season wasn't that effective this past year, though. But that's kinda a moot debate. Some may say Usher's sales were "inflated," as he had the Easter weekend to boost his sales. But a lot of Usher's fan base brought his album first week. I don't think too many new Usher fans brought the album. "OMG" was supposedly taking off, but I don't know if that will get buyers to the stores. I'm holding out on dismissing Usher, but it's hard. We'll see though.

[#LisaRinna]

Apr 9, 2010 9:29:43 GMT -5 HolidayGuy said:

The Mimi comparison is a good one, though- they both had very successful albums (Confessions and The Emancipation of Mimi)- and then they both took big hits (as expected) with the followups, and now the albums to follow continue the declining sales trend, with both (likely) selling notably less than those efforts.

@ it being "expected". What happened for both was poor 2nd single choices. Period.
Had the 2nd single from both projects been different (an uptempo preferably), they would have sold noticeably more.

[PDC1987]

Mariah was always going to come down notably from TEOM with the follow up album.

[HolidayGuy]

^Yes. Also, from a commercial standpoint, "Bye Bye" followed the formula of past Mimi hits, and both the label and she probably thought it would be a big hit. They were wrong- it happens. Plus, Mimi's first single from that album was not a ballad; she always has a ballad/slower song out as the first or second single of a project. So, that wasn't going to change for E=MC2. Some acts may defy the diminishing returns theory and have third, fourth, etc. singles do well and reverse an album's sales trend- that didn't happen with Mimi's (or Usher's) albums.

Anyhow- Alan Jackson' sales sure aren't what they used to be. But, as with other veterans, not surprising.

[#LisaRinna]

Apr 9, 2010 10:44:22 GMT -5 PDC1987 said:

Mariah was always going to come down notably from TEOM with the follow up album.

Probably. But with right single choices, she would have surely done better than she did overall.

[PDC1987]

Apr 9, 2010 7:19:13 GMT -5 bibliotheque said:

YOUR WEAKEND TOP 15 CHART PREVIEW

After an impressive debut, Usher will fall to his protégé as Justin Bieber reclaims the #1 spot on next week's album chart. It also appears that EMI—the Butler of mid-major music groups—will have three titles in the Top 5. Here's a look at the first-day leader board heading into Masters weekend:

Justin Bieber, My World 2.0 (Island/IDJ) 105-115k
Usher (LaFace/JLG) 85-90k
* Slash (Dik Hayd/EMI) 55-60k
Now 33 (Capitol/EMI) 50-55k
Lady Antebellum (Capitol Nashville/EMI) 50-55k
Monica (J/RMG) 35-40k
* Madonna (Warner Bros.) 28-32k
Lady Gaga (Interscope) 28-32k
Justin Bieber, My World (Island/IDJ) 28-32k
Erykah Badu (Universal Motown) 25-28k
Alan Jackson (Arista Nashville) 25-28k
Ke$ha (RCA/RMG) 22-25k
Black Eyed Peas (Interscope) 22-25k
Ludacris (DTP/Def Jam/IDJ) 19-22k
* Jakob Dylan (Columbia) 19-22k

* Denotes debut

You may now return to ESPN’s wall-to-wall coverage of Tiger on the second round at Augusta National. (4/9a)

So Madge is probably gonna get her 19th Top 10 album in the US. Nice.

[#LisaRinna]

Apr 9, 2010 11:05:05 GMT -5 HolidayGuy said:

^Yes. Also, from a commercial standpoint, "Bye Bye" followed the formula of past Mimi hits, and both the label and she probably thought it would be a big hit. They were wrong- it happens. Plus, Mimi's first single from that album was not a ballad; she always has a ballad/slower song out as the first or second single of a project. So, that wasn't going to change for E=MC2. Some acts may defy the diminishing returns theory and have third, fourth, etc. singles do well and reverse an album's sales trend- that didn't happen with Mimi's (or Usher's) albums.

Hence me saying with a different 2nd single...
Anyway, Mariah's lead singles have always been uptempos (except for 2 cases - 'Vision Of Love' and 'Through The Rain'). The 2nd single being a ballad has always been her strong point because it has always been the ballad to sell the album, but obviously in this music climate it doesn't work, because ballads are not in at radio right now.
The label should have known this. I mean they do market research after all. Hopefully after 2 mistakes, they'll learn their lesson.

The same happened with Usher: they thought 'Moving Mountains' would be the 'Burn' of that era for him. Wrong.

[HolidayGuy]

^Possibly, PDC- but a bunch of albums are in the 22K-32K projection range, so it may be tight. Won't be surprised if it ends up in the 11-13 range. But, an additional top 10 album would be nice.

mcfan- yes, ballads usually were the second single (why I said first or second, because of those other exceptions- well, "MTV Unplugged only spawned one single which was a ballad, too). I don't think there are always "mistakes" with single releases- a track clicks or it doesn't. Sometimes singles get released for non-commercial reasons; now, with Mimi, commercial appeal definitely plays into singles choices, no doubt. Had "Bye Bye" received a better reception, would it have been a mistake? Can't always gauge how something's going to perform- it's easier for 40+ acts than others, though, and now Mimi's officially part of that, so can't be expecting 100M+ radio hits any longer.

[jgizzle89]

I think Usher will be fine in the long run. "Lil Freak" hasn't even gotten an adds date, "OMG" is taking off, and he has at least one more radio-friendly song from the album - "She Don't Know"

[PDC1987]

Apr 9, 2010 11:14:34 GMT -5 HolidayGuy said:

^Possibly- but a bunch of albums are in the 22K-32K range, so it may be tight. Won't be surprised if it ends up in the 11-13 range. But, an additional top 10 album would be nice.

I know. As soon as I posted that I imagined it debuting at #11. LOL.