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Post by Deleted on Jun 28, 2015 9:20:30 GMT -5
Ok time for prediction time. Top 40 style.
1. Blake Shelton Sangria 2. Carrie Underwood Little Toy Guns 3. Tim McGraw Diamond Rings & Old Barstools 4. Jason Aldean Tonight Looks Good On You 5. Easton Corbin Baby Be My Love Song (last week?) 6. Canaan Smith Love You Like That 7. Kelsea Ballerini Love Me Like You Mean It (last week) 8. Little Big Town Girl Crush 9. Brantley Gilbert One Hell Of An Amen 10. Michael Ray Kiss You In The Morninh 11-12. Luke Bryan Kick The Dust Up 11-12. Brad Paisley Crushing It (last week?) 13. Zac Brown Band Loving You Easy 14. Frankie Ballard Young & Crazy 15. Dustin Lynch Hell Of A Night 16-18. Sam Hunt House Party 16-18. Eric Church Like A Wrecking Ball 16-18. Thomas Rhett Crash & Burn 19. Chris Janson Buy Me A Boat 20. Brett Eldredge Lose My Mind 21. Maddie & Tae Fly 22. Keith Urban John Cougar John Deere John 3:16 23-24. Jake Owen Real Life 23-24. Chase Rice Gonna Wanna Tonight 25-27. Kip Moore I'm To Blame 25-27. Cole Swindell Let Me See Ya Girl 28. Old Dominion Break Up With Him 29. Dan + Shay Nothing Like You 30. Reba Going Out Like That (last week?) 31. Big & Rich Run Away With You 32-33. Parmalee Already Calling You Mine 32-33. Brothers Osborne Stay A Little Longer 34. Florida Georgia Line Anything Goes 35-37. Jana Kramer I Got The Boy 35-37. Mickey Guyton Better Than You Left Me (last week?) 35-37. Chris Young I'm Coming Over 38. Mo Pitney Country 39-40. Hunter Hayes 21 39-40. Austin Webb All Country On You (last week?)
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blueguitar
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Post by blueguitar on Jun 28, 2015 10:07:03 GMT -5
40-60 is the most intriguing part...
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Post by Deleted on Jun 28, 2015 10:18:34 GMT -5
Fine 41-60. Ok
41. Drake White 42. LoCash 43. Chase Bryant 44. Billy Currington 45. Miranda Lambert 46-47. Darius Rucker 46-47. Thompson Square 48. Casey James 49. Montgomery Gentry 50-51. Randy Houser 50-51. Toby Keith 52. Kenny Chesney 53. Aaron Watson 54-55. Craig Campbell 54-55. The Cadilac Three 56. Kid Rock 57. Lee Brice 58. Steven Tyler 59-60. Tyler Farr 59-60. Cam
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Deleted
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Post by Deleted on Jun 28, 2015 22:34:10 GMT -5
Here are my projections for tomorrow's Billboard chart! :)
01) Blake Shelton – “Sangria” (47.090) 02) Carrie Underwood – “Little Toy Guns” (44.520) 03) Tim McGraw f/ Catherine Dunn – “Diamond Rings & Old Barstools” (43.630) 04) Jason Aldean – “Tonight Looks Good On You” (41.750) 05) Easton Corbin – “Baby Be My Love Song” (39.970) 06) Kelsea Ballerini – “Love Me Like You Mean It” (37.000) [last week?] 07) Canaan Smith – “Love You Like That” (36.420) 08) Little Big Town – “Girl Crush” (32.700) 09) Brantley Gilbert – “One Hell Of An Amen” (29.520) 10) Michael Ray – “Kiss You In The Morning” (28.800) 11-12) Luke Bryan – “Kick The Dust Up” (27.620) 11-12) Brad Paisley – “Crushin’ It” (27.500) 13) Zac Brown Band – “Loving You Easy” (26.410) 14) Frankie Ballard – “Young & Crazy” (25.580) 15) Dustin Lynch – “Hell Of A Night” (22.240) 16) Sam Hunt – “House Party” (19.080) 17) Eric Church – “Like A Wrecking Ball” (18.200) 18) Thomas Rhett – “Crash And Burn” (17.790) 19) Chris Janson – “Buy Me A Boat” (16.470) 20) Brett Eldredge – “Lose My Mind” (15.720) 21) Maddie & Tae – “Fly” (13.000) 22-23) Keith Urban – “John Cougar, John Deere, John 3:16” (11.990) 22-23) Chase Rice – “Gonna Wanna Tonight” (11.900) 24-25) Kip Moore – “I’m To Blame” (11.460) 24-25) Jake Owen – “Real Life” (11.170) 26) Cole Swindell – “Let Me See Ya Girl” (10.290) 27-28) Old Dominion – “Break Up With Him” (9.900) 27-28) Lady Antebellum – “Long Stretch Of Love” (9.870) 29) Dan + Shay – “Nothin’ Like You” (9.240) 30) Reba – “Going Out Like That” (8.470) 31) Big & Rich – “Run Away With You” (7.750) 32-33) Parmalee – “Already Callin’ You Mine” (7.460) 32-33) Brothers Osborne – “Stay A Little Longer” (7.270) 34) Florida Georgia Line – “Anything Goes” (5.680) 35-37) Mo Pitney – “Country” (5.180) 35-37) Mickey Guyton – “Better Than You Left Me” (5.130) [30% chance of going recurrent] 35-37) Chris Young – “I’m Comin’ Over” (5.060) 38) Jana Kramer – “I Got The Boy” (4.660) 39-40) Hunter Hayes – “21” (3.860) 39-40) Austin Webb – “All Country On You” (3.730) 41-42) Kenny Chesney – “Save It For A Rainy Day” (3.450) 41-42) Drake White – “It Feels Good” (3.300) 43-44) LoCash – “I Love This Life” (2.940) 43-44) Chase Bryant – “Little Bit Of You” (2.890) 45-47) Miranda Lambert f/ Little Big Town – “Smokin’ And Drinkin’” (2.300) 45-47) Darius Rucker – “Southern Style” (2.280) 45-47) Thompson Square – “Trans Am” (2.150) 48-52) Casey James – “Fall Apart” (2.050) 48-52) Billy Currington – “Drinkin’ Town With A Football Problem” (2.050) 48-52) Montgomery Gentry – “Folks Like Us” (1.950) 48-52) Toby Keith – “35 mph Town” 48-52) Aaron Watson – “That Look” 53-54) Cam – “Burning House” [NEW!] 53-54) Randy Houser – “We Went” 55) Craig Campbell – “Tomorrow Tonight” 56-57) The Cadillac Three – “White Lightning” [NEW!] 55-57) Lee Brice – “That Don’t Sound Like You” 58-60) Granger Smith – “Backroad Song” [NEW!] 58-60) Ashley Monroe – “On To Something Good” [Re-Entry] 58-60) Logan Mize – “Can’t Get Away From A Good Time” [Re-Entry]
Bubbling Under:
...Steven Tyler - “Love Is Your Name” ...Kid Rock – “First Kiss” ...A Thousand Horses – “(This Ain’t No) Drunk Dial” ...Dierks Bentley – “Riser” ...Tyler Farr – “Withdrawals” ...Lucy Angel – “Crazy Too” ...Jackie Lee – “Headphones”
Going Recurrent:
* Kenny Chesney's "Wild Child" f/ Grace Potter (22 weeks, #1 peak) * George Strait's "Let It Go" (11 weeks, #46 peak) * Waterloo Revival's "Hit The Road" (17 weeks, #51 peak)
Comments:
Blake Shelton should easily be #1 tomorrow, and "Sangria" will make it 15 consecutive #1's for him, and 20 overall. Look for Carrie to move up to #2 (which I expect to be her peak), with Tim McGraw up to #3 after a huge week. Jason Aldean should push up to #4, with Easton Corbin sliding back a notch to #5. I think that Easton has probably peaked at #4, and I wouldn't be surprised to see "Baby Be My Love Song" start downward next week. Michael Ray will enter the top 10 this week, with Brad Paisley still stuck on the outside looking in. I think there's a good chance that #11 will be the peak for Brad's "Crushin' It".
Dustin Lynch should move into the top 15, with Brett Eldredge entering the top 20. Maddie & Tae continue to move slowly, but they should move up to #21. I've got Keith Urban blasting up 7 spots to #22, although it'll only be a +6 if he can't quite get ahead of Chase Rice. Cole Swindell, Old Dominion, and Lady A have all had pretty good weeks, while Reba has once again slowed to a crawl. Dan + Shay also hit the brakes this week. Meanwhile, Big & Rich and Brothers Osborne have both had good weeks, and they continue to close in on the top 30. I think Mo Pitney will move up a few spots, and I've got Austin Webb finally cracking the top 40 in his 24th week. This will be Austin's 2nd top 40, after 2013's "Slip On By" (which peaked right at #40).
Mickey Guyton continues to hang by a thread--there's a slight chance she could go recurrent, but I left her on. Chris Young, Jana Kramer, and Hunter Hayes have also had slow weeks. Look for Kenny Chesney's new one to blast all the way to the cusp of the top 40, with Miranda and Little Big Town also seeing some nice progress with "Smokin' And Drinkin'". Drake White has had a nice week, and "It Feels Good" will be a couple steps closer to the top 40 as a result.
Darius Rucker and Thompson Square continue to move very slowly, while Casey James and Aaron Watson continue to occupy chart spaces solely because of a couple of big Texas stations. Montgomery Gentry, Randy Houser, and Lee Brice are also moving very slowly. I've got Cam and The Cadillac Three scoring nice debuts with "Burning House" and "White Lightning", respectively, and I think Granger Smith will make his debut with "Backroad Song" as well. Granger's situation is similar to Aaron Watson's, in that Granger's song is largely being bolstered by one big station (WUBL in Atlanta). Granger has gained a little bit in airplay this week, but the main reason that he'll finally be in the top 60 is because several lower-charting songs (and a few higher-charting songs) finally went recurrent over the past few weeks, so for the first time in probably 2+ months, the last few songs in the top 60 will be under 1 million in audience. That's partially why I've got Ashley Monroe and Logan Mize re-entering, although both of them have also seen pretty decent gains in airplay this week.
I've got Kid Rock falling off the chart, and we'll have to see if Warner Bros. tries to get that one going a little bit or if they'll just let it go. Fellow rocker Steven Tyler re-entered last week, but I've got Logan Mize edging him out for the final spot on tomorrow's chart. Steven didn't really gain much audience over the course of the week, and even with new airplay from the Cumulus stations, I think he'll get bumped out of the top 60, and I'll be surprised if he's able to climb much higher than the 50's.
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.indulgecountry
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"You left a mark on my face // And brought a dozen red flags in a vase"
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Post by .indulgecountry on Jun 29, 2015 0:23:17 GMT -5
jhomes87 is RaeLynn done? I notice she's not listed anywhere on the chart nor in your 'Bubbling Under' section. :(
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Post by Deleted on Jun 29, 2015 0:53:32 GMT -5
jhomes87 is RaeLynn done? I notice she's not listed anywhere on the chart nor in your 'Bubbling Under' section. :( I was actually going to comment in her thread but I forgot. Yeah, it looks like Valory has pulled the plug on that one. Her leaders playlist on AllAccess shows only 4 stations, and that only adds up to 60k in audience. Chances are there are still other stations playing "For A Boy", but just less than 7 times a week (and therefore they don't show up on the leaders list). All I know is that last week she had more than a dozen leaders yet. By my estimates her airplay has decreased by more than 75% this week alone...and therefore, yeah, I'm 99% sure that "For A Boy" is done.
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.indulgecountry
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"You left a mark on my face // And brought a dozen red flags in a vase"
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Post by .indulgecountry on Jun 29, 2015 0:58:38 GMT -5
jhomes87 is RaeLynn done? I notice she's not listed anywhere on the chart nor in your 'Bubbling Under' section. :( I was actually going to comment in her thread but I forgot. Yeah, it looks like Valory has pulled the plug on that one. Her leaders playlist on AllAccess shows only 4 stations, and that only adds up to 60k in audience. Chances are there are still other stations playing "For A Boy", but just less than 7 times a week (and therefore they don't show up on the leaders list). All I know is that last week she had more than a dozen leaders yet. By my estimates her airplay has decreased by more than 75% this week alone...and therefore, yeah, I'm 99% sure that "For A Boy" is done. Was hoping this wouldn't be the case, but thank you for giving me closure, lol. RIP "For a Boy." :'(
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onebuffalo
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Post by onebuffalo on Jun 29, 2015 7:50:07 GMT -5
It pains me to see Carrie Underwood peak at #2 and George Strait going recurrent.
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Post by Deleted on Jul 5, 2015 9:53:35 GMT -5
Ok so lets get this week started.
1. Blake Shelton Sangria 2. Jason Aldean Tonight Looks Good On You 3. Easton Corbin Baby Be My Love Song 4. Canaan Smith Love You Like That 5. Little Big Town Girl Crush 6-7. Brantley Gilbert One Hell Of An Amen 6-7. Michael Ray Kiss You In The Morning 8-9. Carrie Underwood Little Toy Guns (last week) 8-9. Tim McGraw Diamond Rings & Old Barstools (last week) 10. Luke Bryan Kick The Dust Up 11. Zac Brown Band Loving You Easy 12-13. Frankie Ballard Young & Crazy 12-13. Brad Paisley Crushing It (last week?) 14. Sam Hunt House Party 15. Dustin Lynch Hell Of A Night 16. Thomas Rhett Crash & Burn 17. Eric Church Like A Wrecking Ball 18-19. Chris Janson Buy Me A Boat 18-19. Brett Eldredge Lose My Mind 20. Keith Urban John Cougar John Deere John 3:16 21. Maddie & Tae Fly 22-23. Jake Owen Real Life 22-23. Chase Rice Gonna Wanna Tonight 24-26. Kip Moore I'm To Blame 24-26. Lady Antebellum Long Stretch Of Love 24-26. Cole Swindell Let Me See Ya Girl 27-28. Dan + Shay Nothing Like You 27-28. Old Dominion Break Up With Him 29. Reba Going Out Like That 30-32. Big & Rich Run Away With You 30-32. Brothers Osborne Stay A Little Longer 30-32. Florida Georgia Line Anything Goes 33-34. Parmalee Already Calling You Mine 33-34. Kenny Chesney Save It For A Rainy Day 35-36. Chris Young I'm Coming Over 35-36. Mickey Guyton Better Than You Left Me (50% chance of going recurrent) 37-38. Mo Pitney Country 37-38. Jana Kramer I Got The Boy 39. Hunter Hayes 21 40. Austin Webb All Country On You 41. Drake White It Feels Good 42-44. Miranda Lambert Smoking and Drinking 42-44. Chase Bryant Little Bit Of You 42-44. LoCash I Love This Life 45. Cam Burning House 46. Darius Rucker Southern Style 47. Thompson Square Trans Am 48. Billy Currington Drinking Town With A Football Problem 49-51. Montgomery Gentry Folks Like Us 49-51. Toby Keith 35 mph Town 49-51. The Cadilac Three White Lightning 52-53. Randy Houser We Went 52-53. A Thousand Horses This Ain't No Drunk Dial 54. Casey James Fall Apart (last week) 55. Aaron Watson That Look (last week) 56. Craig Campbell Tomorrow Tonight 57. Dierks Bentley Riser 58. Lee Brice That Don't Sound Like You 59. Steven Tyler Love Is Your Name 60. Ashley Monroe On To Something Good
Dropping Off Kelsea Ballerini Love Me Like You Mean It Logan Mize Cant Get Away From A Good Time
Other possible entries Lucy Angel Crazy Too Tyler Farr Withdrawls Kid Rock First Kiss Clare Dunn Move On Jackie Lee Headphones
Comments
Blake Shelton looks to spend his second week at the top. It remains to be seen if Blake goes for a third week. Jason is in hot pursuit and should land at #2 this week. Easton should peak at #3. Expect Canaan and LBT to surge into the Top 5. Brantley and Michael are also moving thru quickly. Carrie and Tim are spending their last week while Luke blasts into the Top 10. ZBB aren't far behind meanwhile Frankie looks to make the pass on Brad while Brad soon has to worry about Sam Hunt who is red hot and the strong and steady Dustin Lynch. Thomas Rhett looks to pass Eric Church while Brett Eldredge and Chris Janson continue to move up nad Keith Urban rounds out the Top 20. Maddie & Tae are still on the outside looking in. Meanwhile Jake Owen is in hot pursuit while Kip and Chase move along slowly. Lady A and Cole Swindell had goof weeks and one of the three (Kip Lady A, Cole) will miss out in the Top 25. Dan + Shay and Old Dominion continue to do well while Reba continues to crawl. Big & Rich are the favorites to enter the Top 30 with Brothers Osborne and FGL right behind. Parmalee has been sent back as Kenny blasts thru to the Top 40. Chris Young should move up. Meanwhile Mickey is running out of time. She could go but I left her on. Mo saw a flat week while Jana saw a decent week (A lot of the audience was Westwood One). Hunter Hayes continues to look good while Austin Webb should round out the Top 40. Drake White is coming close to Top 40. Meanwhile Miranda should sneak pass Chase and LoCash elsewhere Cam is about to make her move she will probably wind up at #45 this week but On The Verge will be in effect soon so expect Top 30 next week. Darius and Thompson Square continue to move slowly while Billy slowly closes in. Montgomery Gentry and Toby Keith are also moving slow. Randy Houser Craig Campbell are also struggling to build up more. Expect this to be the last week of Casey James and Aaron Wattson. A Thousand Horses look very strong to enter while Dierks should also sneak in. With Kelsea looking to be the only recurrent. Either Ashley Logan or Steven will get pushed out. Or 2 or 3 for that matter depends if Tyler Farr Kid Rock Lucy Angel or Clare Dunn are ready.
Housecleaning bells are ringing and we should see some soon.
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Deleted
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Post by Deleted on Jul 5, 2015 20:54:05 GMT -5
Here are my projections for tomorrow's Billboard chart! :) 01) Blake Shelton – “Sangria” (48.250) 02) Jason Aldean – “Tonight Looks Good On You” (46.190) 03) Easton Corbin – “Baby Be My Love Song” (41.470) [last week?]04) Canaan Smith – “Love You Like That” (39.210) 05) Little Big Town – “Girl Crush” (36.190) 06-07) Tim McGraw f/ Catherine Dunn – “Diamond Rings & Old Barstools” (33.410) [last week]06-07) Brantley Gilbert – “One Hell Of An Amen” (33.140) 08-10) Carrie Underwood – “Little Toy Guns” (32.850) [last week]08-10) Michael Ray – “Kiss You In The Morning” (32.420) 08-10) Kelsea Ballerini – “Love Me Like You Mean It” (32.300) [last week]11) Luke Bryan – “Kick The Dust Up” (30.060) 12) Zac Brown Band – “Loving You Easy” (28.580) 13-14) Frankie Ballard – “Young & Crazy” (28.000) 13-14) Brad Paisley – “Crushin’ It” (27.660) 15) Dustin Lynch – “Hell Of A Night” (24.700) 16) Sam Hunt – “House Party” (24.180) 17-18) Thomas Rhett – “Crash And Burn” (20.000) 17-18) Eric Church – “Like A Wrecking Ball” (19.690) 19) Chris Janson – “Buy Me A Boat” (18.720) 20) Brett Eldredge – “Lose My Mind” (18.340) 21) Keith Urban – “John Cougar, John Deere, John 3:16” (14.750) 22) Maddie & Tae – “Fly” (13.800) 23) Jake Owen – “Real Life” (13.490) 24) Chase Rice – “Gonna Wanna Tonight” (12.820) 25) Kip Moore – “I’m To Blame” (12.200) 26-27) Cole Swindell – “Let Me See Ya Girl” (11.780) 26-27) Lady Antebellum – “Long Stretch Of Love” (11.470) 28-29) Dan + Shay – “Nothin’ Like You” (10.810) 28-29) Old Dominion – “Break Up With Him” (10.640) 30-31) Reba – “Going Out Like That” (8.670) 30-31) Big & Rich – “Run Away With You” (8.600) 32) Brothers Osborne – “Stay A Little Longer” (8.310) 33-34) Florida Georgia Line – “Anything Goes” (7.910) 33-34) Parmalee – “Already Callin’ You Mine” (7.730) 35) Kenny Chesney – “Save It For A Rainy Day” (6.750) 36-37) Chris Young – “I’m Comin’ Over” (5.750) 36-37) Mickey Guyton – “Better Than You Left Me” (5.750) 38-39) Mo Pitney – “Country” (5.050) 38-39) Jana Kramer – “I Got The Boy” (4.960) 40) Hunter Hayes – “21” (4.610) 41) Austin Webb – “All Country On You” (4.370) 42) Drake White – “It Feels Good” (3.580) 43-45) LoCash – “I Love This Life” (3.190) 43-45) Chase Bryant – “Little Bit Of You” (3.140) 43-45) Miranda Lambert f/ Little Big Town – “Smokin’ And Drinkin’” (2.950) 46-48) Cam – “Burning House” (2.600) 46-48) Darius Rucker – “Southern Style” (2.600) 46-48) Billy Currington – “Drinkin’ Town With A Football Problem” (2.500) 49-50) Thompson Square – “Trans Am” (2.270) 49-50) Toby Keith – “35 mph Town” (2.130) 51-54) Montgomery Gentry – “Folks Like Us” 51-54) Aaron Watson – “That Look” 51-54) Casey James – “Fall Apart” [last week?]51-54) Randy Houser – “We Went” 55-56) The Cadillac Three – “White Lightning” 55-56) Craig Campbell – “Tomorrow Tonight” 57-58) Dierks Bentley – “Riser” [Re-Entry]57-58) A Thousand Horses – “(This Ain’t No) Drunk Dial” [NEW!]59-60) Lee Brice – “That Don’t Sound Like You” 59-60) Ashley Monroe – “On To Something Good” Dropping Off:* Steven Tyler's "Love Is Your Name" * Logan Mize's "Can't Get Away From A Good Time" Bubbling Under:...Granger Smith – “Backroad Song” ...Kelsea Ballerini – “Dibs” ...Steven Tyler – “Love Is Your Name” ...Logan Mize – “Can’t Get Away From A Good Time” ...Clare Dunn – “Move On” ...Lucy Angel – “Crazy Too” ...Tyler Farr – “Withdrawals” Comments:Blake Shelton will easily spend a 2nd week at #1, with Jason Aldean moving up to #2. Easton Corbin will move up to #3, but I'm confident that that's as high as he'll get; Carrie and Tim are both trying to go recurrent this week, but I don't think it'll happen. I expect Easton will drop just as hard this coming week. Look for Canaan Smith and Little Big Town to round out the top 5. There's a chance that Kelsea Ballerini could go recurrent; I'm quite confident she'll remain top 10 in audience, but if she falls to #11 in spins (behind Luke and/or Brad), then she would go recurrent. I think there's only about a 30% chance of Brad finishing ahead of Kelsea in spins, though (and maybe a 25% chance of Luke finishing ahead), and thus I think "Love Me Like You Mean It" will spend one more week on the chart. It's looking like it'll be somewhat close, though. Look for Zac Brown Band to push ahead of Brad Paisley, and I expect that Frankie Ballard will move ahead as well. The good news for Brad is that, if he can just hang on thru the 12th, he should be able to secure a top 10 peak, as Kelsea, Carrie, Tim, and Easton should all be recurrent by then. Sam Hunt, Chris Janson, Brett Eldredge, Keith Urban, and Jake Owen have all had strong weeks, whereas Maddie & Tae, Chase Rice, and Kip Moore continue to move more slowly. Dan + Shay have rebounded a bit this week, but Reba's GOLT continues to remain stagnant. It's looking like it'll be a close finish for the #30 spot between her and Big & Rich. Brothers Osborne and Chris Young continue to gain steam, and Kenny Chesney should rocket into the top 40. Meanwhile, Mickey Guyton, Mo Pitney, and Jana Kramer continue to move quite slowly. Drake White has had another decent week, and both Darius Rucker and Billy Currington have finally sparked a bit this week. Toby Keith has also had a decent week--he's clearly not the force he once was, and I doubt "35 mph Town" even makes the top 40--but a gain of more than 300k over the last 6 days isn't too bad. Thompson Square, Montgomery Gentry, and especially Lee Brice continue to struggle, whereas Cam is just beginning to take off. The adds date for "Burning House" is tomorrow, so expect the "On The Verge" airplay to kick in big time for Cam this week. Dierks Bentley and A Thousand Horses should debut rather easily, as it's been a good week for both "Riser" and "(This Ain't No) Drunk Dial". Either Granger Smith's "Backroad Song" or Kelsea Ballerini's "Dibs" could possibly sneak on at #60, but they'd probably need Kelsea's "Love Me Like You Mean It" to go recurrent, as I don't see either of the new tracks finishing ahead of Lee Brice or Ashley Monroe. It looks like Kid Rock is probably done, and Logan Mize might be as well. Clare Dunn, Steven Tyler, and Tyler Farr are really struggling to gain traction, but songs like "Dibs" and "Riser" are certainly off to encouraging starts. I expect a BIG housecleaning next week, which should mean a lot of movement and several new songs debuting. Edit: Wow, Kelsea and Carrie both went recurrent, and Mo Pitney did as well, because for some strange reason Billboard elected not to give him a grace week.
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carriekins
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Post by carriekins on Jul 5, 2015 21:08:59 GMT -5
(Riser is technically a re-entry, I believe, from when it charted in March?)
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Post by Deleted on Jul 5, 2015 21:14:22 GMT -5
Come on Kelsea go recurrent I want Dibs in the charts. Mickey is gonna stay? Jamie who are the canidates beside those 4 that go recurrent. Dang it jhomes does it so much better.
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Post by Deleted on Jul 5, 2015 22:01:47 GMT -5
(Riser is technically a re-entry, I believe, from when it charted in March?) Right you are! I forgot that. Come on Kelsea go recurrent I want Dibs in the charts. Mickey is gonna stay? I don't think anybody will go recurrent tomorrow, unless Kelsea does, but I think she'll easily finish ahead of Luke in audience, and I've got her finishing at #10 in spins, too, a few dozen spins ahead of Brad and perhaps 100+ spins ahead of Luke. If Mickey doesn't re-bullet then she'll automatically go recurrent...but she's gained almost 500k in the last 6 days on MB, so I don't see how that wouldn't translate to a small gain on Billboard. Her days are numbered, but I don't expect tomorrow to be the day that she finally throws in the towel. It looks like she'll hang around for another week, maybe even 2-3.. Carrie is trying to go recurrent all the way from #2, but I don't think she's quite gonna make it. "Little Toy Guns" has lost almost 14 million over the last 6 days, which is one of the steepest drops I've ever seen.
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CoJoFan
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Post by CoJoFan on Jul 6, 2015 17:56:39 GMT -5
1. Sangria- Blake Shelton 2. Tonight Looks Good On You- Jason Aldean 3. Baby Be My Love Song- Easton Corbin 4. Love You Like That- Canaan Smith 5. Girl Crush- Little Big Town 6. One Hell Of An Amen- Brantley Gilbert 7. Kiss You In The Morning- Michael Ray 8. Little Toy Guns- Carrie Underwood 9. Diamond Rings & Old Barstools- Tim McGraw w/Catherine Dunn 10. Kick The Dust Up- Luke Bryan 11. Loving You Easy- Zac Brown Band 12. Crushin' It- Brad Paisley 13. Young & Crazy- Frankie Ballard 14. Hell Of A Night- Dustin Lynch 15. House Party- Sam Hunt 16. Crash And Burn- Thomas Rhett 17. Like A Wrecking Ball- Eric Church 18. Lose My Mind- Brett Eldredge 19. Buy Me A Boat- Chris Janson 20. Fly- Maddie & Tae 21. I'm To Blame- Kip Moore 22. Real Life- Jake Owen 23. John Cougar, John Deere, John 3:16- Keith Urban 24. Long Stretch Of Love- Lady Antebellum 25. Going Out Like That- Reba 26. Gonna Wanna Tonight- Chase Rice 27. Nothin' Like You- Dan & Shay 28. Let Me See Ya Girl- Cole Swindell 29. Break Up With Him- Old Dominion 30. Run Away With You- Big & Rich 31. Anything Goes- Florida Georgia Line 32. Already Callin' You Mine- Parmalee 33. Stay A Little Longer- Brothers Osborne 34. I Got The Boy- Jana Kramer 35. All Country On You- Austin Webb 36. Better Than You Left Me- Mickey Guyton 37. Save It For A Rainy Day- Kenny Chesney 38. 21- Hunter Hayes 39. I'm Comin' Over- Chris Young 40. It Feels Good- Drake White
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onebuffalo
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Post by onebuffalo on Jul 6, 2015 17:58:47 GMT -5
Come on Kelsea go recurrent I want Dibs in the charts. Mickey is gonna stay? Jamie who are the canidates beside those 4 that go recurrent. Dang it jhomes does it so much better. Got your wish. #59 debut for Dibs.
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CoJoFan
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Post by CoJoFan on Jul 6, 2015 18:03:24 GMT -5
3 Debuts this week! #52 A Thousand Horses, #58 Granger Smith and #59 Kelsea Ballerini!
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Post by Deleted on Jul 6, 2015 19:11:45 GMT -5
3 Debuts this week! #52 A Thousand Horses, #58 Granger Smith and #59 Kelsea Ballerini! Wow, that's a little surprising to me. I was thinking Granger would be slightly down in audience from last week (New & Active had him at 815k), and I can't really find 4 songs that would have dropped off (to account for the 3 debuts, and also the re-entry of "Riser"). Kelsea's "Love Me Like You Mean It" must have lost just enough spins to have fallen off--that's one. Logan Mize and Steven Tyler make two and three. Ashley Monroe only had 848k last week and her song is basically done (only a couple of big stations are still playing it), but she gained 14 spins at KSCS Dallas (that's 980k from that one station alone), so I didn't see any way that she would have finished below Granger Smith. But I'm guessing that must be the case. Nothing else would really make sense. Maybe Lee Brice fell off? Mickey Guyton looks safe. Ah, oh well, we'll know soon when the chart is posted.
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CoJoFan
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Post by CoJoFan on Jul 6, 2015 19:16:35 GMT -5
3 Debuts this week! #52 A Thousand Horses, #58 Granger Smith and #59 Kelsea Ballerini! Wow, that's a little surprising to me. I was thinking Granger would be slightly down in audience from last week (New & Active had him at 815k), and I can't really find 4 songs that would have dropped off (to account for the 3 debuts, and also the re-entry of "Riser"). Kelsea's "Love Me Like You Mean It" must have lost just enough spins to have fallen off--that's one. Logan Mize and Steven Tyler make two and three. Ashley Monroe only had 848k last week and her song is basically done (only a couple of big stations are still playing it), but she gained 14 spins at KSCS Dallas (that's 980k from that one station alone), so I didn't see any way that she would have finished below Granger Smith. But I'm guessing that must be the case. Nothing else would really make sense. Maybe Lee Brice fell off? Mickey Guyton looks safe. Ah, oh well, we'll know soon when the chart is posted. It's out now! The chart is I just posted it!
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sabre14
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Post by sabre14 on Jul 6, 2015 19:20:48 GMT -5
3 Debuts this week! #52 A Thousand Horses, #58 Granger Smith and #59 Kelsea Ballerini! Wow, that's a little surprising to me. I was thinking Granger would be slightly down in audience from last week (New & Active had him at 815k), and I can't really find 4 songs that would have dropped off (to account for the 3 debuts, and also the re-entry of "Riser"). Kelsea's "Love Me Like You Mean It" must have lost just enough spins to have fallen off--that's one. Logan Mize and Steven Tyler make two and three. Ashley Monroe only had 848k last week and her song is basically done (only a couple of big stations are still playing it), but she gained 14 spins at KSCS Dallas (that's 980k from that one station alone), so I didn't see any way that she would have finished below Granger Smith. But I'm guessing that must be the case. Nothing else would really make sense. Maybe Lee Brice fell off? Mickey Guyton looks safe. Ah, oh well, we'll know soon when the chart is posted. Mo Pitney's "Country" went recurrent.
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Post by Deleted on Jul 6, 2015 19:25:17 GMT -5
Wow, that's a little surprising to me. I was thinking Granger would be slightly down in audience from last week (New & Active had him at 815k), and I can't really find 4 songs that would have dropped off (to account for the 3 debuts, and also the re-entry of "Riser"). Kelsea's "Love Me Like You Mean It" must have lost just enough spins to have fallen off--that's one. Logan Mize and Steven Tyler make two and three. Ashley Monroe only had 848k last week and her song is basically done (only a couple of big stations are still playing it), but she gained 14 spins at KSCS Dallas (that's 980k from that one station alone), so I didn't see any way that she would have finished below Granger Smith. But I'm guessing that must be the case. Nothing else would really make sense. Maybe Lee Brice fell off? Mickey Guyton looks safe. Ah, oh well, we'll know soon when the chart is posted. Mo Pitney's "Country" went recurrent. Wow, that's a shocker. Perhaps more shocking: "Little Toy Guns" went recurrent all the way from #2. Carrie is still top 10 in audience, but she must have fallen below Luke and Brad in the spins column. It makes absolutely no sense that Mo went recurrent. He hasn't gotten a grace week yet, and he didn't even lose 170k on MB last week. I'm...sort of angry. It's obvious that Curb isn't done with that one. They've had ads out almost every week. I'm already going to predict a re-entry in a week or two. Stupid Billboard.
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sabre14
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Post by sabre14 on Jul 6, 2015 19:28:09 GMT -5
Mo Pitney's "Country" went recurrent. Wow, that's a shocker. Perhaps more shocking: "Little Toy Guns" went recurrent all the way from #2. Carrie is still top 10 in audience, but she must have fallen below Luke and Brad in the spins column. I'm blown away (no pun intended) as well. "Country" gained about 200k in audience on MB this week and I did not see Mo leaving the Billboard chart. Can't believe Carrie left too. :o
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Post by Deleted on Jul 6, 2015 19:30:48 GMT -5
Wow, that's a shocker. Perhaps more shocking: "Little Toy Guns" went recurrent all the way from #2. Carrie is still top 10 in audience, but she must have fallen below Luke and Brad in the spins column. I'm blown away (no pun intended) as well. "Country" gained about 200k in audience on MB this week and I did not see Mo leaving the Billboard chart. Can't believe Carrie left too. :o You're a Mediabase guy, so it's natural that you'd align Mo's gain to the MB tracking week. But when aligned to the BB tracking week, Mo lost 165k on MB. Still, Billboard NEVER sends songs recurrent when they lose so little. Dozens of songs get grace weeks for such a small loss, and sometimes they get multiple grace weeks (such as in Mickey Guyton's case). I...don't understand why Billboard wanted to send Mo recurrent. It doesn't make any sense.
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sabre14
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Post by sabre14 on Jul 6, 2015 19:33:15 GMT -5
I'm blown away (no pun intended) as well. "Country" gained about 200k in audience on MB this week and I did not see Mo leaving the Billboard chart. Can't believe Carrie left too. :o You're a Mediabase guy, so it's natural that you'd align Mo's gain to the MB tracking week. But when aligned to the BB tracking week, Mo lost 165k on MB. Still, Billboard NEVER sends songs recurrent when they lose so little. Dozens of songs get grace weeks for such a small loss, and sometimes they get multiple grace weeks (such as in Mickey Guyton's case). I...don't understand why Billboard wanted to send Mo recurrent. It doesn't make any sense. It took me a minute to find the song that went recurrent because I just couldn't believe that "Country" would be gone. Like you said, I'm more MB and you're Billboard, so if I'm shocked, then you must be flabbergasted.
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Post by Deleted on Jul 6, 2015 19:37:34 GMT -5
It took me a minute to find the song that went recurrent because I just couldn't believe that "Country" would be gone. Like you said, I'm more MB and you're Billboard, so if I'm shocked, then you must be flabbergasted. Yeah, I'm pretty shocked. Again, it just doesn't make sense. Week after week, they'll give a song a grace week if its loss is so small. Heck, a song can lose more than 50 spins and 400-500k in audience, and sometimes it'll still get a grace week. Mo has shown no signs of being in trouble. Heck, just last week he gained 632k on Billboard. I have no idea who the bonehead is who made the decision to send "Country" recurrent tonight. I think this is probably the most shocked I've been when it comes to Billboard sending a song recurrent prematurely. Then again, I haven't really kept track of the silly instances over the last few years, but still.
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sabre14
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Post by sabre14 on Jul 6, 2015 19:41:16 GMT -5
It took me a minute to find the song that went recurrent because I just couldn't believe that "Country" would be gone. Like you said, I'm more MB and you're Billboard, so if I'm shocked, then you must be flabbergasted. Yeah, I'm pretty shocked. Again, it just doesn't make sense. Week after week, they'll give a song a grace week if its loss is so small. Heck, a song can lose more than 50 spins and 400-500k in audience, and sometimes it'll still get a grace week. Mo has shown no signs of being in trouble. Heck, just last week he gained 632k on Billboard. I have no idea who the bonehead is who made the decision to send "Country" recurrent tonight. I think this is probably the most shocked I've been when it comes to Billboard sending a song recurrent prematurely. Then again, I haven't really kept track of the silly instances over the last few years, but still. Montgomery Gentry lost 345k in audience and Casey lost 618k in audience, and they're still there. I'm not going to pretend to know more about this chart than you since nobody does, but is there a logical reason why those two songs are still there and Mo is not? Charting weeks? I'm dying to speak to the people at Billboard who are in charge of putting this Airplay chart together, cause wow.
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Post by Deleted on Jul 6, 2015 19:54:36 GMT -5
Montgomery Gentry lost 345k in audience and Casey lost 618k in audience, and they're still there. I'm not going to pretend to know more about this chart than you since nobody does, but is there a logical reason why those two songs are still there and Mo is not? Charting weeks? I'm dying to speak to the people at Billboard who are in charge of putting this Airplay chart together, cause wow. Oh, no, this makes perfect sense. Casey's song is only 14 weeks old, and MG's is only 19 weeks old. They can't go recurrent until they've had 3 bullet-less weeks in a row. You should know that, sabre14, it's the same as on Mediabase :) Casey's song didn't have a bullet last week, but it did have a bullet in week 12. MG had a bullet last week yet. This means that Casey will go recurrent next week unless he re-bullets, whereas the soonest that MG can go recurrent is Monday the 20th (if they don't bullet on the 13th and the 20th). The only difference is that Billboard will pull a 21+ weeks-old song after 1 week if its loss is big enough. I've always liked that rule, and I still do, because it frees up space a lot quicker than on Mediabase. Last Monday was Mo's 22nd week on Billboard, so the 3 consecutive bullet-less weeks rule no longer applies to him. Anyway, the reason why I like the rule (other than the fact that it frees up chart space quickly) is because Billboard usually always knows when to give a grace week, and when to NOT give one. But tonight they completely goofed. I don't like how Mediabase will leave songs like "Little Toy Guns" and "Riot" on the chart after they are obviously done. I like how Billboard pulls the old songs (21+ weeks) after 1 week, and how they pull songs (LTG) as soon as they leave the top 10, so long as they are also 21+ weeks old. Anyway, last week on BB, Mickey Guyton had a grace week despite a loss of 81 spins and 141k in audience. Mo's loss was probably about 150k and maybe 5-15 spins. How in the world that didn't earn him a grace week is beyond me.
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sabre14
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Post by sabre14 on Jul 6, 2015 20:02:48 GMT -5
^ I knew the rule but I was just trying to comprehend "Country" leaving I guess, lol. Perhaps they just felt like not giving that grace week to Mo here. That makes me angry if that's just the nuts and bolts of this. If you give grace weeks, then don't pick and choose who doesn't get them. You said Mo didn't lose enough audience to justify being pulled, so it just baffles me.
I'm now on mobile so I can't look myself but how often did Mo have week where he lost audience on Billboard before last week?
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Post by Deleted on Jul 6, 2015 20:19:59 GMT -5
^ I knew the rule but I was just trying to comprehend "Country" leaving I guess, lol. Perhaps they just felt like not giving that grace week to Mo here. That makes me angry if that's just the nuts and bolts of this. If you give grace weeks, then don't pick and choose who doesn't get them. You said Mo didn't lose enough audience to justify being pulled, so it just baffles me. I'm now on mobile so I can't look myself but how often did Mo have week where he lost audience on Billboard before last week? Just to clarify: a song can lose audience, but it only counts as a grace week if it loses its bullet too (I think you know this, so this is more aimed at people who don't). An audience loss doesn't always mean the loss of a bullet. For example, Parmalee is showing a loss of 149k on tonight's Billboard chart, but it's not a grace week, because they still kept their bullet. The "#32" circle is darkened, indicating a bullet. LoCash also lost 78k in audience, but they have a bullet as well. This is straight from Nielsen BDS: Usually anything less than 400-500k is small enough that Billboard will give a grace week. It's incredibly rare for them to send a song recurrent when its loss is smaller than 400k, and especially when its loss is less than 200k. We can't know how much Mo lost, but again, since he only lost 165k on MB in the last 7 days, I can't imagine that his BB loss was much bigger. Under a normal translation his BB loss would have probably been around 150k (BB numbers, whether it's a gain or a loss, are almost always smaller than MB numbers). Anyway, just looking at the last 4 chart weeks for Mo (on Billboard): Week Ending June 7: +0.687 million Week Ending June 14: +0.183 million Week Ending June 21: -0.116 million (this was his 21st week, but it did NOT count as a grace week because he had a bullet. He was #38, and the circle was darkened, which indicates a bullet. Furthermore, the only reason he had a slight decrease was because he had fallen out of the MB top 40 the Sunday before.) Week Ending June 28: +0.632 million (he had a nice week, partially because he re-entered the MB top 40 on Sunday the 21st, which meant he returned to Bob Kingsley's countdown on the 28th). Week Ending July 5: WTF suddenly he's gone? Again, it just makes no sense that he wasn't given a grace week tonight. Now what will happen is that Mo will re-bullet next week and he'll make Billboard look stupid.
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Post by Libra on Jul 7, 2015 14:11:02 GMT -5
Adding even further insult to injury..."Folks Like Us", mentioned above, suffered its FIFTH bullet loss in its run last night. With all these recurrency shenanigans, though, I'd almost wonder if Billboard were straight-up trolling you jhomes87. ;)
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Post by Deleted on Jul 7, 2015 17:23:32 GMT -5
Adding even further insult to injury..."Folks Like Us", mentioned above, suffered its FIFTH bullet loss in its run last night. With all these recurrency shenanigans, though, I'd almost wonder if Billboard were straight-up trolling you jhomes87. ;) Nah. "Folks Like Us" has never had more than 2 bullet-less weeks in a row, and so it's never been eligible to go recurrent (it's not to the 21-week mark yet). "Country" was technically eligible to go recurrent last night, but it absolutely 100% should have gotten a grace week because its loss was so small. Billboard has never sent songs recurrent when their drop was as small as Mo's was. Anyway, last week wasn't very good for Montgomery Gentry so I suspect that next week (it'll be their 20th week on the chart) will be their last week on, unless they can somehow re-bullet.
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