Verisimilitude
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Post by Verisimilitude on Oct 14, 2014 17:24:13 GMT -5
YOUR EARLY READS: Next week’s retail picture is still a bit hazy, but we have a few early numbers for y’all to chaw on.
Florida Georgia Line (Republic Nashville) 180-200k Bob Seger (Capitol) 50-60k You+Me (RCA) 40-50k Hoodie Allen (Hoodie Allen) 35-45k U2 (Interscope) 25-30k Jessie J (Lava/Republic) 20-25k Nico & Vinz (Warner Bros.) 10-15k
We’ll have a clearer picture tomorrow morning; please take these figures with the requisite grain of salt. (10/14p)
Success for P!nk and Jessie J, flop for U2?
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kingofpain
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Post by kingofpain on Oct 14, 2014 17:26:25 GMT -5
Yikes... No prediction for Annie Lennox?
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Post by areyoureadytojump on Oct 14, 2014 17:46:25 GMT -5
U2 flopped hard.
HITS said 350k for Florida Georgia Line and Billboard said 300k. 180-200k is good, but below expectations.
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Nick
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Post by Nick on Oct 14, 2014 18:29:58 GMT -5
The Annie Lennox album is out on 10/21.
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Kinney
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Post by Kinney on Oct 14, 2014 18:38:09 GMT -5
Everyone needs to get the expectations in check for Taylor and another million opening. Every album released in the past few weeks has come in below initial projections, this is definitely an industry wide issue going forward. I don't see anyone escaping it unscathed.
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Eloqueen™
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Post by Eloqueen™ on Oct 14, 2014 18:40:20 GMT -5
Everyone needs to get the expectations in check for Taylor and another million opening. Every album released in the past few weeks has come in below initial projections, this is definitely an industry wide issue going forward. I don't see anyone escaping it unscathed. Right. I just don't see a million plus debut this time around. It just seems unrealistic all things considered.
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Nick
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Post by Nick on Oct 14, 2014 18:41:42 GMT -5
Not a fan of hers, but in her defense the last album (RED) was not even available to stream. That album is on Spotify now, but I would imagine her new album won't be.
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14887fan
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Post by 14887fan on Oct 14, 2014 18:47:13 GMT -5
Thrilled for you + me seeing a projected 40-50k debut! I'd love to see it score a Top 5 debut, but with the strength of Jason Aldean and Barbra Streisand, I'm not sure how capable they'll be to swing that. rose ave. is great, so I'd love to see it garner some success even though it's a far cry from the normal Pink we get.
Also, I detest Florida Georgia Line.
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Gary
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Post by Gary on Oct 14, 2014 18:56:08 GMT -5
The U2 totals seem quite high 25-30K should not seem shocking considering how this album was delivered.
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Post by Devil Marlena Nylund on Oct 14, 2014 18:58:01 GMT -5
I wouldn't say U2 flopped. They were accessible by 600,000K people. I'd be willing to bet if they had gone the traditional route, the album would have easily sold well over 100K.
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Post by areyoureadytojump on Oct 14, 2014 19:00:02 GMT -5
The U2 totals seem quite high 25-30K should not seem shocking considering how this album was delivered. Based on this article, I think UMG expected more than 25-30k: www.billboard.com/articles/business/6251246/u2-retail-songs-of-innocence?utm_source=Sailthru&utm_medium=email&utm_term=biz_breakingnews&utm_campaign=Breaking%20NewsExclusive: UMG Reveals U2 Bonus Package Release Plan for Retailers By Ed Christman | September 11, 2014 It’s a given that merchants would be annoyed that the new U2 album Songs Of Innocence is being offered free to a half billion iTunes consumers for an exclusive five-week window. But in the days after the Sept. 9 announcement, those same retailers were in hot pursuit of details about what Interscope and the Universal Music Group would give them to offset the exclusive. As it turns out, brick-and-mortar retail will get a deluxe package with four additional songs and two to seven acoustic versions. (The final number has yet to be determined.) The Songs of Innocence CD will carry a $12.90 wholesale price, which translates into a $19.98 list price. That means consumers will likely see it priced at $15-$16 in stores. Brick-and mortar merchants, as well as music streaming services, will get the bonus tracks for a five-week window, just like Apple had on the non-deluxe version, after which iTunes will also get the additional bonus songs. In addition, retailers will be offered catalog deals that will discount the entire U2 catalog from front-line to mid-line, which means that U2 albums will be about $3 cheaper in stores for a period. iTunes is already offering its customers the U2 catalog at discounted prices and their customers have responded by placing 20 U2 titles into the iTunes top 200 chart, proving there is strong demand for all of the band’s music. Despite all the maneuvering by Interscope and UMG to placate unhappy retailers, some merchants are debating whether to support U2 on the album. When Beyoncé gave iTunes an exclusive window on her last album, Target refused to carry it, while Amazon refused to stock the CD version, although it did carry the MP3 version. Target and Amazon declined comment. Besides merchants, some competing major label executives say the move devalues music. "I'm not sure that this giveaway is good for the business," says one senior label executive. Another says it will hurt smaller artists, who still count on sales revenue. But UMG insiders counter that anyone of that opinion simply is not in touch with the music market, which is moving to an access model. Moreover, in the modern music industry, many view the album as a loss leader for the real paydays provided by touring and merchandise, among other revenue streams.
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Gary
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Post by Gary on Oct 14, 2014 19:23:50 GMT -5
I say "quite high", not based on what a label executive thinks, I say "quite high" because these are 25-30K people who knew they already had the album and were willing to pay full price for the bonus tracks or they forgot they already had the album on their computer and neglected to download it
Kind of narrows the base a bit and subsequently should lower the expectations
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DJ General
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Post by DJ General on Oct 14, 2014 19:57:05 GMT -5
I don't think the U2 numbers are that bad at all. Most people already have the album somehow. I bet it will be a fairly decent seller maybe through out the holidays. A lot of people do not care about bonus tracks and physical copies anymore I guess. We'll see what happens.
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Post by josh on Oct 14, 2014 19:57:31 GMT -5
Some people don't use iTunes though.
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Gary
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Post by Gary on Oct 14, 2014 20:01:12 GMT -5
Some people don't use iTunes though. Maybe a small % but those that know the release date of a U2 album and go out of their way to buy it the fist day or first week, likely also have an iTunes account.
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HolidayGuy
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Post by HolidayGuy on Oct 14, 2014 21:35:42 GMT -5
I don't know U2 were thinking with the iTunes freebie; am sure it was compensated well by Apple, but still.
I didn't even know Alecia Moore Hart had a folk-duo release coming out. :o
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Green Baron
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Post by Green Baron on Oct 14, 2014 21:39:42 GMT -5
U2 isn't surprising to me. Not that many fans are that devoted to getting more than just the standard. I mean, they don't count vinyl in this, do they?
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imbondz
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Post by imbondz on Oct 14, 2014 21:43:34 GMT -5
I'm not sure why u2 or their label would be surprised. you can't give it away for free then expect us to buy it.
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imbondz
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Post by imbondz on Oct 14, 2014 21:44:00 GMT -5
not to mention the 1st single sucked
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Post by areyoureadytojump on Oct 14, 2014 21:56:16 GMT -5
25-30k. It's embarrassing.
But, these are label estimates.
Tomorrow's numbers could be better. Or worse...
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Gary
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Post by Gary on Oct 14, 2014 21:59:32 GMT -5
Embarrassing? - LOL.
I don't think this is about Soundscan sales and #1 debuts here. It is about exposure. That is what they got, probably more so than any other album in several months. That will translate into dollars in other arenas besides CD sales.
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kanimal
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Post by kanimal on Oct 14, 2014 22:52:57 GMT -5
U2 flopped hard. HITS said 350k for Florida Georgia Line and Billboard said 300k. 180-200k is good, but below expectations. 180-200K would put them below Brantley Gilbert. Considering how much bigger they are (they're presented as a Top 5 country act and have legitimate pop recognition, while Brantley Gilbert is a rising star at best), considering how hot they are at radio and considering their previous album DID have legs, there shouldn't even be a competition between the two. Granted, 180-200K makes sense in the context of the Aldean sales. But it's interesting to me how a rift is developing between who country fans are buying (Eric Church, Brantley Gilbert) and who country is selling (FGL, Blake Shelton, Jason Aldean). Since Luke Bryan has gotten so much bigger since he released Crash My Party (which did over 500K), I would have expected 750-1M for his next album. Now I'm not so sure.
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Glove Slap
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Post by Glove Slap on Oct 14, 2014 22:53:32 GMT -5
Wow, much lower than I expected from FGL, especially given how well their first set did.
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kanimal
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Post by kanimal on Oct 14, 2014 23:02:50 GMT -5
By the way, why do I feel like I read a U2 physical projection on either Billboard or Hits Daily Double? I can't seem to find it - but I'm so beyond positive I saw something that forecast a total well above 25K.
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anafan
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Post by anafan on Oct 14, 2014 23:29:25 GMT -5
I thought FGL would do better.
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rimetm
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Post by rimetm on Oct 15, 2014 7:33:55 GMT -5
I mean, they don't count vinyl in this, do they? The Billboard 200 does in fact count vinyl sales. Lazaretto a couple months back led with a notable physical component being the vinyl sales, which nearly beat out CD sales. Source: The BB200 article of the week
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#LisaRinna
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Post by #LisaRinna on Oct 15, 2014 8:02:22 GMT -5
Yay for P!nk!
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Post by areyoureadytojump on Oct 15, 2014 8:13:29 GMT -5
By the way, why do I feel like I read a U2 physical projection on either Billboard or Hits Daily Double? I can't seem to find it - but I'm so beyond positive I saw something that forecast a total well above 25K. I never read a physical projection. I tweeted Bill Werde about the estimate and he acted like 25-30k was no big deal. Someone mentioned at UKMix that Billboard said U2 had 70,000 in pre-orders. EDIT: www.billboard.com/articles/news/6274359/itunes-numbers-u2-songs-innocence-albumMeanwhile, a physical deluxe edition of Songs of Innocence hits all other retailers Oct. 14, featuring 10 additional bonus tracks (unavailable on iTunes) including six acoustic versions of Innocence songs and four all-new cuts. Based on pre-orders alone, sources suggest to Billboard the physical deluxe edition will move an additional 70,000 copies in the U.S.
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YourFaveIsAFlop
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Post by YourFaveIsAFlop on Oct 15, 2014 10:34:22 GMT -5
Jessie J selling less than Hoodie Allen is embarassing. America just doesnt care about her.
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Post by Devil Marlena Nylund on Oct 15, 2014 11:22:11 GMT -5
By the way, why do I feel like I read a U2 physical projection on either Billboard or Hits Daily Double? I can't seem to find it - but I'm so beyond positive I saw something that forecast a total well above 25K. I never read a physical projection. I tweeted Bill Werde about the estimate and he acted like 25-30k was no big deal. Someone mentioned at UKMix that Billboard said U2 had 70,000 in pre-orders. EDIT: www.billboard.com/articles/news/6274359/itunes-numbers-u2-songs-innocence-albumMeanwhile, a physical deluxe edition of Songs of Innocence hits all other retailers Oct. 14, featuring 10 additional bonus tracks (unavailable on iTunes) including six acoustic versions of Innocence songs and four all-new cuts. Based on pre-orders alone, sources suggest to Billboard the physical deluxe edition will move an additional 70,000 copies in the U.S.If he had said sources predicted 30k, would that have been an embarrassing number? Is it only embarrassing because the current prediction is half what Bill said it would be?
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