carriekins
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Post by carriekins on Oct 22, 2012 13:39:05 GMT -5
Joey ... HA!
I think the increase we saw this morning was primarily the effect of the additional spins on CC-USA... the next couple of days should be the most telling as far as BA is concerned.
Personally, I don't think she'll hold on for a third week.
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.indulgecountry
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Post by .indulgecountry on Oct 22, 2012 14:26:50 GMT -5
I'd love to see this get a third week, but I'm not expecting it to happen. Still, she got her first multi-week charttopper in a long time, so that's plenty good in its own right.
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Deleted
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Post by Deleted on Oct 22, 2012 16:05:10 GMT -5
I give her less than a 5% chance at hanging on to a 3rd week at #1. Of course she gained today--because today's update is Sunday's numbers, and that was still on last week's Billboard chart (which comes out tonight), plus she got the countdown exposure yesterday. Lee will likely be within 500k on the Billboard Airplay chart tonight, and I see no way that Carrie can hold that lead. BA will most likely begin to level off and start to decline a bit more in the next 2-3 days.
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onebuffalo
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Post by onebuffalo on Oct 22, 2012 16:13:01 GMT -5
Debuts at #40 on Adult Pop Songs.
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peterca
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Post by peterca on Oct 22, 2012 20:24:44 GMT -5
Carrie's lead over Lee is slightly over 1 million on Billboard.
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Deleted
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Post by Deleted on Oct 22, 2012 22:19:06 GMT -5
Carrie's lead over Lee is slightly over 1 million on Billboard. Little bit bigger than I expected, but now that I think about it, it's probably because Carrie barely lost anything on Mediabase for the week (in terms of audience), and even the loss of just 2 or 3 spins on one of the Dial Global stations (where she was down just a bit) could've caused that slight audience drop, and of course that wouldn't show up on Billboard since those stations are MB-only. Couple that with the fact that Lee had the best ratio of Mediabase to Billboard audience in the entire top 10, IIRC. He was at more than 0.79, and it looks like his ratio wasn't quite as good this week. Still, I'd be surprised if Carrie hangs on for a 3rd week. It definitely looks like Lee is ready to take over the top spot.
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Marv
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Post by Marv on Oct 22, 2012 23:57:12 GMT -5
I don't think she'll get a third week at #1 although I'd be delirious if she did, since this is the most thought-provoking song to hit #1 at country radio in ages.
Carrie deserves tons of credit for recording a song with as much angst as this one not to mention a storyline which is anything but subtle and mundane in it for a format as PC as country radio has been for years, as Blake Shelton told the LA Times last year.
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rowdawg21
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Post by rowdawg21 on Oct 23, 2012 11:01:23 GMT -5
Still, I'd be surprised if Carrie hangs on for a 3rd week. It definitely looks like Lee is ready to take over the top spot. I'd be surprised too, but I just heard from my cousin that Arista is going for 3 weeks at #1. Apparently Curb is also trying to go for #1 this week, so it will be interesting to see how it plays out.
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Post by countrygirl918 on Oct 23, 2012 17:28:24 GMT -5
Interesting. I figured Arista would just be happy with 2 weeks at #1. Wonder why they're pushing so hard for a third week? Does it really make a huge difference?
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carrieidol1
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Post by carrieidol1 on Oct 23, 2012 17:34:59 GMT -5
Interesting. I figured Arista would just be happy with 2 weeks at #1. Wonder why they're pushing so hard for a third week? Does it really make a huge difference? They're hardly pushing at all... If they were, "Blown Away" would have had massively inflated gains last week, and would now be in a free-fall. Small and steady gains like these show that a song is more or less peaking and steadying on its own, without major support from the label.
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Deleted
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Post by Deleted on Oct 23, 2012 17:37:48 GMT -5
Interesting. I figured Arista would just be happy with 2 weeks at #1. Wonder why they're pushing so hard for a third week? Does it really make a huge difference? I don't think it makes as much of a difference nowadays as it did 5+ years ago. Then, songs could spend 4-6 weeks at #1, and you even saw the occasional instance where songs spent more than that at the top. Nowadays, sure, it can still be somewhat a testament to how strong the song is, but with the way that radio and the labels all kinda work things, most songs don't spend a lot of time at the top, as not long after they get there, the next song is ready to take its place. It seems more of a timing issue. We've seen plenty of 'big' songs get just a week at #1, and hardly any get more than 2 weeks. But I like the way Arista is playing things here. If you have a strong song and have the opportunity to get more weeks at the top, why not go for it? In the end, I don't think it's really gonna make much of a difference when it comes to moving singles or albums, but still...this way, they can say they had a 3-week #1 and not a 2-weeker. I'm not convinced they can hold off Lee, but it's nice to see that Arista wants this song to be recognized as a little bit bigger than a lot of the other big hits from this year. If Carrie gets 3 weeks, I still think Lee will be able to hit #1 for a week before Luke gets to the top, but yeah, it'll be interesting to watch it all play out. They're hardly pushing at all... If they were, "Blown Away" would have had massively inflated gains last week, and would now be in a free-fall. Small and steady gains like these show that a song is more or less peaking and steadying on its own, without major support from the label. I completely disagree. I think they are working the phones very hard to keep BA up there. When songs hit #1, they drop faster than this. And BA can't have mega gains...it's already about as high as songs get. More than 38.5 million AI's on Billboard Airplay...I haven't seen a song get that high in audience for probably 8 or 9 months. She's pretty much hit that ceiling, and when songs get there, they drop a lot faster than BA has been. I definitely believe that Arista is really working for that 3rd week at #1 here.
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carrieidol1
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Post by carrieidol1 on Oct 23, 2012 17:46:37 GMT -5
^I doubt it... But I see your point, there really isn't a way of knowing. I'm just used to seeing majorly inflated gains as a song rises (as an indication of major label support). This song hardly saw any of that. Its gains were steady and seemingly natural. Now that it's maxed out, so to speak, it obviously cannot continue to gain that much - but I find it hard to believe the label is pushing for three weeks when there are two songs making massive gains right behind it. They also have other top 10 songs to move on to. Then again, by the looks of it Carrie will be performing "Blown Away" at the CMAs, so I guess that could be an indication that they're still actively pushing the song.
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Post by countrybamafan on Oct 23, 2012 17:49:48 GMT -5
Of course, I would be thrilled with 3 weeks at #1, but I am already more than satisfied with 2 weeks! Having said that, I do like Lee's song and want it to hit #1 too. I saw some show on GAC (I have Dish Network so I only get GAC every once in a while as a free preview for a month) showing country artists going to work 9 to 5 jobs. Gretchen was a waitress at Waffle House, and Lee went to work with his dad's construction company. I really enjoyed the show, and Lee seems like a great guy who came from a great family. At the end, Lee said to his dad, "Maybe if I get a few more #1's, you can retire." So, after seeing that (and the fact I like the song), I want Hard To Love to go #1. I wish Jason's song hadn't stayed at #1 so long, but oh well.
I'm going to pull for Blown Away to get one final week and then Hard To Love next week (Hopefully he can hold off Luke), but I'm not seeing Blown Away holding on, especially not on Billboard (Maybe there will be a split #1 with Blown Away #1 on Mediabase and Hard To Love #1 on Billboard).
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Deleted
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Post by Deleted on Oct 23, 2012 17:58:47 GMT -5
^I doubt it... But I see your point, there really isn't a way of knowing. I'm just used to seeing majorly inflated gains as a song rises (as an indication of major label support). This song hardly saw any of that. Its gains were steady and seemingly natural. Now that it's maxed out, so to speak, it obviously cannot continue to gain that much - but I find it hard to believe the label is pushing for three weeks when there are two songs making massive gains right behind it. They also have other top 10 songs to move on to. Then again, by the looks of it Carrie will be performing "Blown Away" at the CMAs, so I guess that could be an indication that they're still actively pushing the song. Well, there are ads out in Country Aircheck saying it's "Still #1...and still growing". We've seen this before. I don't work for radio, but I absolutely believe they are working for this. BA didn't need those sudden huge gains to get to #1...it rose solidly and steadily. And now it has maxed out. There really isn't any audience left to gain. Nearly every single radio station has BA spinning as many times as they can possibly give it, so I'm sure that some of the stations are itching to drop it just a few spins, to make room for other songs...but Arista's people are definitely working to hold it up there. Trust me, if we see BA holding level for the next few days, that is because of effort on Arista's part. I mean, it's already kinda obvious...a full 7 days ago, BA had 49.790 million on Mediabase, and today, it's at 49.760. It's not falling. I think it's obvious that they're working hard to keep it up there. The reason it's not showing any big gains, is because there's really not any more to gain. Plus, in the 2 weeks before BA hit #1, it was already at high audience numbers...numbers that in other weeks, might've been high enough for the song to already be at #1. So you can see that, when the song first hit #1, there already wasn't much left to gain, because it was well over 38 million on Billboard, and most of the time #1 songs only peak in the 36-37 million range. Both of Carrie's weeks have been over 38 million, and she's still not dropping. When songs hit #1, they don't hold level this long. In the years I've been following the charts, I've only seen this happen a few times, and each of those other times, it was for songs getting 3-4 weeks at #1. Arista is going for that 3rd week...not sure if they'll get it, or maybe they can get it on Mediabase, but the extra day in the Billboard week could allow Lee to get the BB #1. We'll have to wait and see.
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jenglisbe
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Post by jenglisbe on Oct 23, 2012 19:41:34 GMT -5
I'm interested in its year-end position. There are still 4-5 weeks in the chart year left, so most of the run of "Blown Away" will count. The year-end Billboard chart will use the old methodology this time for consistency.
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joey2002
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Post by joey2002 on Oct 23, 2012 21:44:26 GMT -5
Interesting. I figured Arista would just be happy with 2 weeks at #1. Wonder why they're pushing so hard for a third week? Does it really make a huge difference? 3 weeks are better than 2; 4 weeks are better than 3; 5 weeks are better than 4... ;)
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Post by countrygirl918 on Oct 23, 2012 22:02:03 GMT -5
Interesting. I figured Arista would just be happy with 2 weeks at #1. Wonder why they're pushing so hard for a third week? Does it really make a huge difference? 3 weeks are better than 2; 4 weeks are better than 3; 5 weeks are better than 4... ;) Of course, but it also takes resources to push the song, so is the payoff worth it? I doubt BA will hold the #1 position on Billboard this week, but I would like to see a split. BA #1 on Mediabase and HTL #1 on Billboard. I could see that happening.
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Post by countrybamafan on Oct 23, 2012 23:33:46 GMT -5
After thinking about it, I wonder if Arista is pushing BA so hard because they don't want to release the third single officially until January. We are only a week away from November. At the earliest, the third single would be released by mid to late November. However, I think Blown Away is that kind of song that will still get a lot of recurrent airplay for a while. So, maybe Arista wants Blown Away to have the maximum impact on country so that some of that may bleed over to the Hot AC and Pop formats, which will help carry sales through the end of the year.
I may be wrong, but after thinking about it, I would think that if Arista wanted to push the third single before the end of the year, they would not be pushing for more weeks for Blown Away and release the third single really soon so that it would have enough impact on sales.
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Zazie
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Post by Zazie on Oct 23, 2012 23:52:48 GMT -5
I'm interested in its year-end position. There are still 4-5 weeks in the chart year left, so most of the run of "Blown Away" will count. The year-end Billboard chart will use the old methodology this time for consistency. I'm assuming Billboard will use the airplay totals for their year-end list -- no reason to change it for this year. At the moment, BA is #41 for the year (with a total of 345 million impressions -- for context, her earlier single this year is at #25 with 438 million, and to reach the top 10 requires 477 million) and it has only 3 weeks left to add to that total. It could finish in the neighborhood of #22, or even a bit higher if it continues to refuse to freefall.
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Deleted
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Post by Deleted on Oct 24, 2012 0:15:28 GMT -5
2 weeks at #1 is all I was hoping for. Anything after this would simply be extra icing on the cake. I want to see this promoted to Pop now. Don't throw it under Cool New Music on AllAccess and not do anything with it, Arista.
Typo pointed out earlier on today in the Carrie thread that See You Again has three listings on different radio stations' Mediabase request forms. I doubt that it'll be a single, but is that normal for a random album track like SYA to be on 3 different radio request forms?
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Deleted
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Post by Deleted on Oct 24, 2012 0:40:15 GMT -5
^I don't think it's normal at all for a random album track to be on the Mediabase Request pages. If WUSN starts playing it, SYA will definitely chart on Billboard Airplay. They're the ones that got David Nail's cover of "Someone Like You" into the top 50.
I would guess that those 3 stations are planning on testing the song. Doesn't necessarily mean it's the next single (and I still have my doubts it'll be released at all), but it'll be great even to see it chart from unsolicited airplay. I know KMLE here in Phoenix has been playing some random songs, including Eric Church's "Keep On" and Mumford & Sons' "I Will Wait" (as many as 30 times a week in both cases), and both of those songs are on their Mediabase Request page..
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Typo
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Post by Typo on Oct 24, 2012 1:24:53 GMT -5
I was able to look for myself earlier today and found "See You Again" listed on all of the following stations' request forms: WUSN WYNK KATC WWYZ KSOP WIWF KQFC KTEX WCTO WIOV WMSI WTQR KITX
Not sure if there's any meaning to this but I figured it was worth noting, at least.
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Marv
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Post by Marv on Oct 24, 2012 1:39:15 GMT -5
We'll undoubtedly get a new single from Carrie next month; that is a mortal lock.
Some charttoppers tend to have the bottom drop out of them after peaking; the top three in that dubious category are Ms. Swift (far and away the worst), Blake Shelton & Rascal Flatts.
The race for the most-played female artist next year between carrie, Miranda & taylor is going to be a reral donnybrook, so I can't blame Arista for not letting this stellar tune go away at this time.
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Deleted
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Post by Deleted on Oct 24, 2012 1:50:19 GMT -5
That list of SYA add-ons has me so excited. I want to see it released so badly, but I don't think it will be. We haven't gotten a single live performance of the song and she's not even singing it on tour. However, that list seems like more than a normal amount of stations that are "testing it out on radio," so something could end up coming out of this...
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Deleted
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Post by Deleted on Oct 24, 2012 2:33:26 GMT -5
Thanks for sharing, Typo. I had only seen the 3 stations mentioned in the Blown Away album thread.
It's really...interesting, to say the least. I am starting to wonder if maybe they do plan on releasing it? Because you just don't typically see that, where those Mediabase Request pages have non-singles on them.
Really, I like all the options that are on the table (for the 3rd single). Pretty much the only songs I don't want to see as singles are "Forever Changed" (too slow, and obviously isn't in contention anyway) and "Nobody Ever Told You" (one of the few 'lowlights' on the album, imo). I definitely have my favorites, but really, I think pretty much any of the songs could work. From the beginning, "See You Again" has trailed only "Blown Away" as my favorite song on the album. I just never really saw it as a frontrunner for release as a single. I still think "Two Black Cadillacs" is a must-release at some point, and I really love both "Good In Goodbye" and "Wine After Whiskey". "Cupid's Got A Shotgun" is undeniably country, and I think radio listeners would definitely like the sentiment behind songs like "Do You Think About Me" and "Thank God For Hometowns", though the latter isn't one of my personal favorites, as I find it a bit too cliched (it's far from horrible, though).
But I will be thrilled with SYA as the 3rd single, if that's their choice. If it's not, I'm sure I'll like whatever else they pick as well. DYTAM, GIG, WAW...they would all be excellent choices.
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desertfloods
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Post by desertfloods on Oct 24, 2012 4:37:47 GMT -5
I had written off SYA since it was never performed anywhere.... but if it is the next single, I don't have a problem with that at all. It's one of my favorites on the album. DYTAM is still the best choice for single #3 though. I would imagine that if they do pick SYA over DYTAM, it might be because they want to release more Carrie co-writes as singles. Especially after BA.
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.indulgecountry
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"You left a mark on my face // And brought a dozen red flags in a vase"
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Post by .indulgecountry on Oct 24, 2012 8:39:34 GMT -5
Not particularly fond of SYA, though the album has worse single options on it, so I guess it could be worse. I'd much rather have DYTAM next though.
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jptexas
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Post by jptexas on Oct 24, 2012 8:51:44 GMT -5
If by some reason, SYA is released, I would not have a problem with it. It sure can connect with just about anyone. It would go right along with Carrie's continuing effort to release songs that have a spiritual theme(JTTW)(TH). Besides, it has a really nice production and hook. But, eventually, TBC will have to be released. IMO, it could be the biggest hit out of BA.
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bornfearless2000
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Post by bornfearless2000 on Oct 24, 2012 9:17:18 GMT -5
I really don't mind with SYA being the third single. (even though i'm sure it won't).
SYA has great hooks and i think the melody is flawless.
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carrieidol1
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Post by carrieidol1 on Oct 24, 2012 9:37:57 GMT -5
Are those stations Typo listed Country stations?
What I would love to see is SYA released at Pop, and then a different song (TBC or DYTAM) to Country. I do wonder what the deal with SYA is though, I wouldn't terribly mind its Country release, but I think there are better Country singles... Then again, they could be planning to go 5-6 singles deep, which would still leave room for most of the other singles we all want, i.e. "Two Black Cadillacs", "Do You Think About Me", "One Way Ticket", "Whine After Whiskey", generally said, of course.
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