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Post by Deleted on Feb 22, 2016 22:37:49 GMT -5
And it is kinda hilarious that little Black River has gotten a brand new female artist to back-to-back Billboard no.1's while these bigger labels can't get these arguably "bigger hits" to the top spot. I find it more sad than difficult myself (Burning House was so close :'( ). I'm happy for Kelsea Ballerini and her team, I just think her getting two back to back #1s more her label and the amount of hype people I think have hinted at. Kelsea Ballerini sales as a whole (freshman album) are better than Frankie Ballard, Michael Ray, Canaan Smith, and I think that's it (I'm saying artists with at least one number #1 to their name. What helps Kelsea Ballerini is her radio friendly music in terms of sound (pop-country with more emphasis on the pop than the country) and lyrics as both "Dibs" and "Love Me Like You Mean It" were both lyrically just lightweight love/pickup songs (when I say pickup I don't mean truck). I also know know the argument well there's been other songs with less impact that hit #1, and yes that is true but there's not a lot of examples of #1 songs (both MB and BB therefore disqualifying "Let Me See Ya Girl") that had less of an impact than "Dibs" (off the top of my head "Young & Crazy," "Hell Of A Night," "Kiss You In The Morning," "Til It's Gone" maybe "Gonna" and I think that's it.) My ultimate point is that "Dibs" basically in my opinion wasn't an impactful song and more or less hit the top due to radios infatuation with Kelsea Ballerini and the whole success story of having a lady for the first time have two back to back #1s regardless of research and sales. She really needs to get her sales up though if she wants to be a bigger star (aka a mainstay who can graduate to A-lister like what we are seeing with Thomas Rhett, Sam Hunt, Brett Eldredge, and Cole Swindell instead of being one of the many forgetful B and C listers who with one bad song choice leads to a major lost in momentum examples being Jake Owen, Kip Moore, Thompson Square), I'm not saying she won't be a bigger star but I can see it going either way realistically. I think the leadoff single to her sophomore album could be the deciding factor as it could sell really well and do very great like what we are seeing with Cole Swindell or basically flame out (can't think of an example right now). Finally, let's just get "Peter Pan" on the freaking radio already.
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bigfan101
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Post by bigfan101 on Feb 22, 2016 23:06:18 GMT -5
And it is kinda hilarious that little Black River has gotten a brand new female artist to back-to-back Billboard no.1's while these bigger labels can't get these arguably "bigger hits" to the top spot. But also understandable, right? Black River is funded by a billionaire and the money almost exclusively supports one artist (who happens to be the girlfriend of the owner's nephew, who got his first publishing deal at the publishing division of a company that his father runs and his uncle funds), and the fact that Black River is new means that it is willing to frontload its spend not only to launch a career but to establish the label (in the hopes that Kelsea will one day become to Black River what Jason Aldean became to Broken Bow). The resources of bigger, more established labels are divided among multiple artists, and those labels can't justify comparably focused spends for the sake of any individual breakthrough. Considering both her album & track sales, Cam with her Mediabase-only #1 is probably generating a higher return on investment for Sony than Kelsea is for Black River (but again, Black River has additional goals that justify its Kelsea spend). Obviously, all parties, especially Kelsea herself, had to work their tails off to get the job done. I think it's fair to call both Kelsea and Black River Entertainment upstarts, but given the disproportionate marketing/metrics ratio on Kelsea at the moment, I don't consider them underdogs. I'm not sure this is completely fair. I would like to think that Kelsea got to some of the success based on her own merit not just because of who she has decided to date. Also, they maybe pouring money into kelsea right now, but let's not forget all the other artists they have poured money into (Sarah Darling comes to mind) and she just didn't land. And Sony could've easily gotten the Bilboard no.1 for Cam, but I guess they just didn't put forth the effort that Black River did. You can't tell me that Sony is not capable of the same style gains that Dibs has seen in the past couple days just because they have a split focus. They have DECADES of experience getting songs to number one and forever reason when it comes to their female artists they have continuously failed in getting there.
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Gray.
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Post by Gray. on Feb 22, 2016 23:43:42 GMT -5
Yas this getting to #1. All the clapping emojis for her; this song is so cute (as is her album).
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Post by Deleted on Feb 23, 2016 0:13:26 GMT -5
But also understandable, right? Black River is funded by a billionaire and the money almost exclusively supports one artist (who happens to be the girlfriend of the owner's nephew, who got his first publishing deal at the publishing division of a company that his father runs and his uncle funds), and the fact that Black River is new means that it is willing to frontload its spend not only to launch a career but to establish the label (in the hopes that Kelsea will one day become to Black River what Jason Aldean became to Broken Bow). The resources of bigger, more established labels are divided among multiple artists, and those labels can't justify comparably focused spends for the sake of any individual breakthrough. Considering both her album & track sales, Cam with her Mediabase-only #1 is probably generating a higher return on investment for Sony than Kelsea is for Black River (but again, Black River has additional goals that justify its Kelsea spend). Obviously, all parties, especially Kelsea herself, had to work their tails off to get the job done. I think it's fair to call both Kelsea and Black River Entertainment upstarts, but given the disproportionate marketing/metrics ratio on Kelsea at the moment, I don't consider them underdogs. I'm not sure this is completely fair. I would like to think that Kelsea got to some of the success based on her own merit not just because of who she has decided to date. The dating thing was hardly 43dudleyvillas' point, though. She was simply pointing out that Black River has been able to commit pretty much their entire strength to Kelsea, whereas labels like Sony, Universal, Big Machine, etc. have to spread their resources out over dozens of artists. Obviously Kelsea had to impress radio and work hard herself (which Dudley has mentioned a few times), but when you consider the fact that Kelsea is dating Josh Kerr, I hope you can see why Black River would be a bit more "all-in" on Kelsea as opposed to another new artist on their roster. That's not a knock on Kelsea or anything, and it's certainly one of the smaller factors in her breakthrough (with the bigger factors being a wealthy label and Kelsea's marketability), but I do think that it's worth noting. And Sony could've easily gotten the Bilboard no.1 for Cam, but I guess they just didn't put forth the effort that Black River did. You can't tell me that Sony is not capable of the same style gains that Dibs has seen in the past couple days just because they have a split focus. They have DECADES of experience getting songs to number one and forever reason when it comes to their female artists they have continuously failed in getting there. I strongly disagree with this. Sony tried very hard to get "Burning House" to #1 and it fell just short, but only because it was up against one of the biggest radio hits ("Die A Happy Man") in many, many years. "Burning House" fell short of the Billboard #1 by only 264k, which is essentially a photo-finish in the radio world. Do you really think "Dibs" would have managed to get to #1 if it had peaked in December, in place of "Burning House", and against the competition of "Die A Happy Man" and "Gonna Know We Were Here"? There were several more stronger hits at the top of the chart when "Burning House" peaked, which has a HUGE impact on the rotations of each song and the amount of spins that radio is willing to give to each song (there's not a clear favorite when there are 2-3 really big hits fighting for maximum spins). This week, on the other hand, there was virtually no competition for the top spot. Wheelhouse Records completely ceded the #1 spot to Black River, and Kelsea got an easy #1 as a result. I'm certainly not trying to take anything away from Kelsea. But I don't get why it's a shock that Black River is having success with her. Initially, yes, it was a surprise when "Love Me Like You Mean It" made top 20 and then continued to the top. But it shouldn't be a surprise anymore. Kelsea is the label's flagship artist...it's really no different than when Broken Bow and Jason Aldean broke through simultaneously, or when Big Machine and Taylor Swift broke through simultaneously. I'm not necessarily saying or predicting that Kelsea will become as successful as Jason and Taylor...I'm merely pointing out the similarities among them, that they were each the launch artist for a promising independent label.
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bboat11
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Post by bboat11 on Feb 23, 2016 0:57:31 GMT -5
And it is kinda hilarious that little Black River has gotten a brand new female artist to back-to-back Billboard no.1's while these bigger labels can't get these arguably "bigger hits" to the top spot. My ultimate point is that "Dibs" basically in my opinion wasn't an impactful song and more or less hit the top due to radios infatuation with Kelsea Ballerini and the whole success story of having a lady for the first time have two back to back #1s regardless of research and sales. She really needs to get her sales up though if she wants to be a bigger star (aka a mainstay who can graduate to A-lister like what we are seeing with Thomas Rhett, Sam Hunt, Brett Eldredge, and Cole Swindell instead of being one of the many forgetful B and C listers who with one bad song choice leads to a major lost in momentum examples being Jake Owen, Kip Moore, Thompson Square), I'm not saying she won't be a bigger star but I can see it going either way realistically. I think the leadoff single to her sophomore album could be the deciding factor as it could sell really well and do very great like what we are seeing with Cole Swindell or basically flame out (can't think of an example right now). Finally, let's just get "Peter Pan" on the freaking radio already. Kip Moore is the first one to come to mind for me when you mention artists who met a lot of success with their debut era and yet started to flame out with their sophomore effort. As far as "Dibs" is concerned, I am very happy for Kelsea! I enjoy this song a lot more than "Love Me Like You Mean It", which I found to be annoying and made worse by overexposure. And "Peter Pan" is the best of the 3! So, she is getting better and better with every song for me so far. That's always nice to see!
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josh
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Post by josh on Feb 24, 2016 1:07:11 GMT -5
And it is kinda hilarious that little Black River has gotten a brand new female artist to back-to-back Billboard no.1's while these bigger labels can't get these arguably "bigger hits" to the top spot. Alright, Black River, it's time to turn your radio mojo on to Pickler's next project!
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onebuffalo
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Post by onebuffalo on Feb 25, 2016 11:13:42 GMT -5
A four week improvement in getting Dibs to top the chart. Dibs did so in 34 weeks whereas Love Me Like You Mean It took 38 weeks. Peter Pan should take 30 weeks, hitting the top (hopefully) in September.
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Post by Deleted on Feb 28, 2016 12:38:24 GMT -5
Man! jhomes87 was right, radio was really ready to drop this song as the last 6 days "Dibs" has lost about 13.1 million in audience :O . "Dibs" has a legitimate shot of going recurrent as my audience totals have Kelsea right about where Chase Bryant and Florida Georgia Line are on the chart. So yeah radio was really ready to let this go between the average to poor callout scores, and the mediocre sales. Here's the biggest twist Westwood One has contributed to absolutely none of this, so a good chunk of "Dibs" lost audience is going to reflect on tomorrow's Billboard Chart.
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onebuffalo
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Post by onebuffalo on Feb 28, 2016 14:39:11 GMT -5
Man! jhomes87 was right, radio was really ready to drop this song as the last 6 days "Dibs" has lost about 13.1 million in audience :O . "Dibs" has a legitimate shot of going recurrent as my audience totals have Kelsea right about where Chase Bryant and Florida Georgia Line are on the chart. So yeah radio was really ready to let this go between the average to poor callout scores, and the mediocre sales. Here's the biggest twist Westwood One has contributed to absolutely none of this, so a good chunk of "Dibs" lost audience is going to reflect on tomorrow's Billboard Chart. Will we see that in your predictions today?
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Post by Deleted on Feb 28, 2016 14:59:10 GMT -5
Man! jhomes87 was right, radio was really ready to drop this song as the last 6 days "Dibs" has lost about 13.1 million in audience :O . "Dibs" has a legitimate shot of going recurrent as my audience totals have Kelsea right about where Chase Bryant and Florida Georgia Line are on the chart. So yeah radio was really ready to let this go between the average to poor callout scores, and the mediocre sales. Here's the biggest twist Westwood One has contributed to absolutely none of this, so a good chunk of "Dibs" lost audience is going to reflect on tomorrow's Billboard Chart. Will we see that in your predictions today? Still working on it ;)
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someguy
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Post by someguy on Feb 28, 2016 20:05:43 GMT -5
I'd love to see a song go recurrent from #1, just to show how ridiculous these manufactured #1s are. Not that labels will really care, since they still get their #1, but I think it would be kind of funny. I think this has a pretty legitimate shot to do so tomorrow. A strong update from FGL will be the key, though.
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Post by Deleted on Feb 28, 2016 20:24:09 GMT -5
I'd love to see a song go recurrent from #1, just to show how ridiculous these manufactured #1s are. Not that labels will really care, since they still get their #1, but I think it would be kind of funny. I think this has a pretty legitimate shot to do so tomorrow. A strong update from FGL will be the key, though. I do think Kelsea will go recurrent on Billboard tomorrow, all the way from #1. How embarrassing. Kelsea seems likely to fall below Chase Bryant in both audience and spins. "Dibs" is projecting to lose around a whopping 2500 spins, which would put her close to 5600...and that'll be less than Chase Bryant's spin total. Thomas Rhett will go recurrent (and his top 10 spot will go to FGL), but Luke and Granger should get one more week in the top 10. Chase would be the one to knock Kelsea out, though.
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Post by Deleted on Feb 28, 2016 20:29:59 GMT -5
I'd love to see a song go recurrent from #1, just to show how ridiculous these manufactured #1s are. Not that labels will really care, since they still get their #1, but I think it would be kind of funny. I think this has a pretty legitimate shot to do so tomorrow. A strong update from FGL will be the key, though. I do think Kelsea will go recurrent on Billboard tomorrow, all the way from #1. How embarrassing. Kelsea seems likely to fall below Chase Bryant in both audience and spins. "Dibs" is projecting to lose around a whopping 2500 spins, which would put her close to 5600...and that'll be less than Chase Bryant's spin total. Thomas Rhett will go recurrent (and his top 10 spot will go to FGL), but Luke and Granger should get one more week in the top 10. Chase would be the one to knock Kelsea out, though. Well I'm going to change my predictions. Also I think the word I'm looking for is pathetic, more than embarrassing. "Dibs" is the official new low for songs that didn't deserve a #1. This freefall is proof. Just ouch!!
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sabre14
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Post by sabre14 on Feb 28, 2016 20:35:22 GMT -5
That would mean one embarrassing happenstance happening because of another -- "Little Bit Of You" becoming a top 10 single.
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someguy
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Post by someguy on Feb 28, 2016 21:06:21 GMT -5
I'd love to see a song go recurrent from #1, just to show how ridiculous these manufactured #1s are. Not that labels will really care, since they still get their #1, but I think it would be kind of funny. I think this has a pretty legitimate shot to do so tomorrow. A strong update from FGL will be the key, though. I do think Kelsea will go recurrent on Billboard tomorrow, all the way from #1. How embarrassing. Kelsea seems likely to fall below Chase Bryant in both audience and spins. "Dibs" is projecting to lose around a whopping 2500 spins, which would put her close to 5600...and that'll be less than Chase Bryant's spin total. Thomas Rhett will go recurrent (and his top 10 spot will go to FGL), but Luke and Granger should get one more week in the top 10. Chase would be the one to knock Kelsea out, though. Oh right, I forgot that Thomas Rhett is still on Billboard ( I was looking at Mediabase when I typed that).
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sabre14
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Post by sabre14 on Feb 29, 2016 21:32:24 GMT -5
someguy almost had his dream come true. "Dibs" stays on Billboard Airplay at #10 this week. Kelsea lost 13.5 million in audience but still finished ahead of Chase Bryant by 900k in audience.
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Post by Deleted on Feb 29, 2016 21:47:41 GMT -5
someguy almost had his dream come true. It was my dream too :'( Dang it, I really wanted to see this go from #1 to recurrent-land, but alas, it didn't quite happen. Of course, Kelsea would have been #9 if Billboard had sent Thomas Rhett recurrent, but I'm thinking that Billboard might have tweaked their recurrent rule (see the Thomas Rhett thread for an explanation of my theory).
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Post by musicofmyheart on Mar 1, 2016 0:38:19 GMT -5
First, let me say that this post is not an indictment on any of the above comments regarding Dibs' status on Billboard today. I am simply perplexed and dismayed by all the mean spirited, and sarcastic comments of which Kelsea is indirectly on the receiving end of when all she is doing is pursuing her dream. She is not the one one with the deep pockets, or the one making backroom deals with radio stations. As far as I can see, the only thing she has done is write music that she believes in. Whether her music appeals to you or not, why begrudge her her success or "dream" of a collapse of epic proportions simply because she found a label that believes in her and is willing to back her music. What artist wouldn't be thrilled to find themselves in a similar situation.
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Post by Deleted on Mar 1, 2016 1:02:25 GMT -5
Whether her music appeals to you or not, why begrudge her her success or "dream" of a collapse of epic proportions simply because she found a label that believes in her and is willing to back her music. What artist wouldn't be thrilled to find themselves in a similar situation. I can't speak for anybody else, but I certainly don't begrudge Kelsea her success. I simply don't like when country radio hands out #1 hits. The whole "everybody gets a trophy" thing is just really annoying to me. Black River has done a great job in building Kelsea's name and I don't blame them for that -- it's their job, after all -- but when a song gets such a big push to #1 (like we saw with "Dibs" and also Keith Urban's "Break On Me"), I think it renders a #1 hit rather meaningless. And so when a song that received such a big push collapses the following week, I admit that I enjoy it a little bit, because I think it shows just how phony the ascent to #1 was. I don't think that's mean-spirited at all. I'm a country music fan first and foremost, and one of my hobbies is chart-watching. So when the charts essentially become pre-determined, I'm going to call out country radio and the record labels involved. It has nothing to do with the artist or the song. I'm not really a fan of "Dibs", whereas I do enjoy "Break On Me", but I'm equally annoyed at how both of them ascended to #1.
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Post by musicofmyheart on Mar 1, 2016 12:02:24 GMT -5
I love Break On Me a lot more than Dibs but that's probably a discussion for another thread. Worth noting that I enjoy reading your posts and appreciate the information/insights you share and am honestly a fan whether I agree with you or not!! Anyway, at the end of the day, an artist having to hear people debate the legitimacy of their #1 song, is not the worst problem to have!
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Post by josephmorgan on Mar 1, 2016 16:17:03 GMT -5
This song almost became the first song to fall from #1 to outside the top ten in nearly 20 years. Shania's "You Win My Love" dropped from #1 to #11 in May of 1996.
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Post by Deleted on Mar 8, 2016 18:36:31 GMT -5
This song has had perhaps the most impressive drop I've ever seen. While it didn't quite go from #1 to recurrent last week, it did go from 45.389 million on the Billboard chart from February 22 to 19.155 million on last night's Billboard chart, where Kelsea ranked #5 in the Recurrents section. That's a loss of more than 26 million in 2 weeks. :O
"Dibs" is already below both "I Love This Life" and "Stay A Little Longer" in total Billboard audience. Next week she'll likely drop below the airplay levels of both "I'm Comin' Over" and "Save It For A Rainy Day"..
Radio was more than ready to let go of this. The fact that radio likes her and wants to support her as the "new popular female artist" is probably the main reason why they pushed this up to #1, because it never researched or sold all that well.
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Future Captain
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Post by Future Captain on Mar 9, 2016 10:13:15 GMT -5
This song has had perhaps the most impressive drop I've ever seen. While it didn't quite go from #1 to recurrent last week, it did go from 45.389 million on the Billboard chart from February 22 to 19.155 million on last night's Billboard chart, where Kelsea ranked #5 in the Recurrents section. That's a loss of more than 26 million in 2 weeks. :O "Dibs" is already below both "I Love This Life" and "Stay A Little Longer" in total Billboard audience. Next week she'll likely drop below the airplay levels of both "I'm Comin' Over" and "Save It For A Rainy Day". Wow, that's a lot of loss, what's the record for spin and audience loss in one week? I'm pretty sure it's Begin Again but I can be wrong.
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sabre14
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Post by sabre14 on Mar 9, 2016 11:57:40 GMT -5
This song has had perhaps the most impressive drop I've ever seen. While it didn't quite go from #1 to recurrent last week, it did go from 45.389 million on the Billboard chart from February 22 to 19.155 million on last night's Billboard chart, where Kelsea ranked #5 in the Recurrents section. That's a loss of more than 26 million in 2 weeks. :O "Dibs" is already below both "I Love This Life" and "Stay A Little Longer" in total Billboard audience. Next week she'll likely drop below the airplay levels of both "I'm Comin' Over" and "Save It For A Rainy Day". Wow, that's a lot of loss, what's the record for spin and audience loss in one week? I'm pretty sure it's Begin Again but I can be wrong. "Begin Again" lost 11.4 million in audience the week it fell from #3 to recurrent in 2013. "Dibs" lost 13.5 million, but remember, the audience totals on Billboard for a top 5 song in 2016 is roughly 10.0 million higher than it was three years ago, so both Taylor and Kelsea's song had about the same loss rate. I don't know off-hand what the record is, if its not Kelsea's song.
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Post by Deleted on Mar 10, 2016 7:16:02 GMT -5
First, let me say that this post is not an indictment on any of the above comments regarding Dibs' status on Billboard today. I am simply perplexed and dismayed by all the mean spirited, and sarcastic comments of which Kelsea is indirectly on the receiving end of when all she is doing is pursuing her dream. She is not the one one with the deep pockets, or the one making backroom deals with radio stations. As far as I can see, the only thing she has done is write music that she believes in. Whether her music appeals to you or not, why begrudge her her success or "dream" of a collapse of epic proportions simply because she found a label that believes in her and is willing to back her music. What artist wouldn't be thrilled to find themselves in a similar situation. Huh? I'll agree that sometimes people here can sway to the "mean" side of things instead of just letting things be. But when an artist puts their music out to the public, they are opening it to public scrutiny. Good and bad. You can't take one without expecting the other. Not that I think Kelsea is by any means. She has a very good way of carrying herself from what I've seen of her social media. But come on--just because she is "following her dream" doesn't mean that she shouldn't have to be the subject of negativity. I started playing guitar when I was 12 and we started a band with my friends. We wrote a handful of songs and played a handful of gigs and it was a lot of fun. People liked us. They liked our songs. I sure would have liked to continue with it. But just because I was following a dream didn't mean I was entitled to success or praise. I think Black River has obviously done a great job promoting Kelsea. It helps that she's buddies with T Swift. It also helps that her music is essentially structured the same way a bro-country song would be structured because it's very safe. "Love Me Like You Mean It" got away with being meaningful because I guess the lyrics had meaning. But "Dibs" is far from a number 1 song, evidenced by it's landslide down the charts after Black River got what they were looking for. It had a good beat and a nice sing-a-long melody which seems to be what all the kids are looking for these days. I'm not undervaluing Kelsea's success but all I'm saying is these artists know very well that when they put their music out to public opinion, they are going to have to take the bad with the good. (Unless of course you're The Band Perry or Chase Rice, then you can throw social media hissy fits)
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