Billboard Hot 100: 10/13/12

[Lozzy]

Links: 10/6/12, 9/29/12, 9/22/12, 9/15/12, 9/8/12

---

9/27 airplay updates:

1. PINK - Blow Me (One Last Kiss): 146.962 (+ 0.884)
2. TAYLOR SWIFT - We Are Never Ever Getting…: 126.403 (+ 0.680)
3. MAROON 5 - One More Night: 125.903 (+ 2.362)
4. ELLIE GOULDING - Lights: 120.430 (− 1.497)
5. JUSTIN BIEBER - As Long As You Love Me: 116.151 (+ 0.291)
6. NEON TREES - Everybody Talks: 111.646 (− 0.056)
7. FLO RIDA - Whistle: 111.532 (− 1.776)
8. KATY PERRY - Wide Awake: 107.316 (− 0.925)
9. FUN. - Some Nights: 104.101 (+ 0.661)
10. OWL CITY & CARLY RAE JEPSEN - Good Time: 98.502 (+ 0.236)
11. DEMI LOVATO - Give Your Heart A Break: 88.514 (− 2.804)
12. GOTYE - Somebody That I Used To Know: 86.903 (− 0.895)
13. ALEX CLARE - Too Close: 83.079 (+ 0.887)
14. NICKI MINAJ - Pound The Alarm: 82.323 (− 0.459)
15. CHRIS BROWN - Don’t Wake Me Up: 80.803 (− 0.013)
16. MAROON 5 - Payphone f/Wiz Khalifa: 76.693 (− 0.865)
17. RIHANNA - Where Have You Been: 72.292 (− 1.641)
18. CARLY RAE JEPSEN - Call Me Maybe: 71.105 (− 0.818)
19. DAVID GUETTA - Titanium f/Sia: 69.976 (− 1.444)
20. JASON ALDEAN - Take A Little Ride: 62.411 (+ 0.434)

MIGUEL - Adorn: 61.457 (− 0.192)
NE-YO - Let Me Love You: 57.591 (+ 1.062)
DUSTIN LYNCH - Cowboys And Angels: 57.429 (+ 0.289)
JANA KRAMER - Why Ya Wanna: 55.871 (+ 0.040)
CARRIE UNDERWOOD - Blown Away: 54.671 (+ 0.260)
TRAIN - 50 Ways To Say Goodbye: 46.351 (+ 0.252)
DAVID GUETTA - I Can Only Imagine f/C. Brown: 43.431 (− 0.868)
PSY - Gangnam Style: 37.666 (+ 1.533)
ENRIQUE IGLESIAS - Finally Found You f/S. Adams: 37.116 (+ 0.103)
PHILLIP PHILLIPS - Home: 34.466 (+ 0.436)
KARMIN - Hello: 30.334 (− 0.446)
KANYE WEST - Clique f/Big Sean & JAY-Z: 28.736 (+ 0.795)
BEYONCE - Dance For You: 25.134 (− 0.231)
ONEREPUBLIC - Feel Again: 24.890 (+ 0.261)
USHER - Numb: 24.487 (+ 0.585)
RIHANNA - Diamonds: 22.512 (+ 22.512)
ONE DIRECTION - Live While We’re Young: 21.261 (+ 3.206)
CHRISTINA AGUILERA - Your Body: 20.691 (+ 0.521)
KE$HA - Die Young: 17.386 (+ 3.507)
ALICIA KEYS - Girl On Fire: 17.022 (+ 0.321)
MUMFORD & SONS - I Will Wait: 14.041 (+ 0.375)
MUSE - Madness: 12.704 (+ 0.112)

Source

[Lozzy]

ONE DIRECTION - Live While We’re Young: 21.261 (+ 3.206)

[hitseeker.]

Wow Rihanna! :O I'm already afraid of the 8th day update

[dlostfan]

This week is gonna be pretty interesting. OMN and GN seems to be in a very close battle for #1, and the new songs are gonna make the rest of the Top-10 interesting.

[Me. I Am l!nk!nfan815...]

Sept 27, 2012 7:07:02 GMT -5 hitseeker. said:

Wow Rihanna! :O I'm already afraid of the 8th day update

Was the Clear Channel Deal just for yesterday or is it the whole week?

[Lozzy]

Sept 27, 2012 8:33:56 GMT -5 Me. I Am l!nk!nfan815... said:

Sept 27, 2012 7:07:02 GMT -5 hitseeker. said:

Wow Rihanna! :O I'm already afraid of the 8th day update

Was the Clear Channel Deal just for yesterday or is it the whole week?

I'm not sure if there was one, but whatever it was definitely was just for yesterday. With roughly ⅓ of the day gone it's only gotten 41 pop spins thus far today, compared to 1,075 yesterday.

[HolidayGuy]

Likely a one-day deal. But, in its favor is that it debuted on a Wednesday, the first day of the tracking week.

[NeRD]

RIHANNA - Diamonds: 22.512 (+ 22.512)
KE$HA - Die Young: 17.386 (+ 3.507)


Let the games begin. :)

[chartfreak]

I don't understand why some of these artist need deals.

[areyoureadytojump]

They don't do one week deals. Why do people keep asking?

[HolidayGuy]

Not really a matter of "need"- it just raises awareness right out of the gate. Like I said in another thread, we don't know if there was any such thing in the past, because it wasn't reported on- and I don't think there was one big conglomerate like Clear Channel that owned so many stations.

[popstop]

^ This is the biggest reason I'm glad online streaming is a component of the charts. Companies like Clear Channel have so much influence on the airplay component.

[Me. I Am l!nk!nfan815...]

Sept 27, 2012 10:02:58 GMT -5 areyoureadytojump said:

They don't do one week deals. Why do people keep asking?

People keep asking cause not everyone knows, jeez.

[Verisimilitude]

Sept 27, 2012 10:13:08 GMT -5 popstop said:

^ This is the biggest reason I'm glad online streaming is a component of the charts. Companies like Clear Channel have so much influence on the airplay component.

But radio is like a hare compared to how slow and dull the streaming chart is.

[Living Legend]

Taylor should get her 12th Top 10 this week with "Begin Again".

[nivekwriter1]

Billboard prediction 10/13/2012 so far...

Because the prediction had a lot of mistakes I added streaming. The prediction is:
- 48% downloads
- 37% airplay
- 15% streaming

Here's a prediction of the Billboard chart.
It's made with the iTunes data and airplay data.

# / artist / song / total points this week / how much extra or less points did todays update had than yesterday (from tommorow)

1. Maroon 5 - One More Night: 166.11
2. PSY - Gangnam Style: 156.43
3. Fun. - Some Nights: 149.84
4. P!nk - Blow Me (One Last Kiss): 139.72
5. Taylor Swift - We Are Never Getting Back Together: 138.39
6. Justin Bieber - As Long As You Love Me: 137.71
7. Flo Rida - Whistle: 131.17
8. Taylor Swift - Begin Again: 130.76
9. Alex Clare - Too Close: 124.93
10. Neon Trees - Everybody Talks: 124.41
11. Ellie Goulding - Lights: 114.25
12. Katy Perry - Wide Awake: 105.71
13. Owl City & Carly Rae Jepsen - Good Time: 104.11
14. Rihanna - Diamonds: 100.62
15. Chris Brown - Don't Wake Me Up: 95.51
16. Gotye ft. Kimbra - Somebody That I Used To Know: 95.17
17. Carly Rae Jepsen - Call Me Maybe: 93.23
18. Ke$ha - Die Young: 92.26
17. Demi Lovato - Give Your Heart A Break: 88.22
20. Nicki Minaj - Pound The Alarm: 86.82

Debuts, High rises and popular songs outside top 20:

25. Enrique Iglesias ft. Sammy Adams - Finally Found You: 71.56
28. Train - 50 Ways To Say Goodbye: 67.43
33. The Lumineers - Ho Hey: 56.49
35. Kayne West Jay-Z & Big Sean - Clique: 52.84

Bottom 50:

65. Alicia Keys - Girl On Fire: 30.35
66. Karmin - Hello: 29.31
68. Christina Aguilera - Your Body: 28.34
86. Usher - Numb: 17.85
88. One Direction - Live While We're Young: 16.11

Highlights:
- Blow Me is already weeks on the chart but is still rising fast!
- Ke$ha's and Rihanna's songs now are between #10 - #20 but probably will come in the top 10 of the predictions tommorow or in 2 days.
- One Direction's new song won't will be released as download and on streaming until 30 September/1 October. This means that it only can get points from the airplay. One Direction won't will be extremely high this week, probably next week.

[Lozzy]

Sept 27, 2012 13:56:05 GMT -5 nivekwriter1 said:

The prediction is:
- 48% downloads
- 37% downloads
- 15% streaming

No airplay? ;)

[nivekwriter1]

Sept 27, 2012 14:08:21 GMT -5 Lozzy said:

Sept 27, 2012 13:56:05 GMT -5 nivekwriter1 said:

The prediction is:
- 48% downloads
- 37% downloads
- 15% streaming

No airplay? ;)

A mistake in the post. It's 37% airplay

[d.t.m]

Sept 27, 2012 10:04:21 GMT -5 HolidayGuy said:

Not really a matter of "need"- it just raises awareness right out of the gate. Like I said in another thread, we don't know if there was any such thing in the past, because it wasn't reported on- and I don't think there was one big conglomerate like Clear Channel that owned so many stations.

Now that you mention it, I wonder if Janet's All For You had one.

[jenglisbe]

Sept 27, 2012 12:49:54 GMT -5 Living Legend said:

Taylor should get her 12th Top 10 this week with "Begin Again".

How many Top 40 songs will that give her? It won't be too long before she has that record.

[areyoureadytojump]

Solo women to make the most appearances in the Hot 100's 54-year history:

73, Aretha Franklin
56, Madonna
56, Dionne Warwick
53, Connie Francis
48, Brenda Lee
48, Taylor Swift
44, Mariah Carey
42, Nicki Minaj
41, Barbra Streisand
40, Mary J. Blige
40, Diana Ross

Through the 9/22 Hot 100

[jenglisbe]

Swift will likely be #2 on that list once the album is released. Crazy.

[SPRΞΞ]

Luckily that chart doesn't really mean much since the charting rules have changed a million times.

[fridayteenage]

With 3 more promo singles, she only needs 6 album tracks to chart to do it.

Fearless had exactly 6 chart on opening week. So it'll probably be around there - she's bigger now, but she also has to contend with having zero streaming and airplay against songs with streaming and airplay points.

I believe she'll also be #2 on the list of females w/solo single releases that hit the T40, after Queen Madonna.

[Deleted]

Ke$ha, Rihanna, Taylor Swift Set For Strong Hot 100 Debuts

September 27, 2012 | By Gary Trust and Keith Caulfield


As fourth quarter brings its annual bounty of superstar releases (just in time for the busy holiday shopping season), three songs help usher in this year's onslaught, as Taylor Swift, Ke$ha and Rihanna are set to enter next week's Billboard Hot 100 with new singles.

Swift serves up "Begin Again," the second single from her fourth studio album "Red," due Oct. 22. (Lead track "We Are Never Ever Getting Back Together" became her first Hot 100 No. 1, leading the list for three weeks.) Ke$ha's "Die Young" previews her sophomore full-length, "Warrior," due Dec. 4, while Rihanna's "Diamonds" introduces her seventh set, due this fall.

Industry sources say that Swift's "Begin" could sell 300,000 downloads or more by the end of the tracking week on Sunday (Sept. 30). Ke$ha's "Young" could start with more than 200,000, as could Rihanna's "Diamonds." Predicting the latter song's sales is a bit harder for industry forecasters than the first two, as it was released on a Wednesday instead of Tuesday (the more common label practice). "Diamonds," thus, will launch on next week's Hot 100 and Digital Songs charts with one day less of a sales sum than its competitors.

By comparison, Rihanna's "We Found Love," the first single from her last studio album, "Talk That Talk," bowed at No. 7 on Digital Songs (Oct. 8, 2011) with 117,000 sold, according to Nielsen SoundScan. (That song hit retail on a Thursday). "Found" then built steadily in weekly sales, reaching No. 1 on Digital Songs four weeks later. One week after that, it began its 10-week rule on the Hot 100.

As for Ke$ha, the last time she introduced a brand new single to the market was late 2010 with "We R Who We R," the lead track from her "Cannibal" EP. "We R" crashed Digital Songs at No. 1 (Nov. 13, 2010) with 280,000 sold and simultaneously debuted at No. 1 on the Hot 100.

Swift, meanwhile, already experienced the buzz of a first single from her forthcoming album, as "Never" soared to No. 1 on the Hot 100 (from an airplay-only-fueled No. 72 debut) fueled by 623,000 downloads sold in its first week, according to SoundScan. The arrival set the record for the highest one-week digital sales total by a female artist.

RADIO'S ALSO READY
Swift, Ke$ha and Rihanna's new songs are also receiving warm welcomes at
radio.
As of this posting, "Begin," Swift's new country (but not pop) radio single, already ranks at No. 39 on the building Country Songs chart with 2 million in first-week audience, according to Nielsen BDS. (While "Never" falls 15-21 on the building country list, the song remains gaining on the all-format Radio Songs building chart at No. 3, thanks to continued rising pop and adult crossover support.)

Rihanna's "Diamonds" is already shining extremely brightly on the building Radio Songs chart, showing at No. 6 with 22 million in all-format audience, according to BDS. Its first-day airplay was aided by promotional airplay on participating pop, rhythm and adult pop Clear Channel Media and Entertainment stations, so, following that initial splash, it isn't likely to maintain a top five rank when the Radio Songs chart is finalized next Wednesday (Oct. 3). It will still, however, make a grand entrance on the survey.

Ke$ha's "Young," meanwhile, is trending at No. 64 on the building Radio Songs chart with 6 million in audience. (Swift's "Begin" is not yet showing among the top 100 titles on the building Radio Songs survey.)

PREDICTING THE HOT 100
How high can Swift, Rihanna and Ke$ha's new singles launch on the Hot 100 next week? And, will any of them be strong enough to compete for No. 1?

Maroon 5's "One More Night" has spent the past two weeks at No. 1, while PSY's "Gangnam Style" blasts 11-2 this week, powered by a 4-1 coronation on Digital Songs (301,000 downloads sold, up 60%, according to SoundScan). With "Gangnam" expected to sell 275,000-300,000 by the end of the sales tracking week, and it trending at No. 32 on the building Radio Songs chart, it would seem that "Night" (205,000 sold this past week and showing at No. 2 on Radio Songs so far this week) and "Gangnam" will battle for the Hot 100's top spot next week.

Most likely, Swift's "Begin" will begin in the Hot 100's top 10, with Rihanna's "Diamonds" and Ke$ha's "Young" arriving in the top 20.

Highlights of the refreshed Hot 100, Digital Songs and Radio Songs charts will post on Wednesday (Oct. 3) on Billboard.com, with the Hot 100 to be unveiled in its entirety the following day.

Read more at www.billboard.biz/bbbiz/industry/digital-and-mobile/ke-ha-rihanna-taylor-swift-set-for-strong-1007962732.story#WUFs52qdlEp5zGki.99

[fridayteenage]

So they're expecting Queen Taylor top the digital charts with her 3rd-best opening week. Whoo.

[cesarams]

FRIDAY'S UPDATE:
TOP 20:

1. PINK – Blow Me (One Last Kiss): 147.058 (+ 0.096)
2. MAROON 5 – One More Night: 128.018 (+ 2.115) ▲
3. TAYLOR SWIFT – We Are Never Ever Getting…: 126.634 (+ 0.231) ▼
4. ELLIE GOULDING – Lights: 118.563 (- 1.867)
5. JUSTIN BIEBER – As Long As You Love Me: 117.712 (+ 1.561)
6. NEON TREES – Everybody Talks: 111.619 (- 0.027)
7. FLO RIDA – Whistle: 109.729 (- 1.803)
8. KATY PERRY – Wide Awake: 106.635 (- 0.681)
9. FUN. – Some Nights: 105.075 (+ 0.974)
10. OWL CITY & CARLY RAE JEPSEN – Good Time: 98.856 (+ 0.354)
11. GOTYE – Somebody That I Used To Know: 86.050 (- 0.853) ▲
12. DEMI LOVATO – Give Your Heart A Break: 85.839 (- 2.675) ▼
13. ALEX CLARE – Too Close: 84.391 (+ 1.312)
14. NICKI MINAJ – Pound The Alarm: 81.827 (- 0.496)
15. CHRIS BROWN – Don’t Wake Me Up: 81.001 (+ 0.198)
16. MAROON 5 – Payphone f/Wiz Khalifa: 75.886 (- 0.807)
17. RIHANNA – Where Have You Been: 70.517 (- 1.775)
18. CARLY RAE JEPSEN – Call Me Maybe: 70.413 (- 0.692)
19. DAVID GUETTA – Titanium f/Sia: 68.930 (- 1.046)
20. JASON ALDEAN – Take A Little Ride: 62.581 (+ 0.170)

OTHERS:

MIGUEL – Adorn: 62.066 (+ 0.609)
NE-YO – Let Me Love You: 59.054(+ 1.463)
DUSTIN LYNCH – Cowboys And Angels: 57.565 (+ 0.136)
JANA KRAMER – Why Ya Wanna: 55.833 (- 0.038)
CARRIE UNDERWOOD – Blown Away: 54.993 (+ 0.322)
TRAIN – 50 Ways To Say Goodbye: 46.354 (+ 0.003)
DAVID GUETTA - I Can Only Imagine f/C. Brown: 43.321 (- 0.110)
PSY – Gangnam Style: 39.391 (+ 1.725)
ENRIQUE IGLESIAS – Finally Found You f/S. Adams: 37.420 (+ 0.304)
PHILLIP PHILLIPS – Home: 34.850 (+ 0.384)
KANYE WEST – Clique f/Big Sean & JAY-Z: 29.857 (+ 1.121)
RIHANNA – Diamonds: 26.384 (+ 3.872)
ERIC CHURCH – Creepin': 25.994
ONEREPUBLIC – Feel Again: 25.301 (+ 0.411)
BEYONCE – Dance For You: 24.961 (- 0.173)
USHER – Numb: 24.487 (+ 0.585)
KE$HA – Die Young: 22.039 (+ 4.653)[/color]
CHRISTINA AGUILERA – Your Body: 21.464 (+ 0.773)
ONE DIRECTION – Live While We’re Young: 17.213 (- 4.048)
ALICIA KEYS – Girl On Fire: 17.043 (+ 0.021)
MUMFORD & SONS – I Will Wait: 14.308 (+ 0.267)
MUSE – Madness: 12.466 (- 0.238)
THE WANTED – I Found You: 1.469
PINK – Try: 0.960

[nivekwriter1]

Billboard prediction 10/13/2012 so far...

Because the prediction had a lot of mistakes I added streaming. The prediction is:
- 48% downloads
- 37% airplay
- 15% streaming

Here's a prediction of the Billboard chart.
It's made with the iTunes data and airplay data.

# / artist / song / total points this week / how much extra or less points did todays update had than yesterday (from tommorow)

1. Maroon 5 - One More Night: 351.55
2. PSY - Gangnam Style: 323.38
3. Fun. - Some Nights: 319.79
4. Taylor Swift - We Are Never Getting Back Together: 300.94
5. Justin Bieber - As Long As You Love Me: 287.37
6. P!nk - Blow Me (One Last Kiss): 283.47
7. Flo Rida - Whistle: 281.23
8. Alex Clare - Too Close: 262.25
9. Taylor Swift - Begin Again: 261.42
10. Neon Trees - Everybody Talks: 254.31
11. Ellie Goulding - Lights: 231.35
12. Rihanna - Diamonds: 219.04
13. Ke$ha - Die Young: 217.76
14. Owl City & Carly Rae Jepsen - Good Time: 214.04
15. Katy Perry - Wide Awake: 213.71
16. Chris Brown - Don't Wake Me Up: 196.81
17. Gotye ft. Kimbra - Somebody That I Used To Know: 194.68
18. Carly Rae Jepsen - Call Me Maybe: 193.38
19. Hunter Hayes - Wanted: 179.09
20. Nicki Minaj - Pound The Alarm: 177.68

Debuts, High rises and popular songs outside top 20:

25. Enrique Iglesias ft. Sammy Adams - Finally Found You: 158.47
28. Train - 50 Ways To Say Goodbye: 140.90
33. The Lumineers - Ho Hey: 119.41
35. Kayne West Jay-Z & Big Sean - Clique: 112.61

Bottom 50:

62. Christina Aguilera - Your Body: 66.33
66. OneRepblic - Feel Again: 58.82
75. Mumford & Sons - Babel: 47.30
82. Usher - Numb: 36.13
83. One Direction - Live While We're Young: 35.90
97. P!nk - Try: 24.04

Highlights:
- Blow Me is already weeks on the chart but is still rising fast!
- Ke$ha's and Rihanna's songs now are between #10 - #20 but probably will come in the top 10 of the predictions tommorow.
- Also Taylor's new song is doing well.
- One Direction's new song won't will be released as download and on streaming until 30 September/1 October. This means that it only can get points from the airplay. One Direction won't will be extremely high this week, probably next week.

[Rocky]

It's just a guess at some numbers, but it have to close if something won't happen with sales or on radio.
I don't want to steal the estimates from nivekwriter, just tried how it works.

The first number is the roughly Audience for next week if the current trend continues (for Diamonds and Die Young counted in the 8th day effect).
The second number is the sales number (tbh it was the hardest part).
And the third number is the 6% of streaming.

1. Gangnam Style - 30M + 290k + 45str = 365
2. Begin Again - 10M + 335k + 0str = 345
3. OMN - 84 M + 200k + 46str = 330
4. Some Nights - 67M + 155k + 46str = 268
5. WANEGBT - 77M + 185k + 0str = 262
6. Die Young - 23M + 230k + 5str = 258
7. ALAYLM - 76M + 115k + 40str = 231
8. Diamonds - 18M + 205k + 5str = 228
9. Blow Me (OLK) - 90M + 100k + 35str = 225
10. Whistle - 58M + 120k + 40str = 218
11. Too Close - 55M + 123k + 36str = 214
12. Good Time - 61M + 94k + 39str = 194
13. Finally Found You - 24M + 160k + 9str = 193
14. Everybody Talks - 65M + 71k + 35str = 171
15. Wanted - 30M + 102k + 27str = 159
16. Lights - 65M + 43k + 43str = 151
17. Don't Wake Me Up - 50M + 70k + 31str = 151
18. CMM - 40M + 58k + 44str = 142
19. Wide Awake - 60M + 50k + 28str = 138
20. Payphone - 42M + 48k + 36str = 126

Others:
STIUTK - 48M + 38k + 39str = 125
Take A Little Ride - 38M + 70k + 12str = 120
Let Me Love You - 41M + 68k + 10str = 119
Pound The Alarm - 47M + 40k + 25str = 112
Titanium - 37M + 35k + 30str = 102
GYHAB - 43M + 35k + 23str = 101
WHYB - 35M + 28k + 20str = 83

So I'm pretty sure about Gangnam Style hitting #1 this week.
One More Night and Begin Again should be in top3 but close to each other.
Die Young should debut #5-12 and Diamonds #7-13. Finally Found You could rise to Top 15.

[josh]

I just want to point out (not sure if this is what you meant or not) that Die Young's 8th day effect big loss will occur Wednesday morning. Diamonds' 8th day won't happen until Thursday, meaning its big day of airplay will still count towards this week's Hot 100.