Verisimilitude
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Post by Verisimilitude on Nov 28, 2012 14:25:37 GMT -5
Never thought I'd ever see the day Alicia would be a weaker sales force than Rihanna these days. Resting on her laurels, indeed! ONE-DAY SALES: "FIRE" AND TINSEL Will Keys Rule Retail's Kingdom, or Will Rod Sneak Under the Market Mistleoe First? November 28, 2012 If we're reading the tea leaves correctly, Alicia Keys' new RCA set, Girl on Fire, should land at #1 next week, shifting somewhere between 150k and 175k units. If, on the other hand, these aren't tea leaves at all but the unspeakable remains of Trakin's lunch from last Tuesday, we could be looking at a post-Black Friday surge that lands Rod Stewart's Merry Christmas, Baby (Verve) at the top of the tree. As you may have guessed, the impact of Black Friday and Cyber Monday on sales is still being reckoned with; this lends a giddy, cinnamon-scented air of unpredictability to the whole enterprise. Or maybe we're feeilng this way because we started drinking eggnog at about 9:30am. Didn't you? Bottoms up, buddy! Other key debuts of the week are electro-popsters Timeflies, whose self-released One Night EP (now spreading its wings at #2 on the iTunes chart, trailing only Keys) should buzz up 25-30k, and Columbia's Season 4 Glee set, which is expected to move 18-22k.
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Post by strikeleo on Nov 28, 2012 14:29:04 GMT -5
Wow, I can't believe how far Alicia has fallen. I still remember the golden days when she did 700k+ with As I Am and it seemed like no one could stop her.
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Envoirment
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Post by Envoirment on Nov 28, 2012 14:33:06 GMT -5
Wow. That is a huge underperformance if the estimate is true! Probably the biggest disappointment of the year. I really hope that they have got this so wrong. I really wasn't expecting Alicia to do under 250k, let alone under 200k!
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Deleted
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Post by Deleted on Nov 28, 2012 14:35:36 GMT -5
I expected her sales to be extremely underwhelming, but I thought she'd at least break 200k. Horrible.
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Post by areyoureadytojump on Nov 28, 2012 14:37:06 GMT -5
Alicia's last album was 3 years ago.
Opening weeks have been disappointing all year.
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So Pure
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Post by So Pure on Nov 28, 2012 14:40:19 GMT -5
I love Alicia but she hasn’t had a bona-fide solo cross over hit since ‘No One’. ‘The Element of Freedom’ is totally underrated…it has some brilliant stuff on it. Like Beyonce’s ‘4’ I think it was meant to reconnect her with her core urban audience. I’m not sure who they’re targeting with ‘GOF’? Another #1 under her belt is still a good start.
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kmbgs
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Post by kmbgs on Nov 28, 2012 14:43:14 GMT -5
Alicia's last album was 3 years ago. And that was a major disappointment. She really lost a lot of goodwill with consumers after that debacle
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Envoirment
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Post by Envoirment on Nov 28, 2012 14:48:19 GMT -5
Alicia's last album was 3 years ago. And that was a major disappointment. She really lost a lot of goodwill with consumers after that debacle Her label never sent any of her songs to pop, which was a bad decision. If they had, it would have been much more successful. And, at least, The Element Of Freedom became Alicia's biggest album campaign in the UK, selling over 1 million copies here, with 3 top 10 hits. Hopefully she will do well again in the UK this time round as well, to counter-balance the underwhelming performance in the US.
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Post by Love Plastic Love on Nov 28, 2012 15:13:19 GMT -5
I expected her to do more-maybe not 400K+ but definitely not safely under 200K. I feel like her recent lead singles have been missteps. Girl On Fire isn't a complete disaster, but I think it could have been without the heavy commercial campaign and I don't think it sold the album.
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Enigma.
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Post by Enigma. on Nov 28, 2012 15:13:21 GMT -5
and Columbia's Season 4 Glee set, which is expected to move 18-22k. LMAO
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fire
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Post by fire on Nov 28, 2012 15:13:26 GMT -5
^album is only #14 in uk midweeks...disappointing on both sides of the ocean
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Deleted
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Post by Deleted on Nov 28, 2012 15:18:30 GMT -5
Wow at Alicia. I thought she'd get 250-300. It's scary that her and Usher(two of the biggest R&B artists) opened to these kinda numbers :$
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jgizzle89
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Post by jgizzle89 on Nov 28, 2012 15:19:31 GMT -5
150-175k is atrocious. I wasn't expecting much lower than 250k. It's honestly quite shocking. But, TEOF was a better album, so perhaps that has something to do with it.
Regardless, this album should have some legs. Maybe not 1 million, but certainly something like 750k if she does well at Urban.
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Enigma.
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Post by Enigma. on Nov 28, 2012 15:22:46 GMT -5
From As I Am to GOF it's all in line: 742k -> 417k -> 175k.
GOF can also trend upwards a bit, we don't know that yet.
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Wavey✨️
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Post by Wavey✨️ on Nov 28, 2012 15:29:14 GMT -5
AHHHOHHHSHYTWTF!?!?!?!?
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#LisaRinna
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Post by #LisaRinna on Nov 28, 2012 15:31:04 GMT -5
Less than Usher? Gerl bye.
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Enigma.
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Post by Enigma. on Nov 28, 2012 15:32:27 GMT -5
It's Q4 so it'll sell much more than Usher's latest in the end.
(PS. Haven't listened to it, don't own her albums etc but I just think you're all over-reacting. In Christmas season it's not about the opening sales, it's about selling well for a month.)
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rosemoor
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Post by rosemoor on Nov 28, 2012 15:33:35 GMT -5
How much did she open last time? 170k is pretty good though.
oh nvm. 400 down to 170. that is kind of steep.
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#LisaRinna
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Post by #LisaRinna on Nov 28, 2012 15:38:59 GMT -5
I love Alicia but she hasn’t had a bona-fide solo cross over hit since ‘No One’. ‘The Element of Freedom’ is totally underrated…it has some brilliant stuff on it. Like Beyonce’s ‘4’ I think it was meant to reconnect her with her core urban audience. If that was the intention, then 'Doesn't Mean Anything' wouldn't have been the lead single.
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vantiboy3
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Post by vantiboy3 on Nov 28, 2012 15:48:15 GMT -5
I am crushed. OMG. I will be unconsolable if she misses that #1 spot....with sales of only 150k.
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Envoirment
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Post by Envoirment on Nov 28, 2012 16:06:16 GMT -5
^album is only #14 in uk midweeks...disappointing on both sides of the ocean She never opens big in the UK though. The Element of Freedom opening at #17 and she hasn't debuted in the top 10 since her debut back in 2001. Plus, sales are quite high, so even though she might open at #14 (maybe a bit higher or lower) it should have decent sales. I just hope the album has longevity here. :)
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Caviar
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Post by Caviar on Nov 28, 2012 16:06:53 GMT -5
I predicted she'd do 150-170k a couple months back. GOF isn't a song that's connecting with her fans and anyone expecting much more than 250k is crazy.
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Lockheart
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Post by Lockheart on Nov 28, 2012 16:07:25 GMT -5
These are based on first day sales? I'm seriously hoping she outdo the predictions
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#LisaRinna
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Post by #LisaRinna on Nov 28, 2012 16:08:25 GMT -5
And that was a major disappointment. She really lost a lot of goodwill with consumers after that debacle Her label never sent any of her songs to pop, which was a bad decision. If they had, it would have been much more successful. They sent 'Doesn't Mean Anything' and 'Put It In a Love Song' and they both flopped.
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KingB
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Post by KingB on Nov 28, 2012 16:11:02 GMT -5
how the mighty have fallen.
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Envoirment
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Post by Envoirment on Nov 28, 2012 16:12:16 GMT -5
Her label never sent any of her songs to pop, which was a bad decision. If they had, it would have been much more successful. They sent 'Doesn't Mean Anything' and 'Put It In a Love Song' and they both flopped. Oops. Sorry, I don't remember much. All I do remember is there was some anger because the label weren't sending songs to pop. Maybe I'm thinking about "Try Sleeping With A Broken Heart" and "Unthinkable (I'm Ready)"?
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Rican@
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Post by Rican@ on Nov 28, 2012 16:13:58 GMT -5
It isn't bad. Things are set up quite nicely for her right now. GOF (single) is doing well on Pop and urban is finally getting something to play. If she continues with promo then she will be fine. These numbers seen more from her core fanbase than anything else.
The stalling of GOF (single) put this era on hold and label didn't see the reaction from urban fans weren't feeling it like that.
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Deleted
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Post by Deleted on Nov 28, 2012 16:18:09 GMT -5
The lead single just wasn't a big hit at Urban radio (peaked in the teens) and hasn't made major traction at CHR/Pop yet either. Then throw in the fact that her last crossover smash as a lead artist was 5 years (and two albums) ago and she was featured on a #1 smash when her last album came out and it's not really shocking her sales have fallen off so much.
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tae04
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Post by tae04 on Nov 28, 2012 16:20:10 GMT -5
I predicted 150k. Nobody is really checking for Alicia like that anymore.
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tae04
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Post by tae04 on Nov 28, 2012 16:22:30 GMT -5
She better drop "Fire We Make" with Maxwell to urban radio immediately. Thats a good number of her core fans and they want to hear more songs like that instead of "Girl On Fire".
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