HITS: Who Will Rule?: One Direction 500k, Brit 150-200k
Aug 2, 2013 15:12:17 GMT -5
Post by areyoureadytojump on Aug 2, 2013 15:12:17 GMT -5
www.hitsdailydouble.com/news/newsPage.cgi?news09477m01
I.B. BAD PREVIEWS THE BIG RACE
The Make-or-Break Time of the Year for the Music Biz Is Just Weeks Away; Time to Place Your Bets on the Winning Thoroughbred
August 2, 2013
Industry handicappers are placing odds on which album hitting this fall will move the most units, and how it will impact label marketshare. The album that emerges triumphant will inevitably get a powerful boost from a smash radio single or singles, the most significant driver of album sales, as we’re seeing now with Imagine Dragons and Florida Georgia Line.
Will the winner be Eminem (whose previous LP debuted with 741k and has sold 4.46m to date) or Lady Gaga (with a 1.11m first week, bolstered by Amazon MP3’s 99-cent sale, and 2.3m RTD), on Jimmy Iovine and John Janick’s IGA? Will the second volume of Justin Timberlake’s The 20/20 Experience, on Peter Edge and Tom Corson’s RCA, be as big as the first, which bowed with 968k and is now at 2.1m?
Could it be Cash Money’s Drake (631k, 2.04m) for Monte Lipman’s Republic? What about the third album from One Direction on Rob Stringer’s Columbia, who built tremendous momentum by releasing their first two LPs just eight months apart, old-school style, totaling more than 3.5m? Or Katy Perry, on Steve Barnett’s CMG, whose 2010 album Teenage Dream got off to a surprisingly soft start, with a first week of just 192k, but achieved massive momentum behind a staggering 30m singles, going on to tally 2.74m?
In terms of potential comebacks, there’s more than a little pressure surrounding the Q4 releases from Columbia’s Beyoncé, coming off a relatively disappointing sales performance with 2011’s 4 (310k, 1.4m) and RCA’s Britney Spears, who failed to hit a home run with her previous effort, 2011’s Femme Fatale (276k, 777k). Likewise with RCA’s Kings of Leon, whose sales dipped from 2.3m on their 2008 breakthrough Only by the Night (which contained the crossover smash “Use Somebody”) to 730k on 2010’s hitless Come Around Sundown.
Will the all-important sophomore effort from Columbia’s Foster the People approach the band’s hit-driven debut-album total of 970k? Then there’s Mike Dungan’s triumvirate of UMG Nashville power hitters: Luke Bryan (145k, 2.07m), who’s expected to have the biggest late-summer debut with his 8/13 release; Scotty McCreery (197k, 1.18m); and Keith Urban (162k, 743k). And don’t underestimate Brushfire/Republic’s Jack Johnson (243k, 842k), who has quietly conducted one of the most consistently productive careers of the last decade.
On the indie front, the most high-profile release will come from Merge: the follow-up to Arcade Fire’s 2010 career album The Suburbs (156k, 770k), which won the 2011 Grammy for Album of the Year. It will also be interesting to see how Nine Inch Nails will fare in the band’s return to a major, Columbia, following a couple of DIY releases that failed to sell significant numbers.
In the record business, of course, there’s always the possibility that a record will come out of nowhere and connect on a massive scale; just look at Adele, who turned around the long-floundering record business almost singlehandedly in 2011, a positive year for album sales (+1.4%), track sales (+9%) and overall with TEA (+3.2%).
I.B. BAD PREVIEWS THE BIG RACE
The Make-or-Break Time of the Year for the Music Biz Is Just Weeks Away; Time to Place Your Bets on the Winning Thoroughbred
August 2, 2013
Industry handicappers are placing odds on which album hitting this fall will move the most units, and how it will impact label marketshare. The album that emerges triumphant will inevitably get a powerful boost from a smash radio single or singles, the most significant driver of album sales, as we’re seeing now with Imagine Dragons and Florida Georgia Line.
Will the winner be Eminem (whose previous LP debuted with 741k and has sold 4.46m to date) or Lady Gaga (with a 1.11m first week, bolstered by Amazon MP3’s 99-cent sale, and 2.3m RTD), on Jimmy Iovine and John Janick’s IGA? Will the second volume of Justin Timberlake’s The 20/20 Experience, on Peter Edge and Tom Corson’s RCA, be as big as the first, which bowed with 968k and is now at 2.1m?
Could it be Cash Money’s Drake (631k, 2.04m) for Monte Lipman’s Republic? What about the third album from One Direction on Rob Stringer’s Columbia, who built tremendous momentum by releasing their first two LPs just eight months apart, old-school style, totaling more than 3.5m? Or Katy Perry, on Steve Barnett’s CMG, whose 2010 album Teenage Dream got off to a surprisingly soft start, with a first week of just 192k, but achieved massive momentum behind a staggering 30m singles, going on to tally 2.74m?
In terms of potential comebacks, there’s more than a little pressure surrounding the Q4 releases from Columbia’s Beyoncé, coming off a relatively disappointing sales performance with 2011’s 4 (310k, 1.4m) and RCA’s Britney Spears, who failed to hit a home run with her previous effort, 2011’s Femme Fatale (276k, 777k). Likewise with RCA’s Kings of Leon, whose sales dipped from 2.3m on their 2008 breakthrough Only by the Night (which contained the crossover smash “Use Somebody”) to 730k on 2010’s hitless Come Around Sundown.
Will the all-important sophomore effort from Columbia’s Foster the People approach the band’s hit-driven debut-album total of 970k? Then there’s Mike Dungan’s triumvirate of UMG Nashville power hitters: Luke Bryan (145k, 2.07m), who’s expected to have the biggest late-summer debut with his 8/13 release; Scotty McCreery (197k, 1.18m); and Keith Urban (162k, 743k). And don’t underestimate Brushfire/Republic’s Jack Johnson (243k, 842k), who has quietly conducted one of the most consistently productive careers of the last decade.
On the indie front, the most high-profile release will come from Merge: the follow-up to Arcade Fire’s 2010 career album The Suburbs (156k, 770k), which won the 2011 Grammy for Album of the Year. It will also be interesting to see how Nine Inch Nails will fare in the band’s return to a major, Columbia, following a couple of DIY releases that failed to sell significant numbers.
In the record business, of course, there’s always the possibility that a record will come out of nowhere and connect on a massive scale; just look at Adele, who turned around the long-floundering record business almost singlehandedly in 2011, a positive year for album sales (+1.4%), track sales (+9%) and overall with TEA (+3.2%).