sabre14
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Post by sabre14 on Dec 17, 2015 14:46:03 GMT -5
It looks as if Valory is holding back "Die A Happy Man" and playing nice with Sony/Arista. "Die A Happy Man" has only gained 94 spins and 670k in audience since Monday, while "Burning House" has gained 356 spins and 2.4 million in audience. The gap should be pretty much gone as of today, as both songs are most likely very close in total Billboard audience, along with being neck and neck in MB audience. This is Cam's push week, so she'll be falling come next week.
The only thing I'm fearful of is that 1) Valory turns the jets on from now until Monday or 2) Sony lets go of this on Sunday and it causes "Burning House" to drop in audience on Monday (12/21). It could still be a case where BMLG knows that Sony is going to let it go come Sunday, which could pave the way for Thomas to sneak in on Billboard. The more likely scenario is that "Die A Happy Man" will get the Billboard #1 next week, while "Gonna Know We Were Here" grabs the MB #1 and then Thomas can get both charts the week after that. Which would leave both MB and Billboard for Cam this week.
I know I bring up how it was (in the good ole days, lol) back about 10-15 years ago but if it was 10 years ago, "Die A Happy Man" would have reached #1 on both charts this week and stayed there for 5 weeks, while Cam and Jason would have to settle for #2 or #3 peaks. In an ideal world, I would wish for that to come back -- labels are so good at playing this game now that it has become sickening to watch these chart climbs and sometimes I wonder why I'm even doing it. I rather just have songs go up naturally and have many songs get stuck at #2, #3 or #4. #1 singles, whether they be Mediabase or Billboard, don't have the same aura they once had and a small part of me wished Thomas' song would be #1 this week and stay there for at least a month. Huge hits should get rewarded and sometimes songs get short-shafted because of it (ex. "I Go Back", "Baby Girl", "Something More", "Tonight I Wanna Cry", etc.).
That being said, huge #1 push weeks are here to stay and since I've accepted it, I'm definitely with Team Cam on this one. She's already got the MB #1 locked, so here's hoping she can get both charts.
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onebuffalo
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Post by onebuffalo on Dec 17, 2015 15:36:55 GMT -5
Some stations playing a new Cam song. Would this be a new single?
COLE SWINDELL You Should Be Here 58 723 CARRIE UNDERWOOD Heartbeat 6 92 BRETT ELDREDGE Drunk On Your Love 5 71 FLORIDA-GEORGIA LINE Confession 3 63 CAM Want It All 4 28
Nice move on the rolling chart:
5 2 CAM Burning House 7867 7109 758 55.568
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Post by Deleted on Dec 17, 2015 15:44:52 GMT -5
^ Oh God I hope "Want It All" isn't the next single. I like Cam, and "Want It All" is a decent Pop song.......I guess, but I definitely don't want it on "country" radio. Granted, the genre is pretty much Pop now anyway, but that doesn't make one more Pop song justifiable. I'm hoping for either something along the lines of "Hungover On Heartache" or "Half-Broke Heart" (Ideally I'd like "Village" but I'm trying to be realistic here).
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Deleted
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Post by Deleted on Dec 17, 2015 15:52:50 GMT -5
I actually kinda like Want It All. It's pure fun ear candy and like with everything Cam does she owns it. I will say it does make sense to have Want It All as the next song because it's been the most popular song outside of Burning House when it comes to the album.
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dm2081
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Post by dm2081 on Dec 17, 2015 16:01:06 GMT -5
"Hungover On Heartache" or bust.
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:) KUFan
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Post by :) KUFan on Dec 17, 2015 16:10:31 GMT -5
Some stations playing a new Cam song. Would this be a new single? COLE SWINDELL You Should Be Here 58 723 CARRIE UNDERWOOD Heartbeat 6 92 BRETT ELDREDGE Drunk On Your Love 5 71 FLORIDA-GEORGIA LINE Confession 3 63 CAM Want It All 4 28 Nice move on the rolling chart: 5 2 CAM Burning House 7867 7109 758 55.568 This is most likely due to the Bobby Bones Show spinning the song the past two weeks or so. Bobby has been championing the song as a possible choice because it's upbeat and enjoys the song. She actually sang the song acoustically and that video can be found on the Bobby Bones Show Facebook.
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Post by tim on Dec 17, 2015 16:58:06 GMT -5
Some stations playing a new Cam song. Would this be a new single? CAM Want It All 4 28 This is most likely due to the Bobby Bones Show spinning the song the past two weeks or so. Bobby has been championing the song as a possible choice because it's upbeat and enjoys the song. She actually sang the song acoustically and that video can be found on the Bobby Bones Show Facebook. "Want It All" is actually one of my favorites from the album and I think it would have a good shot at becoming another hit. It has an infectious beat and chorus.
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.indulgecountry
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Post by .indulgecountry on Dec 17, 2015 17:52:06 GMT -5
Glad things actually look like they might pan out for this one getting the #1 on BB after. Oh how I pray that it happens that way. Thomas Rhett can clearly wait since it's pretty obvious he's headed for a multi-week stay #1. I know I bring up how it was (in the good ole days, lol) back about 10-15 years ago but if it was 10 years ago, "Die A Happy Man" would have reached #1 on both charts this week and stayed there for 5 weeks, while Cam and Jason would have to settle for #2 or #3 peaks. In an ideal world, I would wish for that to come back -- labels are so good at playing this game now that it has become sickening to watch these chart climbs and sometimes I wonder why I'm even doing it. I rather just have songs go up naturally and have many songs get stuck at #2, #3 or #4. #1 singles, whether they be Mediabase or Billboard, don't have the same aura they once had and a small part of me wished Thomas' song would be #1 this week and stay there for at least a month. Huge hits should get rewarded and sometimes songs get short-shafted because of it (ex. "I Go Back", "Baby Girl", "Something More", "Tonight I Wanna Cry", etc.). I get why you say things like this and I mean it technically makes sense if you think of it just from say the narrow snapshot of this week, but realistically speaking, I'm pretty sure that "Burning House" would've been a #1 hit, too, it just would've gotten there faster -- this had a very quick rise to the Top 20, but it definitely was slowed a lot over the past few months due to the way the country charts work today, which probably wouldn't have happened 10 years ago. In other words, 10 years ago, I don't think the two songs would've been peaking at the same time anyway. I totally agree that more songs need to miss the top and more weeks need to be given to the biggest hits. It's pretty frustrating though that the ones lately that seem to miss seem to often be the ones that deserved it perhaps the most... like "Girl Crush" which probably would've been a 4-5 week #1 a decade ago if it's popularity was comparable to what it was in 2015.
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bksouthga
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Post by bksouthga on Dec 17, 2015 18:01:10 GMT -5
From what I've heard last night, cam is asking people to tweet their choice for next single. I assume it's a nonbinding vote but I imagine that she will consider the feedback. I guess I do not have a vote since I don't know how to tweet. Oh well!
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sabre14
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Post by sabre14 on Dec 17, 2015 18:38:14 GMT -5
Glad things actually look like they might pan out for this one getting the #1 on BB after. Oh how I pray that it happens that way. Thomas Rhett can clearly wait since it's pretty obvious he's headed for a multi-week stay #1. I know I bring up how it was (in the good ole days, lol) back about 10-15 years ago but if it was 10 years ago, "Die A Happy Man" would have reached #1 on both charts this week and stayed there for 5 weeks, while Cam and Jason would have to settle for #2 or #3 peaks. In an ideal world, I would wish for that to come back -- labels are so good at playing this game now that it has become sickening to watch these chart climbs and sometimes I wonder why I'm even doing it. I rather just have songs go up naturally and have many songs get stuck at #2, #3 or #4. #1 singles, whether they be Mediabase or Billboard, don't have the same aura they once had and a small part of me wished Thomas' song would be #1 this week and stay there for at least a month. Huge hits should get rewarded and sometimes songs get short-shafted because of it (ex. "I Go Back", "Baby Girl", "Something More", "Tonight I Wanna Cry", etc.). I get why you say things like this and I mean it technically makes sense if you think of it just from say the narrow snapshot of this week, but realistically speaking, I'm pretty sure that "Burning House" would've been a #1 hit, too, it just would've gotten there faster -- this had a very quick rise to the Top 20, but it definitely was slowed a lot over the past few months due to the way the country charts work today, which probably wouldn't have happened 10 years ago. In other words, 10 years ago, I don't think the two songs would've been peaking at the same time anyway. I totally agree that more songs need to miss the top and more weeks need to be given to the biggest hits. It's pretty frustrating though that the ones lately that seem to miss seem to often be the ones that deserved it perhaps the most... like "Girl Crush" which probably would've been a 4-5 week #1 a decade ago if it's popularity was comparable to what it was in 2015. I never said "Burning House" didn't deserve a #1 peak, just that its timing would have been bad since Rhett's song was an unstoppable force in comparison. There's been plenty of songs that deserved to hit the top but the timing was rather unfortunate. In regards to how different the chart runs were back then and whether or not these would be peaking at the same time, yes, you're absolutely right in saying how songs wouldn't be peaking at the same time but since this is 2015 and these songs are peaking at the same time, Thomas' song would probably have won out back then (I'm just looking at these top 3-4 songs currently vying for #1, without considering the possibility that they might not have peaked at the same time back then to help illustrate my point of how "Die A Happy Man" would have won out). I actually think this particular situation might not fit exactly what you're laying out since Cam's song has had a pretty quick rise to the top 5 herself, at least by today's standard (iHeart obviously aided her), and Jason's and Thomas' songs also rose up the charts quickly, so these might have peaked at roughly the same time in 2005, too...of course I wouldn't know that for sure. It is impossible to tell how things would have played out though, I agree. My point still stands for the desire to have 4-5-6 weeks #1's back but that's merely fantasy land at this point.
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robenglund
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Post by robenglund on Dec 18, 2015 11:13:32 GMT -5
Whatever Cam/the label goes with definitely needs to be uptempo and not another slow song like Burning House.
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Ten Pound Hammer
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Post by Ten Pound Hammer on Dec 18, 2015 12:56:05 GMT -5
I still wonder if she can pull a "Voices" with "My Mistake". I thought that one had "hit" written all over it.
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.indulgecountry
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Post by .indulgecountry on Dec 18, 2015 12:58:13 GMT -5
I still wonder if she can pull a "Voices" with "My Mistake". I thought that one had "hit" written all over it. I hope so, too. I haven't heard the new album yet so I can't speak of the new songs that weren't on the EP, but "My Mistake" would definitely be a hit now and I'd love to see them re-release that one at some point whether it's next or third.
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Post by Deleted on Dec 18, 2015 14:53:34 GMT -5
With today's update I can confidently say Cam will get her first BB #1. Today's update was too massive for Cam not to be the BB #1. I am so happy that she'll more than likely hit the top. I feel like this song hitting the top is a huge victory for not only woman in country music but for quality music as well. Not so fast. Cam gained another 659k on Mediabase today, but Thomas increased by nearly 1 million. I'm not sure why anybody would be super confident that this can get the Billboard #1, especially given the fact that singles from women have continually come up short in recent years, and of course, more often than not, we see labels gun for the Mediabase #1 (which makes it appear that they'll get the Billboard #1 as well) only to pull the plug at the end of the day Saturday, resulting in a big Monday morning drop on MB and essentially losing/forfeiting the Billboard #1 on the 7th/final day of the Billboard tracking week. That's not to say that Sony hasn't put in quite a bit of effort lately (with Cam and with their other artists) -- we saw them tout the 3-week Billboard #1 accomplishments of both "Save It For A Rainy Day" and "I'm Comin' Over", as well as the 2-week #1 "Break Up With Him". In those cases, they clearly made multi-week Billboard #1's a priority. But in Cam's case, they might pull up the reins at the end of the day Saturday and only go for the Mediabase #1, especially if they know or suspect that Valory wants to begin a likely multi-week stay at #1 on Monday's Billboard chart with "Die A Happy Man".
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sabre14
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Post by sabre14 on Dec 18, 2015 14:55:03 GMT -5
Rhett gained close to 300k in audience more than Cam did today, so the race for Billboard is still close. "Burning House" will most likely remain in the top spot on the MB rolling chart and be declared a #1 song by Sunday afternoon. I'm still concerned that Sony will pull the plug on Sunday and pave the way for Valory to take Billboard.
I think it's pretty comical to look at the iTunes sales of the top 3 songs right now. "Burning House" is #8 on the all-genre chart. "Die A Happy Man" is #6..."Gonna Know We Were Here" is #219...
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Post by Deleted on Dec 18, 2015 15:38:59 GMT -5
Now I'm frustrated at least on the bright side it's nice to see an actual battle for the top spot. Still I am TeamCam all the way.
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onebuffalo
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Post by onebuffalo on Dec 19, 2015 12:45:04 GMT -5
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kw9461
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Post by kw9461 on Dec 19, 2015 22:23:11 GMT -5
I still wonder if she can pull a "Voices" with "My Mistake". I thought that one had "hit" written all over it. I agree completely. Considering that most consider this her debut, I don't see why it wouldn't be an option. I would certainly be delighted if they tried. I also think Half Broke Heart would work great as the follow-up. I confess I haven't heard the whole album yet (I hope to remedy that come Friday), but the rumored Want It All doesn't strike me as being very distinctive. What stands out about Cam is her uniqueness and ability to craft a song, and that song doesn't really put her best traits on display.
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fearlessarrow
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Post by fearlessarrow on Dec 20, 2015 6:35:21 GMT -5
I would like to see "My Mistake" get re-released as well!
With this song and "Die a Happy Man," it's looking like Jason's song has to settle for #2, but I would much prefer Thomas or Cam be at #1 rather than Jason so it's all good. I hope this goes #1 on Billboard!
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sabre14
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Post by sabre14 on Dec 20, 2015 11:35:52 GMT -5
I would like to see "My Mistake" get re-released as well! With this song and "Die a Happy Man," it's looking like Jason's song has to settle for #2, but I would much prefer Thomas or Cam be at #1 rather than Jason so it's all good. I hope this goes #1 on Billboard! Broken Bow is gunning for the MB #1 the week of December 27th through January 3rd. That's why Jason's song hasn't free fallen yet. He won't be #1 on Billboard though. "Burning House" is #1 on MB this week. My guess is that the race for Billboard is very close. Sony still might let go of this today which would cause a loss of audience tomorrow and pave the way for Thomas to take Billboard. I'm hoping Sony continues for one more day.
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kanimal
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Post by kanimal on Dec 20, 2015 11:50:48 GMT -5
I would like to see "My Mistake" get re-released as well! With this song and "Die a Happy Man," it's looking like Jason's song has to settle for #2, but I would much prefer Thomas or Cam be at #1 rather than Jason so it's all good. I hope this goes #1 on Billboard! Broken Bow is gunning for the MB #1 the week of December 27th through January 3rd. That's why Jason's song hasn't free fallen yet. He won't be #1 on Billboard though. "Burning House" is #1 on MB this week. My guess is that the race for Billboard is very close. Sony still might let go of this today which would cause a loss of audience tomorrow and pave the way for Thomas to take Billboard. I'm hoping Sony continues for one more day. We're sure this counts, right? I've definitely had the same impression everyone else did - that the charts are "official" but not "published with recurrent rules" - but I did notice that the issue Aircheck usually publishes in the first week of January acts as if there was no chart the previous week (see attached). AllAccess *DOES* reference the previous positions in its first January email, but it does not make its "sweet treat" announcements during the freeze weeks. Plus, I would have expected someone like Cam to tweet about scoring her first number one (I know the charts don't go final until tonight, but many artists tweet based on the morning update). Maybe her team was out late celebrating last night, though.
Actually, she did just Tweet about it, and she acts as if Mediabase isn't a factor. She says today's the "Last day" to get her to #1 at country radio, but today only counts for Billboard. Just don't want to be happy for her for no reason
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.indulgecountry
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Post by .indulgecountry on Dec 20, 2015 11:56:45 GMT -5
Actually, she did just Tweet about it, and she acts as if Mediabase isn't a factor. She says today's the "Last day" to get her to #1 at country radio, but today only counts for Billboard. Omg yes! Keep pushing til tomorrow please, Sony!
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sabre14
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Post by sabre14 on Dec 20, 2015 12:10:30 GMT -5
kanimal Cam's lead was just too big on MB this morning for her to not have it hold up in the afternoon update. There was a 100% chance "Burning House" would hold up its lead on MB. I never saw Cam's tweet, lol. The actual final update is Sunday night, where once in a great while we see songs flip flop positions but that's usually towards the bottom of the chart.
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kanimal
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Post by kanimal on Dec 20, 2015 12:17:35 GMT -5
kanimal Cam's lead was just too big on MB this morning for her to not have it hold up in the afternoon update. There was a 100% chance "Burning House" would hold up its lead on MB. I never saw Cam's tweet, lol. The actual final update is Sunday night, where once in a great while we see songs flip flop positions but that's usually towards the bottom of the chart. I understand all that. My post concerned the ambiguity of the "frozen" Mediabase charts; if one hits #1 on the 12/13-19 and 12/20-12/26 Mediabase charts, has she "officially" reached #1 at country radio? The Tweet thing was to illustrate my point. Last week at this time, Blake Shelton celebrated hitting #1 at country radio. Most artists do the same on Sunday - they're referencing going #1 on Mediabase. Cam, however, is talking about the fact that she may hit #1 on tomorrow's (Billboard) chart. I guess you could make the case that she doesn't want people to stop pushing/requesting/etc, but it seems strange not to acknowledge that she already has a #1 on MB. Plus, the whole Aircheck thing -- it's one thing not to publish during the "freeze," it's another to pretend the positions from those weeks don't exist.
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sabre14
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Post by sabre14 on Dec 20, 2015 12:20:27 GMT -5
This song hit #1 before the freeze though. If a song hits #1 next Sunday/Monday, they count. The positions count, just not a publication of Aircheck and Billboard for two weeks. Her song is officially a #1 since it hit #1 on MB this week, doesn't matter when it is.
I wasn't concerning the Billboard chart in my last post. Sony could very well be keeping this push going for one more day.
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kanimal
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Post by kanimal on Dec 20, 2015 12:23:21 GMT -5
This song hit #1 before the freeze though. If a song hits #1 next Sunday/Monday, they count. The positions count, just not a publication of Aircheck and Billboard for two weeks. No she didn't? Blake Shelton had the last number one before the chart freeze. "The final MEDIABASE Published charts of 2015 using recurrent rules will be on SUNDAY, DECEMBER 13th. The final add dates for 2015 are MONDAY, DECEMBER 14th and TUESDAY, DECEMBER 15th. MEDIABASE charts will post on the website without recurrents removed on SUNDAY, DECEMBER 20th and SUNDAY, DECEMBER 27th. The first MEDIABASE Published charts of 2016 with recurrents being removed will post on SUNDAY, JANUARY 3rd. Addboard will reopen on WEDNESDAY, DECEMBER 30, 2015, with the first add deadlines of 2016 being MONDAY, JANUARY 4th and TUESDAY, JANUARY 5th."That passage does seem to support the notion that the positions count (Mediabase charts will post), but I can't for the life of me figure out why they don't show up in the "Last Week" column on the January Aircheck charts -- or why Cam isn't acknowledging that she already has a country radio #1.
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sabre14
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Post by sabre14 on Dec 20, 2015 12:28:33 GMT -5
This song hit #1 before the freeze though. If a song hits #1 next Sunday/Monday, they count. The positions count, just not a publication of Aircheck and Billboard for two weeks. No she didn't? Blake Shelton had the last number one before the chart freeze. Yes, there won't be a issue of Aircheck this week but the actual freeze isn't until the Christmas holiday where stations play non-stop Christmas music. I guess the fact there are two weeks without a chart issue constitutes as the freeze but the point is that her #1 counts. The positions are still kept track by labels.
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Libra
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Post by Libra on Dec 20, 2015 13:39:08 GMT -5
I would infer the same as indulge is, above - that she's going for #1 on both charts. This being the MB "freeze" time is nothing more than happenstance.
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Post by Deleted on Dec 20, 2015 14:29:11 GMT -5
kanimal is correct in that the published Mediabase charts are done for the year, and I think he brings up a really good question (in wondering why Cam hasn't acknowledged this as a #1). If this had been any other week, I am sure Cam would have announced via social media that "Burning House" is a #1 song. But because Mediabase doesn't officially publish today or next Sunday, it seems that her team isn't claiming this as a normal #1 like they typically would on any other Sunday. And so, because of the situation with Mediabase right now, it seems that Sony is indeed going for the Billboard #1 as well. Cam's social media seems to support this. From her Facebook page today: I think she's got a pretty good chance to edge ahead of Thomas Rhett and take the #1 on both charts, but Mediabase is a little weird this time of year in that they don't publish an official issue (of Aircheck) -- Billboard doesn't issue the Billboard Country Update either but they still publish an official chart on their website. I know sabre14 is the Mediabase expert, but I seem to remember a few years ago that Broken Bow didn't exactly claim Jason Aldean's "My Kinda Party" as a #1. "My Kinda Party" went #1 on Mediabase during the holiday season but there was no official chart, and it 'only' peaked at #2 on Billboard so BBR obviously couldn't claim it as a #1 there. Again, I could be wrong, but I don't recall ever seeing a "thank you country radio for getting us to #1 [on Mediabase]" ad from BBR when "My Kinda Party" went #1 on Mediabase right around Christmastime, and I remember thinking that was kinda strange. Or maybe I don't remember it because it's all my imagination. Who knows. Anyway... PS: I'm not a fan of the term "freeze" (I'm not speaking to a particular person here btw). The charts don't freeze. They get weird, with songs having big negatives and big positives after that, but there is still always music being played on all panel stations. I prefer the term "slowdown" given that the influx of Christmas music slows down all of the regular music, and of course the chart also slows because labels generally don't work singles to radio that much (if at all) during the 2-3 week period encompassing Christmas and New Year's. Just my 2 cents :)
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sabre14
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Post by sabre14 on Dec 20, 2015 14:52:36 GMT -5
It wouldn't make sense to have labels not count MB these two weeks since they go out of their way to count them the rest of the year. I don't remember a thank you from BBR when "My Kinda Party" hit #1on MB either but like jhomes87 said, songs just have a huge negative then a huge positive over Christmas -- songs are still getting played normal other than that short amount of time so I see no good reason why labels wouldn't claim #1 on either chart this time of year. I'm glad Sony's going for both charts though. Thomas will likely stay #1 on Billboard for at least two weeks after this. BBR is apparently going for #1 the week on MB at least after Christmas, which really ticks me off since Jason's song is not connecting with listeners and it makes me cringe watching BBR trying to level it's airplay.
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