DJ General
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Post by DJ General on Mar 31, 2016 10:45:50 GMT -5
Is there a second single? Not yet. When she does, it's almost guaranteed to be "80's Mercedes." That's what I heard. My friend said she kept hearing it on the highway.
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dm2081
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Post by dm2081 on Mar 31, 2016 11:08:26 GMT -5
So it seems like radio has completed stunted this song and "Nobody To Blame". Their gains the past few weeks have been minimal, and Dustin Lynch was able to make the pass. I don't have the callout scores in fron of me, but I do know the sales for both are beyond great. It's been pretty frustrating to watch these 2 gems struggle lately, especially when they're two of the best songs charting in my opinion.
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sabre14
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Post by sabre14 on Mar 31, 2016 12:57:49 GMT -5
So it seems like radio has completed stunted this song and "Nobody To Blame". Their gains the past few weeks have been minimal, and Dustin Lynch was able to make the pass. I don't have the callout scores in front of meThat's exactly why. Both songs are testing less than ideal and Country radio is more eager to covert songs with better testing like "Mind Reader", "Think Of You" and "Somewhere On A Beach".
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Post by Elusive Chanteuse on Mar 31, 2016 14:26:57 GMT -5
This has to be my favorite track in the whole Top 50 tracks on Country radio atm. She's gonna be a BIG star.
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Deleted
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Post by Deleted on Mar 31, 2016 18:14:07 GMT -5
So it seems like radio has completed stunted this song and "Nobody To Blame". Their gains the past few weeks have been minimal, and Dustin Lynch was able to make the pass. I don't have the callout scores in front of meThat's exactly why. Both songs are testing less than ideal and Country radio is more eager to covert songs with better testing like "Mind Reader", "Think Of You" and "Somewhere On A Beach". Maren's song is struggling a bit in callout, but Stapleton's certainly isn't. Even in Mediabase Callout, Stapleton is #14 overall, which isn't mind-blowingly good, but it's definitely not bad either. And "Nobody To Blame" is researching exceptionally well on the Bullseye charts. Bullseye Callout has NTB at #6 overall, Callout America has Chris at #2 overall, and RadioFeedback has him at #6 overall. "My Church" is #26 overall (out of 28) on the Mediabase Callout chart. Maren is #32 overall (out of 40) on Bullseye Callout, #28 overall (out of 35) on Callout America, and #5 overall (out of 40) on RadioFeedback. It seems that the RadioFeedback survey is currently leaning a bit more conservative than the other ones (Bullseye Callout, Callout America, and Mediabase Callout), so that might explain why Maren is doing better on that one. I personally feel that "My Church" is equal parts progressive/contemporary and traditional in sound, and it's probably that combination plus the fact that she's a female artist (*rolls eyes*) that explains why the research on "My Church" is less than stellar, especially given that country radio still seems to be catering mostly to men in their teens, 20's and 30's, most of whom don't rank female songs very high when it comes to callout/listener feedback. I'm absolutely baffled as to why Stapleton's song is slowing up, though. Sure, it's really traditional-sounding in a time when country radio has been especially lacking in traditional country songs, but "Nobody To Blame" is selling well (especially when you factor in album sales) and it's testing very well, too. Maren might have a tougher road ahead, but I still think she can find her way to a top 5 peak, if not a #1 peak. Her album comes out in just over 2 months, so I think "My Church" will probably keep climbing throughout most of the spring. All in all, though, it's rather alarming how men are scoring female artists' songs through Bullseye's research. Just looking at the male 18-44 demo on Callout America, the highest-ranked female song is Jennifer Nettles' "Unlove You" at #27 (out of 35). The top 26 songs are all sung by males, or male duos/groups. After Nettles we have Maren at #28, Cam at #29, Chris Young/Cassadee Pope at #32, Tara Thompson at #33, Kelsea's "Peter Pan" at #34, and Maddie & Tae at #35. When switching to the female demographic (18-44) on Callout America, suddenly Cam is #2 overall, Kelsea is #3, and Chris and Cassadee are at #5. Maren and the other females are down in the 19-28 range, but "My Church" and other female artists' songs are testing at least a little bit better with women than with men.
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sabre14
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Post by sabre14 on Mar 31, 2016 18:37:40 GMT -5
That's exactly why. Both songs are testing less than ideal and Country radio is more eager to covert songs with better testing like "Mind Reader", "Think Of You" and "Somewhere On A Beach". Maren's song is struggling a bit in callout, but Stapleton's certainly isn't. Even in Mediabase Callout, Stapleton is #14 overall, which isn't mind-blowingly good, but it's definitely not bad either. And "Nobody To Blame" is researching exceptionally well on the Bullseye charts. Bullseye Callout has NTB at #6 overall, Callout America has Chris at #2 overall, and RadioFeedback has him at #6 overall. The overall dislike for "Nobody To Blame" is 19% on MB call-out, which is fourth highest and Chris' song has third highest burn rate (only "Shut Up And Fish" and "It All Started With A Beer" have higher burn rate's). His song also has the highest dislike and burn rate with the young male demographic. The overall positive is fine but I think radio is looking for any excuse to convert other songs over Stapleton's and both "Somewhere On A Beach" and "Mind Reader" (which recently leaped Chris and Maren) have the lowest dislike and burn rate's of the entire surveyed songs. I sould rephrase my statement saying that I think that to be the reason these two songs are slowing down (in Chris' case stalling) since I can't logically think of anything else. The fact he's in the top 10 positive on the other call-out services adds doubt but I'm sure radio looks at more than just the overall positive number, that ranks the songs.
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Deleted
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Post by Deleted on Mar 31, 2016 18:57:51 GMT -5
Maren's song is struggling a bit in callout, but Stapleton's certainly isn't. Even in Mediabase Callout, Stapleton is #14 overall, which isn't mind-blowingly good, but it's definitely not bad either. And "Nobody To Blame" is researching exceptionally well on the Bullseye charts. Bullseye Callout has NTB at #6 overall, Callout America has Chris at #2 overall, and RadioFeedback has him at #6 overall. The overall dislike for "Nobody To Blame" is 19% on MB call-out, which is fourth highest and Chris' song has third highest burn rate (only "Shut Up And Fish" and "It All Started With A Beer" have higher burn rate's). His song also has the highest dislike and burn rate with the young male demographic. The overall positive is fine but I think radio is looking for any excuse to convert other songs over Stapleton's and both "Somewhere On A Beach" and "Mind Reader" (which recently leaped Chris and Maren) have the lowest dislike and burn rate's of the entire surveyed songs. I sould rephrase my statement saying that I think that to be the reason these two songs are slowing down (in Chris' case stalling) since I can't logically think of anything else. The fact he's in the top 10 positive on the other call-out services adds doubt but I'm sure radio looks at more than just the overall positive number, that ranks the songs. These are valid points, but the problem with Mediabase Callout is that their sample survey varies from week to week, which means that the callout is less consistent on a week-to-week basis. The Bullseye charts operate with a fixed sample which is more likely to yield results that are more accurate and more consistent on a week-to-week basis. They all have their flaws, though -- I'm working on a separate post about that. I definitely agree that radio probably pays a bit more attention to the negative and fatigue scores (the last thing they want is listener tune-out), but Chris has one of the lowest dislike and lowest fatigue scores on Bullseye, Callout America, and RadioFeedback. Maren is struggling in those areas, but on the whole, Chris seems to be doing particularly well. Unfortunately I no longer view "Nobody To Blame" as a lock for #1. And even though Maren's song isn't testing very well, I think she's got a better chance of going top 5 or #1 than Chris does. Given the callout, I can understand why "My Church" has had some trouble getting those top 10 conversions but it's still very frustrating. With Chris it's even worse...it seems that radio is resisting "Nobody To Blame" for no reason at all.
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kw9461
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Post by kw9461 on Mar 31, 2016 20:55:08 GMT -5
I know this is a highly subjective argument, but I'm going to make it anyway. If My Church, Nobody To Blame,& Shut Up And Fish are the songs with high negatives and burn rate, then they're polling the wrong audience. Country radio is being held hostage by people who don't seem to actually like country music. And even taking my own personal feelings out of the mix, that seems like a problem in the long run...
As far as Maren goes, as long as this can crack the top 10 and maybe t5, she'll be fine. 80's Mercedes is going to be her star vehicle anyways.
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bksouthga
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Post by bksouthga on Apr 1, 2016 11:30:50 GMT -5
So it seems like radio has completed stunted this song and "Nobody To Blame". Their gains the past few weeks have been minimal, and Dustin Lynch was able to make the pass. I don't have the callout scores in front of meThat's exactly why. Both songs are testing less than ideal and Country radio is more eager to covert songs with better testing like "Mind Reader", "Think Of You" and "Somewhere On A Beach". They obviously didn't ask me because I freaking hate "Somewhere on a Beach".
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tryexp
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Post by tryexp on Apr 1, 2016 12:01:38 GMT -5
I just hope this can make it to top 5 otherwise I can see the album being pushed back, which I hate. This is a good song so I wonder where it getting the dislike call outs from? Is radio making up these numbers? For an outsider it looks strange.
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sabre14
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Post by sabre14 on Apr 1, 2016 12:12:06 GMT -5
I just hope this can make it to top 5 otherwise I can see the album being pushed back, which I hate. This is a good song so I wonder where it getting the dislike call outs from? Is radio making up these numbers? For an outsider it looks strange. I agree with you that this is a good song but other people might not agree with you -- there's always somebody who doesn't care for a song. And no, radio is not making up the numbers. Services like MB Call-Out and Bullseye survey people in certain age and gender demographics and ask for feedback on songs. Do you really like it? Do you kind of like it? So-so? Don't like it? Hate it? Are you sick of hearing it? To me, judging by the numbers, diehard Country music fans don't seem to be polled in these call-outs -- rather radio listeners who don't exclusively listen to Country radio -- scan listeners, who like a wide variety of music ( 43dudleyvillas has made this point in the past). It's also hard for female voices and even some traditional minded tunes to score well because Country radio listeners have just not been exposed to them as much as male voices and pop-leaning songs. Radio might argue (and have) that listeners just don't like female singers vs.male singers and they deflect blame to the consumer of their stations -- rather than themselves. It's a lengthy discussion we had during the "salad-gate" stir-up caused by radio consultant Keith Hill in Country Aircheck last summer. No though, these numbers are not made up. They certainly may not be coming from reliable sources to correctly gauge people as a whole, but radio still puts value into this research.
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bksouthga
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Post by bksouthga on Apr 1, 2016 12:12:50 GMT -5
I just hope this can make it to top 5 otherwise I can see the album being pushed back, which I hate. This is a good song so I wonder where it getting the dislike call outs from? Is radio making up these numbers? For an outsider it looks strange. I'm sure there are people who dislike it for religious reasons, although personally I feel that view of the song is a bit narrow.
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Mr. Thonk Eyes
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Post by Mr. Thonk Eyes on Apr 1, 2016 13:31:55 GMT -5
I know this is a highly subjective argument, but I'm going to make it anyway. If My Church, Nobody To Blame,& Shut Up And Fish are the songs with high negatives and burn rate, then they're polling the wrong audience. Country radio is being held hostage by people who don't seem to actually like country music. And even taking my own personal feelings out of the mix, that seems like a problem in the long run... As far as Maren goes, as long as this can crack the top 10 and maybe t5, she'll be fine. 80's Mercedes is going to be her star vehicle anyways. I feel like an anomally, because I'm a 16 year old male who doesn't exclusively listen to country and likes a bunch of genres, yet I love the three songs you just mentioned with high negative and burn rates.
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liza
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Post by liza on Apr 2, 2016 12:18:38 GMT -5
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Post by travelrocks24 on Apr 4, 2016 4:06:10 GMT -5
"80's Mercedes" is #29 on this week's top 30 countdown, that didn't take long to make that list.
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Post by musicofmyheart on Apr 4, 2016 4:16:48 GMT -5
I'm having a hard time accepting the fact that this song is actually struggling to stay in the top 10...unbelievable.
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bamafan2102
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Post by bamafan2102 on Apr 4, 2016 5:08:20 GMT -5
I am loving the EP. My Church is great but not even close to the best song on it. 80's Mercedes is catchy but I see it having a hard time if it gets released although it is no more "poppy" than Carrie's last few singles.
Her voice is very different and the BGV's stick out to me. Kind of like the woman that does Rodney Atkins' BGV's but 100000 times better.
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sabre14
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Post by sabre14 on Apr 7, 2016 12:45:15 GMT -5
"My Church" is stalling almost as bad as "Nobody To Blame." Maren's song has lost 50 spins and 200k in audience since Sunday (30 spins and 340k in audience lost today) and its lost over 70 spins and 200k in total Mediabase audience over the past two weeks.
The sales are great (#24 on the all-genre chart) but the suspect research (especially the MB call-out, where its #22 overall and has a dislike of over 20%, with a 92% familiarity...that's the highest dislike on that particular call-out service) is spelling trouble.
I won't get into another long-winded discussion of how I feel about radio's heavy importance on research but this song has hit a wall and that's the single biggest reason why. Columbia out up a "Convert Now" ad in Aircheck this past week and its actually gotten worse since then. I definitely think we need to give this one a few more days since its younger than Stapleton's song and the ACM/influx of new singles could be aiding its struggles but things haven't looked good for this one for a few weeks now.
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kanimal
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Post by kanimal on Apr 7, 2016 13:04:45 GMT -5
Ditching a hot seller based solely on "research" is suspect as it is [especially in this case, since the sales gain was a direct response to radio; it's not like she's a superstar who sells singles based on brand name/fan base].
But it'd be particularly troubling if it were based on the Mediabase research. These reports have been a disaster since coming back from the holiday break; the sample sizes on all formats have fallen by 40-70%. At country, the panel went from typically being in the ~2000 range to well below ~1000.
Not that you theoretically couldn't get good data from 800 people (though the data does look VERY suspect for some formats, notably pop), but are we not going to question WHY the sample size shrank so much? Generally, the goal of a research house -- especially when you're talking about something subjective like opinion on a song -- should be to consistently increase the size of the survey pool.
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sabre14
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Post by sabre14 on Apr 7, 2016 13:09:06 GMT -5
I'm hopeful that radio will slowly warm up to conversions at some point since the influx of new singles is contributing but they (radio) just seems to be in favor of "Think Of You", "Somewhere On A Beach", "Mind Reader" and "Humble And Kind" over "My Church" at the moment and it doesn't look promising behind Maren either, as Blake, Rhett and Luke are closing in rapidly.
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tryexp
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Post by tryexp on Apr 8, 2016 12:45:05 GMT -5
Is it true that research is based on the opinions of 800 people? Cause that's a ridiculous sample size to put any kind of of relevance on the results...I think it must be difficult for radios to decide stuff, but maybe we need to find a new way to sample a true "country radio listening population". Also, I'm not sure how it works (if they play the whole song, just a section, etc) because for me some song works really well as clips, but get really annoying as full songs, and some seem kind of simple as clips and show their magic as full songs...
Anyway, I'd be happy for Maren to achieve a success level similar to Kacey, because she gets to release her music and we get a lot of concerts here in Europe :) But "My Church" deserves to be a hit!
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sabre14
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Post by sabre14 on Apr 8, 2016 13:14:18 GMT -5
Ditching a hot seller based solely on "research" is suspect as it is [especially in this case, since the sales gain was a direct response to radio; it's not like she's a superstar who sells singles based on brand name/fan base]. But it'd be particularly troubling if it were based on the Mediabase research. These reports have been a disaster since coming back from the holiday break; the sample sizes on all formats have fallen by 40-70%. At country, the panel went from typically being in the ~2000 range to well below ~1000. Not that you theoretically couldn't get good data from 800 people (though the data does look VERY suspect for some formats, notably pop), but are we not going to question WHY the sample size shrank so much? Generally, the goal of a research house -- especially when you're talking about something subjective like opinion on a song -- should be to consistently increase the size of the survey pool. My thinking is that we need more than even 2000 people for the sample size, let alone the below 1000 pool, Mediabase's pool is currently. Everyone is taught at an early age that (and this is common sense, really), the more people you get for your survey, the more accurate the survey becomes. I hope that the research surveys aren't getting lackadaisical and content with its low sample size. The reason nobody is questioning the sample size is simply because not enough people care about it. We talk about how not enough people give enough attention to the manipulative nature of the radio charts -- well, this is even worse in terms of level of scrutiny and attention being brought to the forefront. I would feel more comfortable with research Country radio gets if the number was far greater -- like 7000 people. I honestly do not believe programmers even consider sample size anymore. They have a lot on their plate to be concerned with on a daily basis (promotion, advertisers, sales, etc.), to pay close attention to survey sample size, so they probably just look at the weekly numbers and gauge what to do from their when it comes to their respective playlists. Is it true that research is based on the opinions of 800 people? Cause that's a ridiculous sample size to put any kind of of relevance on the results...I think it must be difficult for radios to decide stuff, but maybe we need to find a new way to sample a true "country radio listening population". Also, I'm not sure how it works (if they play the whole song, just a section, etc) because for me some song works really well as clips, but get really annoying as full songs, and some seem kind of simple as clips and show their magic as full songs... Anyway, I'd be happy for Maren to achieve a success level similar to Kacey, because she gets to release her music and we get a lot of concerts here in Europe :) But "My Church" deserves to be a hit! They usually ask you "are you familiar with the song", so you can say yes or no. They ask you on a certain scale how much you "like" or "dislike" a song and is you are tired of hearing it yet. You're never going to get the process perfect and people being 100% honest, but that could be said of any survey. I also think that Maren will have more radio success than Kacey. Her music is not as traditional sounding as Kacey's and she isn't as abrasive to radio's brown nosing as Kacey is. Hopefully Maren's single sales continue to do well after "My Church."
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tryexp
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Post by tryexp on Apr 8, 2016 13:28:06 GMT -5
Thanks sabre14 you're always helpful and I enjoy learning more about radio and how it works.
Maren was also doing really well on streaming before, so even without a huge radio hit sales should be ok :)
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Post by 43dudleyvillas on Apr 8, 2016 16:52:53 GMT -5
While I don't think that radio programmers ignore the national callout charts that we look at here, my understanding is that the stations that can afford it (particularly, the medium, large and major market stations) rely more on local research that reflects the views of their committed listeners. So the methodology issues (sample size, sample selection, the self-reinforcing bias of a musically conservative listenership) remain, but the results are more local and may not match what we're seeing on a national level.
Count me in among those baffled by "My Church"'s stall. Programmers seem to be among the group that simply can't wait to crown Maren Morris the next big thing, so I don't think they're holding the song back because they want to. It is, perhaps, worth noting that even "Came Here to Forget," which is in the same part of the chart as "Nobody to Blame" and "My Church," is also not having a great week, so maybe there's something impacting songs just outside of top-10 rotation at the moment? I don't know what that might be though. And of course it's also true that "My Church" has been struggling for a couple of weeks now and has lost out, so far, to "Somewhere on a Beach," "Mind Reader," "That Don't Sound Like You" and probably (though more understandably) "Humble & Kind," so there has to be something affecting its run (and "Nobody to Blame"'s) that didn't trip those songs.
I didn't see any particular airplay trend for "My Church" when I looked at its airplay leaders a few days ago (couldn't pull them up just now). And looking at airplay in the top markets, I'm not seeing a major, irreversible pattern there. I guess some top weighted stations seemed to drop "My Church" by one to four spins per week last week, but several other stations with pretty solid weights increased "My Church" spins by the same amount if not more. I'm not seeing a major geographical pattern in the spin trends, either.
So in summary, I'm stumped. But with programmers appearing to be very enthused about the rest of Maren Morris' material, I tend to think that she'll be fine on the follow-up no matter what happens with "My Church."
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Post by musicofmyheart on Apr 9, 2016 16:55:10 GMT -5
Can someone tell me how this song has fared to date compared to other OTV songs?
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Post by travelrocks24 on Apr 9, 2016 17:20:03 GMT -5
This song fell off The Highway top 30 this weekend. 80's Mercedes is on this countdown now.
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sabre14
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Post by sabre14 on Apr 9, 2016 17:46:46 GMT -5
Can someone tell me how this song has fared to date compared to other OTV songs? This is ripped from the "On The Verge" thread, by jhomes87. Artist / Song Label Selection Date Billboard Peak • CRAIG CAMPBELL / Keep Them Kisses Comin' Bigger Picture Group February 18, 2014 #9• DUSTIN LYNCH / Where It's At Broken Bow Records April 14, 2014 #1 (2 weeks)• SAM HUNT / Leave The Night On MCA Nashville June 16, 2014 #1• CHASE BRYANT / Take It On Back Red Bow Records August 11, 2014 #9• RAELYNN / God Made Girls Valory Music Company October 20, 2014 #16• A THOUSAND HORSES / Smoke Republic Nashville January 12, 2015 #1• MICHAEL RAY / Kiss You In The Morning Atlantic Records/Warner Music Nashville/WEA March 9, 2015 #1• CHRIS JANSON / Buy Me A Boat Warner Music Nashville/WAR May 4, 2015 #3• CAM / Burning House Arista Nashville July 6, 2015 #2• GRANGER SMITH / Backroad Song Wheelhouse Records October 15, 2015 #1
"Buy Me A Boat" and "Burning House" peaked at #1 on Mediabase. "Keep Them Kisses Comin'" got to #7 on Mediabase and "Take It On Back" got to #8.
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Post by musicofmyheart on Apr 9, 2016 22:51:12 GMT -5
Can someone tell me how this song has fared to date compared to other OTV songs? This is ripped from the "On The Verge" thread, by jhomes87 . Artist / Song Label Selection Date Billboard Peak • CRAIG CAMPBELL / Keep Them Kisses Comin' Bigger Picture Group February 18, 2014 #9• DUSTIN LYNCH / Where It's At Broken Bow Records April 14, 2014 #1 (2 weeks)• SAM HUNT / Leave The Night On MCA Nashville June 16, 2014 #1• CHASE BRYANT / Take It On Back Red Bow Records August 11, 2014 #9• RAELYNN / God Made Girls Valory Music Company October 20, 2014 #16• A THOUSAND HORSES / Smoke Republic Nashville January 12, 2015 #1• MICHAEL RAY / Kiss You In The Morning Atlantic Records/Warner Music Nashville/WEA March 9, 2015 #1• CHRIS JANSON / Buy Me A Boat Warner Music Nashville/WAR May 4, 2015 #3• CAM / Burning House Arista Nashville July 6, 2015 #2• GRANGER SMITH / Backroad Song Wheelhouse Records October 15, 2015 #1
"Buy Me A Boat" and "Burning House" peaked at #1 on Mediabase. "Keep Them Kisses Comin'" got to #7 on Mediabase and "Take It On Back" got to #8. Thanks much!
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Marv
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Post by Marv on Apr 9, 2016 23:23:31 GMT -5
MusicOfMyHeart-----welcome to the board and I love your screen name!
I'm as disappointed as you and lots of others are about the fact that this mesmerizing single has run out of steam instead of being in the top five where it belongs IMHO.
It"s really infuriating to put it bluntly.
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Deleted
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Post by Deleted on Apr 10, 2016 8:59:45 GMT -5
MusicOfMyHeart-----welcome to the board and I love your screen name! I'm as disappointed as you and lots of others are about the fact that this mesmerizing single has run out of steam instead of being in the top five where it belongs IMHO. It"s really infuriating to put it bluntly. Well it's not over yet for Maren. "My Church" gained 35 spins today and 300k in audience. So it appears this one is starting to be on the straight and narrow.
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