onebuffalo
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Post by onebuffalo on Jan 13, 2016 18:42:30 GMT -5
Thanks. This was the last post in the Gonna thread:
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Post by Deleted on Jan 13, 2016 18:45:49 GMT -5
Thanks. This was the last post in the Gonna thread: Right. But we've gotten new info since then. Some radio stations have been told by Blake's label that a new single won't be out until closer to spring.
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Post by Deleted on Jan 17, 2016 13:05:20 GMT -5
Billboard Top 60 Country Airplay (1.) Thomas Rhett Die A Happy Man (2-3.) Brothers Osborne Stay A Little Longer (2-3.) LoCash I Love This Life (4.) Luke Bryan & Karen Fairchild Home Alone Tonight (5.) Jana Kramer I Got The Boy (last week?) (6.) Sam Hunt Breakup In A Small Town (7.) Jason Aldean Gonna Know We Were Here (last week) (8.) Granger Smith Backroad Song (9.) Kelsea Ballerini Dibs (10.) Keith Urban Break On Me (11.) Randy Houser We Went (12.) Brad Paisley Country Nation (13-14.) Zac Brown Band Beautiful Drug (13-14.) Carrie Underwood Heartbeat (15-16.) Eric Church Mr. Misunderstood (15-16.) Florida Georgia Line Confession (17.) Rascal Flatts I Like The Sound Of That (18.) Chase Bryant Little Bit Of You (19.) Cole Swindell You Should Be Here (20.) Brett Eldredge Drunk On Your Love (21.) Chris Stapleton Nobody To Blame (22-23.) Lee Brice That Don't Sound Like You (last week?) (22-23.) Old Dominion Snapback (24.) Michael Ray Real Men Love Jesus (25-26.) Dustin Lynch Mind Reader (25-26.) Brantley Gilbert Stone Cold Sober (27.) Tyler Farr Better In Boots (28.) Maddie & Tae Shut Up & Fish (29-31.) Jon Pardi Head Over Boots (29-31.) Frankie Ballard It All Started With A Beer (29-31.) Chris Lane Fix (32.) David Nail Nights On Fire (33.) Maren Morris My Church (34.) Canaan Smith Hole In A Bottle (35.) Easton Corbin Yup (last week?) (36-37.) Justin Moore You Look Like I Need A Drink (36-37.) Kip Moore Running For You (38.) Little Big Town Pain Killer (last week?) (39.) William Michael Morgan I Met A Girl (40.) Eric Paslay High Class (41.) Dylan Scott Crazy Over Me (42.) Chris Janson Power Of Positive Drinking (43.) Chris Young & Cassadee Pope Think Of You (44.) Drake White Living The Dream (45.) Hank Williams Jr Are You Ready For The Country (46.) Joe Nichols Freaks Like Me (47.) Lindsay Ell By The Way (48.) Charles Kelley The Driver (49-51.) Lauren Alaina Next Boyfriend (49-51.) Scotty McCreery Southern Belle (last week) (49-51.) Craig Morgan When I'm Gone (52-53.) Big & Rich Loving Lately (52-53.) Sam Hunt Raised On It (54.) Toby Keith Beautiful Stranger (55-57.) Ryan Kinder Tonight (55-57.) Love & Theft Whiskey On My Breath (55-57.) Steven Tyler Red White & You [New!] (58.) Jennifer Nettles Unlove You [New!] (59.) Josh Abbot Band Amnesia (60.) Chris Stapleton Tennessee Whiskey [Re-Enter]
New & Active Trace Adkins Jesus And Jones Justin Timberlake Drink You Away Kenny Chesney Drink It Up Drew Baldridge Dance With Ya Ashley Campbell Remembering Jordan Rager Feels Like One Of Them Rachelle Lynae Quicksand Brandy Clark Girl Next Door Tim McGraw Humble and Kind Brooke Eden Daddy's Money
Going Recurrent or Leaving Blake Shelton Gonna Peak: 1, Weeks 25 Tim McGraw Top Of The World Peak: 5, Weeks 23 A Thousand Horses (This Ain't No) Drunk Dial Peak: 23 Weeks 26
Comments For the first time since late 2009 we have our very first 5-week #1 with "Die A Happy Man" (the last time was when "Need You Now" by Lady Antebellum spent 5 weeks at the top). Now because of this Thomas Rhett has blocked Cam, Jason Aldean, and LoCash all from that top spot. This looks like it'll be the last week for "Die A Happy Man" to be at the top.
Anyway look for Brothers Osborne to possibly sneak ahead of LoCash for the #2 spot. "Stay A Little Longer" looks to become the Brothers Osborne first #1 song next week. LoCash look to either peak at #2 or #3. Luke Bryan & Karen Fairchild look to rocket into the Top 5 with Jana Kramer set to become the first woman since Miranda Lambert to score two Top 5s. This will more than likely be the last week for "I Got The Boy". As the label apparently prepares to release "Said No One Ever" as the followup single.
Sam Hunt looks to be setback out of the Top 5 for this week but he will easily be back. Now I do think Sam is in a little bind to hit the top on BB because I think he will need to pass Luke & Karen before he's ready to peak. Jason Aldean is going to be at his final week. Granger Smith, Kelsea Ballerini, and Keith Urban all pick up Top 10 conversions as Kelsea and Keith enter the Top 10.
Randy Houser is going to be just outside the Top 10 as he prepares for when his album drops. Brad Paisley looks to set a new peak of #12 but he will need to hold off Carrie Underwood, Zac Brown Band, and FGL. I continue to remain curious about how well "Beautiful Drug" will do as this is week 19 for the song and "Heartbeat" has also caught up to it. I also think it won't be long before "Confession" and "Mr. Misunderstood" catch up. Eric Church and especially Florida Georgia Line have very strong weeks. Rascal Flatts is also having a solid week. Chase Bryant looks to be staying behind the others but will set a new peak of #18. Cole Swindell and Brett Eldredge have very strong weeks as they look to make it into the Top 20. As Chris Stapleton remains just outside the Top 20.
Lee Brice actually had a pretty good week but I still believe that any week he will leave. I think "That Don't Sound Like You" will be leaving soon enough. Old Dominion continue their very strong and fast start with "Snapback" and should be in the Top 20 next week. Michael Ray looks to move into the Top 25 but his song still isn't selling well. Dustin Lynch has the slight edge to pick up the last Top 25 but Brantley Gilbert might have a shot at it. Tyler Farr "Better In Boots" continue to move up nicely and should land at #27. Maddie & Tae look to have officially broken The Wreckers curse as they pick up their third straight Top 30 with "Shut Up & Fish". Jon Pardi, Frankie Ballard, and Chris Lane look to compete for the last Top 30 spot. For Chris Lane this will be his first, for Jon Pardi this would be his third (Up All Night and Missing You Crazy) and for Frankie Ballard his fifth Top 30 song.
David Nail looks to be just outside the Top 30 for another week while OTV boosted Maren Morris "My Church" will probably hit the Top 30 next week. Canaan Smith sees slow progress. Easton Corbin looks to soon leave as he's on his 25th week now so I do think he is also nearing the end of the road. Justin Moore looks to pass by Kip Moore as Kip experiences a slower week while Justin moves in strongly. Little Big Town "Pain Killer" looks to not be moving all that much so I can see that one leaving soon. William Michael Morgan looks to get his bullet back and it looks like Eric Paslay will edge Dylan Scott out for the last Top 40 spot.
Chris Janson sees some slow progress as Chris Young & Cassadee Pope will be blasting into Top 50 and look to possibly go all the way up to #43. Drake White has a really flat week. Hank Jr looks to move back up to at least around where he peaked before probably setting a new peak of #45. Joe Nichols has seen a nice surge of movement and should move all the way up to #46. Unfortunately Lindsay Ell "By The Way" looks to lose her bullet and will be stuck at #47 more than likely. Charles Kelley "The Driver" is picking up the pace and should land at #48 this week. Lauren Alaina and Craig Morgan see slow rather flat weeks and look to stay right where their peaks are. Scotty McCreery will be spending his final week as he looks to have given up the fight.
Big & Rich "Loving Lately" are on the move as they move up nicely through the 50s. Sam Hunt "Raised On It" looks to pass Toby Keith has one of his better weeks and might be able to pass the struggling Love & Theft "Whiskey On My Breath" and Ryan Kinder "Tonight", as neither song is moving all that much. Steven Tyler "Red White & You" looks to enter the Top 60 just based on KKBQ alone. Jennifer Nettles new song "Unlove You" will also enter this week and is already off to a pretty decent start. Josh Abbott Band "Amnesia" will spend another week in the Top 60 thanks to KSCS. Chris Stapleton "Tennessee Whiskey" looks to re-enter.
Next week we will be seeing Dierks Bentley enter with his new song. Trace Adkins will more than likely next week. I also can see Drew Baldridge, Justin Timberlake, and Jordan Rager soon getting in with the ladies Brandy Clark, Tara Thompson, and Brooke Eden probably entering sometime in February. The AirPlay charts are going to see more casualties soon enough (Lee Brice, Little Big Town, Easton Corbin, Brad Paisley, Jana Kramer, Jason Aldean, and LoCash), all those artists I listed all look like songs that are soon going to leave soon enough and for some next week looks to be the end.
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Post by Deleted on Jan 24, 2016 16:38:32 GMT -5
Billboard Top 60 Country Airplay (1-2.) Brothers Osborne Stay A Little Longer (1-2.) Thomas Rhett Die A Happy Man (3.) Luke Bryan & Karen Fairchild Home Alone Tonight (4.) Sam Hunt Breakup In A Small Town (5-6.) LoCash I Love This Life (last week) (5-6.) Granger Smith Backroad Song (7-8.) Keith Urban Break On Me (7-8.) Kelsea Ballerini Dibs (9-10.) Jason Aldean Gonna Know We Were Here (last week) (9-10.) Randy Houser We Went (11.) Carrie Underwood Heartbeat (12.) Zac Brown Band Beautiful Drug (13.) Brad Paisley Country Nation (14.) Florida Georgia Line Confession (15.) Cole Swindell You Should Be Here (16.) Eric Church Mr. Misunderstood (17-19.) Chase Bryant Little Bit Of You (17-19.) Brett Eldredge Drunk On Your Love (17-19.) Rascal Flatts I Like The Sound Of That (20.) Chris Stapleton Nobody To Blame (21.) Old Dominion Snapback (22.) Lee Brice That Don't Sound Like You (last week?) (23-24.) Michael Ray Real Men Love Jesus (23-24.) Dustin Lynch Mind Reader (25.) Maren Morris My Church (26.) Tyler Farr Better In Boots (27.) Brantley Gilbert Stone Cold Sober (28.) Jon Pardi Head Over Boots (29.) Maddie & Tae Shut Up & Fish (30.) Chris Lane Fix (31.) Dierks Bentley Somewhere On A Beach (New!) (32-33.) David Nail Nights On Fire (32-33.) Frankie Ballard It All Started With A Beer (34.) Canaan Smith Hole In A Bottle (35.) Justin Moore You Look Like I Need A Drink (36.) Kip Moore Running For You (37.) Easton Corbin Yup (last week?) (38-39.) Chris Young & Cassadee Pope Think Of You (38-39.) William Michael Morgan I Met A Girl (40.) Eric Paslay High Class (41-43.) Big & Rich Loving Lately (41-43.) Dylan Scott Crazy Over Me (41-43.) Chris Janson Power Of Positive Drinking (44-45.) Lindsay Ell By The Way (44-45.) Drake White Living The Dream (46-47.) Joe Nichols Freaks Like Me (46-47.) Craig Morgan When I'm Gone (48-49.) Lauren Alaina Next Boyfriend (48-49.) Charles Kelley The Driver (50.) Sam Hunt Raised On It (51.) Love & Theft Whiskey On My Breath (52.) Ryan Kinder Tonight (53.) Jennifer Nettles Unlove You (54-55.) Toby Keith Beautiful Stranger (54-55.) Steven Tyler Red White & You (56.) Trace Adkins Jesus And Jones (New!) (57.) Chris Stapleton Tennessee Whiskey (58.) Josh Abbot Band Amnesia (59.) Tim McGraw Humble and Kind (New!) (60.) Justin Timberlake Drink You Away (New!)
New & Active Drew Baldridge Dance With Ya Ashley Campbell Remembering Cam Mayday Jordan Rager Feels Like One Of Them Rachelle Lynae Quicksand Brandy Clark Girl Next Door Brooke Eden Daddy's Money
Going Recurrent or Leaving Jana Kramer I Got The Boy: Weeks; 47, Peak; 6 Little Big Town Pain Killer: Weeks; 21, Peak; 38 Hank Williams Jr Are You Ready For The Country: Weeks; 9, Peak; 45 Scotty McCreery Southern Belle: Weeks; 18, Peak: 45
Comments We are going to have ourselves another housecleaning this week as we should see 3-4 recurrent songs (Jana, Hank Jr, and Scotty for sure, Little Big Town I put at a 70% chance of leaving as well). With all these songs leaving we should see the charts loosen up a little bit.
At the top of the charts we have a very close race between Brothers Osborne "Stay A Little Longer" and the 5-week reigning champion Thomas Rhett "Die A Happy Man". Right now I'm giving the slight edge to Brothers Osborne but expect Thomas to stay on the chart for a while as he's going to very slowly fall. Luke & Karen will be taking their hit "Home Alone Tonight" into the Top 3 and are the frontrunner to hit the top of the chart. Sam Hunt looks to set a new peak of #4 but may find himself in a little bit of a bind to get the top spot as he will need to pass Luke Bryan in order to have that top spot. LoCash look to be falling as Granger Smith could possibly pick up his first Top 5 this week on Billboard.
Outside the Top 5 Keith Urban "Break On Me" continues to see very good progress as Kelsea Ballerini "Dibs" remains hot on his tail as both see more Top 10 conversions. Randy Houser "We Went" should pick up his fifth straight Top 10 and Jason Aldean should spend his final week on the chart since Jana Kramer just fell so hard she basically covered him.
Carrie Underwood is just outside the Top 10 with "Heartbeat" and is looking to have a smooth ride to the Top spot. Zac Brown Band are also looking to the top 10 soon as well. Brad Paisley "Country Nation" continues to really struggle as Cole Swindell and FGL are looking to close in fast. I have my doubts Brad can get the Top 10 as next week the Top 10 spots will go to ZBB and Carrie Underwood and by then Cole Swindell should have caught up by then.
Speaking of Cole Swindell look for him and FGL to come storming into the Top 15 pushing out a really badly struggling Eric Church. It also remains to be seen how much higher "Mr. Misunderstood" can get before all is said and done. Brett Eldredge "Drunk On Your Love" is surging ahead of the slow moving Chase Bryant and Rascal Flatts. The last spot for the Top 20 looks to easily go to Chris Stapleton with "Nobody To Blame".
Old Dominion will have to wait for one more week for that Top 20 but these guys are still off to a very great start Lee Brice, Michael Ray, and Dustin Lynch continue to move slowly through the 20s as Maren Morris comes rocking into the Top 25. Brantley Gilbert and Tyler Farr also move slowly as well. Jon Pardi sees a rather great week as he passes a slower moving Maddie & Tae. Chris Lane should round out the Top 30 for the second week in a row.
Frankie Ballard and David Nail remain just outside the Top 30 as Dierks Bentley new song "Somewhere On A Beach" should debut just outside the Top 30. Despite horrible sales Canaan Smith "Hole In A Bottle" sees some decent movement along with Justin Moore (he has good sales) and Kip Moore. Easton Corbin continues to move very little and stays behind the competition. Chris Young & Cassadee Pope should come easily into the Top 40 I am expecting them to land at #38. William Michael Morgan continues to do ok but man he really needs to get in that MB Top 40 badly. Eric Paslay should round out the Top 40.
Big & Rich continue their solid start as they are just below the Top 40 as they should pass Dylan Scott and Chris Janson. Lindsay Ell "By The Way" didn't have a very great week but it's looking like she will at least temporarily pass Drake White "Living The Dream". Joe Nichols "Freaks Like Me" looks to be nearing the end of the road as Joe hasn't had a very good week. Craig Morgan should set a new peak as sees one of his best weeks yet. Lauren Alaina "Next Boyfriend" probably won't last a whole lot longer but look for her to pass Charles Kelley. Sam Hunt non radio song "Raised On It" should land at #50
The procrastinating songs in the 50s continues with Ryan Kinder, Toby Keith, and Love & Theft. Jennifer Nettles "Unlove You" continues to do pretty well while Steven Tyler gets ready for his add date coming up. Trace Adkins look to debut rather easily. Chris Stapleton looks to stay with his hot selling "Tennessee Whiskey". Josh Abbott Band and Justin Timberlake will be on this upcoming chart both though are only getting supported by only one of the stations.
Next week looks like LoCash and Jason Aldean will both leave and I think Easton Corbin could leave as well with Lee Brice as a possibility.
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onebuffalo
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Post by onebuffalo on Jan 24, 2016 16:43:50 GMT -5
Thanks raylatch98. A must read before the actual chart comes out. I hope you're right about Justin Timberlake.
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Post by Deleted on Jan 24, 2016 16:46:48 GMT -5
Thanks raylatch98 . A must read before the actual chart comes out. I hope you're right about Justin Timberlake. It all depends on whether or not Little Big Town leaves or not sabre14 or jhomes87 just by looking at the numbers how likely is it that LBT goes recurrent.
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Post by Deleted on Jan 25, 2016 3:58:56 GMT -5
Thanks raylatch98 . A must read before the actual chart comes out. I hope you're right about Justin Timberlake. It all depends on whether or not Little Big Town leaves or not sabre14 or jhomes87 just by looking at the numbers how likely is it that LBT goes recurrent. It's hard to say. They're eligible to go recurrent, but they're also eligible for a grace week. Billboard will do what they want to do.
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Mr. Thonk Eyes
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Post by Mr. Thonk Eyes on Jan 25, 2016 10:30:19 GMT -5
It's gonna be a good race for the #1 spot. Brothers Osborne are slightly ahead in audience in this morning's Mediabase update, but I have a feeling that Thomas could hang on for one last week. Either way, I'm predicting a photo finish for the top when the chart comes out later today.
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Post by Deleted on Jan 31, 2016 15:43:52 GMT -5
Billboard Top 60 Country Airplay (1.) Luke Bryan & Karen Fairchild Home Alone Tonight (2.) Sam Hunt Breakup In A Small Town (3.) Thomas Rhett Die A Happy Man (4-5.) Granger Smith Backroad Song (4-5.) Brothers Osborne Stay A Little Longer (6.) Kelsea Ballerini Dibs (7.) Keith Urban Break On Me (8.) Carrie Underwood Heartbeat (9-10.) LoCash I Love This Life (last week) (9-10.) Randy Houser We Went (11.) Zac Brown Band Beautiful Drug (12.) Brad Paisley Country Nation (13.) Florida Georgia Line Confession (14-17.) Brett Eldredge Drunk On Your Love (14-17.) Cole Swindell You Should Be Here (14-17.) Rascal Flatts I Like The Sound Of That (14-17.) Chase Bryant Little Bit Of You (18.) Eric Church Mr. Misunderstood (19.) Chris Stapleton Nobody To Blame (20.) Old Dominion Snapback (21.) Maren Morris My Church (22.) Lee Brice That Don't Sound Like You (23-24.) Dustin Lynch Mind Reader (23-24.) Michael Ray Real Men Love Jesus (25.) Brantley Gilbert Stone Cold Sober (26-28.) Chris Young & Cassadee Pope Think Of You (26-28.) Dierks Bentley Somewhere On A Beach (26-28.) Tyler Farr Better In Boots (29.) Maddie & Tae Shut Up & Fish (30.) Chris Lane Fix (31-33.) Jon Pardi Head Over Boots (31-33.) Frankie Ballard It All Started With A Beer (31-33.) David Nail Nights On Fire (34.) Canaan Smith Hole In A Bottle (35-36.) Justin Moore You Look Like I Need A Drink (35-36.) Kip Moore Running For You (37.) William Michael Morgan I Met A Girl (38.) Easton Corbin Yup (re-enter) (39.) Dylan Scott Crazy Over Me (40-41.) Big & Rich Loving Lately (40-41.) Eric Paslay High Class (42.) Chris Janson Power Of Positive Drinking (43.) Tim McGraw Humble and Kind (44.) Drake White Living The Dream (45.) Lindsay Ell By The Way (46-47) Love & Theft Whiskey On My Breath (46-47.) Charles Kelley The Driver (48.) Joe Nichols Freaks Like Me (49-50.) Jennifer Nettles Unlove You (49-50.) Lauren Alaina Next Boyfriend (51.) Steven Tyler Red White & You (52-53.) Trace Adkins Jesus And Jones (52-53.) Craig Morgan When I'm Gone (54.) Thomas Rhett T-Shirt (New!) (55-57.) Sam Hunt Raised On It (55-57.) Toby Keith Beautiful Stranger (55-57.) Ryan Kinder Tonight (58.) Chris Stapleton Tennessee Whiskey (59-60.) Jordan Rager Southern Boy (New!) (59-60.) Drew Baldridge Dance With Ya (New!)
New & Active Ashley Campbell Remembering Cam Mayday Matt Gary It's On You LoCash I Know Somebody Brooke Eden Daddy's Money Brandy Clark Girl Next Door Billy Currington It Don't Hurt Like It Used To Miranda Lambert Sweet By And By Rachelle Lynae Quicksand Reba Just Like Them Horses Eric Church Record Year Clare Dunn Tuxedo
Going Recurrent or Leaving Jason Aldean Gonna Know We Were Here: Peak; 2, Weeks 26 Hank Williams Jr Are You Ready For The Country: Peak; 45, Weeks 10 Josh Abbott Band Amnesia: Peak; 58, Weeks 3 Justin Timberlake Drink You Away: Peak; 60, Weeks 1
Comments * The charts are back to slowing down as despite having 4 songs dropping out we won't see a lot of movement.
* Luke & Karen look to spend their first week at the top. It remains to be seen how exactly Sam Hunt can hit the top as "Breakup In A Small town" might have met it's match and might start falling next week. Remains to be determined but I think Sam will miss the top spot.
* Brothers Osborne and Thomas Rhett both start falling as Granger Smith continues to see more Top 5 conversions and should easily hit the top spot once Luke and Sam Hunt clear out. Kelsea Ballerini "Dibs" looks to vault from #9 to #6 and could land as high as number #3 this next week if Sam falls.
* Keith Urban, Carrie Underwood, and Randy Houser see nice gains in the top 10 and I think at the very least all will at least be MB-only #1s (We Went has the highest chance of that happening). LoCash will spend their final week as they are getting some early spins and stations for their new single "I Know Somebody"
* Zac Brown Band looks to be just outside the Top 10. I still have this feeling this song could miss the top spot due to how many weeks have piled on for "Beautiful Drug". Brad Paisley "Country Nation" looks to be nearing the end. The gains for this song this week might've indicated that they tried for a last push to hit the Top 10 the gains just seem a little too big to indicate otherwise.
* Florida Georgia Line "Confession" continue to move nicely and should pass Brad Paisley next week (provided he doesn't give up as it is.) Chase Bryant, Brett Eldredge, Cole Swindell, and Rascal Flatts look to have a photo finish for the last two spots in the Top 15. Right now I'm giving the edge to the faster moving Brett Eldredge and Cole Swindell, with Rascal Flatts and Chase Bryant just missing out.
* Eric Church "Mr Misunderstood" begins the ascent down as Chris Stapleton continue to move solidly up. Coming in fast though is Old Dominion "Snapback" as the guys pick up their second Top 20.
* Maren Morris is moving up very fast and should easily next week score her very first Top 20. Lee Brice meanwhile continues to remain stuck at #22 for the third straight week in a row. I still believe "That Don't Sound Like You" is nearing the end, just might come later instead of sooner. Dustin Lynch looks to pass Michael Ray as "Real Men Love Jesus" isn't seeing a lot of progress. Brantley Gilbert will round out the Top 25.
* Tyler Farr has really slowed down and is starting to face some trouble. Chris Young & Cassadee Pope will come rocking into the Top 30. Dierks Bentley will move up a spot next week as his lost after his high debut won't be all that bad. Maddie & Tae and Chris Lane wrap up the Top 30, neither of them have had particularly strong week.
* Frankie Ballard and David Nail remain just outside the Top 30 as Jon Pardi also struggles to make it into the Top 30. Canaan Smith, Justin Moore, and Kip Moore are also gaining fine but none of the three men will be able to have a new peak position this week.
* William Michael Morgan looks to match his #37 peak. I do think that "I Met A Girl" is nearing the end of the road as it's just has spent such a long time and still isn't making a lot of progress. Easton Corbin "Yup" will probably re-enter this week but I won't be surprised to see Easton leave just as soon as he came back. Dylan Scott continues to move up rather nicely and we look to have a photo finish for the last spot in the Top 40, Eric Paslay and Big & Rich look to have a very close finish. For Big & Rich they'd be in the Top 40 after 5 weeks.
* Chris Janson isn't moving a lot but is seeing nice little gains. Tim McGraw "Humble and Kind" looks to come crashing into the Top 50 as high as #43. Drake White, Lindsay Ell, Lauren Alaina, Craig Morgan, and Joe Nichols all see very little gains and none of them look to move up that much if at all. Love & Theft see arguably their strongest week and should move up a good bit.
* Charles Kelley is more on the upswing while Jennifer Nettles, Trace Adkins, and Steven Tyler all see good nice weeks and should each set new peaks. Thomas Rhett's new song T-Shirt looks to easily debut this week. Sam Hunt continues to stay below in the Top 50. Toby Keith and Ryan Kinder see decent movement but will be pushed back. I doubt either will last much longer.
* Finally the bottom of the chart looks rather empty as Chris Stapleton "Tennessee Whiskey" might spend it's final week if it can't re-bullet. Jordan Rager new song "Southern Boy" will easily enter as well. Finally due to the collapse of Josh Abbott Band and Justin Timberlake, Cold River recording artist Drew Baldridge will enter with his new song "Dance With Ya".
* In the coming weeks we will probably see LoCash "I Know Somebody", Brooke Eden "Daddy's Money", Cam "Mayday" and Eric Church "Record Year" enter the chart relatively soon.
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Post by Deleted on Feb 14, 2016 21:51:10 GMT -5
Billboard Top 60 Country Airplay (1.) Granger Smith Backroad Song (2.) Luke Bryan & Karen Fairchild Home Alone Tonight (3.) Kelsea Ballerini Dibs (4.) Carrie Underwood Heartbeat (5-6.) Thomas Rhett Die A Happy Man (last week?) (5-6.) Keith Urban Break On Me (7.) Randy Houser We Went (8.) Zac Brown Band Beautiful Drug (9.) Sam Hunt Breakup In A Small Town (last week) (10-11.) Cole Swindell You Should Be Here (10-11.) Florida Georgia Line Confession (12-13.) Brett Eldredge Drunk On Your Love (12-13.) Chase Bryant Little Bit Of You (last week?) (14.) Rascal Flatts I Like The Sound Of That (15.) Chris Stapleton Nobody To Blame (16.) Old Dominion Snapback (17.) Maren Morris My Church (18.) Lee Brice That Don't Sound Like You (19.) Dustin Lynch Mind Reader (20-21.) Michael Ray Real Men Love Jesus (20-21.) Chris Young & Cassadee Pope Think Of You (22.) Dierks Bentley Somewhere On A Beach (23.) Brantley Gilbert Stone Cold Sober (24-27.) Tim McGraw Humble and Kind (24-27.) Jon Pardi Head Over Boots (24-27.) Chris Lane Fix (24-27.) Maddie & Tae Shut Up & Fish (28.) David Nail Nights On Fire (29.) Frankie Ballard It All Started With A Beer (30-32.) Thomas Rhett T-Shirt (30-32.) Canaan Smith Hole In A Bottle (30-32.) Justin Moore You Look Like I Need A Drink (33.) Kip Moore Running For You (34.) William Michael Morgan I Met A Girl (last week) (35-36.) Dylan Scott Crazy Over Me (35-36.) Big & Rich Loving Lately (37.) Jennifer Nettles Unlove You (38.) Eric Paslay High Class (39-40.) Chris Janson Power Of Positive Drinking (39-40.) Drake White Living The Dream (41.) Dan + Shay From The Ground Up (42-43.) Lauren Alaina Next Boyfriend (42-43.) Love & Theft Whiskey On My Breath (last week?) (44-48.) Trace Adkins Jesus And Jones (44-48.) Sam Hunt Raised On It (44-48.) Eric Church Record Year (44-48.) Charles Kelley The Driver (44-48.) Jordan Rager Southern Boy (49-51.) Craig Morgan When I'm Gone (49-51.) Steven Tyler Red White & You (49-51.) Billy Currington It Don't Hurt Like It Used To (52.) Toby Keith Beautiful Stranger (53-54.) Cam Mayday (New!) (53-54.) Drew Baldridge Dance With Ya (Re-Entry) (55-56.) Chris Stapleton Tennessee Whiskey (55-56.) Brandy Clark Girl Next Door (New!) (57.) Kane Brown Used To Love You Sober (New!) (58.) LoCash I Know Somebody (Re-Entry) (59-60.) High Valley Make You Mine (New!) (59-60.) Justin Timberlake Drink You Away (Re-Enter)
New & Active Vince Gill Take Me Down Brooke Eden Daddy's Money Chase Rice Whisper Brett Young Sleep Without You Reba Just Like Them Horses Clare Dunn Tuxedo LANco Long Live Tonight
Going Recurrent or Leaving Brothers Osborne Stay A Little Longer Brad Paisley Country Nation Tyler Farr Better In Boots (85% chance of going recurrent) Eric Church Mr. Misunderstood Lindsay Ell By The Way (80% chance of going recurrent) Ryan Kinder Tonight Joe Nichols Freaks Like Me
Comments Holy cow it's a huge housecleaning this week as we will see 5-7 songs going recurrent or dropping out. Due to this we will see a but load of new entries. They're is a lot to get too so let's not waste anymore time.
Granger Smith has the edge to hit the top spot this week on BB as he has drastically closed the gap between him and Luke Bryan. I think despite the massive two week push Granger could hold on to the top spot for another week. Yes I know it's been a massive two week push and "Granger song wasn't that much of a hit". But their looks to be a large gap between Granger and Kelsea and it'll probably be a little bit before Kelsea Ballerini "Dibs" is at AirPlay peak levels so I don't see any harm in Granger spending another week at the top.
Speaking of Kelsea Ballerini sees more Top 5 conversions and still has a very great chance of hitting the top. Carrie Underwood still has the lead on Keith Urban and Randy Houser. I still think it's highly likely that Carrie Underwood "Heartbeat" will easily hit the very top spot. Keith Urban will be just outside the Top 5 this week as "Die A Happy Man" might be spending it's final week (spin clause more than likely next week). Randy Houser "We Went" is meanwhile looking to play catch up with Keith and Carrie Underwood but it looks like he's a little ways away. Zac Brown Band strangely slow down a little this week as Sam Hunt is spending his final week with "Breakup In A Small Town".
The race is on for the last spot in the Top 10 as Florida Georgia Line and Cole Swindell look to finish neck and neck for that last spot. Below them Brett Eldredge is looking to fend off a suddenly surging Chase Bryant (I feel like it could be a last week push). Rascal Flatts continues to see nice movement with "I Like The Sound Of That". Finally Chris Stapleton looks to pick up his first Top 15 hit as a singer with "Nobody To Blame".
Old Dominion "Snapback" and Maren Morris "My Church" see a slightly slower week but should pick up the pace relatively soon. Another uneventful week for Lee Brice who will probably be reaching the end here soon enough. Dustin Lynch seems to be picking up the pace as the last spot in the Top 20 looks to be a toss up between Chris Young & Cassadee Pope "Think Of You" and Michael Ray "Real Men Love Jesus" with me giving the slight edge to Michael.
Dierks Bentley should probably be in the Top 20 soon enough (Dierks announce that album please) as he sees another solid week. Brantley Gilbert meanwhile really struggles as his gains have been non existent this week. Tim McGraw looks to move very strongly into the Top 30 easily with his hot seller "Humble and Kind". Maddie & Tae, Jon Pardi and Chris Lane are moving a little slower but nonetheless seeing solid progress.
Note: If Tyler Farr is on Tuesday's chart he will probably fill the gap between David Nail and Chris, Maddie & Tae, and Jon. Tyler's chances however aren't good at all. So I'll leave him off as I expect him to go recurrent.
David Nail sees slow progress along with Frankie Ballard who looks to also enter the Top 30. The last spot in the Top 30 is between Canaan Smith, Thomas Rhett, and Justin Moore. I'm giving the edge to Thomas Rhett but expect the other two (Canaan and Justin more than likely) to enter soon enough. Kip Moore continues to slowly move as it is. William Michael Morgan might be spending his final week as he's lost a good chunk of audience (cough KKBQ is to blame). Dylan Scott and Big & Rich see slight movement up with Big & Rich possibly making the pass.
There will be 5 new or returning entries in the Top 40 as Jennifer Nettles should easily get in as she sees nice movement, Eric Paslay and Big & Rich should be back naturally. Chris Janson and Drake White should also despite Chris not moving much. Drake White meanwhile has a decent enough week. Dan + Shay sees their hangover and land just outside the Top 40. Lauren Alaina looks to close the gap between her and Love & Theft and could set a new peak of #42 (I have my doubts Lauren can make it much farther but a new peak does make me happy).
Note 2: If Lindsay Ell stays she will land in between Lauren and Love & Theft, in between them and Trace, Eric, and Charles. She's down about 100K in audience so she better help the spin increase saves her, if not Lindsay Ell is out.
Sam Hunt "Raised On It", Charles Kelley, Trace Adkins, Eric Church and Jordan Rager all look to be in a close finish this week. Hard to say who will land where. I think Charles has the edge but It's hard to say. Craig Morgan, Steven Tyler both look to struggle as Billy Currington has a nice start. Cam, Drew Baldridge, Brandy Clark, and Kane Brown should all easily enter this week with their new songs. Toby Keith meanwhile struggles to see much in gains.
The bottom of the chart is hard to predict as their isn't a lot of songs with much audience LoCash should re-enter. High Valley and Justin Timberlake tight now have support from one station to help them out, now I won't be surprised if Ryan Kinder doesn't completely fall out but I will play it safe and say he does.
We will see a lot more songs falling as we have a lot of songs in the next couple of months (probably leading all the way up to the ACM Awards) that will be announced and released. Should be fun!
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Deleted
Joined: January 1970
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Post by Deleted on Feb 21, 2016 19:58:12 GMT -5
Billboard Top 60 Country Airplay (1-2.) Kelsea Ballerini Dibs (1-2.) Granger Smith Backroad Song (3.) Carrie Underwood Heartbeat (4.) Luke Bryan & Karen Fairchild Home Alone Tonight (last week) (5.) Randy Houser We Went (6.) Keith Urban Break On Me (7-8.) Thomas Rhett Die A Happy Man (last week) (7-8.) Zac Brown Band Beautiful Drug (9.) Brett Eldredge Drunk On Your Love (10.) Cole Swindell You Should Be Here (11.) Florida Georgia Line Confession (12.) Chase Bryant Little Bit Of You (last week?) (13.) Rascal Flatts I Like The Sound Of That (14.) Chris Stapleton Nobody To Blame (15.) Old Dominion Snapback (16.) Maren Morris My Church (17.) Dustin Lynch Mind Reader (18.) Lee Brice That Don't Sound Like You (last week?) (19-20.) Dierks Bentley Somewhere On A Beach (19-20.) Chris Young & Cassadee Pope Think Of You (21.) Michael Ray Real Men Love Jesus (22-23.) Tim McGraw Humble and Kind (22-23.) Brantley Gilbert Stone Cold Sober (24.) Jon Pardi Head Over Boots (25.) Chris Lane Fix (26.) Maddie & Tae Shut Up & Fish (27-29.) Thomas Rhett T-Shirt (27-29.) Tyler Farr Better In Boots (27-29.) David Nail Nights On Fire (30-31.) Frankie Ballard It All Started With A Beer (30-31.) Canaan Smith Hole In A Bottle (32.) Justin Moore You Look Like I Need A Drink (33.) Kip Moore Running For You (34-36.) Big & Rich Loving Lately (34-36.) Jennifer Nettles Unlove You (34-36.) William Michael Morgan I Met A Girl (37-38.) Eric Paslay High Class (37-38.) Dan + Shay From The Ground Up (39.) Dylan Scott Crazy Over Me (40.) Chris Janson Power Of Positive Drinking (41-42.) Eric Church Record Year (41-42.) Drake White Living The Dream (43-45.) Jordan Rager & Jason Aldean Southern Boy (43-45.) Charles Kelley The Driver (43-45.) Lindsay Ell By The Way (Re-Enter!) (46-47.) Lauren Alaina Next Boyfriend (46-47.) Sam Hunt Raised On It (48.) Billy Currington It Don't Hurt Like It Used To (49-50.) Trace Adkins Jesus And Jones (49-50.) Craig Morgan When I'm Gone (last week) (51-53.) Cam Mayday (51-53.) Kane Brown Used To Love You Sober (51-53.) Toby Keith Beautiful Stranger (54.) Brandy Clark Girl Next Door (55-56.) Drew Baldridge Dance With Ya (55-56.) LoCash I Know Somebody (57-59.) Brothers Osborne 21 Summer (New!) (57-59.) Sam Hunt Make You Miss Me (New!) (57-59.) High Valley Make You Mine (New!) (60.) Vince Gill Take Me Down
New & Active Clare Dunn Tuxedo Chuck Wicks She's Gone Brooke Eden Daddy's Money Chase Rice Whisper Brett Young Sleep Without You Reba Just Like Them Horses Tara Thompson Someone To Take Your Place LANco Long Live Tonight
Going Recurrent or Leaving Sam Hunt Breakup In A Small Town Love & Theft Whiskey On My Breath Steven Tyler Red White & You Chris Stapleton Tennessee Whiskey
Comments We have another race to the top of the chart. Kelsea Ballerini "Dibs" appears to have the edge to top the chart, but it's going to be close between Granger and Kelsea. Both songs will be free falling next week, now I don't expect either one to go recurrent both will be falling hard next week.
Carrie Underwood "Heartbeat" has gained a lot more ground away from "We Went" and "Break On Me" and she's the one who seems most likely to top next weeks chart. Luke Bryan & Karen Fairchild "Home Alone Tonight" begins it's official descent down and could fall recurrent next week if Rascal Flatts catches up to them which is certainly doable.
Randy Houser "We Went" looks to round out the Top 5 as "Break On Me" #1s chances look to continue to fog up with "Heartbeat" and now "We Went" pulling away, so Keith will have his work cut out for him. Zac Brown Band "Beautiful Drug" should enter the Top 5 rather easily next week.
Brett Eldredge looks to move pass both Cole Swindell and Florida Georgia Line, as Brett sees a lot of Top 10 conversions. Cole Swindell has the edge to be in the Top 10 over FGL as the duo looks to spend another week just outside the Top 10. Finally it looks like Chase Bryant is nearing the end of the road as I think Red Bow did a two week push for the Top 10 but that only looks like it's going to happen on MB ("Little Bit Of You" is at #9 as we speak).
Rascal Flatts continues to move very strong and should be in the Top 10 soon enough. Chris Stapleton, Old Dominion, and Maren Morris continue to move through the teens as all of them see nice weeks. Dustin Lynch "Mind Reader" also sees nice movement. Lee Brice however continues to slowly crawl along and has Dierks Bentley "Somewhere On A Beach" coming in pretty fast and Chris & Cassadee aren't that far behind either. Michael Ray, looks to get pushed out of the Top 20 at least temporarily and I remain curious to see how much longer this one can go on for.
Tim McGraw looks to also be on the fast lane as he should pass Brantley Gilbert with relative ease as Brantley continues to move slowly and I also wonder how much longer the label will promote "Stone Cold Sober" as it's not moving a whole lot right now. Jon Pardi meanwhile looks to have really picked up the pace and should become Jon second Top 20 hit within a month from now as "Head Over Boots" is moving swiftly along. Chris Lane and Maddie & Tae see rather unspectacular weeks but both aren't even close to have me thinking they are in any sort of trouble. Thomas Rhett "T-Shirt" looks to easily come crashing into the Top 30 as Tyler Farr and David Nail continue to slowly move along. The last spot in the Top 30 looks to belong to Frankie Ballard despite Frankie Ballard basically crawling along right now.
Canaan Smith "Hole In A Bottle" will be just outside the Top 30 this week and should easily enter it next week. Justin Moore remains right behind Canaan as it appears he still hasn't quite made the pass right now, but I think Justin will eventually get to Canaan. Kip Moore looks to move up to #33 and has a good amount of distance from the songs directly below him so he is still looking rather well. Big & Rich and Jennifer Nettles look to pass Dylan Scott, Wiliam Michael Morgan and in Jennifers' case Eric Paslay, as the aforementioned three (Eric, William, and Dylan) have rather flat weeks. Chris Janson meanwhile will look to round out the top #40 for the second straight week.
Outside the Top 40, Dan + Shay and Eric Church are looking to cruise easily through. While there is a lot of other slower moving songs (Charles Kelley, Drake White, Lauren Alaina, and Trace Adkins). Jordan Rager & Jason Aldean see a solid week and could enter the Top 40 next week. Sam Hunt "Raised On It" continues to take up chart space as Billy Currington sees another solid week. Finally it looks like Black River has given up on "When I'm Gone" as it's losses has been pretty big this week and I doubt it recovers.
Right now I'm giving "By The Way" about an 85% chance of re-entering as Lindsay Ell has regained not only the audience lost this week but has gained a good amount from that total as well. So I'm more than confident she'll return.
Love & Theft have seen consistent audience losses this week so they should leave. Steven Tyler "Red White & You" has also seen some rather unfavorable updates and he might also leave I give Love & Theft about 15% chance of staying and Steven Tyler about 45% chance of staying so I removed both of them.
Anyway Cam and Kane Brown are off to really strong starts, while Brandy Clark, Drew Baldridge, and LoCash look to be moving a little slower. Toby Keith "Beautiful Stranger" continues to do basically nothing as I think he's reaching the end of the road. Brothers Osborne and Sam Hunt new ones look to both easily enter. High Valley is getting some early love as it should easily enter the chart. Finally look for Vince Gill to round out the Top 60.
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trebor
4x Platinum Member
Rock this quiet, little country town
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Post by trebor on Feb 22, 2016 10:40:36 GMT -5
Great work, effort and research! Much appreciated! :)
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Deleted
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Post by Deleted on Feb 28, 2016 20:21:26 GMT -5
Billboard Top 60 Country Airplay (1.) Keith Urban Break On Me (2.) Carrie Underwood Heartbeat (3.) Randy Houser We Went (4.) Zac Brown Band Beautiful Drug (5-6.) Brett Eldredge Drunk On Your Love (5-6.) Cole Swindell You Should Be Here (7.) Luke Bryan & Karen Fairchild Home Alone Tonight (last week) (8.) Granger Smith Backroad Song (last week) (9-10.) Chase Bryant Little Bit Of You (9-10.) Florida Georgia Line Confession (11.) Rascal Flatts I Like The Sound Of That (12.) Old Dominion Snapback (13.) Chris Stapleton Nobody To Blame (14.) Maren Morris My Church (15.) Dustin Lynch Mind Reader (16.) Lee Brice That Don't Sound Like You (17-18.) Chris Young & Cassadee Pope Think Of You (17-18.) Dierks Bentley Somewhere On A Beach (19-20.) Michael Ray Real Men Love Jesus (19-20.) Tim McGraw Humble and Kind (21.) Jon Pardi Head Over Boots (22.) Brantley Gilbert Stone Cold Sober (23-24.) Chris Lane Fix (23-24.) Maddie & Tae Shut Up & Fish (25.) Thomas Rhett T-Shirt (26-27.) David Nail Nights On Fire (26-27.) Tyler Farr Better In Boots (last week?) (28.) Frankie Ballard It All Started With A Beer (29-33.) Canaan Smith Hole In A Bottle (29-33.) Dan + Shay From The Ground Up (29-33.) Eric Church Record Year (29-33.) Justin Moore You Look Like I Need A Drink (29-33.) Kip Moore Running For You (34.) Eric Paslay High Class (35-37.) Big & Rich Loving Lately (35-37.) Dylan Scott Crazy Over Me (35-37.) Jennifer Nettles Unlove You (38.) Chris Janson Power Of Positive Drinking (39.) William Michael Morgan I Met A Girl (40-41.) Drake White Living The Dream (40-41.) Jordan Rager & Jason Aldean Southern Boy (42.) Sam Hunt Raised On It (43.) Cam Mayday (44.) Lauren Alaina Next Boyfriend (45.) Lindsay Ell By The Way (46.) Charles Kelley The Driver (47.) Billy Currington It Don't Hurt Like It Used To (48-49.) Trace Adkins Jesus And Jones (48-49.) Brandy Clark Girl Next Door (50.) Kane Brown Used To Love You Sober (51.) Brothers Osborne 21 Summer (52.) Toby Keith Beautiful Stranger (last week?) (53.) LoCash I Know Somebody (54.) Drew Baldridge Dance With Ya (55-56.) Brett Young Sleep Without You (55-56.) High Valley Make You Mine (New!) (57.) Brooke Eden Daddy's Money (New!) (58.) Sam Hunt Make You Miss Me (New!) (59.) Clare Dunn Tuxedo (60.) Vince Gill & Little Big Town Take Me Down
New & Active Chuck Wicks She's Gone Chase Rice Whisper Tucker Beathard Rock On Matt Gary It's On You Tara Thompson Someone To Take Your Place Martina McBride Reckless A Thousand Horses Southernality Reba McEntire Just Like Them Horses Granger Smith If The Boot Fits Randy Rodgers Band Neon Blues LANco Long Live Tonight
Going Recurrent or Leaving Thomas Rhett Die A Happy Man Peak: 1 Weeks: 23 Kelsea Ballerini Dibs Peak: 1 Weeks 32 Craig Morgan When I'm Gone Peak: 50 Weeks: 15
Comments Well after a couple of close finishes, it's kind of nice to have a clear cut picture at the top. Keith Urban "Break On Me",has surged hard to snatch the top spot on Billboard, he had previously missed out on the top spot with his last single "John Cougar, John Deere, John 3:16". Carrie Underwood "Heartbeat" looks to move up to #2 and Carrie still has more room to grow. Randy Houser meanwhile moves on up to #3 matching the peak of his previous single "Like A Cowboy". Zac Brown Band "Beautiful Drug" is going to surge into the Top 5 and should get a #1 out of the song when all is said and done. The top 5 will be rounded out by either Brett Eldredge or Cole Swindell, I'm going to give the slight edge to "Drunk On Your Love".
Luke & Karens "Home Alone Tonight", Granger Smith "Backroad Song, and Kelsea Ballerini "Dibs" will spend their final week on the charts and Kelsea Ballerini has a chance of leaving this week as she's lost a lot of audience and it could be close, I have her leaving.
Disclaimer: If Kelsea Ballerini leaves everyone in my predictions goes up a spot, and I'll give the edge for the final song entering to Vince Gill & Little Big Town.
Anyway, Florida Georgia Line look to be even further behind Cole Swindell and Brett Eldredge, which that doesn't bode well for their #1 chances, since they are going to be premiering a song come ACM time. Chase Bryant has surged into the Top 10 and when all is said and done will probably get a top 5 out of this song, (insert rolling my eyes). Rascal Flatts "I Like The Sound Of That" continues to remain a safe distance from the competition below the guys, and with a few recurrents up ahead (Kelsea, Luke, and Granger) "I Like The Sound Of That", should enter the Top 10 next week. Old Dominion looks to pass a slower moving Chris Stapleton. Rounding out the Top 15 will be newcomer Maren Morris with "My Church", she continues to cruise easily and does very well. Dustin Lynch "Mind Reader" is looking to move safely away from Lee Brice. "That Don't Sound Like You", meanwhile is moving up little by little, as the competition below it moves closer ("Somewhere On A Beach", "Think Of You"). Dierks Bentley and Chris & Cassadee Pope remain neck and neck with each other and I'm going to give the slight edge to Chris & Cassadee, as both however look to have Lee Brice in sight, both will probably pass Lee Brice in a couple of weeks. Michael Ray looks to re enter the Top 20, but Tim McGraw is hot on his tail both will enter the Top 20 however.
Jon Pardi "Head Over Boots" looks to have yet another solid week and should easily pass Brantley Gilbert. "Stone Cold Sober" continues to do not much. Maddie & Tae "Shut Up & Fish" and Chris Lane "Fix" are doing arguably worse as neither sees much movement at all, and Thomas Rhett's new one "T-Shirt" looks to close in fast on the both of them. Tyler Farr isn't doing too well either as he's essentially now just filling up chart space. David Nail is slowly moving along as well, with his song on Week 29, "Nights On Fire" probably won't last a whole lot longer. Frankie Ballard has a rather flat week and sees hardly any movement.
There is a race for the final two spots in the Top 30 between 5 artists (Justin Moore, Dan + Shay, Eric Church, Canaan Smith, and Kip Moore) out of all of them, Kip has the least likely chance of entering the Top 30 as he got more or less a lot of help from Westwood One this week. Justin Moore also doesn't have a great chance since his song isn't a fast mover ("From The Ground Up" "Record Year") or has extra countdown spins ( "Hole In A Bottle" debuted on American Country Countdown). So it's more or less a 3 song race for the last spot. I will give the edge to Canaan Smith for this one.
Eric Paslay "High Class" is looking to have a really solid week and could contend for a Top 20 peak when all is said and done. Big & Rich "Loving Lately" and Jennifer Nettles "Unlove You" look to be set back a bit as neither had a good week. Dylan Scott "Crazy Over Me" had a really solid week and continues to look like a sleeper hit. Not a lot of real movement from Chris Janson this week. William Michael Morgan also isn't moving too much and is probably nearing the end of the road.
Drake White "Living The Dream" and Jordan Rager & Jason Aldean "Southern Boy" will be battling for the last spot in the Top 40. As Sam Hunt "Raised On It" continues to see unsolicited radio AirPlay. The songs below him don't see much movement. Cam had an all right week, Lauren Alaina "Next Boyfriend" will manage to keep her bullet this week. But on the flip-side Lindsay Ell "By The Way" and Charles Kelley "The Driver" look to lose their bullets this week as neither see any real positive movement.
Brandy Clark "Girl Next Door" has a pretty good week, and should pass a struggling Trace Adkins. Billy Currington had a pretty decent week as it is as "It Don't Hurt It Like It Used To" is just starting its journey. Kane Brown, Brothers Osborne, and LoCash are all looking strong with each of their new songs. Drew Baldridge however isn't seeing much movement in audience this week. Brett Young "Sleep Without You", is looking to have loads of potential to be a huge hit. High Valley should easily enter this week charts, Brooke Eden "Daddy's Money" and Sam Hunt "Make You Miss Me" have the edge to enter the Top 60. Finally Clare Dunn "Tuxedo" will round out the Top 60 but she might lose her bullet as KKBQ really slashed her Airplay.
Below the Top 60 we have the latest songs from Vince Gill ("Take Me Down"), who is the fav to round out the chart, Tucker Beathard ("Rock On"), LANco (Long Live Tonight"), Tara Thompson ("Someone To Take Your Place"), Martina McBride ("Reckless",) Matt Gary ("It's On You",) Chase Rice ("Whisper",) A Thousand Horses ("Southernality"), Reba McEntire ("Just Like Them Horses"), Granger Smith ("If The Boot Fits"), Olivia Lane ("Make My Own Sunshine"), and Randy Rodgers Band ("Neon Blues",). A lot of these songs don't have a lot of audience but for the most part, they'll be getting ready to move into the Top 60 soon enough.
There is a lot of songs I see going recurrent in the next few weeks. Obviously Granger Smith, Luke Bryan, and Kelsea Ballerini will all be hone this time next week. Chase Bryant probably won't last a whole lot longer once he hits the Top 5, since I imagine he will free fall once that happens. Other songs like the latest from Charles Kelley, Lauren Alaina, William Michael Morgan, Toby Keith and Tyler Farr will probably not last a whole lot longer as none of them have moved a whole lot. Other songs from the likes of Canaan Smith, Michael Ray, David Nail, Lindsay Ell and Brantley Gilbert will need to get moving soon or else they'll probably be leaving, at the latest a month from now if none of those songs get moving. There could be a lot of songs ready to fall within the month March.
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CoJoFan
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Post by CoJoFan on Mar 7, 2016 16:33:37 GMT -5
Not really a prediction from me but with Kelsea Ballerini's "Dibs", Luke Bryan's "Home Alone Tonight", Granger Smith's "Backroad Song", and Thomas Rhett's "Die A Happy Man" all possibly leaving the chart tonight. We could possibly see 4 new top 10 songs this week, Chase Bryant's "Little Bit of You", Rascal Flatts "I Like The Sound of That", Florida Georgia Line's "Confession" and Old Dominion's "Snapback". If it does happen I don't even remember the last time we had 4 songs enter the top 10.
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Post by josephmorgan on Mar 7, 2016 20:10:22 GMT -5
Didn't happen as three new songs cracked the top ten. "Die A Happy Man" is the stubborn mule that won't leave the top ten (at #10 this week.)
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Deleted
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Post by Deleted on Mar 7, 2016 20:21:49 GMT -5
Looking ahead to next week. We actually have a few potential recurrent songs. I think "Die A Happy Man" will finally leave, but we also have a few other songs that will probably leave. Tyler Farr and Lauren Alaina has to re bullet next week or they are done as they lost their bullet this week, and I can also see Toby Keith giving up. So with four potential songs leaving that should help. For new entries Blake Shelton will for sure enter same thing with Luke Bryan. The last spot to two spots will probably be up between A Thousand Horses, Chase Rice, Kelsea Ballerini, Clare Dunn, and Tucker Beathard. Next week looks very interesting to say the very least.
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Deleted
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Post by Deleted on Mar 14, 2016 17:49:48 GMT -5
Billboard Top 60 Country Airplay (1.) Carrie Underwood Heartbeat (2.) Zac Brown Band Beautiful Drug (3.) Cole Swindell You Should Be Here (4.) Brett Eldredge Drunk On Your Love (5-6.) Florida Georgia Line Confession (5-6.) Randy Houser We Went (last week) (7.) Rascal Flatts I Like The Sound Of That (8.) Chase Bryant Little Bit Of You (last week) (9.) Old Dominion Snapback (10-11.) Chris Stapleton Nobody To Blame (10-11.) Maren Morris My Church (12-13.) Chris Young & Cassadee Pope Think Of You (12-13.) Dustin Lynch Mind Reader (14.) Lee Brice That Don't Sound Like You (15.) Dierks Bentley Somewhere On A Beach (16.) Tim McGraw Humble and Kind (17.) Blake Shelton Came Here To Forget (New!) (18.) Michael Ray Real Men Love Jesus (19.) Thomas Rhett T-Shirt (20-21.) Jon Pardi Head Over Boots (20-21.) Brantley Gilbert Stone Cold Sober (22.) Chris Lane Fix (23.) Maddie & Tae Shut Up & Fish (24-25.) Eric Church Record Year (24-25.) Frankie Ballard It All Started With A Beer (26.) David Nail Nights On Fire (last week?) (27.) Canaan Smith Hole In A Bottle (28-29.) Justin Moore You Look Like I Need A Drink (28-29.) Dan + Shay From The Ground Up (30.) Kip Moore Running For You (31-33.) William Michael Morgan I Met A Girl (31-33.) Luke Bryan Hunting, Fishing, and Loving (New!) (31-33.) Jake Owen American Country Love Song (34.) Big & Rich Loving Lately (35.) Eric Paslay High Class (36-38.) Chris Janson Power Of Positive Drinking (36-38.) Jennifer Nettles Unlove You (36-38.) Sam Hunt Make You Miss Me (39.) Dylan Scott Crazy Over Me (last week?) (40.) Jordan Rager & Jason Aldean Southern Boy (41.) Cam Mayday (42.) Drake White Living The Dream (43.) Brothers Osborne 21 Summer (44-45.) Sam Hunt Raised On It (44-45.) Kane Brown Used To Love You Sober (46.) Brandy Clark Girl Next Door (47.) Billy Currington It Don't Hurt Like It Used To (48.) LoCash I Know Somebody (49.) Trace Adkins Jesus And Jones (50.) Martina McBride Reckless (51.) Randy Houser Song Number 7 (New!) (52.) Charles Kelley The Driver (last week) (53.) Lindsay Ell By The Way (last week) (54.) High Valley Make You Mine (55-56.) Brooke Eden Daddy's Money (55-56.) Drew Baldridge Dance With Ya (57.) Tucker Beathard Rock On (New!) (58-59.) Brett Young Sleep Without You (58-59.) Clare Dunn Tuxedo (Re-Enter) (60.) A Thousand Horses Southernality (New!)
New & Active Chase Rice Whisper Granger Smith If The Boot Fits Matt Gary It's On You Kelsea Ballerini Peter Pan Vince Gill & Little Big Town Take Me Down David Ray Light It Up Chuck Wicks She's Gone Tara Thompson Someone To Take Your Place Josh Abbott Band & Carly Pearce Wasn't That Drunk Jana Kramer Said No One Ever LANco Long Live Tonight Olivia Lane Make My Own Sunshine Randy Rodgers Band Neon Blues Reba McEntire Just Like Them Horses
Going Recurrent or Leaving or Dropping Out Thomas Rhett Die A Happy Man Peak: 1 Weeks: 24 Keith Urban Break On Me Peak: 1 Weeks: 20 Tyler Farr Better In Boots Peak 26 Weeks: 28 Lauren Alaina Next Boyfriend Peak: 46 Weeks: 22 Toby Keith Beautiful Stranger Peak: 52 Weeks 14 Granger Smith If The Boot Fits Peak: 59 Weeks 1 (will return later)
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Deleted
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Post by Deleted on Mar 27, 2016 20:13:47 GMT -5
Billboard Top 60 Country Airplay(1-2.) Brett Eldredge Drunk On Your Love (1-2.) Cole Swindell You Should Be Here (3.) Rascal Flatts I Like The Sound Of That (4.) Florida Georgia Line Confession (5.) Chase Bryant Little Bit Of You (6.) Old Dominion Snapback (7.) Chris Young & Cassadee Pope Think Of You (8.) Carrie Underwood Heartbeat (last week) (9.) Zac Brown Band Beautiful Drug (last week)(10-11.) Dustin Lynch Mind Reader (10-11.) Dierks Bentley Somewhere On A Beach (12-13.) Maren Morris My Church (12-13.) Chris Stapleton Nobody To Blame (14-15.) Blake Shelton Came Here To Forget (14-15.) Tim McGraw Humble and Kind (16.) Lee Brice That Don't Sound Like You (17.) Thomas Rhett T-Shirt (18.) Luke Bryan Hunting, Fishing, and Loving (19.) Jon Pardi Head Over Boots (20.) Kenny Chesney Noise (New!)(21.) Brantley Gilbert Stone Cold Sober (last week?) (22.) Chris Lane Fix (23.) Eric Church Record Year (24.) Frankie Ballard It All Started With A Beer (25-27.) Justin Moore You Look Like I Need A Drink (25-27..) David Nail Nights On Fire (25-27.) Jake Owen American Country Love Song (28-29.) Canaan Smith Hole In A Bottle (28-29.) Dan + Shay From The Ground Up (30.) Kip Moore Running For You (31-34.) Sam Hunt Make You Miss Me (31-34.) William Michael Morgan I Met A Girl (31-34.) Eric Paslay High Class (31-34.) Big & Rich Loving Lately (35-37.) Chris Janson Power Of Positive Drinking (35-37.) Jennifer Nettles Unlove You (35-37.) Drake White Living The Dream (38-39.) Cam Mayday (38-39.) Jordan Rager & Jason Aldean Southern Boy (40-41.) Kane Brown Used To Love You Sober (40-41.) Sam Hunt Raised On It (42-44.) Brothers Osborne 21 Summer (42-44.) Brandy Clark Girl Next Door (42-44.) Lauren Alaina Next Boyfriend (Re-Entry!) 75% chance of re-entry (45-46.) Billy Currington It Don't Hurt Like It Used To (45-46.) LoCash I Know Somebody (47.) Trace Adkins Jesus And Jones (48.) Martina McBride Reckless (49-52.) Kelsea Ballerini Peter Pan (49-52.) High Valley Make You Mine (49-52.) Granger Smith If The Boot Fits (49-52.) Tucker Beathard Rock On (53.) Brooke Eden Daddy's Money (54-55.) Drew Baldridge Dance With Ya (54-55.) Randy Houser Song Number 7 (56-57.) Brett Young Sleep Without You (56-57.) A Thousand Horses Southernality (58-59.) Clare Dunn Tuxedo (Re-Entry!) (58-59.) Chase Rice Whisper (New!) (60.) Breaking Southwest Ghost Town Bubbling UnderOld Dominion Beer Can In A Truck Bed Bobby Bones & The Raging Idiots Fishing With Dad Jana Kramer Said No One Ever Craig Campbell Outskirts Of Heaven Matt Gary It's On You Tara Thompson Someone To Take Your Place Olivia Lane Make My Own Sunshine Josh Abbott Band & Carly Pearce Wasn't That Drunk David Ray Light It Up Zac Brown Band Castaway Charles Kelley Lonely Girl Chuck Wicks She's Gone LANco Long Live Tonight Carrie Underwood Church Bells Randy Rodgers Band Neon Blues Going Recurrent or Leaving or Dropping Out Michael Ray Real Men Love Jesus Maddie & Tae Shut Up & Fish Dylan Scott Crazy Over Me Lindsay Ell By The Way
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Deleted
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Post by Deleted on Apr 3, 2016 16:53:45 GMT -5
Billboard Top 60 Country Airplay (1.) Cole Swindell You Should Be Here (2.) Rascal Flatts I Like The Sound Of That (3.) Florida Georgia Line Confession (4-5.) Brett Eldredge Drunk On Your Love (4-5.) Chase Bryant Little Bit Of You (last week?) (6.) Old Dominion Snapback (7.) Chris Young & Cassadee Pope Think Of You (8.) Dierks Bentley Somewhere On A Beach (9.) Dustin Lynch Mind Reader (10.) Tim McGraw Humble and Kind (11-14.) Lee Brice That Don't Sound Like You (11-14.) Blake Shelton Came Here To Forget (11-14.) Chris Stapleton Nobody To Blame (last week?) (70% chance of going recurrent) (11-14.) Maren Morris My Church (15-16.) Thomas Rhett T-Shirt (15-16.) Luke Bryan Hunting, Fishing, and Loving Every Day (17.) Jon Pardi Head Over Boots (18.) Kenny Chesney Noise (19.) Brantley Gilbert Stone Cold Sober (last week?) (20-22.) Keith Urban Wasted Time (New!) (20-22.) Eric Church Record Year (20-22.) Chris Lane Fix (23-24.) Frankie Ballard It All Started With A Beer (23-24.) Jake Owen American Country Love Song (25-29.) Dan + Shay From The Ground Up (25-29.) Justin Moore You Look Like I Need A Drink (25-29.) David Nail Nights On Fire (last week?) (25-29.) Canaan Smith Hole In A Bottle (25-29.) Jason Aldean Lights Come On (New!) (30.) Kip Moore Running For You (31.) Sam Hunt Make You Miss Me (32-33.) Eric Paslay High Class (32-33.) William Michael Morgan I Met A Girl (34.) Big & Rich Loving Lately (35.) Jennifer Nettles Unlove You (36.) Drake White Living The Dream (37.) Jordan Rager & Jason Aldean Southern Boy (38-39.) Kane Brown Used To Love You Sober (38-39.) Cam Mayday (40-41.) Billy Currington It Don't Hurt Like It Used To (40-41.) Brothers Osborne 21 Summer (42.) Sam Hunt Raised On It (43-44.) Kelsea Ballerini Peter Pan (43-44.) Brandy Clark Girl Next Door (45.) LoCash I Know Somebody (46-48.) Tucker Beathard Rock On (46-48.) Trace Adkins Jesus And Jones (46-48.) High Valley Make You Mine (49.) Carrie Underwood Church Bells (New!) (50-51.) Granger Smith If The Boot Fits (50-51.) Zac Brown Band Castaway (New!) (52-55.) Brooke Eden Daddy's Money (52-55.) Brett Young Sleep Without You (52-55.) Drew Baldridge Dance With Ya (52-55.) Randy Houser Song Number 7 (56-58.) Chase Rice Whisper (56-58.) Clare Dunn Tuxedo (56-58.) A Thousand Horses Southernality (59-61.) Breaking Southwest Ghost Town (Possible Re-Entry!) (59-61.) Josh Abbott Band & Carly Pearce Wasn't That Drunk (Possibly New!) (59-61.) Jana Kramer Said No One Ever (Possibly New!)
Bubbling Under Old Dominion Beer Can In A Truck Bed Olivia Lane Make My Own Sunshine Craig Campbell Outskirts Of Heaven Tara Thompson Someone To Take Your Place Matt Gary It's On You David Ray Light It Up Charles Kelley Lonely Girl LANco Long Live Tonight Chris Janson Holding Her Randy Rodgers Band Neon Blues
Going Recurrent or Leaving or Dropping Out Zac Brown Band Beautiful Drug Carrie Underwood Heartbeat Chris Janson Power Of Positive Drinking Lauren Alaina Next Boyfriend (85% chance of going recurrent) Martina McBride Reckless (80% chance of going recurrent) Bobby Bones & The Raging Idiots Fishing With My Dad
Comments: Holy housecleaning!! That's my first thought I came up with when I realized what the chart is probably going to look like this week. Carrie Underwood, Bobby Bones, and Chris Janson are all for sure leaving and I'm about 99 percent sure Zac Brown Band is leaving. Then you have Lauren Alaina and Martina McBride both struggling to keep their audience and I'm confident they'll be pulled as well. Chris Stapleton is also on the bubble but I think he will get a grace week. With all those songs leaving we still have a lot of songs that are looking rather weak (Little Bit Of You, That Don't Sound Like You, the aforementioned Nobody To Blame, Stone Cold Sober, arguably Fix, Nights On Fire, I Met A Girl) and songs that will be falling in the next couple of weeks (Drunk On Your Love which is already falling, I Like The Sound Of That, and Confession). So there is a lot of songs that'll probably be leaving within the next month. Hopefully that helps with the rather touch release schedule happening (Kenny, Blake, Keith, Jason, Carrie, ZBB and FGL all having new songs or about too which isn't helping much for anybody that isn't them).
Anyways Cole Swindell is going to get his second week in a row at the top with his mega hit "You Should Be Here", I'm still fully expecting Cole Swindell to pull in one last week at the top before giving the top spot up to either Rascal Flatts or Florida Georgia Line. Speaking of Rascal Flatts look for them to set a new peak of #2, it remains to be determined if they can have "I Like The Sound Of That" as a #1 as they may have to settle for a MB only #1. FGL is also not looking that good as the clock continues to tick on when they'll release their new song "Holy" (that's the title apparently) and give up on "Confession". The good news is that the nearest competition Old Dominion looks to be about 6 million behind FGL. Brett Eldredge will probably get at least one more week as while he is falling, he's not falling very fast. Finally look for Chase Bryant to peak at #5 with an outside chance of peaking at #4. I'm expecting "Little Bit Of You" to have a "Fly" or "Girl Crush" like fall. So I am fairly certain this will be the last week.
Old Dominion, Chris/Cassadee, Dierks Bentley, and Dustin Lynch all continue to see Top 10 conversions. I'm definitely curious to see if all 4 of them will each hit the top. Each will be plenty far enough from each other, if there is one weak link in that lineup of 4 is Dustin Lynch. But I'm definitely curious to see if each will hit #1. Tim McGraw will probably claim the last Top 10 spot as he has some real competition brewing below (Blake Shelton and Luke Bryan).
Lee Brice sees another solid week but I'm still not sure how much longer this song will last as its really racked up the weeks, Blake Shelton is seeing more fast paced progress and will probably hit the Top 10 next week. Elsewhere Maren Morris and especially Chris Stapleton really struggle, if I was Chris Stapleton I'd drop "Nobody To Blame" and either release the title track or "Tennessee Whiskey" as the next single. Thomas Rhett has the edge to enter the Top 15 with Luke Bryan being just below him. Jon Pardi meanwhile is pretty far behind the others but is still doing relatively solid, Kenny Chesney however is bound to pass him by this time next week. Brantley Gilbert meanwhile really struggles to stay on the chart, he'll get a grace week but he's going to be leaving probably by the end of the month.
It's a three person race for the last Top 20 spot as Keith Urban has a good chance of debuting inside the Top 20 for his first week but Eric Church and newcomer Chris Lane can't be ruled out either. Jake Owen and Frankie Ballard see really strong movement. Dan + Shay has the edge to hit the Top 25 but they're in a real close race with Canaan Smith, David Nail (his song is in general looking rather weak, Justin Moore, and Jason Aldean and none of their songs can be ruled out. Kip Moore should round out the Top 30 as they're isn't much competition below him.
Sam Hunt "Make You Miss Me" is looking good right now and should probably enter the Top 30 next week. Eric Paslay sees a little surge compared to the rather slow movers of William Michael Morgan and Big & Rich. Jennifer Nettles sees her best week yet but the double shot of releases will prevent her from setting a new peak. Drake White continues his rather slow movement but is putting more distance from him and Jordan Rager/Cam/Kane Brown. None of the mentioned artists had a pretty good week, but all 3 still have plenty of potential. Brothers Osborne has had a really great week, and Billy Currington has also had really solid weeks and one should be able to enter the Top 40.
Brandy Clark, LoCash, and Trace Adkins continue to see very little movement. Kelsea Ballerini continues her fast start and should have a +9 movement. Other artists like Tucker Beathard and High Valley also see great progress.
Carrie Underwood is set for a very nice debut this week, and Zac Brown Band should also pick a nice debut. Granger Smith doesn't see much progress and the same can be said for other songs sitting around in the 50s, (Brooke Eden, Drew Baldridge, Chase Rice, Clare Dunn, A Thousand Horses) some of these have the potential to be hit (Granger Smith, Brooke Eden) but others appear to be doomed (Clare Dunn, Chase Rice, A Thousand Horses). Potential/Probably On The Verge artist Brett Young continues to see slightly more and more radio interest as he gears up for his add date. While Randy Houser sees some decent movement Breaking Southwest will probably re-enter with Josh Abbott Band & Carly Pearce rounding out the Top 60 probably. It looks like Jana Kramer is probably going to spend another week just outside the Top 60 but it should be close for her to possibly debut so I won't completely rule it out. Breaking Southwest, Jana Kramer and Josh Abbott/Carly Pearce look to finish all really close together.
The latest from Olivia Lane and Tara Thompson look to be on the outside looking in neither of the ladies seem like they can sneak in, also looks like the album track by Old Dominion will be just outside as well. Craig Campbell continues to have a so far good reception from radio since his add date isn't for a little bit.
With the amount of songs looking relatively weak on the charts, the chart is looking to have many songs begin free-falling this month and there are a lot looking weak.
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CoJoFan
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Post by CoJoFan on Apr 4, 2016 16:22:29 GMT -5
Where is "Raised On It" by Sam Hunt and "Beer Can In A Truck Bed" by Old Dominion getting airplay from? I'm guessing probably iHeart or satellite radio's The Highway? I don't recall either being announced as singles. Although the Old Dominion song would be an excellent choice for a single.
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Deleted
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Post by Deleted on Apr 4, 2016 16:29:17 GMT -5
Where is "Raised On It" by Sam Hunt and "Beer Can In A Truck Bed" by Old Dominion getting airplay from? I'm guessing probably iHeart or satellite radio's The Highway? I don't recall either being announced as singles. Although the Old Dominion song would be an excellent choice for a single. "Raised On It" has about 20 stations overall. "Beer Can In A Truck Bed" has a couple of stations. For Old Dominion it's probably going to be their next single, for Sam Hunt it's simply an alternative for radio to play/ what radio wanted the followup to be to "Breakup In A Smalltown" and some radios still stubbornly play "Raised On It".
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sabre14
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Post by sabre14 on Apr 4, 2016 16:31:45 GMT -5
Where is "Raised On It" by Sam Hunt and "Beer Can In A Truck Bed" by Old Dominion getting airplay from? I'm guessing probably iHeart or satellite radio's The Highway? I don't recall either being announced as singles. Although the Old Dominion song would be an excellent choice for a single. "Raised On It" is getting played on 23 stations on the MB panel. Also The Highway, which is not monitored by MB or Billboard's main chart. "Beer Can In A Truck Bed" is being played on KEEY in Munneapolis.
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Deleted
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Post by Deleted on Apr 11, 2016 5:19:27 GMT -5
Billboard Top 60 Country Airplay (1-2.) Rascal Flatts I Like The Sound Of That (1-2.) Cole Swindell You Should Be Here (3-4.) Chase Bryant Little Bit Of You (last week?) (3-4.) Florida Georgia Line Confession (5-7.) Chris Young & Cassadee Pope Think Of You (5-7.) Old Dominion Snapback (5-7.) Dierks Bentley Somewhere On A Beach (8-9.) Brett Eldredge Drunk On Your Love (last week) (8-9.) Dustin Lynch Mind Reader (10-11.) Lee Brice That Don't Sound Like You (last week!) (10-11.) Tim McGraw Humble and Kind (12.) Blake Shelton Came Here To Forget (13-14.) Maren Morris My Church (13-14.) Luke Bryan Hunting, Fishing, and Loving Every Day (15.) Thomas Rhett T-Shirt (16.) Kenny Chesney Noise (17.) Jon Pardi Head Over Boots (18.) Brantley Gilbert Stone Cold Sober (last week?) (19-20.) Chris Lane Fix (19-20.) Eric Church Record Year (21.) Keith Urban Wasted Time (22.) Frankie Ballard It All Started With A Beer (23-27.) David Nail Nights On Fire (23-27.) Jake Owen American Country Love Song (23-27.) Justin Moore You Look Like I Need A Drink (23-27.) Canaan Smith Hole In A Bottle (23-27.) Dan + Shay From The Ground Up (28.) Jason Aldean Lights Come On (29-30.) Kip Moore Running For You (29-30.) Tucker Beathard Rock On (31.) William Michael Morgan I Met A Girl (32-33.) Eric Paslay High Class (32-33.) Sam Hunt Make You Miss Me (34-35.) Big & Rich Loving Lately (34-35.) Carrie Underwood Church Bells (36.) Jennifer Nettles Unlove You (37.) Drake White Living The Dream (38.) Kelsea Ballerini Peter Pan (39-41.) Kane Brown Used To Love You Sober (39-41.) Cam Mayday (39-41.) Jordan Rager & Jason Aldean Southern Boy (42.) Billy Currington It Don't Hurt Like It Used To (43.) Brandy Clark Girl Next Door (44-45.) Brothers Osborne 21 Summer (44-45.) Sam Hunt Raised On It (46.) Trace Adkins Jesus And Jones (47.) LoCash I Know Somebody (48.) High Valley Make You Mine (48-49.) Granger Smith If The Boot Fits (50.) Randy Houser Song Number 7 (51.) Zac Brown Band Castaway (52-53.) Brooke Eden Daddy's Money (52-53.) Drew Baldridge Dance With Ya (54.) Brett Young Sleep Without You (55.) Clare Dunn Tuxedo (56-57.) Chase Rice Whisper (56-57.) A Thousand Horses Southernality (58-59.) Charles Kelley Lonely Girl (New!) (58-59.) Craig Campbell Outskirts Of Heaven (60-62.) Josh Abbott Band & Carly Pearce Wasn't That Drunk (60-62.) Jana Kramer Said No One Ever (Possible Entry!) (60-62.) Old Dominion Beer Can In A Truck Bed (Possible Entry!)
Bubbling Under Olivia Lane Make My Own Sunshine Tara Thompson Someone To Take Your Place Matt Gary It's On You David Ray Light It Up LANco Long Live Tonight Aaron Watson Bluebonnets Randy Rodgers Band Neon Blues Chris Janson Holding Her
Going Recurrent or Leaving or Dropping Out Chris Stapleton Nobody To Blame Breaking Southwest Ghost Town
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Deleted
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Post by Deleted on Apr 17, 2016 20:47:21 GMT -5
Billboard Top 60 Country Airplay (1.) Rascal Flatts I Like The Sound Of That (2.) Florida Georgia Line Confession (3.) Dierks Bentley Somewhere On A Beach (4.) Chris Young & Cassadee Pope Think Of You (5.) Old Dominion Snapback (6.) Cole Swindell You Should Be Here (7-8.) Dustin Lynch Mind Reader (7-8.) Chase Bryant Little Bit Of You (last week) (9.) Tim McGraw Humble and Kind (10.) Blake Shelton Came Here To Forget (11-12.) Luke Bryan Hunting, Fishing, and Loving Every Day (11-12.) Lee Brice That Don't Sound Like You (last week?) (13.) Maren Morris My Church (14.) Thomas Rhett T-Shirt (15.) Kenny Chesney Noise (16.) Jon Pardi Head Over Boots (17.) Keith Urban Wasted Time (18.) Brantley Gilbert Stone Cold Sober (last week?) (19-20.) Chris Lane Fix (19-20.) Eric Church Record Year (21.) Jason Aldean Lights Come On (22-23.) Jake Owen American Country Love Song (22-23.) Frankie Ballard It All Started With A Beer (24.) David Nail Nights On Fire (25-26.) Justin Moore You Look Like I Need A Drink (25-26.) Canaan Smith Hole In A Bottle (27-28.) Dan + Shay From The Ground Up (27-28.) Kip Moore Running For You (29-30.) Carrie Underwood Church Bells (29-30.) Tucker Beathard Rock On (31-32.) William Michael Morgan I Met A Girl (31-32.) Sam Hunt Make You Miss Me (33.) Big & Rich Loving Lately (34.) Eric Paslay High Class (last week) (85% chance of leaving) (35-36.) Drake White Living The Dream (35-36.) Jennifer Nettles Unlove You (37.) Kelsea Ballerini Peter Pan (38.) Kane Brown Used To Love You Sober (39-40.) Cam Mayday (39-40.) Jordan Rager & Jason Aldean Southern Boy (41.) Billy Currington It Don't Hurt Like It Used To (42.) Brandy Clark Girl Next Door (43.) Trace Adkins Jesus And Jones (44.) Brothers Osborne 21 Summer (45.) Sam Hunt Raised On It (46-47.) Granger Smith If The Boot Fits (46-47.) High Valley Make You Mine (48-50.) Zac Brown Band Castaway (48-50.) Randy Houser Song Number 7 (48-50.) Brett Young Sleep Without You (51.) Drew Baldridge Dance With Ya (52-53.) Brooke Eden Daddy's Money (52-53.) Breaking Southwest Ghost Town (54.) Craig Campbell Outskirts Of Heaven (New!) (55.) Clare Dunn Tuxedo (56.) A Thousand Horses Southernality (57.) Old Dominion Beer Can In A Truck Bed (58-59.) Jana Kramer Said No One Ever (58-59.) Charles Kelley Lonely Girl (New!) (60.) Josh Abbott Band & Carly Pearce Wasn't That Drunk
Bubbling Under Tara Thompson Someone To Take Your Place Olivia Lane Make My Own Sunshine Matt Gary It's On You David Ray Light It Up Michael Ray Think A Little Less Parmalee Roots Easton Corbin Are You With Me LANco Long Live Tonight Randy Rodgers Band Neon Blues Aaron Watson Bluebonnets Trailer Choir Ice Hot Summer
Going Recurrent or Leaving or Dropping Out Brett Eldredge Drunk On Your Love Chase Rice Whisper
Comments The chart this week is rather stagnant. It doesn't look like there will be a lot of recurrent songs this week. Brett Eldredge for sure will leave and it appears that Chase Rice is in free-fall mode. But besides that there isn't a lot maybe Eric Paslay gives up but that's it for possible songs leaving.
Rascal Flatts will pick up their first #1 on BB since "Banjo" in mid-2012. I honestly never thought this song was going to be a #1, sure it was radio friendly but given at the time of release and Rascal Flatts lack of momentum I never saw this as a #1 song. Anyway congratulations definitely go out to Rascal Flatts, along with a couple of recognizable cowriters, (Meghan Trainor and Shay Mooney). Now behind them Florida Georgia Line "Confession" moves up another notch setting a new peak of #2. The path is certainly clear for them to get a week at the top next week as Rascal Flatts will be falling and the gap is way too big for the others to catch up. Dierks Bentley "Somewhere On A Beach" is expected to have a big 7-3 move into the Top 3, and Dierks actually has a decent amount of distance from him and Chris/Cassadee & Old Dominion. I actually wouldn't be shocked if Dierks somehow managed to turn "Somewhere On A Beach" into a multi week #1 possibly blocking the two Sony artists. Cole Swindell and Chase Bryant both are falling in the Top 10 with both expected to be out soon enough. Dustin Lynch and Tim McGraw continue to get more Top 10 conversions and I'm now wondering if Tim McGraw has enough in his tank to possibly block Dustin Lynch.
Blake Shelton looks to enter the Top 10 as he surges pass Lee Brice. Luke Bryan also looks likely to pass Lee Brice. Lee himself is really struggling as he looks to be bleeding audience and hopefully Curb gets the hint and gives up soon enough. Maren Morris is back on the upswing but she has fast competition from Thomas Rhett and fellow Sony artist Kenny Chesney. At this point I'm taking things for Maren Morris "My Church" on a day by day basis as two days of bad updates will likely indicate she is done.
Thomas Rhett "T-Shirt" slows it up a little bit as Kenny Chesney's "Noise" looks to be moving relatively quickly through the Top 20 while Jon Pardi, Chris Lane, and surprisingly Eric Church move a little slower Eric and Jon doing relatively well while Chris continues to move slowly. Keith Urban should easily burst into the Top 20 with his new song "Wasted Time" in Keith's third week. He also should this time next week should be able to pass Jon Pardi.
One song that isn't looking good whatsoever is "Stone Cold Sober" by Brantley Gilbert, it's essentially on life support right now and is one of the songs that I wouldn't be surprised if it left any week now. Brantley Gilbert has been stuck in the 13-14 million in audience for a couple months now and it's quite clear the song won't move any higher.
Outside the Top 20 we have the fast pace Jason Aldean breezing through the competition, with Jake Owen also moves at a well kept pace. For other songs in the 20s the go is much more harder as Frankie Ballard slows down tremendously while other singers like Canaan Smith and David Nail slowly continue their marathon chart run. Also what's catching me off guard is how slow Justin Moore and Dan + Shay are going with their latest songs. Although with Justin Moore outside of Tucker Beathard, (which he technically has an excuse as he's right now getting On The Verge treatment) is the worst selling song in the Top 30 with David Nail and Canaan Smith also not selling all that well (their in the 200s all genre). Kip Moore looks to be picking back up the pace and might temporarily be ahead of Dan + Shay again. Finally Carrie Underwood new song "Church Bells" should blast into the Top 30 probably also passing Tucker Beathard.
In the 30s we have songs that aren't really moving all that much, Sam Hunt is slowing down to a crawl while Big & Rich and Jennifer Nettles also don't see much movement. Eric Paslay is in real danger of being sent recurrent as "High Class" appears to be on its last legs. William Michael Morgan is slightly on the upswing as he slightly does better. Now if there's one song that's managing too do pretty well that would be "Living The Dream" by Drake White as Drake should be able to re-pass Jennifer Nettles and see a nice audience boost tomorrow. Below Drake we have Kelsea Ballerini who is slowing down with "Peter Pan" while Kane Brown, Jordan Rager and Cam continue to hang in there and wait for a housecleaning to happen.
Billy Currington and Brandy Clark continue to wait for an opening into the Top 40 but it doesn't look likely they'll get it this week. Brothers Osborne move slowly as well waiting for an opening, where as Trace Adkins sees one of, if not his best week yet. Granger Smith and High Valley remain neck and neck with each other. Zac Brown Band and Brett Young should easily enter the Top 50 as both artists see some nice movement. Randy Houser meanwhile is slowly pushing along.
The continuation of songs hanging out in the 50s continue as Brooke Eden, Drew Baldridge, Clare Dunn and A Thousand Horses see very little movement. Breaking Southwest however appears to be moving on up a little bit. Old Dominion album track should stay as Jana Kramer and Josh Abbot Band/Carly Pearce don't see a lot of movement. Craig Campbell should easily debut tomorrow probably at #54 as it's off to a nice start as radio is taking a nice reception to the song. Charles Kelley should also be able to chart as "Lonely Girl" is doing pretty well right now.
I'm hoping within the next month we start to get rid of some songs that just aren't moving that much ("That Don't Sound Like You", "Stone Cold Sober", "Nights On Fire" maybe "Hole In A Bottle", "High Class" and maybe "I Met A Girl") all these songs have spent more than enough time on the chart and it's quite clear none of them will be hits. Hopefully they all leave in the coming weeks, along with songs expected to fall by then or are falling now ("Little Bit Of You", "You Should Be Here", "Confession", "I Like The Sound Of That"). The charts need a housecleaning and the sooner the better.
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onebuffalo
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Post by onebuffalo on Apr 18, 2016 8:18:25 GMT -5
Let me say it again, but thank you for these predictions. A must read before the chart comes out.
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Deleted
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Post by Deleted on Apr 24, 2016 21:03:57 GMT -5
Billboard Top 60 Country Airplay (1.) Florida Georgia Line Confession (2.) Dierks Bentley Somewhere On A Beach (3.) Chris Young & Cassadee Pope Think Of You (4.) Old Dominion Snapback (5-6.) Rascal Flatts I Like The Sound Of That (last week) (5-6.) Dustin Lynch Mind Reader (7.) Tim McGraw Humble and Kind (8-9.) Blake Shelton Came Here To Forget (8-9.) Cole Swindell You Should Be Here (last week) (10.) Luke Bryan Hunting, Fishing, and Loving Every Day (11.) Thomas Rhett T-Shirt (12-13.) Lee Brice That Don't Sound Like You (last week?) (12-13.) Maren Morris My Church (14.) Kenny Chesney Noise (15-16.) Jon Pardi Head Over Boots (15-16.) Keith Urban Wasted Time (17-18.) Eric Church Record Year 15.429 (17-18.) Jason Aldean Lights Come On (19.) Chris Lane Fix (20.) Jake Owen American Country Love Song (21.) Frankie Ballard It All Started With A Beer (22-23.) David Nail Nights On Fire (22-23.) Carrie Underwood Church Bells (24.) Justin Moore You Look Like I Need A Drink (25-27.) Canaan Smith Hole In A Bottle (25-27.) Dan + Shay From The Ground Up (25-27.) Kip Moore Running For You (28.) Tucker Beathard Rock On (29.) Sam Hunt Make You Miss Me (30.) William Michael Morgan I Met A Girl (31.) Big & Rich Loving Lately (32-34.) Jennifer Nettles Unlove You (32-34.) Kelsea Ballerini Peter Pan (32-34.) Drake White Living The Dream (35.) Billy Currington It Don't Hurt Like It Used To (36.) Kane Brown Used To Love You Sober (37.) Cam Mayday (38.) Jordan Rager & Jason Aldean Southern Boy (39.) Zac Brown Band Castaway (40.) LoCash I Know Somebody (41.) Brandy Clark Girl Next Door (42-43.) High Valley Make You Mine (42-43.) Brothers Osborne 21 Summer (44-45.) Sam Hunt Raised On It (44-45.) Trace Adkins Jesus And Jones (46-47.) Granger Smith If The Boot Fits (46-47.) Brett Young Sleep Without You (48-50.) Randy Houser Song Number 7 (48-50.) Martina McBride Reckless (48-50.) Drew Baldridge Dance With Ya (51.) Brooke Eden Daddy's Money (52-53.) Craig Campbell Outskirts Of Heaven (52-53.) Clare Dunn Tuxedo (54-56.) Breaking Southwest Ghost Town (54-56.) Charles Kelley Lonely Girl (54-56.) Michael Ray Think A Little Less (New!) (57-58.) A Thousand Horses Southernality (57-58.) Old Dominion Beer Can In A Truck Bed (59.) Jana Kramer Said No One Ever (Re-Entry!) (60.) Josh Abbott Band & Carly Pearce Wasn't That Drunk (Re-Entry!)
Bubbling Under Tara Thompson Someone To Take Your Place Olivia Lane Make My Own Sunshine Matt Gary It's On You David Ray Light It Up Parmalee Roots Chris Stapleton Parachute Chris Janson Holding Her Hillary Scott Thy Will Easton Corbin Are You With Me Brett Eldredge Wanna Be That Song LANco Long Live Tonight Trailer Choir Ice Hot Summer Randy Rodgers Band Neon Blues Aaron Watson Bluebonnets
Going Recurrent or Leaving or Dropping Out Chase Bryant Little Bit Of You Peak #4 Brantley Gilbert Stone Cold Sober Peak #18 Eric Paslay High Class Peak #31 (I'm about 80% sure this'll leave)
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onebuffalo
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Post by onebuffalo on Apr 25, 2016 8:13:26 GMT -5
Chase Bryant Little Bit Of You Peak #4
After 53 weeks on? Don't be so hasty!
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Deleted
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Post by Deleted on Apr 25, 2016 8:15:45 GMT -5
Chase Bryant Little Bit Of You Peak #4 After 53 weeks on? Don't be so hasty! I just want that song gone, if I ever hear it again I will probably go on a cussing rampage That song did so much better than it should have.
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onebuffalo
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Post by onebuffalo on Apr 25, 2016 8:29:40 GMT -5
Chase Bryant Little Bit Of You Peak #4 After 53 weeks on? Don't be so hasty! I just want that song gone, if I ever hear it again I will probably go on a cussing rampage That song did so much better than it should have. I agree. It can skip the recurrent chart and go to the discount bin. Don't know anyone will want it, though.
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Deleted
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Post by Deleted on Apr 25, 2016 21:36:36 GMT -5
Tonight's chart saw 4 recurrent songs (Cole Swindell, Chase Bryant, Brantley Gilbert and Eric Paslay). Next week is also looking promising for a few more recurrent songs as I think Rascal Flatts will fall recurrent on BB and I'm also thinking Curb will give up on Lee Brice's song this week so that's two, I'm also having a feeling that Martina McBride will be dropping out as it appears Nash Icon is giving up with the album dropping this Friday and all.
For debuts this time next week, I'm fully expecting Florida Georgia Line to debut with "Holy" and for other possible debuts, I'm thinking Olivia Lane, Parmalee, Chris Janson, and Chris Stapleton have the highest chance of debuting this week. So it is nice to start seeing some songs start to fall.
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