Duca
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Post by Duca on Oct 23, 2013 11:25:53 GMT -5
YOUR TOP 15 (PLUS TWO): As expected, Katy Perry will debut at #1, giving Steve Barnett's Capitol Records its first #1 since the exec took the helm late last year. The bow of Perry's PRISM will best by about 100k her previous release, Teenage Dream, which opened with 192k in August of 2010. TLC's 20, which came out last week, leaps into the Top 15 after Monday night's premiere of the VH1 biopic CrazySexyCool; with 4.5 million viewers it's the highest-rated cable movie of the year, as well as VH1's biggest original movie ever, according to Bloomberg Businessweek. Here's how things looks headed into the weekend:
1. Katy Perry (Capitol) 290-300k 2. Miley Cyrus (RCA) 40-45k 3. Drake (Young Money/Cash Money/Republic) 40-45k 4. Lorde (Lava/Republic) 40-45k 5. Pearl Jam (Monkeywrench/Republic) 35-40k 6. Fifth Harmony (Syco/Epic) 30-32k 7. AFI (Republic) 25-30k 8. Justin Timberlake (RCA) 24-27k 9. Luke Bryan (Capitol Nashville) 22-25k 10. DJ Khaled (Cash Money/Republic) 22-25k 11. Scotty McCreery (Mercury Nashville/19/Interscope) 21-24k 12. Paul McCartney (Hear Music) 19-22k 13. TLC (Epic) 15-20k 14. Def Leppard (Frontiers) 14-16k 15. Tori Kelly (Capitol) 14-16k 16. Imagine Dragons (KidinaKorner/Interscope) 14-16k 17. Avett Brothers (American/Republic) 14-16k
In other VH1 biopic news, look for the HITS-themed flick CrazyMenacingStoned to be stuck in turnaround sometime soon. (10/24p)
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Wavey✨️
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Post by Wavey✨️ on Oct 23, 2013 11:30:05 GMT -5
Nice opening for Perry. It'll most likely do 300k+
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Post by Push The Button on Oct 23, 2013 11:32:06 GMT -5
Expected. Despite her massive single success, she's the type of artist who will grab more casual music buyers vs. die-hards who run out and buy it at first chance.
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Post by when the pawn... on Oct 23, 2013 11:37:31 GMT -5
HITS numbers usually trend up throughout the week, yes?
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anafan
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Post by anafan on Oct 23, 2013 11:39:16 GMT -5
This is about what I expected.
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Post by areyoureadytojump on Oct 23, 2013 11:46:43 GMT -5
HITS numbers usually trend up throughout the week, yes? Sometimes, but mostly no. It's still early in the sales week. They'll know more tomorrow. The last one I remember trending higher was Buble's To Be Loved. Michael Buble (Reprise) 150-170k SoundScan: 195k
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Post by Fat Ass Kelly Price on Oct 23, 2013 11:48:05 GMT -5
So she may do about 50k more than Miley. Considering the era Miley came off of to that of Perry, things are...interesting...
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Post by Live Your Life on Oct 23, 2013 11:49:03 GMT -5
I was thinking around 275k, so that sounds about right for her.
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Glove Slap
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Post by Glove Slap on Oct 23, 2013 11:58:15 GMT -5
I predicted between 250-300k, not surprised at all.
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foxxden
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Post by foxxden on Oct 23, 2013 12:04:02 GMT -5
She's receiving the most radio airplay and promotion than any artist out there for the past 3 months...this is low relative to that. Like someone said before she will barely outsell Miley.
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Enigma.
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Post by Enigma. on Oct 23, 2013 12:05:36 GMT -5
I'm more interested in her second week. 300k is quite good but she's coming from almost triple platinum seller.
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Tortuga
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Post by Tortuga on Oct 23, 2013 12:09:08 GMT -5
Were there any predictions before album drop?
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Sir Benji
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Post by Sir Benji on Oct 23, 2013 12:09:22 GMT -5
I expected those numbers for Katy's album. TD only sold about 2.8 million copies even though all 8 singles went Top 3. Katy has never been a big album seller are you guys really surprised she might barely outdo Miley's numbers?
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The Upper Hand
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Post by The Upper Hand on Oct 23, 2013 12:12:15 GMT -5
Were there any predictions before album drop? 400k, according to Hits and areyoureadytojump.
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Tortuga
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Post by Tortuga on Oct 23, 2013 12:16:37 GMT -5
Were there any predictions before album drop? 400k, according to Hits and areyoureadytojump. FLOP
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The Upper Hand
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Post by The Upper Hand on Oct 23, 2013 12:20:58 GMT -5
2013 Biggest Debuts
1. Justin Timberlake - 968K 2. Drake - 658K 3. Jay Z - 528K 4. Luke Bryan - 528K 5. Justin Timberlake - 350K 6. Daft Punk - 339K 7. Kanye West - 327K 8. Katy Perry - 300K (projected) 9. J Cole's - 297K 10. Miley Cyrus - 270K
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Post by areyoureadytojump on Oct 23, 2013 12:22:24 GMT -5
I'm more interested in her second week. 300k is quite good but she's coming from almost triple platinum seller. I'm sure she'll follow in the footsteps of Justin and Miley: Justin debuted with 350k and fell to 70,000. 80% drop. Miley debuted with 270k and fell to 72,000. 73% drop. Probably somewhere between the two... These are SoundScan numbers.
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Post by areyoureadytojump on Oct 23, 2013 12:23:58 GMT -5
^BTW, TD is not triple platinum.
It's SoundScan sales are around 2,775,000.
TD sold so much due to 6 singles on the original album and 2 more singles on the re-release.
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Post by Love Plastic Love on Oct 23, 2013 12:26:03 GMT -5
Who predicted 400K for her? Was that a label prediction? I must admit I expected a bit more from her coming off her biggest era ever with like, 9 #1s in a row and Roar being a record breaking smash and her being deemed pretty much the biggest pop star in the entire world now. But, she is more of a steady casual buy type artist and once Prism gets done with its 5 or 6 radio smashes I am sure this total will be higher than people who even debuted higher than her. I also think she will be a big holiday seller.
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Post by areyoureadytojump on Oct 23, 2013 12:27:54 GMT -5
^HITS and Sony's New Release Schedule both said 400k.
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Post by Love Plastic Love on Oct 23, 2013 12:29:25 GMT -5
Thanks-seems like they just aren't great at predicting her sales though 400K to slightly under 300K is much closer than the 700-800K they predicted for TD that sold less than 200 lol.
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foxxden
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Post by foxxden on Oct 23, 2013 12:32:50 GMT -5
Thanks-seems like they just aren't great at predicting her sales though 400K to slightly under 300K is much closer than the 700-800K they predicted for TD that sold less than 200 lol. Oh wow...TD was really predicted to debut that high? That's a huge under-performance lol.
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Post by areyoureadytojump on Oct 23, 2013 12:34:15 GMT -5
^HITS said 700-800k for TD a few weeks before it came out.
It never was an official estimate, if you know what I mean.
This was before we regularly got label/industry estimates.
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BadRomance
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Post by BadRomance on Oct 23, 2013 12:37:06 GMT -5
2013 Biggest Debuts 1. Justin Timberlake - 968K 2. Drake - 658K 3. Jay Z - 528K 4. Luke Bryan - 528K 5. Justin Timberlake - 350K 6. Daft Punk - 339K 7. Kanye West - 327K 8. Katy Perry - 300K (projected) 9. J Cole's - 297K 10. Miley Cyrus - 270K That's 8 guys out of 10. Male artist sells more album? That's debatable.
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Post by Love Plastic Love on Oct 23, 2013 12:42:07 GMT -5
I wonder how much that list will change. I am assuming Gaga will end up somewhere on that unless it is a huge flop and at least Miley will be pushed out through the holidays. Eminem will be on there too.
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Duca
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Post by Duca on Oct 23, 2013 12:42:39 GMT -5
They could be underestimating her because of their Teenage Dream prediction. Prognosticators believe that Perry’s album will surpass Eminem’s Recovery, which bowed at 754k, to become the year’s biggest debut.
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foxxden
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Post by foxxden on Oct 23, 2013 13:04:29 GMT -5
They could be underestimating her because of their Teenage Dream prediction. Prognosticators believe that Perry’s album will surpass Eminem’s Recovery, which bowed at 754k, to become the year’s biggest debut. It seems like the general consensus in the industry is she should be selling more than she is if she is constantly being over predicted.
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Post by Love Plastic Love on Oct 23, 2013 13:10:24 GMT -5
It is strange how some artists get more first week sales than others. Like, you can promote the shit out of someone and hype until you are blue in the face and have all the airplay in the world, but some artists will "only" do 200-300K as a max while others will for some reason pop up to a million or close to it sold. Ultimately, stability counts for a lot though. Rihanna has never had an OMG first week and she has received criticism for it, but stable, consistent sales and hits have left her in a very stable position in the music industry. Katy will be the same.
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foxxden
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Post by foxxden on Oct 23, 2013 13:16:21 GMT -5
It is strange how some artists get more first week sales than others. Like, you can promote the s**t out of someone and hype until you are blue in the face and have all the airplay in the world, but some artists will "only" do 200-300K as a max while others will for some reason pop up to a million or close to it sold. Ultimately, stability counts for a lot though. Rihanna has never had an OMG first week and she has received criticism for it, but stable, consistent sales and hits have left her in a very stable position in the music industry. Katy will be the same. I think it probably comes down to Rihanna and Katy Perry being viewed more as "hit machines" carefully calculated by their labels/management to get that #1 single rather than singers who are generally perceived more as "artists" delivering a complete package (Gaga, Taylor Swift, Adele).
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ItGirl
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Post by ItGirl on Oct 23, 2013 13:34:52 GMT -5
Not bad but not impressive considering. This is what Pink did last year with a tenth of the promotion, less airplay and less sales for a first single.
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