HITS 7/12-7/13: EMINEM #1

[Honeymoon]

Eminem to be #1 for the third consecutive week...

Big Boi, Bret Michaels, Enrique Iglesias Lead the Debuts

July 7, 2010

So far, it’s the summer of Eminem…at least as far as the HITS album sales chart goes.

The hip-hop star’s Recovery continues apace next week, with the platinum-plus Shady/ Aftermath/Interscope album still dominating the #1 slot.

Through two weeks, Slim Shady’s sales total sits at 1.06m and rising after the biggest debut of 2010. Lady Antebellum’s Capitol Nashville/EMI album Need You Now remains the year’s top seller at 2.4m.

Among this week's debuts, Def Jam/IDJ’s Big Boi will be the biggest, with the Outkast member’s solo debut, Sir Lucious Left Foot: The Son of Chico Dusty, which went from Jive to L.A. Reid’s label, set to sell between 50-55k.

One-time Poison lead singer and reality TV star Bret Michaels’ Custom Built, on Poor Boy Records, will move 25-30k, miraculous considering the dude was almost dead a couple of months ago. The country-rock effort, his first solo studio album in five years, features the single, “Nothing to Lose,” featuring Miley Cyrus.

Enrique Iglesias’ first album for Universal Republic, the bilingual Euphoria, appears set to sell between 25-30k as well, with a Top 20 hit at Top 40 hit in “I Like It,” featuring Pitbull.

Astrawerks/EMI international dance diva Kylie Minogue’s Aphrodite is on target for between 10-15k, and that’s it for the Top 50 newcomers.

The market was down 9% vs. last week, down 20% vs same week last year (when Michael Jackson sales dominated) and still down 11% year to date.

And that’s not going to change no matter where LeBron James decides to play.

[Honeymoon]

Kylie looks like she's on track for the top 40, I hope she makes it, it would be her second US top 40 album following Fever.

[Minor Scratch]

Disastrous. Big Boi should have at least done 70-80K. Enrique at least 50-60K.

[Honeymoon]

Yeah I would expect Enrique to do a bit more, maybe they should've delayed his album a couple weeks since just now "I Like It" is becoming a hit. But what's done is done, hopefully it will stay afloat for awhile.

I expected (slightly) more for Big Boi but his album is getting really great word-of-mouth so maybe it can even finish with higher sales than HDD is predicting

[Honeymoon]

They didn't give Eminem any numbers this week either. My prediction is 180k-ish but who knows, it would be even better if he could top 200k this week again

[HolidayGuy]

I know Kylie made some appearance a few weeks back in the USA, but has she any promo planned? Not that it would do that much, as her success is limited outside of the gay community in the USA.

[Honeymoon]

No word of any promo as of yet, although in a Billboard article a couple weeks ago they explained how the label is going to send "All the Lovers" to pop and rhythmic radio later in the Summer.

Realistically, the album will be long off the chart by the time "All the Lovers" makes any (if any) impact at radio and it's very difficult on the US chart to re-enter once you've already fallen off. Even La Roux, off the back of a huge top ten hit single, her album hasn't rebounded any higher than #92 on the Billboard 200

I expect that the album will spend maybe 3 weeks on the Billboard 200 and then fall off, it can only do so much with no promo, and poorly stocked shelves. It seems to be carrying all of its weight on iTunes and Amazon at the moment

[HolidayGuy]

^I thought "All the Lovers" went for airplay? Again, though, U.S. radio is not going to give Kylie much in the way of support, considering a) her history and b) her age.

[Dammn Baby]

Jul 7, 2010 16:49:58 GMT -5 HolidayGuy said:

^I thought "All the Lovers" went for airplay? Again, though, U.S. radio is not going to give Kylie much in the way of support, considering a) her history and b) her age.

Nothing from the album has been sent for adds in the US.

X sold just over 5k in its first week and 42k total in the US, so this is a marked improvement over her last debut.

[slicknickshady]

Well Drake had a 33% drop from 2nd week to 3rd week. I will be Curious to see Em's.

[Baby In a New Dress]

Enrique's sales are AWFUL. Like he's Jason Derulo or some shit. :(

[chopped89]

And then again ur underestimating Em for his 3rd week!
I think he can top 200k, hell i think he will do in the range of 220-250k!

[slicknickshady]

Jul 7, 2010 17:21:04 GMT -5 chopped89 said:

And then again ur underestimating Em for his 3rd week!
I think he can top 200k, hell i think he will do in the range of 220-250k!

I do expect a less 2nd to 3rd week drop then Drake. It may not be by much but i would say a 30% drop from 2nd to 3rd week. Still not bad at all. We will see.

[HolidayGuy]

RE Kylie- "X" was released in the USA months after its release outside, whereas this album is seeing simultaneous release in the USA and Europe. So that may have hindered "X's" sales slightly. "Body Language" peaked at No. 42 following "Fever," so 'X" may have done a little better without import availability prior to its U.S. release.

[bat1990]

I think the estimate might be a little low. I would say 15-20k, but we'll have to see how long it can remain in the iTunes top 10 this week.

[Honeymoon]

Jul 7, 2010 17:54:41 GMT -5 HolidayGuy said:

RE Kylie- "X" was released in the USA months after its release outside, whereas this album is seeing simultaneous release in the USA and Europe. So that may have hindered "X's" sales slightly. "Body Language" peaked at No. 42 following "Fever," so 'X" may have done a little better without import availability prior to its U.S. release.

But X also benefited from a) already having a single at radio and b) getting a US promotional trip of its own during its release week... so it's all turns and roundabouts really. But yes, I think Aphrodite got the better deal by being released in the US the same time as everywhere else.

[Honeymoon]

To clarify, All the Lovers has been sent to around 20 dance radio stations and that's it, so needless to say it hasn't really been 'released' as a radio single quite yet. I imagine they will coincide a radio release with some sort of promo trip. Not sure what good it will do after Aphrodite is off the charts but I guess this is the route they are trying this time around...

[GRRR]

ugh no Kelis :(

[slicknickshady]

I'm hoping the drop is only like 30% for Eminem.

[slicknickshady]

HDD: Recovery 225-250k Week 3

www.hitsdailydouble.com/news/rumormill.cgi

Eminem will rack up enough units in his third week at #1 to reach nearly 1.3 million in total sales. The last album to sell more than 200k in its third week, outside of a holiday, was Lil Wayne's Tha Carter III, which sold 209k for the week ending 6/29/08. That album has gone on to sell just south of 3.5 million since release. Since then, the only LPs to sell 200k+ in their third week were Lady Antebellum with 207k during Valentine's Day 2010, Susan Boyle with 582k during Christmas 2009 and Taylor Swift with 267k during Thanksgiving 2008. But enough statistical reminiscing—here’s a sketch of next week’s UMG-intensive Top 15 as we head into the weekend:

Eminem (Shady/Aftermath/Interscope) 225-250k Recovery

Drake (Young Money/Cash Money/Universal Motown) 75-80k

* Big Boi (Def Jam/IDJ) 55-60k

Twilight Saga: Eclipse (Chop Shop/Atlantic) 50-55k

Justin Bieber (Island/IDJ) 40-45k

Now 34 (Capitol/EMI) 35-40k

Jack Johnson (Brushfire/Universal Republic) 30-35k

Lady Antebellum (Capitol Nashville/EMI) 30-35k

* Enrique Iglesias (Universal Republic) 27-30k

Lady Gaga (Interscope) 27-30k

The-Dream (Def Jam/IDJ) 25-28k

Miley Cyrus (Hollywood) 25-28k

* Bret Michaels (Poor Boy/Mailboat) 24-27k

Sarah McLachlan (Arista/RMG) 24-27k

Zac Brown Band (Atlantic) 21-24k


---------------------------------------------------------------

I guess the question is now....Will Recovery get #1 for a 4th Week? Korn May be able to challenge but i doubt it.

[BlueSwan]

Very impressive by Eminem. Recovery is totally outperforming Relapse despite Relapse being the big comeback album and despite the overall market being down from last year.

Honestly, as an Eminem fan, I would have been happy with an overall total of 1,5 mil sales for Recovery, but now it's looks like its easily going to sail past the 2 mil of Release.

I still think Relapse is a far better album than Recovery, but that's another story.

[Honeymoon]

I think Eminem is going to beat Korn next week. I can see Korn doing over 100k but with Eminem holding up so well I only see him falling to around 160k next week

[metalfan87]

Jul 9, 2010 11:53:46 GMT -5 Honeymoon said:

I think Eminem is going to beat Korn next week. I can see Korn doing over 100k but with Eminem holding up so well I only see him falling to around 160k next week

I don't know. maybe next week, Recovery will do 95-100k, which will signify Korn will sell 100-110K and take the #1 spot

[Oprah]

Enrique's sales aren't all that surprising, I had no idea he was releasing a new CD until this week, when the commercial promoting it began to bombard TV stations. As far as commercial success goes, I think his career died years ago, so it's not that surprising.

[Honeymoon]

His song is #4 on iTunes currently so I'd say this project is far from dead in the water. The album might not sell loads but at least it looks like it will hang around for awhile if "I Like It" continues to blow up.

[slicknickshady]

Imo it will easily top Korn but i'm giving Korn a little chance.

[jj99$ - - LeLe]

not an entirely horrible drop for Miley

[PDC1987]

Jul 9, 2010 12:00:37 GMT -5 @metalfan87 said:

Jul 9, 2010 11:53:46 GMT -5 Honeymoon said:

I think Eminem is going to beat Korn next week. I can see Korn doing over 100k but with Eminem holding up so well I only see him falling to around 160k next week

I don't know. maybe next week, Recovery will do 95-100k, which will signify Korn will sell 100-110K and take the #1 spot

Why would Recovery suddenly drop well over 50% next week?

[slicknickshady]

Also it could easily be #1 for a 5th week as well. I don't know everything that's coming out the 20th but im not worried about Kidz Bop or Sheryl Crow beating out Em.

[bat1990]

Jul 7, 2010 20:34:15 GMT -5 Honeymoon said:

Jul 7, 2010 17:54:41 GMT -5 HolidayGuy said:

RE Kylie- "X" was released in the USA months after its release outside, whereas this album is seeing simultaneous release in the USA and Europe. So that may have hindered "X's" sales slightly. "Body Language" peaked at No. 42 following "Fever," so 'X" may have done a little better without import availability prior to its U.S. release.

But X also benefited from a) already having a single at radio and b) getting a US promotional trip of its own during its release week... so it's all turns and roundabouts really. But yes, I think Aphrodite got the better deal by being released in the US the same time as everywhere else.

Actually "All I See" was sent to radio 2 weeks after X was released and Kylie did some promo.