onebuffalo
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Post by onebuffalo on Aug 21, 2014 16:53:41 GMT -5
I don't understand this. If they push this week, won't it give him the #1 next week since Dierks will likely have a second week? Are they just trying to get ahead of Lady Antebellum for next week? It'll probably be one of those MediaBase #1, Billboard #2 kind of situations.
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sabre14
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Post by sabre14 on Aug 21, 2014 17:46:52 GMT -5
I don't understand this. If they push this week, won't it give him the #1 next week since Dierks will likely have a second week? Are they just trying to get ahead of Lady Antebellum for next week? It'll probably be one of those MediaBase #1, Billboard #2 kind of situations. The interesting thing is that the MB chart closes one day earlier than Billboard. The fact that Dierks is still a ways ahead, that's something to at least keep in mind...
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onebuffalo
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Post by onebuffalo on Aug 21, 2014 17:49:51 GMT -5
^It could be a situation where Tim McGraw squeaks in at the last minute like Tyler Farr did over Chris Young. I hated that. Young should have had that one in the bag!
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sabre14
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Post by sabre14 on Aug 21, 2014 17:53:50 GMT -5
^It could be a situation where Tim McGraw squeaks in at the last minute like Tyler Farr did over Chris Young. I hated that. Young should have had that one in the bag! The question is when will Dierks' song max out in airplay? I think it can still grow in audience from now until Sunday, which is still taken into account on MB's points system. Spins though is a different story - Hard to get any better than 7800. I agree with those (and I said this push was coming from the start) who expect Big Machine to put in a massive push Friday through Sunday and probably Monday as well.
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onebuffalo
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Post by onebuffalo on Aug 21, 2014 17:55:00 GMT -5
I hear Scott Borchetta is emptying his bank account right now!
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Post by Deleted on Aug 21, 2014 20:45:23 GMT -5
I don't understand this. If they push this week, won't it give him the #1 next week since Dierks will likely have a second week? Are they just trying to get ahead of Lady Antebellum for next week? The label is going for maximum spins right now--this week--and that "push" will continue at least through the end of the day on Saturday (which is when the Mediabase week ends) or perhaps the end of the day on Sunday (which is when the Billboard week ends). It seems pretty clear that their intention is to be #1 on Mediabase when the chart updates on Sunday, and perhaps #1 on Monday's Billboard chart as well (either/or, they'd probably take the #1 on either chart but I'm sure they'd prefer both). The problem, though, is that they are getting such a big number of spins this week that there's really no way they can build on that next week. Dierks' song didn't need that extra "push" to get way up in the spins stratosphere, but Tim's has needed a little help. But with so many extra spins added this week...well, let's just say that radio will start to allocate those spins to other high-ranking songs (Bartender, American Kids, etc) next week. So if Tim is #2 on Sunday/Monday, that is likely where he will peak. It will be almost impossible for Big Machine to maintain these high spins numbers and this big push for an entire second week. When labels mount a "push" for #1, the songs almost always (99% of the time) start to fall the following week. They're not going to be able to keep this one moving upward next week--so it's now or never for Tim.
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Post by ctmoonstoneheart on Aug 22, 2014 7:14:43 GMT -5
with the early morning all access/media base update M.W.B.A.M. has 53.608.000 audience impressions at country radio at #2 unfortunately at Hot Country Songs it's stuck fluctuating between #5 and #7 and may have peaked at #41 on the billboard hot 100
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kml567
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Post by kml567 on Aug 22, 2014 16:48:21 GMT -5
LOL I was driving for only 20 minutes today and heard the song 3 times on 3 different stations. I wonder if they're all playing it once an hour. The spin increase tomorrow should be very interesting.
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carriekins
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Post by carriekins on Aug 22, 2014 16:50:18 GMT -5
LOL I was driving for only 20 minutes today and heard the song 3 times on 3 different stations. I wonder if they're all playing it once an hour. The spin increase tomorrow should be very interesting. The spin/audience increase today was pretty "interesting." #push
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Post by Deleted on Aug 22, 2014 17:49:37 GMT -5
LOL I was driving for only 20 minutes today and heard the song 3 times on 3 different stations. I wonder if they're all playing it once an hour. The spin increase tomorrow should be very interesting. It already had a huge update today. KMLE in Phoenix played it basically once an hour yesterday--20 spins in 24 hours. And the overall update was +172 spins and +1.084 mil in audience. Quite an astronomical push here, and I suspect that Big Machine will get their wish--the #1 on Mediabase come Sunday. If Tim posts a loss in audience on Sunday, though (Monday morning MB update), then Dierks will probably hold on for a 2nd week at #1 on Billboard, leaving Tim to another #2 BB/#1 MB peak. Gains so far this week for MBAM: 08/18: +126 spins, +732k impressions 08/19: +50 spins, +374k 08/20: +141 spins, +456k 08/21: +62 spins, +619k 08/22: +172 spins, +1.084 mil The Billboard week began with the update on the 19th, and so Tim is up about 2.5 mil in that span. Dierks began the week with a Billboard lead of about 3.4 million, and Dierks is up just about 700k in MB audience in the same 4-day span. So Tim has probably only made up about 1.5 to 1.6 million on Dierks on Billboard (when you translate MB audience to BB audience), but since he out-gained Dierks by 1.1 mil on MB today alone, if Big Machine continues the push through midnight Sunday, the Billboard #1 *could* be within reach. But it's probably a little more likely that Tim hits #1 on MB by Sunday and then has his first negative update on Monday morning. I'm simply saying that, based off today's update, it's not impossible to imagine Tim topping Billboard in addition to Mediabase. ** Anyway, I'm honestly not surprised at Tim's huge update today, and I wouldn't be surprised if tomorrow's update is right in line with today's, or perhaps even bigger. KMLE was pushing Tim hard yesterday (20 spins in a single day, seriously?) and you just know they weren't gonna be alone in that.
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carriekins
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Post by carriekins on Aug 22, 2014 18:02:49 GMT -5
Dierks cohosts CC-USA this weekend, so the extra spin effect will help a little with the Tim push, as well. Hopefully. Mondays my bday - I'd love a 2-week #1! Hehehe.
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Marv
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Post by Marv on Aug 22, 2014 18:15:07 GMT -5
20 spins in one day for a song as old as this is indeed absurd; no doubt about it, and I'm sure the same strategy was executed last weekend when Brad's label tried to shove 'River Bank' to #1, and missed by 61 points and less than a dozen spins.
The Mediabase chartis are more vulnerable to these pushes than Billboard's chart is because there's a lot less live programming on Sundays than on Saturdays, which of course means a lot fewer live personalities on hand to handle phone calls asking for 'just one more spin' to get their tune to #1, since the labels don't really care which chart they reach the penthouse on, as the ads in Country Aircheck as well as BCU clearly prove.
But as we all know, NO chart is safe from Scott Borchetta, right?
The Mediabase top 5 is absolutely wonderful right now, and if it were up to me, Dierks & everybody else in the top 5 would definitely get multiple weeks at #1; unfortunately that's not the case anymore, so the top five is about to go seriously downhill, and will return to being downright unbearable by the first or second weekend of October.
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sabre14
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Post by sabre14 on Aug 22, 2014 18:40:03 GMT -5
LOL I was driving for only 20 minutes today and heard the song 3 times on 3 different stations. I wonder if they're all playing it once an hour. The spin increase tomorrow should be very interesting. It already had a huge update today. KMLE in Phoenix played it basically once an hour yesterday--20 spins in 24 hours. And the overall update was +172 spins and +1.084 mil in audience. Quite an astronomical push here, and I suspect that Big Machine will get their wish--the #1 on Mediabase come Sunday. If Tim posts a loss in audience on Sunday, though (Monday morning MB update), then Dierks will probably hold on for a 2nd week at #1 on Billboard, leaving Tim to another #2 BB/#1 MB peak. Gains so far this week for MBAM: 08/18: +126 spins, +732k impressions 08/19: +50 spins, +374k 08/20: +141 spins, +456k 08/21: +62 spins, +619k 08/22: +172 spins, +1.084 mil The Billboard week began with the update on the 19th, and so Tim is up about 2.5 mil in that span. Dierks began the week with a Billboard lead of about 3.4 million, and Dierks is up just about 700k in MB audience in the same 4-day span. So Tim has probably only made up about 1.5 to 1.6 million on Dierks on Billboard (when you translate MB audience to BB audience), but since he out-gained Dierks by 1.1 mil on MB today alone, if Big Machine continues the push through midnight Sunday, the Billboard #1 *could* be within reach. But it's probably a little more likely that Tim hits #1 on MB by Sunday and then has his first negative update on Monday morning. I'm simply saying that, based off today's update, it's not impossible to imagine Tim topping Billboard in addition to Mediabase. ** Anyway, I'm honestly not surprised at Tim's huge update today, and I wouldn't be surprised if tomorrow's update is right in line with today's, or perhaps even bigger. KMLE was pushing Tim hard yesterday (20 spins in a single day, seriously?) and you just know they weren't gonna be alone in that. Yeah, unfortunately I'm not surprised by Tim's huge gains this week. I think most of us saw this coming a mile away and today's update was the first day this week where I'd be surprised if "Meanwhile Back At Mama's" isn't #1 on MB this Sunday. The Billboard is technically within reach as well I think if Big Machine really wants it. It'll be interesting to see how far they want to go with this. But for now I agree that a #1 on MB for Tim and #2 on BB is the most likely scenario.
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carriekins
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Post by carriekins on Aug 23, 2014 6:13:33 GMT -5
^It could be a situation where Tim McGraw squeaks in at the last minute like Tyler Farr did over Chris Young. I hated that. Young should have had that one in the bag! The question is when will Dierks' song max out in airplay? I think it can still grow in audience from now until Sunday, which is still taken into account on MB's points system. Spins though is a different story - Hard to get any better than 7800. I agree with those (and I said this push was coming from the start) who expect Big Machine to put in a massive push Friday through Sunday and probably Monday as well. How does 7896 sound? ;) Capitol is really not playing nice here.
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onebuffalo
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Post by onebuffalo on Aug 23, 2014 7:41:49 GMT -5
Dierks cohosts CC-USA this weekend, so the extra spin effect will help a little with the Tim push, as well. Hopefully. Mondays my bday - I'd love a 2-week #1! Hehehe. Let me wish you an early Happy Birthday. The icing on the cake would be to have Drunk On A Plane at #1 for the second week. Hope you get your wish on that one!
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Post by ctmoonstoneheart on Aug 23, 2014 8:10:41 GMT -5
the peak audience between the two is 1.75 million difference with the early Saturday morning update it's anybody's guess who will be #1 when the final Sunday or first Monday update is released Meanwhile Back At Mama's would be Tim & Faith's 3rd duet to go #1 on the Country Charts
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onebuffalo
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Post by onebuffalo on Aug 23, 2014 8:17:38 GMT -5
the peak audience between the two is 1.75 million difference with the early Saturday morning update it's anybody's guess who will be #1 when the final Sunday or first Monday update is released Meanwhile Back At Mama's would be Tim & Faith's 3rd duet to go #1 on the Country Charts I wouldn't consider Meanwhile Back At Mama's to be a full fledged duet between Tim McGraw and Faith Hill. What would be their second chart topper since It's Your Love?
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sabre14
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Post by sabre14 on Aug 23, 2014 13:01:04 GMT -5
The question is when will Dierks' song max out in airplay? I think it can still grow in audience from now until Sunday, which is still taken into account on MB's points system. Spins though is a different story - Hard to get any better than 7800. I agree with those (and I said this push was coming from the start) who expect Big Machine to put in a massive push Friday through Sunday and probably Monday as well. How does 7896 sound? ;) Capitol is really not playing nice here. Yeah I saw that and to be honest, a smile crept across my face when I did. Tim once again had another big day, as his total spin increase over the past 7 days is a whopping 788, but Capitol refuses to relinquish the #1 on either chart, and I'm happy they have decided to not "play nice". That being said, there's still one more day left for the MB chart to be final for this week. I of course expected Tim to have a big day (which he did) but I didn't expect him to still be roughly 1.8 million and over 100 spins behind Dierks. I really hope Capitol Nashville can hang on for one more day because I hate these insane pushes and "Drunk On A Plane" has proven it deserves a second week at #1 on both charts.
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onebuffalo
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Post by onebuffalo on Aug 23, 2014 14:11:50 GMT -5
I don't think either song deserves it if it takes their labels pushing it to the top. It's meaningless then. How long has this aggressive action been going on? The first I remember hearing about was a Reba song quite a few years ago. Somebody from 2004. It interrupted the reign of Tim McGraw's Live Like You Were Dying. In the meantime, during the seven weeks McGraw was at #1, Kenny Chesney settled for the #2 spot for that long with I Go Back.
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.indulgecountry
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Post by .indulgecountry on Aug 23, 2014 15:33:03 GMT -5
Somebody from 2004. It interrupted the reign of Tim McGraw's Live Like You Were Dying. In the meantime, during the seven weeks McGraw was at #1, Kenny Chesney settled for the #2 spot for that long with I Go Back. Seven weeks of this kind of inane promotion? No, that Tim song sat at No. 1 for 7 weeks because it was HUGE. The label manipulation he's referring to was Reba's "Somebody" being given a ton of overnight spins to boost her to No. 1 for a single week, interrupting his reign, before her song subsequently collapsed. The fact that Kenny Chesney sat behind Tim all that time and never got to No. 1 makes it look even worse since Reba's song probably would've been stuck at #3 at best otherwise, and the Chesney song was obviously far "bigger" all things considered.
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Marv
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Post by Marv on Aug 23, 2014 15:38:29 GMT -5
No, at one point 'I Go Back' had a lead in excess of 3,000 spins before 'Live Like You Were Dying' exploded & overtook it (IMHO Kenny's best single to date), en route to 10 weeks at #1 @ R&R/Mediabase, winding up as Billboard's #1 single of 2004 as well as of the entire decade.
Suffice it to say it remains the #1 country single of the past decade (Jan. 1, 2004-Dec. 31st, 2013) by a very wide margin.
It's chart performance certainly helped power Tim to a wide margin of victory as the most-played artist of the entire decade (2000-09) on North American radio (7.800,000+ spins), with the most played song of the decade in 'Something Like That', which received just under 488,000 spins for the entire decade.
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Post by Deleted on Aug 23, 2014 18:09:55 GMT -5
I don't think either song deserves it if it takes their labels pushing it to the top. It's meaningless then. How long has this aggressive action been going on? The first I remember hearing about was a Reba song quite a few years ago. Well, both of these songs ranked at or near the top in total spins and audience before the pushes began. Dierks was already #1 before any sort of push began for "Drunk On A Plane". And when Brad started to fall, Tim was already at #3, just barely behind Lady A for #2. And looking at today's numbers, who else would "deserve" #1? Lady A is a few hundred spins and 3 million in audience behind Dierks. Kenny is 1000 spins behind. None of the other songs have put up high enough numbers to even contend for #1 yet. All this is is two songs--both already with very high airplay numbers (worthy of the top 2 spots)--are battling for that #1 spot. In Dierks' case, he already had #1, but he's fighting for extra spins to keep it. And in Tim's case, he'd risen to #2 but Dierks wasn't budging, and so as a result, Tim and his label are fighting for extra spins to knock Dierks from the top. And right now, I think Dierks' update was big enough today that things favor him once again. Tim's push has been fairly excessive and normally it would pay off in a #1, but this is just one of those rare cases where the already #1 song (DOAP) has refused to relinquish its spot. So as a result, we have a power struggle, with 2 songs fighting hard for as many spins as they can get, their airplay numbers escalating to more and more ridiculous numbers with each passing day.
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liza
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Post by liza on Aug 23, 2014 20:32:45 GMT -5
"Deserve" to me means promoting the song to listeners and creating demand. And while I'm sure that occurs to some extent during these pushes, they are basically promoting to the stations and the stations are getting something in return.
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Post by Deleted on Aug 24, 2014 5:54:08 GMT -5
Sheesh...Tim gained 115 spins and just over 1 million in audience in today's update. Dierks is down just 14 spins and 120k, but he maintains the Mediabase #1. It's interesting though, that Tim now has a higher spin total than Dierks does. Dierks hit a high-water mark of 7896 spins yesterday, while Tim jumps up to 7890 today, a total of 8 spins more than Dierks now has (7882).
But Dierks is still #1, and he's tracking #1 on the Billboard RTT as well. So unless something drastic happens in the afternoon/evening MB updates, it appears that Tim and Big Machine have fallen just short, making this the 2nd week in a row where a major push has fallen just short (as Brad and Arista of course came up just a few points short last Sunday).
But now I wonder...knowing that they came up just short on Mediabase, will Big Machine go all-out for one more day (today) and try to get the Billboard #1 tomorrow, or do they put up the white flag? Normally most labels would probably be done, and I think most of them only push for Mediabase (and if they happen to be #1 on Billboard too, they are of course a little extra happy...but generally these big pushes correspond with the 7-day Mediabase tracking week of Sunday through Saturday), but in this case, I could see Big Machine going all-out for just one more day to try to knock Dierks from the top at Billboard so they could at least claim MBAM as a Billboard #1.
Again, I'm not sure if that will happen and I'm not necessarily expecting it to either. It really could go either way but I guess we probably won't know until tomorrow morning's update (unless we get tweets or hear about radio folks going out of their way for Tim this afternoon).
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Marv
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Post by Marv on Aug 24, 2014 9:48:23 GMT -5
EIGHTY-ONE spins last week at KMLE? That's downright ridiculous!!!
With the Mediabase chart year now 75% complete as of midnight (PDT) yesterday, this could conceivably wind up in the year-end top 20, although I was hoping that it would have wound up being a much bigger single with multiple weeks at #1.
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sabre14
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Post by sabre14 on Aug 24, 2014 12:44:09 GMT -5
I'm tickled pink that Dierks was able to hold off another insane push for #1. Big Machine like Arista the week before went all out (805 spin increase). But that was cloooose. Tim edged Dierks by just 8 spins, but Dierks edged Tim by roughly 500k in audience. I don't think I've ever seen two consecutive weeks were it was that unbelievably close back to back. Kudos to Capitol though for holding in like they did. I'm sure it was not easy and took many resources to accomplish. Dierks deserved a second week on top and Im thrilled he kept it. But like jhomes87 said - I think Borchetta and company might decide to give it all they've got to get #1 on Billboard tomorrow. Dierks is still tracking #1 though I think it's attainable for Big Machine if they decide to. If I had to predict, Id say Dierks will keep his #1 position on Billboard as well, but I'm not confident about it. Guess we'll have to see tomorrow morning.
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carriekins
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Post by carriekins on Aug 24, 2014 12:46:43 GMT -5
Someone just tweeted me that they're seeing tweets on their timeline congratulating Tim and the songwriters on #1, so I'm not optimistic Dierks will hold on in the final update.
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Post by Kanenrá:ke on Aug 24, 2014 13:04:39 GMT -5
Looking at how close it is I think Tim is going to get Billboard. Big Machine is really pushing and there's less than a million difference in audience and Tim's been going about a million a day so if today (Sunday) is another million I think he'll get the Billboard.
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sabre14
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Post by sabre14 on Aug 24, 2014 13:17:00 GMT -5
Looking at how close it is I think Tim is going to get Billboard. Big Machine is really pushing and there's less than a million difference in audience and Tim's been going about a million a day so if today (Sunday) is another million I think he'll get the Billboard. Yeah, I think me predicting Dierks will be #1 on BB if I had to guess was me just fooling myself. BMLG came up short with "This Is How we Roll" on both charts earlier this year and I just can't imagine them falling short on both MB and Billboard twice. Carrie bringing up those tweets congratulating Tim and the writers all but seals the fate that Big Machine did in fact decide to go all in one more day to get the massive push #1 on one of the charts, and unfortunately the Billboard week ends one day later, which is probably all they need to get there. Nothing's official yet, though I suspect we'll have a rare case of a manipulated #1 on Billboard rather than MB.
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carriekins
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Post by carriekins on Aug 24, 2014 13:20:13 GMT -5
The only reason I think Dierks may hold Billboard is because Tim's first big gain last week came last Sunday (Monday's update), so that falls off, and Dierks is cohosting CC-USA so he should see a gain. I don't know. No me gusta.
(Windmills is tweeting me points figures as I type this, haha.)
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