The Top Artist of the 2010s Decade Discussion

[Clode]

Taylor Swift, Bruno Mars, or Katy Perry??? Which one of these three artists will be crowned the top artist when the Decade ends!

[carrieidol1]

I feel like there was a thread already made about this? But I could be wrong... I think right now, Taylor Swift has it. However, Adele's next album could do her in. I think when all is said and done, it will be between the two of them. Other contenders are Katy Perry, Justin Timberlake, Bruno Mars, and Rihanna. But I really think it's going to come down to Adele and Taylor.

[Glove Slap]

Taylor. Easily.

Now that they're including touring data as well, her stadium selling power seals it even further. Adele doesn't stack up since she doesn't like playing big venues.

The albums act should be her easily as well barring something majorly unforeseen. As for the Hot 100, right now I'd put it between Rihanna and Katy Perry, with a slight advantage to the former. I wouldn't count Bruno Mars out either. Taylor will be high here as well, and those pre-release songs will help her too, but overall there is still a sizable gap between her and Rihanna.

[mamooshka]

BRUNO is numero UNO !!!

[born]

Taylor, Katy and Rihanna will be up for this. Especially Taylor and Rihanna. Let's see how RiRi's upcoming album performs.

[icefire9]

Taylor definitely is the favorite.

Regardless I think that Taylor Swift, Katy Perry, Adele, Rihanna, and Bruno Mars will make up the top 5 (not necessarily in that order).

[Enigma.]

Rihanna is not even a competition here, her album success is not strong enough. I'd put Ed Sheeran above her, especially regarding that he's still a rising star and half of the decade to go.

+Also Nicki Minaj and Drake

[when the pawn...]

1 Taylor Swift
2 Adele
3 Katy Perry
4 Bruno Mars
5 Rihanna
Lady Gaga, Drake, Justin Bieber, Nicki Minaj, One Direction, Maroon 5 and Eminem will probably be up there as well. For Justin Timberlake and Beyonce, we'll see how much more music they put out before 2020.

[icefire9]

Jun 15, 2015 8:31:28 GMT -5 Enigma. said:

Rihanna is not even a competition here, her album success is not strong enough. I'd put Ed Sheeran above her, especially regarding that he's still a rising star and half of the decade to go.

+Also Nicki Minaj and Drake

Ed Sheeran's most recent album has sold 1.4 million in the U.S. Rihanna last 3 albums (which are all in the 2010s) sold 1.76, 1.12, and 1.11 million each. In other words, Ed Sheeran doesn't actually outsell Rihanna's albums in any significant way. 

Nicki Minaj doesn't fare much better. Pink Friday is almost at 2x platinum, but her new album has only reach 600,000 sales.

Drake is the only artist you mentioned that actually outperforms Rihanna in Album sales. (w/ 1.5 million, 2.1 million, and 1.6 million for his albums in the 2010s) but even he doesn't outsell her that much.  Certainly not enough to overcome her massive singles advantage.

[ILLUSION]

The only and overtly obvious answer to this question is Taylor Swift, just flip open her chart/sales/touring record and that's all the evidence you need

[Enigma.]

Jun 15, 2015 11:46:45 GMT -5 icefire9 said:

Jun 15, 2015 8:31:28 GMT -5 Enigma. said:

Rihanna is not even a competition here, her album success is not strong enough. I'd put Ed Sheeran above her, especially regarding that he's still a rising star and half of the decade to go.

+Also Nicki Minaj and Drake

Ed Sheeran's most recent album has sold 1.4 million in the U.S. Rihanna last 3 albums (which are all in the 2010s) sold 1.76, 1.12, and 1.11 million each. In other words, Ed Sheeran doesn't actually outsell Rihanna's albums in any significant way. 

Nicki Minaj doesn't fare much better. Pink Friday is almost at 2x platinum, but her new album has only reach 600,000 sales.

Drake is the only artist you mentioned that actually outperforms Rihanna in Album sales. (w/ 1.5 million, 2.1 million, and 1.6 million for his albums in the 2010s) but even he doesn't outsell her that much.  Certainly not enough to overcome her massive singles advantage.

At the moment she's obviously ahead, but can't see her really maintaining that 2010-2012 success for years to come. But of course it's not that certain that Ed Sheeran can get hits in 2019 either.

[bornfearless2000]

Taylor Swift.

Her albums sales destroy all the competitions.
Her singles sales destroy all the competitions.
Her tours stats destroy all the competitions.

[imbondz]

Jun 15, 2015 11:39:39 GMT -5 when the pawn... said:

1 Taylor Swift
2 Adele
3 Katy Perry
4 Bruno Mars
5 Rihanna
Lady Gaga, Drake, Justin Bieber, Nicki Minaj, One Direction, Maroon 5 and Eminem will probably be up there as well. For Justin Timberlake and Beyonce, we'll see how much more music they put out before 2020.

If Adeles next album is huge I'll give her 2nd. But right now Katy Perry, Bruno Mars and Rihanna have to be above her. Imo

[when the pawn...]

Jun 17, 2015 20:57:11 GMT -5 imbondz said:

Jun 15, 2015 11:39:39 GMT -5 when the pawn... said:

1 Taylor Swift
2 Adele
3 Katy Perry
4 Bruno Mars
5 Rihanna
Lady Gaga, Drake, Justin Bieber, Nicki Minaj, One Direction, Maroon 5 and Eminem will probably be up there as well. For Justin Timberlake and Beyonce, we'll see how much more music they put out before 2020.

If Adeles next album is huge I'll give her 2nd. But right now Katy Perry, Bruno Mars and Rihanna have to be above her. Imo

A lot is riding on the follow-up. I don't think it'll be anything close to 21 but I think a safe prediction would be one big hit and 3 million in album sales. That would put her album sales past 15 million which seems like enough to make up for Katy/Bruno/Rihanna's Hot 100 lead.

One thing is for sure - it's going to take a mega-star to challenge Taylor Swift for #1. With touring figures included (in addition to her blistering track record with album sales and single success), it's really difficult to imagine anyone overtaking her.

[85la]

Kind of sad...in 2010, who would've thought that half way into the decade, Lady Gaga would no longer be a top contender. A dream scenario would be if she were able to come back huge with her next couple albums, but that's very much wishful thinking.

[Glove Slap]

Jun 17, 2015 20:57:11 GMT -5 imbondz said:

Jun 15, 2015 11:39:39 GMT -5 when the pawn... said:

1 Taylor Swift
2 Adele
3 Katy Perry
4 Bruno Mars
5 Rihanna
Lady Gaga, Drake, Justin Bieber, Nicki Minaj, One Direction, Maroon 5 and Eminem will probably be up there as well. For Justin Timberlake and Beyonce, we'll see how much more music they put out before 2020.

If Adeles next album is huge I'll give her 2nd. But right now Katy Perry, Bruno Mars and Rihanna have to be above her. Imo

Adele's touring numbers are virtually nonexistent. I can't see her getting above Katy and Bruno with those factored in. They are likely to do more arena tours, she's not.

[bornfearless2000]

I read (i forgot where) that Adele doesn't like doing big arena concert. She's sticking with the small hall concert. So this really disadvantages in this position. BUT with her album and single sales, she's still one of the biggest stars right now.

[DJ General]

Ed Sheeran is a dark horse for sure. His next album could be a huge one. He has been slowly building his fan base and now this era is shutting down and more and more people are waiting for new music.

Eminem could surprise as well, especially if he gets another "Rihanna" sized hit. He could easily put out 2 more albums before the decade ends if he inclines. They will both sell easily 1 million+ units with minimal promotion. But like Adele, he does not tour at all really. Even less than her. and rarely ever do any promotion. I do believe if he actually did more, he would probably take it away. Plus if he markets the album as his final one, it will be even bigger.

Taylor Swift is currently the safe choice. Who knows what will happen with Adele. She will have a huge week to start off with the curiousity factor, but I do think waiting so long was really a very poor decision. If the album doesn't come out this year, she's in HUGE trouble. She's been away far too long.

[when the pawn...]

How is Ed Sheeran in the running to be #1 on this list?

According to the Hot 100 Decade thread, Taylor Swift has 5.1 million points and Ed Sheeran is nearing 1.5 million points. His album sales are about 2.6 million, while Swift's are past 14 million (or is it 15 million by now?). Ed Sheeran does very well in touring but Taylor is playing sold out stadiums. Both are doing very well right now but Swift continues to outpace him...by a lot. Even if the tides turn and Sheeran becomes the biggest star of the 2nd half of this decade, it would take a 21-size era (or two) to attempt to catch up to Taylor, as she will likely have another couple huge albums.

Adele doesn't tour and neither does Eminem so considering how that component tipped the scaled for 1D and Katy on the 2014 list, it puts them at a significant disadvantage. I heard rumors about a Swift-size tour for Adele next year but who knows if that comes true.

With further declining album sales (and Taylor continuing to BEAST on the Billboard 200 despite no Spotify, etc.), I find it REALLY hard to imagine her not finishing the decade at #1. Before 1989, I thought it might have still been up in the air but I think it's over. It would take a Dixie Chicks-level backlash against Taylor while Adele, Katy, Bruno, Rihanna or Gaga mounts the biggest 2 consecutive eras of his/her respective career.

[DJ General]

As I was saying, Ed Sheeran could have a 1989 or 21 sized era with album number 3. Anything is possible. He at least has a CHANCE. Unlike many other artists. Not saying it is a done deal or anything, but there is still nearly 5 years to go. It's a bit of a silly thread to begin with as there can be plenty of shifts in 5 years

[Glove Slap]

Do we know whether the method of including touring will be retroactively done for the first 4 years of the decade?

That would definitely cause further shifts. Maroon 5 would probably solidify a top 10 placing, as would Lady Gaga.

I can't really see Ed Sheeran getting further than a top 20/top 15 placing. Even if his next album was huge, it just comes down to the issue of not enough time. His success on the Hot 100 aside from Thinking Out Loud hasn't been on the same level as multiple big hits from Bruno, Katy, Maroon 5, Rihanna, Gaga or other acts. The gap in that component is massive right now. It's a similar story with Adele too. Even if she does an arena or stadium tour now, it wouldn't even come close still because Taylor would have had 3 massive tours, as well as the last leg of the Fearless tour. Katy would have had 2. Adele has some theater shows from 2011. Assuming that Taylor and Katy go out on the road again sometime in the next 2-3 years, they'd probably make up what ground Adele made up.

I see the top 10 consisting of the following names.

Taylor Swift
Bruno Mars
Katy Perry
Rihanna
Drake
Maroon 5
Adele
Eminem

Those 8 have a clear shot imo. Even half of their success from here on out should end them in the top region. I can't see One Direction functioning through the end of the decade, but top 20 is more than possible for them. I can see Beyonce and Justin Timberlake making this region as well depending on their release schedules. They suffer from lack of strong continuous activity on the Hot 100 compared to a lot of names, but their name value can sell out virtually all markets. It just depends how long they stay on the road for.

As for the rest, there's several contenders. Nicki Minaj and Lady Gaga come to mind, but that will depend on the retroactive touring data. If it's included, I can see Gaga squeaking over Nicki.

[when the pawn...]

I would have to think that if touring data is included for 2014-2019, it will be retro-actively included for 2010-2013. Seems pretty unfair otherwise? But who knows. Does streaming data from 2010-2011 get thrown into Hot 100 data (not that it would be that big of a difference)?

As for 2010 - now, I think Taylor towers over everyone else with Katy #2, and Bruno, Rihanna and Adele fighting for #3. I think Bieber, Drake, Gaga, M5 and Eminem are probably safely the next 5. Nicki, 1D, JT and Beyonce somewhere beneath that. Maybe Mumford, Kanye, Luke Bryan, Jason Aldean, Lady Antebellum in there? Sam Smith and Ed Sheeran could break in if they continue their momentum.

[jjose712]

Jun 30, 2015 17:08:39 GMT -5 DJ General said:

As I was saying, Ed Sheeran could have a 1989 or 21 sized era with album number 3. Anything is possible. He at least has a CHANCE. Unlike many other artists. Not saying it is a done deal or anything, but there is still nearly 5 years to go. It's a bit of a silly thread to begin with as there can be plenty of shifts in 5 years

I don't think that's really possible. Ed is a big artist right now, and unlike Sam Smith, he did it twice so it's not unthinkable to expect he will continue to sell well, but i don't think he has the appeal of Adele or Taylor Swift to sell that amount of albums.

If one male singer has a chance that's Bruno Mars.

[DJ General]

As long as Eminem makes it, I'm good

[Clauss]

I don't see anyone else having a 21 sized era. Not even Adele

[Devil Marlena Nylund]

Of course it's possible, but to sit here and speculate on who could have such an era is pointless and ridiculous - especially considering that before 21, most people here didn't know who Adele was.

[85la]

Jul 1, 2015 0:10:18 GMT -5 Glove Slap said:

Do we know whether the method of including touring will be retroactively done for the first 4 years of the decade?

That would definitely cause further shifts. Maroon 5 would probably solidify a top 10 placing, as would Lady Gaga.

I can't really see Ed Sheeran getting further than a top 20/top 15 placing. Even if his next album was huge, it just comes down to the issue of not enough time. His success on the Hot 100 aside from Thinking Out Loud hasn't been on the same level as multiple big hits from Bruno, Katy, Maroon 5, Rihanna, Gaga or other acts. The gap in that component is massive right now. It's a similar story with Adele too. Even if she does an arena or stadium tour now, it wouldn't even come close still because Taylor would have had 3 massive tours, as well as the last leg of the Fearless tour. Katy would have had 2. Adele has some theater shows from 2011. Assuming that Taylor and Katy go out on the road again sometime in the next 2-3 years, they'd probably make up what ground Adele made up.

I see the top 10 consisting of the following names.

Taylor Swift
Bruno Mars
Katy Perry
Rihanna
Drake
Maroon 5
Adele
Eminem

Those 8 have a clear shot imo. Even half of their success from here on out should end them in the top region. I can't see One Direction functioning through the end of the decade, but top 20 is more than possible for them. I can see Beyonce and Justin Timberlake making this region as well depending on their release schedules. They suffer from lack of strong continuous activity on the Hot 100 compared to a lot of names, but their name value can sell out virtually all markets. It just depends how long they stay on the road for.

As for the rest, there's several contenders. Nicki Minaj and Lady Gaga come to mind, but that will depend on the retroactive touring data. If it's included, I can see Gaga squeaking over Nicki.

Touring data was added for 2011 and on, as well as social media activity and maybe a couple other things; this was the year they made a major change to how the top artists were calculated. If there are no more major changes to the formula, they might not do anything, however if there are, they might use an adjusted points-type system.

[slw84]

song wise - I think Bruno mars can take it
album wise - taylor if adele comes out with 70% of the sales of 21 and manages to do a GH album or another by 2019 the game might be hers. For now, I'll stick with Taylor
radio wise - Katy
streaming wise - Rihanna


When adding all of it up US and WW

I think Katy can take it IF she has another era of hits. Rihanna's are split between 2007-2009 and 2010-present and until recently her blockbuster albums of 2010s have usually generated 2 big top 40s perhaps if she averaged 4-5 for all her 2010s album eras the gap would be smaller.

I feel like it's Katy's too lose and if she does then Taylor or Bruno might be nearby

Rihanna would be next in line but after taylor or bruno since 2007-2009 won't be counted.
If Adele has at least 70% of the blockbuster her '21 era' was then I think she'd push Rihanna down to 5 and nip at taylor and bruno's heels but Katy would have to have no more hits while the others have major hits for me to believe she wouldn't end up the 2010s artist of the decade.

[velaxti]

Jun 30, 2015 0:12:52 GMT -5 85la said:

Kind of sad...in 2010, who would've thought that half way into the decade, Lady Gaga would no longer be a top contender. A dream scenario would be if she were able to come back huge with her next couple albums, but that's very much wishful thinking.

This was part of the reason for her downfall in the first place though. She came out of nowhere, had a couple of big hits then got a rabid fan-base who were going all over the Internet insisting she's going to be one of the biggest artists of all time, that she will be dominating pop music for 20 years, that she created dance music and that every other female pop star were copying her, some even somehow copying her before she got famous! lol Her fan-base might not have realised it (and probably still don't), but when you behave like that you're gonna piss of pretty much every everybody else who's into music...

I'm glad this is all over now. I think she will get some big hits again, but people will always call them flops since they'll compare them to her 2009 success. This is what happened with Applause and Do What U Want, those songs were legitimate hits, but because they weren't as big as you'd expect from Lady Gaga, everybody was shocked they weren't bigger and branded them flops. People like Rihanna do better in this sense, since she flops all the time, and still gets a hit many months later, so there isn't the high expectations for her.

As for who will be artist of the decade, Billboard said a while ago that so far in this decade it's Rihanna. Not sure if she can keep it up though, I think she'll be less successful in the 2nd half of the decade than in the 1st half. I think Bruno Mars could be a good bet. Adele could do it too if she releases a couple more fairly successful albums (the 21 era alone would surely put her in the top 10).

[85la]

So I thought I would revive this thread since a lot has happened in the last year and there have been some major game changers (i.e. Adele, Justin Bieber). The following numbers are where each artist ranked on Billboard's Top Artists list per each year of the decade so far. The artists I provided are those who have been mentioned in this thread, and who I think are top contenders for at least the top 5-ish. I have some others as well, and might be able to look up some more on request if I have time.

Of course, it doesn’t provide a completely accurate indication of where artists will ultimately rank on the decade-end list, as they might use a different formula than they did for each individual year, but it does give a pretty good idea.


Billboard Year-End Top Artist Rankings:

Taylor Swift
2010: 2
2011: 8
2012: 3
2013: 2
2014: 4
2015: 1
2016: 16

Rihanna
2010: 9
2011: 2
2012: 2
2013: 4
2014: 47
2015: 26
2016: 6

Bruno Mars
2010: 22
2011: 6
2012: 19
2013: 1
2014: 26
2015: 30
2016: -

Katy Perry
2010: 11
2011: 3
2012: 7
2013: 14
2014: 2
2015: 21
2016: 91

One Direction
2010: -
2011: -
2012: 10
2013: 8
2014: 1
2015: 5
2016: 26

Lady Gaga
2010: 1
2011: 4
2012: 17
2013: 25
2014: 23
2015: 95
2016: 76

Drake
2010: 10
2011: 23
2012: 4
2013: 11
2014: 16
2015: 4
2016: 3

Adele
2010: -
2011: 1
2012: 1
2013: 48
2014: -
2015: 60
2016: 1

Beyonce
2010: 50
2011: 25
2012: 48
2013: 37
2014: 3
2015: 24
2016: 4

Justin Bieber
2010: 8
2011: 9
2012: 5
2013: 12
2014: 18
2015: 15
2016: 2


A few thoughts:

Barring someone unexpected completely slaying for the next three years, it seems Taylor still has the clear advantage for #1. Adele might be her closest competition, but even for her it’s a bit of a long shot, as 25 would have to continue to do well into next year, and her next album would have to come out at the latest by early 2019, and would have to do nearly or as well as her previous two albums.

People like Rihanna, Drake, and Justin Bieber have held up consistently well for the decade so far, the latter two arguably being more popular than ever, and if not the top, they might have a good chance for the runner up spot.

Katy Perry, Bruno Mars, and Lady Gaga are looking less and less like top contenders; they might not even end up in the top 5. But of course a lot of it depends, and this applies to every artist, on how their current and future albums do and how many more albums they release before the end of the decade.