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Post by Deleted on Feb 20, 2016 10:04:54 GMT -5
I think the push was on in general this week. I know there was no add in Billboard or Country Aircheck but there was a little message in my AllAccess email daily saying this
"Calling "Dibs" on your Max Rotation Now!" Now I still think they are going for 2 weeks but I could see the possibility of them giving up at the end of this week.
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sabre14
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Post by sabre14 on Feb 20, 2016 13:26:31 GMT -5
Nothing has been a surprise this week for me...except that 174 spin gain by "Dibs" today. I think that if Black River gains another +100 spins and 1.0 million in audience, they'll probably get the Mediabase #1 by tomorrow morning. But that all depends on if Broken Bow decides to rally their losses tomorrow. If they have another dip like today, they will lose out on the Mediabase #1. The problem Granger's song was facing was that BBR put a huge two week #1 push before this week and radio is eager to let go of "Backroad Song." It's not as if the label decided to not continue their efforts, because they clearly were done with pushing Granger's song, but I'm sure they want #1 for a second week and the losses are a little greater than they'd hoped.
If Black River can pull off a #1 at both charts, then perhaps they will call off their full week #1 push next week but as of now, I still see them going for #1 (or staying there) next week.
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Post by 43dudleyvillas on Feb 20, 2016 14:07:43 GMT -5
This would hardly be the first time I'm wrong, but between "Dibs"' weak callout, weak sales (it took $0.69 discounting to even get "Dibs" to #13 on the Country Digital Songs chart, where it had been languishing in the mid-20s) and how Kelsea Ballerini and her team can't seem to wait to get "Peter Pan" out there, my inclination is to think that this week's push is it for "Dibs." The song's weak connection metrics suggest to me that no matter how much money Black River Entertainment is willing to shell out to buy another #1, programmers have told Kelsea's team that "Dibs" isn't a song that they are willing to sustain in high rotation for multiple weeks. Moreover, this tweet from "Dibs" co-writer Josh Kerr from yesterday gives me a one-week Mediabase push vibe (though co-hosting Country Countdown USA this week also means that that an extra "Dibs" spin would count toward the current Billboard week): Speaking of Josh Kerr, he's the son of Black River Entertainment CEO Gordon Kerr, who is the brother of Black River Entertainment co-owner Kim Kerr-Pegula. Gordon's daughter and Josh's sister Hannah Kerr is the only artist signed to Black River's Christian imprint M2T. Josh's first publishing deal was with Black River and he is, if I'm not mistaken, Kelsea's boyfriend. Talk about a family business (for the sake of sourcing, much of this is covered in this Tennessean article, but not the Josh Kerr part). In any event, I think that Black River and Kelsea would be smart to move on from "Dibs." They have to have noticed that "Dibs" hasn't connected well and that in the time that it has been on the charts, we've seen two new female breakthroughs with considerably more industry heat and a stronger sales profile (Cam's "Burning House" and Maren Morris's "My Church"). Kelsea and her team have successfully converted her initial breakthrough into full-on radio acceptance of her as a hitmaker, but it seems to me that she is (rightfully) anxious to show that she can hit with something more substantive than silly, flirty pop songs that pander to bros. After all, she is really the only person Maren Morris could have been referring to when, in an interview printed in early December 2015, she said: In any event, I do think that Kelsea is here to stay, and while I take a jaundiced view of her breakthrough as one driven by marketing more than quality music that genuinely connected, I think that she is smart and capable enough to create music that I find more convincing (or, at least, less annoying. Baby steps.).
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onebuffalo
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Post by onebuffalo on Feb 20, 2016 14:31:02 GMT -5
Sales for Dibs are terrible. 286,000 so far. That is a far cry for Kelsea Ballerini, whose first single, Love Me Like You Mean It is gold. Even the #1 song of the week, Backroad Song is sitting at 215,000 sold. Cam is looking at platinum shortly with Burning House.
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Post by Deleted on Feb 20, 2016 14:32:22 GMT -5
This would hardly be the first time I'm wrong, but between "Dibs"' weak callout, weak sales (it took $0.69 discounting to even get "Dibs" to #13 on the Country Digital Songs chart, where it had been languishing in the mid-20s) and how Kelsea Ballerini and her team can't seem to wait to get "Peter Pan" out there, my inclination is to think that this week's push is it for "Dibs." The song's weak connection metrics suggest to me that no matter how much money Black River Entertainment is willing to shell out to buy another #1, programmers have told Kelsea's team that "Dibs" isn't a song that they are willing to sustain in high rotation for multiple weeks. Moreover, this tweet from "Dibs" co-writer Josh Kerr from yesterday gives me a one-week Mediabase push vibe (though co-hosting Country Countdown USA this week also means that that an extra "Dibs" spin would count toward the current Billboard week): Speaking of Josh Kerr, he's the son of Black River Entertainment CEO Gordon Kerr, who is the brother of Black River Entertainment co-owner Kim Kerr-Pegula. Gordon's daughter and Josh's sister Hannah Kerr is the only artist signed to Black River's Christian imprint M2T. Josh's first publishing deal was with Black River and he is, if I'm not mistaken, Kelsea's boyfriend. Talk about a family business (for the sake of sourcing, much of this is covered in this Tennessean article, but not the Josh Kerr part). In any event, I think that Black River and Kelsea would be smart to move on from "Dibs." They have to have noticed that "Dibs" hasn't connected well and that in the time that it has been on the charts, we've seen two new female breakthroughs with considerably more industry heat and a stronger sales profile (Cam's "Burning House" and Maren Morris's "My Church"). Kelsea and her team have successfully converted her initial breakthrough into full-on radio acceptance of her as a hitmaker, but it seems to me that she is (rightfully) anxious to show that she can hit with something more substantive than silly, flirty pop songs that pander to bros. After all, she is really the only person Maren Morris could have been referring to when, in an interview printed in early December 2015, she said:In any event, I do think that Kelsea is here to stay, and while I take a jaundiced view of her breakthrough as one driven by marketing more than quality music that genuinely connected, I think that she is smart and capable enough to create music that I find more convincing (or, at least, less annoying. Baby steps.). You're right about Josh Kerr being Kelsea's boyfriend as she said on the radio once on I think it was Taste Of Country Nights she said in an interview. I do think Kelsea can get the MB #1 but that BB #1 could get sticky especially if Kelsea has a bad update Monday morning. CCUSA will be on tonight for me so I'll report back if it's exclusively an acoustic or studio version of "Dibs", if it's the acoustic that will probably mean that Black River is aiming more for the MB #1 if it's studio version then it'll count more for both Billboard and Mediabase. If their is one thing that might work against Kelsea is the fact that this weekends show "Backroad Song" is the hottest song out of those available. So if Kelsea only has the acoustic for CCUSA that'll help her for MB but Granger could have the edge for BB because if I'm not mistaken BB only accounts for studio version of song.
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sabre14
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Post by sabre14 on Feb 20, 2016 14:33:47 GMT -5
Josh's first publishing deal was with Black River and he is, if I'm not mistaken, Kelsea's boyfriend. He is Kelsea's boyfriend. Not that it really should matter but for anyone curious, lol. I hadn't seen Josh's tweet, so thanks for the heads up 43dudleyvillas. Ideally, Black River would have preferred "Dibs" to have peaked a little earlier (the week of CRS would have been perfect, since "Peter Pan" was introduced as Keslea's upcoming single during "Indiepalooza"). Again, if they have the update like they did today, I think the Mediabase #1 is theirs.
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Post by Deleted on Feb 20, 2016 18:33:55 GMT -5
I for one am not at all surprised by Black River's push. As I posted a couple days ago, even though Granger had a huge lead to start the week, it became apparent pretty quickly that his lead wasn't insurmountable. And as 43dudleyvillas noted in her excellent post, "Dibs" hasn't been connecting very well. I noticed several weeks ago that it was put on sale at iTunes (69 cents) and yet it's still not selling well. The call-out hasn't been very good either, probably because the vast majority of country listeners can't relate to the song at all. I mean, maybe some high schoolers would flirt around and "call dibs" on someone they like, but that's about it. I do think Black River was a little bit hesitant at the beginning of the week (hence the no "power up for #1" ads) simply because Granger's lead was so big and they probably weren't sure if they could catch him (in which case they might have saved their resources and last ditch effort for next week in an attempt to hold off Carrie)...but then after Granger started to show his vulnerability in the first 2-3 days of the week, catching him proved to be doable. I started to think on Wednesday that this would be Kelsea's push week because I think radio is ready to drop this one like a hot potato. I've just had the sense that radio wanted to drop "Dibs" a few weeks ago already, but with the feel-good story surrounding Kelsea (meaning, the fact that a new female artist has been able to follow up a breakthrough hit with another big hit) and then some solid marketing and promotion by her label, they were able to persuade radio to keep this one going just long enough that it would have a chance at #1 shortly after Kelsea's performance at CRS. I also think Carrie Underwood was another significant factor. She's coming in fast which meant that this week was Black River's only chance to get "Dibs" to #1. So I expect that Kelsea will sneak ahead of Granger in tomorrow's Mediabase update, but perhaps Granger can hang on to the Billboard #1 if Black River's push only goes through the end of the day today. If Black River keeps pushing through Sunday, then maybe they can snag the Billboard #1, too. Josh Kerr's tweet leads me to believe that they're only focusing on Mediabase, though. In any case, I expect "Dibs" to collapse big time this coming week.
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Post by Deleted on Feb 20, 2016 18:48:43 GMT -5
If there is one thing that's concerning me about Kelsea Ballerini push is how many of those 174 spins are non-studio spins. If a lot of these spins we are bound to see with "Dibs" aren't of the studio version it could spell trouble. Also "Backroad Song" is getting a little help this weekend as it's going to be deemed the hottest song of the week for CCUSA and that's guaranteed to be the studio version so unless Kelsea has the studio version of "Dibs" for CCUSA, I think the label will fall short of the MB #1.
Sure enough it's studio version of the song that's going to bode well for Kelsea to hit the top of both charts.
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Post by Deleted on Feb 20, 2016 19:16:19 GMT -5
If there is one thing that's concerning me about Kelsea Ballerini push is how many of those 174 spins are non-studio spins. If a lot of these spins we are bound to see with "Dibs" aren't of the studio version it could spell trouble. Also "Backroad Song" is getting a little help this weekend as it's going to be deemed the hottest song of the week for CCUSA and that's guaranteed to be the studio version so unless Kelsea has the studio version of "Dibs" for CCUSA, I think the label will fall short of the MB #1. I don't think they'll fall short on Mediabase. The CC-USA spins are mostly felt on Sundays, and Sunday airplay marks the start of a new Mediabase tracking period. Some stations do play CC-USA on Saturdays but in general we don't see the countdown show effects until the Monday morning update. As of this morning's update Granger was only about 140 spins ahead of Kelsea, and the swing in spins between the two of them was 333 today alone, so I think Kelsea is likely to have anywhere from 150 to 200 more total spins tomorrow morning than Granger does. And the audience swing today was almost 2.2 million...one more swing like that would have Kelsea only about 700k behind Granger tomorrow morning (but again, Kelsea should have the advantage in spins, which will probably be enough to give her the points lead as well). None of this is taking into account the fact that Granger has been trending downward more and more everyday. If we just take a look at Granger's last 4 days: 02/17: -53 spins, -501k audience 02/18: -120 spins, -572k audience 02/19: -121 spins, -711k audience 02/20: -159 spins, -1.244m audience I don't necessarily think that that means Granger will lose 1.5 million in tomorrow's update, but a loss of 1.2 to 1.5 mil is certainly more likely than a loss of less than 1 mil. Even a more conservative drop (-150 spins, -1 mil in audience) would probably allow Kelsea to move ahead. I think Kelsea's got about an 85% chance of taking the Mediabase #1, but probably only about a 30% chance for the Billboard #1.
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Post by Deleted on Feb 20, 2016 19:24:17 GMT -5
If there is one thing that's concerning me about Kelsea Ballerini push is how many of those 174 spins are non-studio spins. If a lot of these spins we are bound to see with "Dibs" aren't of the studio version it could spell trouble. Also "Backroad Song" is getting a little help this weekend as it's going to be deemed the hottest song of the week for CCUSA and that's guaranteed to be the studio version so unless Kelsea has the studio version of "Dibs" for CCUSA, I think the label will fall short of the MB #1. I don't think they'll fall short on Mediabase. The CC-USA spins are mostly felt on Sundays, and Sunday airplay marks the start of a new Mediabase tracking period. Some stations do play CC-USA on Saturdays but in general we don't see the countdown show effects until the Monday morning update. As of this morning's update Granger was only about 140 spins ahead of Kelsea, and the swing in spins between the two of them was 333 today alone, so I think Kelsea is likely to have anywhere from 150 to 200 more total spins tomorrow morning than Granger does. And the audience swing today was almost 2.2 million...one more swing like that would have Kelsea only about 700k behind Granger tomorrow morning (but again, Kelsea should have the advantage in spins, which will probably be enough to give her the points lead as well). None of this is taking into account the fact that Granger has been trending downward more and more everyday. If we just take a look at Granger's last 4 days: 02/17: -53 spins, -501k audience 02/18: -120 spins, -572k audience 02/19: -121 spins, -711k audience 02/20: -159 spins, -1.244m audience I don't necessarily think that that means Granger will lose 1.5 million in tomorrow's update, but a loss of 1.2 to 1.5 mil is certainly more likely than a loss of less than 1 mil. Even a more conservative drop (-150 spins, -1 mil in audience) would probably allow Kelsea to move ahead. I think Kelsea's got about an 85% chance of taking the Mediabase #1, but probably only about a 30% chance for the Billboard #1. Crap I meant BB actually stupid keyboard. The good news being studio version that helps Kelsea a bunch, however I haven't factored in Westwood One (I usually wait til Sundays to have that affect my predictions, which if I'm not mistaken if Granger loses spending Westwood One and Kelsea is gaining spins wouldn't that make Kelsea's chances on BB less likely.) I don't know exactly know how those spins are since I'll wait till tomorrow but I could see Westwood One being the decider factor.
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sabre14
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Post by sabre14 on Feb 21, 2016 11:45:03 GMT -5
"Dibs" is #1 on Mediabase this week. Kelsea's song gained nearly 200 spins and over 1.0 million in audience in today's update. Still remains to be seen if Black River can get to #1 on Billboard. I think that more depends on Granger's losses tomorrow.
This is the first time a solo female artist has had her first two singles go #1 on Mediabase/R&R since Carrie Underwood in 2006. If Kelsea can snag Billboard, it would be the first time a female artist's first two singles goes #1 on Billboard since Jamie O'Neal in 2001.
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Post by Deleted on Feb 21, 2016 12:04:07 GMT -5
Congrats are definitely going out to Kelsea Ballerini and her team for having two back to back #1s. I'm still convinced that this song hitting the top had more to do with Kelsea's radio momentum from "Love Me Like You Mean It" (which the video for it just hit 14 million views on YouTube) and the hype she's gotten with a lot of press and her label having a lot of resources and the radio friendliness of her songs.
I definitely however think that the release of "Peter Pan" will truly determine Kelsea's fate as the release schedule ahead is tough and with that being a third song could calm down Kelsea's momentum. What Kelsea has going for her is the CRS radio stuff and the whole first lady to have back to back #1s but I know that some might disagree with me here but I think "Dibs" arguably slowed her momentum down a little bit as it's been mentioned before of the rather bad callout scores and the rather mediocre at best sales so Black River had to really push this up and kind of had some decent timing (I think had Granger truly gone for the second week Kelsea Ballerini would have missed out), I could see "Peter Pan" being a really slow climber given the packed release schedule coming up or having a struggle and peaking in the teens (examples being "What We Ain't Got" "She Don't Love You") I am really excited to hear "Peter Pan" on the radio and I hope the sooner the better.
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sabre14
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Post by sabre14 on Feb 21, 2016 15:11:37 GMT -5
Kelsea has gained 4.0 million in total Mediabase audience since Monday, while Granger has lost 4.5 million in audience since Monday.
"Backroad Song" started the Billboard week up 8.2 million on "Dibs", so judging the Mediabase audience, the race for Billboard should be neck and neck as of Sunday. My guess is that Granger still has the lead by an ever so small margin, so it all depends on tomorrow's update and whether or not Granger can lose enough audience vs. Keslea's update.
Westwood One spins for both songs stayed flat over the past seven days (which only reflect Mediabase audience).
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onebuffalo
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Post by onebuffalo on Feb 21, 2016 15:31:36 GMT -5
Congratulations to Kelsea Ballerini, Black River, and the Pegulas for scoring back to back #1s!
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Post by 43dudleyvillas on Feb 21, 2016 17:49:14 GMT -5
Sales for Dibs are terrible. 286,000 so far. That is a far cry for Kelsea Ballerini, whose first single, Love Me Like You Mean It is gold. Even the #1 song of the week, Backroad Song is sitting at 215,000 sold. Cam is looking at platinum shortly with Burning House. While this is a good illustration of the extent to which "Burning House" connected relative to both "Dibs" and "Backroad Song," it is worth noting that "Love Me Like You Mean It" had its run prior to the launch of Apple Music's streaming service, while "Dibs" had its run after Apple Music's streaming service launched. While the biggest country hits used to be able to sell double platinum-plus (as "Girl Crush" did, mostly prior to the launch of Apple Music streaming), the launch of Apple Music streaming means today's biggest country hits (like "Burning House") sell platinum. It isn't actually "Dibs"' tally of 286k that strikes me as horrendous on its own. It's more the fact that "Dibs" took 33 weeks to pick up those 286K sales, an average of less than 8.7K downloads per week. Granger Smith's "Backroad Song" generated 215K sales over 32 weeks, a paltry 6.7K per week (and from what I remember, he hit #1 on Apple Music before he was even signed and charting, so the amount of downloads generated during "Backroad Song"'s radio run is even smaller). The Luke Bryan/Karen Fairchild duet "Home Alone Tonight," a top-10 mainstay throughout its chart run and an undeniably big (if awful) hit from the genre's current best-seller, has accumulated 339K downloads to date, which doesn't feel like a big total either. The difference is that it accumulated those sales through 16 weeks on the airplay charts, an average of 21.2K downloads per week. My point in bringing up "Home Alone Tonight" is not that "Dibs" failed because it didn't generate weekly sales like the latest single from the genre's biggest seller -- it was to illustrate that it takes more than total sales to show how a single hasn't connected. To wit: it became clear that "Dibs" sales weren't rising with airplay as it rose through the top-20 of the airplay chart. The inflection point seemed to come sometime around late October 2015, when, despite the release of the video and "Dibs" settling into the top-20 on the country airplay charts, the song's ranking on the Billboard Country Digital Songs chart really started to lag behind its airplay position and tailed off in absolute terms as well. This has remained the case through the present -- "Dibs"' only appearance in the Billboard Country Digital Songs top-20 was recently with the benefit of $0.69 discounting, and even then it failed to crack the top-10. This suggests that "Dibs" benefited from some interest early in its run based on its similarity to "Love Me Like You Mean It," but failed to sustain it through its own exposure.
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Post by Deleted on Feb 22, 2016 6:09:20 GMT -5
This morning's update:
Kelsea: +3 spins, +53k audience Granger: -110 spins, -950k audience
I'd say that Kelsea is virtually assured of finishing at #1 on tonight's Billboard chart, after officially securing the Mediabase #1 yesterday. Both songs got an extra spin on CC-USA on Sunday (Kelsea was the co-host, and "Backroad Song" was the hot song), and that extra spin for Kelsea was probably the difference between a small gain and a loss of maybe 300-400k in audience (and she would have decreased in total spins, too, if it weren't for that extra CC-USA spin).
On Billboard, Granger's lead over Kelsea was 8.2 million at the start of the week, and over the last 6 days, Granger has lost 5.5 million on Mediabase, while Kelsea has gained about 4.1 million. I expect Kelsea to finish ahead of Granger by about 500k on tonight's Billboard chart, maybe a little more.
Look for both "Dibs" and "Backroad Song" to fall hard this week (I actually think Kelsea will fall the hardest). Carrie seems most likely to take over at #1 a week from tonight.
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Post by The Brazilian Guy π§π· on Feb 22, 2016 7:44:06 GMT -5
I mean, it's great seeing a woman on top and I really like Kelsea's personality, but it's definitely interesting seeing this going to #01 considering how many greater and more popular singles by female artists missed the top recently - Smoke Break, Burning House, I Got the Boy.
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sabre14
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Post by sabre14 on Feb 22, 2016 11:58:48 GMT -5
considering how many greater and more popular singles by female artists missed the top recently - Smoke Break, Burning House, I Got the Boy. "Smoke Break" and "Burning House" were Mediabase #1's (I'm pretty certain you knew that but the labels count them as #1's). "I Got The Boy" went top 5 on Mediabase and narrowly missed the top 5 on Billboard -- Jana's song did not go #1 because it was extremely old in weeks charting and it's peak was due to the relentless promotion done by her label team. The majority of fans will count all of these as big hits and the fact some went #1, some went #2 and some only went top 5 will not matter -- all of them were played at nausea on the radio. Also, we don't know yet if Kelsea finished #1 on Billboard this evening, though I agree that it looks that way since Granger lost nearly 1.0 million in audience today while Kelsea stayed flat. I think Granger had the slight lead yesterday in audience but today, Kelsea leaped him by somewhere between 400k-700k in total Billboard audience.
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Post by trebor on Feb 22, 2016 13:30:02 GMT -5
Eventually managed to get past 300K track sales this week!
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Post by kanimal on Feb 22, 2016 13:40:51 GMT -5
To me, it's not necessarily that the sales are horrible (as shown above, they're pretty on par with a lot of recent country #1s) -- it's that they're not indicative of her resonating or making the overall impact media supporters (as well as these awards voters) want us to believe she's making. I actually felt this way about Love Me Like You Mean It as well.
Between the single sales and album sales, as well as general buzz over social media, etc, there really isn't anything to suggest the market sees her as *THE* new female country star. She doesn't seem to be any bigger than (and is arguably smaller than) a Cam or Maddie & Tae as an overall brand, and her breakthrough single definitely wasn't as big as their big singles.
I think she's talented and likable, and I'm glad there's another female voice with a consistent radio presence, but I just don't see her as this genre giant.
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onebuffalo
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Post by onebuffalo on Feb 22, 2016 15:37:08 GMT -5
Final MediaBase numbers:
3 1 KELSEA BALLERINI Dibs 8331 7490 841 58.79
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Post by The Brazilian Guy π§π· on Feb 22, 2016 16:07:44 GMT -5
considering how many greater and more popular singles by female artists missed the top recently - Smoke Break, Burning House, I Got the Boy. "Smoke Break" and "Burning House" were Mediabase #1's (I'm pretty certain you knew that but the labels count them as #1's). "I Got The Boy" went top 5 on Mediabase and narrowly missed the top 5 on Billboard -- Jana's song did not go #1 because it was extremely old in weeks charting and it's peak was due to the relentless promotion done by her label team. The majority of fans will count all of these as big hits and the fact some went #1, some went #2 and some only went top 5 will not matter -- all of them were played at nausea on the radio. Also, we don't know yet if Kelsea finished #1 on Billboard this evening, though I agree that it looks that way since Granger lost nearly 1.0 million in audience today while Kelsea stayed flat. I think Granger had the slight lead yesterday in audience but today, Kelsea leaped him by somewhere between 400k-700k in total Billboard audience. Yep, I know that... What I meant was that after a great string of recent hits by female artists missing the top spot on Billboard, seeing an (in my opinion) inferior and less impactful song getting there is sort of bittersweet. But then again, having women on top has (sadly) become such a rare event that I don't want this to come out as a criticism to Kelsea's achievement... I guess I just wanted to see those other songs getting there as well.
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sabre14
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Post by sabre14 on Feb 22, 2016 16:15:39 GMT -5
"Smoke Break" and "Burning House" were Mediabase #1's (I'm pretty certain you knew that but the labels count them as #1's). "I Got The Boy" went top 5 on Mediabase and narrowly missed the top 5 on Billboard -- Jana's song did not go #1 because it was extremely old in weeks charting and it's peak was due to the relentless promotion done by her label team. The majority of fans will count all of these as big hits and the fact some went #1, some went #2 and some only went top 5 will not matter -- all of them were played at nausea on the radio. Also, we don't know yet if Kelsea finished #1 on Billboard this evening, though I agree that it looks that way since Granger lost nearly 1.0 million in audience today while Kelsea stayed flat. I think Granger had the slight lead yesterday in audience but today, Kelsea leaped him by somewhere between 400k-700k in total Billboard audience. Yep, I know that... What I meant was that after a great string of recent hits by female artists missing the top spot on Billboard, seeing an (in my opinion) inferior and less impactful song getting there is sort of bittersweet. But then again, having women on top has (sadly) become such a rare event that I don't want this to come out as a criticism to Kelsea's achievement... I guess I just wanted to see those other songs getting there as well. I'm not as caught up on that stuff, tbh. I understand, since those that follow Billboard's Airplay chart religiously, having a song you love come up short is frustrating but to 95% of fans (maybe more) that doesn't matter. All of those song will be remembered by listeneres. Maybe it is because I'm getting older. When I was like 14 or 15, a song that I loved peaking at #2 pretty much destroyed my week, lol (think "Baby Girl"...in that case, a month). Now I kind of look at the broader scope and think "you know, the song becoming a hit is what counts and it shouldn't be sulked about -- missing #1 -- on whatever chart you fancy." Not saying anyone here does exactly that but I guess I've just been let down so many times in the past that it doesn't really bother me that much anymore. I'm glad you brought up in your own opinion, since I'm sure some like "Dibs" better than let's say "Burning House". I agree though, I much prefer Cam's song. It is nice to finally see some solo women break through at radio though.
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Post by The Brazilian Guy π§π· on Feb 22, 2016 16:36:47 GMT -5
I'm not as caught up on that stuff, tbh. I understand, since those that follow Billboard's Airplay chart religiously, having a song you love come up short is frustrating but to 95% of fans (maybe more) that doesn't matter. All of those song will be remembered by listeneres. Maybe it is because I'm getting older. When I was like 14 or 15, a song that I loved peaking at #2 pretty much destroyed my week, lol (think "Baby Girl"...in that case, a month). Now I kind of look at the broader scope and think "you know, the song becoming a hit is what counts and it shouldn't be sulked about -- missing #1 -- on whatever chart you fancy." Not saying anyone here does exactly that but I guess I've just been let down so many times in the past that it doesn't really bother me that much anymore. I don't get caught up that much either... i mean, I'm a Kacey Musgraves' fan after all! LOL... And even before that, I've been a fan of a long list of artists with low-key charts presence. Life has not been easy for me as a charts follower! LOL I'm glad you brought up in your own opinion, since I'm sure some like "Dibs" better than let's say "Burning House". I agree though, I much prefer Cam's song. Yeah... I'm sure there are may people who do like Dibs better than those songs. That's why I'm very careful with my wording, after all that's all subjective.
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rsmatto
6x Platinum Member
Joined: December 2008
Posts: 6,529
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Post by rsmatto on Feb 22, 2016 16:49:12 GMT -5
To me, it's not necessarily that the sales are horrible (as shown above, they're pretty on par with a lot of recent country #1s) -- it's that they're not indicative of her resonating or making the overall impact media supporters (as well as these awards voters) want us to believe she's making. I actually felt this way about Love Me Like You Mean It as well. Between the single sales and album sales, as well as general buzz over social media, etc, there really isn't anything to suggest the market sees her as *THE* new female country star. She doesn't seem to be any bigger than (and is arguably smaller than) a Cam or Maddie & Tae as an overall brand, and her breakthrough single definitely wasn't as big as their big singles. I think she's talented and likable, and I'm glad there's another female voice with a consistent radio presence, but I just don't see her as this genre giant. I don't think she's a genre giant yet, either. But she is certainly positioned to become one by album #2. Edited to add: Plus her sales + streams for "Dibs" will have it certified gold. If that's "horrible," then perhaps you follow the wrong genre.
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sabre14
Diamond Member
Vince Gill & the Muppets make everything better
Joined: October 2013
Posts: 26,919
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Post by sabre14 on Feb 22, 2016 20:54:31 GMT -5
"Dibs" is #1 on both Mediabase and Billboard. Kelsea had a 1.2 million audience lead on Granger tonight on Billboard Airplay.
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.indulgecountry
Diamond Member
Best Country Poster 2011, 2017, & 2018
"You left a mark on my face // And brought a dozen red flags in a vase"
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Post by .indulgecountry on Feb 22, 2016 21:10:19 GMT -5
Words can't describe how happy I am that this made it to #1 on both charts, thus making her the first female to start her career with back-to-back #1s in 15 years. Granted, I do agree with others in this thread that I would certainly liked to have seen some of the more deserving female hits over the past few years hit #1 on BB, including "Burning House," "I Got the Boy," and several Miranda Lambert and Carrie Underwood hits i.e., but not at the expense of "Dibs" not making it there, of course (it may not feel like a big hit but we've seen plenty of tunes by males that left even less of an impact hit the top routinely so...). I also echo the sentiment that she doesn't quite feel as big as someone with 2 #1 hits probably should, but I think she's really headed in the right direction and I predict that she'll blow up big sooner rather than later as rsmatto predicted.
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bigfan101
6x Platinum Member
I am Sara Evans other fan.
Joined: July 2010
Posts: 6,652
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Post by bigfan101 on Feb 22, 2016 22:03:43 GMT -5
And it is kinda hilarious that little Black River has gotten a brand new female artist to back-to-back Billboard no.1's while these bigger labels can't get these arguably "bigger hits" to the top spot.
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Post by 43dudleyvillas on Feb 22, 2016 22:21:45 GMT -5
And it is kinda hilarious that little Black River has gotten a brand new female artist to back-to-back Billboard no.1's while these bigger labels can't get these arguably "bigger hits" to the top spot. But also understandable, right? Black River is funded by a billionaire and the money almost exclusively supports one artist (who happens to be the girlfriend of the owner's nephew, who got his first publishing deal at the publishing division of a company that his father runs and his uncle funds), and the fact that Black River is new means that it is willing to frontload its spend not only to launch a career but to establish the label (in the hopes that Kelsea will one day become to Black River what Jason Aldean became to Broken Bow). The resources of bigger, more established labels are divided among multiple artists, and those labels can't justify comparably focused spends for the sake of any individual breakthrough. Considering both her album & track sales, Cam with her Mediabase-only #1 is probably generating a higher return on investment for Sony than Kelsea is for Black River (but again, Black River has additional goals that justify its Kelsea spend). Obviously, all parties, especially Kelsea herself, had to work their tails off to get the job done. I think it's fair to call both Kelsea and Black River Entertainment upstarts, but given the disproportionate marketing/metrics ratio on Kelsea at the moment, I don't consider them underdogs.
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Post by musicofmyheart on Feb 22, 2016 22:27:59 GMT -5
Words can't describe how happy I am that this made it to #1 on both charts, thus making her the first female to start her career with back-to-back #1s in 15 years. Granted, I do agree with others in this thread that I would certainly liked to have seen some of the more deserving female hits over the past few years hit #1 on BB, including "Burning House," "I Got the Boy," and several Miranda Lambert and Carrie Underwood hits i.e., but not at the expense of "Dibs" not making it there, of course (it may not feel like a big hit but we've seen plenty of tunes by males that left even less of an impact hit the top routinely so...). I also echo the sentiment that she doesn't quite feel as big as someone with 2 #1 hits probably should, but I think she's really headed in the right direction and I predict that she'll blow up big sooner rather than later as rsmatto predicted. I agree with every word you just said! While I am probably not in Kelsea's target demographic, her music still resonates with me. I find her lyrics to be thoughtful and fun and sincere. Oh, to be 22 again or even thirty again! Excited for what her future holds & really rooting for her too!
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