Billboard Hot 100 : 9/28/2013

[josh]

Most recent threads: 09/21/2013, 09/14/2013, 09/07/2013, 08/31/2013, 08/24/2013

1. ROBIN THICKE – Blurred Lines f/Pharrell & T.I: 241.500 (- 2.993)
2. KATY PERRY – Roar: 157.409 (+ 4.524)
3. CAPITAL CITIES – Safe And Sound: 141.817 (+ 1.057)
4. JAY Z – Holy Grail f/Justin Timberlake: 136.295 (+ 2.673) ▲
5. MAROON 5 – Love Somebody: 130.528 (- 3.931) ▼
6. ZEDD – Clarity f/Foxes: 123.667 (- 1.435)
7. IMAGINE DRAGONS – Radioactive: 110.827 (- 2.539)
8. LANA DEL REY – Summertime Sadness: 105.085 (+ 1.297)
9. BRUNO MARS – Treasure: 101.015 (- 2.333)
10. DRAKE – Hold On We’re Going Home: 99.012 (+2.616) ▲
11. MACKLEMORE & RYAN LEWIS – Same Love f/Mary Lambert: 95.768 (- 1.117) ▼
12. JUSTIN TIMBERLAKE – Mirrors: 92.240 (- 0.531) ▲
13. DAFT PUNK – Get Lucky: 91.017 (- 2.618) ▼
14. LORDE – Royals: 89.163 (+ 2.972) ▲
15. ANNA KENDRICK – Cups (Pitch Perfect’s When…: 88.502 (- 1.488) ▼
16. CALVIN HARRIS F/ELLIE GOULDING – I Need Your Love: 87.812 (- 1.120) ▼
17. AVICII – Wake Me Up: 84.471 (+ 2.602)
18. PHILLIP PHILLIPS – Gone, Gone, Gone: 71.684 (- 1.150)
19. J. COLE – Crooked Smile f/TLC: 67.107 (+ 0.873)
20. FLORIDA-GEORGIA LINE – Round Here: 65.299 (- 0.305)

LADY GAGA – Applause: 60.787 (+ 2.294)
JASON ALDEAN – Night Train: 60.246 (+ 0.717)
JUSTIN MOORE – Point At You: 56.720 (+ 0.377)
LUKE BRYAN – That’s My Kind Of Night: 48.785 (+ 1.583)
TAYLOR SWIFT – Everything Has …f/Ed Sheeran: 43.429 (+ 0.345)
PARAMORE – Still Into You: 38.689 (+ 0.828)
PINK – True Love f/Lily Allen: 37.878 (+ 0.788)
ROBIN THICKE – Give It 2 U f/Kendrick Lamar: 35.245 (+ 1.428)
EMINEM – Berzerk: 34.307 (+ 0.160)
CHRIS BROWN – Love More f/Nicki Minaj: 33.682 (+ 0.596)
ONE DIRECTION – Best Song Ever: 29.544 (- 0.393)
SELENA GOMEZ – Slow Down: 21.863 (+ 1.169)
IMAGINE DRAGONS – Demons: 20.220 (+ 0.423)
ONEREPUBLIC – Counting Stars: 18.645 (+ 0.683)
PASSENGER – Let Her Go: 17.487 (+ 0.318)
TEGAN & SARA – Closer: 13.990 (+ 0.632)
BRUNO MARS – Gorilla: 9.021 (+ 2.441)
BASTILLE – Pompeii: 8.148 (+ 0.066)
MILEY CYRUS – Wrecking Ball: 7.486 (+ 2.225)
COLDPLAY – Atlas: 3.580 (+ 0.450)
CELINE DION – Loved Me Back To Life: 1.987 (- 0.120)

[RadioBeatz]

"Roar" coming for #1 :) Does BL has a chance to tie or break WFL's weeks at #1?

:o at "Gorilla".

[Kris]

It will probably tie it. if Roar gained 3M airplay a day for the next 13 days it would have 196M, and BL would have 202M airplay, and I doubt it would reach a 13th week. That is also only +/-'ing 3M airplay. If Katy continues to gain at 4M+ it could be 11 weeks for BL providing it has more -4M updates.

[surreallife]

Top 10 prediction:

1. Wrecking Ball;
2. Roar
3. Royals
4. Blurred Lines
5. Wake Me Up
6. Holy Grail
7. Summertime Sadness
8. Hold On, We're Coming Home
9. Applause
10. Safe and Sound

[brucelover]

So "Applause" is turning into a hit after all, it's a really catchy track despite the nonsensical lyrics so I'm not shocked. Gaga clearly isn't "over and irrelevant" as some might want to say, she's just a lot less popular than she was and not the #1 superstar around anymore.

[Wrecking Ball]

Is there anyway to tell how much of Katy's sales are from the Pepsi giveaway?

[josh]

Sept 12, 2013 16:19:57 GMT -5 Wrecking Ball said:

Is there anyway to tell how much of Katy's sales are from the Pepsi giveaway?

If it's free, which it looks like to me, then it's not a "sale" and doesn't count towards her total.

[Wrecking Ball]

Sept 12, 2013 16:25:23 GMT -5 josh said:

Sept 12, 2013 16:19:57 GMT -5 Wrecking Ball said:

Is there anyway to tell how much of Katy's sales are from the Pepsi giveaway?

If it's free, which it looks like to me, then it's not a "sale" and doesn't count towards her total.

I know that but isnt it through iTunes? So katy:s percentage on kworb would be inflated. Billboard wont count them but I think its contributing to her "sales" on iTunes

[josh]

Sept 12, 2013 16:43:15 GMT -5 Wrecking Ball said:

Sept 12, 2013 16:25:23 GMT -5 josh said:

If it's free, which it looks like to me, then it's not a "sale" and doesn't count towards her total.

I know that but isnt it through iTunes? So katy:s percentage on kworb would be inflated. Billboard wont count them but I think its contributing to her "sales" on iTunes

How long has the promotion been going on? For a few weeks? If so, then I don't think it's affecting pop bar numbers, because the actual sales seem to match up pretty well with the pop bars, so I don't think the Pepsi deal makes it go higher on iTunes.

[Deleted]

Sept 12, 2013 15:22:22 GMT -5 surreallife said:

Top 10 prediction:

1. Wrecking Ball;
2. Roar
3. Royals
4. Blurred Lines
5. Wake Me Up
6. Holy Grail
7. Summertime Sadness
8. Hold On, We're Coming Home
9. Applause
10. Safe and Sound

I will LMAO if "Roar" is bumped from #1 by "Wrecking Ball" after only two weeks on top.

[icefire9]

Sept 12, 2013 16:52:07 GMT -5 @peigan68 said:

Sept 12, 2013 15:22:22 GMT -5 surreallife said:

Top 10 prediction:

1. Wrecking Ball;
2. Roar
3. Royals
4. Blurred Lines
5. Wake Me Up
6. Holy Grail
7. Summertime Sadness
8. Hold On, We're Coming Home
9. Applause
10. Safe and Sound

I will LMAO if "Roar" is bumped from #1 by "Wrecking Ball" after only two weeks on top.

ONLY two weeks? Some huge songs spent one or two weeks at #1. Just Dance, Poker Face, and Give Me Everything come to mind.

[Living Legend]

Sept 12, 2013 15:01:48 GMT -5 Kris said:

It will probably tie it. if Roar gained 3M airplay a day for the next 13 days it would have 196M, and BL would have 202M airplay, and I doubt it would reach a 13th week. That is also only +/-'ing 3M airplay. If Katy continues to gain at 4M+ it could be 11 weeks for BL providing it has more -4M updates.

"Blurred Lines" will get an 11th week at #1 on Hot 100 Airplay but "Roar" will take over the following week. On this week's chart Robin had 194 million AI and Katy had 123 million AI. That's only a gap of 71 million which is getting smaller and smaller every day.

[Deleted]

Sept 12, 2013 17:08:54 GMT -5 icefire9 said:

Sept 12, 2013 16:52:07 GMT -5 @peigan68 said:

I will LMAO if "Roar" is bumped from #1 by "Wrecking Ball" after only two weeks on top.

ONLY two weeks? Some huge songs spent one or two weeks at #1. Just Dance, Poker Face, and Give Me Everything come to mind.

Her stans were sure it would stay on top for much longer.

[icefire9]

Sept 12, 2013 17:17:01 GMT -5 @peigan68 said:

Sept 12, 2013 17:08:54 GMT -5 icefire9 said:

ONLY two weeks? Some huge songs spent one or two weeks at #1. Just Dance, Poker Face, and Give Me Everything come to mind.

Her stans were sure it would stay on top for much longer.

Well yeah, but could anyone have predicted that Wrecking Ball would have blown up so suddenly like this?

[Rocky]

Hot Digital Song prediction after 4 days

01. Wrecking Ball - 542,000
02. Roar - 60% - 325,000
03. Royals - 43% - 233,000
04. Wake Me Up - 35% - 190,000
05. Applause - 30% - 163,000
06. Berzerk - 26% - 141,000
07. Hold On, We're Going Gome - 26% - 139,000
08. Holy Grail - 21% - 114,000
09. Summertime Sadness - 20% - 108,000
10. Blurred Lines - 20% - 107,000

BDS Airplay prediction with the last 3 updates trend

1. Blurred Lines - --> 174,400
2. Roar - --> 147,200
3. Holy Grail -  --> 120,500
4. Safe & Sound - --> 119,700
5. Hold On, WGH -  --> 92,400
6. Clarity -  --> 91,900
7. Summertime Sadness - --> 88,500
8. Love Somebody - --> 86,900
9. Royals - --> 83,100
10. Wake Me Up ---> 78,700
11. Radioactive ---> 77,000
12. Treasure - --> 68,100
18. Applause - --> 56,700
-- Berzerk ---> 31,100
-- Wrecking Ball ---> 21,900

Hot 100 with sales+airplay

1 WB 48,087
2 Roar 46,710
3 BL 32,170
4 Royals 30,497
5 WMU 26,326
6 GH 25,567
7 HO,WGH 23,903
8 Appl 21,143
9 SS 20,800
10 S&S 19,260
-- Berz 15,897

It seems like "Wrecking Ball" is winning with its sales only, it should get another ~58,000 points from streaming while Katy will have around 16,000 points there.
1. WB - 100,000+
2. Roar - 63,000

"Royals" should be close to "Blurred Lines" because it will likely be #2 on the on-demand streaming chart next week.

So if Billboard won't imply a last-minute rule change, "Wrecking Ball" is going #1 next week with a good 30-40% lead over "Roar".

[rfucom]

Congrats on yah 1st no.1 ;) miley

[Adonis the DemiGod!]

Congratulations Miley!

[Au$tin]

It hasn't happened yet, though, and it's not even 100% going to happen.

[Acid Eyes]

Like, where did Miley even come from? :o

I really thought Party in the USA was sort of a fluke crossroads of her career as HM and her blooming solo career, off the heels of sleeper hit The Climb.

Maxim Hot 100? Effortless Top 2 hits? Twerking with Robin Thicke? Engaged to Gale?!

[Au$tin]

Sept 12, 2013 22:02:27 GMT -5 Acid Eyes said:

Engaged to Gale?!

Good, Katniss is better with Peta.

[josh]

Sept 12, 2013 22:11:44 GMT -5 Au$tin said:

Sept 12, 2013 22:02:27 GMT -5 Acid Eyes said:

Engaged to Gale?!

Good, Katniss is better with Peta.

NOOOOOOOO

[Au$tin]

Sept 12, 2013 22:17:30 GMT -5 josh said:

Sept 12, 2013 22:11:44 GMT -5 Au$tin said:

Good, Katniss is better with Peta.

NOOOOOOOO

SPOILER: Click to show

{Random Hunger Games spoiler in the Hot 100 thread!}Complain all you want, Katniss and Peta end up together and even have children at the end of Mockingjay. So I win!

---

Edit:
I need to add something to this post to not be so badly off topic... um... oh, I know!

Those gains for "Roar" are insane! When's the last time (if ever) we've seen increases like that when a song's in the top 2?! (Referring more to it's +6 mill gain yesterday than its +4 mill gain today.)

[Deleted]

PEETA.

[Adonis the DemiGod!]

Sept 12, 2013 21:55:35 GMT -5 Au$tin said:

It hasn't happened yet, though, and it's not even 100% going to happen.

Nothing is ever100% certain. This is 99.999999% certain.

[badrobot]

Sept 12, 2013 22:02:27 GMT -5 Acid Eyes said:

Like, where did Miley even come from? :o

I really thought Party in the USA was sort of a fluke crossroads of her career as HM and her blooming solo career, off the heels of sleeper hit The Climb.

Maxim Hot 100? Effortless Top 2 hits? Twerking with Robin Thicke? Engaged to Gale?!

I gotta agree. Although I didn't really think Party in the USA was a fluke, I thought she was a legit hitmaker for a handful of songs while she was still having the Disney star halo (See You Again and The Climb were also significant hits), but that her fanbase would've grown up and moved on to other artists.

I mean, good for her, but it just seems so surprising that she has not only maintained her fanbase but grown it to be bigger now.

We've come a long way from the era of Tiffany/Debbie Gibson/NKOTB where teen stars burn bright and fast and then disappear -- labels seem to be better at developing long-term careers.

[3m3r7c]

Does anyone know how many YouTube views roar had on Sunday night at midnight (end of last week tracking week)?

[Rocky]

[Source] Au$tin said:

Edit:
I need to add something to this post to not be so badly off topic... um... oh, I know!

Those gains for "Roar" are insane! When's the last time (if ever) we've seen increases like that when a song's in the top 2?! (Referring more to it's +6 mill gain yesterday than its +4 mill gain today.)

"Blurred Lines" got 4-5M updates when it was #1 for a few weeks.

[surreallife]

Although "Wrecking Ball" seems to be heading for #1 on the next HOT 100, I am not convinced (as yet) that it will stay there more than one week. "Roar" is developing into a mega hit on radio, its' downloads are still pretty strong, and its' streaming numbers are also very strong.

[Az Paynter]

The thing isn't whether 'Wrecking Ball' will spend multiple weeks atop the Hot 100 or not, what we're watching is to see whether it even can top the chart at all under the circumstances, because it seems to be defying expectations MAJORLY when it comes to streaming.

[cesarams]

FRIDAY'S UPDATE:
TOP 20:

1. ROBIN THICKE – Blurred Lines f/Pharrell & T.I: 236.745 (- 4.755)
2. KATY PERRY – Roar: 163.155 (+ 5.746)
3. CAPITAL CITIES – Safe And Sound: 142.596 (+ 0.779)
4. JAY Z – Holy Grail f/Justin Timberlake: 138.009 (+ 1.714)
5. MAROON 5 – Love Somebody: 126.433 (- 4.095)
6. ZEDD – Clarity f/Foxes: 121.435 (- 2.232)
7. IMAGINE DRAGONS – Radioactive: 108.449 (- 2.378)
8. LANA DEL REY – Summertime Sadness: 106.080 (+ 0.995)
9. DRAKE – Hold On We’re Going Home: 101.312 (+ 2.300) ▲
10. BRUNO MARS – Treasure: 98.197 (- 2.818) ▼
11. MACKLEMORE & RYAN LEWIS – Same Love f/Mary Lambert: 94.917 (- 0.851)
12. LORDE – Royals: 92.376 (+ 3.213) ▲
13. JUSTIN TIMBERLAKE – Mirrors: 91.618 (- 0.622) ▼
14. DAFT PUNK – Get Lucky: 88.622 (- 2.395) ▼
15. AVICII – Wake Me Up: 87.665 (+ 3.194) ▲
16. ANNA KENDRICK – Cups (Pitch Perfect’s When…: 86.885 (- 1.617) ▼
17. CALVIN HARRIS F/ELLIE GOULDING – I Need Your Love: 86.712 (- 1.100) ▼
18. PHILLIP PHILLIPS – Gone, Gone, Gone: 71.161 (- 0.523)
19. J. COLE – Crooked Smile f/TLC: 68.165 (+ 1.058)
20. FLORIDA-GEORGIA LINE – Round Here: 64.837 (- 0.462)

OTHERS:

LADY GAGA – Applause: 63.067 (+ 2.280)
JASON ALDEAN – Night Train: 60.794 (+ 0.548)
JUSTIN MOORE – Point At You: 57.128 (+ 0.408)
LUKE BRYAN – That’s My Kind Of Night: 49.725 (+ 0.940)
TAYLOR SWIFT – Everything Has …f/Ed Sheeran: 43.470 (+ 0.041)
PARAMORE – Still Into You: 39.164 (+ 0.475)
PINK – True Love f/Lily Allen: 38.617 (+ 0.739)
ROBIN THICKE – Give It 2 U f/Kendrick Lamar: 36.786 (+ 1.541)
EMINEM – Berzerk: 35.181 (+ 0.874)
CHRIS BROWN – Love More f/Nicki Minaj: 33.881 (+ 0.199)
ONE DIRECTION – Best Song Ever: 29.366 (- 0.178)
SELENA GOMEZ – Slow Down: 22.779 (+ 0.916)
IMAGINE DRAGONS – Demons: 20.394 (+ 0.174)
ONEREPUBLIC – Counting Stars: 19.205 (+ 0.560)
NEIGHBOURHOOD – Sweater Weather: 18.830
PASSENGER – Let Her Go: 17.784 (+ 0.297)
TEGAN & SARA – Closer: 14.327 (+ 0.337)
MACKLEMORE & RYAN LEWIS – White Walls f/ScHoolboy Q: 11.257
BRUNO MARS – Gorilla: 11.055 (+ 2.034)
MILEY CYRUS – Wrecking Ball: 9.668 (+ 2.182)
BASTILLE – Pompeii: 8.194 (+ 0.046)
COLDPLAY – Atlas: 4.099 (+ 0.519)
ARIANA GRANDE – Right There f/Big Sean: 3.991
CELINE DION – Loved Me Back To Life: 2.124 (+ 0.137)
ARCADE FIRE – Reflektor: 1.870
PHILLIP PHILLIPS – Where We Came From: 0.519