Deleted
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Post by Deleted on Dec 9, 2012 17:29:51 GMT -5
Here are my predictions for the 12/22 Billboard Country Airplay chart. Projected audience totals (in millions) for the top 50 songs are in parentheses.
1) Florida Georgia Line – “Cruise” (38.700) 2) Justin Moore – “’Til My Last Day” (34.680) 3) Kip Moore – “Beer Money” (33.370) 4) Zac Brown Band – “Goodbye In Her Eyes” (32.970) 5-7) Greg Bates – “Did It For The Girl” (28.180) 5-7) Luke Bryan – “Kiss Tomorrow Goodbye” (28.000) [last week] 5-7) Eric Church – “Creepin’” (27.720) 8-9) Jake Owen – “The One That Got Away” (27.070) [last week] 8-9) Randy Houser – “How Country Feels” (26.970) 10) Brad Paisley – “Southern Comfort Zone” (23.570) 11) Kenny Chesney – “El Cerrito Place” (22.940) 12-13) Jason Aldean (ft. Luke Bryan & Eric Church) – “The Only Way I Know” (21.190) 12-13) Gary Allan – “Every Storm (Runs Out Of Rain)” (21.050) 14-15) The Band Perry – “Better Dig Two” (20.540) 14-15) Taylor Swift – “Begin Again” (20.450) 16) Dierks Bentley – “Tip It On Back” (18.140) 17) Little Big Town – “Tornado” (14.950) 18-19) Tim McGraw – “One Of Those Nights” (14.560) 18-19) Darius Rucker – “True Believers” (14.460) 20) Hunter Hayes – “Somebody’s Heartbreak” (12.930) 21) Thomas Rhett – “Beer With Jesus” (12.280) 22-23) Carrie Underwood – “Two Black Cadillacs” (11.200) 22-23) Casey James – “Crying On A Suitcase” (10.950) 24) Kacey Musgraves – “Merry Go ‘Round” (10.130) 25) Chris Cagle – “Let There Be Cowgirls” (8.310) 26) Eli Young Band – “Say Goodnight” (7.000) 27) Thompson Square – “If I Didn’t Have You” (6.100) 28) Faith Hill – “American Heart” (5.350) 29) George Strait – “Give It All We Got Tonight” (5.090) 30-32) Chris Young – “I Can Take It From There” (4.650) 30-32) Dustin Lynch – “She Cranks My Tractor” (4.650) 30-32) Maggie Rose – “I Ain’t Your Mama” (4.500) 33) Toby Keith – “Hope On The Rocks” (3.690) 34) Gloriana – “Can’t Shake You” (3.390) 35) Brantley Gilbert – “More Than Miles” (2.590) 36-38) Kelly Clarkson (ft. Vince Gill) – “Don’t Rush” (2.190) 36-38) Lee Brice – “I Drive Your Truck” (2.130) 36-38) Jana Kramer – “Whiskey” (2.010) 39-41) Craig Morgan – “More Trucks Than Cars” (1.850) 39-41) Blake Shelton (ft. Miranda Lambert) – “Jingle Bell Rock” (1.850) 39-41) Hayden Panettiere – “Telescope” (1.740) 42-44) The Farm – “Be Grateful” (1.660) 42-44) Jerrod Niemann – “Only God Could Love You More” (1.610) 42-44) Craig Campbell – “Outta My Head” (1.580) 45) Montgomery Gentry – “I’ll Keep The Kids” (1.350) 46-50) Brett Eldredge – “Don’t Ya?” (1.120) 46-50) Love & Theft – “Runnin’ Out Of Air” (1.120) 46-50) Lady Antebellum – “A Holly Jolly Christmas” (1.100) 46-50) Uncle Kracker – “Nobody’s Sad On A Saturday Night” (1.050) 46-50) Kix Brooks – “Moonshine Road” (1.000) 51-53) Josh Turner – “Find Me A Baby” 51-53) Colt Ford (ft. Jake Owen) – “Back” 51-53) Florida Georgia Line – “Get Your Shine On” [NEW!] 54-57) Sarah Darling – “Home To Me” 54-57) Aaron Lewis – “Forever” 54-57) Mumford & Sons – “I Will Wait” 54-57) Big & Rich – “Party Like Cowboyz” [NEW!] 58-59) Train (ft. Ashley Monroe) – “Bruises” [NEW!] 58-59) Sweetwater Rain – “Starshine” [NEW!] 60) Blake Shelton (ft. Michael Buble) – “Home” [NEW!]
Dropping Off: Miranda Lambert's "Fastest Girl In Town", Rascal Flatts' "Come Wake Me Up", Lauren Alaina's "Eighteen Inches", The Lost Trailers' "American Beauty", and Kelleigh Bannen's "Sorry On The Rocks"
Comments:
Florida Georgia Line will easily get a 2nd week at #1 as "Cruise" stakes its claim as one of the biggest hits of the year. Justin Moore has had an incredible chart run and should hit #2. There's a chance he could be #1 a week from now, but Kip Moore's "Beer Money" and the red hot ZBB tune "Goodbye In Her Eyes" are also in the hunt, so we could have a race among the 3 as "Cruise" will likely start its descent. Greg Bates looks likely to take debut single "Did It For The Girl" into the top 5 this week, holding off a big push from Eric Church's "Creepin'". Meanwhile, Brad Paisley's "Southern Comfort Zone" should limp into the top 10.
Kenny Chesney's "El Cerrito Place" continue to struggle a bit as well, although it's shown some improvement this week, and should jump up to #11, which means top 10 for him a week from now. But some heavy hitters are closing in fast, including Jason Aldean's latest, which of course features pals Luke Bryan and Eric Church. Gary Allan and The Band Perry are also on a roll, while Taylor Swift continues to tread water. Dierks Bentley has made some more progress this week, while Little Big Town has slowed down quite a bit, and Darius Rucker continues to really struggle. Tim McGraw should fly into the top 20, and Hunter Hayes is also top 20 bound. Thomas Rhett and Kacey Musgraves are among the slower movers, but are still making steady progress, while Casey James is still hanging in there as well.
Carrie Underwood continues to blaze up the chart with "Two Black Cadillacs", which will be just a week away from the top 20. Meanwhile, Thompson Square continues to look pretty good, while veterans Faith Hill and George Strait struggle. Dustin Lynch is off to a great start with sophomore single "She Cranks My Tractor", and he should be battling it out with Chris Young and Maggie Rose for that last top 30 spot. Toby Keith has had a decent week but is moving slow compared to his standards, and he's certainly not moving as fast as the typical superstar single en route to the top 10 would. Lee Brice is off to an excellent start with "I Drive Your Truck", and should rocket into the top 40. Kelly Clarkson should move up a few more spots, with Craig Morgan also moving into the top 40.
Lower down on the chart, Jerrod Niemann and Craig Campbell are both doing alright, while Josh Turner continues to really struggle. We should see debuts this week from Florida Georgia Line and Big & Rich, and likely Sweewater Rain, too. Train could also debut, joining fellow non-country acts Uncle Kracker and Mumford & Sons that have landed on the chart in the last few weeks. In addition, Michael Buble might make an appearance, as a guest on Blake Shelton's Christmas version of "Home", but it's also possible that Kelleigh Bannen could hang on to the #59 or #60 spot, or maybe a few different Christmas songs could challenge and creep on to the chart instead.
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Deleted
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Post by Deleted on Dec 16, 2012 21:18:38 GMT -5
Predictions for 12/29 Billboard Airplay chart. Projected audience totals (in millions) for the top 50 are in parentheses. Enjoy! :)
1-3) Florida Georgia Line – “Cruise” (36.730) 1-3) Justin Moore – “’Til My Last Day” (36.110) 1-3) Kip Moore – “Beer Money” (35.810) 4) Zac Brown Band – “Goodbye In Her Eyes” (34.040) 5) Eric Church – “Creepin’” (29.780) 6) Randy Houser – “How Country Feels” (28.410) 7) Greg Bates – “Did It For The Girl” (27.600) 8) Brad Paisley – “Southern Comfort Zone” (24.120) 9-10) Gary Allan – “Every Storm (Runs Out Of Rain)” (23.130) 9-10) Kenny Chesney – “El Cerrito Place” (23.010) 11-12) Taylor Swift – “Begin Again” (21.940) 11-12) Jason Aldean (ft. Luke Bryan & Eric Church) – “The Only Way I Know” (21.900) 13) The Band Perry – “Better Dig Two” (20.680) 14) Dierks Bentley – “Tip It On Back” (19.360) 15) Little Big Town – “Tornado” (16.850) 16) Tim McGraw – “One Of Those Nights” (16.410) 17) Hunter Hayes – “Somebody’s Heartbreak” (14.410) 18) Carrie Underwood – “Two Black Cadillacs” (13.300) 19-20) Darius Rucker – “True Believers” (12.830) 19-20) Thomas Rhett – “Beer With Jesus” (12.570) 21-22) Kacey Musgraves – “Merry Go ‘Round” (11.380) 21-22) Casey James – “Crying On A Suitcase” (11.000) 23) Chris Cagle – “Let There Be Cowgirls” (9.220) 24) Eli Young Band – “Say Goodnight” (7.100) 25) Thompson Square – “If I Didn’t Have You” (6.630) 26) Faith Hill – “American Heart” (5.970) 27-28) Dustin Lynch – “She Cranks My Tractor” (5.460) 27-28) Lee Brice – “I Drive Your Truck” (5.360) 29-30) George Strait – “Give It All We Got Tonight” (5.160) 29-30) Chris Young – “I Can Take It From There” (4.950) 31-32) Toby Keith – “Hope On The Rocks” (4.430) 31-32) Maggie Rose – “I Ain’t Your Mama” (4.350) 33) Gloriana – “Can’t Shake You” (3.470) 34-36) Brantley Gilbert – “More Than Miles” (2.860) 34-36) Kelly Clarkson (ft. Vince Gill) – “Don’t Rush” (2.750) 34-36) Hayden Panettiere – “Telescope” (2.730) 37-38) Craig Morgan – “More Trucks Than Cars” (2.370) 37-38) Jerrod Niemann – “Only God Could Love You More” (2.340) 39-41) Jana Kramer – “Whiskey” (2.130) 39-41) Blake Shelton (ft. Miranda Lambert) – “Jingle Bell Rock” (2.100) 39-41) Lady Antebellum – “A Holly Jolly Christmas” (2.020) 42) The Farm – “Be Grateful” (1.750) 43) Craig Campbell – “Outta My Head” (1.660) 44-45) Love & Theft – “Runnin’ Out Of Air” (1.570) 44-45) Brett Eldredge – “Don’t Ya?” (1.520) 46) Montgomery Gentry – “I’ll Keep The Kids” (1.300) 47-48) Uncle Kracker – “Nobody’s Sad On A Saturday Night” (1.200) 47-48) Kix Brooks – “Moonshine Road” (1.190) 49-50) Josh Turner – “Find Me A Baby” (1.060) 49-50) Mumford & Sons – “I Will Wait” (1.000) 51-52) Florida Georgia Line – “Get Your Shine On” 51-52) The Henningsens – “American Beautiful” [NEW!] 53-55) Sarah Darling – “Home To Me” 53-55) Aaron Lewis – “Forever” 53-55) Blake Shelton (ft. Michael Buble) – “Home” 56) Colt Ford (ft. Jake Owen) – “Back” 57-60) Sweetwater Rain – “Starshine” 57-60) Big & Rich – “Party Like Cowboyz” 57-60) Rascal Flatts – “Changed” [NEW!] 57-60) Train (ft. Ashley Monroe) – “Bruises”
Dropping Off: Luke Bryan's "Kiss Tomorrow Goodbye" and Jake Owen's "The One That Got Away"
Comments:
I don't remember the last time the race for #1 was so close. This week, it's pretty much impossible for me to guess. Kip Moore has already secured the Mediabase #1 but Billboard is going to be much tougher. We knew coming into the week that Kip trailed Justin by almost 2 million, and was behind FGL by a full 6 million. "Cruise" is on its way down, Justin had a moderate week, and Kip had a huge week...and they're all coming together around the same mark. My projections, using Mediabase to Billboard ratios to translate the MB numbers to BB numbers, show FGL still on top, which would be a 3rd week at #1 for "Cruise". But there are other things to consider. Their ratio has been much better than Kip's for weeks now, but if MCA is serious about getting "Beer Money" to #1, they were probably able to get a better 'translation ratio' this week. Bottom line is, I have no clue who will be #1 tomorrow.
Anyway, the Zac Brown Band looks like the front-runner for #1 next week. They'll be sitting back and waiting patiently, posting a modest gain, despite slipping to #4 this week. They won't be too far behind that top 3 and should definitely be ready to jump right into the #1 spot in a week's time. After peaking at #5 last week, Greg Bates' debut single "Did It For The Girl" should fall back a bit, as Eric Church and Randy Houser move on by. Eric will pick up his 3rd straight top 5 hit with "Creepin'". Randy is closing in on just his 2nd top 5 hit. Brad Paisley should move up a bit; "Southern Comfort Zone" is showing some more life but is still looking feeble compared to a few of the songs not too far behind it. One of those is Gary Allan's comeback hit "Every Storm (Runs Out Of Rain)", which will blast into the top 10 this week, becoming his first top 10 since "Watching Airplanes" peaked at #2 just under 5 years ago. Kenny Chesney will also hit the top 10 with "El Cerrito Place", but he's still struggling quite a bit.
Jason Aldean and The Band Perry have had the 2 fastest moving songs for weeks now but both have oddly slowed down drastically this week. Taylor Swift, meanwhile, has caught another gust of wind and should close in on the top 10. But can she hold off Jason and TBP for another week? She'd need to do that, and pass Kenny or maybe Greg Bates, to get into the top 10, since no one except for maybe Greg will go recurrent. However, I wouldn't be surprised to see Greg hang in there, which could mean Taylor will have to wait until January for a chance at the top 10.
Dierks Bentley and Little Big Town will both hit the top 15, with Tim McGraw and Hunter Hayes both moving up nicely while Carrie Underwood storms into the top 20. Thomas Rhett should also make the top 20, after waiting patiently for a few weeks. Darius Rucker, meanwhile, has thrown in the towel, with "True Believers" starting its decline. Kacey and Casey are still hanging in there, with the EYB struggling to move up. Look for Dustin Lynch to surge into the top 30 along with Lee Brice, who is just screaming up the chart right now. Some of the strong chart runs for these newer artists are no doubt coming at the expense of some veteran artists; Faith Hill and George Strait in particular have been spinning their tires all week, with Toby Keith also moving rather slowly.
Kelly Clarkson should move up a few more spots, with Jerrod Niemann also looking good, as he should enter the top 40 with ease. Blake and Miranda will be battling it out with Lady Antebellum, to see which Christmas song can win the race to the top 40. Josh Turner, meanwhile, continues to go nowhere in a hurry, relegated to struggling in the lower reaches of the chart alongside Uncle Kracker, Kix Brooks, and a few newbies.
Two former #1 hits will go recurrent this week--Luke Bryan's KTG and Jake Owen's TOTGA. There's a decent chance Colt Ford could join them, and a slight chance Maggie Rose could as well. I'm guessing Maggie will hang on but it could go either way with Colt. In any case, there should be a few new entries. The obvious one will be the debut single from The Henningsens, called "American Beautiful". It's getting quite a bit of early love and is looking for an impressive debut close to the top 50. Rascal Flatts' "Changed" and Josh Abbott Band's "I'll Sing About Mine" are also in the mix but there's obviously a great chance that the only other debuts (besides The Henningsens) will come from new Christmas tunes. It's nearly impossible to track holiday tunes on Mediabase, though, so I left my top 60 as it is when in reality, some of the songs near the bottom may very well be replaced by a few new Christmas tunes.
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michellef
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Post by michellef on Dec 16, 2012 21:39:24 GMT -5
It's kinda funny that the majority of females on the chart right now originally came from TV shows
Edit: maybe not the majority, but about half
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Post by Spacey_Kacey on Dec 16, 2012 21:54:51 GMT -5
Agh, why are the Blake Shelton duets not getting airplay! I know "The Christmas Song" was New & Active too. The Kelly, Reba, Pistol Annies and Dorothy Shackleford ones are the songs from there that I want to chart. And for Scotty: Christmas in Heaven! Why don't they play that?
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Deleted
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Post by Deleted on Dec 16, 2012 22:02:02 GMT -5
^I'm sure several Christmas songs will chart yet. There will probably be a few tomorrow, a few more on the 1/5 chart, and then a bunch on the 1/12 chart (it's for the week of the 24th thru the 30th so it contains Christmas day and will thus have the most holiday airplay on it). Keep in mind we're still more than a week away from the holiday itself.
I'd bet that Scotty charts a couple tracks, Lady A will probably chart most of the 'new half' of their album (6 of the tracks were originally released as a Christmas EP 2 years ago and all charted, so they can't chart again), and I'd bet that Blake charts at least 5-6 more tracks as well.
I just didn't list any new Christmas songs debuting for tomorrow because it's hard to track them on AllAccess right now, since most of the limited airplay they are receiving is from syndicated shows. Also, I think some of the Christmas songs don't show up with nearly as much airplay on Mediabase because MB temporarily excludes a few stations from their panel if they are playing non-stop Christmas music (I'm fairly certain that this is true for one of the Kansas City stations and it could certainly be true for a few other stations as well). That airplay still counts on Billboard though, I believe.
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.indulgecountry
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Best Country Poster 2011, 2017, & 2018
"You left a mark on my face // And brought a dozen red flags in a vase"
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Post by .indulgecountry on Dec 17, 2012 0:16:15 GMT -5
^ Yeah, I'm pretty sure the 94.1 country station here in KC is playing just Christmas music right now. In fact, the slogan was even altered to advertise that they're KC's non-stop Christmas station instead of country music.
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Deleted
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Post by Deleted on Dec 23, 2012 21:52:09 GMT -5
Here are my top 60 predictions for the 1/5 Billboard Country Airplay chart. The projected audience totals (in millions) for the top 50 songs are in parentheses. Enjoy! :)
1) Justin Moore – “’Til My Last Day” (36.590) 2) Zac Brown Band – “Goodbye In Her Eyes” (35.460) 3-4) Florida Georgia Line – “Cruise” (34.430) 3-4) Kip Moore – “Beer Money” (34.020) 5) Randy Houser – “How Country Feels” (31.030) 6) Gary Allan – “Every Storm (Runs Out Of Rain)” (25.850) 7) Brad Paisley – “Southern Comfort Zone” (24.530) 8) Jason Aldean (ft. Luke Bryan & Eric Church) – “The Only Way I Know” (24.040) 9) Taylor Swift – “Begin Again” (22.000) 10-11) Kenny Chesney – “El Cerrito Place” (20.420) 10-11) The Band Perry – “Better Dig Two” (20.340) 12) Dierks Bentley – “Tip It On Back” (19.890) 13) Tim McGraw – “One Of Those Nights” (19.220) 14) Little Big Town – “Tornado” (17.460) 15) Hunter Hayes – “Somebody’s Heartbreak” (16.870) 16) Carrie Underwood – “Two Black Cadillacs” (14.570) 17-19) Kacey Musgraves – “Merry Go ‘Round” (12.610) 17-19) Casey James – “Crying On A Suitcase” (12.360) 17-19) Thomas Rhett – “Beer With Jesus” (12.150) 20) Chris Cagle – “Let There Be Cowgirls” (10.440) 21-23) Thompson Square – “If I Didn’t Have You” (8.590) 21-23) Darius Rucker – “True Believers” (8.370) 21-23) Eli Young Band – “Say Goodnight” (8.170) 24-26) Lee Brice – “I Drive Your Truck” (7.350) 24-26) George Strait – “Give It All We Got Tonight” (7.290) 24-26) Chris Young – “I Can Take It From There” (7.050) 27-28) Dustin Lynch – “She Cranks My Tractor” (6.740) 27-28) Faith Hill – “American Heart” (6.440) 29-30) Maggie Rose – “I Ain’t Your Mama” (5.020) 29-30) Toby Keith – “Hope On The Rocks” (4.900) 31) Gloriana – “Can’t Shake You” (4.160) 32) Brantley Gilbert – “More Than Miles” (3.510) 33) Blake Shelton (ft. Miranda Lambert) – “Jingle Bell Rock” (3.250) 34-37) Jana Kramer – “Whiskey” (2.740) 34-37) Hayden Panettiere – “Telescope” (2.640) 34-37) Kelly Clarkson (ft. Vince Gill) – “Don’t Rush” (2.620) 34-37) Jerrod Niemann – “Only God Could Love You More” (2.510) 38) Craig Morgan – “More Trucks Than Cars” (2.230) 39-41) The Farm – “Be Grateful” (2.030) 39-41) Lady Antebellum – “A Holly Jolly Christmas” (1.980) 39-41) Florida Georgia Line – “Get Your Shine On” (1.950) 42) The Henningsens – “American Beautiful” (1.740) 43-45) Craig Campbell – “Outta My Head” (1.650) 43-45) Love & Theft – “Runnin’ Out Of Air” (1.620) 43-45) Brett Eldredge – “Don’t Ya?” (1.590) 46-47) Montgomery Gentry – “I’ll Keep The Kids” (1.380) 46-47) Uncle Kracker – “Nobody’s Sad On A Saturday Night” (1.350) 48-51) Kix Brooks – “Moonshine Road” (1.190) 48-51) Blake Shelton (ft. Michael Buble) – “Home” (1.100) 48-51) Josh Turner – “Find Me A Baby” (1.080) 48-51) Rascal Flatts – “Changed” [NEW!] 52-54) Blake Shelton – “Let It Snow! Let It Snow! Let It Snow!” 52-54) Mumford & Sons – “I Will Wait” 52-54) Sarah Darling – “Home To Me” 55-57) Blake Shelton (ft. the Pistol Annies) – “Blue Christmas” 55-57) Miranda Lambert – “Mama’s Broken Heart” [NEW!] 55-57) Aaron Lewis – “Forever” 58) Train (ft. Ashley Monroe) – “Bruises” 59-60) Sweetwater Rain – “Starshine” (or a new Christmas song) 59-60) Big & Rich – “Party Like Cowboyz” (or a new Christmas song)
Dropping Off: Eric Church's "Creepin'" and Greg Bates' "Did It For The Girl"
Comments:
After an incredible yet weird chart run, Justin Moore will find himself sitting at #1 with "'Til My Last Day". The song struggled for weeks in the 30's and at many points looked like it was gonna just fall off the chart quietly, but then it picked up the pace likely due to very good call-out scores, and continued to be a sleeper hit all fall. Recently, Justin found himself in a battle with that other Moore, Kip, while seemingly being blocked from the top by the mega-hit "Cruise". Kip snagged the Mediabase #1 last week but couldn't come out on top on Billboard, and was unable to hang in the race this week. And now, after 3 weeks at #1, FGL's "Cruise" is finally on the way down. Justin is there to move up to #1, holding off a Zac Brown Band tune that has curiously slammed on the brakes for the last 2 weeks after screaming into the top 3. ZBB should hit #1 in a week or two, but talk about good timing and good luck for Justin!
Meanwhile, look for Randy Houser to surge into the top 5 for just the 2nd time in his career, while Gary Allan continues to speed up the chart. Brad Paisley, however, is only inching up the chart and now has Jason Aldean right on his heels. Aldean's latest single will give him, plus buddies Luke Bryan & Eric Church, another top 10 this week. Taylor Swift's "Begin Again" continues to move slowly but she'll finally crack the top 10 this week, with Dierks Bentley also closing in while The Band Perry begins to rebound a bit. Look for Little Big Town to crack the top 15, and Hunter Hayes should as well, as long as Eric Church's "Creepin'" goes recurrent.
Carrie Underwood should move up several more spots this week, as should Kacey Musgraves as she cracks the top 20 for the first time. Casey James has caught a second wind and will also rebound back into the top 20, setting a new peak in the process. Chris Cagle is looking at his second consecutive top 20 hit while Thomas Rhett continues to move slowly and Darius Rucker's nosedive continues.
Thompson Square should move up a few spots this week, with the Eli Young Band still struggling as Lee Brice charges in. George Strait has shown a bit more life this week but he'll have to let Lee Brice on by, and will still have youngsters Chris Young and Dustin Lynch to deal with. Veterans Faith Hill and Toby Keith continue to move quite slowly with Maggie Rose hanging just inside the top 30. Look for Gloriana and Brantley Gilbert to move closer to the top 30.
Jana Kramer has had a solid week and could pick up a few spots. The Farm has a great chance to crack the top 40 but red hot new act Florida Georgia Line is closing in with "Get Your Shine On" and it could crack the top 40 very soon, despite not going for adds until January 21. Another new act, family trio The Henningsens, is off to an impressive start with debut single "American Beautiful". They should jump up a bunch of spots this week, landing close to the top 40. Montgomery Gentry has slowed down quite a bit while Josh Turner and Kix Brooks continue to go nowhere.
For recurrents this week, Greg Bates' "Did It For The Girl" will definitely drop off the chart. I've taken Eric Church's "Creepin'" off as well, though there's a chance he could remain ahead of Chesney and TBP in audience and therefore "Creepin'" would be at #10 and everyone below that would be bumped down a notch. It's gonna be close but I'm leaning slightly toward Eric joining Greg in falling out of the top 10. That leaves a couple of open spots for debuts. Rascal Flatts' new single "Changed" will easily score the highest debut, possibly in the top 50 or very close to it. Miranda Lambert's "Mama's Broken Heart" is also looking at an early debut. Other possible debuts include Eric Church's "Like Jesus Does", Jake Owen's "Anywhere With You", and Darius Rucker's "Wagon Wheel" along with a few Christmas songs, of course. This could mean someone like Sweetwater Rain and/or Big & Rich get bumped off the chart. Of the Christmas songs that could debut this week, the most likely would be Scotty McCreery's "Let It Snow", Lady Antebellum's "Christmas (Baby Please Come Home)", and Blake Shelton's "The Christmas Song", "White Christmas", and "Winter Wonderland".
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rbundy1987
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Post by rbundy1987 on Dec 24, 2012 21:52:40 GMT -5
Billboard Country Airplay Highlights for 1/5/2013
Country Airplay *** No. 1 *** "Til My Last Day" Justin Moore Greatest Gainer No. 17 "Somebody's Heartbreak" Hunter Hayes Hot Shot Debut No. 52 "Changed" Rascal Flatts Debut No. 54 "Mama's Broken Heart" Miranda Lambert
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Deleted
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Post by Deleted on Dec 24, 2012 22:19:54 GMT -5
Well that's...really interesting. How is Hunter only at #17? Did Billboard not send anyone recurrent? There's no way anyone from behind Hunter could've passed him, because then they'd be the Greatest Gainer. So it must be that Eric Church and Greg Bates both stayed on the chart...I admit there was a chance Eric could've hung on but I was certain Bates would leave.
Very perplexing highlights.
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someguy
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Post by someguy on Dec 26, 2012 11:41:56 GMT -5
Strange. Greg Bates fell to #11, but they kept him on. Eric Church only fell to #9, so he would have stayed on regardless. It'll be interesting to see if they pull them (along with Darius Rucker) next week, or keep them on throughout the holidays.
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Deleted
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Post by Deleted on Dec 26, 2012 14:11:47 GMT -5
It is very bizarre. If they let Bates stay on at #11 on the 1/5 chart, I can't see why they'd pull him at the end of this week, with Christmas and all. Technically, it will be his 3rd straight drop week (same goes for Darius) but it will only be Eric's 2nd. I really, really don't know why DIFTG didn't go recurrent. Anyway, here's the chart, for anyone who wants to see it. 1/5/13 Billboard Country Airplay chart
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Zazie
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Post by Zazie on Dec 26, 2012 17:07:30 GMT -5
It is very bizarre. If they let Bates stay on at #11 on the 1/5 chart, I can't see why they'd pull him at the end of this week, with Christmas and all. Technically, it will be his 3rd straight drop week (same goes for Darius) but it will only be Eric's 2nd. I really, really don't know why DIFTG didn't go recurrent. Anyway, here's the chart, for anyone who wants to see it. 1/5/13 Billboard Country Airplay chartThanks for posting the link. I wonder if BB decided to treat this past week the way they generally treat Christmas week, on a theory that there were quite a few days this week affected by Christmas music, and there will only be two days of next week's seven so affected. I know I wrote that sentence but I don't really believe it, because most songs on the 1/5 chart are bulleted, unlike a typical Christmas-week chart, so they didn't need to be rescued. Maybe BB's so clever at inventing the new main chart that they feel like they ought to invent a new approach to Christmas season. I would have pulled the Bates song, myself. We'll see what they do with Rucker, Chesney, Bates, and Church next week. We haven't had many Christmas songs charting so far -- it's just a strange year on the country chart no matter how you analyze it.
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carriekins
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Post by carriekins on Dec 26, 2012 20:29:11 GMT -5
Or perhaps because DIFTG was #10 in spins they didn't send it off to recurrent land?
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Post by Deleted on Dec 27, 2012 3:41:40 GMT -5
Or perhaps because DIFTG was #10 in spins they didn't send it off to recurrent land? No, that doesn't make sense. That happens all the time. A song doesn't have to fall out of the top 10 in both audience and spins. If it falls below #10 in either of the two, and is more than 20 weeks old, it should go recurrent. I have no clue why DIFTG stayed on. It's just BB being bizarre. Zazie's explanation, that it's close enough to Christmas (with the chart week ending at midnight the 23rd), makes the most sense but that still makes BB's decision bizarre, since DIFTG will go recurrent soon anyway. Why not send it off this week? Church and Chesney and Rucker will go recurrent within a few weeks, but Bates shoulda been out the door this week.
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Post by Fanofctrymusic on Dec 31, 2012 16:12:28 GMT -5
Country Airplay *** No. 1 *** "Goodbye In Her Eyes" Zac Brown Band Hot Shot Debut/Greatest Gainer No. 44 "There's A New Kid In Town" Blake Shelton Featuring Kelly Clarkson Debut No. 52 "The Christmas Song" Blake Shelton Debut No. 53 "Jingle Bells" Scotty McCreery Debut No. 54 "The Very Best Time Of Year" Blake Shelton Featuring Trypta-Phunk Debut No. 59 "Let It Snow" Scotty McCreery Debut No. 60 "Go Tell It On The Mountain" Hunter Hayes
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HeyHeyHey
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Post by HeyHeyHey on Dec 31, 2012 17:18:31 GMT -5
I wonder what the record is for the most debuts or re-entries in a single week is. There will be a lot next week because all the holiday songs will be gone.
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Kanenrá:ke
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Post by Kanenrá:ke on Jan 3, 2013 20:34:48 GMT -5
I wonder what the record is for the most debuts or re-entries in a single week is. There will be a lot next week because all the holiday songs will be gone. No sure what the record is but there will be 8 with the christmas songs going recurrent. I'm wondering if Greg, Eric, Kenny and Darius will survive another week if they don't then there will be 12 debuts or re-entries... I'm having some slight trouble filling 12 spots but these are my guesses in no particular order for Re-Entry Train Bruises (Feat. Ashley Monroe) Sarah Darling Home to Me Aaron Lewis Forever Sweetwater Rain Starshine Big & Rich Party Like Cowboyz Mumford & Sons I Will Wait High Valley Love You For A Long Time for Debut Darius Rucker Wagon Wheel Eric Church Like Jesus Does Jake Owen Anywhere With You Josh Abbott Band I'll Sing About Mine LeAnn Rimes Borrowed Austin Webb It's All Good Heartland The Sound A Dream Makes
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mep
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Post by mep on Jan 6, 2013 3:17:07 GMT -5
My guess is that Darius and Eric will fall off despite it being the first week back from the Holidays. I think Greg more than likely will too, but I'm not quite as sure about him. I'm thinking Kenny will stay.
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Zazie
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Post by Zazie on Jan 6, 2013 19:55:10 GMT -5
Answering the question about maximum number of Christmas songs on the chart, I can tell you that the 1/12/08 Billboard chart contained 15 Christmas songs. I'm unaware of any year in which more than 15 charted.
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Post by Deleted on Jan 18, 2013 5:02:16 GMT -5
I think I'm settled in with school enough again, that I'll tackle weekly predictions again this weekend :)
Obviously we've got a 3-horse race for #1 (Randy, Gary, Jason) but there will be some new songs on the lower part of the chart too. By rule, Chesney should get 1 more week before he goes recurrent. Thomas Rhett and Faith Hill look all but done; however, Faith will get at least 2 more weeks and while Rhett may go recurrent on Monday, it's possible he'll get a grace week. I'm on the fence with him. We will see both Moores (Justin & Kip) go recurrent from the top 10, for sure.
For debuts, we will see Eric Church's "Keep On" debut. "Like Jesus Does" is the single but "Keep On" has gotten 49 spins over the past week at KILT in Houston, and that's 650k in audience right there. That should get him to at least 500-600k on Billboard and "Keep On" will debut from unsolicited airplay. ZBB's "Jump Right In" is also gonna get an early start without having been officially announced as a single and sent to radio yet. JRI is getting airplay at both stations here in Phoenix and has 26 spins at KILT, the same station spinning "Keep On". So JRI is over 500k on Mediabase and will debut on Billboard too.
Those are the obvious two debuts. Again, from Moore & Moore going recurrent, there will be at least 2 open spots. Rhett could make for a 3rd, and I think Taylor's "All Too Well" will drop off, as KMLE here in Phoenix has decreased its airplay enough so that it'll likely fall below the threshold of the top 60. Mumford & Sons might also drop off. But, aside from Church and ZBB, I'm finding it hard to find any other songs that look ready to debut. Josh Abbott Band's "I'll Sing About Mine" could get in. Or maybe Thomas Rhett, Taylor, & Mumford hang on. Other possibilities (besides the JAB) would likely be High Valley, Chris Janson, and Blackberry Smoke.
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Zazie
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Post by Zazie on Jan 18, 2013 12:19:02 GMT -5
The top 3 race is terrific this week. Houser just has to hope for one slow day on the part of Allan and especially Aldean (who is gaining an average of a million a day on MB this week). Houser is the favorite to get #1 on MB although by Sunday he may be only 3rd in audience. BB is way too close.
Any chance the LeAnn Rimes song can debut? It had an ad on AllAccess and sometimes that stirs up a few spins.
Looks like Chesney can drop at least 10 places. I'm impressed. We should only have the three recurrent songs you named.
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Post by Deleted on Jan 18, 2013 17:05:49 GMT -5
From what I can tell, Curb and LeAnn are getting very minimal airplay for "Borrowed". It's got 13 spins and 29k at WJVC (Long Island) but I think that station is only on the Mediabase panel. The only other stations playing "Borrowed" at least 7 times a week are WGNE Jacksonville (8 spins, 16k) and WUSH Norfolk (7 spins, 6k). She's also gotten 2 new spins at KXLY Spokane this week but that adds only another 5k.
So that adds up to 56k, if my mental math is correct. The thing about AllAccess though is that you can only see the "leaders" and "starters"...leaders are stations playing the song 7+ times weekly, and starters are stations that have given the song its first spins within the past 7 days. So if there are stations out there spinning it 6 times or fewer, we can't see them.
But I can't imagine that "Borrowed" would even be at 100k on Mediabase or Billboard. She's gonna need quite a few more stations to add the song, if she's gonna chart. It's a pretty unfortunate scenario.
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Zazie
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Post by Zazie on Jan 19, 2013 9:52:31 GMT -5
I think Houser's got #1 clinched on MB and he's extremely likely -- at least 80% likely -- to get the top spot on BB as well. For what passes as my "reasoning," see the Houser thread.
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Post by Fanofctrymusic on Jan 21, 2013 19:09:53 GMT -5
Country Airplay *** No. 1 *** "How Country Feels" Randy Houser Randy Houser scores his first No. 1 on Country Airplay, as "How Country Feels" rises 2-1. He previously charted as high as No. 2 with "Boots On" in 2009. Houser's new leader also served as the fitting first song on "Nash FM 94.7," which earlier today became New York City's first country station in 17 years.
Greatest Gainer No. 14 "Sure Be Cool If You Did" Blake Shelton Hot Shot Debut No. 55 "Keep On" Eric Church Debut No. 58 "Night Train" Jason Aldean Debut No. 59 "Jump Right In" Zac Brown Band
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Post by Deleted on Jan 21, 2013 22:33:29 GMT -5
So I suppose it's sort of 'cheating' if we already have the debuts, but I did my predictions yesterday and was going to post them until...I fell asleep Still, here they are, with the projected Billboard numbers. The only debut I didn't see coming was Jason's "Night Train", but he got all his airplay at KMLE Phoenix (more than 50 spins), so I'm surprised I never heard it this week while driving around. Anyway...my predictions: 1) Randy Houser – “How Country Feels” (36.440) 2-3) Gary Allan – “Every Storm (Runs Out Of Rain)” (35.730) 2-3) Jason Aldean (with Luke Bryan & Eric Church) – “The Only Way I Know” (35.400) 4) Zac Brown Band – “Goodbye In Her Eyes” (31.750) 5-6) Brad Paisley – “Southern Comfort Zone” (30.270) 5-6) The Band Perry – “Better Dig Two” (30.190) 7) Tim McGraw – “One Of Those Nights” (26.750) 8) Taylor Swift – “Begin Again” (24.890) 9) Dierks Bentley – “Tip It On Back” (24.380) 10) Little Big Town – “Tornado” (23.030) 11-12) Carrie Underwood – “Two Black Cadillacs” (21.820) 11-12) Hunter Hayes – “Somebody’s Heartbreak” (21.710) 13) Kacey Musgraves – “Merry Go ‘Round” (17.110) 14) Blake Shelton – “Sure Be Cool If You Did” (15.590) 15) Casey James – “Crying On A Suitcase” (15.210) 16) Lee Brice – “I Drive Your Truck” (14.290) 17-18) Chris Cagle – “Let There Be Cowgirls” (13.570) 17-18) Thompson Square – “If I Didn’t Have You” (13.310) 19-20) Thomas Rhett – “Beer With Jesus” (12.000) 19-20) Chris Young – “I Can Take It From There” (11.670) 21) George Strait – “Give It All We Got Tonight” (9.790) 22-23) Eli Young Band – “Say Goodnight” (8.750) 22-23) Dustin Lynch – “She Cranks My Tractor” (8.500) 24) Toby Keith – “Hope On The Rocks” (7.480) 25) Miranda Lambert – “Mama’s Broken Heart” (6.950) 26-27) Faith Hill – “American Heart” (6.350) 26-27) Brantley Gilbert – “More Than Miles” (6.160) 28) Kenny Chesney – “El Cerrito Place” [last week] (5.500) 29) Florida Georgia Line – “Get Your Shine On” (5.140) 30) Gloriana – “Can’t Shake You” (4.750) 31-32) The Henningsens – “American Beautiful” (4.200) 31-32) Jana Kramer – “Whiskey” (4.160) 33-34) Rascal Flatts – “Changed” (3.630) 33-34) Kelly Clarkson (featuring Vince Gill) – “Don’t Rush” (3.600) 35) Hayden Panettiere – “Telescope” (3.350) 36) Jerrod Niemann – “Only God Could Love You More” (3.050) 37-39) Craig Morgan – “More Trucks Than Cars” (2.630) 37-39) Darius Rucker – “Wagon Wheel” (2.620) 37-39) The Farm – “Be Grateful” (2.500) 40-41) Craig Campbell – “Outta My Head” (2.260) 40-41) Love & Theft – “Runnin’ Out Of Air” (2.250) 42) Eric Church – “Like Jesus Does” (2.000) 43-44) Jake Owen – “Anywhere With You” (1.750) 43-44) Brett Eldredge – “Don’t Ya?” (1.740) 45-48) Montgomery Gentry – “I’ll Keep The Kids” (1.550) 45-48) Uncle Kracker – “Nobody’s Sad On A Saturday Night” (1.550) 45-48) Josh Turner – “Find Me A Baby” (1.510) 45-48) Easton Corbin – “All Over The Road” (1.470) 49-50) Charlie Worsham – “Could It Be?” (1.150) 49-50) Kix Brooks – “Moonshine Road” (1.150) 51-53) Train (featuring Ashley Monroe) – “Bruises” 51-53) Kip Moore – “Hey Pretty Girl” 51-53) Sarah Darling – “Home To Me” 54) Aaron Lewis – “Forever” 55) Eric Church – “Keep On” [NEW!]56-57) Sweetwater Rain – “Starshine” 56-57) Mumford & Sons – “I Will Wait” 58) Jason Aldean – “Night Train” [NEW!]59) Zac Brown Band – “Jump Right In” [NEW!]60) Big & Rich – “Party Like Cowboyz” Dropping Off: Justin Moore's "'Til My Last Day", Kip Moore's "Beer Money", and Taylor Swift's "All Too Well" Comments:Randy Houser picks up his first #1 after a pretty intense week of battling it out with Gary Allan and Jason Aldean both closing in. But Houser holds them off for the top spot. Meanwhile, Brad Paisley continues to move up a bit, but The Band Perry is closing in. Tim McGraw is also moving up nicely, and Dierks Bentley and Little Big Town will both hit the top 10 with Carrie Underwood and Hunter Hayes just a little behind. Kacey Musgraves continues her strong march toward the top 10. Blake Shelton, on the other hand, is rocketing up the chart and should be top 10 in no time. Casey James should crack the top 15 for the first time, with Lee Brice blasting into the top 20. George Strait should also pick up some ground, while Miranda Lambert and Florida Georgia Line surge into the top 30. Darius Rucker should enter the top 40, with Craig Campbell and Love & Theft likely battling it out for the last spot. Brett Eldredge, Montgomery Gentry, Kix Brooks, and Josh Turner continue to struggle while Jake Owen and Kip Moore continue their strong, early starts. Newcomer Charlie Worsham is also off to a great start, while Sarah Darling, Aaron Lewis, Sweetwater Rain, and Big & Rich continue to just hang in there. We have 3 debuts, all from unsolicited airplay--Eric Church's "Keep On", Jason Aldean's "Night Train", and Zac Brown Band's "Jump Right In".
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Post by Deleted on Jan 25, 2013 2:16:53 GMT -5
Some early thoughts for next week...we could see a bit of a housecleaning. Several songs are eligible to go recurrent. I don't expect all of them to leave, but here's a list of those that would leave if they can't re-bullet:
*Kenny Chesney - "El Cerrito Place" *Thomas Rhett - "Beer With Jesus" *Eli Young Band - "Say Goodnight" *Hayden Panetierre - "Telescope" *Kix Brooks - "Moonshine Road" *Aaron Lewis - "Forever" *Sweetwater Rain - "Starshine" *Big & Rich - "Party Like Cowboyz" *Mumford & Sons - "I Will Wait"
Chesney and Rhett will be gone, no doubt about that. I give EYB a 75% chance of leaving and that'll probably increase yet. The others--Hayden, Kix, Aaron, Sweetwater Rain, Big & Rich, and Mumford & Sons--are all eligible to leave because they've been without a bullet on each of the last 2 Billboard charts. I do think Hayden will leave...I'll give her only a 40% chance of staying. With Kix, it's probably 50-50 right now. Aaron Lewis and Sweetwater Rain look very likely to re-bullet and stay on the chart, and I actually think Mumford will bounce back and climb a few spots again. Big & Rich's PLC is almost certain to leave, now that they have a new single out.
Chesney & Rhett open up 2 spots, and I'll say the EYB, Hayden, and B+R leave for 5 open spots. Maybe Kix makes it 6. Lady A is the obvious debut (top 30 seems quite likely) and it definitely looks like Austin Webb and Chris Janson will debut as well. After that, it gets tough finding songs that want to debut. With a big handful of songs dropping off, this could be one of those weeks where only 200-250k is needed to crack the Billboard top 60. So for the other couple of spots, I'd probably go with Joel Crouse and maybe Chase Rice's "How She Rolls" (decent airplay in San Antonio), Blackberry Smoke's "Pretty Little Lie" (if it doesn't chart Monday then it will the following week), or The Lost Trailers' "Don't Give Up On Me". There's even a decent chance that Carrie Underwood's "Who Are You" or Eric Church's "Hungover & Hard Up" could sneak on (likely for just this week), as they're both getting some unsolicited airplay (both were just over 200k in the New & Active section on the last Billboard chart). Rachel Farley is another possibility since she's getting some airplay in Detroit.
It doesn't look like Lonestar, Big & Rich (Cheat On You), or the Josh Abbott Band will have enough audience to chart, at least not for Monday. Same goes for LeAnn's "Borrowed" and it doesn't look like Taylor's "All Too Well" is getting any airplay anymore at the moment. And it looks like every station on the planet passed on Tim & Colt's "Twisted".
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Kanenrá:ke
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Post by Kanenrá:ke on Jan 27, 2013 21:19:46 GMT -5
Any predictions this week Jhomes? :)
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Post by Deleted on Jan 27, 2013 21:37:18 GMT -5
Any predictions this week Jhomes? :) They'll be up within the next 30 minutes or so...just working on finalizing them! ;)
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Kanenrá:ke
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Post by Kanenrá:ke on Jan 27, 2013 21:38:08 GMT -5
Any predictions this week Jhomes? :) They'll be up within the next 30 minutes or so...just working on finalizing them! ;) Yay!
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Post by Deleted on Jan 27, 2013 22:25:35 GMT -5
Here are my top 60 predictions for tomorrow's 2/9 Billboard Country Airplay chart. The projected audience totals (in millions) are included for the top 50. Enjoy! :) 1) Gary Allan – “Every Storm (Runs Out Of Rain)” (38.370) 2) Jason Aldean (ft. Luke Bryan & Eric Church) – “The Only Way I Know” (36.850) 3) The Band Perry – “Better Dig Two” (32.270) 4) Randy Houser – “How Country Feels” (31.570) 5) Brad Paisley – “Southern Comfort Zone” (30.930) 6) Tim McGraw – “One Of Those Nights” (29.400) 7-8) Taylor Swift – “Begin Again” (26.020) 7-8) Dierks Bentley – “Tip It On Back” (25.790) 9) Little Big Town – “Tornado” (25.200) 10) Zac Brown Band – “Goodbye In Her Eyes” (last week) (24.120) 11) Carrie Underwood – “Two Black Cadillacs” (23.320) 12) Hunter Hayes – “Somebody’s Heartbreak” (22.830) 13) Blake Shelton – “Sure Be Cool If You Did” (18.430) 14) Kacey Musgraves – “Merry Go ‘Round” (17.920) 15) Lee Brice – “I Drive Your Truck” (16.700) 16) Casey James – “Crying On A Suitcase” (15.900) 17) Chris Cagle – “Let There Be Cowgirls” (14.700) 18) Thompson Square – “If I Didn’t Have You” (14.050) 19) Chris Young – “I Can Take It From There” (12.190) 20) George Strait – “Give It All We Got Tonight” (10.440) 21-23) Dustin Lynch – “She Cranks My Tractor” (9.240) 21-23) Toby Keith – “Hope On The Rocks” (8.940) 21-23) Miranda Lambert – “Mama’s Broken Heart” (8.920) 24-26) Florida Georgia Line – “Get Your Shine On” (6.890) 24-26) Brantley Gilbert – “More Than Miles” (6.620) 24-26) Lady Antebellum – “Downtown” [NEW!] (6.600) 27) Faith Hill – “American Heart” (last week) (5.910) 28) The Henningsens – “American Beautiful” (5.110) 29-31) Gloriana – “Can’t Shake You” (4.470) 29-31) Jana Kramer – “Whiskey” (4.330) 29-31) Rascal Flatts – “Changed” (4.330) 32) Kelly Clarkson (ft. Vince Gill) – “Don’t Rush” (3.880) 33) Jerrod Niemann – “Only God Could Love You More” (3.250) 34-35) Eric Church – “Like Jesus Does” (3.070) 34-35) Darius Rucker – “Wagon Wheel” (2.960) 36-38) Jake Owen – “Anywhere With You” (2.790) 36-38) Craig Morgan – “More Trucks Than Cars” (2.760) 36-38) Craig Campbell – “Outta My Head” (2.640) 39-40) The Farm – “Be Grateful” (last week) (2.240) 39-40) Love & Theft – “Runnin’ Out Of Air” (2.120) 41-43) Montgomery Gentry – “I’ll Keep The Kids” (1.920) 41-43) Brett Eldredge – “Don’t Ya?” (1.810) 41-43) Easton Corbin – “All Over The Road” (1.780) 44-45) Josh Turner – “Find Me A Baby” (1.450) 44-45) Uncle Kracker – “Nobody’s Sad On A Saturday Night” (1.450) 46-47) Kip Moore – “Hey Pretty Girl” (1.250) 46-47) Charlie Worsham – “Could It Be?” (1.240) 48) Train (ft. Ashley Monroe) – “Bruises” (1.130) 49-50) Kix Brooks – “Moonshine Road” (1.070) 49-50) Sarah Darling – “Home To Me” (1.050) 51) Aaron Lewis – “Forever” 52) Sweetwater Rain – “Starshine” 53-54) Mumford & Sons – “I Will Wait” 53-54) Jason Aldean – “Night Train” 55-56) Zac Brown Band – “Jump Right In” 55-56) Austin Webb – “It’s All Good” [NEW!]57-60) Eric Church – “Keep On” 57-60) Chase Rice - "How She Rolls" [NEW!]57-60) Joel Crouse - "If You Want Some" [NEW!]57-60) Chris Janson – “Better I Don’t” [NEW!]Debuts:- Lady Antebellum - "Downtown"
- Austin Webb - "It's All Good"
- Chase Rice - "How She Rolls"
- Joel Crouse - "If You Want Some"
- Chris Janson - "Better I Don't"
Honorable Mention: Eric Church's "Hungover & Hard Up", Carrie Underwood's "Who Are You", Big & Rich's "Cheat On You", and Blackberry Smoke's "Pretty Little Lie" Dropping Off:- Kenny Chesney - "El Cerrito Place" (#10 peak)
- Thomas Rhett - "Beer With Jesus" (#19 peak)
- Eli Young Band - "Say Goodnight" (#22 peak)
- Hayden Panettiere - "Telescope" (#33 peak)
- Big & Rich - "Party Like Cowboyz" (#57 peak)
Comments:Gary Allan has stormed to #1--his smash hit "Every Storm (Runs Out Of Rain)" will be officially crowned #1 tomorrow by Billboard. It'll be Gary's first #1 since "Nothing On But The Radio" crowned the chart way back in December 2004. Jason Aldean and friends will move up to #2 with enough audience that would've netted a #1 last week, but they couldn't quite pass Houser and Allan, and now lost out to Gary again this week. Can the ABC collaboration squeak out one more week of gains and hold Gary to just a lone week at the top? The Band Perry is looking strong and will hit the top 3--they're definitely next in line after Gary & Jason clear out. Brad Paisley is also still hanging in there but doesn't look nearly as strong as TBP or Tim McGraw. TBP passed Brad last week and Tim continues to close in. Taylor Swift, Dierks Bentley, and Little Big Town all continue to move up in the top 10 with Carrie Underwood and Hunter Hayes remaining just outside the top 10. Blake Shelton continues his hot start--so far, we haven't really been able to tell if his controversial comments will have a negative impact on his new single. Anyway, moving on...look for Lee Brice to hit the top 15 in stride, while George Strait inches into the top 20. Toby and Miranda are closing in on Dustin Lynch and the top 20, while Faith looks like she'll spend her last week on the chart. Lady A will easily have the Hot Shot Debut, with "Downtown" set to bow as high as #24, but more than likely at #25 or #26. That puts them in the company of Florida Georgia Line and Brantley Gilbert who have both had pretty solid weeks. Meanwhile, look for Rascal Flatts to battle it out with Jana Kramer and Gloriana for the top 30...it looks like only 2 of the 3 will be top 30 this week, with the other having to wait until next week. Jerrod Niemann has rebounded a bit this week and should pick up a few spots, but others are closing in, including Eric Church, Darius Rucker, and Jake Owen, who will all be surging into the top 40 this week. Craig Morgan, Craig Campbell, The Farm, Love & Theft, Brett Eldredge, Josh Turner, and Uncle Kracker all continue to really struggle. Montgomery Gentry has had a little bit better of a week and should move closer to the top 40, along with Easton Corbin. Kip Moore should blast into the top 50 and Charlie Worsham should also jump a few more spots. We should have at least 5 recurrents this week: Kenny Chesney, Thomas Rhett, the Eli Young Band, Hayden Panettiere, and Big & Rich will all be leaving the chart for sure. There's a possibility that Kix Brooks and Aaron Lewis could leave as well, but I think Aaron stands a pretty good chance at re-bulleting while it's gonna be a much closer call with Kix. For debuts, obviously we have Lady A way up in the top 30. Austin Webb's debut single for Streamsound Records, called "It's All Good", looks likely to finally enter the chart after going for adds back on December 17. After that, it's tough to find debuts. Normally, with 5+ songs leaving the chart, you'd think others were pushing hard to get in. But that's not really the case, despite tons of new singles available for play. My best guesses to fill in the final 3 spots would be Joel Crouse, Chase Rice, and Chris Janson. Chase is only getting airplay on 1 station, KAJA in San Antonio, but audience levels are gonna be low on tomorrow's chart, so the 300k that Chase is getting from KAJA looks like it'll be enough to get him in on this particular chart. Anywhere from 200-300k could get in. So while I do think Joel, Chase, and Chris are the most likely, there's a pretty good chance that a couple album cuts could get in. The same station--WXBQ in Johnson City, TN--has been playing both Eric Church's "Hungover & Hard Up" and Carrie Underwood's "Who Are You". The airplay there has amounted to just over 200k for both songs on a weekly basis, which normally isn't nearly enough to crack the Billboard top 60. But both tracks have a chance this week. Other possibilities would be Big & Rich's "Cheat On You" or Blackberry Smoke's "Pretty Little Lie".
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