Hey, predictions are here. Kind of a housecleaning, but overall a solid week. So let's do this and enjoy!!!
Billboard Country Airplay Top 601. Jason Aldean “Girl Like You”
2. Scotty McCreery “This Is It”
3. Thomas Rhett “Sixteen”
4. Luke Combs “Beautiful Crazy”
5. Luke Bryan “What Makes You Country”
6. Dierks Bentley & Brothers Osborne “Burning Man”
(last week?)7. Dustin Lynch “Good Girl”
(last week?)8. Jordan Davis “Take It From Me”
9. Chris Stapleton “Millionaire”
10. Midland “Burn Out”
11. Riley Green “There Was This Girl”
12-14. Michael Ray “One That Got Away”
12-14. Old Dominion “Make It Sweet”
12-14. Jake Owen “Down to the Honky-tonk”
15. Carrie Underwood “Love Wins”
16. Jon Pardi “Night Shift”
17. Brett Young “Here Tonight”
18. Keith Urban “Never Comin Down”
19-21. Chase Rice “Eyes On You”
19-21. Cody Johnson “On My Way to You”
19-21. Kelsea Ballerini “Miss Me More”
22. Eli Young Band “Love Ain't”
23-24. Brett Eldredge “Love Someone”
23-24. Tyler Rich “The Difference”
(last week?)25-26. Kane Brown “Good As You”
25-26. Rodney Atkins “Caught Up In The Country”
27. Lee Brice “Rumor”
28-29. Morgan Wallen “Whiskey Glasses”
28-29. Florida Georgia Line “Talk You Out of It”
30. Maren Morris “Girl”
31. LoCash “Feels Like A Party”
32-35. Brantley Gilbert & Lindsay Ell “What Happens In A Small Town”
32-35. Runaway June “Buy My Own Drinks”
32-35. Randy Houser featuring Hillary Lindsey “What Whiskey Does”
32-35. Eric Church “Some of It”
36. Chris Young “Raised On Country”
37-39. Maddie & Tae “Friends Don't”
(last week?)37-39. Rascal Flatts “Back To Life”
37-39. Cole Swindell “Love You Too Late”
40. Carly Pearce “Closer to You”
41. Morgan Evans “Day Drunk”
42-44. Brandon Lay “Yada Yada Yada”
42-44. Russell Dickerson “Every Little Thing”
42-44. Garth Brooks “Stronger Than Me”
45. Justin Moore “The Ones That Didn't Make It Back Home”
46-50. Dylan Scott “Nothing to Do Town”
46-50. Lauren Alaina “Ladies In The 90s”
46-50. Brad Paisley “Bucked Off”
46-50. Dylan Schneider “How Does It Sound”
46-50. Brothers Osborne “I Don't Remember Me (Before You)”
51-53. Chris Lane “I Don't Know About You”
51-53. Toby Keith “Don't Let The Old Man In”
(last week)51-53. Billy Currington “Bring It On Over”
(Re-Entry!)54. Walker Hayes “90s Country”
55. Ashley McBryde “Girl Goin Nowhere”
56-60. Jimmie Allen “Make Me Want To”
56-60. Jon Langston “When It Comes to Loving You”
56-60. Matt Stell “Prayed For You”
56-60. Adam Hambrick “Rockin All Night Long”
56-60. Dan + Shay “All To Myself”
(New!) New and Active Section (in no particular order)Tim McGraw “Thought About You”
Travis Denning “After A Few”
Mitchell Tenpenny “Alcohol You Later”
Dillon Carmichael “Dancing Away with My Heart”
Devin Dawson “Dark Horse”
Haley & Michaels “Taking Off”
Going Recurrent or Drop outsDan + Shay “Speechless” |Peak #1| (4 weeks) | Weeks: 25
Luke Combs “She Got The Best of Me” |Peak #1 (4 weeks)| Weeks: 30
CommentaryJason Aldean gets his second and final week at #1 with “Girl Like You”. Next week looks to be Scotty McCreery getting his second straight #1 with “This Is It”. Now whether or not Scotty gets a second week at #1 all depends upon the white hot Luke Combs with “Beautiful Crazy”. Luke Combs is moving through the chart like a bullet and after hitting the Top 10 last week he should easily make the Top 5 this week. Unfortunately this isn't good news for Luke Bryan and his latest single “What Makes You Country” as I don't know if Luke Bryan has enough in him to wait out Luke Combs.
Dierks Bentley is falling like a brick with “Burning Man” and stands a great chance of going recurrent next week. Jordan Davis keeps looking okay for a Top 5 finish. While Chris Stapleton and Midland remain afloat and gain well enough. Both should at least last another week.
Brett Young, Michael Ray, and Old Dominion all have great weeks with “Here Tonight”, “One That Got Away”, and “Make It Sweet” respectively. All 3 are looking great. Carrie Underwood slows down hardcore with “Love Wins”, same with other poor callout/sales songs from Jake Owen, Riley Green, and Jon Pardi. Out of the 4 of them I do think Jon Pardi and Riley Green are looking the best as both “Down to the Honky-tonk” and “Love Wins” in particular have poor callout scores. Maybe Jake Owen’s sales can salvage the chart climb. But “Love Wins” is really looking to be in a lot of trouble.
The last 2 spots in the Top 20 look to be up for grabs between Kelsea Ballerini, Chase Rice, and Cody Johnson. Eli Young Band gets some fuel back into “Love Ain't” as the band looks to get their first Top 20 soon since 2014 with “Dust”. Tyler Rich struggles with “The Difference” and should be passed by the Eli Young Band and probably Brett Eldredge. “The Difference” is really looking weak and shouldn't last much longer. Florida Georgia Line finally enters the Top 30 with “Talk You Out of It” in the songs 14th week. The other song entering or in this case re-entering, is Maren Morris “Girl” which will make
zaclord 🌈 happy.
Chris Young had an amazing week with “Raised On Country” as he easily enters the Top 40 and has a great chance of making the Top 30 next week. Solid weeks in the 30s for Runaway June, Brantley Gilbert/Lindsay Ell, Carly Pearce, and Eric Church. All 4 of these songs look good, and I feel like all are a lock or stand a great chance for Top 20. However, for the latest songs from Randy Houser/Hillary Lindsey, Maddie & Tae, and Rascal Flatts all continue to struggle and none are looking good at all. Cole Swindell should enter the Top 40 this week with “Love You Too Late” after getting back his CT40 spins.
In the 40s and 50s, Lauren Alaina sees a massive setback as she loses her KKBQ airplay somewhat. Dylan Scott has a great week, and Ashley McBryde is looking decent. Older songs from Brandon Lay and Dylan Schneider see great weeks as Russell Dickerson stays stuck. Billy Currington stands a solid chance of re-entering. Finally the new single from Dan + Shay “All To Myself” should sneak into the chart.
Songs I see leaving soonDierks Bentley featuring Brothers Osborne “Burning Man”
Dustin Lynch “Good Girl”
Chris Stapleton “Millionaire”
Midland “Burn Out”
Keith Urban “Never Comin Down”
Tyler Rich “The Difference”
Rodney Atkins “Caught Up In The Country”
Maddie & Tae “Friends Don't”
Brandon Lay “Yada Yada Yada”
Brad Paisley “Bucked Off”
Billy Currington “Bring It On Over”
Songs on the Hot SeatJake Owen “Down to the Honky-tonk”
Carrie Underwood “Love Wins”
Jon Pardi “Night Shift”
Brett Eldredge “Love Someone”
Randy Houser featuring Hillary Lindsey “What Whiskey Does”
Rascal Flatts “Back To Life”
Dylan Schneider “How Does It Sound”
Next 5 Songs I see debuting or returning soonTim McGraw “Thought About You”
Travis Denning “After A Few”
Mitchell Tenpenny “Alcohol You Later”
Ryan Hurd “To a T”
Aaron Watson “Kiss That Girl Goodbye”
Closing ThoughtsGood to lose a couple of former #1s finally. Besides Dierks Bentley, I do hope we can finally get one of the other deadweight songs out in Keith Urban, Tyler Rich, or Rodney Atkins.
But I have doubts about a housecleaning since the labels seem stubborn
Regardless, hope you enjoy reading this predictions.